seminar 16 urban-scale energy...

Stepping Outside the Door: Using Building Energy Modeling to Understand the Impact

of Energy Choices

Matt Cox, PhD

The GreenlinkGroup

[email protected]

Seminar 16Urban-Scale Energy Modeling

• 1. Identify different models' strengths and weaknesses and suggest best practice procedures for administrators of other campuses interested in developing more sustainable campuses.

Learning Objectives

• 2. Understand the impacts of different thermal zoning methods and the use of floor multipliers on the Simulation Results of Urban Building Energy Models.

• 3. Provide an overview of energy system model advances and integration with urban building energy modeling.

• 4. Describe how a platform for data aggregation can be used to simulate various energy models.

Xiaojing Sun – The Greenlink Group

Joshua New – ORNL, Tunation

Megan O’Neil – City of Atlanta

Chris Castro – City of Orlando

Kimi Narita – NRDC

Shan Arora, Lisa Bianchi-Fossati, and Joe Winslow - Southface

Acknowledgements

Electricity markets:

• Complex and sophisticated

Policy and Regulatory structures:• High variability

• Adequate valuation is a need for all resources

ATHENIA

• In-house AI model for providing policy-relevant information

Evaluating System Impacts

Building stock characterizationLoad profile developmentWeights and Aggregation

Residential and Commercial Demand Profiles

Potentials StudyScenario DesignRe-aggregation

Integrating Efficiency and Renewables

84

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications.

Figure C-9. Electric efficiency supply curve for Florida

Figure C-10. Electric efficiency supply curve for Georgia

$0. 00

$0. 50

$1. 00

$1. 50

$2. 00

$2. 50

$3. 00

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

$/W

Inst

alle

d

DG PV- R DG PV- C UP V

Hourly emissions• 7 pollutants• Accounting for unit and dispatch behavior• Incorporate power purchases

Emissions Impacts and Improvements

Example of dispatch and emissions outputs

Gaussian plume dispersion model• 6 pollutants, stack heightsSocial cost of carbon

Determining Societal Damages

Using the algorithms significantly improves accuracy:Southeast test case • Average building CV(RMSE) reduced by 14x• Dispatch error reduced by 80x

Statistical Validation

Atlanta Better Buildings Challenge• Voluntary; 20% reduction in energy and water by 2020Atlanta 100% Clean Energy Plan• Community to meet all demand with ”clean” energy by 2035

Policies and Programs: 2 Atlanta Applications

Policies and Programs: Atlanta Better Buildings Challenge

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

MW

Ene rg y Sav ings

Avoided Illness,

Relative to BAU

Minor Restricted

Activity Days

Work Loss Days

Upper Respiratory Symptoms

Lower Respiratory Symptoms

Asthma Exacerbation

Number of Avoided

Instances405 68 15 10 15

Policies and Programs: Atlanta 100% Clean Energy Plan

36 37

Pathways to 100% Clean EnergyPathways to 100% Clean Energy

Scenario No.250% Renewable Energy

Cumulative Benefits$15.435 Billion

Cumulative Costs$373 Million

Net Benefits$15.062 Billion

Benefit to Cost Ratio41.4

Majority reliance RECs

with minor reliance on

rooftop and efficiency

Through 2035Local Jobs Created

Local Incomes Increased By

Local GDP Growth

Public Health Savings

Metric Tons CO2 Reduced

In 2035Household Bill Savings

Mo. Bill Savings: Participants

Mo. Bill Savings: Non Participants

Commercial Total Bill Savings



Full Impact17,000

$991 Million

$838 Million

$231 Million

5,297,000

$1.254 Billion

$141

$35

$2.415 Billion

$770

$513

Coca Cola HQ

Per Atl. Citizen per Yr

Delta Global Revenue

Mo. Health Ins. Savings

Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

1.9

$117

13.7%

$2.26

7

57%

14%

28%

19%

Equal To

31% 31%2% 1%14%2%3% 4%6%6%

82%12%1% 2% 3%

Scenario No.1: Business As Usual 0% Increase in Renewable Energy

Cumulative Benefits$0

Cumulative Costs$1,000,000

Net Benefits-$1,000,000


Even reliance on three

upgrade options



Local GDP Growth









Full Impact0

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

0

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

Coca Cola HQ




Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

0.0

$0.00

0.0%

$0.00

0

0%

0%

0%

0%

Equal To

Residential Solar

Commercial Solar

Utility Solar

Hydro Con

Imported REC Purchase

Imported Wind

Single Family Efficiency

Multifamily Efficiency

Commercial Efficiency

GA SREC

Renewable Energy Source Key

Scenario No.1Business-as-Usual - 0%

18% of Atlanta’s electricity

is directly provided by clean

energy sources.

Homes and commercial

buildings undergo energy

renovations.


buildings install solar panels.

Homes powered by community

solar.

Out-of-state wind farms financed by Atlanta.




energy.

45K homes undergo energy

renovations.

6.75K commercial building

energy renovations.

24.2K home solar installs.

715 commercial solar installs.

6.2K homes powered by

community solar.

