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The Security Dilemma RevisitedAuthor(s): Charles L. GlaserReviewed work(s):Source: World Politics, Vol. 50, No. 1, Fiftieth Anniversary Special Issue (Oct., 1997), pp. 171-201Published by: Cambridge University PressStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25054031 .Accessed: 25/11/2012 21:51
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THE SECURITY DILEMMA
REVISITED
By CHARLES L. GLASER*
ROBERT Jerviss article "Cooperation under the Security
Dilemma" is among the most important works in international re
lations of the past few decades. In it, Jervis develops two essential ar
guments. First, he explains that the security dilemma is the key to
understanding how in an anarchic international system states with fun
damentally compatible goals still end up in competition and at war. The
security dilemma exists when "many of the means by which a state tries
to increase its security decrease the security of others."1 It provides the
rational foundation for what Jervis termed the "spiral model," which
describes how the interaction between states that are seeking only se
curity can fuel competition and strain political relations.2 Second, Jervis
explains that the magnitude and nature of the security dilemma depend on two variables: the offense-defense balance and offense-defense dif
ferentiation.3 As a result, the security dilemma can vary across space and time. Although states exist in
a condition of international anarchy that does not vary, there can be significant variation in the attractive
ness of cooperative or competitive means, the prospects for achieving a
high level of security, and the probability of war.
* For comments on earlier drafts I would like to thank Lynn Eden, Colin Elman, Matt Evangelista,
Jim Fearon, Lloyd Gruber, Chaim Kaufmann, Andy Kydd, Joseph Lepgold, Jim Morrow, and Steve
Walt. 1 Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma," World Politics 30 (January 1978), 169.
For earlier discussions of the security dilemma, see John H. Herz, "Idealist Internationalism and the
Security Dilemma," World Politics 2 (January 1950), which identifies the basic concept, but does not
develop it extensively; and Herbert Butterfield, History and Human Relations (London: Collins, 1951). 2 Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton: Princeton University
Press, 1976), chap. 3, esp. 62-76; these pages provide a more thorough discussion of the basic workings
of the security dilemma than does "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma." For an early discussion
of this type of interaction, see J. David Singer, "Threat-Perception and the Armament-Tension
Dilemma," Journal of 'Conflict Resolution 2 (March 1958); for a recent discussion, see Charles L. Glaser,
"Political Consequences of Military Strategy: Expanding and Refining the Spiral and Deterrence
Models," World Politics 44 (July 1992). 3 Many similar arguments are developed by George Quester, Offense and Defense in the International
System (New York: Wiley, 1977). See also Marion William Boggs, Attempts to Define and Limit 'Ag
gressive" Armament and Strategy (Columbia: University of Missouri, 1941); and Marlies Ter Borg, "Re
ducing Offensive Capabilities: The Attempt of 1932," Journal of Peace Research 29, no. 2 (1992).
World Politics 50 (October 1997), 171-201
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172 WORLD POLITICS
These arguments laid the foundation for a major debate within real
ism, which is widely considered the dominant paradigm in international relations. As Jervis s analysis rests on the same basic assumptions?anar
chy and fundamental compatibility of goals?that underlie structural re
alism, it should be viewed as part of this overall tradition. The broad
implications of his argument are dramatically different from the stan
dard structural-realist analysis, however, since the latter does not focus
on the security dilemma and consequently envisions a consistently
more competitive and dangerous world.4 Although the debate over
these formulations of structural realism has evolved since publication of
Jervis's article, the matter is yet to be resolved.5
We can also appreciate the importance and impact of security dilemma and offense-defense arguments by recognizing that scholars
have now employed these arguments effectively to address many of the
most important questions of international relations theory and security
policy, including the effectiveness of deterrence and reassurance,6 sources of moderation in Soviet policy,7 the severity of relative gains
constraints,8 alliance behavior,9 military doctrine,10 imperial expan
4 The major statement of the standard structural-realist analysis is Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of In
ternational Politics (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1979); also important are idem, Man, the State
and War (New York: Columbia University Press, 1959), esp. chaps. 6,7; and idem, "Reflections on The
ory of International Politics: A Response to My Critics," in Robert O. Keohane, ed., Neorealism and Its
Critics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986). 5 See Charles L. Glaser, "Realists as Optimists: Cooperation as Self-Help," International Security 19
(Winter 1994-95); and Stephen Van Evera, Causes of War, vol. 1, The Structure of Power and the Roots
of War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, forthcoming). 6 Although not framed in terms of the security dilemma, see, for example, Richard Ned Lebow and
Janice Gross Stein, "Beyond Deterrence," Journal of SocialIssues 43 (Winter 1987). See also Stein, "De terrence and Reassurance," in Philip E. Tetlock et al., Behavior, Society and Nuclear War, vol. 2 (New
York: Oxford University Press, 1991), esp. 17; this essay gives somewhat greater prominence to the se
curity dilemma. On the more general question of resolving political rivalries, see Sean Lynn-Jones,
"Rivalry and Rapprochement: Accommodation between Adversaries in International Politics" (Ph.D.
diss., Harvard University, in process). 7 Matthew Evangelista, "Sources of Moderation in Soviet Security Policy," in Tedock et al. (fn. 6),
esp. 290-96; and idem, "Cooperation Theory and Disarmament Negotiations in the 1950s," World Pol
itics 42 (July 1990). On the Soviet use of concessions, see Deborah Welch Larson, "Crisis Prevention
and the Austria State Treaty," International Organization 41 (Winter 1987). 8 Robert Powell, "Absolute and Relative Gains in International Relations Theory," American Politi
cal Science Review 85 (December 1991); Powell casts the argument in terms of the costs of war, not in
terms of the offense-defense balance. And see Glaser (fn. 5), 79. 9 On balancing versus bandwagoning, see Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, N.Y.:
Cornell University Press, 1987), esp. 24-25,165-67. On the tightness of alliances, see Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Mul
tipolarity," International Organization 44 (Spring 1990); and Thomas J. Christensen, "Perceptions and
Allies in Europe, 1865-1940," International Organization 51 (Winter 1997); disagreeing is James D.
