situation analysis week 2 ba-343. begin situation analysis- define environmental scanning examine...
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Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis
Week 2BA-343
Begin Situation Analysis-
Define Environmental Scanning
Examine Competitor Analysis
Delineate Sources of CI
Conduct a PEST Analysis of U.S
What need to know
What R best resources to use…
What R significant forces (recent
past, present &
near future)
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis Strategic Strategic PlanningPlanningStrategic Strategic PlanningPlanning
•CCompanyompany
•CConsumersonsumers
•CCompetitorsompetitors
•CConditionsonditions• PESTPEST
The Marketing Mix:The Marketing Mix:
Marketing StrategyMarketing Strategy
WMWM
TGTTGT
EEDD
CCNNGG
FF
Service
Growth & Growth & CompetitiveCompetitive StrategiesStrategies
P’s
Positioning Positioning StrategyStrategy
1st Step (& continuous process thereafter)
Situation Analysis
1st Step (& continuous process thereafter)
Situation Analysis
Situation Analysis
… provides on-going answers to any & every question regarding:
What can (is) will impact(ing)
your Strategies…
CompanyCompany
CompetitorsCompetitors
•Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis (costs, profitability)
•Customer AnalysisCustomer Analysis (volume, frequency, Loyalty)
•Company AuditCompany Audit
(Strength &, weaknesses, Resources, Culture, Goals)
•Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis (costs, profitability)
•Customer AnalysisCustomer Analysis (volume, frequency, Loyalty)
•Company AuditCompany Audit
(Strength &, weaknesses, Resources, Culture, Goals)
ConsumersConsumers
•Market StructureMarket Structure (Segments, size, growth rate)
•Consumer Consumer BehaviorBehavior (purchasing determinants & patterns)
•Market StructureMarket Structure (Segments, size, growth rate)
•Consumer Consumer BehaviorBehavior (purchasing determinants & patterns)
ConditionsConditions•Political•Economic•Socio-cultural•Technological
•Political•Economic•Socio-cultural•Technological
•Industry Industry Structure Structure AnalysisAnalysis (entry/exit barriers, buyers, sellers, substitutes)
•Competitor Competitor Response Response ProfilesProfiles (capabilities, performance & strategies)
•Industry Industry Structure Structure AnalysisAnalysis (entry/exit barriers, buyers, sellers, substitutes)
•Competitor Competitor Response Response ProfilesProfiles (capabilities, performance & strategies)
1st part Situation Analysis is Environmental Environmental
ScanningScanning
Environmental Scanning=The process of identifying the nature &
magnitude of Uncontrollable forces in the external (macro) environment exerting significant influence on your strategies…
Social
TechnologicalPolitical
Economic
Competitors
Demographic Psychographic
trends
EXTERNAL-UNCONTROLLABLE FORCESEXTERNAL-UNCONTROLLABLE FORCES: : Impacting Strategies
Regulatory
Technological
Consumers
Environmental Scan of the United States
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis Strategic Strategic PlanningPlanningStrategic Strategic PlanningPlanning
•CCompanyompany
•CConsumersonsumers
•CCompetitorsompetitors
•CConditionsonditions• PESTPEST
The Marketing Mix:The Marketing Mix:
Marketing StrategyMarketing Strategy
WMWM
TGTTGT
EEDD
CCNNGG
FF
Service
Growth & Growth & CompetitiveCompetitive StrategiesStrategies
P’s
Positioning Positioning StrategyStrategy
Our Task TodayOur Task Today
Competition is a Multifaceted Concept
There are Multiple Levels of competition…
& Multiple Dimensions of competition..
Levels of Competition
Broad
Narrow
Milk CoffeeSoda Tea JuiceCategory:Beverages
ThirstGeneric Need:
Product Class:
Folger’s Starbuck’s Millstone Gevalia
Brands:
GroundWholeBean
InstantCoffee
Bag
Product Form:
Competition is: Everywhere & Everything
Time or $ spent (Budget Competition) on anything but your product/service is competition
Main Competition may be Rivalry Among Sellers (Brand Competition)…but Competition comes from all sides
Porter’s Porter’s 55 Forces Forces
Porter’s 5 ForcesModel of Competition
Suppliers Buyers
RivalryAmong
CompetingSellers
Substitute Products
(Category, Class, Form)
Threat ofMobility
More substitutes = lower prices
& profits
BuyerPowerfew, large buyers,
can bargain
down prices
Threat ofSubstitution
SupplierPower
few suppliers & supply costs
rise
SegmentRivalry
Increased competition
= lower profits
Potential NewEntrants
New CompetitorsEasy entry = lower prices
& profits
Gathering Competiti
ve Intelligen
ce
Competitive intelligence is a systematic way of identifying & gathering timely, relevant information about a company’s existing & potential competitors.
CI necessarily involves an audit of a wide range of competitors’ company structure, operations, personal & positions- such as:
Competitive intelligence is a systematic way of identifying & gathering timely, relevant information about a company’s existing & potential competitors.
