Status of the German Wind Energy Market and Prospects for the Future

Claudia GrotzGerman WindEnergy Association (BWE)

EWEC 2007 in Milan, Italy

German wind market

Overview on the current political and on the market situation

Wind Energy in Germany – data 2006

Installed capacity 20,622 MW

Turbines 18,685

Electricity generation 30.5 billion kWh

Share in gross electricity consumption

5.5%

Employment 73,800

Turnover 9.25 billion Euro

Export rate 62 %

Current share of RES and Wind energy in German energy sector

Current RES share in primary energy consumption: 5.3 % (2006)

Electricity sector:

• Original German target: 12.5 % share of RES electricity until 2010; target will be reached in 2007

• Currently 11.8 % share = 72.7 TWh (end 2006)

• Wind power: 5.5 % share in gross electricity consumption

Political background

Current RES target(s) in electricity sector:

• 27 % by 2020 (BMU-Leitstudie 2007) (beginning 2007)

• „More than 27%“ Government declaration on Climate Protection (26th April)

• 25 % by 2020 (Spokesmen for Environment of the Federal States branches of the Conservative Party (CDU/CSU) (March 2007)

• Conservative party (CDU) planned general programme: 30 % RES electricity until 2020 (24th April 2007)

• 35 % by 2020 (Renewable Energy Associations)

Political atmosphere positive towards RES – IPCC reports, debate on energy dependency, German EU-presidency-fight for binding RES targets at EU-level until 2020 (…)

German wind market

Future challenges: Repowering

1995 2005

Capacity 600 kW 2300 kW

Rotor blade diameter 46 m 80 m

Hub hight 78 m 105 m

Energy yield 1.25 Mio. kWh/a 6 Mio. kWh/a

Full load hours 2,000 h/a 3,000 h/a

Average turbine:

Increase in capacity and efficiency:Development of turbine technology

Status of Repowering projects in 2006:• 235 turbines repowered ( replaced by 109 turbines) = decrease

of 54 %

• 81.65 MW replaced by 258 MW = increase of 210 %

Barriers – economical reasons and building restrictions • Repowering bonus and regulations in current EEG not sufficient

• Hight restrictions and distance recommendations do not allow to harvest full potential

Status of and Barriers for Repowering today

Effect of hight restriction:Same turbine, less energy yield!

Total hight 100 m 140 m

Capacity 2000 kW 2000 kW

Rotor blade diameter 80 m 80 m

Hub hight 60 m 100 m

Energy yield 4.4 Mio. kWh/a 6 Mio. kWh/a

Full load hours 2,200 h/a 3,000 h/a

On the same – not always the identical - area:• Half the number of turbines• 2-fold increase of capacity• 3-fold increase of electricity generation

At the same time: • Reduced rotation time• Increase of full load hours by 50 %• improved grid compatibility

Calculation – rule of thumb for Repowering

Target until 2020:

Accumulated capacity onnew and designated area: ca. 30,000 MWRepowering: ca. 15,000 MW

ca. 45,000 MW

Electricity generation: about 110 billion kWh/a (2.500 full load hours)

= 20% of German electricity consumption

Potential wind energy onshore until 2020 – provided repowering takes off

BeforeWind farm Simonsberg (Schleswig-Holstein)

After

German wind market

Future challenges: Offshore development

2,9 Mrd. Euro

2,1 Mrd. Euro

Status• 15 projects currently licensed in German North Sea (including 4 cable

connections) and 4 projects in Baltic Sea with total capacity of about5,000 MW

• 3 “near-shore” turbines installed (4.5 MW, 2.0 MW and 2.5 MW)

• No building decision for any project yet

• First German offshore wind farm: test site with 12 offshore turbines (60 MW) at Borkum West site in the North Sea (6 turbines REpower 5 M and 6 turbines Multibrid M5000); operation expected 2009

Offshore wind – current status and projections

Target German Ministry of the Environment / BMU:• 1,500 MW until 2011

• 20,000 – 25,000 MW until 2030

2,9 Mrd. Euro

2,1 Mrd. Euro

• Grid connection represents a substantial part of offshore windfarms capital cost (up to 30 %)

• New Infrastructure Planning Acceleration Act (end 2006): obligation for transmission system operators (TSOs) to bear costs for connecting offshore wind farms to the mainland grid

• Intention is also to channel the cables underground: connections to offshore wind farms will be shared by a number of projects

• New law only applies for offshore plants that will be constructed prior to 31st December 2011

• Negotiations with TSOs and project planners have started. Speed of implementation?

• Tariff: discussion about postponing planned degression of tariffs (planned for 2008)

New German offshore grid regulation

German wind market

Future challenges: Grid integration

• Production management already applied in some regions – grid expansion needs to happen more speedy

• Grid operators are obliged to expand grid

• In the meantime: demand for optimised use of grid, consideration of application of underground cable

Example for optimised grid use through overhead-line monitoring:• Depending on ambient temperature and wind speed increase of

transmission capacity up to 50 %

• Only temperature: 1 % capacity per degree (ambienttemperature / Celsius)

Grid integration – current issues

Thank your for your attention!

Claudia Grotz German WindEnergy Association (BWE)

Marienstraße 19-20D - 10117 Berlin

Tel.: +49 / (0)30 - 28482-109Fax: +49 / (0)30 - 28482-107

mailto: c.grotz@wind-energie.de