solar energy technologies, markets, co 2 emissions, impact on energy system bit bang, sustainable...
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Solar Energy
Technologies, markets, CO2 emissions, impact on energy system
Bit Bang, Sustainable Energy theme 1.4. 2015
Petra Lundström, Fortum Power and Heat Oy
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Solar EconomySolar based production with high overall system efficiency
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Sun
Ocean
Traditionalenergy production Exhaustible fuels that
burden the environment
Coal GasOil
Advancedenergy productionEnergy efficient and/or
low-emission production
Nuclear today
Nucleartomorrow
CHP
CCS
Bio
Copyright © Fortum Corporation
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Changing energy system
Storage
Active ConsumerDemand
Response
Lo
w
Effi
cie
ncy
H
igh
Effi
cie
ncy
High Emissions Emission free
Interconnectors
Smart applications
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Solar energy availability
Source: Research Institute for Solar Energy
Global horizontal irradiation (kWh/m2 per year)
Total amount of solar energy incident on the surface of the Earth is 800 million TWh per year. That is more than 5000 times the annual global primary energy demand.
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Solar energy availability in EuropeYearly solar horizontal irradiation availability in Europe
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200
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600
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1200
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2000
kW
h/m
2
Diffuse
Beam
Source: Beam direct sun and diffuse sky irradiation calculated from European Test Reference Years
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How much electricity could be produced in theory ?
With a PV system of 15% efficiency, a module area of 25 km x 25 km would be needed to produce the yearly electricity consumption in Finland.
To produce all world’s electrity consumption, an area equal to 40% of Finland would be needed.
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Three main solar energy technologies with unique characteristics
Photovoltaics, PV/CPV Solar Thermal, STConcentrating
Solar Power, CSP
Power Residential to utility scale
Power & heatCommercial to utility scale
Heat & coolingResidential to comm. scale
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Solar energy conversion technologies
Photovoltaics (PV) global installed capacity 200 GW• Can utilise both direct beam sunlight and diffuse skylight• Crystalline silicon cells (90% of the current PV market)• Thin film cells (10% of the current PV market)• Organic and dye-sensitised cells (laboratory to pilots)
Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) installed capacity 5 GW• Conventional technology with steam turbines, requires high direct sunlight
Concentrating Photovoltaics (CPV) mainly pilot projects, installed capacity 0.3 GW• High efficiency systems with lenses, requires high direct sunlight
Solar thermal heating systems installed capacity 300 GW• Collector systems that heat air or water• China the biggest market by far
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Solar PV cell technologies and typical module efficienciesMonocrystalline silicon
15-21%Multicrystalline silicon
14-17%Thin film7-14%
Polymer< 10%
Dye-sensitised< 10%
Concentrating PV30-35%
Global cumulative capacity will be doubled again in three years
• Cumulative capacity will be doubled from 2013 to 2016
• European share of cumulative capacity will decrease below 50% by the end of 2014
• China will surpass Germany’s cumulative capacity in 2015
• Germany is already producing 6% and Italy 8% of its electricity consumption with PV
• Cumulative capacity will exceed 1.5 GW in 30 countries by 2018
Source: Global market outlook for photovoltaics 2014-18 (EPIA, June 2014)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
E2014
E2015
E2016
E2017
E2018
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OtherIndiaAustraliaJapanUSAChinaR. of EuropeUKFranceSpainItalyGermany
Cu
mu
lati
ve
ca
pa
cit
y (
GW
)
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Global solar generation will grow from 1% to 30% of consumption
Source: IEA Solar Photovoltaic Energy Technology Roadmap (2014)
2014 2030 20500
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Global PV generationA
nn
ua
l ge
ne
rati
on
(T
Wh
)
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PV module spot market price decreased by 80% during 2009-12
Sources: Photon International, PV magazine
1/09
3/09
5/09
7/09
9/09
11/0
91/
103/
105/
107/
109/
1011
/10
1/11
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11/1
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123/
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1211
/12
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11/1
30.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0German spot market price for PV modules
Factory gate c-Si Mono c-Si Multi c-Si a-Si CdTe
PV
mo
du
le p
ric
e (
eu
ro/W
p)
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Solar PV power generation is becoming very competitive
Source for PV system turnkey price development: International Technology Roadmap for PV, 2013 (20% added to the estimated system cost)Real interest rate: 5% (nominal WACC minus inflation)O&M cost: 14 EUR/kW/yearUtilisation: Nordic 900, South France 1400, South Italy 1700 hours/yearSystem lifetime: 30 years
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230
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Nordic
South France
South Italy
PV
LC
OE
(E
UR
/MW
h)
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Average PV lifetime CO2 emissions compared with average European and Fortum generation mix
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AverageEuropeanmix 2010
Fortumaverage
mix 2010
FortumEuropeanaverage
mix 2010
PV SouthItaly,
manuf. withEuropeanaverage
mix
PV inSouth Italy,manuf. with
Fortumaverage
mix
PV inSouth Italy,manuf. withFortum EU
averagemix
PV inNordic,
manuf. withEuropeanaverage
mix
PV inNordic,
manuf. withFortumaverage
mix
PV inNordic,
manuf. withFortum EU
averagemix
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
g/k
Wh
Utility scale PV plant: Amrit 5.4 MWp solar power plant
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• In operation since March 2012
• Fortum acquisition June 2013
• Utilisation 1760 kWh/kWp/a
• First Solar modules and SMA inverters
Greenfield PV power plant in Madhya Pradesh
• Greenfield power plant, inaugurated in January 2015
• Production 1 700 kWh/kWp/a
• 125 000 CdTe First Solar PV modules, 15 inverters
• Module field covers an area of 28 hectars
Kapeli PV power plant ,12 MWp
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Rooftop solar: 20 kW Café Carusel (Helsinki)• Commissioning 2013
• Annual yield 19 500 kWh
• Peak power 19,6 kW
• 80 Naps 245W PV modules
• 2 SMA inverters
• Mounting system from Hilti
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Discussion topic - ALL
• Intermittent renewables – both wind and solar power – are growing significantly in many countries
• Intermittent means that power production varies depending on time of day and natural conditions (windiness and cloudiness)
• Electricity consumers are increasingly becoming small-scale intermittent producers
• What is the impact of this development on the energy business?
