south african economic report | updated to end june 2020 · q4/2019: -7 south african economic...

South African Economic Report | Updated to end June 2020

Publication date: 10 July 2020

Next publication: 7 August 2020

© 2020 | | South African Economic Report | Updated to end June 2020

Q4/2019: -7

South African Economic Report

GDP

-2.0%

Q1/2020

Q4/2019: -1.4%

2019: +0.2%(was -6.1%)

-7.0%

SARB 21 May 20202021: +3.8%2022: +2.9%

GDP Forecast

+R16bn

2019 +R24.7bn

2020 May 2020 Apr 2020

Trade Balance

2020 YTD +R12.9bn +3.0% +1.2%Mar 2020: CPI +4.1% | PPI +3.3%

Prime Interest Rate

7.25%

Effective 22 May 2020

Apr 2020: 7.75%

Unemployment

30.1%

Q1/2020

Q4/2019: 29.1%

-9

Consumer ConfidenceQ1/2020 Mar 2020

Retail Trade Sales

Feb 2020: +1.9%

2019: +1.2%

2020 YTD: +2.0%

“Things are tough. But it seems that in some matters, there is a steady hand, or series of hands, at the wheel.”

Trade Intelligence

SOURCE: StatsSA | South African

Reserve Bank (SARB) | SARS |

Bureau for Economic Research (BER)

+2.7%


How to read this report

• Depending on the indicator itself, data is released by the various institutions

on a weekly, monthly or quarterly basis. The frequency and release date

has been indicated at the foot of each slide, next to the data source. These

dates are indicative however, since the institutions may publish the data with

a delay

• Data lag: Data availability varies according to the data source, at times with

a lag of a couple of months

• Readers are reminded to bear this data lag in mind when looking for parallels

between indicators. It might therefore be necessary to go back to previous

months’ reports in order to correctly analyse indicators over the same

reporting periods

• Due to COVID-19 and the national lockdown some of the result release

dates have been moved and collection methods have been adapted. As

noted by the South African Reserve Bank: “The compilation of accurate

economic statistics will also remain severely challenged”.


What is the South African Economic Report?

• Ti’s South African Economic Report is a clear and easy-to-read view of

the most currently available data for South Africa’s key economic indicators

• Produced on a monthly basis by Ti Research, it draws on official

information from various public and private institutions

• The report is released in the first week of each new month, reporting on

the available data up to and including the last day of the previous

month

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Contents

ECONOMIC GROWTH (GDP)

PG 5

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS / IMPORTS

PG 9

EXCHANGE RATE

PG 11

INPUT PRICES

PG 13

INFLATION

PG 18

INTEREST RATES

PG 23

EMPLOYMENT

PG 24

HOUSEHOLD DEBT

PG 27

CONSUMER AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

PG 28

RETAIL SALES

PG 30



Annual GDP Growth and Forecasted Growth: 1995 - 2022

NOTE: Constant 2010 prices

SOURCE: StatsSA

2009: GFC (global

financial crisis) causes

recession

2016: Manufacturing

and mining constrained

Agriculture impacted by

the drought

2019: below forecast –

aggravated by loadshedding

Agriculture -6.9%

Mining -1.9%

Manufacturing -0.8%

Construction -3.3%

Finance +2.3%

Government +1.7%

Forecasts as per

Reserve Bank –

May 2020

Jun 2020: International Monetary Fund

(IMF) updated global growth forecast for

2020 to -4.9% (down from +2.9% forecasted

in Apr). SA: -8.0% for 2020 | 2021: +3.5%

In response to the COVID-19 Crisis, President Ramaphosa announced

a rescue package of R500bn, equivalent to 10% of South Africa’s GDP

to try to cushion the economic blow. Analysts believe this will be unable

to prevent a massive contraction in 2020.



Economic Growth (GDP)1

• Gross Domestic Production contracted -2.0% QoQ in Q1/2020. Although the number is not as

bad as predicted it is indicative of the continued tough economic conditions that have been

severely aggravated by the global pandemic

• Mining and manufacturing were the biggest contributors to the decline, contributing -1.7% and -1.1%

to the -2.0% decline that was marginally offset by the 0.8% contribution from finance and 0.5% from

agriculture

• Q1/2020 marks the third consecutive quarter of decline, after Q4: -1.4% and Q3: -0.8%

• 2019 YoY growth: +0.2%. 2020 will see growth well below that of the 2009 recession, sitting at -0.1%

YoY unadjusted

NOTE: 1 All data referred to is seasonally adjusted and annualised unless otherwise stated | QoQ: quarter-on-quarter

SOURCE: StatsSA

PRIMARY SECTOR -11.8%

Agriculture

Increased

production in

field crops,

horticultural and

animal products

Mining

Decline in iron

and manganese

ore, other

metallic

minerals and

chromium

+27.8% -21.5%

SECONDARY SECTOR -7.5%

Manufacturing

Weak production,

esp. in petroleum,

chemicals, metal

& automotive

products &

machinery

Electricity, gas and water

Decline in

electricity

distributed and

water

consumption

Construction

Slow down in

work across the

board

-8.5% -5.6% -4.7%

TERTIARY SECTOR +1.3%

Trade

Slow down in

activity, esp.

wholesale trade,

motor trade and

accommodation

services

Transport

Increase in

freight transport

and

communication

activities

Personal

services

Increased

spending on

health and

recreational

activities

Finance

Positive

contributor,

increase in

intermediaries

and ‘other’

business

services

Government

Increased activity

partly due to

increased

employment

numbers in the

civil service

-1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +3.7% +1.0%



Economic Growth (GDP)1 cont. • Expenditure on GDP (also known as ‘Demand

Side’/GDPe) declined -2.3% QoQ in Q1/2020

• The decline was attributed to the drawdown in

inventories and declining investment

• In 2019 expenditure on GDP increased marginally, +0.1% with

revised Q3: -0.4%

• 2020 expenditure faces uncertainty, with household

expenditure under pressure, and imports and exports impacted

by the lockdown and global slowdown, as well as the sudden

slowdown in investments

OUTLOOK

• The economy was under tremendous pressure even before the

pandemic and the resulting lockdown

• As lockdown conditions begin to relax, for the year as a whole,

investment, exports and imports are expected to decline

sharply and job losses are expected to be widespread

• In May 2020 the SARB revised the forecast for 2020 GDP

growth downwards (again) from -6.1% to -7.0%. There is still

potential downside pressure on this number due to COVID-19

and reduced global growth forecasts

• With the ‘zero based’2 supplementary budget announced at the

end of Jun, the Treasury expects a tax shortfall of over R300bn.

