statistics and forecast q4 2020 - svensk vindenergi...2021-2-8 · statistics and forecast q4...
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Statistics and forecast Q4 2020
This is SWEA:s quarterly statistics and forecast for the Swedish wind
power market. The figures are produced with data from turbine
manufacturers and wind power developers acting on the market.
SWEA, Swedish Wind Energy Association - Svensk Vindenergi
2021-02-08
New turbine contracts* (firm and binding)
* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market
The market bounced back strong in Q4 2020, closing the year with strong order entry.
New contracts will add another 725 MW to be realized 2022 and 2023 (corresponding to about 2,3 TWh).
51
217275
106
248
50
221115
189
25 51 49 63160
66
273
2
635
25
1 429
220
413
403
675
1 225
114
686
661
410
102165
725
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
Q1 2
01
3
Q2 2
01
3
Q3 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
Q1 2
01
4
Q2 2
01
4
Q3 2
01
4
Q4 2
01
4
Q1 2
01
5
Q2 2
01
5
Q3 2
01
5
Q4 2
01
5
Q1 2
01
6
Q2 2
01
6
Q3 2
01
6
Q4 2
01
6
Q1 2
01
7
Q2 2
01
7
Q3 2
01
7
Q4 2
01
7
Q1 2
01
8
Q2 2
01
8
Q3 2
01
8
Q4 2
01
8
Q1 2
01
9
Q2 2
01
9
Q3 2
01
9
Q4 2
01
9
Q1 2
02
0
Q2 2
02
0
Q3 2
02
0
Q4 2
02
0
New turbine contracts [MW] Mean value last 12 month
MW
Annual comparison 2013 - 2020
- New turbine contracts* (firm and binding)
* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market.
Undisclosed orders are not always included
The market was slightly down but remained on a fairly high level for the full 2020.
New contracts of 1400 MW in total corresponding to 4,5 TWh annual normal production.
649 634
314
561
2 091
1 711
2 686
1 401
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MW
Yearly contracted 2 per. glid. med. (Yearly contracted)
Short term forecast, 2021-02-06The installed wind power capacity growth is continuing even if significant delays happend during 2020.
Towards 2024 the installed power is reaching above 16 GW. While production (TWh) and installed
capacity (GW) will increase significantly in the coming years, the number of installed turbines will remain
around 5000 - as every turbine has a ever higher yield.
* Figures based on reported firm and binding contracts from all turbine manufacturers acting on
the Swedish market. This scenario is the official short term forecast of SWEA and updated
quarterly. The long term forecast (2040) is found on the homepage of SWEA
11,5
16,615,5
17,616,4
19,5
27,0
30,6
37,8
41,7
45,3
5 6 6 7 79
10
1315
1616,8
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Nu
mb
er
of
turb
ine
s [n
]
GW
, TW
h
Annualproduction[TWh]
Cumulativecapacity [GW]
Cumulativeinstalled windturbines [n]
Comissioning 2021-2023 [GW, TWh / Price area]
* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market
Energy and capacity additions [GW and TWh] are strongly dominated by SE2 which
accounts for 65% of installations in 2021 and 51% of installations in 2022.
SE3 is increasing from 161 MW in 2020 and 252 MW in 2021 to 344 MW in 2022 with with a
predicted further increase.
.
0,86
2,64
0,66 0,52
2,75
8,45
2,12 1,68
-
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
10,00
SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4
GW
(b
lue)
an
d T
Wh
no
rmal
pro
du
ctio
n (
yello
w)
Contracted deliveries [GW] for 2021-2023 per price area
Indication of eqvivalent energyproduction [TWh]
Commissioning [MW] – massive delays during2020
* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market
** Delays depend on various reasons. E.g. windy conditions, supply chain constraints and
covid-restrictions
Time plan according to turbine manufacturers for wind power installations during year (MW)*.
Delays** in projects are influencing scheduled commissioning.
About 550 MW where delayed from 2020 leading to a record 3000 MW being scheduled for
construction in 2021.
Further delays are considered likely – which makes forecasting changeable.
2019 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q42020
(Tot)2021 2022 2023 2024
1614 132 191 141 542,8 1007 2919 1112 658 0
-570 +535 +700 +71 +0Difference since Q3 2020:
Total by the end of 2020
Turbines: 4 363
Capacity: 10 GW
Actual production: 27 TWh*
Annual normal production (estimate): 26 TWh**
Added capacity in 2021
1st quarter: - MW (to be estimated)
2nd quarter: - MW (to be estimated)
3rd quarter: - MW (to be estimated)
4th quarter: - MW (to be estimated)
Total: 2 919 MW
Total by the end of 2021 - forecast
Turbines: 5 006
Capacity: 13 GW
Actual production: 30,6 TWh***
Annual normal production (estimate): 35,2 TWh**
Installations in 2021
* Actual production is the real production and
depends on wind conditions and when
installations are made during the year.
** Annual normal production is the estimated
annual production of electricity, considering all
capacity in operation at the end of the year
produced during the whole year with normal wind
conditions.
*** Estimations for the reminder of 2021 based on
the assumption of new projects coming on line
successively and normal wind conditions
Wind power production forecast – all casesProduction is quickly doubling from 2019-levels and is now close to 30 TWh yearly.
The wind power production 2024 is likely to be between 40 and 50 TWh, depending on further addition of
contracts/ capacity.
TWh
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
High Low Ref
Evaluation of previous forecasts of annual
wind power production (base case)
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Pro
du
ction
, T
Wh
Actual
Actual (normalyear)
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
Q4 2019
Q4 2020
The graph shows previous forecasts (dots) and actual production as well as actual normal production (line). SWEA’s previous forcasts shows a solid track record.
Follow up – installed capacity [MW]The graph shows previous forecasts (dots) and actual installed wind power capacity (line).
Earlier forecasts have proven to be very close to the real development.
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Ca
pa
city,
MW
Actual
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
Q4 2019
Q4 2020
System impact from wind power capacity addition:
* Figures regarding Electricity demand/load publiched by the TSO (svk). Note that the load in
Sweden was lower in 2020 than normally, due to low industrial activity and mild weather.
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
00 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
16 GW - Installed wind power capacity beginning of 2025
9 GW - Installed wind power capacity beginning of 2020
Electricity demand [GWh/h] in
Sweden, all hours during 2020
Wind power will on hourly basis more often cover an ever bigger part of Swedens electricitydemand. Comparison load and installed wind power capacity, hourly data from 2020.
Januari Mars June October December
• The statistics are mainy based on sales figures reported by the turbine
manufacturers and project figures from project developers, combined with
official scources.
• The forecasts are based on the above figures combined with estimates
regarding future market conditions. It may differ since last quarter and yearly
production figures are based on the assumption that 50% of the capacity
added one year is available for production.
– Base case: Refer to the short term forecast. It is based on the estimation that all firm and binding
turbine contracts yet reported are realised together with some new projects. That is our assessment
of the most realistic scenario and is the official forecast.
– Low case: Assumes only projects where turbine contracts (firm and binding) have been signed will
be realized. In this scenario no further investment decisions are made. Thus, this scenario defines
the lower limit of wind power growth in Sweden.
– High case: Projects with turbine contracts (firm and binding) are realized and on top of that an
estimation that most projects considered favorable are realized.
The statistics and forecast