sensitivity analysis of malaysian highway capacity …

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF MALAYSIAN HIGHWAY CAPACITY

MANUAL FOR UNSIGNALISED INTERSECTIONS

IZZIAN BINTI IZZUDDIN

This Thesis Is Propose To

Faculty of Engineering, University Malaysia Sarawak

For Fulfillment of the Requirements for Bestowal

The Degree of Bachelor of Engineering with Honours

(Civil Engineering)

2009

This final year project attached here:

Title : SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF MALAYSIAN

HIGHWAY CAPACITY MANUAL FOR

UNSIGNALISED INTERSECTIONS

Prepared by : IZZIAN BINTI IZZUDDIN

Matric No. : 14172

Is hereby read and approved by:

__________________________ ___________________

Prof. Dr. Wan Hashim Wan Ibrahim Date

Project Supervisor

UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA SARAWAK

BORANG PENGESAHAN STATUS TESIS

JUDUL: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF MALAYSIAN HIGHWAY CAPACITY MANUAL

FOR UNSIGNALISED INTERSECTIONS

SESI PENGAJIAN: 2008-2009

Saya IZZIAN BINTI IZZUDDIN

(HURUF BESAR)

mengaku membenarkan tesis * ini disimpan di Pusat Khidmat Maklumat Akademik,

Universiti Malaysia Sarawak dengan syarat-syarat kegunaan seperti berikut:

1. Tesis adalah hakmilik Universiti Malaysia Sarawak.

2. Pusat Khidmat Maklumat Akademik, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak dibenarkan membuat

salinan untuk tujuan pengajian sahaja.

3. Membuat pendigitan untuk membangunkan Pangkalan Data Kandungan Tempatan.

4. Pusat Khidmat Maklumat Akademik, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak dibenarkan membuat

salinan tesis ini sebagai bahan pertukaran antara institusi pengajian tinggi.

5. ** Sila tandakan ( √ ) di kotak yang berkenaan

SULIT (Mengandungi maklumat yang berdarjah keselamatan atau kepentingan

Malaysia seperti yang termaktub di dalam AKTA RAHSIA RASMI 1972).

TERHAD (Mengandungi maklumat TERHAD yang telah ditentukan oleh

organisasi/badan di mana penyelidikan dijalankan).

√ TIDAK TERHAD

Disahkan oleh

___________________________ ____________________________

(TANDATANGAN PENULIS) (TANDATANGAN PENYELIA)

Alamat Tetap: 474 Kg Wakaf Mek Zainab, PROF. DR. WAN HASHIM WAN IBRAHIM

15300 Kota Bharu, (Nama Penyelia)

Kelantan Darul Naim

Tarikh: 1 JUN 2009 Tarikh: 5 JUN 2009

Catatan: * Tesis dimaksudkan sebagai tesis bagi Ijazah Doktor Falsafah, Sarjana dan

Sarjana Muda.

** Jika tesis ini SULIT atau TERHAD, sila lampirkan surat daripada pihak

berkuasa/organisasi berkenaan dengan menyatakan sekali sebab dan tempoh tesis

ini perlu dikelaskan sebagai SULIT atau TERHAD.

To Mama & Papa

With Lots of Love

iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

In the name of Allah, all Praise is due to Him, the Sustainer of the Heavens and

Earth and all that is within it and may His Blessings be upon the Prophet Muhammad,

peace be upon him. Alhamdulillah, by the grace of Allah and without His permission,

this study may not be completed.

I would like to offer my heartfelt thanks to all that involve in the completion of

this thesis especially to my supervisor, Professor Dr. Wan Hashim Wan Ibrahim for his

guidance and valuable knowledge for this study. I would also like to thank the

technicians of Highway and Traffic Laboratory, Mr. Saiful Edi and Mr. Ar-Rasyidin.

Not forgetting my friends for giving me help and support throughout the study

especially to Siti Zarini, Mohd Rozaidi, Mohd Zuki and Mohammad Khalis Afham.

