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    2010

    103rd Annual Report

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    Goals and responsibilities of the Swiss National Bank

    Mandate

    The Swiss National Bank conducts the countrys monetary policy as

    an independent central bank. It is obliged by Constitution and statute

    to act in accordance with the interests o the country as a whole. Its primary

    goal is to ensure price stability, while taking due account o economic

    developments. In so doing, it creates an appropriate environment or

    economic growth.

    Price stabilityPrice stability is an important condition or growth and prosperity.

    Ination and deation, by contrast, impair economic activity. They complicate

    decision-making by consumers and producers, lead to misallocations o

    labour and capital, result in income and asset redistributions, and put the

    economically weak at a disadvantage.

    The SNB equates price stability with a rise in the national consumer

    price index o less than 2% per annum. Deation i. e. a protracted decline

    in price levels is considered to be equally detrimental to price stability.

    The SNB takes its monetary policy decisions on the basis o an ination

    orecast and implements them by steering the three-month Libor or Swiss

    ranc investments.Supplying the money market with liquidity

    The SNB provides the Swiss ranc money market with liquidity by

    inuencing the interest rate level in the money market.

    Cash supply and distribution

    The SNB is entrusted with the note-issuing privilege. It supplies the

    economy with banknotes that meet high standards with respect to quality

    and security. It is also charged by the Swiss Conederation with the task o

    coin distribution.

    Cashless payment transactions

    In the feld o cashless payment transactions, the SNB provides

    services or payments between banks. These are settled in the Swiss InterbankClearing (SIC) system via sight deposit accounts held with the SNB.

    Investment o currency reserves

    The SNB manages the currency reserves. These engender confdence

    in the Swiss ranc, help to prevent and overcome crises, and may be utilised

    or interventions in the oreign exchange market.

    Financial system stability

    The SNB contributes to the stability o the fnancial system. Within the

    context o this task, it analyses sources o risk to the fnancial system,

    oversees systemically important payment and securities settlement systems

    and helps to promote an operational environment or the fnancial sector.

    International monetary cooperationTogether with the ederal authorities, the SNB participates in

    international monetary cooperation and provides technical assistance.

    Banker to the Conederation

    The SNB acts as banker to the Conederation. It processes payments

    on behal o the Conederation, issues money market debt register claims

    and bonds, handles the saekeeping o securities and carries out money market

    and oreign exchange transactions.

    Statistics

    The SNB compiles statistical data on banks and fnancial markets,

    the balance o payments, direct investment, the international investment

    position and the Swiss fnancial accounts.

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    Swiss National Bank

    103rd Annual Report 2010

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    Preface

    Ladies and Gentlemen

    In accordance with art. 7 para. 2 o the National Bank Act (NBA), the

    Swiss National Bank (SNB) submits an annual accountability report to the

    Federal Assembly in which it outlines how it has ulflled its mandate as defned

    in art. 5 NBA. Furthermore, pursuant to art. 7 para. 1 NBA, the SNB submits

    its fnancial report to the Federal Council or approval, beore presenting it,

    together with the Audit Boards reports, to the General Meeting o Shareholdersor approval and attention.

    The frst part o the SNBs 103rd Annual Reportcomprises the account-

    ability report to the Federal Assembly (pp. 994). This is submitted to the

    General Meeting o Shareholders or inormation purposes only and does not

    require approval. It describes the economic and monetary developments in

    2010 and explains in detail how the SNB has ulflled its statutory mandate

    in particular the conduct o monetary policy and the SNBs contribution to the

    stability o the fnancial system. A summary o the accountability report is

    provided on pp. 1013.

    The global economy recovered in 2010 ater the sharp downturn in

    2008 and 2009. In Switzerland, GDP was, in act, back to pre-crisis levels bythe second hal o the year. However, considerable uncertainty about the sus-

    tainability o the upturn remained throughout the year and downside risks

    were prevalent. The fnancial market recovery, in particular, suered a setback

    in spring 2010 due to the escalating sovereign debt crisis in Europe. The Euro-

    pean authorities managed to stabilise the situation temporarily by means o new

    exceptional measures without, however, bringing about a sustained solution.

    The high level o public debt in numerous advanced economies as a result o

    the crisis remains one o the major economic challenges o the coming years.

    Under these circumstances, the SNB maintained its expansionary mon-

    etary policy in 2010. At the end o 2009, the threat o deation had receded to

    the extent that a certain appreciation o the Swiss ranc could be allowedwithout price stability being compromised. Accordingly, in the frst hal o 2010,

    the SNB rerained rom taking decisive action against every appreciation in the

    Swiss ranc, only doing so in the event o an excessive appreciation. This policy

    required large-scale purchases o oreign exchange in spring 2010 when the

    Swiss ranc came under considerable upward pressure in connection with the

    escalating European sovereign debt crisis. The SNB considered that a rapid

    and excessive appreciation o the Swiss ranc against the euro at that time

    would have placed the Swiss economy under such a strain that the threat o

    a deationary trend would again have come to the ore. The SNB did not want

    to run this risk. In the second hal o 2010, the economic recovery in Switzer-

    land and abroad consolidated to such an extent that the threat o deation inSwitzerland largely disappeared and the SNB was able to rerain rom carrying

    out any urther interventions on the oreign exchange market.

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    Swiss ranc liquidity in the banking system rose sharply in 2010 due

    to the SNBs extensive oreign exchange purchases. As a result, the banking

    system was in a position o excess liquidity vis--vis the SNB. The SNB there-

    ore adapted its procedure or implementing monetary policy and steering

    the three-month Libor. Under the new procedure, liquidity-absorbing repo

    transactions and SNB Bill issues replaced liquidity-providing money market

    operations in mid-2010. This has enabled the SNB to absorb a large part o

    the excess liquidity.

    The second part o theAnnual Reportcomprises the fnancial report orthe attention o the Federal Council and the General Meeting o Shareholders

    (pp. 97193). It includes the business report, which deals with organisational

    and operational developments at the SNB as well as its fnancial results. The

    fnancial report also includes the annual fnancial statements o the SNB

    (parent company), containing the balance sheet, income statement and notes

    (pp. 121162), the fnancial inormation on the stabilisation und (pp. 163

    172), and the consolidated fnancial statements (pp. 173190), as required

    under Swiss law.

    In 2010, the annual fnancial statements o the SNB (parent company)

    closed with a loss o CHF 20.8 billion, ollowing a proft o CHF 10.0 billion in

    the previous year. Distribution o unds by the SNB is based on the result othe parent company.

    Monetary policy, whose primary objective is price stability, must be

    conducted independently o balance sheet considerations. The oreign exchange

    purchases eected in the frst hal o 2010 in pursuit o this objective led to

    a strong increase in oreign currency investments. The appreciation o the

    Swiss ranc, which was particularly pronounced in the last weeks and days o

    the 2010 fnancial year, resulted in a loss o around CHF 26.5 billion on oreign

    currency positions.

    Bearing in mind these exceptional circumstances, the SNB has decided

    to set the allocation to the provisions or currency reserves or the past fnan-

    cial year at CHF 0.7 billion instead o CHF 4 billion. This will enable the distri-bution o CHF 2.5 billion or the 2010 fnancial year to the Conederation and

    the cantons, and the payment o CHF 1.5 million in dividends, to be carried

    out as planned. Despite the reduced allocation to provisions or currency

    reserves, the SNBs capital base remains strong.

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    This procedure provides the Conederation and the cantons with time to

    adjust to the new situation o a negative distribution reserve. For the SNB can-

    not exclude the possibility that proft distribution may have to be suspended or

    a certain period, and that uture distribution amounts may need to be smaller.

    The SNBs result has always been largely dependent on developments in the

    gold, oreign exchange and capital markets, and this will remain so in the

    oreseeable uture.

    The stabilisation und shows a proft o CHF 2.6 billion or the 2010

    fnancial year. Within one year, the SNBs loan to the stabilisation und hasbeen paid down rom just under CHF 21 billion to around CHF 12 billion.

    As a result o the good perormance o the stabilisation und, the con-

    solidated annual loss amounted to CHF 19.2 billion.

    We wish to thank the bank authorities and our employees or their

    hard work and valuable support over the past year.

    Berne and Zurich, 25 February 2011

    Hansueli Raggenbass Philipp M. Hildebrand

    President o the Bank Council Chairman o the Governing Board

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    Contents

    Preface

    9 Accountability report

    10 Summary

    14 1 Monetary policy

    41 2 Supplying the money market with liquidity

    56 3 Ensuring the supply and distribution o cash

    59 4 Facilitating and securing cashless payments

    63 5 Asset management

    71 6 Contribution to fnancial system stability

    84 7 Involvement in international monetary cooperation

    91 8 Banking services or the Conederation

    92 9 Statistics

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    97 Financial report

    99 Business report100 1 Legal ramework

    101 2 Organisation and tasks

    103 3 Corporate governance

    108 4 Resources

    111 5 Changes in bank bodies and management

    112 6 Business perormance

    121 Annual nancial statements of the Swiss National Bank(parent company)

    122 1 Parent company balance sheet as at 31 December 2010

    124 2 Parent company income statement and appropriation o proft or 2010

    125 3 Changes in equity (parent company)

    126 4 Notes to the annual fnancial statements o the parent company

    as at 31 December 2010

    161 5 Report o the Audit Board or the General Meeting o Shareholders

    163 Financial information on the stabilisation fund

    164 1 Introduction165 2 Stabilisation und balance sheet and income statement

    167 3 Notes to the fnancial inormation on the stabilisation und

    as at 31 December 2010

    173 Consolidated nancial statements174 1 Consolidated balance sheet as at 31 December 2010

    177 2 Consolidated income statement or 2010

    178 3 Changes in equity (consolidated level)

