state budget update...real estate transfer taxes are on target in nine states and above estimate in...

State Budget UpdateFall 2017

| FEB 2018

NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES © 2018

The National Conference of State Legislatures is the bipartisan organization dedicated to serving the lawmakers and staffs of the nation’s 50 states, its commonwealths and territories.

NCSL provides research, technical assistance and opportunities for policymakers to exchange ideas on the most pressing state issues, and is an effective and respected advocate for the interests of the states in the American federal system. Its objectives are:

• Improve the quality and effectiveness of state legislatures

• Promote policy innovation and communication among state legislatures

• Ensure state legislatures a strong, cohesive voice in the federal system

The conference operates from offices in Denver, Colorado and Washington, D.C.

State Budget Update Fall: 2017

NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES iii

ContentsIntroduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 1

FY 2018 Revenue Performance ......................................................................................................................... 1

Personal Income Taxes ....................................................................................................................................... 1

General Sales Taxes ............................................................................................................................................ 2

Corporate Income Taxes .................................................................................................................................... 2

Other Taxes ......................................................................................................................................................... 3

Summary of the State Fiscal Situation ............................................................................................................. 3

Appendix ............................................................................................................................................................. 5

Table 1. Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2017 ........................................................................... 5

Table 2. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Personal Income Tax .....................................7

Table 3. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: General Sales and Use ..................................9

Table 4. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Corporate Income .......................................11

Table 5. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Severance ....................................................13

Table 6. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Real Estate Transfer .....................................15

Table 7. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Other ............................................................17

NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 1

Introduction Midway through fiscal year (FY) 2018, state revenues appear to be relatively strong. This in contrast to last year when many states had to revise their forecasts downward and make due with less revenue than anticipated. Through the fall of last year, 36 states were expected to meet their latest revenue forecasts. Only four states do not anticipate meeting their revenue estimates this fis-cal year, and six states believe they will exceed their projections.

Personal income tax collections are performing relatively well through the first half of the fiscal year, with 29 states reporting collections are either on target, or exceeding estimates. Twen-ty-eight states also anticipate corporate income tax collections to be on target or above estimate. Similarly, 27 states report general sales tax revenues are on target or above estimate. At this point last year, sales tax collections were below estimate in over 20 states, compared to 14 states this year.

States that rely heavily on severance tax collections are also see-ing some positive developments. Ten states expect severance tax revenues to come in as expected, and five anticipate greater than expected revenues.

Overall, state budgets appear stable and legislative fiscal officers are cautiously optimistic.

This report highlights results from NCSL’s most recent survey of legislative fiscal officers about state tax collections and other in-dicators of state fiscal health. Tennessee and the District of Co-lumbia did not participate in the survey. Detailed tables for each section are contained in the report’s appendix.

FY 2018 Revenue PerformanceRevenues are on target in a majority of states. Thirty-six states an-ticipate meeting their revenue estimates by the end of FY 2018. Only four states—Arizona, Missouri, Montana and South Dako-ta—do not expect to meet their revenue forecasts. In Missouri, weak growth in FY 2017 put the state behind its growth estimates for FY 2018. South Dakota noted that the sluggish agriculture economy and increasing health care costs are contributing factors to its lower-than-anticipated revenues.

Six states are optimistic that they will exceed their revenue expec-tations—Florida, Idaho, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah and Virgin-ia. In Florida, activity relating to recovery efforts from Hurricane Irma are increasing state revenues.

More information on state revenue performance can be found in table 1 of the appendix.

Personal Income TaxesPersonal income taxes make up the largest share of state tax col-lections. Nine states do not levy a broad-based personal income tax, though two of these states—New Hampshire and Tennes-see—do tax interest income and dividends.

