sentiment analysis report for we 110512

7/31/2019 Sentiment Analysis Report for WE 110512

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Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 110512

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Sentiment Analysis Report – W/E May 11, 2012 Sunday, May 13, 2012/ Proshare Research

The Diagnosis

Analysis of the market activity in the week ended May 11th 2012 technically revealed adecline in market optimism and weak bargain drive with significant increase inspeculative activities in the investors’ trading pattern as against an improved market

optimismis and sustained positive sentiments with steady active bargain tendency observed in the previous week’s performance.

In the week just ended, weak bargain and profit taking tendency was observedacross the major sectors as market sentiments turned negative, mainly towards big and medium CAP stocks. However, there is concentration of weak bargain postures is someactive sectors while we observed fresh and sustained moderate sell tendency in some

unattractive sectors.

Nevertheless, the fresh and sustained moderate sell tendency outweighed the weak buyside as most active and liquid stocks appeared ripened for profit taking while theshort termist remained in control of market direction - a major reason for the increase in

speculative propensity and pessimistic activities in the market.

To date, the indecisive posture of the market remains high, alongside a sustained

reduced activity level as sideline attendants appeared to take positions subtly, yetremain a significant feature.

Prescription and the likely expectation in the coming periods: The presence of short term players in the market is likely to increase speculative trading in the comingsessions as the All Share Index (ASI) is still within the overbought range, indicatingpossible extension of price correction to more sectors.

We however envisage a balanced outlook in the coming week as more sustained andrenewed bargain tendency will likely cushion the impact of speculative trading - a

pointer to market price volatility as the bulls and bears will jostle forsupremacy.

Market Diagnostic Score Card

Market Gauges Scores Remarks

ASI -0.19%

The negative posture was significantly impacted byactivities towards big and medium cap stocks acrossthe sectors. Low bargain and moderate sell drive was observed when compared to +2.52% recordedin the previous week.

Market Breadth Negative

This confirms the decrease in optimism and profit taking tendency witnessed in the week which furtherreflects the moderate sell tendency towards bigand medium caps.

Market RSI 72.34

The market RSI shows that market is losing uptrend momentum while moving into waning posture.Market RSI closed lower as against previous week of 84.22. More importantly, this indicates further that

market is still at its top i.e. overbought range. Shortterm correction is not in doubt.

Indecision level (%) 60.71%

Illiquidity of some stocks, low purchasing power, lowrisk appetite, feeble confidence and wary posture of investors reflected here significantly - this isconsidered too high- an unimproved posture against 53.79% observed in the previous week.

Optimism Level (%) 22.86%

There is a decline in the optimism level of the marketagainst the previous outlook of 31.82%. Also, therewas low bargain tendency as the optimistic activity on the bourse closed lower at 39.13%, against totalmarket activity, from 82.21% recorded in the





previous week.

Pessimism Level (%) 16.43%

There is sustained increase in pessimism level inthe market - an unimpressive posture over theprevious outlook of 14.39%.

This shows that 16.43% of market participants in theweek were pessimistic about the market. However,there was a significant increase in the pessimistic

activity level to close higher at 59.53%, against totalmarket activity, from 3.70% recorded in the previousweek.

Proshare Research

Technically, market sentiments during the week favoured liquid and active stocks of Medium and Large CAP categories in the Agriculture, Conglomerates, Consumer

Goods, Services, Industrial Goods, Oil & Gas and Construction/RealEstatesector(s) in that order which further revealed the sectors investors patronised in theweek.

On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against theFinancial Services, Healthcare and ICT sector(s) as sell sentiments was stronger inthe sector(s).

Sector Performance Sector Movers Direction & Trading Psychology

Agriculture 5.18%PRESCO,

OKOMUOIL

Conglomerates 2.44% TRANSCORP

Consumer Goods 2.31%DANGFLOUR,DANGSUGAR

Sustained and Active bargain tendency observed in the sector, indicating attractive

posture of the stock(s) in the sector

Services 0.71%IKEJAHOTEL,

UPL

Renewed bargain sentiments observed inthese sectors due to depressed and attractiveprices that followed the heavy sell tendency

observed in the previous week

Industrial Goods 0.45%WAPCO, CCNN,

DANGCEM

Continued and Waning bargain tendencyobserved, indicating subtle profit taking in thesectors. Short trend reversal is not in doubt in

the coming periods.

