Space Weather ImpactsSpace Weather Impacts

• NOAA’s mission relates to space weather

– describe and predict changes in the Earth's environment

– protect life and property and enhance the economy

• NOAA’s mission relates to space weather

– describe and predict changes in the Earth's environment

– protect life and property and enhance the economy

Society Needs Space Society Needs Space Weather ServicesWeather Services

NavigationNavigation

Communications Communications Satellites Satellites

PowerPower

MannedMannedSpace Space FlightFlight

Terrestrial Terrestrial EffectsEffects

The Space Weather TeamThe Space Weather Team

SEC Operations Oct.-Nov. 2003SEC Operations Oct.-Nov. 2003

• House Science Subcommittee hearing – Oct. 30, 2003• House Science Subcommittee hearing – Oct. 30, 2003

““Continental Airlines wants you to know how appreciative we are… important Continental Airlines wants you to know how appreciative we are… important component of our decision making process… should be a model for other agencies component of our decision making process… should be a model for other agencies when it comes to working together with industry.”when it comes to working together with industry.”

Continental Airlines, November 5, 2003Continental Airlines, November 5, 2003

“It is clear from today's hearing...the services that NOAA...providesare unique and vital to our nation and its citizens every day, much more so than people realize.”

Subcommittee Chairman Vernon J. Ehlers (R-MI)

• Positive customer feedback

Space Environment Center Space Environment Center transferred to NWS in January transferred to NWS in January 2005 because:2005 because:

• Science is maturing

• SEC activities are strongly operational

– 24 x 7 staffed operations center

Note: House and Senate “marks” appear to give SEC full funding (Pres Bud request) for FY06

• Science is maturing

• SEC activities are strongly operational

– 24 x 7 staffed operations center

Note: House and Senate “marks” appear to give SEC full funding (Pres Bud request) for FY06

• SEC has been placed within National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

• NWS is an established and recognized operational agency

• SEC has been placed within National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

• NWS is an established and recognized operational agency

Space Environment Center Space Environment Center Transfer to NWSTransfer to NWS

““NWS is well-managed and results-oriented.”NWS is well-managed and results-oriented.”Office of Management and BudgetOffice of Management and Budget

National Centers for National Centers for Environmental ProtectionEnvironmental Protection

NASA POESGOES

Data IngestData ProcessingData Storage and AccessArchive data

SEC

NOAA

NASA

NOAA’s End-to-End Process

Satellite and Ground ObservationsReceived at SEC and from NOAA

Process Data

Product PreparationProduct Dissemination

Product verificationR&D to improve forecastsTechnique developmentEnviron. Lit., Outreach, Edu.Customer Feedback

Serve Customers (I)

Data RequirementsSpace Weather Sensor Requirements

Serve Customers (II)

Acquire Data

Contract sensor developmentWork with NESDIS for bus and launch

Plan Future DevelopmentsSecure New Data

SEC plays a central role

in all government efforts in Space

Weather

NOAA’s Satellite ProgramsNOAA’s Satellite Programs

GOESGOES

GOES-RGOES-R

•Mainstay of Weather & Space Weather Forecasting

•Pivotal for disaster planning and response

•Forecasts in support of general aviation, agriculture, and maritime activities

•Launch by 2013

•Provide users with 100 times the data

•Does not (yet) have a coronagraph, though it is the highest priority requirement not in the manifest

NOAA’s Satellite ProgramsNOAA’s Satellite Programs

NPOESSNPOESS

POES

•Essential for El Niño & Climate

•Cover Arctic & Antarctic

•Tri-agency Effort

• Improved Long-Range Weather & Climate Forecasts

• Increased Timeliness and Accuracy

•Provides Users 285 times the data

•13 of 55 EDRs are for space wx

NOAA’s Satellite ProgramsNOAA’s Satellite Programsdo NOT (yet) include a solar do NOT (yet) include a solar wind monitor, butwind monitor, but

• In partnership with NASA and the NPOESS Tri-agency IPO, NOAA has issued a Broad Area Announcement (BAA) requesting expressions of interest from potential for-profit providers of solar wind data

•The provider would sell data to NOAA (and others?) and provide other services on the spacecraft (e.g., South Pole comm for NSF)

•Possible solar sail mission

Space Weather SkillSpace Weather Skill

• Grown dramatically, principally due to new observations (SOHO, ACE, especially GPS)

• Operational models are still primitive; the first physics-based numerical model is yet to be deployed

• NASA, NSF, and DOD have invested in numerical models which NOAA can’t afford to implement

