st. louis regional transportation plan 2040 by east-west gateway_draft

8/6/2019 St. Louis Regional Transportation Plan 2040 by East-West Gateway_draft

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RTP 2040 3

TF

amewok1

The

Framework


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The Policy ContextEast-West Gateway Council of

Governments (The Council) is

the St. Louis regions federally

designated Metropolitan

Planning Organization (MPO).

As required by federal law, the

Council develops the long-

range Regional Transportation

Plan (RTP) every four years.

The principles and strategies

included in the RTP are carried

out through a variety of short-

range transportation plans and

programs. Chief among these

is the Transportation

Improvement Program (TIP),

which reflects short-term deci-

sions on how federal funds are

spent in the region. In effect,the TIP is used to implement

the RTP.

The Councils Board of

Directors oversees the devel-

opment of short- and long-

range transportation plans for

the region and selects the fed-erally-funded capital projects

and operational initiatives that

will best carry out the princi-

ples and strategies of the long-

range plan. The Council serves

in this capacity through certifi-

cation from the U.S. Depar-

tment of Transportation and

under joint agreements among

the states of Missouri and

Illinois and the eight counties

in the region: the city of St.

Louis, St. Charles, St. Louis,

Franklin, Jefferson, Madison,

Monroe and St. Clair counties.

All federally-funded transporta-

tion projects must be consis-

tent with the principles of the

RTP and to be included in the

TIP.

The DocumentA framework of Ten Principles

was established through an

engagement process to pro-

vide guidance on regional val-

ues and in turn guide the devel-

opment of the regions next

long range plan. The chal-

lenges outlined in Chapter 2

provide a backdrop from which

to develop a number of strate-

gies to achieve the Ten

Principles. In Chapter 3, strate-

gies are identified to imple-

ment the Ten Principles.

Chapter 4 outlines the

Transportation Investment Plan

and Chapter 5 summarizes Air

Quality Conformity. A support-

ing document is being pre-pared in conjunction with the

RTP that will serve as the next

iteration of the State of the

System report. This document

provides an evaluation of the

performance of the regions

transportation system.


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2Regional Challenges


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Regional ChallengesThe Great Recession and its

lingering societal effects are at

the forefront of national and

regional policy debate and

decision-making.

Unemployment rates remain

high, the housing market is still

recovering and governments

struggle with decreasing rev-

enues as they endeavor to

fund and deliver critical public

services. A key component to

economic recovery is access.

Ensuring access of goods to

markets and of people to

employment is critical to

improving the economic stand-

ing of the region and the social

well being of its residents. In

the not too distant future, thenation and the region will have

no choice but to deal with the

potentially negative economic

side effects of petroleum

dependence. Finally, the uncer-

tainty of future funding means

the region must address how

to pay for the maintenance and

improvement of the transporta-

tion infrastructure.

Figure 1: Rate of Unemployment 2001-2010

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

JAN01

JAN02

JAN03

JAN04

JAN05

JAN06

JAN07

JAN08

JAN09

JAN10

EWG Region

National Rate

JAN01

JAN02

JAN03

JAN04

JAN05

JAN06

JAN07

JAN08

JAN09

JAN10

Figure 2: Employed Residents, EWG Region, 2001-2010

1,000,000

1,050,000

1,100,000

1,150,000

1,200,000

1,250,000

1,300,000

1,350,000

1,400,000

Employed Residents

Labor Force

Economic Recovery andGrowthThe regions overall economic

performance, both over the

past decade and into the next,

is inherently tied to the condi-

tion of the national economy.

As the national economy fal-

ters, so does the region.

Although general parallels exist

between national and regional

trends, differences do exist.

For instance, the region was

not hit as hard by the declines

in the housing sector as other

metropolitan areas were, but

experienced a significant

impact from declines in manu-

facturing.

Employment TrendsThe impact of the recent reces-

sion on the regions unemploy-

ment rate and on the number

of employed residents is

shown in figures 1 and 2. The

highest level of employment inthe last decade was June,

2001, when 1,286,000 resi-

dents were employed. Before

the recession, employment

reached a high of 1,278,000 in

June, 2007. During the reces-

sion, employment declined to

1,159,000 in March, 2010, a

loss of more than 100,000 jobs.Some recovery was seen in the

last quarter of 2010, though

employment levels in

December, 2010 were lower

than in December, 2008 by a

margin of 60,000 jobs.