Morrow, "Arms versus Allies: Trade-offs in the Search for Security," International Organization 47
(Spring 1993). On the alliance choices of small powers, see Karl Mueller, "Patterns of Alliance: Align ment Balancing and Stability in Eastern Europe," Security Studies 5 (Autumn 1995). 10
Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the World
Wars (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984), esp. 67, 74, 221-22, 236-39; Jack Snyder, The
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SECURITY DILEMMA REVISITED 173
sion,11 revolution and war,12 ethnic conflict,13 conventional arms con
trol,14 U.S. nuclear policy and arms control,15 nuclear proliferation,16
the escalatory dangers of conventional war,17 U.S. grand strategy,18 and
the prospects for peace in Europe and policies for preserving it.19 Lim
itations of space unfortunately preclude an examination here of the
ways in which security dilemma and offense-defense arguments are
used in this literature. The first sections of this article recapitulate Jervis's basic arguments,
discuss work that has added to these arguments, and offer clarifications
and further extensions. Although the security dilemma is referred to
quite frequendy, relatively little effort has been devoted to examining its core logic, some of which was left incomplete by Jervis himself. The
most important gaps concern whether and how the security dilemma
operates between rational actors. Consequendy, I explore three ways in
which a state's efforts to increase its security when facing a security dilemma can, without states suffering misperceptions, generate unde
sirable outcomes.
Ideology of the Offensive (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984); for disagreements, see Scott D.
Sagan, "1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense and Instability," International Security 11 (Fall 1986); the corre
spondence between Sagan and Snyder, International Security 11 (Winter 1986-87); and Elizabeth Kier, "Culture and Military Doctrine: France between the Wars," International Security 19 (Spring 1995). 11
Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell
University Press, 1991), 21-26. 12 Stephen M. Walt, Revolutions and War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1996), esp. 33-45,
334-38. 13
Barry R. Posen, "The Security Dilemma in Ethnic Conflict," Survival 35 (Spring 1993); and
Chaim Kaufmann, "Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars," International Security 20
(Spring 1996). 14 Jack Snyder, "Limiting Offensive Conventional Forces: Soviet Proposals and Western Options,"
International Security 12 (Spring 1988), esp. 67-71; see also Stephen Duane Biddle, "The Determi nants of Offensiveness and Defensiveness in Conventional Land Warfare" (Ph.D. diss., Harvard Uni
versity, 1992). Following the basic approach of offense-defense theory, although apparendy not direcdy influenced by it, is the nonprovocative defense literature. See, for example, the special issue of the Bul
letin of the Atomic Scientists A4 (September 1988); and Anders Boserup and Robert Neild, The Founda
tions of Defensive Defense (New York: St. Martins, 1990). 15 Charles L. Glaser, Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Policy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1990). 16 Shai Feldman, Israeli Nuclear Deterrence: A Strategy for the 1980s (New York: Columbia University
Press, 1982). 17
Barry R. Posen, "Inadvertent Nuclear War? Escalation and NATO's Northern Flank," International
Security 7 (Fall 1982); and idem, Inadvertent Escalation: Conventional War and Nuclear Risks (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1992). Offering a different explanation is Jeffrey W. Legro, "Military Culture and Inadvertent Escalation in World War II," International Security 18 (Spring 1994). 18
Stephen M. Walt, "The Case for Finite Containment: Analyzing U.S. Grand Strategy," Interna
tional Security 14 (Summer 1989), esp. 22-30. 19 Stephen Van Evera, "Primed for Peace: Europe after the Cold War," International Security 15
(Winter 1990-91), esp. 11-17; Ted Hopf, "Managing Soviet Disintegration: A Demand for Behav
ioral Regimes," International Security 17 (Summer 1992); Charles A. Kupchan and Clifford A.
Kupchan, "Concerts, Collective Security, and the Future of Europe," International Security 16 (Summer
1991), esp. 133-37; and Charles L. Glaser, "Why NATO Is Still Best: Future Security Structures for
Europe," International Security 18 (Summer 1993), esp. 26-33, 38-47.
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174 WORLD POLITICS
The following section argues that two additional variables?the ex
tent of the adversary's greed (that is, motives beyond security) and of the adversary's unit-level knowledge of the state
s motives?influence
the magnitude of the security dilemma. Thus, whether a theory posits only security seekers or instead posits some greedy states is a pivotal choice. In the latter case, the role of the security dilemma is diminished and competitive policies are more likely to avoid conflict. Whether
states can rely on unit-level information about others' motives can have
equally important implications, enabling a state to be secure when it
would otherwise be insecure, which in some cases supports more coop erative policies and in other cases
more competitive ones. By consider
ing these variables, one also integrates the security dilemma into
broader debates over international relations theory and security policy. These variables, for example, establish the divide between the spiral model and what Jervis termed the "deterrence model," which applies to
secure greedy states and therefore rejects the security dilemma.
