source: cru/metoffice, uk
DESCRIPTION
“Climate change in the Netherlands” Albert.Klein.Tank @ KNMI.nl UGV symposium Global Change, 22 March 2006. Source: CRU/MetOffice, UK. Since 1975, warming dominates in all seasons, except Autumn. Source: Klein Tank, 2004. Source: IPCC, TAR, Chapter 2, 2001. upper 10-ptile 1961-1990 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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“Climate change in the Netherlands”
Albert.Klein.Tank @ KNMI.nl
UGV symposium Global Change, 22 March 2006
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Source: CRU/MetOffice, UK
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Since 1975, warming dominates in all seasons, except Autumn
Source: Klein Tank, 2004
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Source: IPCC, TAR, Chapter 2, 2001
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upper 10-ptile 1961-1990
the year 1996
lower 10-ptile1961-1990
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upper 10-ptile 1961-1990
the year 1996
lower 10-ptile1961-1990
“cold nights”
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upper 10-ptile 1961-1990
the year 1996
lower 10-ptile1961-1990
“cold nights”
“warm nights”
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Station De Bilt (The Netherlands)
warm nights
cold nights
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Observed trends (days per decade)for 1951 to 2003
Alexander et al., J.Geophys.Res., 2006
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Relation between relative trend bq/X required for 80% detection probability (5% level) and series length Nfor extreme events with average return period Tret
Source: Klein Tank and Können, J. Climate, 2003
21365~ retTXbq
6x
23~ NXbq
3x
Day-count indices of extremes
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Geostrophic winds based on pressure triangles; blue circles are 95th and red crosses 99th percentiles (standardized units)
updated from: Alexandersson et al., Climate Res., 2000
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Wind study the Netherlands 1962-2002
Smits, Klein Tank, Können, Int.J.Climatol., 2005
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Observed trends for 1962-2002
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Annual precipitation Netherlands
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Precipitation fraction due to very wet days
1) Identify very wet days using a site specific threshold = 95th percentile at wet days in the 1961-90 period
2) Determine fraction of total precipitation in each year that is due to these days
3) Trend analysis in series of fractions
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eca.knmi.nl
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Groisman et al., 2005
“Amplified” response of very wet days(trends over last 50 yr)
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Temperature
Source: IPCC TAR, 2001
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Source: IPCC AR4 simulations (partly available at: climexp.knmi.nl)
+5.8°C
+1.4°C
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Source: Katsman,
2006
Sea level change globally
Departures in the Eastern North Atlantic
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Summer precipitation change inHadley Centre climate model simulations
blue = daily extremes
red = seasonal total precipitation
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Source: Selten, Dijkstra, Kliphuis, et al., CLIVAR, 2003
simulation 19simulation 7
CHALLENGE project(62 model-simulations of August rainfall totals
in NL)
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KNMI will soon present new climate change scenarios for the Netherlands, which replace the WB21 scenarios from 2000:
29 May 2006
THANKS !
htpp://eca.knmi.nl
http://www.knmi.nl/scenarios
mailto: Albert.Klein.Tank @ KNMI.nl