    179 4 Notes to the consolidated fnancial statements as at 31 December 2010

    189 5 Report o the Audit Board or the General Meeting o Shareholders

    191 Proposals of the Bank Council193 Proposals o the Bank Council to the General Meeting o Shareholders

    195 Selected information

    196 1 Chronicle o monetary events in 2010

    198 2 Bank supervisory and management bodies, Regional Economic Councils

    202 3 Organisational chart

    204 4 Publications207 5 Addresses

    208 6 Rounding conventions and abbreviations

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    8SNB

    Contents

    Accountabilityreport

    10 Summary

    14 1 Monetarypolicy

    14 1.1Background

    16 1.2Monetarypolicystrategy

    18 1.3Internationaleconomicdevelopments 22 1.4EconomicdevelopmentsinSwitzerland

    32 1.5Monetarypolicydecisions

    41 2 Supplyingthemoneymarketwithliquidity

    41 2.1Background

    42 2.2Monetarypolicyinstruments

    46 2.3Liquiditymanagementin2010

    52 2.4Emergencyliquidityassistance

    52 2.5Minimumreserves

    53 2.6CollateraleligibleforSNBrepos

    55 2.7RepoauctionsinUSdollars

    55 2.8SNBUSDBills 56 3 Ensuringthesupplyanddistributionofcash

    56 3.1Background

    56 3.2Ofcesandagencies

    57 3.3Banknotes

    58 3.4Coins

    59 4 Facilitatingandsecuringcashlesspayments

    59 4.1Background

    60 4.2Cashlesspaymentsin2010

    62 4.3TARGET2-Securities

    63 5 Assetmanagement

    63 5.1Background 64 5.2Investmentandriskcontrolprocess

    65 5.3Changesinandbreakdownofassets

    68 5.4Riskprole

    70 5.5Investmentperformance

    71 6 Contributiontonancialsystemstability

    71 6.1Background

    71 6.2Mainactivitiesin2010

    72 6.3Monitoringthenancialsystem

    74 6.4Measurestostrengthennancialstability

    76 6.5Oversightofpaymentandsecuritiessettlementsystems

    79 6.6Internationalcooperationonnancialmarketregulation 80 6.7Stabilisationfund

    84 7 Involvementininternationalmonetarycooperation

    84 7.1Background

    84 7.2InternationalMonetaryFund

    88 7.3BankforInternationalSettlements

    89 7.4OECD

    90 7.5Technicalassistance

    91 8 BankingservicesfortheConfederation

    92 9 Statistics

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    Accountabilityreport

    9SNB

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    SNB 10 Accountabilityreport

    On10March2011,theGoverningBoardoftheSwissNationalBank

    (SNB)submitteditsaccountabilityreportfor2010totheFederalAssemblyin

    accordancewithart.7para.2oftheNationalBankAct(NBA).Thereportis

    submittedtotheFederalCouncilandtheGeneralMeetingofShareholdersfor

    informationpurposesonlyanddoesnotrequiretheirapproval.

    Summary(1)TheSNBpursues amonetarypolicyservingtheinterestsofthe

    countryasawhole.Itmustensurepricestability,whiletakingdueaccount

    ofeconomic developments. Monetarypolicy affectsproduction and prices

    withaconsiderabletimelag.Consequently,itisbasedoninationforecasts

    ratherthancurrentination.TheSNBsmonetarypolicystrategyconsistsof

    threeelements:adenitionofpricestability,amedium-termconditionalina-

    tionforecast,and,atoperationallevel,atargetrangeforareferenceinterest

    rate,whichistheLiborforthree-monthinvestmentsinSwissfrancs.

    In2010,theSNBmaintaineditsexpansionarymonetarypolicy.It

    leftthetargetrangeforthethree-monthLiborunchangedat0.00.75%withtheintentionofkeepingtheLiborwithinthelowerpartoftherange,at

    around0.25%.

    Giventheseveredownturnintheglobaleconomy,aseriousthreatof

    adeationarytrendhademergedinSwitzerlandatthebeginningof2009.In

    ordertopreventthisthreatfrommaterialisingviaappreciationoftheSwiss

    franc,theSNBactedagainstanyappreciationintheSwissfrancwithrespect

    totheeurofromMarch2009on,interveningintheforeignexchangemarket

    toachievethisgoal.

    Bytheendof2009,theSNBconsideredthat,giventhecontinuing

    recoveryintheeconomy,thethreatofdeationhadreceded.Consequently,

    acertainappreciationintheSwissfranccouldbeallowedwithoutpricesta-bilitybeingcompromised.InDecember,theSNBthereforeannouncedthatit

    wouldact decisivelyonlyinthe eventof anexcessive appreciationofthe

    Swissfranc.Thispolicywasmaintainedthroughoutthersthalfof2010.

    Inspring2010,withtheescalationofthesovereigndebtcrisisin

    Europe,majortensionsaroseonnancialmarkets.Thisenvironmentresulted

    ina renewed ightto safe investments,and therewas substantial upward

    pressureontheSwissfranc.TheSNBconsideredthat,atthattime,arapid

    andexcessiveappreciationoftheSwissfrancagainsttheeurowouldhave

    placedtheSwisseconomyundersuchastrainthatthethreatofadeationary

    trendwouldhavecometothefore.Itwasnotpreparedtotakethisriskand

    thereforedecidedtoacquirelargequantitiesofforeigncurrency.

    Monetarypolicy

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    SNB 11 Accountabilityreport

    Towardsthemiddleoftheyear,therecoveryoftheSwissandglobal

    economyhadconsolidatedtosuchanextentthatthethreatofdeationin

    Switzerlandhadlargelydisappeared.InJune,theSNBthereforeconsidered

    thatanappreciationoftheSwissfrancwasnolongersuchathreattoprice

    stabilityandtheeconomyasithadbeenpreviously.Thusitrefrainedfrom

    carryingoutanyfurtherinterventionsontheforeignexchangemarketinthe

    secondhalfoftheyear.

    With its prudent policy, the SNB contributed to the recovery of

    theSwisseconomy.Bythethirdquarter,GDPhadreachedthesamelevelasbeforethecrisis.Overall,GDProseby2.6%in2010,afterhavingfallenby

    1.9%in2009.

    In 2010, price stabilitywasassured. The medium-termconditional

    inationforecastpublishedaspartofthequarterlymonetarypolicyassess-

    mentsindicatedalowlevelofinationinitially,althoughthispickedupat

    theendofthethree-yearforecasthorizon.Initsmonetarypolicydecisions,

    theSNBthereforedrewattentiontothefactthatitwouldnotbeableto

    maintainitsexpansionarymonetarypolicyindenitely.Giventhelowratesof

    interestandrisingrealestateprices,italsowarnedbanks,householdsand

    companiesnottotakeexcessiverisksinthenancingofrealestate.

    (2)TheSNBprovidesthemoneymarketwithliquidity.Inthisway,itimplementsmonetarypolicyand,whennecessary,actsaslenderoflastresort.

    In2010,Swissfrancliquidityinthebankingsystemrosesharplyduetothe

    extensivepurchasesofforeignexchange,andthethree-monthLiborfellbelow

    thetargetedlevelof0.25%.Intheprocess,thebankingsystemmovedinto

    apositionofexcessliquiditywithrespecttotheSNB.Consequently,theformer

    procedureforimplementingmonetarypolicyandmanagingthethree-month

    Liborhadtobeadapted.Thenewprocedure,whichhasbeeninplacesince

    mid-2010,isbasedonrepeatedabsorptionofexcessliquiditybymeansof

    liquidity-absorbingreposandtheissuanceofSNBBills.Thankstothisnew

    managementregime,ithasbeenpossibletoneutralisetheexcessliquidityto

    alargeextent,withoutcausinganundesirabletighteninginmonetarypolicyintheprocess.

    (3)TheSNBisentrustedwiththenote-issuingprivilege.Throughthe

    banksandthepostalservice, itsupplies the economywithbanknotes and

    coins,thelatteronbehalfoftheSwissConfederation.Somelocalcashredis-

    tributioniscarriedoutthroughthecantonalbanks,whichactasagencieson

    behalfoftheSNB.In2010,theSNBandtheBernerKantonalbankagreedto

    closetheagenciesrunbythelatterinBienneandThun,sincethedemandfor

    cashserviceshaddeclinedattheagenciesinquestion.InOctober,theSNB

    andtheBaslerKantonalbankagreedtoclosetheagencyinBaselwitheffect

    fromtheendofJanuary2011.

    Liquiditysupply

    Cashsupplyanddistribution

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    SNB 12 Accountabilityreport

    Inthecourseoftheprojectondevelopingthenewbanknoteseries,

    itbecameclearattheendof2009thatthenewsecurityfeaturescouldbe

    enhancedbyfurtherdevelopment.TheSNBexpectsthattherstdenomination

    inthenewserieswillbeissuedtowardstheendof2012.

    (4)TheSNBfacilitatesandsecuresthefunctioningofcashlesspay-

    mentsystems.Itmaintainssightdepositaccountsforthebanks,steersthe

    SIC interbank payment system and participates in the relevant payment

    systembodies.Ithasalsobeguntoholdsightdepositaccountsforinsurance

    companies,aslongastheseareactiveintherepomarket.(5)TheSNBsassetsfullimportantmonetarypolicyfunctions.They

    consist mainly offoreigncurrency assetsand,toa lesserextent,nancial

    assetsinSwissfrancs.Theirsizeandcompositionisdeterminedbytheestab-

    lished monetary order and the requirements of monetary policy. Currency

    reservesincreasedsharplyin2010duetoforeignexchangepurchases.The

    foreigncurrencyacquiredduringthecourseoftheyearwasmainlyinvested

    ingovernmentbonds.Indoingso,theprinciplesofcurrencyandassetclass

    diversicationwereobservedasfaraspossible.Agoodinvestmentreturnwas

    achievedinlocalcurrenciesduetothedecliningyieldsandriskpremiaon

    asubstantialproportionofbonds,andto risingshareprices.However, in

    Swissfrancterms,returnswereverynegativebecauseofsubstantialexchangeratelosses.

    (6)TheNBAconfersontheSNBthemandateofcontributingtothe

    stabilityofthenancialsystem.Itfullsthismandatebyanalysingsources

    ofrisktothenancialsystem,overseeingsystemicallyimportantpayment

    andsecuritiessettlementsystems,andbeingactivelyinvolvedincreating

    theoperatingframeworkforthenancialsector.Indoingso,itworksinclose

    cooperationwiththeSwissFinancialMarketSupervisoryAuthority(FINMA),

    theFederalDepartmentofFinance(FDF)andforeignauthorities.In2010,

    amajorfocusoftheSNBsactivitiesintheareaofnancialstabilitywasits

    involvement inthe commission ofexpertsappointed by the Swiss Federal

    Counciltoexaminewaysoflimitingtheeconomicrisksposedbylargecom-panies. Thecommission investigated how toalleviate the too big tofail

    problem. At international level, theSNB participated inefforts to reform

    bankingregulation.Inaddition,monitoringoftheSwissbankingsystemwas

    intensied,withparticularattentionbeingpaidtothemortgagemarket.The

    SNBalsorevieweditsmandateanditssetofinstrumentsintheareaofnancial

    stability.Itconcludedthatitssetofpreventiveinstrumentsneededtobe

    strengthenedinthreeareas,thesebeingaccesstoinformation,therightto

    participateindrawingupregulationsandtheimplementationofregulations.

    Cashlesspayments

    Assetmanagement

    Financialsystemstability

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    SNB 13 Accountabilityreport

    TheoverallriskofthestabilisationfundsetupbytheSNBinOcto-

    ber2008topurchaseilliquidUBSassets,andmanagedbytheSNBwas

    signicantlyreducedin2010.Thiswasduetointerestpaymentsandrepay-

    mentsonstabilisationfundinvestmentsaswellasthesaleofassets.