The final section addresses basic criticisms of the security dilemma
and offense-defense theory, including (1) the empirical claim that
greedy states, not the security dilemma, are the main source of interna
tional conflict; (2) the security dilemma does not really exist, because its internal logic is flawed, or because its constraints are always over
whelmed by other considerations, or because states construct the secu
rity dilemma and therefore can choose not to; and (3) offense-defense
theory is flawed. I argue that the greedy-states criticism poses a serious
challenge but that the others are based on incomplete or flawed analysis.
The Security Dilemma: How Does It Lead to Undesirable Outcomes?
Jervis defines the security dilemma as a situation in which "the means
by which a state tries to increase its security decrease the security of
others." This definition by itself does not make clear why the security dUemma is a problem, however: if states value their own security but
not the security of others, why would an action that makes one's adver
sary less secure necessarily be bad? The most obvious reason is that the
adversary is likely to react to having its security reduced. And by the same logic the adversary's reaction will in turn reduce the state's secu
rity. But why does not this action-reaction process simply leave the
state's security unchanged, since the adversary's reaction could j'ust off
set the state's action?
This section identifies three distinct ways in which making one's ad
versary less secure can be self-defeating, leaving the state worse off than
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SECURITY DILEMMA REVISITED 175
before its initial action: (1) by setting in motion a process that reduces the state's own military capability, that is, its ability to perform military
missions; (2) by increasing the value the adversary places on
expansion, which makes it harder to deter; and (3) by simply wasting money. Al
though Jervis touches on each of these possibilities, he does not fully explain how the first two could happen without misperceptions. Thus,
although he stresses that the "heart of the security dilemma" stems from
"the anarchic context of international relations," Jervis leaves some key
arguments underdeveloped.20 The following discussion is intended to
close some of these gaps. This section ends with a brief discussion of
why states sometimes cannot avoid these undesirable outcomes.
By further developing these arguments I do not mean to imply that
misperceptions are
unimportant. Whether or not states suffer from sig
nificant misperceptions, we need to analyze how a rational state would
act if we are to determine how much of a state's insecurity is really the
product of the conditions it faces and how much worse relations be
come when misperceptions do occur.
Reducing the State's Military Capability
The idea that arming could reduce capabilities might seem self-contra
dictory, but the issue is one of terminology. I use "military capability" to refer specifically to the state's ability to perform military missions, not
to the size of its forces or its total military assets.21 Thus, an action-re
action process will leave the state with more military assets, but it may nevertheless reduce its military capability vis-?-vis its adversary.
Because of the security dilemma, when the state arms, it makes its
adversary less secure by reducing the adversary's ability to defend itself.
The adversary then buys additional arms in order to restore its military
capability.22 At first glance, it might appear that the net effect of this action-reaction process would be to leave both countries' military capa bilities unchanged, since each country's additional forces would simply offset the other's.23
20 Jervis (fn. 2), 76.
21 On the advantages of this usage of "capability," see Glenn H. Snyder, "Process Variables in Neo
realist Theory," Security Studies 5 (Spring 1996), 180-83. 22 For the sake of simplicity, I will focus on the decision to buy arms. However, the logic of the se
curity dilemma is more general, including the decision to take territory and to acquire allies to increase
security. Regarding territory, an action-reaction process could be expansion into part of a buffer zone
that leads one's adversary to expand into the remainder of the zone.
23 Jervis (fn. 2), 64, says that such an action-reaction process results in reduced security because
"when states seek the ability to defend themselves, they get too much and too little ... too little be
cause others, being menaced, will increase their own arms and so reduce the first state s security." How
ever, this explains only why the state's security is reduced relative to the situation following its initial
buildup, but not why it should be reduced relative to the prior military status quo.
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176 WORLD POLITICS
In fact, however, when the action-reaction process shifts the offense
defense balance, the result is instead a change?a decrease or an in
crease?in military capabilities. If the state deploys a new weapons
system that favors offensive missions and if its adversary responds by
deploying this system, the country's ability to defend itself will be re
duced, leaving it less secure than before this round of arming. MIRVed
missiles are usually considered to be this type of offensive innovation,
reducing the ease with which the United States and the Soviet Union could meet their requirements for deterrence. If, however, the state de
ploys an innovation that favors defensive missions and its adversary
matches it, then the net result would be an increase in the state's capa
bility to defend itself and an increase in its security. The precision guided munitions (PGMs) deployed on the Central Front during the cold war appear to have been such an innovation.24
The ability to perform offensive and defensive missions can also vary
with force size.25 Thus, action-reaction processes that result in larger forces (as distinguished from different types of forces) can increase or decrease the state's military capability for defense. For example, equal increases in the size of conventional ground forces can result in an in
crease in a state's ability to defend, by enabling it to increase the density of forces deployed along the front. Similarly, equal increases in the size of nuclear forces can increase both countries' retaliatory capabilities,
thereby enhancing their deterrent capabilities. In such cases, an action
reaction process increases security.
