source: time series data library monthly minneapolis public drunkenness intakes jan.’66-jul’78...
TRANSCRIPT
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Source: Time Series Data Library
www.datamarket.com
MONTHLY MINNEAPOLIS PUBLIC DRUNKENNESS INTAKES JAN.’66-JUL’78
Meghan Burke
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GOALS Provide a descriptive analysis of this time
series Develop the best models to forecast
future monthly Minneapolis public drunkenness intakes
Understand the time series structure
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INITIAL TIME SERIES PLOT
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TIME SERIES COMPARISONInitial
Adjusted
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TIME SERIES COMPARISON
Initial Adjusted
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MODEL COMPARISONS
Best Smoothing Models: Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Winters Method ARIMA (0, 0, 1)
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SEASONAL EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
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WINTERS METHOD
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ARIMA (0,0,3)
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FORECAST PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODELS
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COMPARING FORECAST PREDICTIONS
Best Smoothing Model Seasonal Exponential Smoothing
Model MAPE MAE
Seasonal Exponential Smoothing 14.13256252% 38.52444229Winters Method 14.13256243% 38.52444203ARIMA (0,0,3) 21.72210497% 60.33186319
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CITATION
David E. Aaronson, C. Thomas Dienes, and Michael C. Musheno,Changing the Public Drunkenness Laws: The Impact of Decriminalization, 12Law & Soc'y Rev.405 (1977),
Available at: http://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/facpubs/113