    (7)TheSNBparticipatesininternationalmonetarycooperationactiv-

    ities.ImportantbodiesaretheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),theBank

    forInternationalSettlements(BIS),theFinancialStabilityBoard(FSB)and

    theOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD).In2010,

    amajorfocusofworkinthesebodieswasagaintheefforttostrengthenglobalnancialstability.AttheIMF,themainfocuswasonquotaandgov-

    ernance reform. The objective is to strengthen the IMFs capital base, in

    conjunction witha reallocation ofquotashares in favourof theemerging

    economies.AresultofthiswillbeareductioninSwitzerlandsquotashare.

    InNovember,KazakhstanjoinedtheSwissconstituency.Atthesametime,

    Uzbekistanleftit.

    (8)TheSNBprovidestheSwissConfederationwithbankingservicesin

    theareasofpaymenttransactionsaswellasliquidityandsecuritiesmanage-

    ment.In2010,itissuedmoneymarketdebtregisterclaimsandbondsforthe

    Confederationandcarriedoutpaymenttransactionsonitsbehalf.

    (9)TheSNBcompilesstatisticaldataonbanksandnancialmarkets,thebalance of payments, direct investment, theinternational investment

    positionandtheSwissnancialaccounts.Indoingso,itworkswiththe

    appropriateofcesoftheConfederation,FINMA,authoritiesfromothercoun-

    triesandinternational organisations.In 2010,themainfocus ofits work

    includedtherevisionofthebilateralagreementonstatisticsbetweenSwitzer-

    landandtheEuropeanUnion.

    Internationalmonetarycooperation

    BankingservicesortheConederation

    Statistics

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    SNB 16 Accountabilityreport

    1.2 Monetarypolicystrategy

    TheSNBmonetarypolicystrategysetsoutthewayinwhichthe

    NationalBankintendstofullitsmandate.Itconsistsofthefollowingthree

    elements:adenitionofpricestability,amedium-termconditionalination

    forecastandatoperationallevelatargetrangeforareferenceinterest

    rate,thethree-monthSwissfrancLibor.

    TheSNBdenespricestabilityasanannualriseoflessthan2%inthe

    consumerpriceindex(CPI).Deationisalsoregardedasafailuretoattaintheobjectiveofpricestability.Byaimingforaslightlypositiverateofination,

    theSNBtakesintoconsiderationthefactthatnoteverypriceincreaseis

    necessarily inationary, andthat ination cannot be measured accurately.

    Measurement problems arise, for example, when the quality of goods and

    servicesimproves.SuchchangesarenotfullytakenintoaccountintheCPI

    calculation;asaresult,thepathofmeasuredinationtrendsslightlyabove

    thatofactualination.

    TheinationforecastperformsadualfunctionintheSNBsmonetary

    policystrategy.Ontheonehand,itservesasthemainindicatorfortheinterest

    ratedecision,and,ontheother,itisalsoanimportantcommunicationtool

    fortheSNB.TheSNBreviewsitsmonetarypolicyonaregularbasistoensurethat

    itisappropriateforthemaintenanceofpricestability.Withthisinmind,it

    preparesaquarterlyforecastonthedevelopmentofinationoverthenext

    threeyears.Theperiodofthreeyearscorrespondsmoreorlesstothetime

    requiredforthetransmissionofmonetarypolicystimulitooutputandprices.

    Forecasts over such a long horizon involve considerable uncertainties. In

    preparingamedium-termforecast,theSNBtakesaccountofthefactthatthe

    effectsofmonetarypolicyarelaggedanditthereforehastoadoptaforward-

    lookingstanceinitsmonetarypolicydecisions.

    ForacountrylikeSwitzerlandwithitsstronginternationalintegra-

    tion, cyclicaldevelopments inthe global economy play animportantrole.Consequently,theinationforecastsarebasedonassumptionswithregardto

    thefuturepathoftheglobaleconomy.

    Inthemediumandlongterm,thepricetrenddependsessentiallyon

    thesupplyofmoney.Forthisreason,themonetaryaggregatesandloansare

    importantelementsinanumberofquantitativemodelsusedforforecasting

    ination.Asregardsthepathofinationintheshortterm,indicatorsrelating

    toeconomicdevelopments,aswellasexchangeratesandcommodityprices

    (oil),aregenerallyofgreatersignicance.

    TheSNBregularlyissuesstatementsonthedevelopmentofthemost

    importantindicatorsfactoredintoitsinationforecast.Itprovidesdetailsof

    themodelsitusesinanumberofitspublications.

    Monetarypolicystrategy

    Denitionopricestability

    Purposeoinfationorecast

    Preparingtheinfationorecast

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    SNB 19 Accountabilityreport

    Intheeuroarea,GDProseby1.7%in2010,whichwassignicantly

    lessthanintheUS.Moreover,thepaceoftherecoveryvariedconsiderably

    fromonecountrytoanother.

    Germanyexperiencedthestrongestupturn.Itsexportindustrybene-

    tedfromtheweakereuroandthestrongdemandfromtheemergingecon-

    omies.Thisledtoanimprovementinthelabourmarketsituation,whichalso

    lentmomentumtothedomesticeconomy.Inmanyothereurocountries,such

    as,forexample,France,investmentalsobegantorevive,yetunemployment

    remainedhigh.GreeceandIrelandwereinadifcultposition,sincebothofthemwerefacedwithgovernmentbudgetproblems.Rescuepackageswereput

    togetherforbothcountriesin2010.WhiletherecessioninGreecedeepened,

    theIrisheconomystagnated.

    Asiasawacontinuationofthestrongrecovery.In2010,theChinese

    economyexpandedsomewhatfasterthanin2009,atabout10.3%.Government

    transferpaymentsandarobustlabourmarketstimulatedprivateconsump-

    tion.However,thegovernmentcutbackinvestmentininfrastructure,which

    hadbeenincreasedpreviously,resultinginatransferofdomesticdemand

    fromthepublicsectortotheprivatesector.

    Theexport-orientedeconomiesofSouthKorea,Taiwan,HongKongand

    SingaporebenetedfromthevigorousdemandfromChina.Domesticdemandinmostoftheseeconomieswasalsohealthy.

    InJapan,GDPalsogrewstrongly,at3.9%.However,thisdidnomore

    thanrestorenearlytwo-thirdsoftheGDPlostduringtherecession.Thegrowth

    driverwas theexportindustry, whichbenetedfromthe strongdemand

    emanatingfromtheemergingeconomies.Privateconsumption,supportedby

    governmentstimulusprogrammes,alsorevived.

    Inationrates,asmeasuredbytheincreaseinconsumerprices,in-

    creased slightly worldwide, largely reecting rising prices for energy and

    commodities.Inanumberofemergingeconomies,inationalsoincreased

    asa resultofstrongeconomicgrowthandtheincreasingrateof capacity

    utilisation.Bycontrast,intheadvancedeconomiescoreinationameasureofinationthatexcludesfoodandenergypricesremainedlow.Thisreected

    theconsiderableexcesscapacitystillpersistinginmanyplaces.

    Mixedeconomicdevelopmentsintheeuroarea

    StrongupturninAsia

    Infationratescreepupslightly

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    In2010,mostcountriesretainedtheirexpansionaryscalpolicies,

    althoughthepressuretoconsolidategovernmentbudgetsincreasedinviewof

    highdecitsandgrowingsovereigndebt.IntheUS,federalinvestmentin

    infrastructureprojects,whichhadbeenresolvedin2009,cameintoeffect,

    whiletaxcutspassedinthesameyearremainedinforce.Atthesametime,

    however,thefederalstatesandlocalgovernmentsreducedexpenditureinorder

    tolowertheirbudgetdecits.Inthesecondhalfoftheyear,theJapanese

    governmentpassedfurthermeasuresaimedatsupportingtheeconomy.This

    wasareactiontotheimminentslowdowningrowth,duepartlytotheappre-ciationoftheyenagainsttheeuroandtheUSdollar.InEurope,thesovereign

    debtcrisisforcedanumberofcountriestopushaheadwithradicalausterity

    measuresaimedatconsolidatingtheirgovernmentnances.

    The central banks of most advanced economies maintained their

    expansionarymonetarypolicies.Inanenvironmentoflowinationandhigh

    unemployment,theUSFederalReservemaintainedthetargetrangeforits

    referenceinterestrateunchangedat0.00.25%.AtthebeginningofNovember,

    itannouncedasecondlarge-scalepurchaseprogrammeforlong-termtreasury

    bondsaspartofitsquantitativeeasingpolicy.Undertheprogramme,USD600

    billionoftreasurybondsaretobeacquiredbyJune2011.

    TheEuropeanCentralBanks(ECB)mainrenancingrate,whichhadbeenreducedto1.0%inmid-2009,washeldatthislevelthroughout2010,and

    theECBcontinuedtoofferunlimitedliquiditytobanks.FromMay,theECB

    alsopurchasedgovernmentbondsfrommemberstatesindifcultiesinorder

    tostabilisenancialmarkets.Theone-yearcoveredbondpurchaseprogramme

    expiredattheendofJuneandwasnotextended.

    TheBankofJapanmaintaineditszerointerestratepolicy.Italso

    intervenedintheforeignexchangemarketinSeptemberinordertocounteract

    theappreciationoftheyen.InOctober,theJapanesecentralbankannounced

    thatitwouldmaintaininterestratesatzerountilthefallinthepricelevel

    hadbeenbroughttoahalt.Atthesametime,itdecidedtoacquireassets

    amountingtoJPY5,000billion(includingprivatesectorassets)inordertolowermarketinterestrates.

    Centralbanksintheemergingeconomies,facedwithstrongeconomic

    growthandanincreasingthreatofination,begantighteningtheirmonetary

    policystance.TheChinesecentralbankraiseditsreserverequirementratio

    forbanksaswellasitsreferenceinterestratesandtookanumberoffurther

    administrativemeasuresaimedatcurbingthestronggrowthinlending.In

    addition,itallowedaslightappreciationoftheyuantotakeplace.Bytheend

    oftheyear,theChinesecurrencyhadgainedsome3.5%againsttheUSdollar.

    Consolidationoscalpolicybegins

    Expansionarymonetarypolicyinadvancedeconomies

    Monetarypolicytighteningintheemergingeconomies

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    2006

    2006

    2007

    2007

    2008

    2008

    2009

    2009

    2010

    2010

    United States

    Japan

    Euro area

    United Kingdom

    Switzerland

    In real terms,index: 100 = period average(Q1/2006Q4/2010)Sources: SECO, ThomsonFinancial Datastream

    Level of gross domestic product

    92

    94

    96

    98

    100

    102

    104

    106

    United States

    Japan

    Euro area

    United Kingdom

    Switzerland

    Year-on-year change

    in percent, in real termsSources: SECO, ThomsonFinancial Datastream

    Growth of gross domestic product

    12

    10

    8

    6

    4

    2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    United States

    Japan

    Euro area

    United Kingdom

    Switzerland

    In percentSources: SFSO, ThomsonFinancial Datastream

    Inflation

    3

    2

    1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

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    1.4 EconomicdevelopmentsinSwitzerland

    Theyear2010wasoneofrecoveryfortheSwisseconomy.GDProseby

    2.6%afterhavingfallenby1.9%in2009.Signicantmomentumwasprovided

    bythedomesticeconomy,buttheexportindustryalsocontributedtogrowth.

