soils and world food security - cmasc.osu.edu · soil erosion water = 1.1bha wind = 0.55bha...

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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center

Soils and World Food Security Dr. Rattan Lal


GIFS Conference, 14-16 June, Saskatoon

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THE ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVER

I = P x A x T P = Population A = Affluence T = Technology

Over the last 10,000 years, the number of humans has increased about a thousand-fold from 2- 20 million to 7.3 billion.

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NTHROPOGENIC

number of humans has increased about a thousand-fold from

1.0 1800

1.3 1850

1.7 1900 1.8

1910 1.9 1920

2.1 1930

2.3 1940

2.5 1950

3.0 1960

3.7 1970

4.4 1980 5.3

1990

6.1 2000

7.0 2011

7.5 2020

8.1 2030

8.6 2040

1.7

9.7 2050

11.2 2100

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2000 6896 1381 3357 280

EXPANSION OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL LAND

Population (106)

Agricultural Land (106 ha) Year Cropland Pasture land Irrigated

1 188 130 110 1800 989 420 510 8 2100 6896 1381 3357 280

Population (106)

Agricultural Land (106 ha) Year Cropland Pasture land Irrigated

1 188 130 110 1800 989 420 510 8

5


GLOBAL FERTILIZER USE (IFDC 2004; FAO 2015)

Year

Fertilizer Use (106 Mg) Total N P K

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2010 2012

<10 11.6 31.8 60.8 77.2 80.9 84.7 113 123

- 10.9 21.1 31.7 36.3 32.5 33.6 44 46

- 8.7 16.4 24.2 24.5 21.8 23.2 27 28

10 31.2 73.3 116.7 138.0 135.2 141.6 184 194

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GLOBAL PESTICIDE USE

Total: 2!106 Mg/yr

Europe : 45% USA : 25%

Others : 30%

Herbicides : 47.5% Insecticides : 29.5% Fungicides : 17.5%

Others : 5.5%

Source: De et al. (2014)

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Dyson (1999)

WORLD CEREAL YIELD 1951–1997

1951–1997 1951–1997

Met

ric to

ns p

er h

ecta

re

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INDICATORS OF HUMAN-ECOSYSTEM INTERACTIONS

Population

2015 – 7.3B 2050 – 9.7B 2100 – 11.2B

Soil Erosion

Water = 1.1Bha Wind = 0.55Bha

Secondary Salinization

20% of all irrigated lands

Algal Blooms

Regions: Great Lakes, Gulf of Mexico, Chesapeake Bay, Lake Taihu in China, Baltic Sea etc.

Loss of Agric. Land to Sealing and Urbanization

By 2030, global urban land cover will increase by 152 Mha or 10% of

current arable land area

Loss of Biodiversity

1000 to 10,000 sp./yr, background rate of 5 sp./yr

Tropical Deforestation

1990s = 8 Mha/yr 2000s = 7.6 Mha/yr

A region equivalent to Sri Lanka

Loss of Terrestrial C Pool

Land Use = 486 Pg Soil = 78 Pg

www.nrcs.usda.gov www.soils4teachers.org Lal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.com www.emaze.com

Groundwater Depletion

Ogalalla, Indo-Gangetic Plains, North China Plains,

etc.

C Pool

Plains, North China Plains, www.sustainableworks.org

C Pool

Lal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.emaze.comthewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015)

Groundwater Depletion Ogalalla, Indo-Gangetic

Plains, North China Plains, www.sustainableworks.orgthewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.sustainableworks.orgthewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.emaze.comwww.sustainableworks.orgwww.emaze.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) www.sustainableworks.orgLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.emaze.comthewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.sustainableworks.orgthewatchers.adorraeli.comwww.emaze.comthewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) www.sustainableworks.orgLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015) www.emaze.comLal (2015) thewatchers.adorraeli.comLal (2015)

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BIOTA 620 Pg

ATMOSPHERE 840 Pg

+4.5 Pg/yr

SOILS (3-M) 4,000 Pg

OCEAN 42,000 Pg + 2.3 Pg/yr

(i)! Surface layer: 670 Pg (ii)! Deep layer: 36,730 Pg (iii)! Total organic: 1,000 Pg

