shinkansen investment before and after jnr reformshinkansen projects by jnr roundtable on the...

Institute of Transportation Economics in Japan

Fumio KUROSAKI, Ph.D.

Shinkansen Investment before

and after JNR Reform

Outline of Presentation

1) Shinkansen Projects in JNR Era

2) Shinkansen Projects after JNR Reform

3) Through-Train Operation in Japan

4) Investment & Performance of Shinkansen Lines

Roundtable on the Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail New Delhi, India 18-19 December 2013

Shinkansen Projects by JNR


Niigata

Joetsu Shinkansen

Ueno

Morioka

Omiya

Tohoku Shinkansen Okayama

Hakata

Sanyo Shinkansen

Tokyo

Tokaido Shinkansen

Shin-Osaka

JNR Reform in April 1987


JR-East

JR-Central

JR-West

JR-Shikoku JR-Kyushu

JR-Hokkaido

Shinkansen operation was

divided into JR East, JR Central

and JR West

Projects after JNR Reform (1)


<Shinkansen Lines>

Tokyo

Ueno

(Shin-)Osaka

Hakata

Completed since JNR reform

Takasaki

Nagano

Hokuriku

Shinkansen Tohoku Shinkansen

Morioka

Shin-Aomori

Kagoshima-Chuo

Kyushu Shinkansen

Sapporo

Takeo-Onsen

Nagasaki

Tsuruga

Under construction

Completed by JNR reform (1987)

Planning stage

Projects after JNR Reform (2)


Fukushima

Shinjo

Akita

<Conventional Line> Mini-Shinkansen

(completed)

(Dedicated) High-speed train Mini-Shinkansen train

Line Length and Transport Volume


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Total Operating Line Length Total Transport Volume

Source: Institute of Transportation Statistics (1995), MLIT (2013)

(Transport Volume: million passenger-km) (Line Length: km)

Construction of New Shinkansen Lines


<New Shinkansen Lines>

Completed since JNR reform

Under construction

Hokuriku

Shinkansen Tohoku

Shinkansen

Kyushu Shinkansen

Subsidies from Government

(Central Gov. : Local Gov. = 2:1)

Lease Fee

paid by JR

1. Construction: Public Works

Construction Cost

2. Operation: Vertical Separation

JR Companies responsible for O&M

Lease Lease Fee

JRTT (Government Agency)

Owner of Infra. & Facilities

Usage Fees


Case without Shinkansen Line

Case with a Shinkansen Line

a

b

: Expected Revenue

: Expected Expenses Usage fees of new Shinkansen Lines

The amount is calculated

based on “b-a”

Benefits received as an

operator of the new

Shinkansen Line

(Calculation Period) 30 years old

Network of Railway A

Rolling Stock of Railway A

Rolling Stock of Railway B

Network of Railway B

Operation by Railway A Operation by Railway B

Revenue to Railway A Revenue to Railway B


Through-Train Operation in Japan (1)


Kagoshima

-Chuo

Tokyo

Shin-Osaka

Hakata

JR-Kyushu JR-West JR-Central

Terminal Station

Border Station

Border Station

Terminal Station

Tokaido Shinkansen Sanyo Shinkansen Kyushu Shinkansen

Clear Separation of Operational Responsibility

Through-train services

Through-train services



Timetable at Tokyo Station

3 minute train headway


Transport Volume of the Lines


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Tokaido Sanyo Tohoku Joetsu Hokuriku Kyushu

Source: MLIT (2013), JR West (2013), JR Central (2007; 2013a)

(Unit: million passenger km)


Passenger Traffic Density (1)

Passenger Traffic Density (passengers/day)

= Transport Volume (Passenger km)/ (Operating Line Length × Operating Days)

Passenger

Traffic Density

A Sta. B Sta. C Sta. D Sta.