    RealgrossdomesticproductYear-on-yearchangeinpercent

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Privateconsumption 1.6 2.3 1.3 1.0 1.7

    Governmentconsumption 0.3 0.3 1.7 1.6 1.6

    Investment 4.7 5.1 0.5 4.9 4.6

    Construction 1.4 2.3 0.0 3.0 3.3

    Equipment 10.1 11.1 0.8 10.8 5.7

    Domesticdemand 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.6 0.5Exportsofgoodsandservices 10.3 9.6 3.3 8.7 9.3

    Aggregatedemand 4.5 4.4 1.4 3.0 3.7

    Importsofgoodsandservices 6.5 6.1 0.3 5.4 6.7

    Grossdomesticproduct 3.6 3.6 1.9 1.9 2.6

    Sources:SECO,SFSO

    Supportedbythesoliddemandfromabroad,exportsofgoodsand

    servicesrose again in 2010, thereby recovering a large partof the losses

    suffered in2009.However,around themiddleof theyear,therevival lost

    considerablemomentum,partlyasaresultoftheappreciationintheSwissfranc.Theexpansioningoodsexportswasbroadbased.Inthecaseofservices,

    growthwasmainlyattributabletohighernetearningsfrommerchandising,

    whileinternationalbankingoperationsderivedlittlebenetfromtherecovery

    inglobalnancialmarkets.

    Importsincreasedsubstantiallyduetorobustdomesticdemandand

    thestrengthoftheSwissfranc.Inthesecondhalfoftheyear,however,they

    alsolostmomentum.

    Recoveryin2010

    Expandingoreigntrade

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    Therateofunemployment,whichhadsoaredfrom2.5%to4.2%during

    thecrisis,decreasedslightlyagainin2010.Bytheendoftheyear,ithad

    fallento3.5%(seasonallyadjusted),whichcorrespondedtoareductionof

    about24,000to139,000people.

    Duringthecrisis,manycompanieshadintroducedshort-timework,

    particularlyinmanufacturing.AccordingtoastudycarriedoutbytheState

    SecretariatforEconomicAffairs(SECO),thenumberofemployeesonshort-time

    workinMay2009peakedatsome92,000people(notseasonallyadjusted),

    fallingrapidlythereafter.InNovember2010,only7,300peoplewerestillaf-fectedbyshort-timework.Contrarytoexpectat ions,thedeclineinshort-time

    workwasnotassociatedwithacorrespondingincreaseinunemployment.This

    suggeststhatamajorityoftheemployeesengagedinshort-timeworkhave

    beenfullyreintegratedintheproductionprocess.

    Nominalwagesincreasedonlymarginallyin2010.AccordingtoSNB

    estimates,nominalwagesasmeasuredbytheSwisswageindexwereupby

    0.9%,following2.1%in2009.Thetotalwagebill(compensationofemployees)

    asmeasuredbythenationalaccountsrosebyanestimated1.6%.Givenan

    increaseinfull-timeequivalentemploymentof0.7%,thisresultedina0.9%

    increaseinnominalwagesfor2010,following3.1%in2009.Unlikethewage

    index, which relates to existing employment contracts, the data in thenationalaccountsoncompensationofemployeesalsoincludechangesin

    employmentstructureandbonuspayments.

    Thefactthatnominalwagesroseonlyslightlyreectsthesituation

    followingtheeconomiccrisis.First,thesubduedeconomicenvironmenthad

    a negative impact on salary agreements at theend of 2009. Second, the

    strongincreaseinunemploymentduringthecourseof2009putadamperon

    salaryagreementsforpeopleenteringthelabourmarketorchangingjobs.In

    addition,noinationadjustmentswererequiredbecausetheconsumerprice

    indexhadfallenby0.5%in2009.

    Sincetheconsumerpriceindexroseby0.7%in2010,realwageshardly

    increasedatall.BoththeSwisswageindexandthenationalaccountsshoweda0.2%rise.In2009,theyhadrisenby2.6%,accordingtothewageindex,or

    3.6%,accordingtothenationalaccounts.

    Unemploymentallingoverthecourseotheyear

    Slightincreaseinwages

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    Growthinprivateconsumptiongatheredpacein2010.Sinceincomes

    increasedonlymarginally,householdsmainlynancedadditionalconsumption

    byreducingtheirsavingrate.Thedeclineinunemploymentalsohadapositive

    impact,whichshoweditselfintheformofanimprovementinconsumercon-

    dence.Thedemandfornewcarsrecoveredparticularlystronglyandamajor

    partofthesaleslossessufferedduringthecrisiswerecompensated.However,

    consumptionofgoodsandservicesthatarelesssensitivetocyclicalmove-

    ments,includingexpenditureonfoodandaccommodation,alsorosefurther.

    Following a phase of strong growth during the crisis, governmentconsumption declined signicantly in 2010. This was mainly because the

    stabilisationmeasuresdesignedtosupportthedomesticeconomycameto

    anend.

    GDPgrowthwasbroadbasedin2010intermsofindividualindustries.

    Thoseindustriesthathadsufferedthebiggestlossesduringthecrisisgrew

    moststrongly.Theyincludedmanufacturing,tradeandnance.Buteventhe

    areasthathadbeensparedbythecrisis,suchastheconstructionindustry,

    publicadministrationandhealthcare,alsosupportedtheeconomy.

    Therecoveryoftheglobaleconomyledtoincreasingpricesforcom-

    moditiesandenergy.Asaresult,Swissproducerandimportpricesalsorose.

    UndertheimpactofthestrongSwissfranc,however,inationarypressureremained low. Overall, Swiss producer prices were down slightly from the

    previousyearslevel(0.1%),whileimportpriceswereupby0.8%.Excluding

    commodities and energy, import prices were 1.6%below the level of the

    previousyear.

    Robustgrowthinconsumption

    Broad-basedGDPgrowthintermsoindividualindustries

    Slightlyhigherproducer

    andimportprices

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    2006

    2006

    2007

    2007

    2008

    2008

    2009

    2009

    2010

    2010

    Consumer prices

    Domestic goods

    Imported goods

    Year-on-year changein percentSource: SFSO

    Consumer prices

    8

    6

    4

    2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    Producer and import prices

    Producer prices

    Import prices

    Year-on-year changein percentSource: SFSO

    Producer and import prices

    12

    10

    8

    6

    4

    2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    Consumer prices

    Trimmed mean

    Dynamic factor inflation

    Year-on-year changein percentSources: SFSO, SNB

    Core inflation

    1.5

    1

    0.5

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    3.5

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    Nationalconsumerpriceindexandcomponents

    Year-on-yearchangeinpercent

    2009 2010 2010

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

    Consumerpriceindex,overall 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.3

    Domesticgoodsandservices 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5Goods 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.5

    Services 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8

    Privateservices(excludingrents) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4

    Rents 2.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.2

    Publicservices 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.2

    Importedgoodsandservices 4.7 0.9 1.8 1.9 0.1 0.1

    Excludingoilproducts 0.3 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5

    Oilproducts 25.9 13.9 18.3 21.0 8.6 8.5

    Coreinfation

    Trimmedmean 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6

    Dynamicfactorination 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0

    Sources:SFSO,SNB

    ThestrongSwissfrancalsoexertedpressureoninationasmeasured

    bytheCPI,whichfellfrom1.0%inJanuaryto0.5%inDecember.Thusthe

    costofimportedgoods(excludingoilproducts)decreased,onaverage,by

    1.3%.Atthesametime,pricesofdomesticgoodsandservicesalsorosemore

    slowly.Therateatwhichrentsincreasedfellfrom2.5%in2009to1.1%in

    2010,whichwasprobablyattributabletothedropinthereferenceinterest

    ratefortenancies.Numerousshort-termuctuationscanhaveanimpactonination,as

    measuredbytheCPI.TheSNBcalculatestwocoreinationrates,thetrimmed

    meananddynamicfactorination,inordertoanalysetheinationtrend.

    Thetrimmedmeanmethodexcludes,eachmonth,thegoodswiththehighest

    pricevariation.Inthecaseofdynamicfactorination,coreinationisderived

    fromalargenumberofprices,datafromtherealeconomy,nancialindicators

    andmonetaryvariables.

    In2010, the trimmed mean fell from 0.9% in Januaryto 0.6% in

    December,although itremainedin positiveterritorythroughout theyear.

    Dynamicfactorinationmovedawayfromzero,andreached1.1%bytheend

    oftheyear.

    Declineininfationovertheyear

    Coreinfationremainslow

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    2006

    2006

    2007

    2007

    2008

    2008

    2009

    2009

    2010

    2010

    Three-month Libor

    Yield on ten-yearSwiss Confederation bonds

    In percent

    Money and capital market rates

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    3.5

    CHF/USD

    CHF/EUR

    Nominal

    Exchange rates

    0.9

    1

    1.1

    1.2

    1.3

    1.4

    1.5

    1.6

    1.7

    Real

    Nominal

    40 trading partnersIndex: January 1999 = 100

    Export-weighted Swiss franc exchange rates

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    115

    120

    125

    130

    135

    140

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    10.

    12.

    2009

    11.

    03.

    2010

    17.

    06.

    2010

    16.

    09.

    2010

    16.

    12.

    2010

    Q4 2009

    Q4 2009

    Q1 2010

    Q1 2010

    Q2

    Q2

    Q3

    Q3

    Q4

    Q4

    Three-month Libor

    Target range

    Daily values in percent

    Three-month Libor

    0

    0.25

    0.5

    0.75

    1

    1.25

    1.5

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    MonetaryconditionsreectedtheSNBsexpansionarymonetarypolicy.

    Thethree-monthLiborstoodatthedesiredlevelof0.25%.Althoughgrowth

    inthemonetaryaggregateshadslowedinthemonthspriortotheassessment,

    itwasstillsubstantial,at16%comparedtotheyear-backperiodforM2and

    6%forM3.Liquidityheldbyhouseholdsandcorporationswascorrespond-

    inglyhigh.Lookingatmortgageloans,theyhadrecordedgrowthofsome5%

    inthemonthsprecedingthequarterlyassessment.

    Theexport-weightedexternalvalueoftheSwissfranchadincreased

    further,mainlyduetotheweakeningoftheeuro.Frommid-Decembertomid-March,theSwissfrancappreciatedby3.3%againsttheeuro,butlost4.7%in

    valueagainsttheUSdollar.

