NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed (SPC, OUN, NSSL)

• Objectives– Advance the science of weather forecasting and prediction of severe convective

weather – Enhance collaboration between researchers and forecasters on topics of mutual

interest through real-time forecasting and evaluation activities during active severe weather

– Provide for efficient testing and subsequent delivery of program results to NWS operations

Disciplined Collaboration to Advance Forecast Operations

Primary Objectives of EFP Spring Experiment 2008(Experimental Forecast Program)

• Test and refine a real-time, large domain convection-allowing Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF)

• Explore the relative impact of assimilating radar reflectivity and velocity data into SSEF members

• Determine strengths and limitations of the ensemble configuration

•Test ways to extract information from the SSEF and deterministic WRF models

•Develop product display techniques that provide forecasters with probabilistic guidance

•Transfer SSEF guidance products to SPC forecaster workstations

•Assess the utility of high resolution convection-allowing deterministic WRF models

•Explore relationship between model forecasts of convective storms and the mesoscale environment

•Test the NCAR-WRF-3DVAR data assimilation system

•Test new objective verification measures

• Provide focused feedback to model developers on performance severe thunderstorm episodes

Primary Objectives of EWP Spring Experiment 2008(Experimental Warning Program)

•Operational evaluation of the phased array radar (PAR)

•Operational evaluation of networked 3-cm radars (CASA) in Central Oklahoma

•Operational evaluation of experimental high temporal and spatial resolution gridded hazard information (a.k.a. gridded probabilistic warnings)

CAPS 4-km 10-member ensemble Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center

CAPS 2-km run Sensitivity to horizontal grid spacing

3 Separate WRF forecasts (Different Model Physics)NCAR 3-kmEMC 4-kmNSSL 4-km

Slightly Different Domains

CAPS 4-km domain for Ensemble

2007 & 2008 HWT Experimental Forecast Program (EFP)

4km NCAR WRF 4.5 km NMM WRF

2 km CAPS WRF RADAR VERIFICATION

Probability of a Linear Configuration of Thunderstorms (e.g., a Squall Line)

Simulated Reflectivity Cores (> 40 dBz) from

Different Ensemble Members.

NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBEDSPC-NSSL Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) Spring Experiment

• FY-1996: Winter Weather Short Term Forecasts (NSSL, WFO OUN)– ARPS Evaluation (NSSL, CAPS, WFO OUN)

• FY-1997: Winter Short Term Advisories (NSSL, WFO OUN)– SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX)

• FY-1998: Fire Weather– SAMEX - ensemble forecasting (NSSL, EMC, CAPS ...)– MEaPRS - MCS, Dual Polarity Radar, Electrification (NSSL, NCAR, etc.)– SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX)

• FY-1999: Fire Weather (NSSL)– SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX)– Probabilistic Convective Outlook (NSSL)– STEP - cloud electrification in Kansas (NSSL, OU, NCAR)

• FY-2000: Convective Initiation (NSSL, FSL, EMC)• FY-2001: Watch Lead Time (NSSL, FSL, EMC, ISU)

– PTEX - precipitation type (NSSL, HPC)• FY-2002: IHOP- impact of moisture pattern on convective development (NSSL, etc)

– Operational & Experimental NWP Evaluation (NSSL, EMC, FSL)• FY-2003: Operational use of Short Range Ensembles (NSSL, FSL, EMC, BMO ... )• FY-2004: Use of High resolution WRF Model (NSSL, CAPS, NCAR, EMC, FSL)• FY-2005: Three Ultra-High Resolution WRF to see Storm Structure (NSSL, CAPS, EMC,NCAR)

– Operational Hi-RES WRF Window WRF in 2005• FY-2006 Operational Test and Evaluation of β-version WRF (NSSL)• FY-2007 and 2008 10-member Ensemble of Cloud Resolving Models (CAPS)

NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBEDOUN-NSSL Experimental Warning Program (EWP) Experiment

• FY-1979 thru 1990: Many Joint Projects including– NEXRAD IOT&E II , JDOP, DOPLIGHT, COPS, MAPS, QED, STORMTIPE

• FY 1991- thru 1995: Modernization and Risk Reduction Project (FSL)– Experimental Forecast Facility

• FY-1994: VORTEX (NSSL, NSSFC)– Nowcast and Forecast Support

• FY-1996 thru 2001: WDSS Operational test and evaluation (NSSL)• FY-2001: Weather Event Simulator (WES) Field Test (WDTB, FSL, SRH)• FY-2002: Advanced AWIPS prototype project. (SRH) • FY-2002 thru 2005: Operational test and evaluation of WDSS II radar display workstation. (NSSL)

– Establish operational utility of Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR)– Test 4D base radar data analysis tool with interactive dynamic cross-sections and CAPPIs

• FY-2003: JPOLE (NSSL), Enhanced Graphical Hazard Depiction (FSL) – Establish operational utility of polarimetric base moments and derived rainfall estimates– Refine FX-Connect application to construct graphical weather hazard graphics on AWIPS

• FY-2004: Develop Situation Awareness (SA) Display System (WDTB)– First NWS SA Display

• FY-2005: Polarimetric radar sensitivity (FSL); multi-sensor Severe Weather Algorithm (NSSL)– operational impact of 3 dB sensitivity loss compared to WSR-88D– new hail diagnosis, “rotation tracks”, and 3D Lightning Mapping

• FY-2006 thru 2008 Impact of Potential New Systems (12-15 out-of-town forecasters) – Assess phased array radar, CASA 3cm radar network, gridded probabilistic warnings

HWT Growth Potential

www.spc.noaa.govwww.srh.noaa.gov

/ounwww.nssl.noaa.go

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