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RTP 2040 9

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The changing location of employment centers is an important

trend to follow in terms of service delivery and infrastructure

needs. Map 1 shows where jobs were lost and gained between

2002 and 2009. Map 2 shows the projected locations for job loss

and gains. The trend for shifting employment opportunities is sim-

ilar to the shift in population, losses for the core area and gains insurrounding suburbs.

Map 1: Employment Change, 2002-2009

Map 2: Employment Forecast, 2009-2040

Source: Bureau of Labor

Statistics, CurrentEmployment Statistics

CHANGE INEMPLOYMENT

Percent change, 2007-2010

A V E R A G E

H

I

G

H

ER

L

O

W

E

R

1 Austin 1.2

2 San Antonio 0.8

3 Houston -0.74 Washington DC -0.9

5 Pittsburgh -2.0

6 Oklahoma City -2.2

7 Boston -2.4

8 Dallas -2.6

9 New York -3.2

10 Baltimore -3.5

11 Nashville -3.9

12 Denver -4.0

13 Philadelphia -4.0

14 Columbus -4.1

15 Salt Lake City -4.816 Kansas City -4.9

17 St. Louis -5.0

18 Indianapolis -5.1

Average -5.2

19 Louisville -5.4

20 Milwaukee -5.8

21 Minneapolis -5.9

22 Seattle -6.0

23 Cincinnati -6.3

24 Portland -6.7

25 San Diego -6.8

26 Chicago -6.827 Charlotte -6.9

28 San Francisco -7.5

29 Cleveland -7.6

30 Atlanta -7.9

31 Memphis -8.3

32 Los Angeles -9.2

33 Miami -9.6

34 Detroit -11.7

35 Phoenix -12.0

The region was slightly above

average in terms of jobs lost

since the beginning of the

recent recession. The Council

regularly compares the region

to 34 other peer regions todetermine where we stand in

national rankings of metropoli-

tan areas. With respect to jobs

lost between 2007 and 2010,

the region ranked 17th out of

35. The region lost 5.0 percent

of its jobs in this time period;

the average change in employ-

ment for the 35 regions was

5.2 percent.


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A Changing EconomyThe dominant economic trends

in the region in recent decades

have been a loss of manufactur-

ing and a loss of corporate

headquarters. Between 1990

and 2010, manufacturing

employment fell from 206,000

to 106,000. During the same

period, employment in indus-

tries classified as service pro-

viding increased from 930,000to 1.12 million. Figure 3 illus-

trates this trend.

The auto industry and the aero-

space industry exemplify this

shift. Until the late 1980s, each

of the big three auto makers

(Ford, GM, Chrysler) had a fac-tory in St. Louis. Today, only the

GM plant in Wentzville,

Missouri remains open.

Similarly, employment in the

aerospace industry declined in

the 1990s, a result of changing

defense strategies after the end

of the cold war and a merger

between the St. Louis firm of

McDonnell-Douglas and the

Boeing Corporation. Auto and

aerospace manufacturing are

both included by the Bureau of

Labor Statistics in the trans-portation equipment manufac-

turing industry. In the St. Louis

region, employment in this

industry fell from 56,000 in

1990 to 18,000 in 2010.

Figure 3: Change in Employment by Sector

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010

Em

ploymen

tLeve

l(Year

2000=

100)

Goods Producing

Service Providing

257,000

166,000

930,000

1,123,000

Figures 4 and 5 show year over

year change in the U.S. and the

St. Louis MSA for two groups

of industrial sectors: service

providing; and manufacturing.

St. Louis has fared better thanthe rest of the nation with

respect to service sector

employment. Service employ-

ment in St. Louis rose 0.5%

between 2007 and 2008, com-

pared to 0.1% nationally.

Between 2008 and 2009, serv-

ice employment fell more

sharply in the U.S. than in St.