Appreciation of the possibility that arms competition can reduce
both countries' military capabilities precedes Jervis's work on the secu
rity dilemma. In fact, the complementary observation that adversaries
can have a mutual interest in reciprocating arms restraint is one of the
core insights of modern arms control theory, which was developed in the
late 1950s and the early 1960s.26 Setting this insight within the broader framework of the security dilemma, however, highlights an important issue that arms control theory tends to gloss over?the compatibility of
the intrinsic goals of the states involved. The security dilemma makes
explicit the possibility that both states in the competition are interested
only in security, and it deepens our understanding of how this compe
24 John J. Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1983),
chap. 7. 25 This possibility is discussed in Chaim Kaufmann and Charles Glaser, "What Is the Offense-De
fense Balance and Can We Measure It?" International Security (forthcoming). 26 See, for example, Thomas C. Schelling and Morton H. Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control(New
York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1961), esp. 1-2.
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SECURITY DILEMMA REVISITED 177
tition can arise. In addition, Jervis lays the groundwork for more recent
work by framing the problem of cooperation in terms of Prisoners' Dilemma and Stag Hunt game-theory matrices and exploring how the
prospects for cooperation vary with changes in the relative size of coun
tries' payoffs (pp. 170-83).27 In more recent years, cooperation theorists
have used game theory to establish a more rigorous foundation for the core findings of arms control theory; they frequendy use the repeated Prisoners' Dilemma to model arms competition.28
Making One's Adversary Less Secure, Which Increases the Value It Places on Expansion
the danger of the adversary's insecurity
Reducing an adversary's security can reduce the state's own security in a
second way?by increasing the value the adversary places on
expansion,
thereby making it harder to deter. Making an adversary more insecure
will often increase its interest in expansion, since expansion can often
increase security. For example, a more insecure adversary will find
ex
pansion more desirable when it can provide
more secure borders, strate
gic depth, or control of resources that are valuable for building military capabilities.29
Consequendy, even when arming increases a state's military capabil
ity, the net result could be a reduction in its security. On the one hand,
the state will enjoy the enhanced deterrent and defense capabilities pro vided by its improved military capability. On the other hand, because the adversary is now harder to deter, it may not be deterred by these
en
hanced capabilities, even if it would previously have been deterred by less effective military capabilities.
Thus, states that can achieve military advantages should not always seek them. There is no general
answer to whether sustainable military
27 For earlier use of game theory to explore the different motives that can lead to arms competition
and cooperation, see Thomas C. Schelling, "A Framework for the Evaluation of Arms-Control Pro
posals," Daedulus 104 (Summer 1975). While remaining positive about the potential contribution of
game-theoretic formulations, Jervis explores their shortcomings in "Realism, Game Theory, and Co
operation," World Politics 40 (April 1988). 28 Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation (New York: Basic Books, 1984). For
a focus on
questions of arming, see George W. Downs, David M. Rocke, and Randolph M. Siverson, "Arms
Races and Cooperation," in Kenneth A. Oye, ed., Cooperation under Anarchy (Princeton: Princeton
University Press, 1986). 29 Jervis (fh. 1), 168-69. Although Jervis identifies this phenomenon
as being separate from the se
curity dilemma, I describe it as an integral part of the security dilemma. On the resource value of ter
ritory, see Peter Liberman, "The Spoils of Conquest," International Security 18 (Fall 1993); and idem, Does Conquest Pay? The Exploitation of Occupied Industrial Societies (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996).
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178 WORLD POLITICS
advantages that leave one's adversary less secure will increase or de
crease the state's security, but policy analyses that grapple with this
trade-off find that sometimes cooperation or restraint is preferable
to
more competitive policies. In the current debate over NATO expansion,
for example, opponents argue that even though expansion into Central
Europe would increase NATO's military capability, it would also increase
Russian insecurity and therefore make Russian invasion of its neighbors more likely.30
ACTIONS THAT REDUCE AN ADVERSARY'S SECURITY: SIGNALING OF MOTIVES
A state's military buildup can make its adversary less secure in two
ways. First, and more straightforward, the state's buildup can reduce
the adversary's ability to defend itself. Even if the adversary matches the state's initial buildup, the net result could be
a reduction in its mil
itary capability, as described above. It is also possible that the adversary
will end up less capable of defense because it is unable to match or counter the state's buildup.
Second, a state's military buildup can change the adversary's beliefs
about the state's motives, convincing the adversary that the state is in
herendy more dangerous than it had previously believed. More specif
ically, the state's buildup could increase the adversary's assessment of
the extent to which it is motivated by the desire to expand for reasons
other than security,31 which I will term greed.32 This type of action
reaction process is the focus of the spiral model, in which countries that
are seeking only security conclude that their adversary's motives are
more malign, that is, greedier, than previously believed.33 Although
misperceptions can make spirals more intense, Jervis, as already noted,
stresses that both the security dilemma and the spiral model have a ra
tional foundation.34
30 See, for example, Michael E. Brown, "The Flawed Logic of
NATO Expansion," Survival 37
(Spring 1995). For a security dilemma-based argument against nuclear superiority, see Glaser (fh. 15),
chap. 5. 31 The adversary could also become less secure if it concludes that the state places a higher value on
security or demands a higher level of security, both of which could make the state harder to deter. For
simplicity, I focus on the adversary's assessment of the state's greed. 321 use the term "greedy" because states can be motivated to expand for two fundamentally different
types of reasons?security and greed?which are blurred by the more common terms "expansionist" and
"aggressive." Four types of states can be defined in terms of greed and security seeking; see Glaser (fh. 2),
501-3. In referring to states as greedy, I do not mean to imply that they do not also seek security.