Oil & Gas 0.33% MOBIL, MRS

Construction/RealEstate

0.11% JBERGER

Renewed bargain sentiments observed inthese sectors due to depressed and attractiveprices that followed the heavy sell tendency

observed in the previous week

Natural Resources 0.00% Indecisive (no active transactions)

Financial Services -0.36%

IBTC, UBA,SKYEBANK,

GOLDINSURE,ACCESS, FCMB

Mild sell tendency observed in this sector-Speculating trading was observed as profit

taking tendency dominated

Healthcare -1.38%GLAXOSMITH,

MAYBAKER

Waning and Continued sell tendency wasobserved as bears have been in control - a

short term rally in the coming periods is not in

doubt

ICT -1.38% NCR Fresh and Active sell tendency was observed

as the sector(s) moved from flat position

Proshare Research

Stock Trend & DirectionWe conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performancein the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK,





MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors’ sentiments towards the market movers.

THE BIG VOLUME

UBA Plc experienced moderate sell tendency and bearish sentiments in the week to

record -5.5% loss as against 12.9% gain recorded in the previous week - pricecorrection (profit taking) was observed towards the stock due to a 7-month high

recorded recently amid increased market volatility during the week.

The stock experienced distribution and cash outflow throughout the week as revealed by

its money flow index while the growing bearish volume buttressed the negative

sentiments witnessed in the week.

However, the stock remained bullish in both short and mid-long term period as revealed

by its price moving average, buttressed by MACD. This indicates that the stock is still

within the bullish range.

To buttress this further, the stock ended the week with strong bullish sentiments as

revealed by candlestick (bullish engulfing) pattern in the last trading session while the

stock likely to establish new support level at N3.50 as the chance of consolidating into

less volatile trading range has increased with corresponding bullish volume.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: barring any unforeseen market volatility in the

coming week, the emerging sentiments towards the stock appears positive with

moderate bullish tendency as the stock ended the week with an impressive bargain

posture and a corresponding bullish volume. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI

and volume analysis.





FIRST BANK Plc experienced mixed sentiments and weak bargain tendency in the

week to record -2.0% loss as against 7.0% gain recorded in the previous - increased

price volatility was witnessed towards the stock amid weak bargain posture and

increased market volatility.

The stock experienced more distribution in the week as revealed by its volume trend

while money flow index maintained a downtrend throughout the week - indicating

persistent sell tendency in the week. Nevertheless, the stock retained its bullish posture

in both short and mid-long term period as revealed by price moving average, buttressed

by MACD.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appear positive with

moderate reliability as bargain tendency appears weak. Though, the stock retains its

bullish mode as revealed by price moving average and MACD – indicating that the stock

is within the ambit of the bulls. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume

analysis.

THE GAINERS

DANGFLOUR Plc experienced a strong bargain tendency in the week to record 26.8%

gain against 9.00% recorded in the previous week - sustained buying and impressive

positive sentiments was observed towards the stock in the week while the stock

recorded a new high of N6.01 slightly above the N6.00 recorded on 6th Jan 2012.

The stock witnessed active bargain trend, recording maximum gain throughout the week

while the price position above upper Bollinger band buttressed the strong bargain

tendency.





This suggests that the price uptrend has a good chance to continue as the stock

appeared to be in bullish mode as revealed by its price moving average and buttressed

by MACD, though the volume trend revealed more of distribution in the week while

money index flow recorded a zigzag pattern, indicating unstable money flow into the

stock.

However, the stock closed in the overbought range as revealed by RSI buttressed byprice position above upper Bollinger band, suggesting the possibility of short-term pull

back within the bands while price volatility is not in doubt as the bands are wider than

normal.

Technical conclusion on the sentiments: The stock remains bullish in the short term,

indicating the stock is yet to attain full bullish mode while short term pull-back is

possible in near term with moderate reliability due to its overbought posture as revealed

by RSI. Nevertheless, the stock appears positioned to sustain its uptrend, considering its

gain pattern. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

DANGSUGAR Plc experienced moderate bargain and positive sentiments in the week to

record 16.0% gain as against -10.4% loss recorded in the previous week - improved

bargain sentiments observed towards the stock in the week.

The stock maintained a neutral posture in the short term while appearing bullish in the

mid-long term period - buttressed by MACD; indicating that the stock is yet to attain full

bullish mode as revealed by its price moving average.

Also, the volume trend revealed active buying pattern as growing accumulation was

observed throughout the week while the money flow index maintained northward trend,

buttressing the active buying.





Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is no signal of price volatility in the

coming period as the stock has moderate possibility to sustain its uptrend, considering

the growing momentum revealed by RSI. However, profit taking is not in doubt as its

candlestick analysis revealed the presence of bears in the week. The chart below shows

MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

THE LOSERS

MAY & BAKER Plc experienced continued sell tendency and sustained bearish

sentiments to record -13.4% loss as against -13.6% loss recorded in the previous week

- an unrelenting sell tendency which continued to further depress the stock (since

7weeks ago) while the stock recorded an all time low to close at N1.49.

The stock has been in a prolonged bearish mode both in short and long term period as

revealed by price moving average, buttressed by MACD while the stock appeared

depressed and bottomed-out as revealed by RSI. To buttress this further, the money

flow index maintained a prolonged negative posture.

However, there was significant volume growth at the bottom, indicating new interest

towards the stock while there was slight buying tendency in the last session as revealed

by candlestick. This suggests possible trend reversal.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock appears depressed and bottomed-out

while exhibiting traits of a moderate possibility of trend reversal in the near term,

considering the buying tendency as revealed by candlestick in the last session and the

corresponding volume growth. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume

analysis.





SKYE BANK Plc experienced bearish sentiments and consistent sell tendency in the

week to record -16.3% loss as against 2.6% gain recorded in the previous month - an

overwhelmed sell tendency was observed towards the stock as market volatility

increased during the week.

The stock appears to be in a bearish mode in both short and mid-long term period asrevealed by its price moving average while MACD buttressed the bearish posture. Also,

the price position below bottom Bollinger band confirms the overwhelmed sell tendency

as noted above.

To buttress this further, the stock appears depressed as revealed by RSI while the stock

is falling towards its 3months support level at N3.19.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is an overwhelmed sell tendency towards

the stock which may continue, considering the falling momentum while the price position

below bottom Bollinger band buttresses this outlook. However, a trend reversal is not in

doubt as the stock appears depressed and bottomed-out which could encourage abargain drive. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.





Due DiligenceValuation/Investment

RatioDANGFLOUR DANGSUGAR MAYBAKER SKYEBANK UBA FIRSTBANK

Book Value (N'm) 27,690 42,520 3,138 114,948 181,131 363,638

Book Value/Per Share 5.54 3.54 3.20 8.70 5.60 11.14

Price to Book 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

EPS 0.17 0.23 0.26 0.26 0.43 0.75

PE 35.56 16.19 5.70 12.74 8.94 15.04

Profitability

ROE (%) 3.05% 6.59% 8.16% 3.02% 7.61% 6.74%

PAT Margin (%) 1.62% 10.48% 5.29% 12.49% 25.58% 26.57%

PBT Margin (%) 1.81% 15.41% 7.01% 14.69% 29.74% 31.26%

Revenue Growth -3.77% 24.09% 4.27% 12.61% 32.94% 42.49%

Proshare Research

Price Trend

Price Performance DANGFLOUR DANGSUGAR MAYBAKER SKYEBANK UBA FIRSTBANK

52 Weeks High 19.00 15.00 4.49 8.91 7.01 14.00

52 weeks Low 3.85 3.26 1.49 3.17 1.64 7.95

3 Month's (%) 36.90% -14.48% -45.82% 5.68% 110.50% 11.22%

6 Month's (%) 20.20% -24.40% -37.92% -32.19% 34.15% 15.90%

12 Month's (%) -68.37% -72.31% -65.27% -62.40% -45.65% -19.29%

Price Trend

Current Price 6.01 3.78 1.49 3.35 3.81 11.30





15 Days MA 4.78 3.56 1.86 3.86 3.59 10.94

30 Days MA 4.56 3.62 2.01 3.85 3.10 10.36

50 Days MA 4.59 3.70 2.17 3.98 2.96 10.51

200 Days MA 6.64 5.97 2.71 4.52 3.17 10.11

Proshare Research

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements

here represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You areresponsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we makeany claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are foryour guidance purpose only.

Tags: Sentiment Analysis, Market Sentiments, Due Diligence, Technical Analysis, Bollinger band, Fibonacci,Candlestick, Money Flow Index, Proshare Research, The Analyst, Bullish Trend, Bearish Trend, Weak Bargain,Profit Taking, Price Correction, Trend Reversals, Volume Trend, Price Performance, Financial Services,proshareng.com, Nigerian Stock Exchange, Equities Market, Investors, Shareholders, StockRecommendations, UBA, First Bank, Dangote Flour, Dangote Sugar, May & Baker, Skye Bank Plc

sentiment analysis report for we 110512

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