seetharam nov 1309

Global Asia Institute

“Living Cities”: New Insights for Water and Food Security for Rapidly Urbanizing Asia

Seetharam Kallidaikurichi E.Director, Institute of Water PolicyVisiting Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public PolicyDirector, Global Asia Institute

Global Interdependence Center – Global Conference Series 2009Food and Water – Basic Challenges to International StabilityBooth School of Business, SingaporeThursday, 19 November 2009

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing from the Institute of Water Policy and Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

Global Asia InstituteGlobal Asia Institute

About the Institute of Water Policy

To help leaders address To help leaders address “water challenges” in the “water challenges” in the

regionregion

2


Vision / Mission of IWP

Vision• Increase the profile of water security in national policy agenda in

the region• Leading research centre in Asia for effective water policies• Centre of excellence for training leaders and professionals for

water governance and management

Mission• Build and strengthen a water policy research network in the

region • Offer training, water policy advise, and consulting based on a

dynamic and relevant policy research agenda

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Research Focus

• The Medium Term Research Program focuses on areas like:– Structural, macro and long term water policy issues– Emerging global trends affecting water policy– Climate change and adaptation measures in the water sector– Formal policy instruments for water management– Water resources management– Water policy and technology– Water, poverty alleviation and environmental conservation– Legislative, regulatory and institutional frameworks– Infrastructure finance– Conflict and collaborative governance for water– Politics and planning of water policy– Sustainability of water resource systems– Inter-linkages between water, energy, and food policies

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Our Activities

Conferences, Seminars• Singapore International Water Week, 2009• “New” Thinking on Water Governance, 2007• World Cities Summit 2010

IWP Research• Asian Water Indicators and Statistics• Water Governance Index• Dynamic Modeling of Water Policy Systems• Key Lessons Learnt and Good Practices in Water and

Wastewater Management• Case Studies on Good Practices for Urban Water Management

in Asia5


1. What does the world economic development, in reference to GDP in the last 50 years, tell us?

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GDP Per capita (Current US$) 1975-2005

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GDP and Urbanization

Data source: GDP per capita: UN-Data (Germany: Data prior to 1990 refer to the Federal Republic of Germany before unification for the following categories: agricultural production, balance of payments, trade, government finance, defense, monetary indicators, and tourism.) Percentage Urban: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unup 8


Urbanization and GDP increase go together

urban employmentopportunities

+

industry

industry landrequirements

+

rural-urbanmigration

-

GDP +

+

industrialproductivity +

+

-

+

9


Urbanization Trends in Asian Countries

10


2. What else is needed to support GDP growth (and urbanization)?

How has the world performed in the last 25 years with Governance (measured by TI) and Human

Development measured by HDI?

11


Urbanization and GDP depend on Human Development, Good Governance

12


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3. What are the key messages – we will have more cities without choice, in the future.

Depending on what policies we embrace, we will know whether we will have “choked cities” or “living cities”.

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1950 1975

2000 2015

New York 12.3

Tokyo 19.8New York 15.9Shanghai 11.4Mexico City 11.2Sao Paulo 10.0

Population (million)

Source: United Nations 2004

Tokyo Mexico City Bombay Sao Paulo New York Lagos Los Angeles Calcutta Shanghai Buenos Aires Dhaka Karachi Delhi Jakarta Osaka Metro Manila Beijing Rio de JaneiroCairo

19.818.118.117.816.613.413.112.912.912.612.311.811.711.011.010.910.810.610.6

Tokyo Bombay Lagos Dhaka Sao Paulo Karachi Mexico City New York Jakarta Calcutta Delhi Metro Manila Shanghai Los Angeles Buenos Aires Cairo Istanbul Beijing Rio de Janeiro Osaka Tianjin Hyderabad Bangkok

26.426.123.221.120.419.219.217.417.417.316.814.814.614.114.113.812.512.311.911.010.710.510.1

The Emergence and Growth of Megacities

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Massive, unprecedented urbanization in Asia—especially the many small urban centers of less than 500,000 people—will

present new types of water- and wastewater-related challenges that

all countries will have to face.

