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Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016

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Page 1: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and TechnologyGaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016

Page 2: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Forecast for Solar PV Growth

2

Source: IEA Solar Photovoltaic Energy, Technology Roadmap, 2014

Page 3: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Market Outlook Near Term

3

CONFIDENTIAL

1 2 26 7

16

29 30

40 41

51

73

105

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

GWdc

Annual Installed PV

Cumulative Forecast

2016‐2021 CAGR = 7%

Rapidly growing demand for solar energy and solar silicon

Source: GTM Research Global Solar Demand Monitor G2 2016

Major shifts in the global solar market in 2016:1.China:  FIIT pullback of 11% and major grid curtailment2.U.S.:  Total solar installations eclipsed 1 million = 27.5 GW3.Japan:  Scaling back FIT support – 12% drop in 2016 demand

4.U.K.:  FIT pullback of 65% – 45% drop in 2016 demand5.India:  25 GW tender pipeline

Page 4: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Market Outlook

4

CONFIDENTIAL

Cumulative Global PV Installations 2016

Page 5: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Price Declines Are Opening Up New Markets…

More Sun

Residential Electricity Price 2014Residential PV LCOE: 2014 and 2020

5 CONFIDENTIAL

LCOE2014LCOE2020

Spain

Germany

Italy

Denmark

France

NetherlandsSwitzerland

UKPortugal

Romania

Greece

Czech RepublicSlovakia

Saudi ArabiaSouth AfricaChina

Japan

Australia

Southern China: Hainan

Hawaii

California

TexasUSACanada Mexico

Brazil Chile

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500

(USD

/Mwh)

(kwh/kw/year)

50GW

EMEA ASOC AMER

PotentialResidentialPV Market

North India

South India

100GW

Page 6: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

6

Systems are increasing in size

Page 7: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Solar Costs Continue to DeclineDeclining Solar Costs Driven By Higher Efficiency, Lower Production Costs, Innovative Financing Solutions

7 CONFIDENTIAL

Page 8: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Module prices through 2035 based on learning curve

8

Source: IEA Solar Photovoltaic Energy, Technology Roadmap, 2014

Page 9: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

15.5%

16.0%

16.5%

17.0%

17.5%

18.0%

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Costs

 (% of M

odule

)

Costs

 ($/W

)

Rest of Module ($/W)

Silicon ($/W)

Silicon (% of Module Cost)

Value of Silicon within the Solar Value

9

Polysilicon remains the single most valuable component of the solar value chain

Silicon % of All‐In Module Costs

Silicon Ingot / Wafer Cell Module

Source: Photon Consulting

CONFIDENTIAL

Page 10: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Silicor – Unique in the Solar Industry

10

Silicor is poised to become the world’s lowest cost producer of solar grade silicon— Expected cash costs ~$7/kg after ramp up, 40% below  industry average — Roughly ½ the capital costs ($36/kg) of best‐in‐class competitors— Patent protected technology developed and owned by Silicor and proven 

through years of commercial production and sale

Silicor will break ground on a 21,000MT manufacturing facility in Iceland next to a deep water port in Q1 2017 ‐ Iceland has free trade agreements with China and the EU enabling it to ship all of its product virtually duty free

Sales agreements in place for over 100% of facility output

CONFIDENTIAL

Page 11: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Silicor’s Simple and Disruptive Technology

11

MG‐Si dissolved, not gasified, at relatively low temperatures 

Uses a molten aluminum metal solvent

Aluminum extracts impurities from MG‐Si during three separate passes

Patented process

Dissolve  Silicon in Aluminum

Harvest Solar   Silicon Flakes

Aluminum Acid Wash 

Directional Solidification

Finished Solar Silicon

With each pass, solidified “solar flakes” are harvested 

Master alloy is removed

Master alloy contains aluminum, polysilicon impurities and 15‐20% of original silicon

Master alloy later sold to aluminum suppliers

Dissolves away aluminum from the surface of polysilicon flakes

Polyaluminumchloride (“PAC”) is created

PAC later sold to water treatment facilities for use in water purification

Melt flakes in a furnace, cast and directional solidification molds

Polysilicon allowed to solidify into an ingot

1 2 3 4 5

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

3x

3x

Cutting and packaging

Step 5

Silicor Purification Process

CONFIDENTIAL

Page 12: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Cell Chart – Cell Performance – η (Eta) %

12

PERC Cells

HP‐MC

Page 13: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Environmentally Friendly Production ProcessLow‐energy, waste‐free process• 2/3 less energy than traditional manufacturing 

methods• Focus on eliminating harmful inputs and 

emissions– No SO2– No fluoride– Only 60 tons of particulate (vs. 10,000 tons 

annually in Reykjavík by studded tires) – Less than 50 tons of CO2/year 

• Safe, saleable by‐products:– Aluminum master alloy ‐ used by the 

auto/aviation industries to enhance component strength and lower weight

– Poly‐aluminum chloride (PAC) ‐ used in water purification and food industries

Page 14: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Environmentally Friendly Production Process

Low‐energy, waste‐free process• 2/3 less energy than traditional manufacturing methods• Focus on eliminating harmful inputs and emissions• Safe, saleable by‐products:

– Aluminum master alloy ‐ used by the auto/aviation industries to enhance component strength and lower weight

– Poly‐aluminum chloride (PAC) ‐ used in water purification and food industries

…and world’s first fossil fuel free, carbon‐neutral silicon manufacturing facility• To offset the already low CO2 emissions from its Iceland plant, Silicor has 

committed to plant trees to create a carbon neutral facility• 2,800 tons of CO2 emissions per year (48 process, 2,750 vehicles), offset by 

approximately 25k trees planted, resulting in carbon neutral manufacturing

Page 15: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Commercial Manufacturing in Iceland

15 CONFIDENTIAL

Plant Profile• 1M square foot footprint• Up to 21,000MT solar silicon 

production• 450 full‐time workers • Equipment from SMS Siemag• Construction by MT Højgaard

Why Iceland?

• Free trade with China

• Low cost, clean power 

• Existing infrastructure in place 

• Local supply and off‐take partners

Page 16: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Iceland Plant Layout

16

Dissolve Silicon in Aluminum

Silicon Flakes

Aluminum Acid Wash

Directional Solidification

Finished Solar Silicon

23

All project development has been completed; construction to begin upon close of financing

Page 17: Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and … Energy Growth, Market Development and Technology GaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016 Forecast for Solar PV Growth 2 Source: IEA Solar

Geographic Expansion Strategy

Silicor is pursuing its second plant site in a number of key markets with low electricity prices and a large metals sector

Quebec?

Mississippi?

Iceland

Saudi Arabia?

17 CONFIDENTIAL

Norway?

Potential Sites in Asia?

Denmark?

UAE?