Add in the public finance costs and the budget deficit creeps to

15.7% of GDP for 2020/21. This raises red flags with ratings

agencies, offset marginally by the Treasury's presentation to

Parliament that there are no further bailouts for State Owned

Enterprises

Expenditure on GDPQ1/2020

CommentsGrowth1 Contrib.

Household Expenditure +0.7% 0.4%

Growth in line with retail sales growth

Increased expenditure on housing & utilities,

health, and education services

Food expenditure +4.3% while clothing and

footwear

-8.1% and transport -8.1%

Government

Expenditure +1.1% 0.2%

Expenditure increased with higher employment

and spending on goods and services

Gross Fixed Capital

Formation (GFCF)-20.5% -4.2%

Decline in investment in all asset types

Transport equipment -45.0%, machinery -26.9%,

other assets -37.7%

Exports -2.3% -0.7%Decline in exports, particularly precious metal and

stones, base metals and travel services

Imports -16.7% 5.3%

Decline influenced by fewer imports of machinery

and equipment, mineral products and travel

services

Change in Inventories -R67.3bn -4.2%Large drawdowns in mining, manufacturing and

retail, wholesale and motor trades

NOTE: 1 All data referred to is seasonally adjusted and annualised unless otherwise stated | Q1/2020 results delayed to 30 Jun 2020 | 2 Zero based budgeting is a method requiring all expenses be justified and approved and not based on a growth/decline on the

previous period

SOURCE: StatsSA


OUTLOOK

• Although May’s exports increased +96.1% compared to Apr, the rand value of exports was

lower than Mar, showing little to no sign of recovering the lost Apr value

• Global and domestic demand is under pressure and growth forecasts have been slashed

• South African production was limited in May, with Jun seeing South African industries begin

to reopen and build capacity. The weak rand could be a glimmer of hope to the South

African exporters


Total Merchandise Exports vs Imports (R’m)

NOTE: Numbers reported include trade with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and eSwatini. Revisions for the previous month are as a

result of ongoing vouchers of correction (VOC) where changes are made in the Bill of Entry after it has been filed with customs.

SOURCE: SARS | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: Last working day of successive month

• With the economy under lockdown since

the end of Mar, the trade balance for Apr

2020 came out with a massive deficit of

-R35.9bn

• May 2020 came out at a +R15.9bn surplus

• Exports increased +96.1% MoM to R102bn

(slightly ahead of Jan 2020’s level) but with little

to no sign of recovering the lost exports from Apr

2020

• Imports declined -2.2% MoM to R85bn (lowest

value since Dec 2018)

• Cumulative YTD trade surplus +R13bn with

exports -5.2% and imports -9.1% YoY, compared

to a deficit of -R7bn this time last year

MoM % Growth Highlights

Exports Imports

Minerals +79% to R12.0bn Vegetables -43% to R1.7bn

Precious Metals +162% to R13.8bn Minerals -20% to R2.7bn

Base Metals +182% to R7.1bn Machinery +20% to R3.6bn

Machinery +427% to R5.3bn Vehicles -22% to R1.4bn

Vehicles +221% to R4.1bn Equipment -18% to R3.1bn

Mar 2020: largest trade surplus since 1957 at +R24.2bn.

Exports boosted by food and food products and imports

impacted by decline in textiles

Apr 2020: massive

deficit -R36bn



Merchandise Exports vs Imports for Prepared Foodstuffs (R’m)

NOTE: Numbers reported include trade with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia

and eSwatini

SOURCE: SARS | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: Last working day of

successive month

35 consecutive months of trade SURPLUS

from Feb 2017 – Dec 2019

Jan 2020 deficit R62.2m

Feb 2020 surplus R1.1bn

Mar 2020 surplus R1.7bn

Apr 2020 surplus R496m

May 2020 surplus R1.3bn

• Prepared foodstuffs includes beverages,

spirits & vinegar; tobacco & manufactured

tobacco substitutes

• Trade accounted for 4.1% of total exports and

2.4% of total imports for May 2020

• May 2020’s MoM exports increased +11.7% to

R4.2bn (Apr: -23.2% to R3.8bn)

• Imports for May declined -9.8% to R4.0bn (Apr:

+2.2% to R3.3bn)

• Trade balance for May 2020 +R1.3bn (Apr:

+R495m)

• Cumulative trade balance for YTD (Jan – May) is

+R4.5bn, which is below the +R6.0bn reported for

the same period last year. Exports -6.4% and

imports +0.9%

Biggest Contributors

Exports Imports

Beverages 22% Sugars and Confec 20%

Fruit and Veg 16% Residues & Waste 18%

Sugars and Confec 14% Misc. Edible Prep 16%



Exchange Rate | Annual View 2004 – 2020 YTD

SOURCE: X-Rates.com | Bureau of Economic Research

End Jun 2016 – BREXIT vote.

Concern over Britain’s

economic trajectory

2020 YTD: Dramatic devaluation

due to weak GDP results, COVID-19

and ratings downgrade

Exchange Rate | Monthly View

Mar and Apr 2020: Dramatic

devaluation due to weak GDP

results, COVID-19 and ratings

downgrade

Feb 2020: Loadshedding

and the spread of the

coronavirus in and beyond

China Jul 2019: Emerging currencies bolstered by

talks of a US interest rate cut.

Fears of a ‘no-deal Brexit’ rise as Boris

Johnson announced as UK’s Prime Minister



Exchange Rate cont.

Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate

Strengthened the Rand Weakened the Rand

• Beginning of Jun: emerging market

sentiment improved, the rand dipped

below R17/US$ as markets looked

forward and as some analysts are

reading Apr’s data as the bottom of

the trough

• End Jun/Beg Jul: Rand stronger as

emerging markets come back into

favour due to global risk appetite

returning and better than expected

global data

• Mid Jun the market soured toward

emerging currencies causing the rand

to weaken as the US Fed’s grim

outlook for the world’s biggest

economy rattled global equity

markets. The rand went back over

R17/US$

• End Jun supplementary budget

announced with worsened debt

trajectory. Rand largely unchanged

SOURCE: X-Rates.com | Frequency: Daily; Bureau of Economic Research | Frequency: Weekly

Exchange Rate Movements

Jun-19 Jun-20 YoY% MoM%

US$ R 14.58 R 17.13 17.5% -5.8%

€ R 16.47 R 19.27 17.0% -3.0%

£ R 18.48 R 21.43 16.0% -4.2%

OUTLOOK

• Global factors are likely to continue to be the main influencer of sentiment

towards emerging market currencies

• Overseas economic data and infection curves will pull on that sentiment

• Once again the rand strengthened marginally in Jun 2020, up from

May and Apr 2020, but remains significantly lower than last year

• Much of the improvement had little to do with any domestic factors

so the rand remains at the mercy of “sentiment towards emerging

markets”

• Lockdown restrictions have largely begun relaxing across the

globe, be it less so in South Africa. This has improved market

sentiment and sentiment towards emerging market currencies

bolstered by economic stimulus out of Japan and the EU

• Gold prices tend to increase at times of crisis, as gold is seen as a

hedge (‘safe’ bet). Lower global interest rates lower the cost of

holding gold adding to the attraction. Gold was around $1,740/oz in

Jun 2020, at a seven-year high increasing at the end of the month

and into Jul to around $1,770/oz as investors pursued safe haven

assets amidst COVID-19 uncertainty



Input Prices | Fuel – Three-year View

SOURCE: Department of Energy | Frequency: Monthly; Bureau of Economic Research | Frequency: Weekly; The Central Energy Fund | Frequency: Monthly

Apr 2019: FUEL

LEVY: +20c/l

Jun 2019: CARBON LEVY

+9c/l petrol | +10c/l diesel

Nov and Dec 2018 Slate levy

+21.92c/lSARB 2020 Brent Crude oil

price assumption:

US$337/barrel- May 2020

Apr 2020: FUEL

LEVY: +34c/l

Dramatic oil price drop due

to COVID-19 and the

declining demand



Input Prices | FuelPrice effective 1 Jul 2020:

Over the review period (29/05/2020 – 25/06/2020):

• International price of petrol, diesel and paraffin increased

from an average of $28.71 to $39.87 per barrel

• Rand strengthened, albeit marginally, against the US$

from R18.17 to R17.13

• Petrol, diesel and paraffin had an under-recovery;1 prices

will thus increase for Jul 2020

• Fuel sales have declined around -60% in South Africa in

Apr 2020, -90% at some service stations, as the

lockdown had cars sitting in garages and travel plans

cancelled. More vehicles are on the road with lockdown

easing but travel is still not what it used to be and many

forecourt owners continue to feel the pressure

Factors Affecting the Price of Oil

Increasing Declining

• Beginning Jun: OPEC+ brought forward

their meeting to decide on future outputs

with investors expecting an extension to

the supply cut. This was ultimately the

outcome of the meeting

• End Jun: OPEC+ members commit to

production cuts and US oil rig counts

decline. Improved market sentiment

globally drove the demand expectation

upwards

• Mid Jun: as COVID-19 cases continue to

increase (with a spike in the US), the oil

price declined -8.0% week-on-week

• US reported record high levels of US oil

inventories (over 530 million barrels) as

cheap imports came into the US from Saudi

Arabia

NOTE: 1 Under or over recovery is based on the previous month, measuring the movement in the international price and the

exchange rate on a daily basis and comparing it to the set price.

SOURCE: Department of Energy | Frequency: Daily; Bureau of Economic Research | Frequency: Weekly; The Central

Energy Fund

FuelApr change

(c/l)

May change

(c/l)

Jun change

(c/l)

Jul change

(c/l)

Jul

Price (R/l)

Unleaded petrol

(Inland 95) -188 -174 +118 +172 13.40

Diesel -134 -161 +22 +1.73 11.31

Illuminating paraffin -184 -223 +40 +214 4.90

OUTLOOK

• The SA Reserve Bank pegged the 2020 Brent Crude oil price to be

around US$37.00 (in May 2020) up from the low of under US$19 last

month but still well below the 2019 average of around US$63.00

• If OPEC delivers on the expected supply cuts and demand sentiment

improves, the oil price could move sideways or slightly upwards. This

added to the weak rand and fuel taxes, South Africans could see the

price remain a strain on their wallets



Input Prices | Grains (Maize & Wheat) – Three-Year View Grains Input Price Movements

Yellow

Maize

White

MaizeWheat

Average Price May ‘20 (R/ton) 2,705 2,588 5,208

% Growth YoY (May ‘20 vs May ‘19) 4.7% -2.5% 19.0%

% Growth MoM (May ‘20 vs Apr ‘20 ) -6.8% -6.5% -4.7%

NOTE: No data published for Jun 2020

SOURCE: ABSA AgriTrends

• In South Africa yellow maize is predominantly used

in animal feed and white maize is primarily a staple

food

• COVID-19 has caused uncertainty in commodity prices.

Compounded by the weaker rand, the price of maize

rose around +12% MoM in Apr and declined over -6%

MoM in May

• South Africa is a net importer of wheat so local wheat prices follow the global trend and due to the rand weakness, prices are nearly +20% more than last year

Apr 2020: Rand

weakens due to

COVID-19

OUTLOOK

• Maize prices are expected to decline slightly as harvest

increases supply. South Africa ‘s commercial maize crop

yield is expected to be the second highest ever recorded

• Wheat prices are expected to follow the seasonal trend,

with the South African crop facing conditions that are drier

than ideal



Input Prices | Oilseed – Three-Year View Oilseed Input Price Movements

Sunflower Soybean

Average Price May ‘20 (R/ton) 5,953 6,618

% Growth YoY (May ‘20 vs May ‘19) 19.8% 42.0%

% Growth MoM (May ‘20 vs Apr ‘20 ) -0.4% -4.0%

Soybean pricing surpasses sunflower as it

increases over 40% more than last year• Oilseed is defined as any of several seeds from

cultivated crops yielding oil (e.g. sunflower,

peanut, or soybean) used in foods and personal

care products. For the purposes of this report,

soybean and sunflower prices are analysed

• Soybean pricing has widened the gap on

sunflower pricing with +25% higher soybean

pricing compared to last year, while sunflower is

close to +20% higher than last year

Apr 2020: Rand

weakens due to

COVID-19

OUTLOOK

• South Africa remains a net importer of oilseeds and is

therefore sensitive to exchange rate changes

• Price internationally has been aggravated by Russia

imposing an export ban on some agricultural products,

including sunflower seed

NOTE: No data published for Jun 2020




Input Prices | Beef & Poultry – Three-Year View Beef and Poultry Input Price Movements