Louis. Finally, between 2009

and 2010, service employment

in St. Louis actually rose mod-

estly, while it continued to fall

in the rest of the country. In

terms of manufacturing,though, St. Louis has fared

worse than the rest of the

nation, showing declines

greater than the national aver-

age in each of the three time

periods.

Figure 4: Year over Year Change,Service Sector Employment,

United States and St. Louis

0.1

-2.8

-0.2

0.5

-2.3

0.3

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010

Percen

tChange

US

STL

Figure 5: Year over Year Change,

Manufacturing Employment,

United States and St. Louis

-3.4

-11.6

-2.7

-4.2

-13.4

-5.4

-16.0

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

Percen

tChange

2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010

US

STL


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Table 1: Loss of Corporate Headquarters

Corporation formerly

based in the

St. Louis region What happened

McDonnell-Douglas Merged with Boeing

Mallinckrodt Merged with Tyco

TWA Merged with American Airlines

Ralston Purina Merged with Nestl

SBC Telecommunications Moved to San Antonio

General Dynamics Moved to Washington, D.C.

May Department Stores Co. Merged with Macys

A.G. Edwards Merged with Wachovia (then Wells-Fargo)

Anheuser-Busch Merged with InBev

Another major trend affecting

the quality of jobs in the

region is the loss of corporate

headquarters. In 1990, seven

corporations headquartered in

St. Louis were in the Fortune100. Today, only one company

based in St. Louis is on this

list, ExpressScripts, which

was listed as the 96th largest

company in America in 2010.

Table 1 lists some of the

major corporate departures

over the last 20 years.


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Map 3: Population Change, 2000-2010

Map 4: Population Forecast, 2010-2040

Slow GrowingPopulationThe region has seen relatively

slow growth in recent decades.

Between 2000 and 2010, theregions population increased

by 3.5 percent, compared to

the national growth rate of 9.7

percent. In addition to sluggish

population growth, the region

also experienced a dramatic

shift in the location of its popu-

lation. Map 3 indicates the spa-

tial shift that occurred between

2000 and 2010, with a green

dot symbolizing a gain of 25

persons, and a blue dot show-

ing a similar loss. As in many

cities across the nation, the

regional core and inner-ring

suburbs lost population while

communities farther away from

the core experienced gains. A

notable exception to this trend

is that downtown St. Louis and

the area known as the Central

Corridor gained residents.

When projecting future popula-

tion shifts, computer models

indicate that residents are likely

to continue migrating from the

core to communities farther

out (see Map 4).

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RTP 2040 13

An Aging PopulationFigures 6 and 7 show project-

ed changes in age distribution

over the next 30 years.

Without a major change inmigration, the age pyramid in

2040 will be much flatter than

in 2009, reflecting an aging

population. The number of

individuals over age 65 is pro-

jected to rise from 13 percent

to 21 percent, with the fastest

growth occurring in the over-85

population.

Figure 6: Age Pyramid, 2009

150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Female

Male

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Female

Male

Figure 7: Age Pyramid, 2040

150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

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25,000commuter

s

20,000

comm

uters

18,000com

mute

rs

17,000

commu

ter

s

4,0

00

com

muters

5,00

0comm

uters

91,00

0 com

muters

2

3,000

comm

ute

rs

24,00

0comm

ute

rs

160,000

employees

live and

work

in the

core

Figure 8: Racial Disparityin the St. Louis Region, 2009

8.5

5.2

9.0 9.7

29.1

15.1

18.4 18.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Poverty Infant

Mortality

Unemployment Less than

High School

Education

Percen

to

fPopu

lation

Whites

Blacks

AccessibilityThe primary purpose of the

transportation network is to

facilitate the movement of peo-

ple and products. The healthand vitality of the region

depends directly on how well

the transportation network func-

tions. The following section

summarizes key components of

accessibility by highlighting

needs and some of the realities

of the regions transportation

network.

Commuter FlowThe primary destination of

workday commuters is the

urban core and DowntownSt. Louis. The urban core is

defined as the area within 10

miles of the Gateway Arch.

Map 5 depicts commuter flow

into the urban core from the

individual counties in the

region. In 2009, the urban core

contained about 37 percent ofthe jobs in the region. Nearly

160,000 individuals both live

and work in the urban core.