    Inviewofthecontinuedfragilityoftherecoveryandthehighdown-

    siderisks,theSNBdecidedtomaintainitsexpansionarymonetarypolicy.It

    leftthetargetrangeforthethree-monthLiborunchangedat0.00.75%and

    continuedtoaimforaLiborwithinthelowerpartofthetargetrangeat

    around0.25%.TheSNBalsoannouncedthatitwouldcontinuetoactdecisively

    to prevent anexcessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against theeuro.

    Furthermore,itwarnedthebanksaswellascorporationsandhouseholdsof

    theriskstheywouldruniftheydidnotremaindisciplinedwithrespecttoreal

    estatenancing.Theconditionalinationforecastpublishedatthetimeofthemonetary

    policydecisionwasbasedonathree-monthLiborof0.25%andwasalmost

    unchangedfromthatoftheassessmentinDecember2009.Intherstquarter

    of2010,inationrosebrieyduetoabaseeffectresultingfromthehistoric-

    ally lowlevel of the oil price a year previously. The conditional ination

    forecastfor2010layslightlyabovethatofDecemberbecauseeconomicactiv-

    itywasmorerobustthanhadbeenexpectedinDecember.However,prices

    weresubduedby the factthat GDPremained below potentialandbythe

    appreciationoftheSwissfranc.From2011,thenewinationforecastwas

    thereforeslightlybelowthatofDecember.However,theforecastalsoshowed

    thatinationwouldincreasesignicantlyin2011,andthatitwouldexceedthe2%levelin2012.

    Despitethesetbackinthesecondquarterresultingfromthenancial

    market turmoil, the recovery intheglobaleconomywascontinuingat the

    timeofthequarterlyassessmentinJune.IntheUS,therewasafurther

    recoveryindomesticdemandandthelabourmarket.InEurope,however,

    restrainedexpenditureonthepartofhouseholdsandcompaniesmeantthat

    economicactivityremainedsubdued.Overall,theSNBreviseditsforecastfor

    globalgrowthin2010and2011upwardswhilesimultaneouslydrawingatten-

    tiontothehighdownsiderisks.

    Monetarypolicyassessmento17June

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    TheSNBdecidedtomaintainitsexpansionarymonetarypolicyand

    leavethetargetrangeforthethree-monthLiborunchangedat0.00.75%,

    holdingtheLiborinthelowerpartoftherangeataround0.25%.Italso

    statedthatitconsideredthatthedeationaryriskinSwitzerlandhadlargely

    disappeared. Atthe same time, uncertainty had increasedsince the last

    assessment.Thelatesttensionsonthenancialmarketsrelatedtothepublic

    nancesofsomeindividualcountrieshadincreasedthedownsiderisks.Con-

    sequently,theSNBdrewattentiontothefactthat,shouldthesedownside

    risksmaterialiseand,viaanappreciationoftheSwissfranc,leadtoarenewedthreatofdeation,itwouldtakeallthemeasuresnecessarytoensureprice

    stability.

    Theconditionalinationforecastfor2010and2011hadincreased

    slightlysinceMarch,althoughtheinationoutlookwasunchangedoverall.It

    wasbasedonathree-monthLiborof0.25%.Tomid-2011,theconditionalina-

    tionforecastremainedbelowthe1%level,becausethebaseeffectattributable

    totheoilpricewaspeteringoutandGDPremainedbelowpotential.Fromthe

    thirdquarterof2011,inationwasexpectedtoincrease,reaching2.2%in

    2012. Consequently, the forecast showed that the expansionary monetary

    policycouldnotbemaintainedovertheentireforecasthorizon.

    AtthetimeofthequarterlyassessmentofSeptember,therecoveryoftheglobaleconomywasproceedingatasomewhatslowerpacethanhadbeen

    assumedinJune.IntheUSandAsia,growthappearedtohavefalteredalittle

    inthesecondquarter.Intheeuroarea,bycontrast,theeconomicsituation

    hadimprovedsignicantlyduetostrongforeigndemandandafavourable

    exchangerate.Asaconsequence,theSNBslightlyreviseditsgrowthforecasts

    fortheUSdownwards,to2.7%for2010and2.5%for2011.Fortheeuroarea,

    itexpectedsomewhatstrongergrowthfor2010(1.7%),butlefttheforecast

    for2011unchanged(2.2%).

    InSwitzerland,therevisionofnationalaccountsdatapublishedin

    Septembersuggestedthattherecessionof2009hadbeendeeperthanprevi-

    ouslyassumed.However,theriseinSwissrealGDPbetweenthethirdquarterof2009andthesecondquarterof2010hadbeensignicantlystrongerthan

    potentialoutput.Inaddition,manufacturingwhichhadbeenmostseriously

    affectedbytherecessionhadbeenclearlyontheroadtorecoveryduring

    thisperiod.Furthermore,unemploymentandshort-timeworkhaddeclined

    furtherinthemonthspriortotheSeptemberassessment.Consequently,the

    SNBforecastGDPgrowthofapproximately2.5%for2010.Thishighergrowth

    forecast,comparedtothepreviousassessment,didnotresultfromareassess-

    mentoftheeconomicoutlook,butwasduetotherevisionoftheprevious

    GDPgures.However,itwasexpectedthat,inthequartersahead,GDPgrowth

    wouldslowasaresultofthestrongSwissfrancandthedecliningmomentum

    oftheglobaleconomy.

    Monetarypolicyassessmento16September

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    InSwitzerland,theeconomictrendcontinuedpositiveatthetimeof

    theassessment.Capacityutilisationhadreturnedtoanormallevelinmanufac-

    turing,whileinconstructionitwasabovethelong-termaverage.Employment

    alsoincreasedmoderatelyandunemploymentdeclinedfurther.However,the

    weakening of exports, in particular, suggested a signicant slowdown in

    growthinthequartersahead.Consequently,theSNBexpectedGDPtogrowby

    some1.5%in2011,followinggrowthofapproximately2.5%in2010.

    SincetheSeptemberassessment,liquidity-absorbingoperationshad

    continued. This had ledto a decline in the monetary base. However, thebroadermonetaryaggregatescontinuedtoexpandstrongly.Inthemonths

    precedingthequarterlyassessment,growthinM2hadbeensubstantial,at

    approximately9%comparedtotheyear-backperiod,ashadthatinM3,atsome

    6%.Inviewoftheexpansionarymonetaryconditions,lendingbusinesshad

    remainedbrisk.Bankshadmaintainedtheirlendingstandardsforcompanies

    andhouseholdsinthethirdquarterof2010andthiswasreectedina

    continuationofthehighgrowthformortgagevolumeinthemonthspriorto

    theassessment.

    SincetheSeptemberassessment,theSwissfranchadgainedinvalue

    againsttheUSdollarwhilechanginglittlewithrespecttotheeuro.Thereal

    export-weightedexternalvalueoftheSwisscurrencyhaddecreasedslightlyinOctoberandNovember,butremainedatahighlevel.

    The SNB therefore decided to maintain its expansionary monetary

    policy and leavethetarget rangefor the three-month Liborunchangedat

    0.00.75%,keepingtheLiborwithin thelower partofthetargetrangeat

    around0.25%.Nevertheless,itdrewattentiontothehighlevelofuncer-

    taintyandthedownsiderisksinconnectionwiththeconcernsaboutstability

    intheeuroarea.Shouldthesetensionsbeexacerbatedandputastrainon

    economicdevelopmentsintheeuroarea,thiswouldalsohaveadetrimental

    effectontheSwisseconomy.Ifathreatofdeationweretoemergeasa

    resultofsuchasituation,theSNBwouldtakethemeasuresnecessaryto

    ensurepricestability.Theconditionalinationforecastpublishedatthetimeoftheassess-

    mentwasbasedontheassumptionofathree-monthLiborof0.25%,andfor

    2012and2013wasslightlyundertheSeptemberforecast.However,forthe

    beginningof2011,itshowedinationslightlyabovethegurepublishedin

    September,becausetheoilpricehadincreased.Theincreaseininationin

    thethirdquarterof2011wasattributabletoabaseeffect,becauseination

    ayearearlierhadbeencomparativelylow.Thelowerinationoutlookfor2012

    and2013,comparedtotheSeptemberforecast,resultedfromtheslowdownin

    theinternationaleconomy.However,therisingpathofinationin2012and

    2013showedthattheexpansionarymonetarypolicycouldnotbemaintained

    overtheentireforecasthorizonwithoutcompromisinglong-termpricestability.

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    Inorderforabanktomaintainitssolvency,itmusthavesufcient

    liquidityatalltimes.Abanksmostliquidassetsaresightdepositsheldat

    theSNB,sincetheycanbeusedimmediatelyforpaymenttransactionsand

    aredeemedtobelegaltender.Inaddition,banksholdsightdepositsatthe

    NationalBanktosatisfyminimumreserverequirementsandasliquidityre-

    serves.SightdepositsattheSNBbearnointerest.

    Theindividualnancialmarketparticipantsadjusttheirliquiditypos-

    itionsonthemoneymarket.Bankswantingtoplacefundsonashort-term

    basisprovideliquidityintheformofaloantootherbanksthatrequireshort-termrenancing.Theseloanscanbegrantedonasecuredorunsecuredbasis.

    Adisruptioninthemoneymarketsimpairstheliquidityadjustmentprocess

    betweenthemarketparticipantsandcanthreatenthesolvencyofthebanks.

    2.2 Monetarypolicyinstruments

    Withinitssetofmonetarypolicyinstruments,theSNBdifferentiates

    betweenopenmarketoperationsandstandingfacilities.Inthecaseofopen

    market operations, theSNB takes theinitiative inthe transaction. Wherestandingfacilitiesareconcerned,itmerelysetstheconditionsunderwhich

    counterpartiescanobtainliquidity.Regularopenmarketoperationsinclude

    repotransactionsandtheissuanceofSNBBills.Furtherinstruments,suchas

    foreignexchangepurchases,areavailableifnecessary.Standingfacilitiesin-

    cludetheliquidity-shortagenancingfacilityandtheintradayfacility.

    Inprinciple,allbanksandsecuritiesdealersdomiciledinSwitzerland

    orthePrincipalityofLiechtensteinareadmittedascounterpartiesinmon-

    etarypolicyoperations.Otherdomesticnancialmarketparticipantssuchas

    insurancecompanies,aswellasbanksandothernancialmarketparticipants

    domiciledabroad,maybeadmittedtomonetarypolicyoperationsprovided

    thisisintheSNBsmonetarypolicyinterestandthesaidinstitutionscontrib-utetotheliquidityonthesecuredSwissfrancmoneymarket.In2010,ve

    domesticinsurancecompanieswereadmittedaseligiblecounterparties.

    TheGuidelines of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on Monetary Policy

    InstrumentscontainexplicitinformationwithregardtotheSNBsscopeof

    businessassetoutinart.9NBAanddescribetheinstrumentsandprocedures

    usedbytheSNBfortheimplementationofitsmonetarypolicy.Theyalso

    denetheconditionsunderwhichthesetransactionsareconcludedandwhat

    securitiescanbeusedascollateralformonetarypolicyoperations.