Frozen Whole

Chicken

Fresh Whole

Chicken

Contract Beef

Weaner Calf

Average Price May ‘20 (R/kg) 24.03 24.06 43.64 28.81

% Growth YoY

(May ‘20 vs May ‘19)-5.9% -9.2% -2.2% 3.7%

% Growth MoM

(May ‘20 vs Apr ‘20 )-8.5% -9.1% -5.1% 2.0%

Feb 2020: Auctions closed due

to FMD (foot and mouth

disease). Limited supply of

weaners led to price jump

Apr 2020: Demand declines

due to closure of

restaurants and takeaways

as SA enters lockdown

• A slower economy cuts the demand for animal protein

and different cuts and grades are impacted more than

others. Beef and lamb are often viewed as luxuries,

while demand for beef mince supports the price

• The closure of restaurants and takeaways has impacted

beef demand as well as the demand for chicken breasts

• Weaner calf pricing is fluctuating as there is so much

uncertainty around demand. Not being able to sell creates a

cash flow problem for farmers, who still need to feed the

animals as well as facing possible space constraints

• Chicken prices came down from last month as the drop in

demand has left stock piles up in cold storage

OUTLOOK

• With supply levels high due to restaurant closures, some beef

and poultry products can be seen at discounted prices in retail,

creating volatility in the market but keeping the supply movingNOTE: No data published for Jun 2020



Apr 2020 YoY

Core inflation1 +3.2%

CPI goods +1.7%

CPI services +4.1%


Inflation | Five-year View

NOTE: 1Core Inflation = CPI excluding food, non-alcoholic beverages and petrol

SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 3rd Wednesday of the successive month | Apr 2020 data collection was impacted by the lockdown leading to a limited sample. Stats SA made use of imputation factors

(estimates based on previous samples) to adjust for the missing data

CPI PPI

Feb 20 4.6% 4.5%

Mar 20 4.1% 3.3%

Apr 20 3.0% 1.2%

CPI and Core Inflation1

2017 5.3% (core 4.8%)

2018 4.6% (core 4.3%)

2019 4.1% (core 4.1%)

BASKET WEIGHTING

2008 2012 2016

Food & Non Alc. Bev. 15.7% 15.4% 17.2%

Petrol 4.8% 7.3% 4.58%

Electricity 1.9% 4.2% 3.8%

Res Bank CPI and Core

Inflation Forecast

2020 3.4% (core 3.5%)

2021 4.4% (core 3.8%)

2022 4.4% (core 4.1%)

Revised May 2020Drought conditions in SA

saw food prices increase

Apr 2020 marks 37

consecutive months of CPI

within target of 3% to 6%



Inflation | CPI by Category – Three Years

SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 3rd Wednesday of the successive month - Apr 2020 data collection was impacted by the lockdown leading to a limited sample. Stats SA made use of imputation factors

(estimates based on previous samples) to adjust for the missing data

CPI Personal Care

Aug 18: At a 7-year low +0.3%

CPI Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages

Feb and Apr 2019: Reached a low of

2.9% (lowest level since 2010)

CPI Electricity and Other Fuels:

Municipalities have started

increasing electricity tariffs



Inflation | CPI by Food Type

4 of the measured categories of

food reported inflation above the

upper target band of 6%

NOTE: Non-alcoholic beverages are not shown in the above

SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 3rd Wednesday of the successive month – Apr 2020 data

collection was impacted by the lockdown leading to a limited sample. Stats SA made use of imputation factors (estimates

based on previous samples) to adjust for the missing data

YoY Apr 2020:

Food 4.6% (LY: 2.3%)(Excl. Non-alcoholic beverages)

Veg CPI last

year: +10.1%

Fruit inflation above

6.0% for the last four

months

Inflation | Essential Products (EP-CPI) under COVID-19

NOTE: Cumulative week-on-week change 2 – 30 Apr

SOURCE: StatsSA

Based on 187 of the 412 products in the

CPI basket with data collected weekly

primarily through onlineEggs +19.8% (mostly

in the first week)

Cheese spread +6.8%

Frozen hake

-1.5%

Margarine -4.9%

Cooking oil

+5.4%

White sugar -1.0%

Brown sugar -5.0%

Declines in baby

formula and baby

cereal



Inflation | Essential Products (EP-CPI) under COVID-19

NOTE: WoW: week-on-week

SOURCE: StatsSA | Essential Products Consumer Price Index (EP-CPI), 23 Apr 2020

• Over the level 5 lockdown period StatsSA calculated an Essential Products Consumer Price Index

(EP-CPI looking at the smaller basket (20% of the normal basket) using online prices for retail stores

Essential Product: 2 – 30 Apr 2020 EP-CPI

All Essential Products -0.5%

Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages -0.5%

Food -0.5%

Bread and cereals -0.5%

Meat -1.0%

Fish 0.9%

Milk, eggs and cheese 2.8%

Oils and fats 1.2%

Fruit -3.2%

Vegetables -4.6%

Sugar, sweets and desserts -1.9%

Other food 0.4%

Non-Alcoholic Beverages -0.3%

Hot beverages 0.6%

Cold beverages -0.8%

Household Maintenance and Supplies 1.1%

Health 0.1%

Recreation 0.0%

Miscellaneous (incl. personal care) -2.5%

• Over the period EP-CPI declined -0.5%, increasing the first week and declining for the rest, with the

final week reporting a decline of -0.7% WoW (2-9 Apr: +0.5% | 10-16 Apr: -0.2% | 17-23 Apr: -0.1% |