Thank you so much.

Lastly, no word can ever express my deepest gratitude to my parents. I can only

say a world of thanks to your prayers, patience and untiring support in every way.

Thanks Papa and Mama! My gratitude is also extended to my sisters, Izzlin and Izznie,

for their supports and motivations. Thanks again to all, may Allah grant you with many

good deed. Ameen!

iv

ABSTRACT

Unsignalised intersections play an important role in determining capacity of

road network. Two major parameters used in unsignalised intersection analysis are

critical gap and follow-up time. There are several factors affecting the critical gap

and the follow-up time such as vehicle composition, intersection geometry, major

street traffic volume, minor street delay, minor stream approach grade, and others. In

this research, the critical gap and the follow-up time were analyzed based on vehicle

type, specifically passenger car and motorcycle. Critical gap estimations were based

on the Maximum Likelihood method. These two major factors will be used to

estimate the level of service and capacity of unsignalised intersections. Malaysian

Highway Capacity Manual (MHCM) was produced based on the traffic condition in

West Malaysia. The study is to find out the application of MHCM in Sarawak.

Sensitivity analysis is being carried out by using MHCM 2006.

v

ABSTRAK

Persimpangan keutamaan memainkan peranan penting dalam menentukan

kapasiti jaringan jalan. Dua parameter utama yang digunakan dalam analisis

persimpangan keutamaan adalah sela kritikal dan masa kemajuan. Terdapat beberapa

faktor yang mempengaruhi sela kritikal dan masa kemajuan seperti komposisi

kenderaan, geometri persimpangan, isipadu lalu lintas utama, kelengahan jalan

minor, kecerunan jalan minor dan sebagainya. Dalam kajian ini, sela kritikal dan

masa kemajuan dianalisis berdasarkan kenderaan penumpang dan motorsikal.

Anggaran sela kritikal adalah berdasarkan kaedah Kebarangkalian Maksimum. Dua

faktor utama ini akan digunakan untuk menganggarkan tahap perkhidmatan dan

kapasiti bagi persimpangan keutamaan. Panduan Kapasiti Lebuhraya di Malaysia

(MHCM) diterbitkan berdasarkan keadaan trafik di Semenanjung Malaysia. Kajian

ini adalah untuk mengetahui kebolehan MHCM untuk diaplikasikan di Sarawak.

Analisis kesensitifan dijalankan merujuk kepada MHCM 2006.

vi

TABLE OF CONTENT

Page

Acknowledgement iii

Abstract iv

Abstrak v

Table of Content vi

List of Table ix

List of Figure xi

List of Abbreviation xiii

Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Problem Statement 3

1.3 Objectives of the Study 3

1.4 Scope of the Study 4

1.5 Outline of the Report 6

Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction 7

2.2 Unsignalised Intersection 8

2.3 Critical Gap Estimation 9

2.3.1 Maximum Likelihood Method 10

2.4 Follow-Up Time Estimation 12

vii

2.5 Review of Highway Capacity Manual

2.5.1 Malaysian Highway Capacity Manual 2006 13

2.5.2 US Highway Capacity Manual 2000 14

2.5.3 Indonesian Highway Capacity Manual 1993 14

Chapter 3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction 17

3.2 Vehicle Movement at Unsignalised Intersections 19

3.3 Conflict Area at Unsignalised Intersections 20

3.4 Left Turn Movement from Minor Stream 21

3.5 Site Selection 22

3.5.1 Equipment 23

3.6 Field Observation Method 25

3.7 Gap Acceptance Reduction 26

3.7.1 Maximum Likelihood Method 26

3.8 Estimation of Critical Gap and Follow-Up Time 28

Chapter 4 DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Data Collection and Analysis 30