33 Jervis (fh. 2), chap. 3, esp. 62-76. See also Glenn Snyder, "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Pol
itics," World Politics 36 (July 1984), 468-70; Snyder argues that firm alliance policies can generate re
actions that are comparable to a spiral generated by an arms buildup. 34 In addition to the passage cited in fn. 20, see, for example, Jervis (fn. 2), 62.
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SECURITY DILEMMA REVISITED 179
Nonetheless, the possibility of a rational spiral presents something of a
puzzle. How could the arms
policy of a rational state that seeks only
security convince its adversary, based on logically sound inferences, that
the state is more dangerous than was
previously believed? The answer is
not obvious because, for the following reasons, the adversary will un
derstand that an arms buUdup may be motivated by security, not greed.
Recognizing that the state does not know its motives, the adversary will
appreciate the state's desire for adequate defense capabilities, which
could require more or
improved armed forces. In addition, appreciating the security dilemma, the adversary will understand that forces that the
state requires for increased security could reduce its own security. A
rational adversary will therefore have reasons to expect a pure secu
rity seeker to engage in a threatening arms buildup and consequently
will not automatically conclude that such a buildup reflects greedy motives.
The question then is, when does a state's military buildup signal
greedy motives? A common, although incorrect, claim is that structural
theories do not allow states to know anything about the motives of oth
ers, since they are unobservable. But this claim overlooks the possibility that certain actions can communicate valuable information because
they are not equally likely to be taken by a greedy state and
a pure se
curity seeker. Therefore, for example, when a state launches a military
buildup that is more likely to be taken by a greedy state than by a pure security seeker, an adversary that is making sound inferences will up date its assessment of the state's motives, concluding that the state is
more likely than previously believed to be greedy.35 Two types of military buildups could help with this kind of differen
tiation. In the first type, different types of states prefer different size
forces: a greedy state is more likely than a security seeker to add forces
beyond those required for adequate defense of its territory. Even
though extra forces would provide some additional capability to defend, a state interested only in security would
see less value in these forces
than would a greedy state and therefore would be less willing to pay for
them. In the second type of buildup, states prefer different types of
forces. For example, when a state has a choice between forces that add
roughly equally to offensive military missions and defensive ones, a
greedy state is more likely than a security seeker to choose the type of
35 On signaling, see Robert Jervis, The Logic of Images in International Relations (Princeton: Prince
ton University Press, 1970); and James D. Fearon, "Threats to Use Force: The Role of Cosdy Signals in International Crises" (Ph.D. diss., University of California, Berkeley, 1992).
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180 WORLD POLITICS
forces that improve its offense.36 The greedy state sees both greater
value in offense and sometimes less value in not provoking others, since
it anticipates conflict anyway. The question that remains is,
can an adversary that makes logically sound inferences nevertheless reach incorrect conclusions about the
state's goals?37 For the interaction between pure security seekers to pro
duce the increasing fear and insecurity explained by a rational spiral model, the answer must be yes. Otherwise, misperceptions would be
re
quired to generate a
spiral. This type of interaction can occur if the states are uncertain about
the size or type of forces required to maintain a given level of security.
Given this uncertainty, consider the simple case in which some pure se
curity seekers would be satisfied with a lower level of forces and some
with a higher level, but all greedy states would require a higher level. A
pure security seeker that builds to the higher level will then convince its
adversary that it is more likely to be greedy, since only some security
seekers but all greedy states would build to this level. Similar interac tions can occur if there is uncertainty about whether security seekers
re
quire offensive capabilities and if there is uncertainty about the level of
security that security seekers believe is adequate.38 A spiral can also result from
an adversary's uncertainty about the
state's understanding of its motives. For example, when the adversary believes that the state believes there is only a small probability that the
adversary is greedy and, therefore, that the state does not fear it, the ad
versary will conclude that the state's buildup is largely unnecessary for
security and therefore that the state is likely to be motivated by greed. If the adversary's initial estimate of the probability that the
state is fearful
is too low, then this increase in its assessment that the state is greedy will be too large, resulting in a spiral. Kydd's formal analysis of this in
teraction shows that under a wide range of conditions a rational adver
sary will find the state's buildup to be provocative and that updating of beliefs is sensitive to prior expectations about the state's motives.39
36 This is an oversimplification, however, since
a pure security seeker might want the capability to
take territory for a variety of reasons. See fh. 57 below for qualifications. 37 Although Jervis identifies the types of buildups, he does
not really explain how rational states can
spiral; Jervis (fn. 1), 199-201. He notes that states often cannot accurately infer motives from others'
military forces and therefore they tend to assume the worst; Jervis (fh. 2), 64-65. This would clearly
generate increased hostility, but the judgment is logically flawed, since without additional information
states' assessments should remain unchanged. Moreover, states should not assume the worst in the face
of uncertainty, since this can support policies that
are too competitive/provocative. 38
For discussion of related issues concerning subjective security requirements, see Jervis (fn. 1),
174-76. 39
Andrew Kydd, "Game Theory and the Spiral Model," World Politics 49 (April 1997). Kydd notes
(p. 373) that Jervis explores this dynamic for the extreme cases in which bias leads the adversary to
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SECURITY DILEMMA REVISITED 181
The logic of these signaling arguments also works in the opposite di rection?a state can sometimes use restraint in building military forces
to reduce the adversary's concern about its greediness.40 A greedy state
wants to mislead its adversaries into believing that it is interested only in security, since its adversaries would then be more likely to pursue
policies that leave them vulnerable. Given these incentives for a
greedy state to misrepresent its motives,
a security seeker can communicate in
formation about its motives only by adopting a policy that would be less cosdy for it than for a greedy state.
