session 4: projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration
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Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration. Historical trends in life expectancy, fertility and migration. Life expectancy. Africa: Life expectancy. Africa: Life expectancy. Session 04_Demographic Trends_Presentation.xlsx. Fertility levels. Fertility. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Session 4:Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility
and migration
• Historical trends in life expectancy, fertility and migration
Life expectancy
Africa: Life expectancy
Africa: Life expectancy
The five African countries with the highest and the lowest life expectancy, 2005-2010
Rank Country Life expectancy at birth, bot sexes combined
1 Réunion 77.262 Mayotte 77.143 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 74.044 Tunisia 73.905 Cape Verde 73.54
50 Guinea-Bissau 46.7651 Zimbabwe 46.5952 Sierra Leone 46.2653 Lesotho 46.0254 Central African Republic 45.91
Session 04_Demographic Trends_Presentation.xlsx
Fertility levels
Fertility
NigerTFR naïve estimates
Official estimates National Trend 1992 DHS (retrospective birth histories)1992 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method) 1998 DHS (retrospective birth histories) 1998 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)2000 MICS P/F ratios (indirect method) 2001 RGPH P/F ratios (indirect method) 2006 DHS (retrospective birth histories)2006 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method) 2006 WPP Revision
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1988 census(births < 12 months)
1992 DHS(births < 3 years)
1998 DHS(births < 3 years)
2006 DHS/MICS3(births < 5 years)
2001 census(births < 12 months)
NigerTFR final estimates
Official estimates National Trend 1992 DHS (retrospective birth histories)1992 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method) 1998 DHS (retrospective birth histories) 1998 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)2000 MICS P/F ratios (indirect method) 2001 RGPH P/F ratios (indirect method) 2006 DHS (retrospective birth histories)2006 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method) 2006 WPP Revision
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1988 census(births < 12 months)
1992 DHS(births < 3 years)
1998 DHS(births < 3 years)
2006 DHS/MICS3(births < 5 years)
2001 census(births < 12 months)
Africa: Fertility
International migration
Africa: International Migration
Migration rates
Africa: Migration rates
Winners and losers…
…as South-North migration
South-South migration is as common …
North
72.7
mill
ion
73.6 million
North
SouthSouth
Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2011
55 million
12.6 million
20102010
Momentum
4.2
1.2
2.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
BillionsTotal population of high-fertility countries by variants, 1950 -2100
Medium Instant