Figure 1. Revenue Outlook FY 2018

Unlikely to meet forecast

Expected to meet forecast

Likely to exceed forecast

Not available

3665

4

Figure 2. Personal Income Tax Collections FY 2018

Above estimate

On target

Below estimate

Not levied

Not available

15

1410

84


For FY 2018, personal income tax collections in the states appear relatively strong.

Personal income tax collections are on target in 14 states—Ala-bama, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kansas, Lou-isiana, Maine, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Two of those states, Hawaii and Maine, had previ-ously revised projections upward.

Another 15 states—Arkansas, California, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah, Virginia and West Virginia—are expe-riencing personal income tax collections above their estimates.

Ten states—Connecticut, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mis-souri, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Vermont and Wisconsin—are seeing personal income tax collections below their projections.

More information on personal income tax collections can be found in table 2 of the appendix.

General Sales TaxesThe second largest source of total state tax revenues are general sales and use taxes, which account for about 30 percent of state revenues on average. Five states—Alaska, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire and Oregon—do not levy a state sales tax. Mid-way through the fiscal year, general sales taxes are performing relatively well for many states.

General sales tax collections are on target in 17 states. Of those, Alabama, Nebraska and Rhode Island had revised their forecasts downward. Four states—Hawaii, Kansas, Maine and Wyoming—had revised their forecasts upward.

Ten states—California, Idaho, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin—report that sales tax revenue collections are exceeding expectations. In Tex-as, above-estimate sales tax collections are partially attributed to hurricane recovery efforts.

General sales tax collections are below estimate in 14 states—Arkansas, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia.

More information on general sales and use taxes can be found in table 3 of the appendix.

Corporate Income TaxesOn average, corporate income tax collections make up about 5 percent of state revenues. Six states—Nevada, Ohio, South Da-kota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming—do not levy a traditional corporate income tax. Like personal income taxes and sales tax collections, corporate income taxes are on target or performing above estimate for many states. However, corporate income tax-

Figure 3. General Sales and Use Tax Collections FY 2018

Above estimate

On target

Below estimate

Not levied

Not available

17

1410

55

Figure 4. Corporate Income Tax Collections FY 2018

Above estimate

On target

Below estimate

Not levied

Not available

15

1411

65


es are notoriously volatile and collections can change significantly before the end of the fiscal year.

In 15 states—Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Utah – corporate income tax collections are on target.

Fourteen states—California, Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Vermont, Virginia and West Virginia—are experiencing corporate income tax collections above pro-jections.

There are 11 states—Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oregon, South Caro-lina and Wisconsin—where corporate income taxes are below estimates.

More information on corporate income taxes can be found in table 4 of the appendix.

Other TaxesIn addition to personal income, sales and corporate income taxes, many states also levy additional taxes that can be important elements of overall state revenue. These taxes often include severance taxes, real estate transfer taxes, insurance premium taxes and taxes on gambling. Below is a look at how some of these other taxes are performing midway through FY 2018.

Severance tax collections appear to be rebounding in many of the states that levy one. Severance tax collections are on target in 10 states and above estimate in five states. Only four states are reporting collections below estimate.

Real estate transfer taxes are on target in nine states and above estimate in seven. Only two states that levy a real estate trans-fer tax are seeing collections below estimate.

The modified business tax in Nevada is on target and commercial activity tax collections in Ohio are performing above estimate.

More information on severance taxes can be found in table 5 of the appendix, real estate transfer taxes in table 6, and other taxes are available in table 7 of the appendix.

Summary of the State Fiscal SituationAs has been the case over the last few years, states are expressing some concerns about growing program spending demands and slow revenue growth, and a few states are concerned about potential budget shortfalls. However, state budgets overall appear to be stable, and many legislative fiscal officers are expressing some cautious optimism.

Colorado. The state’s economy remains among the nation’s strongest. Revenue is expected to continue to grow through the forecast period but at a slower pace than economic growth due to demographic change, among other factors. While SB17-267 alleviated some budgetary pressures, constitutional requirements, including the TABOR Amendment and the Gallagher Amendment, continue to constrain revenue and local sources of funding, while Amendment 23 (for education) and caseload growth (more generally) are requiring higher expenditures on education, health care and transportation.