Depending on the conditions they face, states can try to communi
cate their benign intentions via three types of military policies.41 First, arms control agreements that limit both countries' current or future abil
ity to perform offensive missions communicate a lack of greed, since a
greedy state sees greater value in offensive missions than does a pure secu
rity seeker. Second, a state may be able to adopt unilateral defense, choos
ing to protect its country with a defensive doctrine, even if its adversary continues to pursue an offensive one. When offense has the advantage,
maintaining its security via unilateral defense will require the state to
outspend its adversary, which reinforces the message that its motives are
benign. Finally, a state can exercise unilateral restraint, that is, reduce its
military capability below what it would choose for adequate deterrence and defense were it not considering the effects of signaling. One use of
unilateral restraint is primarily tactical?to set in motion a process of
reciprocated restraint.42 Even if not reciprocated, however, unilateral re
straint can succeed by communicating that the state is not greedy and is
committed to improving relations. Thus, although the state's ability to
defend is reduced, the net effect can be an increase in its security. There
is, however, the danger that the adversary will misinterpret the state's re
straint, seeing a lack of resolve instead of a lack greed; in this case, re
straint encourages the adversary to challenge the state. The dual dangers of military shortfalls and underestimates of their resolve make
states re
luctant to pursue ambitious policies of unilateral restraint.
assume the state is definitely secure. For pure security seekers, however, all that is necessary to gener ate a spiral is for the adversary to believe there is
some possibility that the state is secure. See also
George W. Downs and David M. Rocke, Tacit Bargaining, Arms Races, and Arms Control (Ann Arbor
University of Michigan Press, 1990), chap. 4. 40 Kydd (fn. 39) provides a formal treatment. 41 Glaser (fh. 5), 67-70; and idem (fh. 2), 526-33; for related points, see Downs, Rocke, and Siver
son (fn. 28). On reassurance more generally, see Stein (fn. 6); on the inhibiting effect of appearing weak, see James D. Morrow, "Signaling Difficulties with Linkage in Crisis Bargaining," International
Studies Quarterly 36 (June 1996). 42 This approach, often referred to
as GRIT, was developed by Charles E. Osgood, An Alternative to
War or Surrender (Urbana: University of Illinois, 1962).
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182 WORLD POLITICS
MISPERCEPTIONS
In contrast to the rational updating we have considered so far, Jervis also discusses the role of psychological biases in contributing
to states'
overly hostile assessments of others' actions.43 More recent work has fo
cused on bureaucratic and domestic political processes as alternative
sources of bias.
Statesmen who do not understand the security dilemma and there
fore do a poor job of appreciating the choices faced by their adversary will infer incorrectly that the adversary's buildup reflects greedy
mo
tives. A state is likely to make errors that build on each other: a key ini tial mistake is for a state to assume that others know it is interested only in security; the state is then likely to assume that others will not be threatened by its buildup. Consequendy, the state is inclined to see the
adversary's arms buildup as a sign of greed, when in fact the adversary
is building in response to the state's buildup. This is a distorted form of the rational spiral, described above, which is driven entirely by
uncer
tainty about motives; when this bias prevails, states will be more inse
cure and competition will be more intense than is predicted by
a
rational security dilemma.
Attribution theory offers a psychological explanation for this type of flawed reasoning.44 Leaders commonly make the mistake of interpret
ing the behavior of other countries in terms of their goals/motives, even
though they understand their own behavior differendy, in terms of the situation they face. As a result, leaders fail to appreciate that other
countries face a security dilemma and therefore interpret the actions of
others as reflecting greed, even
though a pure security seeker might
have acted the same way. Recent work on misperceptions provides alternative explanations, lo
cating these analytic flaws at the level of the state instead of at the level of the individual. This work uses theories of organizational behavior
and domestic political dynamics to explain why states often exaggerate
an adversary's hostility.45 Militaries are inclined to exaggerate the of
fensive potential of the adversary's forces and to impute malign inten
tions, even when the purposes of the adversary's forces are ambiguous.
43 Misperception receives far less discussion in "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma" (but
see
pp. 181-83) than in Jervis (fh. 2), 67-76. 44 On attribution theory, see Jervis (fn. 2), esp. 35-48; Deborah Welch Larson, Origins of Contain
ment: A Psychological Explanation (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985), esp. 34-42; and
Jonathan Mercer, Reputation and International Politics (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1996). 45 For an emphasis on organizational perspectives,
see Stephen Van Evera, "Causes of War" (Ph.D.
diss., University of California, Berkeley, 1984), pt. 2; and Snyder (fn. 10). Snyder (fh. 11) emphasizes domestic political dynamics.
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SECURITY DILEMMA REVISITED 183
Powerfvd interest groups that would benefit from military competition or
expansion often advance self-serving strategic arguments that exag
gerate the threat posed by the adversary's capabilities or motives. Fur
thermore, states are inclined to create myths about the unthreatening nature of their own behavior, which makes adversaries appear still more
dangerous.46 In sum, through rational updating
a state's military buildup (or re
straint) can lead an adversary to alter its assessment of the state's mo
tives. Research on misperceptions cautions that states are inclined to do
a poor job of updating, with a bias toward exaggerating the hostility of others. When they suffer from these biases, states will act as though the
security dilemma is more severe than it actually is.