Pace of Urbanization is Unprecedented

Source: AWDO 2007, ADB 16


Virtuous cycle – Living City Vicious cycle – Choking city

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4. What is the framework for living cities? Living CITIES

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housing price

urban land area(km2)

quality of life

crowding

pollution

+

+

- -

industry


+ available land for housing

-

-

-

+


-

GDP +

+

+


+

-

rural--urbanmigration

urban population

- +

-

+

19


20


The Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009 © 2008 World Economic Forum

IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2008

The Best Countries for Business 2009: Forbes Magazine

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CompetitivenessCC

CompetitivenessCompetitiveness is crucial for cities to be is crucial for cities to be the engine of growth for the nationthe engine of growth for the nationCommitmentCommitment at local political administration at local political administration is crucial to maintain competitivenessis crucial to maintain competitiveness

Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006


Transparency International: 2008 Corruption Perceptions Index

2009 Index of Economic Freedom: The Heritage Foundation, Wall Street Journal

Opacity Index: Milken Institute / Kurtzman Group (2008)

22

Competitiveness



2009 Quality of Life Survey (City Infrastructure) : Mercer HR consulting

The 2008 Human Development Index: UNDP

23

InfrastructureII

InfrastructureInfrastructure of the cities must be of the cities must be efficient efficient and affordable and affordable to achieveto achieve competitiveness competitivenessInfrastructure should be improved and Infrastructure should be improved and operated on commercial operated on commercial sustainabilitysustainability



TTTransport and communicationsTransport and communications should should provide provide mobility, mobility, be safe andbe safe and be reliable be reliable for the cities to function for the cities to function effectivelyeffectively


Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Business Environment Ranking 2008

Doing Business Report 2009, World Bank

24

Transport


IIInformation Information is the key factor for good is the key factor for good governancegovernanceTransparency, low transaction costs through Transparency, low transaction costs through e-governmente-government is a requirement is a requirement


Global Information Technology Report 2008–2009: World Economic Forum-Insead

E-readiness rankings 2008: EIU & IBM Institute for Business Value

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Information


EEEnvironment i.e. when the quality of life, Environment i.e. when the quality of life, open space, and air quality are good, open space, and air quality are good, cities will be sustainablecities will be sustainableCities have life…Cities have life…


Innovation Output Study 20082009 Quality of Life Survey: Mercer HR consulting

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EnvironmentPersonal Safety Index, Mercer HR (2008)


SSShelter i.e. availability and affordability of Shelter i.e. availability and affordability of housing space through appropriate land use housing space through appropriate land use and housing policy and planning is a salient and housing policy and planning is a salient feature of a city with a visionfeature of a city with a vision

The 2008 Global Cities Index: A.T Kearney, Chicago Council of Global Affairs, FP

Cost of Living Index 2008: Mercer HR consulting

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Shelter



LLiviingg Cities

better “better “iinfrastructure”nfrastructure” good “governance”good “governance”

become candidates for become candidates for living in cities through living in cities through leaders who ensureleaders who ensure

Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006 28


5. What are the crucial enabling factors for living cities: Effective Water and Sanitation services and food security.

How have the Asian cities performed with respect to Water, sanitation and food security? What are the linkages between

good governance and water and sanitation?