Florida. Florida has experienced a disruption in its budget process related to Hurricane Irma directly and Maria indirectly (re-lated to immigration). Significant emergency expenditures were made to respond to these hurricanes and Irma has disrupted revenue collections as referenced above. The budgeting process is expected to return to normal over the next year as revenues stabilize and FEMA reimbursement is returned to the state.

Massachusetts. Significant above-benchmark tax revenue through the first half of the fiscal year is a positive sign of fiscal sta-bility for the Commonwealth. However, given weaker than expected tax returns in the second half of past recent fiscal years, we continue to monitor the situation closely, in concert with unavoidable spending obligations, and have thus far maintained our tax revenue benchmark.

Minnesota. Minnesota’s General Fund budget is in a good fiscal position. Revenue in FY 2017 was almost identical to the fore-casted amount. Fiscal year 2017 spending was under forecast and the FY 2017 balance was $265 million more than projected. That balance carries into FY 2018. In the first four months of FY 2018, revenue has been $31 million less than the forecasted amount. Minnesota also has $1.9 billion in state reserves that would help to address any potential softening of the overall budget in a future forecast.

Nebraska. The general fund balance should remain positive through most of the current fiscal year, despite reduced revenue


forecasts. Year-over-year growth is positive, but weak in comparison to long-run average growth.

New Mexico. New Mexico’s revenues declined significantly after oil and natural gas prices dropped in 2015, and the state took substantial legislative action to maintain solvency by reducing budgets, sweeping various state funds, and finding other sources of revenue. Now the state’s economy and revenues are rebounding, and preliminary reserves for FY 2017 exceeded 8 percent after projections previously fell below zero prior to solvency action.

South Carolina. All constitutionally required reserve funds are fully funded. The state is experiencing slow-ing, but steady economic growth.

South Dakota. A sluggish agriculture economy, lost sales tax revenue from online purchases, low inflation, and increased health care costs are affecting sales tax collections in FY 2018. Bright points are that housing and construction activity remains steady.

More information on state fiscal situations can be found in table 7 of the appendix.

ConclusionStates appear cautiously optimistic about their fiscal situations midway through the fiscal year. A majority of states expect to meet their revenue estimates before the end of the fiscal year, and individual tax cat-egories appear relatively strong. However, many states are still grappling with slow revenue growth and reference increasing spending demands.


AppendixTable 1. Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2017

JurisdictionUnlikely to

Meet ForecastExpected to

Meet ForecastLikely to

Exceed Forecast Comments

Alabama X

Alaska X

Arizona X Minor shortfall relative to enacted budget forecast. Based on Finance Advisory Committee forecast.

Arkansas X Current general revenue collections are 2 percent below forecast.

California X Estimates released on the same day that survey was completed.

Colorado X

Connecticut Dependent upon fourth quarter and final income tax payments.

Delaware X

District of Columbia

Florida X Due to recovery activity from Hurricane Irma.

Georgia X

Hawaii X

Idaho X We have a 3.8 percent revenue forecast and we are tracking at 4.4 percent.

Illinois X

Indiana X

Iowa X

Kansas X

Kentucky X

Louisiana X Slowly improving economy anticipated and occurring.

Maine December 2017 semi-annual revenue forecast revised general fund revenue upward for FY 2018 but downward for FY 2019.

Maryland X

Massachusetts X Currently the Department of Revenue expects tax revenues to meet benchmark projections.

Michigan X FY 2017-18 began Oct. 1, 2017. Because the state uses accrual accounting, FY 2017-18 revenues largely begin with November collections.

Minnesota X The next general fund forecast will be released Dec.5.

Mississippi X Year-to-date through October collections are $4.5 million or 0.26 percent above the Sine Die revenue estimate.