Simply Wastes Money
The third way in which efforts to make oneself more secure can be self
defeating is by simply wasting money. Unlike the first two cases, the
state would not end up less secure for having pursued a
policy that ini
tially made its adversary less secure. In this case, the action-reaction
process does not reduce the state's military capability; as we have seen,
action-reaction processes could leave the state's ability to defend itself
unchanged. Nor does the action-reaction generate a
spiral of increas
ingly negative views of the adversary's motives, which is possible since
not all military buildups provide information about motives. Neverthe
less, the security dilemma results in self-defeating efforts that leave the
state less prosperous, yet no more secure.47
Why Can't States Cooperate to Avoid Less Desirable Outcomes?
When arming and engaging in competitive policies more generally
would be self-defeating, why cannot rational states cooperate to avoid
undesirable outcomes? Jervis's formulation of international relations
under anarchy as a
Stag Hunt raises this question starkly, since cooper ation would then be the best option for both countries.48
46 Van Evera (fn. 45), chap. 8; and idem, "Why States Believe Foolish Ideas: Non-Self-Evaluation
by Government and Society" (Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Sci ence Association, Washington, D.C., 1988). 47
Snyder (fh. 33), 461, emphasizes wasted resources; he argues (p. 462) that alliance formation is
similar to arming, in that all states would be better off remaining outside an alliance; action and reac
tion nevertheless generate alliance blocks that are cosdy but fail to increase security. 48 On Stag Hunt and related games, see Kenneth A. Oye, "Explaining Cooperation under Anar
chy: Hypotheses and Strategies," in Oye (fn. 28).
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184 WORLD POLITICS
The core of the answer lies in appreciating that states are uncertain
about their adversaries' motives, lacking confidence that others are pure
security seekers. Uncertainty about motives means that states cannot be
confident that they are in a Stag Hunt,
even if they are. This uncer
tainty about the type of game can make competition/arming the state's
best option. Jervis takes a different view, identifying different sources of
competition when in a
Stag Hunt?misperceptions and irrational be
havior (p. 168). Important as
misperceptions and irrational behavior
can be, however, these are additions to the basic story.49 From the per
spective of structural realism and the emphasis it places on the implica
tions of anarchy, uncertainty about the adversary?both its motives and
its understanding of one's own motives?is the fundamental ingredient
for understanding competition.50 This subsection describes a
simple
game-theory model of how uncertainty about the adversary could re
duce the prospects for productive cooperation. It is usefid to begin by considering why two security seekers might
be in a Stag Hunt.51 On the one hand, a pure security seeker that is
confident of not being attacked has no reason to expand: it is satisfied
with the territory it controls and does not see instrumental value in ad
ditional territory, because it does not fear attack. It could prefer the ter
ritorial status quo (cc) to unopposed expansion (DC) for a variety of
reasons, including how costly it is to govern the additional territory or
because expansion violates an international norm that the state values.
Because the state values its own territory, it could prefer fighting to pro tect its territory (dd) to allowing its adversary to expand unopposed (CD). If two pure security seekers have these preferences and this is
common knowledge, then they are in a Stag Hunt and both countries
should optimally choose to cooperate. On the other hand, a state that is unsure whether its adversary is a
pure security seeker faces a very different situation. A greedy adversary will prefer unopposed expansion
to the territorial status quo; it has
Prisoners' Dilemma preferences. Even if the state's own
preference or
dering remains unchanged,52 its preferred option in light of this adver
sary's expected behavior is competition.
49 For discussion of their impact on a Stag Hunt, see Downs, Rocke, and Siverson (fn. 28), 134-37. 50 In addition, a type of uncertainty that is not explored in the text is also important?uncertainty
about whether an adversary will become greedier. This uncertainty cannot be eliminated because lead ers cannot bind themselves and their successors to current goals; see Jervis (fh. 1), 168.
51 Although my discussion focuses on competition over territory, a parallel analysis can be devel
oped for arms competition. 52 If facing a greedy adversary, however, a pure security seeker would now see instrumental value
in expansion, if this would increase its security. The state would then have Prisoners' Dilemma
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SECURITY DILEMMA REVISITED 185
If the state is unsure about the type of adversary it faces, then it is uncertain about which game it is in. The state should therefore weigh its payoffs for cooperation and competition by its estimate of whether the adversary is greedy
or a pure security seeker.53 Competition is more
attractive the higher the state's estimate that the adversary is greedy.
Offense-Defense Variables: Variation in the Security Dilemma
Jervis's second major contribution is his explanation of how the magni tude and nature of the security dilemma depend on two variables?the
offense-defense balance and offense-defense differentiation. In consid
ering how these variables influence state behavior, he generates a vari
ety of hypotheses, including most prominently hypotheses about the
pressures for competition, the prospects for international cooperation, and the probability of war.
Jervis defines the offense-defense balance in terms of the ease of tak
ing territory compared with the ease of holding territory when at
tacked: the advantage of defense increases with the ease of holding
territory (p. 187). He then proposes a way of measuring the relative
ease of offense and defense: "Does the state have to spend more or less
than one dollar on defensive forces to offset each dollar spent by the
other side on forces that could be used to attack?" (p. 188). The severity of the security dilemma decreases as the offense-de
fense balance shifts toward greater defense advantage. When defense
has the advantage, the forces deployed by a status quo power will in
crease its security more than they decrease the adversary's security. Both
states will achieve reasonable levels of security from action and reaction
cycles, and arms races will peter out. When the advantage of defense is
sufficiendy great, "aggression will be next to impossible, thus rendering international anarchy relatively unimportant'' (p. 187).
