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Organized by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for

Expert Group Meeting on the Role of ICT in Socio – Economic Development

Organized by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (UN-ESCWA), 9 – 10 April 2013, Beirut, Lebanon

ICT Indicators in Sudan: Trends and Impacts on Socio – Economic Development, 1975 - 2009

Dr. Mutasim Ahmed Abdelmawla

Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and

Rural Development, Gezira University, Box 20, Medani, Sudan.

abdelmawla2004@uofg.edu.sd , abdelmawla2004@hotmail.com

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Sequence of the Presentation

Introduction

Some ICT Indicators in the Arab Countries

ICT and Socio – Economic Development in Sudan:

Trends, Correlates and Causality Recommendations

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3

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1. Introduction:

- Information and Communications Technology (ICT) refers to

telecommunications, computers and software, storage, and audio-visual

systems that enable users to access, store, transmit, and manipulate

information.

- The importance of ICT stems from the fact that it saves time, reduces effort

exerted in work, reduces the cost of production, enhances productivity, and

increases income earned.

- Some disadvantages of ICT include:

1. Increasing unemployment rates since technology replaces labour.

2. Diffusion of moral crimes if used unwisely.

3. Reduces social interaction and hence might lead to isolation.

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2. Some ICT Indicators in the Arab Countries (ACs):

2.1 Scientific and Technical Journal Articles Published Per Million People: The

Case of Arab Countries (ACs), 1996-2005

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Source:. Based on Data Collected from the Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRIC).

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2.2 Lorenz Curve and Gini Coefficient for Scientific and Technical Journal

Articles Published Per Million People: The Case of ACs, 1996-2005

* Gini Coefficient = 0.578

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2.3 Hirsch (H) Index of the Scientific and Technical Journal Articles

Published: The Case of ACs (1996–2005)

The H-index is suggested by Hirsch (2005) to quantify the scientific

productivity of scientists. The index is calculated based on the distribution of

citations received by a given researcher's publications.

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2.4 Lorenz Curve and Gini Coefficient for H-Index of the Scientific and

Technical Journal Articles Published: The Case of ACs (1996–2005)

Source:. Based on Data Collected from the Statistical, Economic and Social Research

and Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRIC).

* Gini Coefficient = 0.361

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2.5 Internet Users per 100 People in ACs, (2000-2010)

Internet Users per 100 People in ACs, 2000

8Gini Coefficient = 0.708

Internet Users per 100 People in ACs, 2010

Gini Coefficient = 0.388

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- During the period (2000-2010), inequality in internet users in the ACs was

decreasing at (6%) per annum.

2.6 Internet Users per 100 People in ACs: Average Growth Rate, (%), (2000-2010)

Gini Coefficient = 0.201

3. ICT and Socio – Economic Development in Sudan: Trends, Correlates and

Causality:

3.1 Descriptive Statistics for Some ICT Indicators in Sudan (1975-2011)

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Indicator/ Period Average

Standard

Deviation

(SD)

Coefficient

of Variation

(C.V)

Telephone Lines per 100 People, 1975-2011 0.65 0.66 1.02

Mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people, 1996-2011 12.82 18.22 1.42

Internet Users per 100 people, 1997-2010 3.86 5.00 1.30

Research and Development Expenditure (% of GDP), 1999-2005 0.39 0.09 0.23

Source: Own Calculations based on Data Collected from the World Bank: WDI, 2012.

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3.2 Telephone Lines per 100 People in Sudan before and after Liberalization

Policies:

Telephone Lines per 100 People in Sudan, 1975-1991 Telephone Lines per 100 People in Sudan, 1992-2011

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3.3 Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) in Sudan, 1996-2011

* Estimated Trend equation is significant at 0.05 level, estimated trend coefficient

= 0.420, R2 = 0.38 * Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Period Average Growth Rate = 52.2%

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3.4 Research and Development Expenditure in Sudan (% of GDP), 1999-2005

* Expenditure on Research and Development as % of GDP is declining at a rate

of 10% per annum (using growth rate between two end points).

