PAKISTANT H R E A T A S S E S S M E N T APRIL 2014

The attack on Hamid Mir on April 19 highlighted the issue of journalist safety in Pakistan

SECURITY SITUATIONOVERVIEW

PAKISTAN

• In April, the security situation in Pakistan deteriorated due to the increase in the number of incidents in Balochistan and the TTP’s decision not to extend the ceasefire past April 10. The overall number of incidents increased by 19%, while the number of casualties saw an almost 50% increase. The number of pro-government security operation in April reduced, but the number of casualties saw a significant increase.

• On April 16, the TTP spokesman Shahidullah Shahid announced the group’s decision not to extend the ceasefire that expired on April 10, because the government ignored the TTP’s demands. However, the group remained committed to the peace talks. This increases the likelihood of the Taliban attacks, as the ceasefire is officially over. Any major attacks are unlikely, while the Taliban is still interested in the peace talks. A major attack will result in a strong military response and subsequent breakdown of the talks.

• The end of the ceasefire increases the likelihood of attack on the government targets. The TTP spokesman suggested that while there will be no attacks on the public places, the group considers government sites to be fair targets. This, however, does not mean that public places should be considered safe, as the TTP splinter groups interested in the breakdown of the talks would attempt to interfere with any peace plans by attacking civilians. Baloch-associated groups, such as UBA, also consider civilians to be fair targets.

• The most impactful incident in April was registered in Islamabad on April 9, when 24 people were killed by a blast at a fruit market. The United Baloch Army (UBA) took responsibility for this attack and the April 8 attack at Sibi railway station that killed 17 people. The UBA, one of the Baloch separatist groups, claimed that the attack was carried out in response to the governments’ actions in Balochistan. The Pakistani government rejected the claim of UBA’s involvement in the attacks. However, no other group has claimed responsibility.

• The security situation in Karachi does not show any signs of improvement, despite of the ongoing targeted operation. Sindh Chief Minister directed the police to intensity the operation following the attack on a Geo TV journalist, Hamid Mir.

• The attack on Hamid Mir once again highlighted that Pakistan is a dangerous place for journalists. In addition to that, it empathized the complex relationship between the media, the military and the government in Pakistan, as Hamid Mir blamed the ISI for the attack.

PA

KIS

TAN

HEA

T M

AP

KA

RA

CH

HEA

T M

AP

The security situation in Karachi does not show any signs of improvement despite of the ongoing targeted operation. In the end of April, Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah directed the police to intensify the targeted operation, accepting that a lot more needs to be done to see any improvements in the city.

In 2013, 80% of murders in Karachi could be classified as targeted killings. In 2014, this trend continues. On a daily basis, armed men on motorcycles open fire at their victims, before escaping. The vast majority of targeted killings remain unsolved. Most victims tend to be members of a religious group and/or have some affiliation with a political party. While the criminal landscape of Karachi is very complex, with the Taliban, Lyari gangs and other groups involved in violence in the city, the militant wings of political parties are responsible for the majority of targeted killings. This makes the targeted operation extremely complex and unlikely to succeed, as those responsible for political decision making are often indirectly involved in tit-for-tat targeted killings.

In April, Karachi saw a number of targeted killings that involved political workers (i.e. Apr 5 –ASWJ worker shot dead in Malir, Apr 10 – lawyer and Karachi VP for PML-N shot dead, Apr 14 – 3 people affiliated with ASWJ and PST shot dead), religiously motivated attacks (i.e. Apr 25 –4 killed by IED targeting a mosque in Delhi colony; Apr 28 – 3 children killed in a hand grenade attack targeting a seminary in SITE) and attacks against policemen (i.e. Apr 7 – militants attacked police post in Sohrab Goth, injuring Deputy Superintendent, Apr 24 – suicide attack killed a senior police offices and several others in Old Sabzi Mandi area).

The most impactful targeted attack was registered on April 19, when unknown gunmen opened fire at Hamid Mir, a prominent television presenter for Geo TV and strong critic of Pakistan’s military. While nobody took responsibility for the attack, Hamid Mir suggested that the ISI were behind the incident, as he has previously received threats from the intelligence agency. The investigation is ongoing, but few expect it to be successful.