4.2 Estimation of Critical Gap 39

4.3 Sensitivity Analysis 45

4.3.1 Effect of Critical Gap 45

4.3.1.1 Movement Capacity 47

4.3.2 Effect of Follow-Up Time 48

4.3.2.1 Movement Capacity 51

viii

4.4 Comparison of Critical Gap and Follow-Up Time

Values with Other Studies 53

Chapter 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1 Summary 56

5.1.1 Everrise Unsignalised Intersection 57

5.1.2 J & J Cafeteria Unsignalised Intersection 58

5.2 Conclusion 59

5.3 Recommendation 60

References 62

Appendix A Data Analysis using Maximum Likelihood Method 65

Appendix B Cumulative Distribution Function of Passenger Car’s and

Motorcycle’s Gap Acceptance 82

Appendix C Data Collection 95

Appendix D Sensitivity Analysis 102

Appendix E Vehicle Composition Data 105

ix

LIST OF TABLE

Table Title Page

4.1 Vehicle composition data for AM Peak at Everrise unsignalised 33

intersection (Kuching to Kota Samarahan)


intersection (Kuching to Desa Ilmu)


intersection (Desa Ilmu to Kota Samarahan)


intersection (Desa Ilmu to Kuching)


intersection (Kota Samarahan to Kuching)


intersection (Kota Samarahan to Desa Ilmu)