• The 7-agency, decade-old National Space Weather Program (NSWP) has been wonderfully successful

• Grown dramatically, principally due to new observations (SOHO, ACE, especially GPS)

• Operational models are still primitive; the first physics-based numerical model is yet to be deployed

• NASA, NSF, and DOD have invested in numerical models which NOAA can’t afford to implement

• The 7-agency, decade-old National Space Weather Program (NSWP) has been wonderfully successful

OutlineOutline

• FCMSSR presentation

• NOAA and space weather

• Thoughts on the future of the NSWP

• FCMSSR presentation

• NOAA and space weather

• Thoughts on the future of the NSWP

Components are still goodComponents are still good

Observations to Advance Space Observations to Advance Space Weather Services: HighlightsWeather Services: Highlights

• Upstream solar wind monitor delivering data in realtime

• A coronagraph to see CMEs headed Earthward

• Two-frequency, incl. limb occultation, GPS measurements in near realtime from as many platforms as possible

• Coronal magnetic field measurements

• Timely data from sensors flown for research purposes

• Upstream solar wind monitor delivering data in realtime

• A coronagraph to see CMEs headed Earthward

• Two-frequency, incl. limb occultation, GPS measurements in near realtime from as many platforms as possible

• Coronal magnetic field measurements

• Timely data from sensors flown for research purposes

Models to Advance Space Models to Advance Space Weather ServicesWeather Services

• Models to provide gridded output vice one global index number (need multiple data sources to drive) to make regional forecasts possible

• Data assimilation into MHD and other models, similar to meteorologists’ data assimilation

• A model “framework” similar to the ESMF now coming into existence for the meteorologists

• Transitioning models into operations is expensive and is inadequately funded at present. The first physics-based model is yet to be deployed operationally, despite the CCMC’s good work

• Models to provide gridded output vice one global index number (need multiple data sources to drive) to make regional forecasts possible

• Data assimilation into MHD and other models, similar to meteorologists’ data assimilation

• A model “framework” similar to the ESMF now coming into existence for the meteorologists

• Transitioning models into operations is expensive and is inadequately funded at present. The first physics-based model is yet to be deployed operationally, despite the CCMC’s good work

Research to Advance Space Research to Advance Space Weather Services: ExamplesWeather Services: Examples

• Understanding fine structure in coronal mass ejections at 1 AU, for credibility of the data driving geomagnetic storm models

• What can helioseismology tell us about magnetic fields? One day before emergence and years in advance?

• Understanding flare, CME, and energetic particle precursors and mechanisms, to increase lead time

• Understanding fine structure in coronal mass ejections at 1 AU, for credibility of the data driving geomagnetic storm models

• What can helioseismology tell us about magnetic fields? One day before emergence and years in advance?

• Understanding flare, CME, and energetic particle precursors and mechanisms, to increase lead time

Space Weather Helping Weather Space Weather Helping Weather and Climate: Needsand Climate: Needs

• How do disturbances propagate downward from thermosphere and what is there effect in the troposphere?

• Solar cycle effects on climate change?

• How do disturbances propagate downward from thermosphere and what is there effect in the troposphere?

• Solar cycle effects on climate change?

Need for End to End PlanningNeed for End to End Planning(perhaps easier with new (perhaps easier with new Congressional Approp Comms)Congressional Approp Comms)

• No up front planning to transition sensors from NASA to NOAA, if successful (TRMM, ACE, coronagraph)*

• No joint planning of payloads that might be “joint use” (e.g., no coronagraph on SDO)

• NOAA rewards excess capability in its operational satellite contracts, but the contractor’s costs make it prohibitively expensive to use this capability for research or prototype sensors

• Fragmented planning for transition of research models into operations

• NASA does take into account the usefulness of its data when considering termination of one of its spacecraft

* A Joint Working Group chaired by NASA’s Mary Cleave and NOAA’s ? (was DAA Colleen Hartman) is being set up

• No up front planning to transition sensors from NASA to NOAA, if successful (TRMM, ACE, coronagraph)*

• No joint planning of payloads that might be “joint use” (e.g., no coronagraph on SDO)

• NOAA rewards excess capability in its operational satellite contracts, but the contractor’s costs make it prohibitively expensive to use this capability for research or prototype sensors

• Fragmented planning for transition of research models into operations

• NASA does take into account the usefulness of its data when considering termination of one of its spacecraft

* A Joint Working Group chaired by NASA’s Mary Cleave and NOAA’s ? (was DAA Colleen Hartman) is being set up