24-30 Apr: -0.7% )

hot beverages +0.6% (black tea +4.6%,

rooibos tea -2.7% and instant coffee

prices increased), meat -1.0% (beef

mince price up, chicken price down),

while fruit prices -3.2% and veg -4.6%

and formula -5.1% and baby cereal -6.0%

• Household maintenance (contr. 1.9%)

prices +1.1%, pushed up by increase in

dishwashing liquid prices +5.4%, toilet

cleaner +4.1%

• Miscellaneous (contr. 5.1%) (including

personal care) declined

-2.5%. This includes decline in toothpaste

-5.3%, bath soap -7.8%, tissues and hair

shampoo -4.8% and conditioner prices

• Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages (89% contribution) EP-CPI -0.5%, inflation on milk, eggs and cheese

+2.8% (especially egg prices at the beginning of Apr), oils and fats +1.2% (cooking oil prices increased +5.4%),



Inflation

CPI (Consumer Price Index) for Apr 2020 came out in line with

expectations at +3.0%, lowest since 2005. (Mar +4.1% | Feb +4.6% | Jan

+4.5%). Data collection was impacted by the lockdown resulting in a

significantly limited sample*

Housing and utilities increased (contrib. 1.1%): +4.6% YoY, with

water at +7.2% and electricity at +11.4% YoY

Transport (contrib. -0.5% | Mar 2020: 0.5%) -3.5% YoY with fuel

-12.8% YoY due to the almost -R2/litre decline in petrol price in

early Apr

Food and non-alcoholic beverages (contrib. 0.7%): +4.4% YoY.

Fruit reported inflation at +9.1% while vegetables -0.1%

PPI (Producer Price Index) for Apr 2020 came out at +1.2%, after +4.2%

for Mar 2020. This is the lowest PPI on record

Coke, petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products

(contrib. at -1.1% | Mar 0.5%) declining -13.2% YoY. Petrol -16.3%

| diesel -14.9%

Food products, beverages and tobacco products (contrib.

1.0%) increased to +30% | Mar +2.6%

NOTE: *Apr 2020 data collection was impacted by the lockdown leading to a limited sample. Stats SA made use of imputation factors (estimates based on previous samples) to adjust for the missing data

SOURCE: StatsSA

OUTLOOK

• The Reserve Bank’s CPI forecast (as at May 2020) has declined for 2020

to +3.4% (2021: +4.4% and 2022: +4.4%) as the economy faces a ‘virus-

induced demand shock’ and low oil prices

• StatsSA has been tracking the EP-CPI (Essential Products Consumer

Price Index) from 2 – 30 Apr. Data on the previous slide shows some price

increases for eggs, tea, coffee and dishwashing liquid and some price

decreases on fruit, veg, bath soap and other personal care products with

a net of -0.5% for the period. This data was only collected over level 5 of

lockdown before the essential product list was expanded under level 4

• With demand remaining constrained, upward price pressures are

expected to remain relatively muted during 2020. However, it is difficult to

speculate in these uncertain times – possible supply shortages, the

weakened rand and investment rating downgrades could add some

upward pressure to inflation

“Local food price inflation is also expected to remain

contained. Risks to inflation from currency depreciation are

expected to stay muted while pass-through remains slow.”

Lesetja Kganyago, Reserve Bank Governor, May 2020


Prime Interest Rate


NOTE: The next MPC statement 23 Jul 2020

SOURCE: South African Reserve Bank | Frequency: Bimonthly

May 2020 – Repo rate at

record low of 3.75%

Prime at 7.25%

• At the May 2020 Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting the

decision was made to cut the repo rate by -50 basis points after a 3:2 vote. The

decision was made against the backdrop of lower inflation forecasts and rapidly

deteriorating economic conditions due to COVID-19

• Inflation outlook: The extended lockdown and slower economic recovery has created

downside risk to the inflation outlook as the economy faces a ‘virus-induced demand shock’

and low oil prices. As such, the SARB’s revised CPI forecast for 2020 is down to +3.4%

despite the weak rand

• The domestic economic growth outlook worsened from what was already described as

“fragile”. The SARB reduced the 2020 growth forecast to -7.0% from -6.1% as investment,

businesses, imports and exports remain constrained and job losses increase, with little

support from global growth (global GDP forecast -3.0% – IMF). This faces downside risk as

the WHO reports that the pandemic is unlikely to end quickly and trade relationships and

supply chain prospects are uncertain at best

“Monetary policy however cannot on its own improve the potential growth rate of the

economy or reduce fiscal risks. These should be addressed by implementing

prudent macroeconomic policies and structural reforms that lower costs generally,

and increase investment opportunities, potential growth and job creation.”

Lesetja Kganyago, Reserve Bank Governor, May 2020

OUTLOOK

• The implied path of policy rates over the forecast period generated by the Quarterly Projection

Model indicates two repo rate cuts of 25 basis points in the next two quarters of 2020 but due to

the volatility of conditions the MPC noted “future decisions will continue to be data dependent

and sensitive to the balance of risks to the outlook“. The 3:2 vote at the last MPC meeting has

some analysts doubting the likelihood of further interest rate cuts at this time while it doesn’t

seem likely that the interest rate cut will convince consumers to buy cars and/or houses

20 Mar 2020: Prime cut

by -100 basis points

15 Apr 2020: Emergency meeting

- 100 basis points decline


72%

41.7%

Q1: +10.8munemployed

(expanded definition)

7.1mpeople looking for work

+2.9mpeople are discouraged

Q1/2020 Characteristics

of Unemployment

29% Job Losers5% Job Leavers39% New Entrants5% R e-entrants22% Other


Employment Rates

NOTES: 1Not economically active means students, home-makers, the sick or disabled, those too old or young to work and discouraged work seekers (those who are involuntarily unemployed).

SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Quarterly | Release date: Q1 – amended to Jun, Q2 – Aug; Q3 – Nov, Q4 – Feb

1

Employed:

-37k QoQ

+92k YoY

Discouraged:

+416k QoQ

+803k YoY

Unemployed

+344k QoQ

+869k YoY

34.1%of 15 – 24 year olds are not in

employment, education or training

of 15 – 34 year olds

unemployed for over 1 year



Employment Rates cont.• South Africa has one of the

highest unemployment rates

in the world at 30.1% (narrow

definition) increasing from

29.1% in Q4. It is typical for

unemployment to increase

between Q4 and Q1.

