status and plans for the rsa laps/mm5 implementation – july 2004 brent shaw*, john mcginley, steve...

Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5 Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5 Implementation – July 2004Implementation – July 2004

Brent Shaw*, John McGinley, Steve Albers*NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory

*In collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA),Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

29 June 2004 RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

OverviewOverview

Review of System DesignReview of Last DeliveryWork Accomplished Since 2003 TIMRecommended ScheduleIssuesDiscussion


System Design ReviewSystem Design Review Basic requirements

– New 24-h forecast every 6 hours– High spatial resolution (1 km objective)– Support launch weather operations and range safety

requirements for dispersion modeling– Integrate with display system (AWIPS)

Trades considered– Size of domain and nesting options– Forecast length vs. scale predictability– Computational resources vs. cost-benefit– Future upgrade path


Basic SolutionBasic Solution

LAPS coupled with MM5 NWP modelUse diabatic initialization (“hot start”)Utilize parallel code on Linux clusterIntegrate with AWIPS in a modular fashion


AWIPS IntegrationAWIPS Integration

AWIPSData Server AWIPS

WorkstationModeling

Server

NOAAPORT LDAD

LAPS Anal/Fcst Grids

Obs/Radar/Sat/NCEP


Hardware ConfigurationHardware Configuration Linux Cluster Modeling Server

– 1 master/8 compute nodes (18 processors)– Dual P-III 1GHz, 1GB RAM on each node– 60GB RAID array on front-end– Myrinet inter-connect

Interacts with AWIPS DS via NFS LAPS analyses and 2-h MM5 update forecast run on

master node 6-hourly MM5 and post-processing use compute nodes


LAPS Domain ConfigurationLAPS Domain Configuration Triple Nest Domain

– 97x97– 10.0/3.3/1.1 km x– 10km for Model Init– 3.3/1.1 for NowCasting

LAPS Runs – Hourly analyses– 41 Pressure levels– Runs at H+20 min– Available at H+30 min


RSA LAPS Data SourcesRSA LAPS Data SourcesNational Data (NOAAPORT SBN Feed)

– Eta (Grids 211, 212, and 215)– Regional narrowband WSR-88D reflectivity– GOES imagery (Vis, SWIR, 2 LWIR)– MDCARS– RAOBs– METARs/Ship Reports/Buoys– National Profiler Network


RSA LAPS Data SourcesRSA LAPS Data Sources

Local Data (via LDAD)– Local wideband WSR-88D (Z and Vr)– Local ASOS Observations– 50/915 MHz Wind Profilers– MiniSODAR Wind Profiles– RASS– Tower observations– AMPS Soundings– Local MM5 forecast grids


MM5 Forecast ModelMM5 Forecast Model

MM5 v3 used for RSA application– Upgraded to release 3.5 in June 2002– FSL modifications for diabatic initialization– FSL-developed runs scripts suitable for operations

Concurrent post-processing– Supports multiple output formats– Allows viewing on workstation as model runs– Hourly temporal output


MM5 Forecast ModelMM5 Forecast Model Two configurations for RSA

– “Update” run to provide first guess for LAPS Used for “downscaling” national model Runs every hour out to 2 h on master node (serial) Initialized with national first guess (Eta forecast) and

climatological SST Domain 1 (10km) only Not displayed on AWIPS

– Forecast run used for operational forecasts Diabatically intialized with LAPS Runs every 6 hours Triple nest (10/3/1.1) with forecasts out to 24/12/9


MM5 Run ConfigurationMM5 Run Configuration(Development System Config)(Development System Config)

30-second timestep MRF PBL Scheme Explicit Schultz II microphysics on all domains 2-way feedback between nests Domain 1 initialized with LAPS (diabatic) Domains 2 and 3 interpolated from parent Lateral boundaries provided by NCEP Eta


0-3 h QPF Verification0-3 h QPF VerificationIHOP 0-3 h QPF Equitable Skill Score (Event Equalized)

158 Runs from 16 May-25 June 200230172 Obs/Forecast Pairs

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Precip Threshold (in)

Equitable Skill Score

MM5 12kmMM5 12km RRWRF 12kmEta 12km

IHOP 0-3 h QPF Bias Score (Event Equalized)158 Runs from 16 May-25 Jun 2002

30172 Obs/Forecast Pairs

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00


Frequency Bias

MM5 12km

MM5 12km RR

WRF 12km

Eta 12km




0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00






0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00


Frequency Bias

MM5 12km

MM5 12km RR

WRF 12km

Eta 12km




0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00






0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00


Frequency Bias

MM5 12km

MM5 12km RRWRF 12km

Eta 12km


JAX WRF QPF VerificationJAX WRF QPF Verification

0600 UTC +3, 6, and 9-h QPF Verification, 1 Oct 03 thru 4 May 04


Vertical Level ConfigurationVertical Level Configuration

41 Levels


LAPS-MM5 Production CycleLAPS-MM5 Production Cycle

National Model Forecast(Eta via SBN)

MM5 Update Cycle (10km)

1-h Forecast for First Guess

2-9 h Forecast for IC/LBC

10-km LAPS Analysis

3.3-km LAPS Analysis

1.1-km LAPS Analysis

Hourly CycleHourly Cycle

MM5 Forecast(Every 6 h) - 10km to 24h- 3.3 to 12h- 1.1 to 9h

Observations via SBN and

LDAD

Diabatic Init. Cond.