Missouri X Weaker FY 2017 growth put us behind to start FY 2018.

Montana XPersonal income tax in FY 2017 was substantially below estimate due to last quarter’s actual collections below trend. Uncertain what the last quarter of FY 2018 collections will be like.

Nebraska X Forecast revised in October. Limited time to evaluate performance.

Nevada X With only two to three months of actual collections reported, it too early to draw conclusions relative to the current forecast.

New Hampshire X

New Jersey X April income tax returns will largely determine final revenue performance compared to targets.


Table 1. Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2017

JurisdictionUnlikely to

Meet ForecastExpected to

Meet ForecastLikely to

Exceed Forecast Comments

New Mexico XRevenue tracking indicates general fund revenues are up more than $100 million compared with the last forecast, and the forecast will likely be revised up in December.

New York X

Receipts were revised Nov. 10 using receipts through September (mid-year). General fund receipts through October compared to the Enacted budget estimate (April 2017) are $328 million below estimates. However, October receipts are on target with the mid-year estimates.

North Carolina XOver 50 percent of the current gap in collections is related to higher than expected refunds. Timing of when refunds are processed can result in month-to-month fluctuations in net collections.

North Dakota X

Ohio X

Oklahoma X General revenue funds are $9.9 million above the estimate.

Oregon X

Pennsylvania X The forecast was just released on Nov. 6 due to a budget impasse.

Rhode Island X Forecast was revised November 10

South Carolina X

The South Carolina Board of Economic Advisors left the FY 2018 revenue estimate unchanged during its November meeting. However, the Board did recognize slower than forecast growth in the first quarter of the fiscal year. At the current growth rate there is potential for a shortfall of $45.7 million for FY 2018. The BEA will review the general fund estimate at its February meeting, after the holiday season, to determine if the forecast should be revised.

South Dakota XA sluggish ag economy, lost sales tax revenue from online purchases, low inflation, and increased health care costs are affecting sales tax collections in FY 2018.

Tennessee

Texas XTexas fiscal year 2018 began on Sept.r 1, 2017. Through October 2017, overall fiscal year 2018 revenues are on target. Total fiscal year 2017 revenue collections slightly exceeded estimates.

Utah X

Vermont

The personal income tax performance this month is concerning but it still feels a bit early to say if missing the mark is likely. A new forecast will be adopted in January, and a small downgrade is possible. Federal tax reform will also impact

Virginia X Fiscal year 2017 closed with $134.9 in revenues ahead of forecast.

Washington X The most recent forecast is less than a month old.

West Virginia X We sit at 99.1 percent of estimate year to date, with stronger collections in last months.

Wisconsin X

Wyoming XSince the forecast was recently revised (Oct. 24, 2017), the revenues are in line with overall expectations, recognizing numerous risks to the forecasts remain, or could develop over the balance of the fiscal year.

United States 4 36 6

Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall 2017.


Table 2. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Personal Income Tax

Revised Performance

Jurisdiction Through No Up DownAbove

Estimate On TargetBelow

Estimate Comment

Alabama Oct. x x

Alaska (N/A) Oct.

Arizona Oct. x x

Arkansas Oct. x x

California Oct. x x LAO estimates of personal income tax revenues are $2.1 billion above June 2017 budget act assumptions for 2017-18. 2016-17 estimates are lower by $149 million.

Colorado Sept. x x Federal tax reform could considerably increase revenue.

Connecticut Oct. x x Updated November consensus estimates.

Delaware Sept. x x


Florida (N/A) Oct.

Georgia Oct. x x Any forecast revisions will occur in the Amended budget.

Hawaii Oct. x x Council on Revenues projects aggregate growth. Increased FY 2018 forecast from 4.0 percent to 4.3 percent in September.

Idaho Oct. x x Ahead of forecast by $11.9 million.