15 out-of-state wind farms

financed by Atlanta.




energy.


renovations.


energy renovations.


1,430 commercial solar installs.


community solar.



The following three scenarios outline estimated impacts from clean energy investment with no change (0%), a 50% investment in clean energy and a 100% investment.

The Potential Local Clean Energy Upgrades

Efficiency UpgradesModerate potential for impact

Rooftop Solar UpgradesLow Potential for Impact

Purchase of RECsHigh potential for impact

Scenario No.3: 100% Renewable Energy


Cumulative Costs$1.379 Billion



Full reliance RECs with

no reliance on rooftop

and efficiency



Local GDP Growth









Full Impact31.1K

$1.814 Billion

$1.536 Billion

$594 Million

13.449 Million

$2.252 Billion

$234

$63

$4.446 Billion

$2,040

$929

Coca Cola HQ




Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

3.5

$213

25.2%

$5.82

17

95%

26%

74%

34%

Equal To

34%18%9%10%1% 3%15%5%5%

36 37












Local GDP Growth









Full Impact17,000

$991 Million

$838 Million

$231 Million

5,297,000

$1.254 Billion

$141

$35

$2.415 Billion

$770

$513

Coca Cola HQ




Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

1.9

$117

13.7%

$2.26

7

57%

14%

28%

19%

Equal To

31% 31%2% 1%14%2%3% 4%6%6%

82%12%1% 2% 3%







upgrade options



Local GDP Growth









Full Impact0

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

0

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

Coca Cola HQ




Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

0.0

$0.00

0.0%

$0.00

0

0%

0%

0%

0%

Equal To

Residential Solar

Commercial Solar

Utility Solar

Hydro Con


Imported Wind




GA SREC





energy sources.



renovations.




solar.





energy.


renovations.


energy renovations.




community solar.






energy.


renovations.


energy renovations.




community solar.















and efficiency



Local GDP Growth









Full Impact31.1K

$1.814 Billion

$1.536 Billion

$594 Million

13.449 Million

$2.252 Billion

$234

$63

$4.446 Billion

$2,040

$929

Coca Cola HQ




Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

3.5

$213

25.2%

$5.82

17

95%

26%

74%

34%

Equal To

34%18%9%10%1% 3%15%5%5%

36 37












Local GDP Growth









Full Impact17,000

$991 Million

$838 Million

$231 Million

5,297,000

$1.254 Billion

$141

$35

$2.415 Billion

$770

$513

Coca Cola HQ




Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

1.9

$117

13.7%

$2.26

7

57%

14%

28%

19%

Equal To

31% 31%2% 1%14%2%3% 4%6%6%

82%12%1% 2% 3%







upgrade options



Local GDP Growth









Full Impact0

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

0

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

Coca Cola HQ




Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

0.0

$0.00

0.0%

$0.00

0

0%

0%

0%

0%

Equal To

Residential Solar

Commercial Solar

Utility Solar

Hydro Con


Imported Wind




GA SREC





energy sources.



renovations.




solar.





energy.


renovations.


energy renovations.




community solar.






energy.


renovations.


energy renovations.




community solar.















and efficiency



Local GDP Growth









Full Impact31.1K

$1.814 Billion

$1.536 Billion

$594 Million

13.449 Million

$2.252 Billion

$234

$63

$4.446 Billion

$2,040

$929

Coca Cola HQ




Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

3.5

$213

25.2%

$5.82

17

95%

26%

74%

34%

Equal To

34%18%9%10%1% 3%15%5%5%

36 37












Local GDP Growth









Full Impact17,000

$991 Million

$838 Million

$231 Million

5,297,000

$1.254 Billion

$141

$35

$2.415 Billion

$770

$513

Coca Cola HQ




Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

1.9

$117

13.7%

$2.26

7

57%

14%

28%

19%

Equal To

31% 31%2% 1%14%2%3% 4%6%6%

82%12%1% 2% 3%







upgrade options



Local GDP Growth









Full Impact0

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

0

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

Coca Cola HQ




Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

0.0

$0.00

0.0%

$0.00

0

0%

0%

0%

0%

Equal To

Residential Solar

Commercial Solar

Utility Solar

Hydro Con


Imported Wind




GA SREC





energy sources.



renovations.




solar.





energy.


renovations.


energy renovations.




community solar.






energy.


renovations.


energy renovations.




community solar.















and efficiency



Local GDP Growth









Full Impact31.1K

$1.814 Billion

$1.536 Billion

$594 Million

13.449 Million

$2.252 Billion

$234

$63

$4.446 Billion

$2,040

$929

Coca Cola HQ




Mo. w/o Cars

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

Home Electricity

Bill Savings

3.5

$213

25.2%

$5.82

17

95%

26%

74%

34%

Equal To

34%18%9%10%1% 3%15%5%5%

• Benefits beyond the front door are substantial and they scale• Assessment methodologies are constantly improving• You may not be telling your best story• Policymakers can miss out without all the relevant data, disincentivizing

efficiency and renewables

Conclusion

Matt Cox

[email protected]

Questions?

seminar 16 urban-scale energy...

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