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3.5 Correlation between Social Globalization (Proxy for ICT) and Socio-

Economic Indicators in Sudan, 1975-2009

* Social Globalization in a component of the overall globalization Index

developed by KOF Swiss Economic Institute. Social globalization includes:

(a) Data on personal contact (Telephone Traffic, Transfers as % of GDP,

International Tourism, Foreign Population as % of total population, and

International letters per capita).

(b) Data on Information Flows (Internet Users per 1000 people, Television per

1000 people, and Trade in Newspapers as % of GDP).

(c) Data on Cultural Proximity (Number of McDonald's Restaurants per capita,

Number of IKEA per capita, and Trade in books as % of GDP).

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3.5.1 Person Correlation between Social Globalization and Educational Attainment:

3.5.2 Person Correlation between Social Globalization and Longevity:

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Period Correlation Coefficient P – Value (2 Tailed)

1975-1991 0.335 0.189

1992-2009 0.860 0.000

1975-2009 0.633 0.000

Period Correlation Coefficient P – Value (2 Tailed)

1975-1991 0.408 0.104

1992-2009 0.946 0.000

1975-2009 0.700 0.000

3.5.3 Person Correlation between Social Globalization and Per Capita GDP

(PPP):

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Period Correlation Coefficient P – Value (2 Tailed)

1975-1991 -0.537 0.016

1992-2009 0.937 0.000

1975-2009 0.812 0.000

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3.5.4 Trends in Longevity, Educational Attainment, Social Globalization and

GDP Per Capita (PPP) in Sudan before and after Liberalization Policies

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Trends in in GDP Per Capita (PPP), 1975-1991 Trends in in GDP Per Capita (PPP), 1992-2009

3.6 Causality between Social Globalization and Socio-Economic Indicators in

Sudan, 1975-2009:

3.6.1 Causality between Social Globalization (SG) and Educational Attainment

(EA):

* N: Number of lags

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EA = F (SG)

N F-Ratio P-Value The Result

1 4.95 0.033 Social Globalization causes Educational Attainment

2 0.662 0.524 Social Globalization does not cause Educational Attainment

SG = F (EA)

N F-Ratio P-Value The Result

1 2.67 0.113 Educational Attainment does not cause Social Globalization

2 2.49 0.101 Educational Attainment causes Social Globalization

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3.6.2 Causality between Social Globalization and Longevity (Proxy for Health

Status, H):

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H = F (SG)

N F-Ratio P-Value The Result

1 7.86 0.008 Social Globalization causes Longevity

2 3.15 0.058 Social Globalization causes Longevity

SG = F (H)

N F-Ratio P-Value The Result

1 2.18 0.150 Longevity does not cause Social Globalization

2 3.04 0.064 Longevity causes Social Globalization

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3.6.3 Causality between Social Globalization and Per Capita GDP (y), (PPP):

y = F (SG)

N F-Ratio P-Value The Result

1 0.077 0.783 Social Globalization does not cause GDP per capita

2 0.354 0.705 Social Globalization does not cause GDP per capita

SG = F (y)

N F-Ratio P-Value The Result

1 4.28 0.047 GDP per capita causes Social Globalization

2 2.02 0.151 GDP per capita does not cause Social Globalization

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4. Recommendations:

- Diffusion of ICT in all parts of the country in an equitable way.

- Wise use of ICT (for educational attainment, health, production purposes,

etc).

- Investing in human capital. Increasing public expenditure on research and

development is highly recommended.

- Encouraging the private sector to support scientific research.

- Investment in ICT production rather than focusing only on the use of ICT.

- Improving infrastructure in general and that related to ICT in particular.

- Technological cooperation with ACs and other regions should be encouraged

and supported.

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Thanks for Your Attention