    Signicanceosightdepositsandthemoneymarket

    Openmarketoperationsandstandingacilities

    Eligiblecounterparties

    Guidelinesonmonetarypolicyinstruments

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    TheSNBconductsregularopenmarketoperationsbymeansofauc-

    tions.TransactionsareconcludedviatheEurexZurichLtdelectronictrading

    platform.

    Asarule,repoauctionsareconductedintheformofavolumetender.

    Inthistypeofauction,eachcounterpartysubmitstotheSNBoffersforthe

    amountofliquidityitiswillingtoprovideorrequestforagivenreporate.If

    thetotalamountofalltheoffersexceedstheSNBspredeterminedallotment

    volume,theSNBreducestheamountsofferedproportionately.

    SNBBillauctionsare,asarule,conductedintheformofavariableratetenderwithallotmentaccordingtotheAmericansystem.TheSNBscounter-

    partiessubmittheirofferscomprisingtheamountofliquiditytheyarewilling

    toprovideandpriceatwhichtheywilldoso.Eachcounterpartymaysubmit

    asmanyoffersasitwishes,andmayalsovarytheinterestratefromoneoffer

    toanother.TheSNBobtainsliquidityfromtheparticipantsthathaveoffered

    atorbelowthehighestinterestrateacceptedbytheSNB,payingthepartici-

    pantstheinterestratestatedintheiroffers.

    Byplacingoracceptingoffersforrepotransactionsontheelectronic

    tradingplatform, theSNBis able toinuence interestrates inthemoney

    marketatalltimes,andnotjustatthetimeoftheauctions.Suchne-tuning

    transactionscanbeusedforbothprovidingandabsorbingliquidity.

    Standingacilities

    Tobridgeunexpectedliquiditybottlenecks,theSNBoffersaliquidity-

    shortagenancingfacility.Inorderforabanktoobtainliquiditythroughthis

    facility,theNationalBankmustgrantalimittobecoveredby110%collateral

    eligibleforSNBreposatalltimes.Eachcounterpartyhastherighttoobtain

    liquidityuptothelimitgranteduntilthefollowingbankworkingday.This

    limitisdrawndownintheformofaspecial-raterepotransaction.Thespecial

    rateapplicableforobtainingliquiditythroughtheliquidity-shortagenancing

    facilityisbasedontheSARON(SwissAverageRateOvernight)plusasurcharge

    of50basispoints.

    In2010,thelimitsundertheliquidity-shortagenancingfacilitywere

    increasedbyatotalamountofCHF1.5billiontoCHF37.5billionattherequest

    ofnancialmarketparticipants.Bytheendoftheyear,85nancialmarket

    participantshadbeengrantedalimit(2009:79).

    Auctionprocedures

    Bilateraloperations

    Liquidity-shortagenancingacility

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    Duringtheday,theSNBprovidesitscounterpartieswithinterest-free

    liquidity(intradayliquidity)throughrepotransactionssoastofacilitatethe

    settlementofpaymenttransactionsviaSwissInterbankClearing(SICsystem)

    andthesettlementofforeignexchangetransactionsviaContinuousLinked

    Settlement(CLS),themultilateralpaymentsystem.Thecashamountsdrawn

    mustberepaidbytheendofthesamebankworkingdayatthelatest.Intraday

    liquiditycannotbe usedtocomplywithminimumreserverequirementsor

    liquidityrequirementsunderbankinglaw.

    Othermonetarypolicyinstruments

    Inaccordancewithart.9para.1NBA,theSNBhasfurthermonetary

    policy instruments at its disposal. These include, in particular, spot and

    forwardforeignexchangetransactions,currencyswaps,thepurchaseand

    saleofsecuritiesdenominatedinSwissfrancsandderivativesonreceivables.

    Inaforeignexchangeswap,thepurchase(sale)offoreignexchangeat

    thecurrentspotrateandthesale(purchase)oftheforeignexchangeatalater

    datearesimultaneouslyagreed.Beforetheintroductionofrepotransactions

    in1998,foreignexchangeswapswerethemostimportantmonetarypolicy

    instrumentforsupplyingthemoneymarketwithliquidity.

    FromOctober2008toJanuary2010,theSNBprovidedbanksinSwitzer-

    landandabroadwithadditionalliquidityviaEUR/CHFforeignexchangeswaps.

    ThefocuswasespeciallyonbanksoutsideSwitzerland,whichhadnoaccess

    totheSNBsrepoauctions.Theforeignexchangeswapswereconductedas

    auctionsataxedprice(volumetender).Duetodecliningdemandandim-

    provedconditionsontheSwissfrancmoneymarket,foreignexchangeswap

    operationswerediscontinuedinJanuary2010.

    AlargeproportionoftheEUR/CHFforeignexchangeswapswerecon-

    ductedaspartofthetemporaryswapagreementsconcludedinautumn2008

    withtheEuropeanCentralBank,theNationalBankofPolandandtheHungarian

    centralbank.TheSNBprovidedthesethreecentral bankswithSwiss franc

    liquidityagainsteurosthroughaforeignexchangeswapfacility,andthey

    werethenabletouseauctionsforallocatingthefundstobanksintheir

    spheresofinuence.InJanuary2010,thepartiesinvolvedagreednotto

    renewtheseagreements.

    Intradayacility

    Foreignexchangeswaps

    EUR/CHForeignexchangeswaps

    Swapagreementswiththe

    ECB,PolandandHungary

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    TheswapagreementconcludedwiththeUSFederalReserveinDecem-

    ber2007,whichenabledtheSNBtoobtainUSdollarsforSwissfrancs,wasno

    longerrenewedinFebruary2010forthetimebeing.Ithadprovidedthebasis

    forSNBrepoauctionsinUSdollars(cf.chapter2.7).Inviewofthetensionson

    thenancialmarketsinMay,theSNBandtheothercentralbanksparticipating

    intheagreementdecidedtoreintroducethetemporaryswapfacilitiesforUS

    dollarliquidity.InDecember2010,thesewereextendedto1August2011.

    TheSNBacquiredsubstantialamountsofforeignexchangein2010.

    Thepurchaseswereconcludedalmostexclusivelyviaelectronictradingplat-formsandinvolvedawiderangeofcounterpartiesinSwitzerlandandabroad.

    TheSNBalsomadeuseofshort-termforeignexchangeoptionstoalimited

    extentinsupportofitsforeignexchangepurchases.TheSNBsoldmarketable

    EUR/CHFoptionstoitscounterpartiesandreceivedoptionpremiainexchange.

    Theoptionsprovidedthecounterpartieswiththerighttoselleurosagainst

    francstotheSNBatapredenedprice.Atthesametime,theoptionscaused

    counterpartiestosellSwissfrancsthemselveswhentheeurowasdeclining

    againsttheSwissfrancandthustobolstertheeuro.

    TheSwissfrancbondsissuedbydomesticprivatesectorborrowers,

    whichtheSNBhadacquiredin2009,wereeitherfullysoldorredeemedupon

    maturityin2010.

    2.3 Liquiditymanagementin2010

    ThelargeamountsofforeignexchangepurchasedbytheSNBledto

    excessliquidityinthebankingsystem.Consequently,theexistingprocedure

    forimplementingmonetarypolicyhadtobeadapted.Thenewimplementation

    procedureisbasedonarepeatedabsorptionofexcessliquidity.Thismeans

    that,asarule,theSNBnowprovidesrenancingonlywithintheframework

    oftheliquidity-shortagenancingandintradayfacilities.In2010,liquidity-absorbingreposandSNBBillswereusedtoabsorb

    surplusliquidity.Whereasrepotransactionsarefocusedonsteeringinterest

    rates,themainpurposeofSNBBillissuesistoabsorbliquidity.

    SwapagreementwiththeUSFederalReserve

    Foreignexchangepurchases

    SaleoSwissrancbonds

    Newliquiditymanagementregime

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    Repotransactionsservetosteerthethree-monthLibor.Theyarecon-

    ducteddailyintheformofanauctionatthereporatedeterminedbytheSNB

    (volumetender).Asarule,reposhaveatermofoneweek.

    Liquidity-providingrepotransactionswerecarriedoutupto12May

    2010.Theiraveragevolumein2010amountedtoCHF6.2billion,57%ofwhich

    wasaccountedforbytransactionswithaone-weekterm.Banksdailybidsat

    liquidity-providingrepoauctionsuctuatedbetweenzeroandCHF5.12billion,

    withtheSNBallotting100%atalltimes.TheSNBdiscontinueditsliquidity-

    providingrepoauctionsinMayaftermarketparticipantsdemandforliquidityhadcometoastandstillowingtothestrongexpansionofliquiditythrough

    theSNBsforeignexchangepurchases.

    Liquidity-absorbingrepotransactionshavebeenconductedsince5July

    2010inordertosteerthethree-monthLibor.Theaveragevolumeofthese

    transactionsamountedtoCHF11.6billion,withthereporaterangingbetween

    0.09%and0.14%.Intheliquidity-absorbingrepoauctions,thedailybidsby

    banksreachedanaverageofCHF13.8billionandwerethusattimeswellin

    excessoftheallottedamount.Onaverage,89.1%ofthebidscamefromdo-

    mesticbanks,theremainderfrominternationalbanksabroad.Allotmentby

    theSNBaveraged34.8%.

    Ifnecessary,theSNBalsousedne-tuningoperationstoinuencecallmoneyrates.Suchoperationswereusedinspecialcasesandtoalimited

    extentonlyfortheprovisionofliquiditytothemarket.

    IssuingSNBBillsservestoabsorbalargepartofliquidity.Theassoci-

    atedSNBBillauctionsarecarriedoutintheformofavariableratetender

    accordingtotheAmericanallotmentsystem.Thisformofauctionreectsthe

    marketparticipantswillingnesstopayandthereforeenablestheSNBtoabsorb

    liquidityatmarketprices.

    Since25May2010,SNBBillshave,asarule,beenauctionedona

    weeklybasiswithatermof28days.Auctionswithlongertermsof84,168

    and336daysarealsoconducted.TheoutstandingvolumeofSNBBillsrose

    fromCHF41.1billioninMaytoCHF107.9billioninDecember.BidssubmittedduringthisperiodrangedfromCHF1.7billiontoCHF37.7billion.Anaverage

    of73%ofSNBBillsthatwerebidforwasallotted.Overall,83bankspartici-

    patedatleastonceinanSNBBillauction.