FOSSIL FUELS 4,130 Pg

(i) Coal: 3,510 Pg (ii) Oil: 230 Pg (iii) Gas: 140 Pg (iv) Other: 250 Pg

90 Gt/yr

MRT = 5Yr

MRT = 25Yr

Mean Residence Time (MRT) = 400Yr

MRT = 6Yr

BIOTA620 Pg

TMOSPHERE840 Pg

+4.5 Pg/yr PgPg

ATMOSPHERE

THE SHORT-TERM GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

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ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS (Pg) BY CARBON CIVILIZATION

I.! Land use : 486 (i)! Prehistoric : 320 (ii)! 1750-2010 : 136 (iii)! 2010-2030 : 30

II. Fossil Fuel combustion: 390 (i)! 1750-2010 : 200 (ii)! 2010-2030 : 190

These emissions have and will affect the ecosystems from which we derive food, feed, fiber, fuel and shelter.

The cause of Super-interglaciation

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HUBBERT CURVE FOR SOIL Sy

stem

-per

form

ance

S

Skrit Sopt. Skrit Soil (S) access

Suitable arable agricultural land 0.25 ha/capita

0.05 ha/capita? Land grab / civil unrest

Smax

Scrit

Soil Refugees

HUBBERT CURVE FOR SOILSy

stem

-per

form

ance

S

Skrit Sopt. Skrit Soil (S) access

Suitable arable agricultural land Suitable arable agricultural land 0.25 ha/capita 0.25 ha/capita

0.05 ha/capita? 0.05 ha/capita? Land grab / civil unrest Land grab / civil unrest

Smax

Scrit

Soil Refugees Soil Refugees

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1050

1025

1000

975

950

925

900

875

850

800 0

Wor

ld’s

Hun

gry

(106

)

1992 2002 2007 2010 2013 Year

0 2015

GLOBAL FOOD INSECURITY (FAO, 2015)

South Asia 35.0

Sub-Saharan Africa 26.5

Eastern Asia 19.8

South-eastern Asia 7.7

Latin American & the

Caribbean 5.6 Others 5.3

Chronically underfed ~ 0.8 billion

Micronutrient deficiency ~ 2 billion

Sub-Saharan Africa 26.5 Africa 26.5

Eastern Asia 19.8

Chronically underfed ~ 0.8 billion

Micronutrient deficiency ~ 2 billion

Carbon Management and Sequestration Center MDG of reducing hunger to 410 million by 2015 has not been met

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REQUIRED CEREAL YIELDS AND PRODUCTION TO MEET FUTURE DEMANDS

(WILD, 2003)

Year Yield (Mg/ha) Total Production (106M) 2005 2025 2050

3.27 3.60 4.30

2240 2780 3255 (6.00)

(4.40) (4553) (3629)

(with change to animal-based diet)

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THE RESOURCES USED FOR AGRICULTURE •! 38% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is used

for agriculture, •! 75% of agricultural land (3.73 Bha) is allocated

to raising animals, •! 70% of the global freshwater withdrawals are

used for irrigation, •! 30-35% of global greenhouse gas emissions

are contributed by agriculture, And yet 1 in 7 persons is food-insecure

and 2-3 in 7 are malnourished.

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MEETING FOOD DEMAND BY 2050 The world produces enough food to feed 10 billion people . Thus, food and nutritional security must be achieved by:

•! Reducing waste (30-50%),

•! Increasing access to food by addressing poverty, inequality, wars and political instability,

•! Improving distribution,

•! Increasing use of pulses and plant-based diet, petri-dish hamburgers, and alternate source of protein,

•! Accepting personal responsibility of not taking things for granted, and

•! Increasing agronomic productivity from existing land, restoring degraded lands, enhancing BNF by legumes and converting some agricultural land for nature conservancy without any conversion of natural land to agro-ecosystems, through sustainable intensification sustainable intensification and restoration of soil health.

15 No additional appropriation of land and water to agriculture

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The strategy is to produce more food:

•! from less land,

•! per drop of water,

•! per unit input of fertilizers and pesticides,

•! per unit of energy, and

•! per unit of C emission.