CI necessarily involves an audit of a wide range of competitors’ company structure, operations, personal & positions- such as:
Financial PositionFinancial Position Market PositionMarket Position Product PositionProduct Position Price PositionPrice Position LogisticsLogistics
• Production ProcessProduction Process• Trade RelationsTrade Relations• Advertising & PromotionsAdvertising & Promotions• Executive ProfilesExecutive Profiles• Sales Force ProcessSales Force Process
Cultivating Your Competitive Intelligence
Sources
Internet Marketing Intelligence: Research Tools, Techniques, and Resources (Paperback) , ~2003by Edward Forrest
Chapter 5 Outlined 12 Steps for Conducting
CI on the Internet1. Check Key CI Resources2. Search for Company Information3. Search Your Competitors Web Sites & Personal Pgs4. Search for Trade Associations & Conferences5. Peruse Job/Career Sites6. Survey Competitor’s Customers On-Line7. Utilize Comparative-Shopping Services8. Search News Groups & Read Mailing Lists9. News You Can Use10. Personalize Your Information Searches11. Outsource the CI Function12. Use Search Engines
1. Check Key CI Resources2. Search for Company Information3. Search Your Competitors Web Sites & Personal Pgs4. Search for Trade Associations & Conferences5. Peruse Job/Career Sites6. Survey Competitor’s Customers On-Line7. Utilize Comparative-Shopping Services8. Search News Groups & Read Mailing Lists9. News You Can Use10. Personalize Your Information Searches11. Outsource the CI Function12. Use Search Engines
Delineated best Delineated best
WebsitesWebsites
& related& related
Biz-Info-ServicesBiz-Info-Services
CI Resource Index - http://www.bidigital.com/ci – Over 1,800 links to corporate & association
data, books, newsletters, journals, seminars and more
Fuld & Company, Internet Intelligence Index™ http://www.fuld.com/Tindex/I3.htmlLinks to over 600 intelligence-related sites
EDGAR http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml Society of CI Professionals http://www.scip.org
CI Resource Index - http://www.bidigital.com/ci – Over 1,800 links to corporate & association
data, books, newsletters, journals, seminars and more
Fuld & Company, Internet Intelligence Index™ http://www.fuld.com/Tindex/I3.htmlLinks to over 600 intelligence-related sites
EDGAR http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml Society of CI Professionals http://www.scip.org
1. Check Key CI Resource Sources
Selected Business Info Websites
• Business Wirehttp://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/index.jsp
• C-SPAN - http://www.cspan.org
• CAROL - Company Annual Reports Online for the United Kingdom http://www.carol.co.uk
• MarketWatch - http://marketwatch.com monitor company news, press releases, national/global financial data (RSS feeds and email alerts available)
• ChoicePoint Online - http://www.choicepointonline.com
• CNN Money Company Research Lookup- http://money.cnn.com/news/crc
• CNN Money, YellowBrix Industry Watch http://cnnmoney.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnnmoney/Headlines.nsp
Selected Business Info Websites (con’t)
• Corporate Library, Companies, Directors & CEOs http://www.thecorporatelibrary.com/Research/default.html ($)
• Dun & Bradstreet - http://www.dnb.com, subscription req’d
– ZapData http://www.zapdata.com
• EIU.com - http://www.eiu.com
– country intelligence
• Factiva - http://www.factiva.com
– news and business info, subscription req’d
• Fortune Company Profiles - http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/
– much of this data now requires subscription
• Forbes 500s - http://tinyurl.com/3guk
– Largest corporations by sales, profits, assets and market value
Selected Business Info Websites (con’t)
• Hoover’s Online - http://www.hoovers.com – Browse reports by industry sector, by selected topics,
reports by report type
• Investext http://library.dialog.com/bluesheets/html/bl0745.html
• KnowX.com - Public Records http://www.knowx.com free and fee
• LIVEDGAR - http://www.gsionline.com/livedgar/index.html, subscription req’d (now owned by Thomson Corp.)
• MSN Money - stock company reports, financial results, key ratios, income statements http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/profile.asp
Selected Business Info Websites (con’t)
• Moodys.com http://www.moodys.com/cust/default.asp subscription req’d
• Report Gallery - http://www.reportgallery.com
– Annual reports and 10K reports in HTML and PDF format
• Stocks and Stock Market Information from Reuters.com
– Headlines, company information/profiles, analyst research, industry watch. Some data requires subscription
– http://www.investor.reuters.com/StockEntry.aspx?target=/stocks
• SEC filings
– SECInfo.com - http://www.secinfo.com
• Disclosure Online Database-US Public Company Profiles
(Lexis) http://w3.nexis.com/sources/scripts/info.pl?3723 $
Selected Business Info Websites (con’t)
• Standard & Poor’s - http://tinyurl.com/3ikj subscription req’d
• Financial News Archive via Yahoo, http://biz.yahoo.com/top.html
• Mergerstat M&A Database - http://w3.nexis.com/sources/scripts/info.pl?156282 subscription req’d
• Thomas Register http://www.thomasregister.com subscription req’d
• Yahoo Financial News by Provider http://us.biz.yahoo.com/top.html
Selected Online People Trackers
• Accurint - http://www.accurint.com/, fee-based
• AutoTrackXP – http://www.atxp.com, subscription/fee req’d
• Dun & Bradstreet - http://www.dnb.com/US, subscription req’d
• Forbes.com People Tracker – reg. req’d http://www.forbes.com/cms/template/peopletracker/index.jhtml
• Lycos People Search - http://www.whowhere.lycos.com
• Search Systems - http://www.searchsystems.net
– over 35,000 (and counting) free, searchable public records databases from across the country. Some databases, as indicated with $, are fee-based.