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Phnom Penh, Jakarta, Vientiane, Johor, Metro Cebu, Singapore Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh,

Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam

Indicator 2007 2001 2005 2005 2005 2007 2003 2005

Water Supply Coverage (%)

90 51 56 100 55 100 89 72.9

Water Availability (hours)

24 22 24 24 20 24 24 24

Non-Revenue Water (%)

6 51 28 37 27 4 ** 34 43

Staff Per 1,000 Connections

4 5.3 8 2.1 8 2.6 @ 3.1 5.3

Operating Ratio #

0.32 0.8 0.93 0.71 0.76 0.85 0.68 0.97

# Annual Operation and Maintenance cost/ Annual Revenue

** "Unaccounted for Water" for Singapore

@ "Staff per 1,000 accounts" for SingaporeSources: ADB and the utilities

Water utilities lose nearly half the water they produce

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Water utilities deliver on average 4 hours per day

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# Annual Operation and Maintenance cost/ Annual Revenue

Source: Asian Development Bank, 2007 Benchmarking and Data Book of Water Utilities in India"na" denotes "not available"

Indicator Ahmedabad Amritsar Bangalore Bhopal Chandigarh Chennai Coimbatore Indore

Water Supply Coverage (%) 74.5 75.7 92.9 83.4 100 89.3 76.1 77.3Water Availability (hours) 2 11 4.5 1.5 12 5 3 0.75Unaccounted for Water (%) na 57 45 na 39 17 41 naStaff Per 1,000 Connections 2.2 4.8 5.2 20.7 8.6 13.3 4 18.7Operating Ratio # 1.43 1.36 0.8 2.82 1.36 0.44 0.82 5.33


Source: Asia Water Watch 2015, Asian Development Bank, UNDP, UNESCAP, WHO

Note: "na” - "not applicable”; . Transparency International’s CPI score indicates the degree of public sector corruption as perceived by business people and country analysts. It ranges between 0 (highly corrupt) and 10 (highly clean)

Immense challenges to deliver Water in Asia

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Food Price Rise

• Over the past 5 years, food prices have been rising, stoking fears of a "food crisis.“

– The World Bank's food price index climbed 57% in the first quarter of 2008 alone.

• About one billion people in Asia spend at least 60% of their income on food. Majority of these are urban dwellers.

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FAO food price indices (Till April 2008)

Source: http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ai465e/ai465e06.htm


6. What are the out-of-the-box solutions? Water and Sanitation; innovation and technology (learn from

other sectors: energy, telecom, food, etc.)

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Water, Sanitation, Food and Housing: Key to Human Development

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“Even with the most comprehensive plans and visions of a sustainable future, nothing can be accomplished without strong political will, good governance, effective implementation and a motivated workforce.”

- Khoo Teng Chye (Chief Executive, PUB)

in Asit K Biswas, Cecilia Tortajada, and Rafael Izquierdo (Eds.), Water Management in 2020 and Beyond, Berlin: Springer, 2009, p.249

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housing price

urban landarea (km2)

public servicesquality of life

crowding

pollution

+

+

+

- -

industry


+ available land for housing

-

-

-

+


-

GDP +

+

+


+

-

rural--urbanmigration

urban population

- +

-

budget allocated forimproving public

infrastructure

+

+

+

37


Water, Precious Water

Even a 2% drop in the body can trigger Dehydration

90%

Blood95% 95%

70%

82%

38


Water is Food, Need, and Good

“It is impossible to continue with the traditional ideaof providing required drinking water to every onefree of cost or at highly subsidized rates.”

• Drinking water is Drinking water is FoodFood(1–2 liters per capita per day)(1–2 liters per capita per day)

• Water for essential use Water for essential use is a is a Need Need (10–20 lpcd; (10–20 lpcd; own source, rain water harvesting)own source, rain water harvesting)

• Water for other uses Water for other uses is a is a Good Good (24-hour supply; (24-hour supply; full cost recovery, water conservation)full cost recovery, water conservation)

Deliver drinking water immediately to all

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Thinking “out-of-the-box” on Water & SanitationLearn from the telecom and energy sectorsLearn from the telecom and energy sectors

• APANA is a new framework to serve a potential $1 Trillion market, for a market size of $100 million persons per year, until 2015.