Produce more from less

•

•

•

•

•

Produce more

SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION

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Sustainable Soil Management •!!!!"#$%&'#!()&*!+,!-#./0#12!!•!!!!"#,$/31!(+,#%4!*/!()&*!+,!')&35#12!&31!!•!!!!6-#1+'*!()&*!(+%%!)&$$#3!7-/.!&3*)-/$/5#3+'!!!!!!!&31!3&*8-&%!$#-*8-9&:/3,!!•! ;3)&3'#!,/+%!-#,+%+#3'#!

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Accelerated erosion

Innovative Technology II

Innovative Technology I Subsistence

farming, none or low off-farm input soil degradation

New equilibrium

Adoption of RMPs

Time (Yrs) Lal, 2004

80

100

20

40 60 80 100 120 140 160

40

60

20

Rel

ativ

e So

il C

Poo

l

0

Maximum Potential

Rate !Y

!X

Attainable Potential

C Sink C

apacity

!t

•!Conservation Agriculture •!Biochar •!Agroforestry •!Desert. Control •! Afforestation •! Pasture Mgmt •!H2O harv., DSI •!Farming Systems

•Conservation Agriculture •Biochar •Agroforestry •Desert. Control • Afforestation • Pasture •H2O •Farming Systems

Conservation

Desert. Control Afforestation

Mgmt., DSI

MRT = Pool Flux

SOIL C SEQUESTRATION

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SOC AND SOIL HEALTH

Soil Organic Carbon

Physical I. Water ! Increase retention ! Decreases drought ! Reduces runoff and erosion ! Decreases infiltration ! Improves filtration II. Structure ! Increases aggregation ! Improves aeration ! Reduces crusting and compaction ! Improves tilth

Chemical I. Soil Fertility ! Reservoir of plant nutrients ! Increases N, P, S II. CEC ! Increases buffering ! Decreases leaching ! Increases surface area

Biological I. Biodiversity ! Improves soil biota ! Increases cycling ! Provides energy II. Activity ! Increase MBC ! Increases biopores

Ecological I. Elemental Cycling ! Improves cycling (N, P, S) ! Increase physio-chemical activity ! Increases use efficiency of N, P, S, H2O II. Productivity ! Increases productivity ! Improves produce quality ! Enhances stability

Biochemical Eco-physical

Lal (2016)

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CRITICAL LEVEL OF SOC FOR WHEAT YIELD

4000

3000

2000

1000

0 0 20 80 60 40

Soil Organic C (Mg ha-1)

Yiel

d (k

g ha

-1)

(Diaz-Zorita et al., 2002)

1.5-2.0%

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CROP YIELD INCREASE WITH INCREASE IN SOC BY MG C/HA

Crop Yield Increase (kg/ha.Mg C)

Sorghum 80 - 140

Maize 100 - 300

Soybean 20 - 50

Wheat 20 - 70

Rice 10 - 50

Millet 30 - 70

Beans 30 - 60

Lal, 2005

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GLOBAL SOIL ORGANIC CARBON POOL 0-40cm DEPTH

Total Pool = 850 Gt .... Batjes (1996)

0.4% Increase/yr = 3.6 Gt C/yr

OFF-SETTING OIL BY SOIL C SEQUESTRATION

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Soil Structure

Carbon Management and Sequestration Center Physical Quality

• Aggregation • Biopores • Available water capacity • Infiltration rate • Soil temperatures • Erodibility

Ecological Quality

• Erosion controls • Water quality • Sedimentation

Biological Quality

• MBC • Earthworm activity • Soil biodiversity

Chemical Quality

• Nutrient pool and dynamics • Soil reaction • Base saturation • CEC

Mulching &

Soil Health

Chemical Quality Chemical Quality Chemical Quality

• Sedimentation

Ecological Quality

Biological Quality

Soil Structure

• Erodibility

Mulching

Soil Structure

Ecosystem Processes

Elemental Transformations

Rhizopheric Processes

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NO-TILL FARMING AS AN EMERGING GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY

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CLAY

SAND

CLAY

SAND

Surface/Tile Drainage

(Ridge/Furrow) System

Minimum Tillage (Chisel Plowing)

No-Till (Cover-Cropping)

