self-piloted cars: the future of road transport? frisoni... · self-piloted cars: the future of...
TRANSCRIPT
Self-piloted cars: the future of
road transport?
Research study
Roberta Frisoni
Steer Davies Gleave
26/04/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 1
Structure of the Presentation
1. Scope of the study
2. Automated vehicles classifications
3. Stakeholders and projects
4. Future pathways
5. Potential impacts
6. Recommendations
26/04/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 2
1. Scope of the study
Focus on vehicle automation:
Overview of technology and latest developments
Assessment of future pathways/timescales for penetration of fully automated system on the market
Assessment of potential impacts of automated (and connected) vehicles
Recommendations on actions to be taken to support the achievement of potential benefits of vehicle automation
26/04/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 3
2. Automated vehicles classifications
26/04/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 4
Source: Steer Davies Gleave elaboration on Declaration of Amsterdam 2016
3. Stakeholders involved and projects
26/04/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 5
4. Future pathways: cars
26/04/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 6
Passenger vehicles:
Evolutionary approach: implementation of increasingly automated systems (level 2 to 4) in the short (next 5-10 years) and middle term (10-20 years).
Full automation expected to be feasible on a large scale
in a farther time horizon (more than 20 years) though use restricted to specific circumstances could occur earlier.
4. Future pathways: freight & PT
26/04/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 7
Freight:
Platooning: incremental pathway in short/medium term consisting of the progressive reduction of the responsibilities of the driver/s sitting in the following vehicle/s. Full automation expected in the longer term.
Urban/public passenger transport:
Development of highly automated vehicles whose application is initially limited to specific environments (e.g. airports, campuses, exhibition centres, dedicated routes etc.) and then gradually opens up.
5. Potential impacts: road safety
Road safety:
Potentially major impacts as ITS/automated systems could reduce accidents due to human errors - responsible for about 90% of road accidents…
…but effective safety performance of automated systems has yet to be demonstrated.
In addition to this, the extent to which automated vehicles could contribute to improve safety on EU roads will depend on their rate of penetration of circulating fleet – which is likely to be a relatively long process.
. 26/04/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 8
5. Potential impacts:
congestion and emissions
Road congestion and emissions:
Reduced social cost of congestion – by reducing the opportunity cost of travel time and allowing vehicle users to dedicate time to other activities while travelling….
…but contrasting effects expected on road traffic (and related environmental and GHG emissions). Gains deriving from increased capacity could be offset by increased demand for road transport.
26/04/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 9
5. Potential impacts: others
26/04/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 10
Other investigated impacts:
Transport accessibility and affordability Adaptation of transport infrastructure Impacts on industry & services (automotive, transport, IT,
insurance, etc.) & labour market Land use
Ethics & public acceptance
6. Recommendations
Exploiting most benefits:
Further research to assess safety and environmental implications. Creation of a knowledge sharing system to store outcomes of tests and pilots highly recommended.
Attention to the local/urban dimension. Many benefits
expected to reach highest potential at that level.
Identify pathways for motorways of the future. How more advanced levels of automation would interact with EETS and other C-ITS applications on EU motorways?
.
26/04//2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 11
6. Recommendations
Setting a common framework:
Single roadmap for automated and connected vehicles. Further international cooperation on testing to make
best use of growing expertise and know-how. Step-by-step approach for place into market starting
from approval of lower levels of autmoation that are ready to be deployed in short term.
Amendments to a number of EU directives needed to accompany the process.
.
26/04/2016 Presentation for the Committee on Transport and Tourism 12