• 16.4m people are employed. This is

42.1% of the working age population

(emerging economies = 60%).

Majority are employed in the formal

sector but 2.9 million are employed in

the informal sector which lost -12k

jobs in the quarter ending Mar 2020,

before the effects of the pandemic

• 7.1m people are unemployed (+869k

more than LY) as +336k people

joined the workforce. 15.4m people

are not economically active; of this

2.9m people are discouraged

workers, +63k more than last quarter

• Taking into account discouraged

workers, the expanded

unemployment rate is at 38.7%. This

means that over 10.8 million people

are unemployed

SOURCE: StatsSA

Working Age Population 38.9m (15-64 years old)

Labour Force 23.5m (60% participation rate)

Employed 16.4m (42% absorption rate)

Form

al 69%

Info

rmal 18%

Agri

c 5

%

Pri

vate

household

s 8

%

Unemployed 7.1m (30.1% unemployed)

Job losers

29%

Job leavers

5%

New

entr

ants

39%

Re

-en

trants

5%

Oth

er

22%

Not Economically Active 15.4m

Dis

coura

ged w

ork

ers

2.9

m

Other 12.5m

Stu

dents

49%

Hom

em

akers

20%

Ill/dis

able

d 1

3%

Too y

oung/o

ld 1

2%

Oth

er

7%


• Compared to Q1 last year, there are +92,000 more people employed in

Q1/2020. Over -37,000 net jobs were lost between Q4 and Q1

• Finance lost -51k jobs QoQ including advertising jobs, leaving them close

to the same as last year, employing over 2.5 million people

• Community and social services employ 185,000 more people than in Mar 2019

but lost -33k jobs in the last quarter driven by losses in educational services

• Trade employs -25,000 less people in Mar 2020 than in Mar 2019, surprisingly

gaining +71k jobs in Q1 compared to Q4 mainly in hotels, restaurants and non-

specialised retail. Q2 will likely paint a different picture

• Based on information published by Eighty20, in May 2020 of the 16 million

employed: 5.5 million people went to work, 1.7 million worked at home and 1.4

million worked at reduced capacity. This left 8 million employed people unable to

work – since the move to level 3 with extension, the number has dropped to 4.1

million who are not working


Employment Rates cont.

SOURCE: StatsSA | Eighty20

Industry Q1/2020 based on the

Quarterly Labour Force survey

Employed

(‘000)

% Contr to

Employment

YoY Change

(‘000)

QoQ Change

(‘000)

Total1 16,383 100% 92 -37

Agriculture 865 5% 28 -20

Mining 436 3% 19 6

Manufacturing 1,706 10% -74 -14

Utilities 116 1% -34 -4

Construction 1,343 8% 4 -7

Trade2 3,320 20% -25 71

Transport 995 6% -30 -16

Finance3 2,517 15% 1 -51

Community & Social Services 3,759 23% 185 -33

Private Households 1,316 8% 15 30

OUTLOOK

• Unemployment has fluctuated between 20% and 30.1% for the last 25

years, aggravated by low skills levels, poor education and training, as

well as stringent labour laws. Average monthly earnings growth has

barely kept up with inflation. The combination of high levels of

unemployment combined with muted wage growth is detrimental to

consumers’ ability to spend

• This was the situation before COVID-19. Service and the tourism

sector is being hardest hit with many firms not expected to survive

• Fitch solutions is forecasting unemployment for 2020 at 35% and 39%

for 2021, with +10% added for the expanded definition, nearing the

50% mark

South Africa

39.7%

Expanded unemployment for Q1/2020:

Male

36.5%

Female

43.4%


• In Q4/2019 the ratio of household debt

to disposable income was at 73.0%

(Q3: 72.6%) i.e. for every R100 earned,

South Africans have R73.00 debt

• The average South African owes over R19k on

their credit cards, over R500k on home loans,

over R180k on cars over R35k in personal

loans

• Household disposable income reported growth,

below inflation, of only +0.9% in 2019; (2018:

+1.5%). Household net wealth has also slowed

and remains unevenly spread across the

population. South Africa has the highest wealth

inequality in the world


Percentage of Household Debt to Disposable Income

SOURCE: National Credit Regulator (NCR) publications, Credit Bureau Monitor and

Consumer Credit Market Report Bank | South African Reserve Bank | BER (Bureau for

Economic Research) | TransUnion

Credit Bureau Monitor

Q4/2018 Q1/2019 Q2/2019 Q3/2019 Q4/2019

Credit-active consumers (millions)

25.85 25.70 25.10 25.14 25.2

% in good standing 60.70% 60.51% 59.24% 59.24% 57.5%

Impaired records 10.16m 10.15m 10.23m 10.23m 10.71m

Q4/2017: lowest

level since the

beginning of 2006

Highest ratio was 83.0%recorded in Q1/2010

Q4/2019 NCR Publication Highlights Comments

No. of credit-active consumers 25.2 million -2.5% YoY

% in good standing (they have not missed

paying 1 or 2 instalments)57.5% -3.2% YoY

No. of consumers with impaired records 10.71 million One year over 10 million

No. of accounts 82 million 26.8% impaired

New mortgages R43.7bn +4.2% on last year, 82% exceed R700k value

Secured credit R46.2bn +1.7% on last year, vehicles remain the largest contributor

Credit facilities R21.3bn-1.7%, mainly comprising credit/garage cards, store cards

and bank overdrafts

OUTLOOK

These high levels of indebtedness do not

bode well for consumers’ ability to service

their debt at a time when their disposable

income is under pressure, with almost eight

in ten South Africans reporting that their

household income has been cut by the

COVID pandemic.

The country is reopening with a ‘risk

adjusted’ approach – salaries are at risk as

unemployment soars, the market is more

vulnerable than ever despite the -250 basis

point drop in interest rate and numerous

programmes and policies

Over 10 million credit active consumers

have impaired records

“The household debt to-disposable-income ratio fell consistently

between 2009 and 2018 as debt burdens were gradually worked

down following a period of excess in the mid-2000s.” SARB



RMB/BER Consumer Confidence Index

NOTE: 1 higher income as classified: +R14,000 per month

SOURCE: Bureau for Economic Research (BER) | Frequency: Quarterly | Release date RMB/BER CCI: TBC

“The confidence gains since Mr. Ramaphosa's election

have now been completely reversed and South Africa's

grim economic reality has become apparent to consumers.”