Dry Farming (Water Harvesting)

Plowing at the End of Rains

(Rough Seed Bed)

No-Till (Cover-Cropping

& Chiseling)

CLAY LOAM

SILTY CLAY LOAM

SILT LOAM

SANDY LOAM

LOAMY SAND

PER HUMID

HUMID SUB HUMID

SEMI ARID

ARID PER HUMID

HUMID SUB HUMID

SEMI ARID

ARID

Lal, 1984

SOIL GUIDE TO NO-TILL FARMING


WATER EROSION

WATER EROSION - CRUSTING

WATER LOGGING – WATER EROSION

WATER AND WIND EROSION

WIND EROSION DROUGHT STRESS

Source: Lal (1985)

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N, P, K, Zn, H2O

TOWARDS C-NEUTRAL AGRICULTURE

Chatting with plants

through molecular-

based signals

N, P, K, Zn, H O N, P, K, Zn, HN, P, K, Zn, H

No-till Farming INM

N, P, K, Zn, HN, P, K, Zn, H

No-till No-till INM

Soil biota and ecosystems services

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<8,*&+3&9%#!8,#!/7!,/+%!=!(

&*#-!-#,/8-'#,!

>/*#?!@)#!,*8A!*)&*!&$$#&-,!9#4/31!*)#!7-&.#!(/3B*!&$$#&-!+3!*)#!,%+1#!+*,#%7C!

AND THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES GENERATED

COUPLED CYCLING OF H2O, C, N, P

!"#$%&'(')$

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CREATING POSITIVE C BUDGET

Soil Carbon Sequestration Soil Carbon Depletion

Losses

Biochar Compost

Cover Crops Root Biomass Crop Residues

Erosion Leaching

Decomposition

Residue Compost

Root Biomass Erosion

Leaching Decomposition

Gains

Gains

Losses

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“Soil biota is the bioengine of the Earth”

There is no such thing as a free biofuel from crop residues.

ECONOMICS OF RESIDUE REMOVAL FOR BIOFUEL

30


ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUD CAUSED BY TRADITIONAL BIOFUELS

(NYT 4-16-09)

More plant nutrients are burnt in dung as household fuel than chemical fertilizers used/yr in India.

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Carbon Management and Sequestration Center • Extractive !"#$%&'()*+,%,-.&/.

• Depletion of SOC and Nutrients • Decline in Soil Structure

• Loss of Soil Resilience

• Decline in Ecosystem Functions and Services

• Loss of Soil biodiversity • Disruption of Key Processes

• Hunger • Malnutrition • Political Unrest • Civil Strife •! War and insecurity •! The Migrant Crisis The Migrant Crisis The Migrant Crisis

Severe Degradation

THE REGIME SHIFT BY EXTRACTIVE FARMING

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City 1950 2025 Growth Factor

Population (106)

IMPORTANCE OF URBAN AGRICULTURE

(Adapted from Kazmin, 2011)

City 1950 2025 Growth Factor

New Dehli 1.4 28.6 20.4

Calcutta 4.5 20.1 4.5

Bombay 2.9 25.8 8.9

Pune 0.6 6.6 11.0

Hyperabad 1.1 8.9 8.1

Bangalore 0.7 9.5 13.6 Madras 1.5 9.6 6.4 % of population living in cities of > 1 million

3.1%

15.6%

5.0

New Dehli 1.4 28.6 20.4 Calcutta 4.5 20.1 4.5

Bombay 2.9 25.8 8.9

Pune 0.6 6.6 11.0 Hyperabad 1.1 8.9 8.1

Bangalore 0.7 9.5 13.6

Madras 1.5 9.6 6.4 % of population living in cities of > 1 million

3.1 15.6 5.0

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POPULATION GROWTH IN AFRICAN CITIES (UN PUBLICATION ST/ESA/SER.A/274 2008)

City

Population (106) 1975 2007 2025 Growth (%/yr)

Accra 0.7 2.1 3.4 2.93 Addis 0.9 3.1 6.2 7.o Dar 0.6 2.9 5.7 4.39 Kinishase 1.5 7.8 16.8 3.89 Lagos 1.9 9.5 15.8 4.44 Nariobi 0.7 3.0 5.9 3.87

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Urbanization and Land

•! It takes 40,000 ha to provide accommodation and infrastructure to 1 million people

•! Annual increase of 75 million people, takes ~3 Mha of prime land out of production

•! Cities with population of " 1010 are 28 in 2015 and will be 41 in 2030.

