solar energy growth, market development and … energy growth, market development and technology...
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Solar Energy Growth, Market Development and TechnologyGaAS Annual Meeting- October 2016
Forecast for Solar PV Growth
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Source: IEA Solar Photovoltaic Energy, Technology Roadmap, 2014
Market Outlook Near Term
3
CONFIDENTIAL
1 2 26 7
16
29 30
40 41
51
73
105
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
GWdc
Annual Installed PV
Cumulative Forecast
2016‐2021 CAGR = 7%
Rapidly growing demand for solar energy and solar silicon
Source: GTM Research Global Solar Demand Monitor G2 2016
Major shifts in the global solar market in 2016:1.China: FIIT pullback of 11% and major grid curtailment2.U.S.: Total solar installations eclipsed 1 million = 27.5 GW3.Japan: Scaling back FIT support – 12% drop in 2016 demand
4.U.K.: FIT pullback of 65% – 45% drop in 2016 demand5.India: 25 GW tender pipeline
Market Outlook
4
CONFIDENTIAL
Cumulative Global PV Installations 2016
Price Declines Are Opening Up New Markets…
More Sun
Residential Electricity Price 2014Residential PV LCOE: 2014 and 2020
5 CONFIDENTIAL
LCOE2014LCOE2020
Spain
Germany
Italy
Denmark
France
NetherlandsSwitzerland
UKPortugal
Romania
Greece
Czech RepublicSlovakia
Saudi ArabiaSouth AfricaChina
Japan
Australia
Southern China: Hainan
Hawaii
California
TexasUSACanada Mexico
Brazil Chile
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500
(USD
/Mwh)
(kwh/kw/year)
50GW
EMEA ASOC AMER
PotentialResidentialPV Market
North India
South India
100GW
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Systems are increasing in size
Solar Costs Continue to DeclineDeclining Solar Costs Driven By Higher Efficiency, Lower Production Costs, Innovative Financing Solutions
7 CONFIDENTIAL
Module prices through 2035 based on learning curve
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Source: IEA Solar Photovoltaic Energy, Technology Roadmap, 2014
14.0%
14.5%
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Costs
(% of M
odule
)
Costs
($/W
)
Rest of Module ($/W)
Silicon ($/W)
Silicon (% of Module Cost)
Value of Silicon within the Solar Value
9
Polysilicon remains the single most valuable component of the solar value chain
Silicon % of All‐In Module Costs
Silicon Ingot / Wafer Cell Module
Source: Photon Consulting
CONFIDENTIAL
Silicor – Unique in the Solar Industry
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Silicor is poised to become the world’s lowest cost producer of solar grade silicon— Expected cash costs ~$7/kg after ramp up, 40% below industry average — Roughly ½ the capital costs ($36/kg) of best‐in‐class competitors— Patent protected technology developed and owned by Silicor and proven
through years of commercial production and sale
Silicor will break ground on a 21,000MT manufacturing facility in Iceland next to a deep water port in Q1 2017 ‐ Iceland has free trade agreements with China and the EU enabling it to ship all of its product virtually duty free
Sales agreements in place for over 100% of facility output
CONFIDENTIAL
Silicor’s Simple and Disruptive Technology
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MG‐Si dissolved, not gasified, at relatively low temperatures
Uses a molten aluminum metal solvent
Aluminum extracts impurities from MG‐Si during three separate passes
Patented process
Dissolve Silicon in Aluminum
Harvest Solar Silicon Flakes
Aluminum Acid Wash
Directional Solidification
Finished Solar Silicon
With each pass, solidified “solar flakes” are harvested
Master alloy is removed
Master alloy contains aluminum, polysilicon impurities and 15‐20% of original silicon
Master alloy later sold to aluminum suppliers
Dissolves away aluminum from the surface of polysilicon flakes
Polyaluminumchloride (“PAC”) is created
PAC later sold to water treatment facilities for use in water purification
Melt flakes in a furnace, cast and directional solidification molds
Polysilicon allowed to solidify into an ingot
1 2 3 4 5
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4
3x
3x
Cutting and packaging
Step 5
Silicor Purification Process
CONFIDENTIAL
Cell Chart – Cell Performance – η (Eta) %
12
PERC Cells
HP‐MC
Environmentally Friendly Production ProcessLow‐energy, waste‐free process• 2/3 less energy than traditional manufacturing
methods• Focus on eliminating harmful inputs and
emissions– No SO2– No fluoride– Only 60 tons of particulate (vs. 10,000 tons
annually in Reykjavík by studded tires) – Less than 50 tons of CO2/year
• Safe, saleable by‐products:– Aluminum master alloy ‐ used by the
auto/aviation industries to enhance component strength and lower weight
– Poly‐aluminum chloride (PAC) ‐ used in water purification and food industries
Environmentally Friendly Production Process
Low‐energy, waste‐free process• 2/3 less energy than traditional manufacturing methods• Focus on eliminating harmful inputs and emissions• Safe, saleable by‐products:
– Aluminum master alloy ‐ used by the auto/aviation industries to enhance component strength and lower weight
– Poly‐aluminum chloride (PAC) ‐ used in water purification and food industries
…and world’s first fossil fuel free, carbon‐neutral silicon manufacturing facility• To offset the already low CO2 emissions from its Iceland plant, Silicor has
committed to plant trees to create a carbon neutral facility• 2,800 tons of CO2 emissions per year (48 process, 2,750 vehicles), offset by
approximately 25k trees planted, resulting in carbon neutral manufacturing
Commercial Manufacturing in Iceland
15 CONFIDENTIAL
Plant Profile• 1M square foot footprint• Up to 21,000MT solar silicon
production• 450 full‐time workers • Equipment from SMS Siemag• Construction by MT Højgaard
Why Iceland?
• Free trade with China
• Low cost, clean power
• Existing infrastructure in place
• Local supply and off‐take partners
Iceland Plant Layout
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Dissolve Silicon in Aluminum
Silicon Flakes
Aluminum Acid Wash
Directional Solidification
Finished Solar Silicon
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All project development has been completed; construction to begin upon close of financing
Geographic Expansion Strategy
Silicor is pursuing its second plant site in a number of key markets with low electricity prices and a large metals sector
Quebec?
Mississippi?
Iceland
Saudi Arabia?
17 CONFIDENTIAL
Norway?
Potential Sites in Asia?
Denmark?
UAE?