• “Googling” a person: enter an individual’s name, “John Doe”
Online People Trackers
Who Represents Corporate America, ALM http://www.law.com/career_center/lists_rankings.shtml
• Who Represents/Protects IP America http://www.ipww.com/
• Who Represents America's Biggest Companies http://www.law.com/career_center/lists_rankings.shtml
• Nelson’s Public Company Profiles http://web.nexis.com/sources/scripts/info.pl?165421
• America’s Corporate Finance Directory http://www.lexisnexis.com/corpfinancedir – also useful for identification of other outside service providers, including
auditor, banker, pension manager, insurance carriers, investment banker, etc.
• Directory of Corporate Affiliations http://www.corporateaffiliations.com/content/cn_home.asp
• Standard & Poor’s Corporate Register http://web.nexis.com/sources/scripts/info.pl?3669
Web Directories and Portals
• CEOExpress - http://www.ceoexpress.com/default.asp
– Links to dozens of reliable, business related resources (fee and free)
• Lexis - http://www.lexis.com
• MagPortal - http://www.magportal.com/c/bus
– magazine articles on business
• Portal to International Business Resources
http://globaledge.msu.edu/ibrd/ibrd.asp
Web Directories and Portals (con’t)
• Wall Street Executive Library http://www.executivelibrary.com
– Directory of over 1,450 sources that includes: national/international news; company and industry, government, marketing and advertising, statistics and economic research
• Yahoo http://search.yahoo.com/bin/search?p=competitive+intelligence
– Pick and choose from long list of sites that includes links to vendors, consultants, white papers, articles, and research tools
Television and Radio News Transcripts – including streaming audio/video
• Bloomberg.com - http://www.bloomberg.com/tv $
• Transcripts.TV - http://www.transcripts.tv $
– ABC News programming and other network news programs.
• Federal News Service - http://www.fednews.com
– available via database, browser and RSS. $
• NPR: Transcripts and CDs - http://www.npr.org/transcripts $
• “The Television News Archive collection at Vanderbilt University is the world’s most extensive and complete archive of television news. The collection holds more than 30,000 individual network evening news broadcasts from the major U.S. national broadcast networks: ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN, and more than 9,000 hours of special news-related programming including ABC’s Nightline since 1989.” $, http://tvnews.vanderbilt.edu
• “TVEyes Video Search lets you search the Internet for TV clips” http://tveyes.com/ (free and fee)
News Alerts (con’t)
• Dow Jones MarketWatch.com - http://www.marketwatch.com/news/default.asp?siteid=mktw
– http://www.marketwatch.com/rss/default.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=10mw&
• Yahoo! Alerts - http://tinyurl.com/3mbqk
• Law.com Daily Legal Newswire - http://www.law.com/newswire
– RSS feed, http://www.law.com/newswire_rss.xml
• FindLaw email alerts - http://newsletters.findlaw.com/nl/
– daily opinion summaries, weekly opinion summaries, general topical newsletters
• Legislative monitoring and tracking
– Gallerywatch.com - http://www.gallerywatch.com subscription only
– CapitolHearings.org - http://www.capitolhearings.org
– CSPAN - www.c-span.org
– THOMAS - http://thomas.loc.gov
E-Newsletters, Online Newspapers, Journals and News Sources
• Biz Journals - http://www.bizjournals.com
• Bloomberg – http://www.bloomberg.com
• CNN Money - http://money.cnn.com
• Financial Times - http://news.ft.com/home/us $
• Forbes - http://www.forbes.com
• Fortune - http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/
• Investors Business Daily - http://www.investors.com
E-Newsletters, Online Newspapers, Journals and News Sources (con’t)
• Moreover - http://w.moreover.com/categories/category_list.html
• Newsisfree - http://www.newsisfree.com
• TheDeal.com - http://www.thedeal.com, subscription req’d
• Time.com: Inside Business http://www.time.com/time/insidebiz
• Wall Street Journal - http://online.wsj.com, subscription req’d
– WSJ company and industry news trackers, for reg’d users
– WSJ Free Features, http://online.wsj.com
– Law Blog, http://online.wsj.com
• Yahoo! Finance - http://finance.yahoo.com
• Yahoo! Financial News - http://biz.yahoo.com/ne.html
Monitoring Trends, Companies and Products – Selected News Aggregators and RSS Feeds
• News Aggregators
– List and links to dozens of news aggregators - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_news_aggregator
– Dmoz open directory project - http://tinyurl.com/5gl6
– Bloglines - http://www.bloglines.com
– NewzCrawler - http://www.newzcrawler.com
– NewsGator, runs in Microsoft Outlook - http://www.newsgator.com/home.aspx
– Rocket RSS Reader - http://reader.rocketinfo.com/desktop
– RocketInfo Desktop - http://www.rocketnews.com/info/portal.jsp
Monitoring Trends, Companies and Products – Selected News Aggregators and RSS Feeds (con’t)
• RSS Feeds – Look for Orange Icon that says either RSS, XML or Atom
– ABCNews - http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/RSS/listIndex
