Statistics and forecast 2021 – Q2

This is SWEA:s quarterly statistics and forecast for the Swedish wind

power market. The figures are produced with data from turbine

manufacturers and other market participants.

SWEA, Swedish Wind Energy Association - Svensk Vindenergi

2021-07-01

New turbine contracts* (firm and binding)

* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market

New contracts from Q2 will add another 234 MW in SE3 and SE4, corresponding to about 0,8 TWh clean electricity or 2,5 B SEK investment.

In total; 1,2 GW was contracted during the first half of 2021, compared with the average of 2 GW annualy for the last years.

189

25 51 49 63

16066

273

2

635

25

1 429

220

413 403

675

1 225

114

686 661

410

102165

725

979

234

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

Q1 2

01

5

Q2 2

01

5

Q3 2

01

5

Q4 2

01

5

Q1 2

01

6

Q2 2

01

6

Q3 2

01

6

Q4 2

01

6

Q1 2

01

7

Q2 2

01

7

Q3 2

01

7

Q4 2

01

7

Q1 2

01

8

Q2 2

01

8

Q3 2

01

8

Q4 2

01

8

Q1 2

01

9

Q2 2

01

9

Q3 2

01

9

Q4 2

01

9

Q1 2

02

0

Q2 2

02

0

Q3 2

02

0

Q4 2

02

0

Q1 2

02

1

Q2 2

02

1

New turbine contracts [MW] Mean value last 12 month

MW

Turbine contracts [MW] and share of orders signed per

quarter (2016-2021)

* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market

The second and third quarter does on average represent less than 1/3 of annual orders. Most orders, 42 % are finalized and signed in Q4.

The first half of the year did on average represent 43 %* of annual orders, as a mean value over the last 5 years.

483; 27%

276; 16%

269; 15%

752; 42%

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Turbines: 4967 Pcs

Capacity: 12,8 GW

Estimated actual production Wind power 2021:*** 29,4 TWh

Annual normal production 35,2 TWh

Wind Power development 2021

* Annual normal production is the calculated

annual production if Wind Index is 100 and all

capacity are on line during a full year.

** Capacity added during a year typically

contributes with 30-40% of annual normal

production during first operational year. Turbines

might come online late in the year and the

summer is in general less windy.

*** Estimated actual production is depending on

when capacity is scheduled online and how windy

the remaining of the year is. Year 2020 had a

extraordinary high Wind Index of 114 and actual

production of 27,5 TWh.

Estimations for the reminder of 2021 are based

on the assumption that new projects comes on

line as on side ”Comissioning” and normal wind

conditions.

Capacity: 10,0 GW

Turbines: 4359 pcs

Annual normal production*: 26,3 TWh

Wind index full year 2020: 114

Actual production 2020: 27,5 TWh

Total: 2,72 GW

Turbines: 608 pcs

Annual normal production from added turbines: 8,8 TWh

1:st year contribution from turbines added 2021**: 3,1 TWh

1:st year utilisation of added capacity**: 36 %

Wind index H1 2021 93

Total by the beginning of 2021

Added capacity in 2021

Total by the end of 2021 - forecast

Short term forecast, 2021-07-01The growth is continuing and reaching its highest point 2021 with 2,7 GW annual addition. Towards 2024 the ackumulated installed

wind power is likely reaching above 17 GW, with normal year production reaching almost 50 TWh, but the number of installed turbines

will remain below 6000 - as every turbine has an ever higher yield.

[TWh]

[GW]

* Figures based on reported firm and binding contracts from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market. This scenario is the

official short term forecast of SWEA and updated quarterly. The long term forecast (2040) is found on the homepage of SWEA

11,2

16,3 15,5

17,616,6

19,8

27,529,4

38,3

45,0

49,2

5,43 6,03 6,49 6,69 7,409,06

10,05

12,77

15,2416,54

17,64

0

1000

2000

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4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Annualproduction [TWh]

Cumulativecapacity [MW]

Cumulativeinstalled windturbines [n]

pcs

Comissioning [MW] – record high scheduled comission for 2021 and 2022

* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market

** https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/06/25/2253011/0/sv/Eolus-och-Hydro-REIN-f%C3%B6rv%C3%A4rvar-

tillsammans-ett-fullt-tillst%C3%A5ndsgivet-svenskt-vindkraftsprojekt-om-260-MW.html

Time plan according to turbine manufacturers for wind power installations during year n [MW]*.

Delays/ cancellations in projects are influencing scheduled commissioning, but planned installations during 2021 and 2022 are record high

and will put total value chains on test and drive futher innovation. Further delays are considered likely.