• Technology driven, and Scalable Solutions• Replace the 200-year old technology for

toilets• Give new solutions to approx 1 billion

current customers• Innovation for sanitation like “handphone”

for “telecommunication• Car, fashion designers• Vacuum cleaner solution for sanitation• Building design innovation (self-contained

apartments, communities)

APANA 1012

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Water, Energy, and Food policies cannot be delinked

Water, Energy, and Food policies cannot be made without a deeper understanding of the central role of water with respect to everyday needs. Approaching any of the policies in isolation will result in failed policies in a globalized world.

41


Nexus between Water and Food

• Agriculture consumes 85 percent of fresh water withdrawals in developing countries

• Growing population in cities and growing affluence has increased the demand for diets containing more animal protein

• Roughly 1,000-2,000 litres of water is required to produce a KG of wheat, and 10,000-13,000 litres of water to produce a KG of beef

• The present average food ingest of 2,800 kcal/person/day may require roughly 1,000 m3 per year water to be produced.

• Thus, with a world population of 6 billion, water needed to produce the necessary food is 6,000 km3 (excluding any conveyance losses associated with irrigation systems).

42Source: FAO, World Development Report 2008


7. Who can ensure that we embrace “living cities” framework – Passionate leadership is essential

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New Paradigm for Living Cities“Proper Knowledge + Positive Action = Good Leadership”

• Executive education for nurturing leaders for the future

• Proactive role of media in shaping public policy on water

• Simple indicators for a “pulse check” on water governance

““People”People”

ProceduresProcedures

PolicyPolicy

““Passion”Passion”

“Nations that prioritized urban water policies have successfully improved quality of life in terms of HDI.”

44


8. What is the big picture on water management – new look at the water cycle; dynamic modeling of public

policy

45


Understanding the water cycle: “no beginning” – “no end”

46


9. What is the vision of good water governance – Man is part of Nature; Nurture Nature.

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Nurture Nature Nurture Nature

Air

Space

Fire

Water

EarthEarth provides all organic and inorganic nutrients (minerals) and materials.

75% of creation comprises water. Water is home to many beings. Water recycles itself eternally.

Solar energy, coal and petroleum products sustain the modern economy.

Modern industry, medicine, and households use a variety of gases. Air travel is the hallmark of 21st century.

Satellite, internet, mobile phone, and other communication technology are essential in daily life.

landslide, landslide, earthquakes earthquakes

floodsfloodstyphoons typhoons

volcanic eruptionvolcanic eruptionextreme extreme temperatures temperatures

radiation hazardsradiation hazardsharmful gases, harmful gases, infective virusinfective virus

Nature can Give; Nature can Destroy!Nature can Give; Nature can Destroy!48


Conclusion

“Governance is more about governing our own behavior in Nature.”

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About the Global Asia Institute

Transcending boundaries of Transcending boundaries of geography and knowledgegeography and knowledge

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Introduction

• It will address deep issues crucial to the future of Asia, and at a level of depth and breadth not readily achievable if studied through traditional academic disciplines or policy institutes.

• GAI will provide an innovative new platform to bring together existing expertise from NUS, as well as other universities within and outside Asia, particularly scholars with expertise in China and India, to work together across disciplines to address the critical issues within Asia.

• It will be integrative as well as holistic, combining the hard-side (engineering solutions, quantitative methodologies and systematic scientific analysis), with the soft-side (human and social issues) of the knowledge domains.

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Vision and Mission

Vision• Integrative research to solve challenges of the Asian century

Mission• Integrative and multi-disciplinary, cluster of 2-3 PIs• High impact research• India / china focus• Wikipedia approach / regular workshop• Iterative and cumulative• Social sciences first, followed by wet-bench

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© All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing from the Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

For further enquiries, please contact:

Director, Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public PolicyDirector, Global Asia InstituteNational University of Singapore, 469C Bukit Timah Road, Singapore 259772

Telephone: (65) 6516 2083, Fax: (65) 6468 4186Email: [email protected]

[email protected]

seetharam nov 1309

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