About 25,000 residents of

St. Charles County commute to

work in the urban core. Some

91,000 commute from portions

of St. Louis County that are not

within the 10 mile radius, while

about 23,000 from Jefferson

County commute into the urban

core. The Illinois portion of the

metro area contributes about

59,000 of the urban cores

workers.

Racial and economicdisparitySt. Louis is predominantly a bi-

racial region, with non-hispanic

whites accounting for 73 per-

cent of the population, non-his-

panic blacks for 20 percent, and

Hispanics, Asians and individu-

als of other national origin com-

prising the remainder of the

region's population. Figure 8

shows that racial disparity is a

challenge for the region. Thepoverty rate for blacks is more

than three times the white

poverty rate. Serious gaps also

exist with respect to infant mor-

tality, unemployment and edu-

cational attainment.

Figures such as these givecause for us to consider the

extent to which access, or lack

of access, to employment may

contribute to the continuing gap

associated with these indica-

tors. An analysis of employ-

ment availability and the con-

straints related to accessing

employment follows.

Map 5: Commuter Flow


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Zero Vehicle HouseholdsDespite the dominance of sin-

gle-occupancy vehicular travel,

there are about 78,000 house-

holds in the region (making upabout 7 percent of all house-

holds) that do not have access

to a vehicle. Map 6 shows

approximate locations of these

households. Although the

majority of Zero Vehicle

Households are located in the

city of St. Louis, there are many

others scattered across the

region. Of the 78,000 house-

holds, approximately 62,000 of

them are within the service area

of the two regional transit

districts.

Single OccupancyVehicles (SOV)More than 80 percent of St.

Louisans get to work in a sin-

gle-occupancy vehicle, while

another 9 percent carpool. The

other 10 percent of workers aresplit fairly evenly between tran-

sit users, those who work at

home, and those who use other

means of transportation such

as walking or biking. Figure 9

illustrates how trips to work are

distributed.

Figure 9: Means of

Transportation to Work, EWG Region

Other

3%

Work at Home

4%

Drove Alone

81%

Carpool

9%

Transit

3%

One dot = 25

Map 6: Zero Vehicle Households


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Map 8: Job Accessibility by Transit

Map 7: Job Accessibility by AutomobileResidents access to work is

dictated by the automobile ori-

entation of the region. Maps 7

and 8 illustrate differences in

access to employment oppor-

tunities when using the auto-mobile versus public transit.

Map 7 shows that some

employment is available in all

parts of the region within a 45

minute travel time when a

worker has access to a car.

Additionally, most residents

who live in the urban core can

get to a job almost anywhere

in the region within 45 min-

utes. Conversely, access to

jobs is limited when a resident

has no vehicle and must use

public transportation. Map 8

illustrates that only a fractionof the regions jobs are acces-

sible by transit within a one-

hour travel time. Those jobs

are only in a small portion of

the region where transit is

available.


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Energy and Land UseGas PricesAfter a long period of price sta-

bility in the 1990s, gasolineprices have entered a period of

volatility over the last decade.

While it is impossible to predict

future price levels, continued

price increases and volatility

could affect how much people

drive, demand for public trans-

portation and settlement pat-

terns. More than public con-

cern over the environment, the

price of gasoline will drive the

demand for development of

vehicles that run on alternative

fuels and the infrastructure that

will be needed to supply the

various fuels. Figure 8 shows

the trend in price of gas in the

region over the last 20 years.

Climate ChangeClimate change poses at least

two significant challenges.First, as the Environmental

Protection Agency moves to

regulate carbon dioxide under

the Clean Air Act, regions may

be induced to consider green-

house gas emissions in trans-

portation planning. Although it

is not clear how the regulatory

environment will affect the

Councils responsibilities, policy

discussions in this area require

close monitoring.

Second, the 2009 National

Climate Assessment (NCA)notes that changes in tempera-

ture and precipitation will pose

challenges for transportation

systems. According to the

NCA, flooding from increasing-

ly intense downpours will

increase the risk of disruptions

and delays in air, rail, and roadtransportation. ... The increase

in extreme heat will limit some

transportation operations and

cause pavement and track

damage. Again, despite uncer-

tainties, these trends will

require ongoing monitoring and

analysis.