    Repotransactionstosteerthethree-monthLibor

    SNBBillstoabsorbliquidityatmarketprices

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    Q4 2009

    Q4 2009

    Q1 2010

    Q1 2010

    Q2

    Q2

    Q3

    Q3

    Q4

    Q4

    Sight deposits

    Weekly averages, in CHF billions

    Sight deposits of domestic banks

    0

    15

    30

    45

    60

    75

    90

    105

    120

    Three-month Libor

    SNB repo rate (liquidity provision)

    SNB repo rate (liquidity absorption)

    Target range

    Daily values in percent

    Three-month Libor and one-week repo rate

    0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1

    SAR overnight (SARON)

    SAR 1 week

    SAR 1 month

    SAR 3 months

    Monthly averages of daily figures,in percent

    Swiss franc reference rates (Swiss Average Rates, SAR)

    0

    0.05

    0.1

    0.15

    0.2

    0.25

    0.3

    0.35

    0.4

    Accountabilityreport49SNB

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    MinimumreservesinCHFmillions

    2009 2010

    Outstanding Outstanding

    Average Average

    SightdepositsattheSNB 53698 43961

    Banknotes 6000 5727

    Coinsincirculation 103 98

    Eligibleassets 59801 49785

    Requirement 8947 9488

    Complianceinexcessofrequirement 50854 40297

    Complianceinpercent 669% 525%

    In2010 (from20 December 2009 to 19 December 2010), statutory

    minimumreservesamountedtoanaverageofCHF9.5billion.Thisrepresents

    a 6% increase year-on-year. Eligible assets amounted to an average of

    CHF49.8billion,whichwasslightlylessthaninthepreviousyear.BanksexceededtherequirementbyanannualaverageofaroundCHF40.3billion

    (2009:CHF50.9 billion).The averagedegreeofcompliance,at 525%,was

    slightlybelowthepreviousyearslevel(669%).

    In2010,thestatutoryminimumreserverequirementsweremetby

    virtuallyallthebanks(totalnumberofbanks:296).Threebanksbreached

    requirementsduringonereportingperiodeach.Thesumsinvolvedwereneg-

    ligible.Thetotalamountininterestthatthecontraveningbankswererequired

    topaycametoCHF38,105.

    2.6 CollateraleligibleforSNBrepos

    Inaccordancewithart.9NBA,theSNBmayenterintocredittransac-

    tionswithbanksandothernancialmarketparticipants,onconditionthat

    sufcientcollateralisprovidedfortheloans.Insodoing,theSNBprotects

    itselfagainstlossesandensuresequaltreatmentofitscounterparties.Art.3of

    theGuidelines of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on Monetary Policy Instruments

    speciesthesecuritiesthatareeligibleascollateralinSNBtransactions.The

    Instruction Sheet on Collateral Eligible for SNB Reposliststhecriteriathathave

    tobemet for securities tobeeligibleforSNBrepos.Onlythose securities

    includedinthelistofeligiblecollateralmaybepledgedascollateralforrepotransactions.

    Legalbasis

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    TheSNBpursuesan openaccess policyand allowsbanksdomiciled

    abroadtoparticipateinitsmonetarypolicyoperations,too.Securitiesde-

    nominated in foreign currenciesare therefore also accepted as collateral

    besidesSwissfrancsecurities.Oneconditionisthattheissuerofsecuritiesis

    domiciledinSwitzerlandoramemberstateoftheEuropeanUnionorthe

    EuropeanEconomicArea.Theminimumrequirementswithregardtocollateral

    inforeigncurrenciesarehigherthanforthosedenominatedinSwissfrancs.

    In2010,95%ofthesecuritieseligibleascollateralforSNBreposweredenom-

    inatedinforeigncurrencies.Byinternationalstandards,theSNBhasatraditionofsettinghigh

    minimumrequirementswithregardtothemarketliquidityandcreditrating

    ofcollateral.Inaccordancewithapplicableregulations,securitiesinSwiss

    francsorinselectedforeigncurrenciesareeligibleiftheyfullcertainmin-

    imumrequirementsregardingrating,issuevolume,deliveryandsettlement.

    Asaresultofthestringentrequirementswithregardtocollateraleligiblefor

    SNBrepos,banksarerequiredtoholdrecoverableandliquidassetsontheir

    balancesheets.Thisiscrucialifbanksaretobeabletorenancetheiroper-

    ations on the money market even underdifcult conditions. Eligibility as

    collateral for SNB repo transactions isalso very important withregard to

    thesesecuritieseligibilityasliquidassetsinaccordancewithart.16oftheBankingOrdinance.

    Collateral eligible for SNB repos isvery important for the secured

    moneymarket.Over99%ofalltransactionsbetweennancialmarketpartici-

    pantsthatwereconcludedandsettledviathereposystemwerecoveredby

    collateraleligibleforSNBrepos.Thehighrequirementsplacedonthecollateral

    serveespeciallytoprotectcashproviders,andenableawiderangeofmarket

    participantstotakepartinthereposystem.Duringthenancialcrisis,the

    high quality of collateral deliveredand the efciency of the repo system

    provedcrucialtothefunctioningofthemoneymarket.

    TranslatedintoSwissfrancs,thepotentialvolumeofcollateraleligible

    forSNBreposrecededfromaroundCHF10,000billiontoCHF9,000billionin2010.Thedecreaseresultedpartlyfromalowernettotalofnewlyaccepted

    securitiesandfromredemptionsduetomaturity.Exchangeratemovements

    alsoreducedthetotalvolumeinSwissfrancs.Furthermore,collateralinfor-

    eigncurrenciestoavalueofaboutCHF275billionwasremovedfromthelist

    ofcollateraleligibleforSNBrepos,sinceitnolongermettheminimumre-

    quirements.TheSNBdidnotmodifyitspolicywithregardtoeligiblecollateral

    in2010.

    Collateralinoreigncurrencies

    Stringentrequirementsrelatingtocollateral

    Standardortheinterbankrepomarket

    VolumeocollateraleligibleorSNBrepos

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    2.7 RepoauctionsinUSdollars

    TheSNBstartedconductingUSdollarrepoauctionsinDecember2007

    aspartofacoordinatedactioninvolvingseveralcentralbanks.TheUSFederal

    ReservesuppliedtheSNBwithUSdollarsonthebasisofaswapagreement.

    TheSNBsrepotransactionsinUSdollarswerecoveredbycollateraleligible

    forSNBrepos.Whilethesemeasureshavenoeffec tonthesupplyofmoneyin

    Swissfrancs,theyenabletheSNBscounterpartiestogaineasieraccesstoUS

    dollarliquidity.AttheendofJanuary2010,theSNBdiscontinueditsUSdollarrepo

    transactions after the swap agreement with theFederalReserve had in

    concertwiththeother central banks involved no longer been renewed.

    FollowingthereactivationoftheswapagreementinMay,theSNBresumed

    theassociatedauctionsandofferedweeklyrepotransactionsinUSdollars

    withatermofsevendaysuntilDecember.Therewasstillnodemandforthis

    nancinginstrument.

    2.8 SNBUSDBillsOn16February2009,inaccordancewithart.9NBA,theSNBbegan

    toissuedebtcerticatesinUSdollars(SNBUSDBills)inadditiontoitsown

    debtcerticatesinSwissfrancs(SNBBills).TheseUSdollardebtcerticates

    wereusedforthenancingoftheSNBsloantothestabilisationfund(cf.

    chapter6.7).

    Theoutstanding volume ofSNB USD Bills reached a peak value of

    USD20billioninOctober2009.Alargeproportionwasissuedwithatermof

    168days.In2010,therewere39issuesofSNBUSDBillswithtermsof28,

    84or168days.Asaresultofreducedrenancingneedsonthepartofthe

    stabilisationfund,theissuanceofSNBUSDBillswasdiscontinuedinJune.Thelastissuewascarriedouton21June,andthelastSNBUSDBillswere

    redeemedon8December2010.

    Nomoredemandordollarliquidity

    IssuancediscontinuedinJune

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    3.3 Banknotes

    Pursuanttoart.7oftheFederalActonCurrencyandPaymentIn-

    struments(CPIA),theSNBissuesbanknotescommensuratewithdemandfor

    paymentpurposesandtakesbackanybanknoteswhichareworn,damagedor

    surplustorequirementsduetoseasonaluctuations.Italsodeterminesthe

    denominationanddesignofthenotes.Particularattentionispaidtotheir

    security.Giventhespeedatwhichcounterfeitingtechnologyadvances,the

    effectivenessofthesecurityfeaturesonthebanknotesmustbecontinuouslycheckedand,ifnecessary,adapted.Incooperationwiththirdparties,theSNB

    developsnewsecurityfeaturesthatmakeitpossibletoupdatetheexisting

    featuresoncurrentbanknotesandtobetterprotectnewbanknotes.

    In 2010, banknote circulation averaged CHF 47.1 billion, which is

    slightlyabovethepreviousyearsaverageofCHF45.3billion.Ofthebank-

    notes(mainlytheCHF1,000note)forwhichtherewasadditionaldemandin

    autumn2008asaresultofthenancialcrisis,onlyasmallportionhavethus

    farreturnedtotheSNB.Intheyearunderreview,thetotalnumberofnotes

    incirculationaveraged325.1million(2009:315.6million).

    In2010,theSNBput75.2millionfreshlyprintedbanknotes(2009:

    136.7million)withanominalvalueofCHF5.1billion(2009:CHF13.6billion)intocirculation,anddestroyed77.3milliondamagedorrecallednotes(2009:

    79.9million)withanominalvalueofCHF4.8billion(2009:CHF5.5billion).

    Approximately4,400counterfeitbanknotes(2009:4,900)werecons-

    cated in Switzerland in 2010. The SNBs ofces discovered 61 counterfeit

    notes(2009:84).Byinternationalstandards,14seizedcounterfeitnotesper

    millionSwissfrancnotesincirculation(2009:16)isamodestgure.

    Mandate

    Banknotesincirculation

    Issueanddisposal

    Countereits

    Number of banknotes in

    circulation

    In millions

    CHF 10s: 66

    CHF 20s: 72

    CHF 50s: 41

    CHF 100s: 84

    CHF 200s: 34

    CHF 1,000s: 28

    Annual average for 2010

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    In the course o the project on developing a new banknote series, it has

    become clear that the new security eatures being built into the banknotes

    or the frst time could be enhanced by urther development. The SNB there-

    ore decided to postpone the issue date o the new banknote series, with the

    frst denomination o the new series expected to be issued towards the end

    o 2012. Given that the high standard o security o the banknote series

    currently in circulation is unchanged, the supply o high-quality banknotes to

    the economy remains guaranteed.

    3.4 Coins

    The SNB is entrusted by the Conederation with the task o coin circu-

    lation. Its role is defned in art. 5 CPIA. It takes over the coins minted by

    Swissmint and puts into circulation the number required or payment purposes.

    Coins that are surplus to requirements are taken back against reimbursement

    o their nominal value. The SNBs coinage services are not remunerated, as

    they constitute part o its mandate to supply the country with cash.

    In 2010, the value o coins in circulation averaged CHF 2,719 million(2009: CHF 2,664 million), which corresponds to 4,766 million coins (2009:

    4,661 million).