FNB Economist, Jan 2020

OUTLOOK

• The Q1 results release was based on data collected prior to the

COVID-19 lockdown. The Q2 index will no doubt show a decline,

the extent of which remains to be seen

• Data from Lightstone Auto indicates that new vehicle sales declined

-98.4% in Apr 2020. Under level 4 (May) sales were allowed (with

restrictions) but indications are that consumers are likely to delay

big-ticket purchases for some time to come

• Consumer Confidence Index (RMB/BER CCI) for

Q1/2020 declined -2 points to -9 after sitting at -7 for

two quarters

• The index is calculated based on three survey questions.

Economic outlook, household financial outlook and

suitability of the present time to buy durable goods

• Results showed, once again, a greater decline in

confidence from higher-income1 respondents, with the

index dropping to a 20-year low

• The confidence index remained low but stable for low- and

middle-income earners

• The ‘time-to-buy’ sub-index reported at a 33-year low

2008/2009

RecessionQ2/2015

14-year low

Consumers upbeat due

to World Cup euphoria

2016/Q3:

optimisim

post local

govt

elections

End of 3-year long

negative streak with

historic high due to

change in leadership

Outlook

deteriorated

as results

fail to match

sentiment

Q3/2019: economic outlook

declines especially for higher

income1 earners



RMB/BER Business Confidence Index

NOTE: The BER takes the percentage of respondents who rate prevailing conditions as

an indicator or proxy of business confidence. It is the unweighted average of business

executives' ratings of current business conditions and their immediate and short-term

expectations.

SOURCE: Bureau for Economic Research (BER) | Frequency: Quarterly

Boom period –

High levels of

GDP growth

2008/2009

Recession

2010 Soccer

World Cup

euphoria Q2/2017 – BCI at 29

comparable to 2009

recession levels

Q1/2018 – BCI jumped to 45 due

to leadership changes in SA

Q1/2020– BCI

at 21-year low

OUTLOOK

• The Q2 results reflect the ‘confidence shock’ cause by COVID-

19 and the restrictions imposed

• Building has seen projects cancelled, manufacturers have cut

back fixed investments. Retailers are doubtful that there is pent

up demand for semi-durables (e.g. clothing) and durables (e.g.

furniture and electronics) as necessities come first

• Businesses will likely continue to face an income pressure as

costs increase and weak demand weighs on prices. Many will

have to find new ways of doing business, likely hiring less staff

Q2/2020– BCI

record low

RMB/BER BCI by Sector Q3 Q4 Q1/20 Q2/20

RMB/BER BCI 21 26 18 5

Retailers 17 30 18 11

Wholesalers 29 28 25 4

New Vehicle Dealers 22 30 16 2

Manufacturers 16 24 17 6

Building 23 31 15 2

“COVID-19 has drastically changed

the already-weak economic landscape

and perhaps, in some cases,

permanently. We are likely only

beginning to fully appreciate the

complexity of the economic impacts of

this pandemic.”

Ettienne le Roux, chief economist of RMB

• Business Confidence Index (RMB/BER BCI) reached

a record low based on the survey conducted from

13/5/20 to 1/6/20 covering 1,800 business executives

• The record low was due to COVID-19 and the five-week

shutdown of almost all non-essential economic activity leaving

a lot of businesses with no income but still liable for expenses.

Those that could trade faced supply chain disruptions and

additional costs for health and safety

• Retailer confidence index was 11, with food and pharma

boosting the result as durable sales stopped (furniture,

appliances, electronics). Although food manufacturing

continued, the index contracted as other sectors could not

operate fully. Wholesalers index at 4 as it covers all sectors


SOURCE: StatsSA


Annualised Retail Trade Sales (R’bn) at 2015 Constant Prices

• StatsSA defines a retailer as an enterprise

deriving 50% or more of its turnover from

sales of goods to the general public for

household use

• General dealers make up over 40% of the retail

sales value, with textile retailers accounting for

18% and food specialist stores accounting for

8% (based on 2019)

• 2019 retail sales increased only +1.2%. General

dealers +1.1%, household goods +2.8%, textiles

+1.8% as well as other retailers, retailers in

hardware, paint and glass declined

-1.5%

• Food specialists reported retail sales +0.8%, up

from -2.2% in 2018



Retail Trade Sales – 2015 Constant Prices

NOTE: Other = All Other Retailers includes retailers in books, stationery; jewellery, sport goods; repairs of goods; second-hand sales and trade not in stores (i.e. online shopping) at retailers without physical outlets.SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 2 months after reported month | Jul represents a new sample

Christmas sales typically contribute

±20% to the year’s total retail sales

each year (Nov + Dec)

Nov 2017 – Black

Friday

Dec 2017, 2018 and 2019 – Sales pulled into Nov due to

Black Friday promotional activity

• Retail trade sales growth for Mar 2020

reported growth +2.7% to R78bn as

consumers stocked up ahead of the

lockdown

• Owing to the COVID-19 lockdown the

collection rate for the data for the Feb and Mar

2020 report was lower than typical. StatsSA

has thus indicated that revisions may be larger

than normal (Feb was +2.0%, after revision:

+1.9%)

• 2020 YTD growth: +2.0%. 2019: +1.2%

• Refer to next slide for industry performance

OUTLOOK

• The pressure on household spending and

disposable income seems unrelenting with

unemployment over 30% and set to skyrocket,

as the impact of COVID-19 and lockdown

restrictions continue to hit the economy

• Mar 2020 saw some sectors bolstered by

panic buying, stock piling and pantry stocking

• Apr 2020 results will show the biggest dip as

non-essential sales will be near zero



Retail Trade Sales by Industry

• Retail trade sales reported growth +2.7%

for Mar 2020

• General dealers typically account for 42% of

retail sales. In Mar this increased to 49% with

growth +11.6% as consumers stocked up in

preparation for the lockdown

• Retailers in pharmaceutical and medical goods,

cosmetics and toiletries also saw an increase

+13.9% in Mar

• ‘Non-essentials’ retailers closed when lockdown

went into effect on 26 Mar, but many report

sales declined before that as consumers began

avoiding public places due to COVID-19 spread

• Textile and clothing retailers have been hit

hard, as seen by the likes of Edcon in business

rescue

• Retailers in pharmaceuticals reported a decline

of -2.0% for Feb 2020

IndustryMar 20 3 months

CommentsGrowth Contr. Growth Contr.

