slide show #14 agec 430 macroeconomics of agriculture spring 2010
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![Page 1: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Slide Show #14Slide Show #14AGEC 430
Macroeconomics of Agriculture
Spring 2010
![Page 2: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Handout #23Handout #23
Supplemental Slides enhancing this slide show. I will point to specific text from Handout #23 at the end of this show
Supplemental Slides enhancing this slide show. I will point to specific text from Handout #23 at the end of this show
![Page 3: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Measures of LiquidityMeasures of Liquidity1. Current ratioCurrent ratio:• Current assets divided by current liabilities.• Demonstrates ability to cover scheduled current liabilities for the coming year out current assets and still have “cash” left over.• Should exceed 1.0exceed 1.0 to be technically liquid.• Some firms fail despite exceeding this hurdle.
![Page 4: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Measures of LiquidityMeasures of Liquidity1. Current ratioCurrent ratio:• Current assets divided by current liabilities.• Demonstrates ability to cover scheduled current liabilities for the coming year out current assets and still have “cash” left over.• Should exceed 1.0exceed 1.0 to be technically liquid.• Some firms fail despite exceeding this hurdle.
2. Working capitalWorking capital:• Current assets minus current liabilities.• Expresses liquidity in dollars rather than ratio.• Should be positive.• Cash is King!Cash is King!
![Page 5: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Liquidity TrendsLiquidity Trends
Current Ratio
0.00
0.501.00
1.50
2.00
2.503.00
3.50
4.00
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
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Liquidity TrendsLiquidity Trends
Current Ratio
0.00
0.501.00
1.50
2.00
2.503.00
3.50
4.00
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailedMinimumMinimum
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
![Page 7: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Working Capital-to-Total Assets
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
Liquidity TrendsLiquidity Trends
![Page 8: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Measures of SolvencyMeasures of Solvency1. Debt ratioDebt ratio:• Total debt divided by total assets.• Demonstrates ability to liquidate the firm, cover all liabilities out of all assets, and still have “cash” left over.• Should not exceed 0.50not exceed 0.50 to minimize financial risk exposure.• Some firms fail however at lower levels.
![Page 9: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Measures of SolvencyMeasures of Solvency1. Debt ratioDebt ratio:• Total debt divided by total assets.• Demonstrates ability to liquidate the firm, cover all liabilities out of all assets, and still have “cash” left over.• Should not exceed 0.50not exceed 0.50 to minimize financial risk exposure.• Some firms fail however at lower levels.
2. Leverage ratioLeverage ratio:• Total debt divided by equity or net worth.• Often a credit standard in loan approval decisions.• Should not exceed 1.0not exceed 1.0 to minimize financial risk exposure.• Effects of rising interest rates.
![Page 10: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Solvency TrendsSolvency Trends
Total Debt-to-Total Assets
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
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Solvency TrendsSolvency Trends
Total Debt-to-Total Assets
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
MaximumMaximum
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
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Measures of ProfitabilityMeasures of Profitability
1. Rate of return on assetsRate of return on assets:• Net income plus interest divided by total assets.• Demonstrates the after-tax return to the total capital invested in the firm. • Should be positivepositive; the higher the better.
![Page 13: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Measures of ProfitabilityMeasures of Profitability
1. Rate of return on assetsRate of return on assets:• Net income plus interest divided by total assets.• Demonstrates the after-tax return to the total capital invested in the firm. • Should be positivepositive; the higher the better.
2. Rate of return on equityRate of return on equity:• Net income divided equity.• Demonstrates the after-tax return on owner equity invested in the firm.• Should be positivepositive; the higher the better.
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Profitability TrendsProfitability Trends
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
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Profitability TrendsProfitability Trends
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
MinimumMinimum
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
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Measure of Debt CoverageMeasure of Debt Coverage
1. Term Debt and Capital Lease Coverage RatioTerm Debt and Capital Lease Coverage Ratio:• Cash available from operations to cover scheduled payments (net income plus depreciation and interest payments less withdrawals) divided by scheduled principal and interest payments on term loans and capital leases.• After provision for taxes and withdrawals. • Should be greater than 1.0greater than 1.0. • Non-farm income often factored in by lenders.