– BBC - http://tinyurl.com/2wzug
– Bizjournals.com - http://www.bizjournals.com/rss_promo
– Forbes.com - http://www.forbes.com/fdc/rss.shtml
– MarketWatch http://www.marketwatch.com/rss/default.asp?siteID=mktw
– New York Times - http://www.nytimes.com/services/xml/rss
– NPR - http://www.npr.org/rss/
– Reuters - http://www.reuters.com/newsrss.jhtml
– Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/rss/index.html
– Yahoo! News - http://news.yahoo.com/rss
Online Tools for Competitor Monitoring
• Website Trackers– Copernic Agent - http://www.copernic.com
– WebSite Watcher - http://aignes.com
– Web2Mail - http://www.web2mail.com/lite/welcome.php
– ChangeDetection - http://www.changedetection.com
– Tracerlock - http://www.tracerlock.com
Online Tools for Competitor Monitoring (con’t)
• Who’s Mailing What http://whosmailingwhat.com – sells competitive intelligence data on what
kind of direct mail programs other major firms are conducting - category 586 is legal services
• MarkMonitor http://www.markmonitor.com – domain name filings provide insight into
new law firm directions, service offerings
Selected Bibliographies, Guides & Books
• Better Management.com - http://tinyurl.com/m69p – Significant source of links to CI literature
• Business Information Searcher http://www.dataresources.co.uk/bissample.htm
• Competitive Intelligence Magazine http://www.scip.org/
• Competitive Intelligence Resource Guide http://www.burkhardtresearch.com/guide/books.html – More than one dozen recommended titles from the public
and private sector
• Helicon’s Articles & Book Reviews on CI and Related Topics - http://tinyurl.com/3iiq
Useful uTube Clip
•Yahoo Pipes
• Keyword Spy
•Compete
•Alexa
•Spy Fu
•Xinu
•Quantcast
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis Strategic Strategic PlanningPlanningStrategic Strategic PlanningPlanning
•CCompanyompany
•CConsumersonsumers
•CCompetitorsompetitors
•CConditionsonditions• PESTPEST
The Marketing Mix:The Marketing Mix:
Marketing StrategyMarketing Strategy
WMWM
TGTTGT
EEDD
CCNNGG
FF
Service
Growth & Growth & CompetitiveCompetitive StrategiesStrategies
P’s
Positioning Positioning StrategyStrategy
Next Task TodayNext Task Today
Macro-Environmental
Conditions
For each Domain-We’ll Examine:
1.What U need to know –scan & monitor…
2.What R best resources to use…
3.What R some of the most significant factors (recent past, present & near future) & their strategic implications.
Macro-Environmental
Conditions
Legal & Regulatory
1. What need to know
All Laws, Regulations & Guidelines
All Relevant lawmakers, Regulatory Agencies, Commissions & Personnel that create & enforce the laws, regs & guidelines..
All Laws, Regulations & Guidelines
All Relevant lawmakers, Regulatory Agencies, Commissions & Personnel that create & enforce the laws, regs & guidelines..
Political-Legal & Regulatory
Major Laws Affecting
Business…
• Sherman Antitrust Act (1890)– supports free trade & restrains
monopolistic activities
• Clayton Act (1914)– prohibits local price cutting to freeze out
competition
• Federal Trade Commission Act–(1914) creates the FTC to prevent unfair methods of competition
• Robinson-Patman Act (1936)– prohibits price discrimination to different
purchasers- AKA “Anti-chain-store Act”
• Lanham Act (1946)– protects & regulates brand names/marks
• Sherman Antitrust Act (1890)– supports free trade & restrains
monopolistic activities
• Clayton Act (1914)– prohibits local price cutting to freeze out
competition
• Federal Trade Commission Act–(1914) creates the FTC to prevent unfair methods of competition
• Robinson-Patman Act (1936)– prohibits price discrimination to different
purchasers- AKA “Anti-chain-store Act”
• Lanham Act (1946)– protects & regulates brand names/marks
2. Best ResourcesPolitical-Legal & Regulatory
World Trade Law-http://www.worldtradelaw.net/
Courtlink - http://www.lexisnexis.com/courtlink/online
CourtExpress - http://courtexpress.westlaw.com
ALM Research Online – http://www.almresearchonline.com
Law.com RSS Feeds - http://www.law.com/service/rss.shtml
World Trade Law-http://www.worldtradelaw.net/
Courtlink - http://www.lexisnexis.com/courtlink/online
CourtExpress - http://courtexpress.westlaw.com
ALM Research Online – http://www.almresearchonline.com
Law.com RSS Feeds - http://www.law.com/service/rss.shtml
3. Most significant factors / trends …
Political-Legal & Regulatory
Recent Past
Explosion of Regulations at Local, State & Federal
Levels
PresentGrowth of Regulation of
Global & Internet Commerce
Near Future
New legislation regarding: Copyright & Intellectual
Property Right
Today -No Shortage of Laws, Regulations & Guidelines:
Controlling Business & Marketing practices
Nor – No Shortage of Agencies, Commissions & Administrations to Enforce those Laws, Codes, Guidelines Nor – No Shortage of Agencies, Commissions & Administrations to Enforce those Laws, Codes, Guidelines
Rise of the
Bureaucrats
Rise of the
Bureaucrats
It Comes w/ a Cost:
While Regulation Necessary :
And its only going to get worse…
Governments are only now beginning to
address dramatic
challenges of global Internet
trade & eCommerce.