The kidnapping of two local UNICEF employees on Arp 17 also attracted a lot of attention. The victims were reportedly kidnapped when returning from a picnic on the outskirts of the city. They have been recovered following a joint venture by Citizens Police Liaison Committee and Anti-Violent Crime Cell. The victims are belied to be safe and well, but their kidnappers managed to escape. There are no confirmed reports stating the exact reason for their kidnapping, but it is suspected that they were kidnapped for ransom.

SECURITY SITUATIONKARACHI

KARACHI

12 3

4

8

910

11

12

13

1415

1617

18

A

B C

D

E

F

5 6

7

Karachi South1. Lyari Town2. Saddar Town3. Jamshed Town

Karachi Central8. Liaquatabad Town9. North Nazimabad Town10. Gulberg Town11. New Karachi Town

Karachi East4. Gulshan Town5. Korangi Town6. Landhi Town7. Shah Fiscal Town

Karachi West12. Kemari Town13. SITE Town14. Baldia Town15. Orangi Town

Malir16. Malir Town17. Bin Qasim Town18. Gadap Town

CantonmentsA. Karachi CantonmentB. Clifton CantonmentC. Korangi Creek CantonmentD. Faisal CantonmentE. Malir CantonmentF. Manora Cantonment

2 UNICEF employees were kidnapped on Apr 17. They have been recovered on Apr 21

26 pound IED was defused by BDS in PECHS area of Karachi on Apr 9

Hamid Mir was attacked and injured by unidentified gunmen on Apr 19

Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) commander killed by Rangers in Lyari on Apr 26

3 children killed by a hand grenade targeting a seminary in SITE on Apr 28

3 separate grenade attacks injured 4 people in Karachi on Apr 8

3 people affiliated with ASWJ and PST were shot dead on Apr 14

4 killed by IED targeting a mosque in Delhi colony on Apr 25

High crime areas of Karachi (2013)

Senior police inspector & 2 others killed, 15 injured by IED on Apr 24

Lawyer & PML-N VP in Karachi was shot dead by unknown gunmen on Apr 10

PAKISTAN

SECURITY SITUATIONLAHORE, RAWALPINDI AND OTHER

LAHORE:

• The majority of incidents registered in Lahore in April were related to domestic issues or petty crime, with the notable exception of a blast targeting Ichra area of the city, which left 12 people injured. The explosion was conducted by extortionists, who threatened one of the shops in the area.

• The majority of casualties were caused by clashed between criminals and police (Apr 2 – police shot dead a thief, Apr 28 – police killed 2 accused, etc.).

PAKISTAN

Pakistani army conducted air strike, killing 15 militants in Khyber on Apr 24

At least 12 people were injured by explosion in Ichhraon Apr 11

Several deaths attributed to swine flu were registered in Lahore in April

20 killed, 70 wounded by a bomb targeting a market in Islamabad on Apr 9 – UBA responsible

4 killed, 33 injured by explosion targeting police in Charsadda on Apr 22

9 people killed in 2 separate attacks in Peshawar on Apr 22

17 killed, 50 wounded by a bomb on Jaffar Express near Sibi on Apr 8 – UBA responsible

100 villages kidnapped from Khyber area in a suspected Taliban attack on Apr 12

Countrywide protests followed the attack on Hamid Mir in Karachi

At least 5 killed in a shooting incident in a hotel in Kot Khadakarea on Apr 9

Six high-profile Lashkar-e-Jhangvi terrorists arrested in Lahore on Apr 19

xx At least 42 people were injured by gas balloons exploding in Lahore on Apr 20

A lawyer and his nephew shot dead outside district court in Pindi on Apr 11

OTHER:

• In April, the highest number of incidents was took place in Balochistan, closely followed by Sindh and KP.