Illinois Sept. x

Indiana Oct. x x Personal income tax is 0.3 percent below target. Forecast will be revised in December 2017.

Iowa Oct. x x Forecast was revised downward by 1.8 percent by October Revenue Estimating Conference.

Kansas Oct. x x

Kentucky Oct. x x

Louisiana Oct. x x

Maine Oct. x x Still “interpreting” the fiscal impact of last session’s repeal of the 3 percent surtax that had been approved in a fall 2016 citizen’s initiative.

Maryland Oct. x x

Massachusetts Nov. x x $113 million as of November returns.

Michigan Oct. x x Withholding has been below target.

Minnesota Oct. x x Income tax collections are below estimate by 0.3 percent ($42 million).

Mississippi Oct. x x

Missouri Oct. x x

Montana Oct. x x Continuing to monitor.

Nebraska Oct. x x Revised in October.

Nevada (N/A) Sept.


Table 2. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Personal Income Tax

Revised Performance



Estimate Comment

New Hampshire (N/A)

Oct.

New Jersey Oct. x x

New Mexico Sept. x x Tracking up after taxpayer reporting anomalies were identified and corrected.

New York Sept. x Receipts were revised Nov. 10tusing receipts through September (mid-year). General Fund Personal Income Tax receipts compared to the Enacted budget estimate (April 2017) are $562 million below estimates and October receipts are on target with the mid-year revised estimates.

North Carolina Sept. x x

North Dakota Oct. x x

Ohio Oct. x x

Oklahoma Oct. x x

Oregon Sept. x x FY 2018 - $36 million above estimate.

Pennsylvania Oct. x x Due to a budget impasse, which was resolved on Oct. 30, official revenue estimates were not issued until Nov. 6.

Rhode Island Oct. x x Estimates revised on Nov. 10.

South Carolina Oct. x x

South Dakota (N/A)

Oct.

Tennessee

Texas (N/A) Oct.

Utah Oct. x x

Vermont Sept. x x The forecast was made in July 2017.

Virginia Oct. x x

Washington (N/A)

Oct.

West Virginia Nov. x x At 102 percent estimate year-to-date.

Wisconsin Oct. x x Final collections often differ significantly from collections through October.

Wyoming (N/A) Sept.

Total 26 6 9 15 14 10

Key: N/A = tax not levied. Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall 2017.


Table 3. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: General Sales and Use

Revised Performance



Estimate Comment

Alabama Oct. x x

Alaska (N/A) Oct.

Arizona Oct. x x

Arkansas Oct. x x

California Oct. x x LAO estimates of sales and use tax revenues are $816 million above June 2017 budget act assumptions for 2017-18. 2016-17 estimates are also higher by $375 million.

Colorado Sept. x x


Delaware (N/A) Sept.


Florida Oct. x x Shortfall attributable to the effects of Hurricane Irma, but we anticipate that revenue will be recovered in subsequent months.



Idaho Oct. x x Ahead of forecast by $15.1 million.

Illinois Sept. x

Indiana Oct. x x Sales tax is 0.2 percent below target. Forecast will be revised in December 2017.

Iowa Oct. x x Forecast was revised downward by 2.1 percent by October Revenue Estimating Conference.

Kansas Oct. x x

Kentucky Oct. x x

Louisiana Oct. x x

Maine Oct. x x

Maryland Oct. x x


Michigan Oct. x x Sales tax above target, use tax below estimate.

Minnesota Oct. x x Sales tax collections are below estimate by 0.3 percent ($15 million).


Missouri Oct. x x Slightly below estimate.

Montana (N/A) Oct.


Nevada Sept. x x Actual collections are $1.1 million or 0.6 percent below forecast through first two months of the fiscal year.


Table 3. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: General Sales and Use

Revised Performance



Estimate Comment

New Hampshire (N/A)

Oct.

New Jersey Oct. x x

New Mexico Sept. x x Growing faster than income levels.