4.7 Data collection for traffic flow at Everrise unsignalised

intersection (veh/hr) 36

4.8 Data collection for traffic flow at J & J Cafeteria unsignalised

intersection (veh/hr) 36

4.9 Data analysis for critical gap estimation 41

4.10 Parameters for critical gap for Everrise unsignalised

intersection (Sanik, 2006) 46

4.11 Variation of critical gap values 46

x

4.12 Sensitivity analysis of movement capacity with respect to critical

gap value for Everrise unsignalised intersection 47

4.13 Parameters for follow-up time for Everrise unsignalised

intersection (Sanik, 2006) 49

4.14 Variation of follow-up time values 50

4.15 Sensitivity analysis of movement capacity with respect to

follow-up time value for Everrise unsignalised intersection 51

4.16 Comparison of critical gap values using Maximum Likelihood

method with other studies 53

4.17 Comparison of follow-up time values with other studies 54

4.18 Level of service for Everrise and J & J Cafeteria unsignalised

intersections (for left turn movement from minor stream only) 55

5.1 Statistical summary of data observed for Everrise unsignalised

intersection 57

5.2 Statistical summary of data observed for J & J Cafeteria

unsignalised intersection 58

5.3 Suggested critical gap values for Sarawak road condition (sec) 59

5.4 Suggested follow-up time values for Sarawak road

condition (sec) 59

xi

LIST OF FIGURE

Table Title Page

1.1 The location of the study area 4

1.2 Illustration of a typical T-junction in Malaysia (MHCM, 2006) 5

2.1 Capacity calculation flow chart (IHCM, 1993) 16

3.1 Outline of the study 18

3.2 Vehicle movement at unsignalised intersections (Asmi, 2003) 19

3.3 Conflict area at unsignalised intersections (Brilon et al., 1999) 20

3.4 Gap measurement for left turn movement from minor stream

(Asmi, 2003) 21

3.5 Photo of unsignalised intersections at Everrise 22

3.6 Photo of unsignalised intersections at J & J Cafeteria 23

3.7 Photo of video camera 24

3.8 Photo of walking wheel 24

3.9 Photo of stop watch 24

3.10 A typical unsignalised T-junction 25

3.11 Flow chart of Maximum Likelihood method procedure

(Asmi, 2003) 27

3.12 Flow chart for follow-up time determination (Asmi, 2003) 29

4.1 Geometric layout of Everrise unsignalised intersection 31

4.2 Geometric layout of J & J Cafeteria unsignalised intersection 31

4.3 The direction of traffic flow of both unsignalised intersection 32

xii

4.4 Traffic volume (pcu/hr) for AM Peak Hour (7 – 8 am) 37

4.5 Traffic volume (pcu/hr) for Off Peak Hour (3 – 4 pm) 38

4.6 Traffic volume (pcu/hr) for PM Peak Hour (5 – 6 pm) 38

4.7 Cumulative function of passenger car’s gap acceptance by

Maximum Likelihood method 43

4.8 Sensitivity analysis of movement capacity with respect to critical

gap value for Everrise unsignalised intersection 48

4.9 Sensitivity analysis of movement capacity with respect to

follow-up time value for Everrise unsignalised intersection 52

5.1 Illustration of Everrise unsignalised intersection 57

5.2 Illustration of J & J unsignalised intersection 58

xiii

LIST OF ABBREVIATION

HCM - Highway Capacity Manual

LOS - Level of Service

MHCM - Malaysian Highway Capacity Manual

ITS - Intelligent Transport System

ROW - Right of Way

USHCM - United States Highway Capacity Manual

IHCM - Indonesia Highway Capacity Manual

MajRT - Right Turn Movement from Major Stream

MinLT - Left Turn Movement from Minor Stream

MinRT - Right Turn Movement from Minor Stream

TRB - Transportation Research Board

1

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction

Nowadays, Malaysia owns modern highway infrastructures and is among the

best highway in Asia Tenggara. However, according to Polis DiRaja Malaysia Report

for year 1990 - 1995, the accident rates in Malaysia are increasing and need to be

concerned about. Besides, traffic congestion and delay is also increasing due to

additional number of vehicles on the road. Therefore, a systematic road control needs

to be taken by the responsible agencies to reduce traffic congestions.

Unsignalised intersection is a common type of intersection used to control

traffic movement. They play an important role in determining overall capacity of

road networks. A poorly operating unsignalised intersection may affect adjacent

signalized intersection or an Intelligent Transport System. Therefore, it is extremely

important to make sure that the intersection is designed appropriately to prevent under

or over designed of transportation facilities.

2

For an unsignalised intersection, the driver alone must decide when it is safe to

enter the intersection as there is only stop sign to help them, unlike the signalised

intersections. The driver looks for a safe chance or gap in the traffic to enter the flow.

This method is called as gap acceptance. Gaps are measured in the unit of time and

the time difference between the front bumper of one vehicle to the front bumper of the

following vehicle is defined as headway. At unsignalised intersections, there are other

vehicles that will have priority over the driver trying to enter the traffic stream and the

driver must yield to these drivers.

Critical gap and follow-up time are two major parameters for various gap

acceptance capacity models. The values of these two parameters significantly affect

the final capacity result, therefore, it is important to accurately measure these two

parameters based on certain traffic and intersection conditions. Based on the study by

Asmi (2003), the 1997 update to the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) included a

new set of critical gap and follow-up time values calibrated based on the U.S.

highway conditions. The newly recommended set of critical gap and follow-up time

values formed the basis for the procedures for two-way stop-controlled intersections

included in the 1997 update to the HCM and the 2000 HCM. It can be concluded that

these two parameters are the major factors to estimate the level of service (LOS) and

capacity of unsignalised intersections.

3

1.2 Problem Statement

Malaysia had produced its own Highway Capacity Manual in 2006 and it is

known as Malaysian Highway Capacity Manual (MHCM). MHCM study was based

on the traffic condition strictly in West Malaysia. Several locations such as Kuala

Lumpur, Ipoh, Malacca and Penang were taken into consideration to bring out the

best result.

Driver’s behavior is different at a different location. With a low traffic volume

and many one-way routes, Sarawak drivers create their own style of driving. Critical

gap and follow up time may be differing due to this condition. Therefore, this study is

to determine whether the MHCM is applicable to design unsignalised intersections in

Sarawak.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The objectives of this study are as follows:

a) To determine the critical gap by using the Maximum Likelihood method

and follow-up time at unsignalised intersections.

b) To carry out sensitivity analysis for unsignalised intersections using

Malaysian Highway Capacity Manual 2006.