Stuart S. Malawer http://www.global-trade-law.com/
Trade & Foreign Policy Issues for the 21st
Century
1. Uniform Commercial Code for eCommerce
2. Customs & taxation 3. Electronic payment systems 4. Intellectual property protection 5. Privacy (data transfers)6. Cyber Security7. Content 8. Technical standards 9. Telecommunications Infrastructure,
Information Technology & Internet.– Telephone access, connection charges & other
restrictions as trade issues …FDI into domestic telecom & Internet industries. (Many foreign telecoms are still state owned.)
Macro-Environmental
Conditions
What need to know
1. ABILITY to Spend
2. WILLINGNESS to Spend
1. ABILITY to Spend
2. WILLINGNESS to Spend
Economic Factors
Economic Economic Forces-Forces- Need to Need to assess 2 key assess 2 key factors:factors:
1.1. ABILITY to SpendABILITY to Spend– Measure- Buying Power– Statistics on population, retail sales, & household
income*are combined to calculate a buying power Indexbuying power Index for specific demo and/or geographic area
Gross IncomeGross Income– Total HH-income earned in 1 year
Disposable IncomeDisposable Income– Amount of $ consumer has left after paying taxes
Discretionary IncomeDiscretionary Income– Amount of $ that remains after paying for taxes and
“necessities” (Used for LUXURY ITEMS)
Gross IncomeGross Income– Total HH-income earned in 1 year
Disposable IncomeDisposable Income– Amount of $ consumer has left after paying taxes
Discretionary IncomeDiscretionary Income– Amount of $ that remains after paying for taxes and
“necessities” (Used for LUXURY ITEMS)
- Best Resources - Buying PowerEconomic Factors Nielsen Claritas
Economic Forces-Economic Forces- Need to Need to assess 2 key factorsassess 2 key factors: 1: 1. Ability to . Ability to Spend &Spend &
2.2. WILLINGNESS to Spend WILLINGNESS to Spend
Consumer Confidence Index
Measures: 1. Current business conditions2. Business conditions for the
next six months3. Current employment conditions4. Employment conditions for the
next six months5. Total family income for the next
six months.
- Best Resource- Consumer Confidence
Economic Factors
www.conference-board.org/economics/crc.cfm
Consumer Confidence Index ®
® Bounces Back August 25, 2009
Other Valuable W3 Resources Info/Data on Economics
W3 provides instant access to key economic indicators: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product,
Unemployment Rate, Retail Trade, Average Weekly Earnings & company profits.
•Bureau of Labor Statistics stats.bls.gov•US Census Bureau www.census.gov/
W3 provides instant access to key economic indicators: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product,
Unemployment Rate, Retail Trade, Average Weekly Earnings & company profits.
•Bureau of Labor Statistics stats.bls.gov•US Census Bureau www.census.gov/
* Most significant factors / trends …Economic Factors
Recent Past
Collapse / Constriction of the Middle-Class
Present Globalization of the Economy-
Near Future
…Continued increase in outsourcing… spread to any & all tasks/jobs conducted on/thru the Internet
A Shrinking Middle Class
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Percent of households
1970 1980 1985 1994
Year
<25 K 25-50 K 50+ K
Middle class -shrinking size & purchasing power
Upper class - growing size & purchasing power
Lower class - growing size but not purchasing power
Key Economic Trends
Washington Post: “As Income Gap Widens, Uncertainty
Spreads”
Over last 30 yrs, top 100 CEO’s went from earning 39 times pay of their workers to more
than 1,000 times
Over last 30 yrs, top 100 CEO’s went from earning 39 times pay of their workers to more
than 1,000 times
Today U.S. most unequal distribution of wealth & income of any western society
The wealthiest 1% own more wealth than bottom 95%
The richest 13,000 families earn more than bottom 20 million
Bill Gates wealth exceeds the bottom 45% American households combined
Today U.S. most unequal distribution of wealth & income of any western society
The wealthiest 1% own more wealth than bottom 95%
The richest 13,000 families earn more than bottom 20 million
Bill Gates wealth exceeds the bottom 45% American households combined
Top .01 =6%Top 10% =~50%
2007 - % Total U.S. Wages
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class
1 hour lecture --Fact packed– but a bit of a snoozer–
Since 1967, we’ve lost 25+ million factory workers in America
In 1982, there were 417,000 temporary workers. Today= ~ 6 million
3.5 million -U.S. white-collar jobs moving offshore by 2015, averaging 200,000 a year. Source: Forrester Research Inc
1st Mfg.. then IT.. Next Management
Where the IT Jobs Go!Where the IT Jobs Go!