Figure 8 - Gasoline Prices

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

Price

inDo

llars


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Land UseAs the employment and popu-

lation data has indicated, the

concentration of jobs and

housing has shifted beyondthe urban core. Land develop-

ment characteristics have fol-

lowed suit with the urbanized

area of the region reaching far

into counties surrounding the

City of St. Louis and St. Louis

County. The Council uses a

tool called the Land Use

Evolution and Impact

Assessment Model (LEAM) to

identify the changes in land

development that could occur

as a result of future transporta-

tion investments. Map x shows

the change in land develop-

ment that could occur as a

result of the implementation of

the projects in RTP 2040. The

Council and its planning part-

ners are using LEAM to ana-

lyze the ecological impact of

transportation investments and

explore options for mitigatingconstruction impacts, particu-

larly in wetlands.


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Financial OutlookIn 2008 the bipartisan National

Surface Transportation Policy

and Revenue Study Commission

issued a report, Transportationfor Tomorrow, that evaluated the

state of the nations transporta-

tion system and proposed a

plan to ensure a viable, sustain-

able system into the future. The

Commission concluded that the

system is deteriorating, both

physically and operationally, and

that an alarming gap exists

between what is being spent

and what needs to be spent.

According to the commissions

estimate, all levels of govern-

ment should be spending $225

to $340 billion a year over the

next five decades to improve

the transportation systems con-

dition and performance. Those

figures compare to an actual

spending level of $86 billion,

creating an annual funding gap

of $139 to $254 billion a year

nationally.

To close that gap, the commis-

sion recommended a series of

actions. In the short-term it pro-

posed increasing the federal

fuel tax by 25-40 cents per

gallon, indexing that tax to infla-

tion rates, and instituting other

federal user fees. Middle term

recommendations focused on

tolls and congestion pricing,

public-private partnerships, and

increases in state and localtaxes and fees. Recognizing

problems with continued

reliance on motor fuel taxes, the

commission proposed making a

transition over the longer term

to a vehicle miles traveled fee

or some other fuel tax alterna-

tive.

In forecasting the St. Louis

regions capacity to finance

future transportation improve-

ments, a number of assump-

tions were made about the

growth of federal, state, and

local revenues. Given current

economic and political realities,

some of those assumptions,

although modest, may be con-

sidered optimistic. For example,

it is assumed that federal fund-

ing programs will experience

some growth. Despite the com-missions recommendations,

any increase in federal funding

is far from certain.

The current federal transporta-

tion legislation expired in

September 2009 and has been

extended by continuing resolu-

tions through September 2011.

Dialogue over the shape and

scope of the next federal pro-

gram continue. While the

Obama administration has pro-posed a framework that would

significantly increase federal

transportation spending, the

House version could end up

reducing expenditure levels. The

outcome of this Washington

debate is critical for the

St. Louis region. Without an

increase in federal funding, it is

unlikely that the region will have

the financial capacity to ade-

quately maintain existing high-

way and transit assets.


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Fue

S

aege

3Future Strategies


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4Transportation

Investment Plan


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T bl 8 I P i i i


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RTP 2040 29

Table 8: Investment Priorities

Projects funded within the regions financial constraint

(year of expenditure dollars, millions)

Period:2012-2020PROJECT/CORRIDOR SPONSOR DESCRIPTION COUNTY LOCATION COST (YOE)Preservation/Operations IDOT/MoDOT Maintenance/rehabilitation/operational improvements Multicounty Regionwide $1,480

Transit Operations Metro Maintain existing transit system Multicounty St. Louis/St. Louis City/St. Clair $3,862

IL 159 (Phase III) IDOT Widen roadway; improve intersections Madison Beltline to Johnson $20

Alton-Godfrey Exp (partial) IDOT Construct new road Madison US 67 to IL-255 $80

IL 3 IDOT Add lanes Monroe N Market to S Market $26

MO N (TIP) MoDOT Construct new roadway (Page Avenue Ext., Phase III) St. Charles MO 94 to I-64 $100

I-64/US 40 (TIP) MoDOT Construct new bridge (replacement) St. Charles/ St. Louis Missouri River $122