• The TTP accused the government of violating the ceasefire and ignoring the group’s demands. The TTP announced their decision not to extend the ceasefire past Apr 10. As a result, the military are slowly restarting their operations (i.e. Apr 24 the military airstrikes killed at least 35 TTP insurgents in Khyber agency). Any major operations are unlikely while the peace talks are still on the agenda. There are also reports of foreign militants based in and around North Waziristan preparing to leave Pakistan for Afghanistan or Syria, as they fear the government offensive that would follow if the peace talks were to break down.

• Balochistan violence intensified, with at least 50 people killed in April. The most impactful incident took place near Sibi train station, with 17 people killed and 50 wounded.

• The LoC tensions are back on the agenda, as both India and Pakistan accused one another of several incidents of unprovoked firing.

RAWALPINDI/ISLAMABAD:• On April 9, an IED went off at a vegetable market in Islamabad, killing 24 people and

injuring 116 others. The UBA has claimed responsibility for the attack, claiming that it was carried out in retaliation to a military operation in Kalat district, Balochistan on April 7. The TTP condemned the attack. Pakistan’s security agencies suspect that the UBA had nothing to do with the attack and some suggest that the attack was ordered by high-ranking members of the TTP to ‘convince’ the government to fulfill their demands. Either scenario is concerning. If the attack was carried out by the UBA, it demonstrated that Baloch separatist groups are highly capable of carrying out major attacks outside of Balochistan. If the attack was indeed ordered by the TTP, it shows that the group was willing to manipulate the government with violence even during the ceasefire.

• Rawalpindi was put on high alert following the incident in Islamabad.

SECURITY SITUATIONTRENDS & GRAPHS

PAKISTAN

• The security situation in Pakistan deteriorated due to the end of the ceasefire between the government and the TTP and the increase in the number of incidents in Balochistan. The level of activity is now close to the one seen in February, with the exception Waziristan. The number of incidents North and South Waziristan saw a slight increase following the decision not to extend the ceasefire, but it still remains lower than usual

• The number of incidents and pro-government security operations increased after the TTP announced their decision not to extend the ceasefire

• Targeted killings accounted for the majority of incidents in Pakistan. As expected, the majority of targeted killings were registered in Karachi, where the security situation remains poor

HEAT MAPS INCIDENT TYPE

FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL

INCIDENT FREQUENCY

MARCH - APRIL

COMMENTS

SECURITY SITUATIONTRAVEL ADVISORY

PAKISTAN

It is advised not to travel to some areas of Pakistan. Security situation is unpredictable and there is a high threat from terrorism, kidnap and sectarian violence throughout the country.

Many attacks over the last year have focused on Pakistani Government targets, places of worship and religious sites.

Karachi continues to experience high levels of political and sectarian violence. A Rangers-lead security operation is currently taking place in various areas of the city.

Violent crime is a problem, particularly in Karachi. Armed robbery, shootings and armed carjackings often occur in major cities.

Petty crime is common. Ensure that your personal belongings, passports and other travel documents are secure at all times.

Avoid large gatherings that may turn violent.

The situation in North Waziristan remains unpredictable.

Travellers are charged a cash-only departure fee.

Ensure you have the correct visa for travel and work in Pakistan. Carry copies of your passport and visa at all times.

Heightened security measures are currently in place throughout the country. Checkpoints may be set up without warning.

POLITICAL SITUATION PAKISTAN

Hamid Mir, a famous Pakistani news anchors and investigative journalist associated with the Geo TV network, was attacked by a group of men on motorcycles in Karachi on April 19. He was on his way to the Geo TV offices, when four gunmen on motorcycles shot him six times in a typical for Karachi incident scenario. The victim was shifted to the hospital and his is believed to be out of danger. The attack on Hamid Mir caused widespread protests across the country. This was not the first attack on the journalist. In 2012, the Taliban attempted to assassinate him by planting a car bomb, which failed to go off.

This incident once again highlighted that Pakistan is a dangerous country for journalists. In 2013, five journalists lost their lives; in 2014, one journalist and three media workers were killed. Journalists are often threatened by the Taliban and the ISI, Pakistan’s main intelligence agency known for trying to ‘control’ the media.