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Singapore
Russia
Phillipines
Malaysia
Canada
Ireland
Mexico
China
India
Source: Computer world and Interunity Group, Inc., April & May 2003Base: Survey of 252 corporate IT managers in the U.S.; multiple responses allowed
India graduates 300,000 IT engineers and 90,000
MBAs per year—and
now China produces more IT graduates
than India…
Why does your Why does your organization outsource to organization outsource to
non-U.S. locations?non-U.S. locations?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Reduce/Control Costs
Free up internal resources
Gain access to world-class capabilities
Increase revenue potential
Reduce time to market
Increase process efficiencies
Outsource non-core activities
Compensate for lack of appropriateskills
• The economy of work.. will be increasingly The economy of work.. will be increasingly hourglass-shapedhourglass-shaped..
•Growing divergence betw. those employed in highly skilled, highly paid professions, & those at bottom
• Outsourcing- Outsourcing- will continuewill continue. . •Reservation agents, computer programmers, database managers, financial analysts - all those whose jobs w/ repetitive tasks performed on a computer - will have been relocated abroad. ""Only the customer-facing jobs will be Only the customer-facing jobs will be left," left,"
• The economy of work.. will be increasingly The economy of work.. will be increasingly hourglass-shapedhourglass-shaped..
•Growing divergence betw. those employed in highly skilled, highly paid professions, & those at bottom
• Outsourcing- Outsourcing- will continuewill continue. . •Reservation agents, computer programmers, database managers, financial analysts - all those whose jobs w/ repetitive tasks performed on a computer - will have been relocated abroad. ""Only the customer-facing jobs will be Only the customer-facing jobs will be left," left,"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.htm
Macro-Environmental
Conditions
1. What Socio-cultural Factorsneed to know…
Nothing less than the nature & magnitude of change in people’s attitudes, beliefs, norms, customs, & lifestyles …
…especially w/ respect to evaluations, values & behaviors relevant to perception of /preference for your “product”
Nothing less than the nature & magnitude of change in people’s attitudes, beliefs, norms, customs, & lifestyles …
…especially w/ respect to evaluations, values & behaviors relevant to perception of /preference for your “product”
Trend Monitoring Other
Useful Sites
www.iconoculture.com/
www.psfk.com/
www.trendhunter.com/
www.ubercool.com/
www.google.com/trends HOW TO USE: Google~Trends
The Merchants of Cool – Hunting for cool
Examples of Trend-Spotting Research
Services
~ Significant Socio-cultural trends…
Recent Past
Meltdown of the “Traditional Family”
Present
Growth of Clanning: “Social networking” & Virtual communities…
Near Future
Dramatic aging of US population-
as # Senior-Citizens will double betw. now & 2030…
NUCLEAR FAMILY MELTDOWN
05
1015202530354045
1970 1980 1990 2000
Married Couples +Children
Married Couples noChildren
Other FamilyArrangements
Men Living Alone
Women LivingAlone
Other NonfamilyHouseholds
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population
Married Couple without children
Married Couple without children
“Traditional” Family
“Traditional” Family
More Single Adult
Households
More Single Adult
Households
High Divorce Rate
High Divorce Rate
“Traditional” Family-
meltdown
“Traditional” Family-
meltdown
Trends in US Households and Families
Unmarried Living
Together
Unmarried Living
Together
More Americans Live Alone,
By 2000 ~ 27.2 million Americans lived alone
= 26 % of all households and ~9.7% of the overall U.S. population.
Re: Manhattan Solos accounted for 48 percent of all households ..
By 2000 ~ 27.2 million Americans lived alone
= 26 % of all households and ~9.7% of the overall U.S. population.
Re: Manhattan Solos accounted for 48 percent of all households ..
43% of first marriages end in separation or
divorce within 15 years.
Women 20-24 who have never married, as a % of all women 20-24.
1960 1980 1998
28.4 % 51.2 % 70.3 %
Women 20-24 who have never married, as a % of all women 20-24.
1960 1980 1998
28.4 % 51.2 % 70.3 %
People getting married later & divorced sooner
Our Society is skewing
older in age & more diverse in ethnicity & lifestyle….
58
3
16
48
26
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
All Hispanic Non-HispanicWhite
Black Asian AmericanIndian
PacificIslander
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 and 2000 censuses.
% Growth in U.S. Ethnic Diversity - 1990-2000
Population aged 65+ (in millions)
16.620
25.631.1
34.739.4
53.2
69.475.2
78.9
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population aged 65+ (in millions)
16.620
25.631.1
34.739.4
53.2
69.475.2
78.9
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: “Data Base News in Aging,” U.S. Census Bureau,
# in millions
65+
2050 ------- 90+2000 ------- 771900 ------- 471600 ------- 381400 ------- 361200 ------- 351000 ------- 25
Source: Census Bureau, 2000
Life Expectancy
Years Spent in Retirement
2000+ ----- 20 TO 251990 ------- 19.4 YEARS1940 ------- 13.6 YEARS1900 ------- 1.2 YEARS
43% of first marriages end in separation or divorce within 15 years.
