spc may 28, 2015 2000 utc day 1 convective outlook
TRANSCRIPT
SPC May 28, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Day 2 Outlook
May 28, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookUpdated: Thu May 28 19:32:18 UTC 2015 (PrintVersion | | )Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 281932
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NJ...SE NY
AND NEW ENGLAND...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS...OZARKS...ARKLATEX...LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
PA...NJ...SE NY AND NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHER
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE
FIRST CHANGE IS TO CONFINE THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY TO
AREAS OF WEST TX AND SE NM COVERED BY TORNADO WATCH 234. ALTHOUGH A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX
PANHANDLE...THIS THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND ASSOCIATED WITH
NON-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. THE 2 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SOUTH TX WHERE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. ANOTHER CHANGE TO
THE OUTLOOK IS TO ADD A 30 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY FROM NEAR
LUBBOCK EWD ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. AN MCS IS ORGANIZING
ACROSS WEST TX AND SHORT-TERM MODELS DEVELOP A BOWING LINE SEGMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FROM PARTS OF VT...SE NY AND ERN PA WHERE THE AIRMASS IS
DRYING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FINAL CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO
REMOVE THE 2 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
..BROYLES.. 05/28/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING...COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS -- BOTH CONVECTIVE AND SYNOPTIC -- WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES TODAY...WITH A
SIMILARLY BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WLYS AFFECTING THE
CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES/CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM...
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE E...WHILE STILL FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES SERN CANADA AND THE
ADJACENT NERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE FEATURE.
FARTHER W...A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES/OUTFLOWS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM KS SWD TO TX.
...WRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
A VERY COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL SRN
PLAINS VICINITY TODAY...AS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ONGOING STORMS
PERSIST ATTM...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS KS/OK/TX. A LARGE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CROSSING THE ERN OK VICINITY HAS TEMPORARILY
STABILIZED THE AIRMASS OVER OK...BUT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN POCKETS OF STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR. ONE PARTICULAR AREA OF
ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN HALF OF
TX...PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM ONGOING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY VOLATILE AIRMASS LIKELY TO EVOLVE IN AREAS
WHERE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT -- FEATURING
30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS SPREADING ATOP GENERALLY SELY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS -- WILL SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS.
ALONG WITH RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX. A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY IN
VORTICITY-RICH AREAS NEAR AND N OF NWRN/WRN TX CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MOST BACKED.
WITH TIME...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE
MCS...WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ALONG WITH ONGOING
SEVERE THREAT.
SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED NWD INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WHERE A SLIGHTLY LESS
UNSTABLE/SLIGHTLY LESS-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED.
STILL...STORMS DEVELOPING INVOF THE ADVANCING TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS LOCALLY.
...NEW ENGLAND INTO SERN NY/NWRN PA/NRN NJ...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING FROM WRN AND CENTRAL ME SWWD
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RISK AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. DESTABILIZATION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
AREA HAS PUSHED MIXED-LAYER CAPE INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AT
MIDDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO
SUPPORT THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE INCREASE.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA /40 TO 50 KT
WSWLYS INDICATED AT MID LEVELS PER VWP AND RAOB DATA/ ON THE SRN
SIDE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN QUEBEC
VICINITY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION -- MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS BUT ALSO WITH POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION
IN STRONGER CELLS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER
STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE FRONT -- LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
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May 28, 2015
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