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Status of the German Wind Energy Market and Prospects for the Future
Claudia GrotzGerman WindEnergy Association (BWE)
EWEC 2007 in Milan, Italy
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German wind market
Overview on the current political and on the market situation
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Wind Energy in Germany – data 2006
Installed capacity 20,622 MW
Turbines 18,685
Electricity generation 30.5 billion kWh
Share in gross electricity consumption
5.5%
Employment 73,800
Turnover 9.25 billion Euro
Export rate 62 %
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Current share of RES and Wind energy in German energy sector
Current RES share in primary energy consumption: 5.3 % (2006)
Electricity sector:
• Original German target: 12.5 % share of RES electricity until 2010; target will be reached in 2007
• Currently 11.8 % share = 72.7 TWh (end 2006)
• Wind power: 5.5 % share in gross electricity consumption
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Political background
Current RES target(s) in electricity sector:
• 27 % by 2020 (BMU-Leitstudie 2007) (beginning 2007)
• „More than 27%“ Government declaration on Climate Protection (26th April)
• 25 % by 2020 (Spokesmen for Environment of the Federal States branches of the Conservative Party (CDU/CSU) (March 2007)
• Conservative party (CDU) planned general programme: 30 % RES electricity until 2020 (24th April 2007)
• 35 % by 2020 (Renewable Energy Associations)
Political atmosphere positive towards RES – IPCC reports, debate on energy dependency, German EU-presidency-fight for binding RES targets at EU-level until 2020 (…)
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German wind market
Future challenges: Repowering
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1995 2005
Capacity 600 kW 2300 kW
Rotor blade diameter 46 m 80 m
Hub hight 78 m 105 m
Energy yield 1.25 Mio. kWh/a 6 Mio. kWh/a
Full load hours 2,000 h/a 3,000 h/a
Average turbine:
Increase in capacity and efficiency:Development of turbine technology
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Status of Repowering projects in 2006:• 235 turbines repowered ( replaced by 109 turbines) = decrease
of 54 %
• 81.65 MW replaced by 258 MW = increase of 210 %
Barriers – economical reasons and building restrictions • Repowering bonus and regulations in current EEG not sufficient
• Hight restrictions and distance recommendations do not allow to harvest full potential
Status of and Barriers for Repowering today
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Effect of hight restriction:Same turbine, less energy yield!
Total hight 100 m 140 m
Capacity 2000 kW 2000 kW
Rotor blade diameter 80 m 80 m
Hub hight 60 m 100 m
Energy yield 4.4 Mio. kWh/a 6 Mio. kWh/a
Full load hours 2,200 h/a 3,000 h/a
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On the same – not always the identical - area:• Half the number of turbines• 2-fold increase of capacity• 3-fold increase of electricity generation
At the same time: • Reduced rotation time• Increase of full load hours by 50 %• improved grid compatibility
Calculation – rule of thumb for Repowering
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Target until 2020:
Accumulated capacity onnew and designated area: ca. 30,000 MWRepowering: ca. 15,000 MW
ca. 45,000 MW
Electricity generation: about 110 billion kWh/a (2.500 full load hours)
= 20% of German electricity consumption
Potential wind energy onshore until 2020 – provided repowering takes off
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BeforeWind farm Simonsberg (Schleswig-Holstein)
After
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German wind market
Future challenges: Offshore development
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2,9 Mrd. Euro
2,1 Mrd. Euro
Status• 15 projects currently licensed in German North Sea (including 4 cable
connections) and 4 projects in Baltic Sea with total capacity of about5,000 MW
• 3 “near-shore” turbines installed (4.5 MW, 2.0 MW and 2.5 MW)
• No building decision for any project yet
• First German offshore wind farm: test site with 12 offshore turbines (60 MW) at Borkum West site in the North Sea (6 turbines REpower 5 M and 6 turbines Multibrid M5000); operation expected 2009
Offshore wind – current status and projections
Target German Ministry of the Environment / BMU:• 1,500 MW until 2011
• 20,000 – 25,000 MW until 2030
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2,9 Mrd. Euro
2,1 Mrd. Euro
• Grid connection represents a substantial part of offshore windfarms capital cost (up to 30 %)
• New Infrastructure Planning Acceleration Act (end 2006): obligation for transmission system operators (TSOs) to bear costs for connecting offshore wind farms to the mainland grid
• Intention is also to channel the cables underground: connections to offshore wind farms will be shared by a number of projects
• New law only applies for offshore plants that will be constructed prior to 31st December 2011
• Negotiations with TSOs and project planners have started. Speed of implementation?
• Tariff: discussion about postponing planned degression of tariffs (planned for 2008)
New German offshore grid regulation
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German wind market
Future challenges: Grid integration
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• Production management already applied in some regions – grid expansion needs to happen more speedy
• Grid operators are obliged to expand grid
• In the meantime: demand for optimised use of grid, consideration of application of underground cable
Example for optimised grid use through overhead-line monitoring:• Depending on ambient temperature and wind speed increase of
transmission capacity up to 50 %
• Only temperature: 1 % capacity per degree (ambienttemperature / Celsius)
Grid integration – current issues
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Thank your for your attention!
Claudia Grotz German WindEnergy Association (BWE)
Marienstraße 19-20D - 10117 Berlin
Tel.: +49 / (0)30 - 28482-109Fax: +49 / (0)30 - 28482-107
mailto: [email protected]