I-44 (TIP) MoDOT Revise interchange St. Louis I-44 at MO 141 $10

MO 115 (TIP) MoDOT Upgrade roadway and intersections (Great Streets) St. Louis Campus Drive to MO U $9

I-64/US 40 (TIP) MoDOT Upgrade Interstate and outer roads St. Louis I-270 to MO 141 $21

NOR I-270 (TIP) MoDOT Construct roundabout at outer rd.; slip ramp to WB I-270 St. Louis Municipal to Bellefontaine $2

I-70 (TIP) MoDOT Revise interchange St. Louis City PSB ramps at I-55/70 $60

I-70 (TIP) MoDOT Modify I-70 and Memorial Dr. for Arch project St. Louis City PSB to MRB $60

MO 47 MoDOT Construct new bridge (replacement) Franklin Missouri River (Washington, MO) $57

MO 94 MoDOT Upgrade road (safety improvements) St. Charles Defiance to Augusta $6

I-270 (partial) MoDOT Upgrade Interstate, interchanges, and outer rds. St. Louis McDonnell to MO 367 $150

I-70 MoDOT Revise MO U interchange/Interstate modifications St. Louis Bermuda to Goodfellow $14

MO 141 MoDOT Construct pedestrian bridges St. Louis Meramec River and BNSF RR $4

MO 100 (partial) MoDOT Upgrade roadway and intersections (Great Streets) St. Louis MO 141 to MO 109 $28

Tanpao

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Table 10: Recommended Corridor Studies


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32 RTP 2040

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Table 10: Recommended Corridor Studies

TIER IPROJECT/CORRIDOR SPONSOR DESCRIPTION COUNTY LOCATIONI-270 IDOT/MoDOT Corridor and Bridge Study Madison/St. Louis City & Co. Mo 367 to Mississippi River

I-70 MoDOT Corridor Study St. Charles w/o MO K to I-64/US 61

US 50 IDOT Corridor Study St. Clair Lebanon Bypass

I-70 MoDOT Interchange and Corridor Study St. Louis I-270 to I-170/Hanley

I-270 MoDOT Corridor Study St. Louis MO 100 to MO 30

I-44 MoDOT Corridor Study St. Louis City I-55 to City Limits

I-55 MoDOT Interchange and Corridor Study St. Louis City PSB to City Limits

I-44, I-55, I-64, I-70 MoDOT Noise Study St. Louis City Within City Limits

TIER III-44 MoDOT Interchange and Corridor Study Franklin Mo O to Shawneetown Ford

MO 100 MoDOT Corridor Study Franklin High to Vossbrink

US 61/67 MoDOT Corridor Study Jefferson McNutt to MO A

US 67 MoDOT Corridor Study Jefferson I-55 to St. Francois Co.

MO 30 MoDOT Corridor Study Jefferson St. Louis Co. to MO MM

MO 141 MoDOT Corridor Study Jefferson/St. Louis MO 30 to I-55

MetroLink Extension MCT Alternatives Analysis Madison Existing MetroLink to Tri-Cities

Gateway Connector IDOT Corridor Study Madison, Monroe, St. Clair Troy to Columbia

I-64/US 40 MoDOT Corridor Study St. Charles MO K to I-70

US 61/67 MoDOT Corridor Study St. Charles MO A to Lincoln Co.

MO 94 MoDOT Corridor Study St. Charles MO D to Mid-Rivers Mall Dr.

MO 94 MoDOT Corridor Study St. Charles Mo 364 to I-70

I-170 MoDOT Corridor Study St. Louis MO D to I-64

US 67 MoDOT Corridor Study St. Louis I-270 to MO AC

Us 67 MoDOT Corridor Study St. Louis I-70 to Page


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RTP 2040 33

AC

omity

5Air Quality Conformity


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The primary purpose of the Air Quality Conformity


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RTP 2040 35

conformity process is to ensure

that predicted future mobile

emissions resulting from

planned and programmed trans-

portation projects (the Action

scenario) fall below the 2014

emission budget levels set out in

the maintenance plans for both

VOC and NOx.

The Missouri annual PM2.5 SIP

has been submitted to USEPA.