General dealers 11.6% 5.2% 4.4% 1.9%Massive growth as consumers prepare for lockdown,

last time double-digit growth was reported was in 2010

Food, beverages

& tobacco0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1%

Many of these smaller specialist ‘convenience’ stores

could not open initially

Pharma,

cosmetics etc.13.9% 1.0% 3.4% 0.2%

Massive growth as consumers stocked up on

medicines and health supplements

Textiles, clothing

etc.-16.0% -2.2% -3.8% -0.5%

Positive start to 2020 but hard hit as consumers

stayed home even before the lockdown. Growth rate

for 2019 is behind 2018 (2018: +3.5% | 2019: +1.8%)

Furniture, app &

equip-10.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Growth remained mostly positive for 13 consecutive

months until Mar 2020 when stores closed

Hardware, paint

& glass-1.1% -0.1% -1.9% -0.1%

Tough industry, in its third year of decline. Some

businesses allowed to operate to supply essential

workers (2018: -1.7% | 2019: -1.5%)

All other retailers -6.7% -0.8% 2.5% 0.3%

Feb growth highest in 20 months. Mar -6.7% from this

large industry, typically 12% of retail sales (Mar: 11%).

Diversity could see it rebound ahead of textiles and

furniture (2019: +1.8% | 2018: +8.3%)

TOTAL 2.7% 2.7% 1.9% 1.9%

SOURCE: StatsSA

OUTLOOK

• With only essentials for sale under lockdown level 5

and the ‘risk adjusted’ approach to reopening the

economy, industries will report massive declines in

sales in Apr, the extent of which will be unlike

anything recorded in recent history


SOURCE: Nielsen: May 2020 Webinar: “COVID-19: Decoding the New Normal” |

COVID-19 Community Mobility Report: Google


Retail Trade Sales: COVID-19 Lockdown

.Sectors have been under lockdown to varying degrees with only essential

products and services allowed under level 5

Share of Wallet and Anticipated Direction of the Shift in the ‘New Normal’

GAIN SHARELOSE SHARE

Community Mobility

compared to base (3/1 – 6/2/20)Level 5 Level 4 Level 3

Community Mobility -46% -23% -14%

Shopping trends seen in lockdown

• Focus on health: Hygiene safeguards and immune boosters

• Liquid soap sales +600% growth | antiseptics +233% | vitamins +81% | toilet

paper +100%

Pantry and lockdown preparation

• Mar 2020 was the biggest month-end at R9.3bn, bigger than Black Friday

• Some consumers had to wait for payday during lockdown to stock up on canned

and shelf-stable goods

• Quantities were limited by retailers and prices were monitored

• +100% growth in long-life milk | rice | pasta | oil | canned and frozen veg

Life in lockdown

• Less frequent shopping – shop closer to home – increasing support for local and

micro-local – less promotional activity

• Home brewing: yeast +232% | pineapple sales increased

• Baking supplies popular, egg prices increased

Share of wallet

• As shown in the chart alongside, home food and beverages, already taking 20%

of wallet, is expected to increase share as entertainment, dining out and travel

lose share

Community Mobility

• Measuring how much moving around takes place in a community

• Using data from Google, compared to base of visits in early 2020 level 5 saw

mobility decline -46%, with -23% in level 4 and -14% in level 3

Increased online shopping

for food and beverages


SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 2 months after reported month | Jul represents a new sample | Feb 2020 results delayed


Wholesale Trade Sales - 2015 Constant Prices

Wholesale Trade Sales

% Annual Growth

2015 2.7%

2016 2.3%

2017 -3.2%

2018 -0.1%

2019 -1.3%

• StatsSA defines a wholesaler as ‘an

enterprise deriving 50% or more of its

turnover from sales of goods to other

businesses and institutions’

• Wholesale trade sales for Mar 2020 declined

-5.5% to R145bn at 2015 constant prices (YoY)

• Owing to the COVID-19 lockdown the collection

rate for the data for the Feb 2020 report was

lower than typical – as such StatsSA has

indicated that revisions may be larger than

normal, with +1.4% after the revision (-0.9%

before). March’s collection rate is also lower than

usual.

• 2019 growth -1.3% (2018: -0.1%), 2020 YTD

growth -0.7%

• Food wholesalers continued their nine-month

streak of positive growth with Mar 2020

increasing +3.0% YoY at current prices to

R30.2bn

• YTD growth for food wholesalers sits at +8.3%,

bolstered by +16.5% growth in Jan 2020. 2019:

+4.2% (2018: -0.1%)

OUTLOOK

• The decline in Mar is in response to the lockdown

and trading restrictions with wholesalers of non-

essential goods taking the biggest knock as their

customers prepared to close

• Apr results will be hit even harder

Disclaimer

These materials and the information contained herein are collated by Ti* refencing a wide range of public domain data sources, face-to-face

interview, retailer presentations and financial reports, and are intended to provide general information about the South African consumer

goods trading environment and selected retailers and are not intended as an exhaustive treatment of such subjects.

Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information published in this work is accurate, your use of these and the information

contained herein is at your own risk. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect

your or our business, and Ti makes no express or implied representation or warranties regarding accuracy of the information herein.

Ti will not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or any other dames whatsoever, whether in an

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information contained herein.

Ti expressly disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitness for a particular purpose,

non-infringement, compatibility security, and accuracy.

*Ti refers to The Retail Workshop (Pty) Ltd trading as Trade Intelligence

Copyright © 2020 Trade Intelligence. All rights reserved. Copyrights subsists in this work. No part of this work may be reproduced in any form

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Carey Leighton | Associate Economic Analyst

south african economic report | updated to end june 2020 · q4/2019: -7 south african economic...

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