New York Sept. x Receipts were revised Nov. 10 using receipts through September (mid-year). General Fund Sales and Use Taxes compared to the Enacted budget estimate (April 2017) are $52 million below estimates (in addition to general sales this includes cig and alcoholic beverage receipts).



Ohio Oct. x x

Oklahoma Oct. x x

Oregon (N/A)

Pennsylvania Oct. x x

Rhode Island Oct. x x Estimates revised on Nov. 10.


South Dakota Oct. x x The governor released a revenue estimate with his budget proposal on Dec. 5.

Tennessee

Texas Oct. x x Fiscal year 2018 sales tax estimates were revised upwards in October 2017 from estimates in January 2017. Fiscal year 2018 sales tax collections are trending above target. Part of the increase results from increased purchasing related to hurricane recovery.

Utah Oct. x x

Vermont Sept. x x The forecast was made in July 2017.

Virginia Oct. x x

Washington Oct. x November forecast compared to September forecast; no tracking data available since November forecast.

West Virginia Nov. x x At 97 percent estimate year to date and over estimate in November.

Wisconsin Oct. x x

Wyoming Sept. x x The forecast for FY 2018 was recently revised upward by 2.2 percent.

United States 25 9 10 10 17 14



Table 4. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Corporate Income

Revised Performance

Jurisdiction Through No Up DownAbove Estimate On Target

Below Estimate Comment

Alabama Oct. x x

Alaska Oct. x

Arizona Oct. x x

Arkansas Oct. x x

California Oct. x x LAO estimates of corporate tax revenues are $274 million below June 2017 budget act assumptions for 2017-18. 2016-17 estimates are also lower by $208 million.

Colorado Sept. x x


Delaware Sept. x x


Florida Oct. x x Shortfall attributable to filing extension for certain taxpayers affected by Hurricane Irma.



Idaho Oct. x x Behind forecast by $6.7 million.

Illinois Sept. x

Indiana Oct. x x Corporate taxes together (corporate income, financial institutions, and utility receipts taxes) are 52.9 percent below target. Most of the deviation is attributable to corporate income tax. Forecast will be revised in December 2017.

Iowa Oct. x x Forecast was revised upward 12.7 percent by October Revenue Estimating Conference.

Kansas Oct. x x

Kentucky Oct. x x

Louisiana Oct. x x

Maine Oct. x x

Maryland Oct. x x


Michigan Oct. x x

Minnesota Oct. x x Corporate tax collections are above estimate by 1.6 percent ($20 million).


Missouri Oct. x x

Montana Oct. x x


Nevada (N/A)

New Hampshire Oct. x x Through Oct. 31, 6.1 million above estimate.


Table 4. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Corporate Income

Revised Performance

Jurisdiction Through No Up DownAbove Estimate On Target

Below Estimate Comment

New Jersey Oct. x x

New Mexico Sept. x x Tracking up, it’s but very volatile revenue source.

New York Sept. x Receipts were revised November 10th using receipts through September (mid-year). General Fund Corporate Tax receipts compared to the Enacted budget estimate (April 2017) are $120 million below estimates.



Ohio (N/A) Oct.

Oklahoma Oct. x x

Oregon Sept. x x FY 2018 - $3 million below estimate.


Rhode Island Oct. x x Estimates revised on Nov 10.


South Dakota (N/A)

Oct.

Tennessee

Texas (N/A) Oct.

Utah Oct. x x

Vermont Sept. x x May not be good news. Likely delayed refund.

Virginia Oct. x x

Washington (N/A)

Oct.

West Virginia Nov. x x At 137 percent estimate year-to-date.

Wisconsin Oct. x x Final collections often differ significantly from collections through October.

Wyoming (N/A) Sept.




Table 5. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Severance

Revised Performance



Estimate Comment

Alabama Oct. x x

Alaska Oct. A severance (or production) tax is included with royalties under “Other/Petroleum Tax”.