![Page 17: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Measure of Debt CoverageMeasure of Debt Coverage
1. Term Debt and Capital Lease Coverage RatioTerm Debt and Capital Lease Coverage Ratio:• Cash available from operations to cover scheduled payments (net income plus depreciation and interest payments less withdrawals) divided by scheduled principal and interest payments on term loans and capital leases.• After provision for taxes and withdrawals. • Should be greater than 1.0greater than 1.0. • Non-farm income often factored in by lenders.
2. Debt Burden RatioDebt Burden Ratio:• Total debt outstanding divided by net income.• Number of years required to retire total debt if net income remains constant and used entirely for this purpose• Should be lowlow; the lower the better.
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Debt Repayment Capacity Debt Repayment Capacity
Net Cash Income-to-Total Debt
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
Inverse of debt burden ratio
assuming use of depreciation
allowances to retire debt.
Inverse of debt burden ratio
assuming use of depreciation
allowances to retire debt.
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Some Conclusions….Some Conclusions….• Indicators of Indicators of
growth/survival:growth/survival:– Increasing liquidity– Increasing solvency– Increasing debt
repayment capacity– Increasing profitability
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Some Conclusions….Some Conclusions….• Indicators of Indicators of
potential failure:potential failure:– Declining liquidity– Declining solvency– Decreasing debt
repayment capacity– Decreasing profitability
![Page 21: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Some Conclusions….Some Conclusions….• Indicators of Indicators of
growth/survival:growth/survival:– Increasing liquidity– Increasing solvency– Increasing debt
repayment capacity– Increasing profitability
• Indicators of Indicators of potential failure:potential failure:– Declining liquidity– Declining solvency– Decreasing debt
repayment capacity– Decreasing profitability
![Page 22: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Liquidity Trends
Current Ratio
0.00
0.501.00
1.50
2.00
2.503.00
3.50
4.00
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
![Page 23: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Liquidity Trends
Current Ratio
0.00
0.501.00
1.50
2.00
2.503.00
3.50
4.00
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
MinimumMinimum
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
![Page 24: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Working Capital-to-Total Assets
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
Liquidity Trends
![Page 25: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Solvency TrendsTotal Debt-to-Total Assets
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
![Page 26: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Solvency TrendsTotal Debt-to-Total Assets
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
MaximumMaximum
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
![Page 27: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Profitability Trends
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
![Page 28: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Profitability Trends
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
MinimumMinimum
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
![Page 29: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Debt Repayment Capacity Net Cash Income-to-Total Debt
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
SurvivedSurvived
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
Inverse of debt burden
ratio
Inverse of debt burden
ratio
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Some Conclusions….Some Conclusions….• Indicators of Indicators of
growth/survival:growth/survival:– Increasing liquidity– Increasing solvency– Increasing debt
repayment capacity– Increasing profitability
• Indicators of Indicators of potential failure:potential failure:– Declining liquidity– Declining solvency– Decreasing debt
repayment capacity– Decreasing profitability
![Page 31: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Working Capital-to-Total Assets
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
Summary of Trends…Summary of Trends…
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Working Capital-to-Total Assets
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
Total Debt-to-Total Assets
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
FailedFailed
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
Summary of Trends…Summary of Trends…
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Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
Working Capital-to-Total Assets
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
Total Debt-to-Total Assets
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
FailedFailed
FailedFailed
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
Summary of Trends…Summary of Trends…
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Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
Net Cash Income-to-Total Debt
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
Working Capital-to-Total Assets
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
Total Debt-to-Total Assets
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90
1 2 3 4 5
Year Before Failure
FailedFailed
FailedFailed
FailedFailed
FailedFailed
Source: W. H. Beaver, “Financial Ratios and Predictors of Failure”, Journal of Accounting Research
Summary of Trends…Summary of Trends…
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#1:Historical Analysis#1:Historical AnalysisA look backwards like
the Beaver study.Comparison of current
performance with past performance.
