MidSchoolMath 1

It is important for students to see that when outcomes are equally likely, the probability of an event is the number of outcomes in the event divided by the number of outcomes in the sample space. In Pirate's Prize, Patrick "Mad Dog" Snog has made a friendly wager with a fellow crew member about who will win the Pirate's Prize given out by the Captain. He is trying to figure out his chance of winning the prize, as well as the chance that a lady pirate will win the prize. The data provided is list of the crew of the Isosceles.

LESSON: PIRATE'S PRIZEWhat is the probability of Mad Dog being selected?

What is the probability of a lady pirate being selected?

Pirate's Prize

Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.

The Math SimulatorTM

ImmersionPlay Pirate's Prize Immersion video, whole-class. Restate the question: What is the probability of Mad Dog being selected? What is the probability of a lady pirate being selected?Facilitate classroom discussion; ask students: "What do we need to know?"

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2 Data & ComputationPrint the Data Artifact and distribute to students. Allow students work time. Ask students: "Does your answer make sense?"Consider using a sharing protocol leading to mathematical insights and/or highlighting misconceptions. Allow students to revise their work.

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Download the Detailed Lesson PlanAvailable on the Teacher Dashboard

3 ResolutionPlay Pirate's Prize Resolution video, whole-class. Prepare and give brief lecture (Teacher Instruction).

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+ Simulation TrainerAssign the Simulation Trainer.Use protocols that encourage students to help each other.Use Progress Monitoring to access real-time data for the classroom.Provide individual help for students who are not making progress.

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(Use student headphones.)

7.SP.C.7aStatistics & Probability

Clicker QuizLaunch the Clicker Quiz, whole-class.

MidSchoolMath 2Pirate's Prize

7.SP.C.7aStatistics & Probability

Gladys: Use tools such as bag pulls, spinners, number cubes, coins and colored clips to help students grasp the concepts presented in this standard.

Kevin: You might have students start by iden-tifying all the possible outcomes in the sample space for various events. They might organize these in a chart, table, tree diagram, etc.

Megan: Once students are comfortable with creating sample spaces, they can assign out-comes within a sample space an equal prob-ability. Remind students that the sum of their probabilities of the sample space needs to be 1 (or 100%).

KevinSimpson

GladysGraham

MeganLeBleu

Ex. Clicker Quiz #3Standard Math Procedures

Instruction at a Glance

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Count the total number of marbles.

Simplify.

14 total marbles

=

4 green marbles14 total marbles

2 Make a fraction showing the number of green marbles out of the total.

27

414

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PIRATE’S PRIZEWhat is the probability of Mad Dog being selected?What is the probability of a lady pirate being selected?

Captain Mary Read always plans a Pirate’s Prize to give away to one of the crew members of the Isosceles. She writes the names of each crew member on a slip of paper, the winner’s name to be drawn out of a bag.

Patrick “Mad Dog” Snog had determined his chances of being chosen, as well as the chances of a lady pirate being chosen.

But an unfortunate event hit the Isosceles. Scurvy. Three pirates (2 lads and 1 lady) became ill and were left at Oak Island for treatment, leaving them unable to participate in the Pirate’s Prize.

Help Mad Dog determine the new probabilities.

P(Mad Dog) =

P(lady pirate) =

7.SP.C.7a

Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, fi nd the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.

About this standard

Date PeriodName

MidSchoolMath Pirate’s Prize 1 of 2

APPLYING THE STANDARD

Raven fl ips a coin 50 times. The results are shown in the table. Based on those results, determine the probability that Raven fl ips heads and the probability that she fl ips tails.

List all the possible outcomes (or sample space) when rolling two number cubes, one red and one blue.

If the two number cubes were rolled 180 times, about how many times would you expect to see at least one number cube showing a 6?

Use the sample space to determine the following probabilities:

P(sum of 7) = P(even sum) =

P(red 2, blue 4) = P(a 4 and a 1) =

P(at least one 3) = P(sum of 13) =

The theoretical probability of fl ipping a coin indicates the coin should land on heads of the time and land on tails of the time.

Why do you think Raven’s relative frequencies don’t match up with the theoretical probabilities?

1a)

2a)

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2b)

1b)

MidSchoolMath Pirate’s Prize 2 of 2

Date PeriodName

How might this standard appear on a test?

P(heads) = P(tails) =

121

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Check out my worked example #1a

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