Arizona (N/A) Oct.

Arkansas Oct. x x

California (N/A) Oct. N/A

Colorado Sept. x x

Connecticut (N/A)

Oct.

Delaware (N/A) Sept. x

District of Columbia (N/A)

Florida Oct. x x

Georgia (N/A) Oct.

Hawaii Oct.

Idaho (N/A) Oct.

Illinois Sept.

Indiana Oct. Small revenue source and not a general fund revenue source.

Iowa (N/A) Oct.

Kansas Oct. x x

Kentucky Oct. x x

Louisiana Oct. x x

Maine (N/A) Oct.

Maryland (N/A) Oct.

Massachusetts (N/A)

Nov. x N/A

Michigan Oct. x x

Minnesota (N/A) Oct.


Missouri (N/A) Oct.

Montana Oct. x x

Nebraska (N/A) Oct.

Nevada (N/A) Sept.

New Hampshire (N/A)

Oct.

New Jersey (N/A) Oct.

New Mexico Sept. x x Tracking up with higher oil prices and production and strong land lease sales.

New York (N/A) Sept.

North Carolina (N/A)

Sept.


Table 5. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Severance

Revised Performance



Estimate Comment


Ohio Oct. Not a source of general revenue, so no forecast. Revenue has been growing strongly due to shale oil drilling.

Oklahoma Oct. x x

Oregon (N/A)

Pennsylvania (N/A)

Oct.

Rhode Island (N/A)

Oct.

South Carolina (N/A)

Oct.

South Dakota Oct. x x

Tennessee

Texas Oct. x x Fiscal year 2018 severance tax estimates were revised upwards in October 2017 from estimates in January 2017. Fiscal year 2018 severance tax collections are on target.

Utah Oct. x x

Vermont (N/A) Sept.

Virginia (N/A) Oct.

Washington Oct. Insignificant amount to general fund.

West Virginia Nov. x x At 87 percent estimate YTD but up 51 percent versus last year.

Wisconsin (N/A) Oct.

Wyoming Sept. x x The forecast for FY 2018 was recently revised upward by 1.7 percent.




Table 6. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Real Estate Transfer

Revised Performance



Estimate Comment

Alabama Oct. x x

Alaska (N/A) Oct.

Arizona (N/A) Oct.

Arkansas Oct. x x

California (N/A) Oct. N/A

Colorado (N/A) Sept.


Delaware Sept. x x


Florida Oct. x x Shortfall attributable to the effects of Hurricane Irma, but we anticipate that revenue will be recovered in subsequent months.

Georgia Oct.


Idaho (N/A) Oct.

Illinois Sept.

Indiana (N/A) Oct.

Iowa (N/A) Oct.

Kansas (N/A) Oct.

Kentucky (N/A) Oct.

Louisiana (N/A) Oct.

Maine Oct. x

Maryland Oct. x x

Massachusetts (N/A)

Nov. x N/A

Michigan Oct. x x

Minnesota Oct. x x Real estate taxes are above estimate by 3.1 percent ($4 million). This is a September number.

Mississippi (N/A) Oct. N/A

Missouri (N/A) Oct.

Montana Oct.

Nebraska (N/A) Oct.

Nevada Sept. x x

New Hampshire Oct. x x Through Oct. 31, $3.4 million below estimate.

New Jersey Oct. x x

New Mexico (N/A)

Sept.


Table 6. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Real Estate Transfer

Revised Performance



Estimate Comment

New York Sept. x Receipts were revised on Nov. 10 using receipts through September (mid-year). Real Estate Transfer Tax receipts compared to the Enacted budget estimate (April 2017) are $8 million below estimates.


North Dakota (N/A)

Oct.

Ohio Oct. Not a source of state revenue; no forecast.

Oklahoma Oct.

Oregon (N/A)


Rhode Island Oct. x x Estimates revised on Nov 10.

South Carolina Oct.