Recommend doing this at the enterprise level as well as for the farm as a whole.
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
1 2 3 4 5
Prior Years
![Page 36: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
#1:Historical Analysis#1:Historical Analysis
A look backwards like the Beaver study.
Comparison of current performance with past performance.
Recommend doing this at the enterprise level as well as for the farm as a whole.
Why is ROA falling?Why is ROA falling?
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
1 2 3 4 5
Prior Years
![Page 37: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
#2:Comparative Analysis#2:Comparative Analysis
Comparing current performance with similar operations like the Beaver study.
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Prior Years
Your firmYour firm
BenchmarkBenchmark
![Page 38: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
#2:Comparative Analysis#2:Comparative Analysis
Comparing current performance with similar operations like the Beaver study.
Benchmark analysis at enterprise level when possible.
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Prior Years
Your firmYour firm
BenchmarkBenchmark
![Page 39: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
#2:Comparative Analysis#2:Comparative Analysis
Comparing current performance with similar operations like the Beaver study.
Benchmark analysis at enterprise level when possible.
Address reasons why your firm is performing more poorly than other comparable operations before it is too latebefore it is too late.
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Prior Years
Your firmYour firm
BenchmarkBenchmark
![Page 40: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
#2:Comparative Analysis#2:Comparative Analysis
Comparing current performance with similar operations like the Beaver study.
Benchmark analysis at enterprise level when possible.
Address reasons why your firm is performing more poorly than other comparable operations before it is too latebefore it is too late.
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Prior Years
Your firmYour firm
BenchmarkBenchmark
![Page 41: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
#2:Comparative Analysis#2:Comparative Analysis
Comparing current performance with similar operations like the Beaver study.
Benchmark analysis at enterprise level when possible.
Address reasons why your firm is performing more poorly than other comparable operations before it is too latebefore it is too late.
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Prior Years
Your firmYour firm
BenchmarkBenchmark
![Page 42: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
#2:Comparative Analysis#2:Comparative Analysis
Comparing current performance with similar operations like the Beaver study.
Benchmark analysis at enterprise level when possible.
Address reasons why your firm is performing more poorly than other comparable operations before it is too latebefore it is too late.
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Prior Years
Your firmYour firm
BenchmarkBenchmark
![Page 43: Slide Show #14 AGEC 430 Macroeconomics of Agriculture Spring 2010](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649d6b5503460f94a4a30b/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
#2:Comparative Analysis#2:Comparative Analysis
Comparing current performance with similar operations like the Beaver study.
Benchmark analysis at enterprise level when possible.
Address reasons why your firm is performing more poorly than other comparable operations before it is too latebefore it is too late.
Rate of Return on Assets
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
1 2 3 4 5
Prior Years
Your firmYour firm
BenchmarkBenchmark
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Presentation ModelPresentation ModelThe model given to each presentation
team will calculate these financial ratios for you.
Your task will be to interpret these ratios for your business as conditions change in the Lower Slobovian economy.
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Table appearing on one of the worksheets in the class model.Table appearing on one of the worksheets in the class model.
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Four of the five graphs generated by the class model.Four of the five graphs generated by the class model.
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Impact of a tighter monetary policy…what do you see?Impact of a tighter monetary policy…what do you see?
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Weaker liquidityWeaker liquidity
Weaker profitabilityWeaker profitabilityWeaker debt coverageWeaker debt coverage
Weaker solvencyWeaker solvency
Impact of a combination of tighter monetary and fiscal policyImpact of a combination of tighter monetary and fiscal policy
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Handout #23Handout #23
Here is the text in this handoutHere is the text in this handout
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Handout #23 contains an example income statement, balance sheet and cash flow information used to calculate these and other ratios.
Handout #23 contains an example income statement, balance sheet and cash flow information used to calculate these and other ratios.
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Another measure is the debt burden ratio, or the ratio of debt outstanding to net cash income. The higher the ratio, the greater the stress on net cash income to retire debt outstanding.