    Development of newbanknote series

    Mandate

    Coin circulation

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    The system encompassing sight deposits and SIC, which is steered by

    the SNB, is a key element in the Swiss fnancial market inrastructure. This

    inrastructure is run by SIX Group Ltd. Aside rom SIX Interbank Clearing Ltd,

    the fnancial holding company also includes the Swiss stock exchange (SIX

    Swiss Exchange Ltd), SIX SIS Ltd (which operates the securities settlement

    system SECOM) and SIX x-clear Ltd (the central counterparty). It is through

    SIX Interbank Clearing Ltd and SIX SIS Ltd that the SNB settles the money

    market transactions with which it supplies the money market with liquidity.

    It is thus not just in the area o payments that SIX Group Ltd operates inra-structures that are important or the ulflment o the SNBs mandate.

    4.2 Cashless payments in 2010

    At the end o 2010, there were 377 participants in SIC (2009: 376).

    Every day, approximately 1.5 million transactions at a value o CHF 202 billion

    were settled. Compared to the previous year, this represents a 2.2% increase

    in the number o transactions and a 9.9% decrease in the value o transac-

    tions. Peak days saw up to 5.1 million transactions being settled, with valuesas high as CHF 425 billion.

    Key gures on the SIC system

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Transactions (in thousands)

    Daily average 1 264 1 421 1 468 1 508 1 542

    Peak daily value or year 3 844 4 167 4 350 4 788 5 056

    Values (in CHF billions)

    Daily average 179 208 229 225 202

    Peak daily value or year 318 337 343 411 425

    Average value per transaction (in CHF thousands)

    141 146 156 149 131

    Average liquidity (in CHF millions)

    Sight deposits at end o day 5 217 5 470 8 522 57 886 50 489

    Intraday liquidity 7 070 8 828 9 515 6 362 7 211

    SIX Group as operator of thenancial market infrastructure

    Key gures on the SIC system

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    Apart rom banks, participants alling in the category other fnancial

    market participants also use SIC, including companies that operate commer-

    cially on the fnancial markets. They include PostFinance, securities dealers

    and institutions that play a signifcant part either in payment transact ions (at

    present, fve cash processing institutions) or in the implementation o mon-

    etary policy. All participants in SIC must hold an SNB sight deposit account.

    Conversely, not all holders o an SNB sight deposit account are connected to

    SIC. The number o holders o an SNB sight deposit account as at 31 December

    2010 was 491 (2009: 485), and o these, 377 participated in SIC (2009: 376).The majority o SIC participants are domiciled in Switzerland (259, as in the

    previous year), and o these, 19 (2009: 15) belong to the category other fnan-

    cial market participants. Since the list o participants eligible or monetary

    policy operations was increased at the beginning o 2010, fve insurance

    companies have joined SIC, and have mostly settled repo transactions through

    the system.

    4.3 TARGET2-Securities

    In 2008, the European Central Bank (ECB) committed to building

    TARGET2-Securities (T2S), a securities settlement system. T2S is intended to

    either totally or partially replace the existing domestic settlement systems o

    central securities depositories and to substantially reduce the cost o cross-

    border securities settlement in Europe. T2S is scheduled to go live in 2014.

    The new European securities settlement system will also be important

    or the Swiss fnancial centre. In 2009, SIX SIS Ltd in agreement with the

    SNB signed a memorandum o intent with regards to its participation in T2S.

    This would reduce the cost to fnancial market participants in Switzerland o

    settling securities transactions in euros.

    T2S is capable o handling multiple currencies, and the ECB is inter-ested in increasing the number o currencies used in its system. The SNB is

    currently clariying together with the SIX Group and the banks whether

    T2S would be advantageous or settling securities transactions in Swiss

    rancs. A decision on the inclusion o the Swiss ranc in T2S is expected by

    mid-2011.

    Other participants incashless payments

    T2S in the euro area

    Participation of SIX SIS Ltd

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    The SNBs comparatively long-term investment horizon is taken into

    account in all o these risk analyses. To manage and assess credit risk, inor-

    mation rom major rating agencies, market indicators and in-house analyses

    are used. Credit limits are set on the basis o this inormation, and adjusted

    whenever the assessment o counterparty risk changes. Concentration and

    reputational risks are also actored in when determining risk limits. Risk indi-

    cators are aggregated across all investments. Compliance with the guidelines

    and limits is monitored daily. Quarterly risk reports or the attention o the

    Governing Board and the Bank Councils Risk Committee document the resultso risk management activities.

    5.3 Changes in and breakdown o assets

    At the end o 2010, the SNBs balance sheet total was just under

    CHF 270 billion, or CHF 63 billion higher than one year earlier (CHF 207 bil-

    lion). The increase is due to the growth in currency reserves, which rose

    rom CHF 112 billion to CHF 252 billion in the space o a year. This was mainly

    attributable to oreign exchange purchases. In addition, there were valuationgains on gold in the order o CHF 6 billion. Holdings o Swiss ranc-denominated

    assets, by contrast, decreased. Claims rom repo transactions, which at end-

    2009 had stood at CHF 36 billion, declined to zero, while Swiss ranc bond

    holdings ell rom CHF 7 billion to CHF 4 billion. Finally, the loan to the stabil-

    isation und also decreased. At the end o 2010, it amounted to CHF 12 billion,

    as compared to CHF 21 billion one year previously. The loan is denominated in

    various currencies, with interest being paid at 250 basis points above the

    one-month Libor or the currency concerned.

    At the end o 2010, the bond portolios in the oreign exchange reserves

    and the Swiss ranc bond portolio contained government and quasi-govern-

    ment bonds as well as bonds issued by supranational organisations, localauthorities, fnancial institutions (mainly covered bonds) and other companies.

    In the case o oreign exchange reserves, a limited number o secured and

    unsecured short-term placements were also made at banks. The equity port-

    olios were managed on a purely passive basis, with broad market indices in

    euros, US dollars, yen, pounds sterling and Canadian dollars being replicated.

    A small portion o gold holdings was used in the orm o secured gold lending

    transactions at year-end.

    In the case o oreign exchange reserves, exchange rate and interest

    rate risks were managed using derivatives such as interest rate swaps, interest

    rate utures, orward oreign exchange transactions and oreign exchange

    options. In addition, utures on equity indices were used to manage the equityinvestments.

    Changes in assets

    Debtor categories andinstruments

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    Breakdown of foreign exchange reserves and Swiss franc bond

    investments at year-end

    2009 2010

    Foreignexchangereserves

    CHF bonds Foreignexchangereserves

    CHF bonds

    Currency allocation, incl. derivatives positions

    CHF 100% 100%

    USD 30% 25%

    EUR 58% 55%

    JPY 5% 10%

    GBP 5% 3%

    CAD 2% 4%

    Other (DKK, AUD, SEK, SGD) 3%

    Investment categories

    Investments with banks 0% 0%

    Government bonds1 84% 19% 83% 35%

    Other bonds2 9% 81% 6% 65%

    Equities 7% 11%

    Breakdown of bonds

    AAA-rated 84% 82% 82% 78%

    AA-rated 13% 11% 14% 21%

    A-rated 2% 3% 3% 1%

    Other 1% 4% 1%

    Bond duration (years) 3.3 5.3 4.0 5.6

    1 Government bonds in own currency; in the case o CHF investments, also bonds issued by Swisscantons and municipalities.

    2 Government bonds in oreign currency as well as bonds issued by oreign local authorities andsupranational organisations, covered bonds, corporate bonds, etc.

    Breakdown of

    SNB assets

    In percent

    Foreign exchange reserves 76

    Gold reserves 16

    Securities in Swiss francs 1

    Loan to stabilisation fund 5

    Monetary institutions 2

    Total: CHF 270 billionAt year-end 2010

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    2003

    2003

    2004

    2004

    2005

    2005

    2006

    2006

    2007

    2007

    2008

    2008

    2009

    2009

    2010

    2010

    Gold

    USD

    EUR

    GBP

    Other

    CAD

    JPY

    SDR

    In percent

    Breakdown of currency reserves

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    Accountability report67SNB

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    6 Contribution to fnancial system stability

    6.1 Background

    Art. 5 para. 2 (e) o the National Bank Act (NBA) coners upon the

    Swiss National Bank (SNB) the mandate o contributing to the stability o the

    fnancial system. Financial stability means that fnancial system participants,

    i.e. fnancial intermediaries (banks) and inrastructures (payment and secur-

    ities settlement systems) can perorm their unctions and are able to withstand

    potential disturbances. It is an important prerequisite or economic develop-

    ment and eective monetary policy implementation. As its contribution to

    fnancial stability, the SNB analyses sources o risk to the fnancial system,

    oversees systemically important payment and securities settlement systems, and

    participates in creating the operating ramework or the Swiss fnancial centre.

    The SNB works together with the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory

    Authority (FINMA) and the Federal Department o Finance (FDF) to create a

    regulatory environment that promotes stability. The SNB addresses the issue

    mainly rom a systemic perspective, and its ocus is thereore on the macroeco-

    nomic and macroprudential aspects o regulation. For its part, FINMA is

    responsible, among other things, or monitoring o specifc institutions, i.e.

    microprudential oversight. In the oversight o cross-border payment and

    securities settlement systems, the SNB liaises closely with oreign authorities.

    6.2 Main activities in 2010

    In 2010, a major ocus o the SNBs activities in the area o fnancial

    stability was its involvement in the commission o experts appointed by the

    Swiss Federal Council to examine ways o limiting the economic risks posed by

    large companies. The commission investigated how to alleviate the too big toail problem. Too big to ail describes the constraint imposed by the act

    that, or systemic reasons, very large, or nationally and internationally inter-

    connected banks cannot be allowed to ail, and thus enjoy a de acto state

    guarantee.

    At international level, within the ramework o the Basel Committee

    on Banking Supervision and the Financial Stability Board (FSB), the SNB par-

    ticipated in eorts to reorm banking regulation. In addition, the intensifed

    monitoring o the Swiss banking system introduced during the fnancial crisis

    was urther expanded, with particular attention being paid to the mortgage

    market.

    Mandate

    Cooperation withFINMA and FDF

    Attention focused ontoo big to fail problem

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    In 2010, the business audit commissions o the National Council and

    the Council o States published their report on the conduct o the authorities

    during the fnancial crisis. The business audit commissions then invited the

    SNB to comment on the recommendations. In a response dated December

    2010, the SNB reviewed its mandate and its set o instruments in the area o

    fnancial stability. It judged that the mandate set down in art. 5 para. 2 (e)

    NBA was appropriate and sufciently precise. In contrast, it concluded that

    its own set o preventive instruments needed to be strengthened in three

    areas: frst, it should be ensured that the SNB has timely access to all relevantinormation required or an assessment o fnancial stability. Second, its right

    to participate in drawing up regulations that are relevant or fnancial stabil-

    ity should be clarifed and strengthened. Third, the SNB should be given powers

    as regards the implementation o regulations with a direct bea