Number of Passengers

Transport Volume (Passenger km）

Operating Line Length


Passenger Traffic Density (2)

No. Name of Shinkansen Line Traffic Density

１ Tokaido 219.6

２ Sanyo 71.8

３ Tohoku 50.8

４ Joetsu 39.6

５ Hokuriku 17.8

６ Kyushu 17.3

Table: Traffic Density of Shinkansen Lines in 2011

Source: Calculation based on MLIT (2013), JR West (2013), JR Central (2013a)

(Unit: thousand passengers / day)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1)

Tokyo

- O

miy

a

2)

Om

iya

- U

tsunom

iya

3)

Uts

unom

iya

- F

ukushim

a

4)

Fukushim

a

- S

endai

5)

Sendai

- Ichin

oseki

6)

Ichin

oseki

- M

ori

oka

7)

Mori

oka

- H

achin

ohe

8)

Hachin

ohe

- S

hin

-A

om

ori

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1) O

miy

a

- T

akas

aki

2) T

akas

aki

- E

chig

oY

uza

wa

3)

Echig

oY

uza

wa

-

Niig

ata

4) T

akas

aki

-N

agan

o

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Passenger Traffic Density (3) Closer to Tokyo Closer to Tokyo

Tohoku Shinkansen Line Joetsu and Hokuriku Shinkansen Line

1) Transport volume is large The section closer to Tokyo

Source: JR East (2013)

2) Ridership is increasing

Shinkansen Commuters


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,00019

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

04

Kyushu

Hokuriku

Joetsu

Tohoku

Tokaido & Sanyo

(Persons)

Source: MLIT (2013)

Shinkansen expanded the commutable districts around Metropolitan areas.

The sale of Shinkansen commuter passes is increasing.

Revenue from Shinkansen & Conventional Lines


【1. Revenue from Shinkansen Lines】【2 Revenue from Conventional Lines】

(Unit: billion yen) (Unit: billion yen)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

JR East JR Central JR West

1987 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

JR East JR Central JR West

1987 2011

Source: JR East (2012), JR Central (2013a), JR West (2013)

Revenue from Shinkansen has increased largely.

Management of JRs and Shinkansen Lines


Shinkansen Share of Transport Revenue *1

Shinkansen Share of Rolling Stock Kilometers *2

1987 2011 2011

JR East 22% 28% 20%

JR Central 87% 91% 81%

JR West 42% 46% 37%

* 1: Shinkansen revenue / total transport revenue * 2: Shinkansen rolling stock kilometers / total rolling stock kilometers

Source: Calculation based on JR East (2012), JR Central (2013b), JR West (2013)

(Table) Share of Revenue and Rolling Stock Kilometers

Management of JRs and Shinkansen Lines


Shinkansen Share of Transport Revenue *1

Shinkansen Share of Rolling Stock Kilometers *2

1987 2011 2011

JR East 22% 28% 20%

JR Central 87% 91% 81%

JR West 42% 46% 37%

* 1: Shinkansen revenue / total transport revenue * 2: Shinkansen rolling stock kilometers / total rolling stock kilometers

Source: Calculation based on JR East (2012), JR Central (2013b), JR West (2013)

＞

＞

＞

Shinkansen is a better revenue earner

per rolling stock kilometer

(Table) Share of Revenue and Rolling Stock Kilometers

Increasing

Final Comment

1) This report primarily discussed Shinkansen’s effects on operating companies.

2) Shinkansen operation has large impacts on the social and economic development.

Ex.) raising real estate value, easing highway congestion,

stimulating job creation, etc.

3) In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the project, it is necessary to include these social and economic benefits.


References （Selected)

Institute of Transportation Statistics (1995) JNR Annual Railway Statistic, Institute of Transportation Statistics

JR Central (2007) 20 Year History of JR Central JR Central

JR Central (2013a) Annual Report 2013, JR Central

JR East (2012) 2012-2013 Corporate Profile, JR East

JR East (2013) Home page of JR East, JR West (2013) JR West in terms of Data 2013, JR West

Kurosaki, F. (2008) An Analysis of Vertical Separation of Railways, ITS Thesis, University of Leeds

MLIT (2013) Railways in terms of the Figures, Institute for Transport Policy Studies


Fumio KUROSAKI, Ph.D.

Thank you for your attention

shinkansen investment before and after jnr reformshinkansen projects by jnr roundtable on the...

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