South Dakota (N/A)

Oct.

Tennessee

Texas (N/A) Oct.

Utah (N/A) Oct.

Vermont Sept. x x This is to forecast made in July 2017.

Virginia Oct. x

Washington Oct. x November forecast compared to September forecast; no tracking data available since November forecast.

West Virginia Nov. x x At 124 percent estimate year-to-date. Negligible contributor.

Wisconsin Oct. x x

Wyoming (N/A) Sept.

Total 17 4 2 7 9 2



Table 7. Performance of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Other

Jurisdiction Tax Through

Revised Performance

CommentNo Up DownAbove


Estimate

Alabama Oct.

Alaska Petroleum Taxes Oct. x Revenue forecast will be updated and released in December.

Arizona Insurance Premium Tax

Oct. x

Arkansas Oct.

California Oct.

Colorado Sept.

Connecticut Oct.

Delaware Sept.


Florida Insurance Premium Tax

Oct. x x

Georgia Oct.


Idaho Product taxes and Misc. Revenue taxes

Oct. x x Product taxes are ahead by $0.1 million and misc. revenue taxes are ahead by $1.1 million.

Illinois Sept.

Indiana Gaming Taxes Oct. x x Gaming taxes are 10.25 percent below target. Forecast will be revised in December 2017.

Iowa Misc. (Insurance, Beer, and Franchise

Oct. x x Forecast was revised downward October Revenue Estimating Conference.

Kansas Oct.

Kentucky Oct.

Louisiana Oct.

Maine Oct.

Maryland Oct.


Michigan Oct.

Minnesota Oct.

Mississippi Use Oct. x x

Missouri Oct.

Montana Oct.

Nebraska Miscellaneous Oct. x x Revised in October.




Revised Performance



Estimate

Nevada Modified Business Tax

Sept. x x No fiscal year actual collections reported yet due to quarterly reporting of the tax.

New Hampshire Oct.

New Jersey Oct.

New Mexico Sept. x

New York Sept.

North Carolina Sept.

North Dakota Oct.

Ohio Commercial Activity Tax

Oct. x x This is a gross receipts tax on general businesses. Receipts were $21.5 million (5.4 percent) above estimate through October.

Oklahoma Oct.

Oregon


Rhode Island Oct.

South Carolina All Other (Admissions, Alcohol, Bank, Beer/Wine, Corporate License, Documentary, Earnings on Investment, Insurance, Tobacco)

Oct. x x

South Dakota Oct.

Tennessee

Texas Oct. Texas fiscal year 2018 began on Sept. 1, 2017. All revenue forecasts were revised in October 2017. Through October 2017, fiscal year 2018 sales tax collections are trending above target. Remaining fiscal year 2018 collections are on target. Fiscal year 2017 revenue collections of the sales tax, oil production tax, and natural gas tax exceeded fiscal year 2017 estimates. Franchise business tax and motor vehicle sales tax collections came in below estimate during fiscal year 2017. Overall fiscal year 2017 revenue collections exceeded estimates.




Revised Performance



Estimate

Utah Oct.

Vermont Sept.

Virginia Oct.

Washington B&O and State Property

Oct. x November forecast compared to September Forecast; no tracking data available since November Forecast.

West Virginia Tobacco Tax Nov. x x At 97 percent estimate year-to-date.

Wisconsin Oct.

Wyoming Sept.



William T. Pound, Executive Director

7700 East First Place, Denver, Colorado 80230, 303-364-7700 | 444 North Capitol Street, N.W., Suite 515, Washington, D.C. 20001, 202-624-5400

www.ncsl.org

© 2018 by the National Conference of State Legislatures. All rights reserved. ISBN 1-58024-914-4

NCSL Contacts:

Erica MacKellar Senior Policy Specialist

303-856-1403 [email protected]

state budget update...real estate transfer taxes are on target in nine states and above estimate in...

Documents