•! A city of 10 million requires 6000 tones of food/day

USING TOP SOIL FOR BRICK MAKING IN ASIA TO ACCOMMODATE RAPID URBANIZATION

20-25% of food must be produced within the urban ecosystem on recycled nutrients and water

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•! Mining C has the same effect on global warming whether it is through mineralization of soil organic matter and extractive farming or burning fossil fuels or draining peat soils. •! Soil can be a source or sink of GHGs depending on land use and management

•! The potential of elite varieties can be realized only if grown under optimal soil conditions. •! Even the elite varieties cannot extract water and nutrients from any soil where they do not exist.

•! Soil are integral to any strategy of mitigating global warming and improving the environment. •! Sustainable management of soils is the engine of economic development, political stability and transformation of rural communities in developing countries.

•! Sustainable management of soil implies the use of modern innovations built upon the traditional knowledge.


Sustainable Soil

Management

1. Causes of Soil

Degradation

2. Soil Stewardship

& Human Suffering 3.

Nutrient, Carbon, &

Water Bank

4. Marginality Principle

5. Organic vs. Inorganic

Nutrients 6. Soil Carbon

& GHG Effect

8. Soil as Sink for

Atmospheric CO2

Atmospheric Atmospheric Atmospheric Atmospheric 7.

Soil vs.

Germplasm

9. Engine of Economic Development

10. Traditional Knowledge &

Modern Innovations

•! The biophysical process of soil degradation is driven by economic, social and political forces. •! Vulnerability to degradation depends on “how” rather than “what” is grown.

•! When people are poverty stricken, desperate and starving, they pass on their sufferings to the land. •! It is not possible to take more out of a soil than what is put in it without degrading its quality. •! Only by replacing what is taken can a soil be kept fertile, productive, and responsive to management

•! Marginal soils cultivated with marginal inputs produce marginal yields and support marginal living. •! Plants cannot differentiate the nutrients supplied through inorganic fertilizers or organic amendments. •! The strategy is of producing more from less.

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•! Animal Power •! Rotations

•! Sustainable intensification (SI)

•! Rhizospheric processes

•! Disease- suppressive soils

•! Soil-less agriculture

•! The nexus approach

•! Phytobiome management

•! Petri-dish veal

•! Insect/alternative protein

•! Agricultural robots

•! Smart-phone

extension

•! Recarbon-

ization of the biosphere

•! Farmscaping

•! Insect/alternative protein

•! Soil microbiome

•! Smart-phone

extension

•! Soil-less agriculture

•! Urban

agriculture

•! Space farming

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS

•! Hand Tools GR

EEN

REV

OLU

TIO

N

! M

achi

ne p

ower

!

Ferti

lizer

s !

Ger

mpl

asm

YEAR

REL

ATIV

E FO

OD

PR

OD

UC

TIO

N (M

g/ha

)

WORLD POPULATION (BILLIONS)

12

8

6

4

1

0.8

15 20

1750 1850 1950 Y

1975 2000 2025 2050 2015

20 20 0.8 1 3 4 (B

6 8 9.6 ) 7.6

!!C

onse

rvat

ion

agric

ultu

re !

Mic

ro-ir

rigat

ion

!

Pre

cisi

on fa

rmin

g !

Per

enni

al c

ultu

re

! C

ompl

ex ro

tatio

ns !

GM

Os

!! Improved cultivars

!! Biotech- nology

!! No-till farming

!! INM

!! IPM

! Carbon sequestration

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SOIL STEWARDSHIP

Soil stewardship and care must be embedded in every fruit and vegetable eaten, in each grain

ground into the bread consumed, in every cup of water used, in every breath of air inhaled, and in

every scenic landscape cherished.

Lal (2014)

soils and world food security - cmasc.osu.edu · soil erosion water = 1.1bha wind = 0.55bha...

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