Illinois is in the process of com-

pleting its annual PM2.5 SIP for

submittal to USEPA. USEPA

approval is required for all SIPs.

Motor vehicle emissions budg-

ets contained in a submitted SIP

may be used as a basis for

Conformity Determination find-

ings before the SIP is formally

approved, provided USEPA has

issued a specific Finding of

Adequacy. The principal step is

to demonstrate, for the selected

analysis years, that the predicted

future mobile emissions result-

ing from planned and pro-

grammed transportation projects

(Action scenario) is less than the

combined 2002 baseline emis-

sions inventories developed by

Missouri and Illinois for the

entire PM2.5 non-attainment area.

These limits are set out as an

emissions budget. Since the St.

Louis area is in non-attainment

of the annual PM2.5 standard,

annual emissions are to be used.

DeterminationOZONEFederal and state regulations

require that projects included intheRegional Transportation Plan

2040 (including the FY 2012-

2015 TIP) must pass the follow-

ing emissions test for each of

four analysis years, 2014, 2020,

2030 and 2040:

Emissions of VOC resultingfrom the plans 2014, 2020,

2030 and 2040 implementa-

tion will be less than the 2014

budgets in the maintenance

plans, i.e. 47.14 tons per day

in Missouri and 13.44 in

Illinois (See Tables 5-1).

Emissions of NOx resulting

from the plans 2014, 2020,

2030 and 2040 implementa-

tion will be less than the 2014

budgets in the maintenance

plans, i.e. 68.59 tons per day

in Missouri and 31.94 tons per

day in Illinois (See Table 5-2).

Based on the conformity analy-

sis for ozone conducted as part

of the long-range plan develop-

ment, as shown in the following

tables, the projects and pro-

grams included in heRegional

Transportation Plan 2040 (includ-

ing the FY 2012-2015 TIP) are

AC

omity

found to be in conformity with


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36 RTP 2040

ACComity

the requirements of the Clean

Air Act Amendments of 1990,

the relevant sections of the

Final Conformity Rule 40 CFR

Part 93, and the Missouri StateConformity Regulations 10 CSR

10-5.480. The finding is docu-

mented in companion report,

Air Quality Conformity

Determination and

Documentation (8-Hour &

PM2.5) for the 2040 Regional

Transportation Plan and 2012-2015 Transportation

Improvement Program.

Jersey County in Illinois is not

included in the East-West

Gateway region but is included

in the eight-hour ozone non-

attainment area for St. Louis.IDOT is the lead agency in over-

seeing the conformity determi-

nation process for Jersey

County. Mobile source emission

estimates for the County which

have been included in the over-

all emissions analysis and

resulting tests can be found in

Appendix H of the companion

report,Air Quality Conformity

Determination and

Documentation (8-Hour &

PM2.5) for the 2040 Regional

Transportation Plan and 2012-

2015 TransportationImprovement Program.

Table 5-1Conformity Test - Volatile Organic Compounds

Based on Conformity Requirements for

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Standard (US tons per day)

ANALYSIS YEAR MISSOURI ILLINOISEMISSIONS BUDGET EMISSIONS BUDGET

2014 34.20 47.14 10.48 13.44

2020 22.86 47.14 7.19 13.44

2030 20.91 47.14 6.40 13.44

2040 21.58 47.14 6.69 13.44

All tests have been passed for all years.

Table 5-2 Conformity Test - Nitrogen Oxides

Based on Conformity Requirements for

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Standard (US tons per day)

ANALYSIS YEAR MISSOURI ILLINOISEMISSIONS BUDGET EMISSIONS BUDGET

2014 51.79 68.59 16.17 31.94

2020 21.10 68.59 8.83 31.94

2030 19.22 68.59 5.68 31.94

2040 19.45 68.59 5.61 31.94

All tests have been passed for all years.


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EAST-WEST GATEWAYCouncil of Governments

Creating Solutions Across Jurisdictional Boundaries

Gateway TowerOne Memorial Drive, Suite 1600

St. Louis, MO 63102-2451

314-421-4220

618-274-2750

www.ewgateway.org

st. louis regional transportation plan 2040 by east-west gateway_draft

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