4

1.4 Scope of the Study

The study will be carried out in Desa Ilmu, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak,

Malaysia. Two unsignalised intersections have been selected as the study areas due to

limited time and resources to get the data and they are situated near the Universiti

Malaysia Sarawak. Figure 1.1 shows the layout plan of Desa Ilmu with junctions

observed are marked with red circle.

Figure 1.1: The location of the study area

5

Figure 1.2 shows the illustration of a typical T-junction in Malaysia and the

rank of the movements. Ranks of movement are the discipline of the movements at T-

junction which have the right of way according to the priority. In this study, only one

movement is analysed. The movement is represented by number 9 which is left turn

from minor road (LTMin).

Figure 1.2: Illustration of a typical T-junction in Malaysia (MHCM, 2006)

STOP

7 9

4

5

3

2

Rank Traffic stream

1 2, 3, 2 4, 9

3 7 4 7

6

1.5 Outline of the Report

The first chapter of this study gives a general introduction of the overall study

content and the general background of parameters involved in the analysis of

unsignalised intersection. The second chapter reviews the relevant literatures related

to gap acceptance parameter and follow up time studies. Consequently, Chapter 3

discusses the study methodology carried out for this study. Chapter 4 describes the

analysis of the data and discuss the findings. Finally, Chapter 5 concludes and gives

some recommendation for this study.

7

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

Unsignalised intersection is the common type of intersections used to control

traffic movements. They play an important role in the control of the traffic network

system. According to Wua et al. (2005), the study of unsignalised intersection is

actually the base of other intersections’ study. The interaction between vehicles on

different lanes, and the effects of different traffic policies on the traffic volume are

not only of scientific significance on the development of traffic theory, but also of

guiding importance for establishing suitable traffic policies.

The theory of the operation of unsignalised intersections is fundamental to

many elements of theory used for other intersections. Unsignalised intersections do

play an important part in the control of traffic flow in a network even though their

capacities may be lower than other intersection types. A poorly operating

unsignalised intersection may affect a signalised network or operation of an

Intelligent Transport System (ITS) (MHCM, 2006).

8

In Malaysia, majority of the unsignalised intersections is the T-intersection.

Majority of the 4-way unsignalised intersections are converted to signalised

intersection. T-junction can be described as an intersection where two roads meet

(whether or not at right angles) and one of the road ends. It may include an

intersection where more than two roads meet but only one continues.

In this study, we are focusing on the unsignalised T-junction to obtain the

critical gap and follow-up time for vehicles in Sarawak.

2.2 Unsignalised Intersections

According to Wohl and Martin (1967), unsignalised intersections can be

classified into three categories:

1. Uncontrolled intersections

2. Priority intersections

3. Space sharing intersections

An uncontrolled intersection is a road intersection where no traffic lights or

signs are used to indicate the right-of-way (ROW). At most locations, uncontrolled

intersections are unmarked. Traffic on the terminating road must give way to traffic

on the continuing road. They are found in either residential neighborhoods or in rural

areas.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intersection_(road)

9

At priority intersection, the minor road traffic gives way to that on the main

road and only enters the main road traffic stream during gaps. Unlike the

uncontrolled intersection, priority intersection normally being controlled by Stop or

Give Way signs and markings on the minor road. The advantage of these

intersections is all the vehicles on the main road are not being delayed.

There are four types of priority intersections:

1. Simply priority T-intersections

2. Ghost island T-intersections

3. T-intersections with single dualling

4. T-intersections with dual two-lane rural roads

Space sharing at an intersection is intended to permit fully equal priority and

continuous movement for all intersecting vehicle flows at the roundabout and

weaving areas. The priority at space sharing intersection is not generally assigned to

any specific traffic stream. Each traffic stream crosses at a rather low traffic speed

and it is normally not necessary to stop.

2.3 Critical Gap Estimation

The critical gap, tc is the minimum travel time interval between the vehicles

of the major stream that is necessary for the vehicles in the minor stream to enter the

conflict area (MHCM, 2006).

sensitivity analysis of malaysian highway capacity …

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