PowerPoint Presentation

Space Weather Impacts on Critical Infrastructure

OECD 9 December 2015

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Impacts on technologyWhat is space weatherExtreme space weatherThe National Space Weather StrategyOverview

Severe Space Weather Societal and Economic Impacts

3Our concern is well founded.

Our Nation depends on reliable access to advanced technologies, such as GPS and satellite communications, and the operations of this technology infrastructure requires a stable energy distribution network.

And while this very technology has reduced our risk to many kinds of natural disasters, we have introduced a new vulnerability by our dependence on these systems for almost everything we do today.

With the global nature of space weather storms, no other natural occurring phenomenon has the potential to be so far reaching in its impact to mankind.

March 2012

7 March 2012: INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight.

Space Weather Impacts 4 Nov 20155

Flights disappeared from radar screens in Swedish air traffic control towers during the blackout, which lasted about an hour

Transformer damage

Failures of GPS based positioning

Numerous Polar flights reroutedNOTAMRoute restrictions due to geomagnetic storm impact on communicationsLoss of Japans ADEOS II satellite18 of 34 NASA Earth and Space Science Missions impacted Flare damages Mars Odyssey probeNumerous anomalies on FedSat and other Australian satellitesSolar cell damage on ESAs Smart-1 satellitePowerdown of Canadian robotic arm on ISSOilfield services company reported several cases of survey Instrument Interference around world

C.R. Luigs drill ship, loses GPS, resorts to backup systems

SatComm and HF outages

Nuclear power plants reduced power due to geomagnetic storm Widespread HF outage over African continent

SatComm and HF outagesOver 130 hours of HF communication blackout in Antarctic Japans Data Relay Test Satellite went into safe mode, and took over a week to recover

Global Threat Global Impact: Oct 2003

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Impacts on technologyWhat is space weatherExtreme space weatherThe National Space Weather Strategy

Magnetosphere

Energetic Charged ParticlesElectromagneticRadiationWhat is space WeatherSpace weather refers to the variable conditions on the Sun and in space that can influence performance and reliability of space and ground-based technological systems, and endanger life or health.Ionosphere

Magnetic Field(Magnetized Plasma)

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Geomagnetic StormsCoronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic storms

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Geomagnetic Storm Impacts

Manned Spaceflight

Power Grid OperationsImpacts from geomagnetic storms are wide-ranging with potentially significant consequences.

GPSSatellite Operations

Aircraft Operations

Rail

Impacts on Electric Power Grid CME impacts Earths magnetic field

Fluctuations generate electric fields on Earth. These geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) can flow into power lines and transformers

Leads to transformer saturation and over-heating, voltage drops, transformer damage, grid collapse

Vulnerability of US grid

Northern latitude (location of aurora during geomagnetic storms) Areas of relatively high resistive igneous rock Very high voltage interconnected transmission network Proximity to oceans (conductivity of ocean salt water)

Transformer winding failure

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Impacts on technologyWhat is space weatherExtreme space weatherThe National Space Weather StrategyOverview

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Extreme Events: Carrington Sep 1-2, 1859

Visible Aurora, Sep 2

All our exchanges, from the northern coast of the Island of Cuba gave glowing descriptions of the Aurora Borealis - as bright in the tropics as in the northern zones New Orleans Daily Picayune, September 7, 1859

18 hours later

US population at risk of extended power outage: 20-40 milDuration: 16 days to 1-2 yearsEconomic cost: $0.6-2.6 trillion USDHighest Risk: DC-NYC corridorGulf Coast states, including Florida, identified as a "high risk" area.

Lloyds Report (21 May 2013): Solar Storm Risk to the North American Electric Gridwww.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/risk-insight

Assessing the Risk

Image courtesy of NASA, Original by Metatech Corp100 Year Geomagnetic Storm Impact Electrojet at 50 north latitude.

Image courtesy of Metatech Corp100 Year Geomagnetic Storm Impact Electrojet at 45 north latitude.

The most likely worst-case system impacts from a severe GMD event . . . is voltage instability. . . .

NERC recognizes that other studies have indicated a severe GMD event would result in the failure of a large number of EHV transformers . . . this report does not support that conclusion. . . .

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A coronal mass ejection speed: ~2900 km/s or 6.5 million mph occur only once every ~5 to 10 years. NASA SOHO23 July 2012 dodging the bullet!

Powerful solar flare on 23 July, 2012

not Earth-directed

Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find the 23-24 July event would have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the 20th Century.

A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios; D.N. Baker et al.23 July 2012

Predictive Science, San Diego - Feb 2012: "On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events" indicates "the probability of another Carrington event occurring within the next decade is 12%.On the probability of a Carrington-like eventUSGS - May 2012 - "The most likely Poisson occurrence probability for another Carrington event in the next 10 years is 0.063, or about half the 0.120 probability that Riley [2012] estimates by extrapolating from smaller events."

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Impacts on technologyWhat is space weatherExtreme space weatherThe National Space Weather StrategyOverview

Space Weather MitigationCongress Grid Reliability and Infrastructure Defense (GRID) Act, S. 2158; Critical Infrastructure Protection Act, H.R. 1073U.S. Regulatory Action FERC reliability standardsSpace weather in Strategic National Risk AssessmentFEMA Federal Interagency Response Plan Will include a Long Term Power Outage AnnexInternational UN World Meteorological Organization Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather; FAA and UN International Civil Aviation Organization; NATO space weather teams including TransportMultiple efforts underway to address space weather, across government agencies and the private sector nationally and internationally

National Space Weather StrategyNov 2014 Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force is establishedTasked to develop:National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS)Space Weather Action Plan21

A cohesive all-of-government strategy was necessary to ensure the federal government was positioned to mitigate, respond to and recover from a major space weather storm

Multi-agency effortAll Actions coordinated with White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, National Security Council, and Office of Management and Budget Public Comment Period - stakeholders provided input and feedback on National Strategy National Space Weather Strategy Whole Enterprise InvolvementStrategy will require us to strengthen our interagency, public-private and international partnerships, in a whole community approach.

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National Space Weather Strategy StructureStrategy articulates six high-level goals

Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of Impacts on Critical Infrastructure Improve Space-Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting Increase International Cooperation 23

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The NSWAP establishes specific activities with:

implementation timelinesdetailed actionsspecific agency assignments

A National Space Weather Action Plan (NSWAP) establishes a process to implement the National Space Weather StrategyNational Space Weather Action Plan24

4.1.1 DHS, in collaboration with Sector Specific Agencies (SSAs), will assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to space-weather events (as described in Goal 1). The assessment will include interdependencies and failure modes among sectors that can lead to cascading failures and will identify gaps where scientific or engineering research is required to understand or mitigate risks to critical infrastructure. Deliverable: Complete assessment reports Timeline: The initial assessments will be completed within 18 months of the development of Phase 1 benchmarks. Reevaluations based on the Phase 2 benchmarks will be completed within 1 year of the development of Phase 2 benchmarks 4.1 Assess the Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure Systems to Space Weather

The Way ForwardEnsuring effective implementation

Currently defining effort to oversee implementation of Action PlanOversight of Action Plan will be led by White House with full agency involvement Proposed oversight by National Science and Technology Council

Memo from OMB and OSTP Directors27

Space weather observations and R&D are essential to address the growing societal needs for accurate and timely space weather information. Agencies should prioritize investments in space weather science and preparedness according to the 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan. White HouseMulti-Agency Science and Technology Priorities for the FY 2017 Budget

THANK YOU!

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