Average power prices in Nordics and Germanywere very close in December 2014 …
Fortum / Hydro Power and Technology division18
… but hourly prices were very different !Price pattern is getting more important than average price
Fortum / Hydro Power and Technology division19
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The traditional value chain in energy business is changing
• A traditional utility business value chain:
• Growth of decentralized and intermittent production changes the picture:– Also consumption must become more flexible
– Consumption and small scale production either for autoconsumption or for sale go hand in hand• The customer needs both to buy and sell electricity
– More storage capacity needed, initially at the customer’s in a smaller scale
– Many new decentralized production technologies are renewable, i.e. no fuel supply
– Well functioning electricity market and distribution grids are of vital importance
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Background material
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Concentrating PV (CPV)
To increase the efficiency of PV, it is possible to join together several thin layers of semiconductors that each capture a different wavelength of the solar spectrum. Best 3-junction cells (Ge/GaInAs/GaInP) exceed 40% efficiency. New 4-junction cells are expected to reach 50%.
These cells are expensive and to reduce material cost, they are used with concentrator systems (lenses and mirrors). Concentration ratios can be up to 1000X which means that only 10 cm2 of cell is needed for 1 m2 module. Concentrating PV requires high direct sunlight and a sun-tracking device.
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Concentrating solar (thermal) power (CSP)Another way of utilising direct sunlight with tracking systems is concentrating solar thermal power (CSP). Reflectors are used to concentrate sunlight to a receiver and heat a medium (syntethic oil, water or molten salt) which in turn will heat up steam that is driven to turbine to generate electricity. Typical solar-to-electric efficiencies range from 15% (throughs) to 25% (dishes). A benefit of CSP is that heat can be stored or backup fuels used to generate electricity when the sun is not shining.
A CSP tower with a molten salt storage
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CSP reflector systemsParabolic through Linear Fresnel reflector
Solar tower with heliostats Parabolic dishes
Parabolic throughs and linear Fresnel reflectors (LFR) have a line focus. Throughs have a mobile receiver whereas LFR receiver is fixed.
Solar towers and parabolic dishes have a point focus. Tower receiver is fixed whereas dishes are mobile and have an independent engine/generator (such as Stirling engine or microturbine)
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Solar PV growth continues outside Europe- China, Japan and USA the biggest markets
Source: Global market outlook for photovoltaics 2014-18 (EPIA, June 2014)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
E2014
E2015
E2016
E2017
E2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Other
India
Australia
Japan
USA
China
R. of Europe
UK
France
Spain
Italy
Germany
An
nu
al m
ark
et
(GW
)
• The annual PV market is likely to be around 45-55 GW for the next few years
• China will stay the biggest market, Japan boom continues at least 2014, USA expected to grow steadily
• European market share has decreased from 75% in 2011 to below 25% in 2014
• There is significant upside up to 70 GW in 2018 if favorable policies are in place
Fortum – business in solar energy
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• Fortum buys back surplus energy from solar energy systems
• Price is linked to NordPool spot-price – Fortum commission (0.003 euro/kWh)
• Remote readable and hourly measurement based energy meter is required
• Launched 2012 in Finland and Sweden
• Fortum as interface to the customer and system integrator of turn-key solutions
• Standardized solar kits of 6, 9 12 or 18 panels – 1.3 to 3.8 kW
• Fortum is seeking for growth opportunities in countries with good solar energy resources and synergies for other Fortum growth initiatives
• Fortum as owner and operator of solar power plants. Typical size > 5 MW
• In June 2013, Fortum acquired a 5.4 MW solar power plant in India
• In January 2015, Fortum commissioned a 12 MW solar plant in India
Solar kits for residential customersB2C
Buyback of surplus production
Energy producer with large scale solar energy farms
Solar solutions for commercial customersB2B
• > 20 kW tailored systems for commercial customers
• Fortum as energy partner offering turnkey solutions according to facility specs and customer needs
• Supply and installations in cooperation with 2-4 trusted partners
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Solar PV (multicrystalline silicon) manufacturing process
Balance of system includes all other system components except the module: inverters, cables, mounting, installation work etc.
PV (large) systemcost breakdown
Silicon
Ingot/wafer
Cell
Module
Balance of system
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Energy payback time depends on the solar conditions
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
Monocrystalline Multicrystalline
En
erg
y p
ay
ba
ck
tim
e (
ye
ars
)
Sun belt
South Europe
Germany
Source: Update of energy payback time data for crystalline silicon PV modules (Thomas Wetzel, 26th European PVSEC, 2011)Solar PV electricity production: Sunbelt 1800, South Europe 1275, Germany 1000 kWh/kWpeak
Energy payback time for crystalline silicon modules at various locations