NUCLEAR
FAMILY
MELTDOWN
26% people living alone
The break-up of the “traditional –family & home”
coupled w/ the pressure &
uncertainties of work
has resulted in an increasing
tension & feeling of isolation
3.1 million
Jobs-
Outsourced
In response to that isolation millions of individuals are coalescing into clans…”
Clanning= The growing need to join up with / belong to groups to
confront a more chaotic world.
Faith Popcorn- Brain Reserve
Creation & Facilitation of Virtual Communities:
Collection of consumers whose online interactions are based upon shared enthusiasm for & knowledge of a specific consumption activity
Communities of TransactionCommunities of Transaction : E-bay, Amazon–
Communities of FantasyCommunities of Fantasy: multitude of on-line & wireless games…
Communities of RelationshipCommunities of Relationship: informational, professional & social interaction- E-harmony
Communities of TransactionCommunities of Transaction : E-bay, Amazon–
Communities of FantasyCommunities of Fantasy: multitude of on-line & wireless games…
Communities of RelationshipCommunities of Relationship: informational, professional & social interaction- E-harmony
Some of most successful marketers today build & facilitate -Brand Communities
A specialized, non-geographically bound community, based on a structured set of social admirers of a brand; intrinsic connection that members feel toward one another & collective sense of difference from others not in the community
e.g., Apple, Harley Davidson, Saturn, ~designer labels/prestige brands…
A specialized, non-geographically bound community, based on a structured set of social admirers of a brand; intrinsic connection that members feel toward one another & collective sense of difference from others not in the community
e.g., Apple, Harley Davidson, Saturn, ~designer labels/prestige brands…
Build & Faciltate Brand Communities w/ & thru Social Networking
– Social network: every individual is a “node” in the jargon of social analysis, with social “links” (channels of communication and social bonds) to other individuals
Social Networking facilitated by Plethora of Internet & Cell-Phone Services
Social Networking Sites– MySpaceMySpace hit #1 on web —
29 billion pageviews during two weeks in July 2006..beating Yahoo & Google (cnn.com)…
– FacebookFacebook …w/ 70+ million users
Social Networking Sites– MySpaceMySpace hit #1 on web —
29 billion pageviews during two weeks in July 2006..beating Yahoo & Google (cnn.com)…
– FacebookFacebook …w/ 70+ million users
www.myfaves.com/
Macro-Environmental
Conditions
Technological breakthroughs- Simultaneously destroy long established industries…and
Technological breakthroughs- Simultaneously destroy long established industries…and
..create new competition & spawn new business enterprises
•New Technologies are in & of themselves new products/systems to be marketed•New Tech. impacts production, packaging, channel mgt & sales costs -- thus impacts Pricing•Technological advancements in transportation, shipping, vending & e-commerce impact DistributionNew Comm. Tech’s impact marketing promotion
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
TargetTargetMarketMarket
Product Place
PromotionPrice
www.uspto.gov
#1. Best resource for monitoring technological developments …
#1. Best resource for monitoring business applications of
technological developments … www.springwise.com/
~ Significant Technological Factors
/ trends …
Recent Past
Commercialization of the Internet
Present Social & Mobile ComPunications
Near Future
Transition from client-server to the Cloud &
from GUI to LUI
Commercialization of the Internet
Until 1993-The GENERAL PRINCIPLE of Internet Use:
“NSFNET Program Backbone services are provided to support research and education in and among US research and education institutions and for private or personal communication incidental to such activities… Use for other purposes, including extensive use for private or personal business, is not acceptable.
1993- National Information Infrastructure Act is passed-- Internet commercialized
1993- National Information Infrastructure Act is passed-- Internet commercialized
COMPUTERSHOSTS IN INTERNET (MILLONS)
5.000.000
20.000.000
25.000.000
25
20
15
10
5
01969 JUL.
1989SEP.1991
JUL.1992
OCT.1993
ENER.1995
ABR1996
FEB.1997
NOV.1997
MAR.1994
JUL.1995
SEP.1996
JUL.1997
130.0004
The new social form made possible by the combination of computation,
communication, reputation, and location awareness (p.169-170)
Current Significant Techno-trendCurrent Significant Techno-trendThe New MEdiaThe New MEdia
New Media New Media MOBILE MEDIASOCIAL MEDIA
Mobile Commerce:
--any NE-commerce done in a wireless environment, – Creates opportunity to
deliver new services to existing customers and to attract new ones
Mcomm-Applications Shopping: ticket purchases, reservations, comparison
shopping Finance - statements, funds transfer, shares trading M-billing - notification, presentation and payment of bills Enterprise access - inventory, shipment/sales updates,
email access M-care - customer service, payment status, other backroom
operations Entertainment – music, games, gambling, interactive multi-
player events Messaging - communication and collaboration Travel - scheduling, advisories, reservations Location-smart services - traffic reports, event information
& recommendations…..
