stock market sentiment & technical indicators
TRANSCRIPT
Stock Market Indicators:Fundamental, Sentiment,
& TechnicalYardeni Research, Inc.
November 5, 2013
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
November 5, 2013 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1-2Global Growth Barometer 3Economic Surprise Index 4Investors Intelligence Sentiment 5Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 6Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 7Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 8AAII Sentiment 9Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 10S&P 500 Put Call Ratio 11Volatility 12Volume 13Dow Theory 14S&P 500 Moving Averages 15-16S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma 17S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 18S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50019
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201540
60
80
100
120
140
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
10/26
YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX
S&P 500 Index
YRI Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 1.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201540
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40
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180
10/26
10/26
BOOM BUST BAROMETER vs. CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
US Boom Bust Barometer*
Consumer Comfort Index(index plus 100)
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
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Figure 2.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014250
350
450
550
650
750
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1000
1200
1400
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2000
11/5
11/5
S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES
S&P 500 Index
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 3.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014600
800
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1400
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2000
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500
400
300
200
100
10/26
11/5
S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,inverted scale)
S&P 500 Index
Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 4.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014650
850
1050
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1850
650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
1850
11/5
11/5YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500
YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1239.1)
S&P 500 Index (1763.0)
* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 5.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014600
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75
100
125
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175
200
11/5
11/5
US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE
Brent Crude Oil Price(dollars per barrel)
S&P 500 Index
Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 6.
Global Growth Barometer
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
11/5
11/5
S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
S&P 500 minus its200 day-moving average
Economic Surprise Indexyardeni.com
Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.
Figure 7.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
9
11
13
15
17
10/31
11/5
S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
Economic Surprise Index
S&P 500 Forward P/E*
yardeni.com
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup.* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Figure 8.
Economic Surprise Index
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 9.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Ratio Oct 22 2.68 Oct 29 3.19
10/29
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
Bull/Bear Ratio
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201410
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Bulls Bears Oct 15 42.3 21.6 Oct 22 49.5 18.5 Oct 29 52.6 16.5
10/29
Bulls
Bears
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20145
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
10/29
Correction Camp
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Source: Investors Intelligence.
Investors Intelligence Sentiment
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15200
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1800
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S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE
11/5
yardeni.com
Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 10.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 151000
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DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE
11/5
yardeni.com
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 11.
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15200
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S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS 11/5
yardeni.com
Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 12.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 151000
3000
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DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS
11/5
yardeni.com
Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 13.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-40
-20
0
20
40
-40
-20
0
20
40
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving AverageDivided by S&P 500
(percent)
S&P 500 INDEXLESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE
11/5
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 14.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-40
-20
0
20
40
-40
-20
0
20
40
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving AverageDivided by S&P 500
(percent)
S&P 500 INDEXLESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS
11/5
Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 15.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
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Figure 16.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
10/30
AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS
AAII Bull Ratio*
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
10/30
AAII Bull/Bear Ratio
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Latest Readings Bulls Bears Oct 23 49.2 17.6 Oct 30 45.0 21.5
10/30
Bulls
Bears
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
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AAII Sentiment
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201420
40
60
80
100
120
140
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
10/29
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)
Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index
yardeni.com
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.
Figure 17.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
10/29
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)
Consumer Comfort Index
yardeni.com
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.
Figure 18.
Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence
Page 10 / November 5, 2013 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
11/1
S&P 500 PUT/CALL(weekly data)
Average = 1.616(1996-2010)
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
11/1
S&P 500 PUT/CALL(4-week ma)
Average = 1.624(1996-2010)
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.
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Figure 20.
S&P 500 Put Call Ratio
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
10
20
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40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
11/5
VIX: S&P 500
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
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Figure 21.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
11/5
VIX: NASDAQ 100
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
yarden
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Figure 22.
Volatility
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142
4
6
8
10
12
2
4
6
8
10
12
11/1
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE WEEKLY VOLUME(billion shares, 4-week moving average)
52-week moving average
Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 23.
Volume
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142000
3000
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9000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
11/5
DOW JONES STOCK AVERAGES
Industrials (DJIA)
Transportation (DJTA)
Source: The Wall Street Journal.
yardeni.com
Figure 24.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014100
200
300
400
500
600
800
1050
1300
1550
1800
2050
2300
2550
2800
11/5
S&P 500 STOCK INDEXES
Industrials Composite*
Transportation Composite
* S&P 500 excluding Financials, Transports, and Utilities.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 25.
Dow Theory
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014600
800
1000
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2000
600
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1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
11/5
S&P 500 INDEX
S&P 500 (1763.0)
200-day moving average (1626.5)
50-day moving average (1702.7)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
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25
-45
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-15
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0
5
10
15
20
25
11/5
S&P 500 INDEX(as a percent of 200-day moving average)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
S&P 500 Moving Averages
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014600
800
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11/5
S&P 500 INDEX*
Latest price: 1762.9750-dma: 1702.66200-dma: 1626.54
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
(+) Latest price is 3.4% above the 50-dma.(+) Latest price is 7.7% above the 200-dma.
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-30
-25
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-10
-5
0
5
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15
20
25
11/1
S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICALSTHE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS50-dma relative to 200-dma (%)
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
S&P 500 Moving Averages
Page 16 / November 5, 2013 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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Figure 30.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15100
200
300
400
500600
11/5CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15125
225
325
425
525
11/5INDUSTRIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15175
275
375
475
575
11/5
CONSUMER STAPLES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15150
250
350
450
550650
11/5INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15150
300
450
600
750900
11/5ENERGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15100
150
200
250
300350
11/5MATERIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1575
175
275
375475575
11/5
FINANCIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1575
125
175
225
11/5
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15225
325
425
525
625
725
11/5HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.200-day moving average
* Ratio scale.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1575
125
175
225
275
11/5
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma
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Figure 31.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
11/5
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY % from 200-day moving average
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
11/5
INDUSTRIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-30
-15
0
15
30
11/5
CONSUMER STAPLES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-50
-25
0
25
50
11/5
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
11/5
ENERGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
11/5
MATERIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
11/5
FINANCIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
11/5
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
11/5
HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
11/5
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma
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Figure 32.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
11/5
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15.18
.20
.22
.24
.26
11/5
INDUSTRIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
11/5
CONSUMER STAPLES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
11/5
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
11/5
ENERGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15.10
.15
.20
.25
11/5
MATERIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15.1
.2
.3
.4
11/5
FINANCIALS
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
11/5
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
11/5
HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
11/5
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 500
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