Lateral Boundary Conditions


MM5 Forecast Run TimelineMM5 Forecast Run Timeline

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Valid Hour

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Actual Hour

All 3 Domains (2.3:1 Ratio)2 Domains (7.8:1 Ratio) 1 Domain (36:1 Ratio)

Run time based on:12 processors for model1 processor for each post job

Cape Canaveral 6-hour QPF on 1-km Grid and Radar VerificationCape Canaveral 6-hour QPF on 1-km Grid and Radar Verification9 Feb 049 Feb 04


Build HistoryBuild History

RSA LAPS/MM5 V1: Dec 2001– Initial installation at WR

RSA LAPS/MM5 V2: Aug 2002– Initial installation at ER– Included “easy” install CD, provided to LMMS

RSA LAPS/MM5 V2.1: July 2003– Delivered to LMMS on CD


Review of Last Build (V2.1)Review of Last Build (V2.1) Added new data ingest for LAPS

– Local wideband WSR-88D via AWIPS– 50 and 915 MHz wind profilers (LDAD)– RASS (LDAD)– Locally-available ASOS (LDAD)

Improved analysis components– Nighttime clouds (interaction between GOES 3.9

micron and radar data)– Merge of multiple level-II and level-III WSR-88D sites– Improved coastal gradient analyses


Review of Last Build (V2.1)Review of Last Build (V2.1)

MM5 changes in V2.1– Activated Kain-Fritsch convective

parameterization on 10 and 3.3km grids to reduce over-prediction of precipitation

– Replaced Mellor-Yamada TKE PBL with Burk-Thompson PBL scheme to improve surface temperatures


Deficiencies in Build V2.1Deficiencies in Build V2.1 LAPS vertical temperature bias

– Bug in balanced temperature retrieval– Causes over-prediction of clouds/precip

“Inferred” SST problematic– Based on 48-h average wet-bulb T from Eta – Not representative during frontal passages

TKE PBL schemes in MM5 under-predict diurnal temperature range

Microphysics require saturation in cloudy grid boxes


Accomplishments Since Accomplishments Since April 2003 TIMApril 2003 TIM

LAPS Analysis Improvements– Corrected vertical temperature bias– Improved derivation of cloud vertical velocities (CWB

collaboration)– Began testing improved balance scheme, incorporating

thermodynamic terms– Added new data ingest routines

Short and tall towers miniSODAR AMPS (NOTE: No real-time testing possible yet!)

– Numerous other miscellaneous improvements



MM5 Forecast Improvements– Implemented monthly climatological SST use

Provides better forecasts than “pseudo-SST” Provides a first guess for LAPS SST analysis

– Added TKE diagnosis to post-processor Allows use of better MRF PBL while still meeting need for

TKE field for HYPACT integration– Switched PBL scheme to MRF

Reduced surface T RMSE and bias by 1-2K– Implemented new Schultz II microphysics– Deactivated K-F cumulus parameterization



Verification Package– Surface observations vs. MM5 forecast– Requires MySQL database– Interactive query capability

Command line or web based User customization options

– Running in test mode on development system for 10-km MM5 grids

– Still testing interface scripts


Recommended ScheduleRecommended Schedule Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.0 – July 2004

– CD delivery to LMMS with installation scripts– Includes all changes discussed previously

Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.1 – Jan 2005?– Incorporate 12-km Eta (inc. hi-res SST) for lower and

lateral boundary conditions (contingent on LMMS EDS work)

– Adds AMPS and improved tower ingest– Improved balance package– Include verification package


IssuesIssues

FSL access to RTAMPS data– Needed for testing/tuning– “Canned” data insufficient unless a complete

/data/fxa case is concurrently archivedSBN data limitations

– Partially mitigated by use of climo SST– LMMS EDS project should fully mitigate


IssuesIssues

Where to run verification package– Cluster headnode not optimum

Requires another software package (MySQL) Load on headnode is already heavy Requires use log into cluster and use text-based interface

– Recommend purchasing/integrating a separate computer, with NFS mount to cluster filesystem

Run MySQL and web server on this machine Provide web access to forecasters for verification Basic PC dedicated to this task should suffice


IssuesIssues

3.3/1.1 km MM5 forecast grids– Too small to be of good forecast utility– Increasing size requires more/faster hardware

and/or reducing forecast length and/or frequency

Future of MM5– Final release of MM5 will be 3.7– Users being encouraged to migrate to WRF


IssuesIssues

Accommodation of Advanced Server 2.1– Test runs will need to be done– Fits within purview of maintenance task

Model output to AMU– Exportation of “bigfile” via ftp or LDAD– Multiple options possible


SummarySummary

July build on-track– Improved LAPS analysis with additional local

data and improved algorithms– Better forecasts from new microphysics, better

SST, and a better PBL schemeNeed to work out details of verification

package integration at rangesContinue planning for future

Discussion?Discussion?

status and plans for the rsa laps/mm5 implementation – july 2004 brent shaw*, john mcginley, steve...

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