2020 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 (Tot) 2022 2023 2024

988 297 584 570 1268 2719 2205 382 405

0 +96 -95 ** +0Difference since last quarter:

Bidding area break down of scheduled comissioning [MW]SE2 remains dominant in 2021 and 2022. For deliveries in 2023, SE3 and SE4 is in the lead, although volumes are still at low level.

SE1; 27%

SE2; 36%

SE3; 29%

SE4; 8%

Estimated Bidding-zone-area of total land area in Sweden [% of 450 000 km2]

1838

3849

2780

1581

492

1660

246

321

719

734

483

269

4

0

292

86

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4

Added 2023 (signed)

Added 2022 (signed)

Added 2021 (ongoingconstruction)

In operation end of2020

Capacity [GW], Energy [TWh] and Investment [BSEK] additions per price area 2021-2023

* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market

Energy and capacity additions [GW and TWh] are still dominated by SE2 but all new orders in Q2 2021 are made in

SE3 and SE4. Investment volumes are calculated using the key figure of 3,5 BSEK/TWh

1,22 2,39

1,02 0,68

3,89

7,66

3,27 2,16

13,61

26,82

11,44

7,57

-

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4

Contracted deliveries [GW] for 2021-2023per price area

Indication of eqvivalent energy production[TWh]

Eqvivalent Billion SEK investment

Market shares for OEMs on Swedish market:The market is characterized by high competition, with 5 major technology suppliers (OEMs) for turbine contracts: Enercon (Ger), Nordex (Ger),

General Electric (USA), Siemens Gamesa (Ger/Spa) and Vestas (Dk). Swedish subcontractors are common, both for the turbines and civil works.

Figure below is without labels, to show a mercant market with high degree of innovation and product development.

957; 20%

1086,2; 22%

1504,8; 31%

613,9; 13%

668,4; 14%

Growth share of orders in the Nordic+Baltic countries

2020-2022 [GW]

* Figures from the wind energy associations in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland

Sweden is by far the biggest market in the Nordic+Baltic region, with an annual added capacity at about 2 GW or 52 % of signed known

comissioning. The Finish market is second at about 1 GW annualy, and growing fast.

5,23 ; 52%

1,36 ; 14%

1,77 ; 18%

1,02 ; 10%

- ; 0%

0,06 ; 1% 0,21 ; 2% 0,31 ; 3%

Sweden

Norway

Finland

Denmark

Estonia

Latvia

Lituania

Poland

Wind power production forcast – all casesProduction is increasing to between 44 TWh (low) and 54 TWh (high) normal year production in 2024. This places wind power as the

second largest power supplier in Base and High scenarios, given that nuclear and hydro power remains at present levels.

The apparent trend break, and upwards skip in the curve at 2020, is due to very high winds.

TWh

0

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40

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60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

High case

Low case

Base case

Evaluation of SWEA:s previous forecasts (base case)

0,0

5,0

10,0

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20,0

25,0

30,0

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40,0

45,0

50,0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Pro

du

ctio

n, T

Wh

Actual

Actual (normalyear)

Q4 2012

Q4 2013

Q4 2014

Q4 2015

Q4 2016

Q4 2017

Q4 2018

Q4 2019

Q4 2020

Graph shows previous forecasts (dots) as well as actual real production and actual normal annual production (line). SWEA’s previous forcasts shows a solid track record.

Follow up – installed capacity [MW]Graph shows previous forecasts (dots) and actual installed wind power capacity (line). Earlier forecasts have proven to be very close

to the real development.

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Ca

pa

city,

MW

Actual

Q4 2012

Q4 2013

Q4 2014

Q4 2015

Q4 2016

Q4 2017

Q4 2018

Q4 2019

Q4 2020

• The statistics are mailny based on sales figures reported by the turbine manufacturers and project figures from

project developers combined with official scources.

• The forecasts are based on the above figures combined with estimates regarding future market conditions. It

may differ since last quarter and yearly production figures are based on the assumption that 50% of the capacity

added one year is available for production.

– Base case: Refer to the short term forecast. It is based on the estimation that all firm and binding turbine contracts yet reported are realised

together with some new projects. That is our assessment of the most realistic scenario and is the official forecast.

– Low case: Assumes only projects where turbine contracts (firm and binding) have been signed will be realized. In this scenario no further

investment decisions are made. Thus, this scenario defines the lower limit of wind power growth in Sweden.

– High case: Projects with turbine contracts (firm and binding) are realized and on top of that an estimation that most projects considered favorable

are realized.

The figures and forecast