Both the Taliban and the ISI denied responsibility for carrying out the attack. However, Geo TV, Pakistan’s largest private news channel and Hamid Mir’s employer, directly accused the ISI of attempting to murder the journalist, claiming that he was being threatened by the intelligence agency shortly before the incident. Hamid Mir is known for exploring controversial topics. He has recently generated a lot of publicity by covering the cases of “forced disappearances” in Balochistan and Pervez Musharraf’s treason trial. Both of these topics are extremely sensitive in the eyes of the military and the intelligence services. The ISI are known for brining in journalists for questioning that sometimes involves beatings and torture. They are also suspected of occasionally murdering journalist. Considering the ISI methods and potential motives, it is plausible that the attack on Hamid Mir was ordered by the ISI.

The reaction to the attack highlighted the complex relationship between the private media, the military and the government. Following the Geo TV’s accusations against the ISI, the defence department filed a complain against the channel seeking the suspension of its licence and accusing it of conducting "a vicious campaign, libellous and scandalous in nature... against a state institution tasked to work for the defence, sovereignty and integrity of Pakistan“. While the complaint is being considered, the Jang Group (incl. Geo TV) owner, claimed that the ISI has long been seeking for a reason to shut down Geo and promote the ISI sponsored TV station, Bol. The Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharis, has publically condemned the attack on Hamid Mir. However, shortly after the Geo TV accused the ISI of ordering the attack, Nawaz Sharif sided with the agency by publically praising the ISI for "ensuring protection and defence of the country“.

The attack on Hamid Mir highlighted that Pakistan is a dangerous place to be a journalist. If the ISI were in fact behind the attack, it means that the military and the government share ”the odds justify the means” mentality, when it comes keeping uncomfortable issues buried. Following the attack, Hamid Mir once again blamed the ISI and the ISI Chief for ordering the attack and stated that “some elements of ISI harbor extreme hostility against me for my opinion, views and stance on Pervez Musharraf and issues of Balochistan.” This shows that there are journalists in Pakistan willing to rise difficult questions, but the future of the private media in Pakistan is unclear. The military are seeking the closure of the Geo TV network and it remains to be seen if the government sides with them once again.

ATTACK ON HAMID MIR HIGHLIGHTED THE COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MEDIA, THE MILITARY AND THE GOVERNMENT

SOCIAL MEDIA PAKISTAN

On the Hamid Mir attack…

On the United Baloch Army…

On the explosion in Islamabad…

VIDEO: Aftermath of the explosion in Islamabadhttp://vimeo.com/91487893#at=0

SOCIAL MEDIA PAKISTAN

#TWITTER TRENDS IN PAKISTAN

#BanGeo

#AfghanElections

#FakeDemocracy

The #BanGeo campaign restarted after Geo TV aired accusations that the ISI were behind the attack on Hamid Mir. Geo TV came under criticism for these remarks from rival TV channels.

Surprisingly, the Afghan elections received very limited attention on twitter, with the #AfghanElections trend occupying one of the top-20 positions for two days only. In comparison, cricket matches attracted a lot more attention. Those, who decided to comment on the Afghan elections were dissatisfied with the negative attitude towards Pakistan during the campaign.

#FakeDemocracy was first mentioned in December 2013, when Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri used it to describe the lack of accountability in politics. It regained popularity in mid-April, following the allegations that the ISI were behind the attack on Hamid Mir. The hashtag remained popular until the end of April.

PAKISTANAPRIL 2014T H R E A T A S S E S S M E N T

SicuroIMS Information

SicuroIMS is the specialist information service of Sicuro Group LLC, providing extensive threat warning services and analytical insight for clients operating in the Middle East, South Asia and Africa. SicuroIMS products include timely SMS and email alerts, daily security briefs and in-depth analytical reports, each designed to assist clients in operational planning, risk management and fulfilling their duty of care to staff and contractors in high risk environments. SicuroIMS also maintains a comprehensive database of geo-tagged security incident reports, enabling clients to view security trends and use the data for their own analysis.

For more information, free trials and subscription support contact info@SicuroIMS.com or visit our website http://www.sicuroims.com/