Revenue streams
End-user payment for content
– Subscription models: monthly fee and/or per-usage fee
Advertising, sponsorship, product placement, etc.
End-user payment for access & networking
Mobile is bridging the Digital Divide
•5 billion mobile users by 2015. *Nokia report
•Mobile -at the centre of Social
Networking and a key driver of UGC.
•Mobile technology, -being designed for
new uses rather than voice.
•In many countries like India and Japan,
a persons 1st connection to Internet -is
their mobile!
App Store StatsApp Store Stats
App Store MomentumApp Store Momentum
• On Feb 14th, 2009 – 218 days after launch of the App Store – there were 20,397 apps.
• Current App Launch Momentum: 1,400 new apps launched/week 400 new games launched/week.
Note: Analysis, Feb 14, 2009Weeks Since App Store Launch
Num
ber
of
App
s
0,397
App Store CategoriesApp Store Categories
Note: Analysis, Feb 14, 2009
27%
7%
14%
9%
8%6%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38
4%4%
3%
5%
3%
Applications
60,000 APPS1.5 Billion Downloads
Shop Savvy
mCommerce • Part 1: Where Are We Now? •Part 2: The Evolution •Part 3: How To Make it Work
mCommerce • Part 1: Where Are We Now? •Part 2: The Evolution •Part 3: How To Make it Work
New Media New Media MOBILE MEDIASOCIAL MEDIA
If you are still avoiding social media:
….And what Techno-developments are in our Near Future????
… in the way we live, live,
communicatecommunicate,work, ,work,
produce & produce & consume…consume…
… in the way we live, live,
communicatecommunicate,work, ,work,
produce & produce & consume…consume…
We’re in midst of
next great Paradigm Paradigm
ShiftShift……
We’re in midst of
next great Paradigm Paradigm
ShiftShift……
130
Info-Processing, Applications &
Storage
2010 20302020
131
132
133
Radar Networks
Evolution of the Platform…
• 1980’s -- The Desktop is the platform
• 1990’s -- The Browser / Server is the platform
• 2000’s -- Web Services are the platform
• 2010’s -- The Semantic Web is the platform
• 2020’s -- The WebOS is the platform
• 2030’s -- The Human Body is the platform…?
Radar Networks
Connections between people
Social Networking
Groupware
JavascriptWeblogs
Databases
File Systems
HTTPKeyword Search
USENET
Wikis
Websites
Directory Portals
Web 1.0 1990 - 2000
PC Era 1980 - 1990
RSSWidgets
PC’s
Office 2.0
XML
RDF
SPARQLAJAX
FTP IRC
SOAP
Mashups
File Servers
Social Media Sharing
Lightweight Collaboration
ATOM
Web 4.0
Semantic SearchSemantic Databases
Distributed Search
Intelligent personal agents
JavaSaaS
Web 2.0 Flash
OWL
HTML
SGML
SQLGopher
P2P
The Web
The PC
Windows
MacOS
SWRL
OpenID
BBS
MMO’s
VR
Semantic Web
Intelligent Web
The Internet
Social Web
Web OS
Connections between Information
2000 - 2010
2020 - 2030
Web 3.0 2010 - 2020
Web 1.0
-Sites tend 2b read-only static pages & files..
.. click a page & wait. were huge, bloated & buggy
-The desktop PC & operating system reigned supreme.
The paradigm is all about folders & directories.
Marketing rooted in Mass Media Techniques
Web 2.0: Evolution
Web 1.0HTML pages viewed thru a
browser
Web 2.0 “content” shared –
interactive Exchange;
“Read” Mode “Write” & Contribute
“Page” Primary content “Post / record”
“static” State “dynamic”
Web browser Viewed through… Browsers & RSS Readers
“Client Server” Architecture “Web Services”
Web Coders Content Created by… Everyone
“geeks” Domain of… “masses”
The semantic web connects: Information1 + People2 + Everything else3…..
People
Groups
EmailsCompanies
Products
Services
Web Pages
Multimedia
Documents
Events
Projects
Activities
Interests
Places
Web 1.0 - Web 2.0 - Web 3.0-…
Web 1.0 - Web 2.0 - Web 3.0-…
Resource Description Framework (RDF) / W3C Semantic Web Activity
Radar Networks
Future Outlook• NOW
o Early-Adoptiono A few killer apps emergeo Other apps start to integrate
• 2010 – 2020o Mainstream Adoptiono Semantics widely used in Web content and
apps
• 2020 +o Next big cycle: Reasoning and A.I. o The Intelligent Webo The Web learns and thinks collectively
The Symbiotic Age
A time when computers “speak our language.”
A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires.
A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other.
Personality Capture &
Transhumanity
In the long run, we become seamless w/ our machines.“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.”
In the long run, we become seamless w/ our machines.“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.”
Within 25 years, Artificial
intelligence will match the range
& subtlety of human
intelligence
The Singularity is Near
Surviving the Singularity
Case study: How Environmental Scan of Macro-environmental trends impacted John Deere Marketing Strategy