Challenging the TraditionChina in the midst of Urbanization and Globalization

SHI, Nan2011-12-08

Moscow Urban Forum

Guilin, Courtesy of Yu Huai

Urbanization Process in China in Last 6 Decades

Northam’s Curve

Source: China National Statistics

Point A Point EAverage

Speed

Point B Point D

GDP/Capita($) R of U (%) GDP/Capita($) R of U(%) GDP/Capita($) R of Ub(%) GDP/Capita($) R of U (%)

Average 696 25.8 24750 74.2 0.136 1480 31.3 11635 68.6

China 696 16.8 24750 65.2 0.136 1480 22.3 11635 59.6

A

E

D

C

B

11600

11800

12000

12200

12400

12600

12800

13000

13200

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010

Arable Land(10,000 ha)

Source: Based on China National Statistics

Number & Size of Cites in China in Last 3 Decades

National &

Provisional DZs:

1568 (9949KM2)

1049 counties with at

least 1 DZs

DZs KM2

Development Zones in China

Source: NDRC

Environmental Factors of Urbanization

Source: China National Statistics

40,0%

25,0%

8,0%4,1%

26,0%

9,7%

45,0%

86,0%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

70,0%

80,0%

90,0%

100,0%

Arable Land Water Oil Gas Copper Aluminium Iron Coal

Resources Per Capita(China/World,%)

GDP and Consumption of Industrial Goods (China/World %, 2010) 8,50%

45,0%

43,0%

52,0%

GDP Coal Steel Cement

Source: Based on China National Statistics

GDP Growth Rate (%)Electricity Consumption

Increase Rate (%)

Energy Consumption Increase Rate (%)

Based on Survey of 287 Cities in 2006

Source: based on China Statistics, etc

World Energy Consumption Per Capita

Source: Based on BP, IMF, 2010

China’s Oil Import (Mtoe)

Source: NEB, 2010

World Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

Source: UNDP

Demands for Urbanization

Migration Tendencies

Challenges for Urbanization

Supporting Conditions

Global economic recession

Economic Restructure

Agricultural Modernization

Bridge the regional gap

Physical Conditions

Land Resources

Water, Energy Condition

Environmental Capacity

Spatial Strategy

Multi-level Diversified Urban

System

Streamlined Regional Guidelines

Enhance global competitiveness

Promote regional cooperation

Promote social coherence

Encourage sustainable economy

Categories

by Function

Development

Optimized Area

Development

Priority Area

Development

Restricted Area

Urbanized

Region

Development

Prohibited Area

Primary Outputs

Industrial

Products and

Services

Secondary Outputs

Agricultural &

Ecological

Products

Ecological

Products, Services

and Industrial

Products

Agricultural

Production

Region

Key

Ecological

Region

Agricultural,

Services &

Industrial Products

Agricultural

Products

Ecological

Goods

Categories

By Land Use

National Territories Demands

13Source: NDRC

National Spatial Strategy for Urbanization

25 National Eco-districts

Source: NDRC

Strategy: Development Restricted Areas

Strategy: Agricultural Production

Source: NDRC

Strategy: Ecological Security

Source: NDRC

Strategy: Development Prohibited Areas

Regional Policy:

Coastal East

Quality instead of speed of urbanization

• Global competitiveness: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze Delta, Pear River Delta agglomeration

• Inclusive growth for migrants

Urban network instead of urban hierarchy

• Dissemination of industries to medium and small cities

• Upgrading and regeneration of big cities

Livable city instead of manufacturing base

• Regional ecological rehabilitation

• Low carbon technology in urban development

• Affordable urban life

Source: Mohurd

Regional Policy:

Central China

Capacity building to enhance the location strength

• Provincial capitals and city clusters

• Regional centers, county seats and rural towns

• Balanced migration

Promote the agricultural productivity for the national food security

• Arable land preservation

• Green industries

Infrastructure improvements

• Regional communications

• Water conservancy

Source: Mohurd

Regional Policy:

Western China

Concentrated Polarization Strategy

• Central city-region

• County seat town, industrial city

Prioritized Strategy

• New energy town

• Frontier city

• Revitalization of mine city etc.

Redistribution of Industries and Rural Population

• Density of settlements

• Ecological conservation

• Resilient citySource: Mohurd

Regional Policy:

North-Eastern Region

Regeneration the Old Industrial Cities

• Upgrading the infrastructures and services

• Economic restructuring

Frontier Cities Growth

• Cross Boarder Communications

• Regional urban system

Small City and Town Development

• Rural centers

• Ecological rehabilitation

• Regional facilitiesSource: Mohurd

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

Yangtze Delta

Pearl River Delta

China’s

World

City

Initiatives

Beijing & Environs

Modern International City by 2020

World City by 2050

Shanghai & Yangtze Delta

International Financial,

Trade, Manufacturing and

Shipping Center

Hong Kong & Pearl Delta

International Financial, Trade

and Manufacturing Center

Conclusions

Spatial strategic planning at national and regional levels has been prove a big success during the “compressed” urbanization in China.

For a country like China with vast territory, huge population and fast economic growth, it is essential to emphasize on the development of major urban centers/agglomerations to build up the national competitiveness in globalization.

Maintaining a rational urban growth rate is important, even more important is to bridge the gaps between different sectors, regions and social groups.

Bottom-up initiatives are of particular importance while the top-down systematic innovation has always played special role in the process of industrialization, urbanization and marketization in China.

• Thanks

Shi Nanshinan@china.com+86-10-5832-3851+86-13801125011

中国城市规划学会Urban Planning Society of Chinawww.planning.org.cnFax: +86-10-5832-3850