By contrast, when offense has the advantage, it is impossible for
states of equal size to enjoy high levels of security simultaneously; arms
races will be intense because when one country adds forces, its adver
preferences instead of Stag Hunt preferences. In addition, the state would see a higher payoff for war,
if war held some prospect of successful expansion or of leaving the adversary relatively weaker, which
makes competition more attractive.
Some of my game-theory colleagues object to this formulation, on the grounds that payoffs should
be fixed and not vary with the type of adversary. A more adequate formulation requires a multiperiod
game. S3
Consequendy, the relative size of payoffs matters. Jervis devotes much of "Cooperation under the
Security Dilemma" to exploring factors that influence payoffs. Offense-defense variables are among the most important and are discussed in the following section.
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186 WORLD POLITICS
sary will have to make a larger addition to restore its ability to defend.54
Jervis argues that offense advantage makes war more
likely for a
variety of reasons. (1) War will be quick and decisive and therefore profitable, so greedy states will find war more attractive. (2) Following the basic
logic of the security dilemma, states will be more insecure, making ex
pansion more valuable, which makes war more attractive to states seek
ing security. (3) The advantage of striking first grows with offense
advantage, which increases the probability of crises escalating via pre
emptive attacks and accidents.55 (4) Because wars are likely, arms races
will be still more intense, increasing their danger. Offense advantage also influences diplomacy, forcing states to form alliances during peace
time, since wars will be decided too quickly to allow the effective for
mation of alliances once fighting has started.56
The second key variable that influences the security dilemma is the
extent to which offense and defense are differentiated, that is, "whether
weapons and policies that protect the state also provide the capability for attack" (p. 199). Offense-defense differentiation has the potential virtually to eliminate the security dilemma: if completely differentiated, a country can then deploy forces that are usefid only for protecting its
territory, which does not reduce its adversary's ability to defend itself.
Moreover, offense-defense differentiation enables a country to signal its
type, since only a country that wants to take territory will buy forces that
have offensive potential.57 Pure security seekers can therefore reduce con
cern about whether they harbor greedy motives, which in turn increases
their own security. The differentiation of offense and defense makes pos sible arms control agreements that ban weapons that are usefid for of
fensive missions, thereby increasing both countries' ability to defend.58
54 For related analysis, see Malcolm W. Hoag, "On Stability in Deterrent Races," World Politics 13
(July 1961). 55 On the relationship between first-strike advantages, preemption, and accidents, see Schelling and
Halperin (fn. 26), 14-16. 56 See also Quester (fh. 3), 105-6.
57 As Jervis (fh. 1) notes, this is an overstatement (pp. 201-2). A pure security seeker might buy of
fense for a number of reasons: (1) if offense has a great advantage over defense; (2) if the state has ex
tended deterrence commitments; (3) because offense may be necessary to regain territory lost at the
beginning of a war, and (4) because the threat of counteroffense can enhance deterrence. On extended
deterrence, see Stephen W. Van Evera, "Offense, Defense and Strategy: When Is Offense Best?"
(Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Sep tember 1987). On counteroffense, see Samuel P. Huntington, "Convention Deterrence and Conven
tional Retaliation in Europe," International Security 8 (Winter 1983-84); and Barry R. Posen, "Crisis
Stability and Conventional Arms Control," Daedulus 120 (Winter 1991). 58 The concept of differentiation is implicit in the distinction between qualitative and quantitative arms control, with the former relying on differentiation. This concept lies at the core of modern arms
control theory; see, for example, Thomas C. Schelling, "What Went Wrong with Arms Control," For
eign Affairs 64 (Winter 1985-86).
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security dilemma revisited 187
In contrast, when offense and defense are not differentiated, a coun
try buying forces to protect its territory can
only choose forces that re
duce its adversary's ability to defend. Signaling becomes much harder and riskier, because pure security seekers and greedy states will buy the
same types of forces.
This stock of hypotheses has been supplemented by Van Evera, who adds hypotheses
on how offense advantage fuels preventive war and en
courages styles of diplomacy that increase the probability of war. Of
fense advantage heightens the significance of shifts in power, which increases incentives for preventive
war. States are more likely to use fait
accompli tactics when offense has the advantage because winning dis
putes is more important when security is scarce, which encourages states to overlook negotiable compromises. States negotiate less and
less successfiilly, because offense advantage makes it more important that agreements be carefiilly balanced, which makes negotiations more
difficult, and because offense advantage increases the advantages of vi
olating agreements, which makes agreements riskier. In addition, of
fense advantage makes states more secretive, since information about
military forces can increase their vulnerability. Secrecy in turn increases
the probability of war by fueling miscalculations of military capabilities and of states' interests.59
The deductive strength of this body of offense-defense hypotheses has gone largely unchallenged, but recent work has questioned the rela
tionship between offense advantage and the frequency of war. Because
the risks of war could be greater for the attacker when offense has the
advantage, potential attackers should face countervailing pressures that
make them more cautious, especially when considering large wars, which could sometimes make war less likely.60
Van Evera has performed the most extensive tests of offense-defense
hypotheses, although even these are preliminary.61 Focusing on Europe since 1798, he finds strong support for the theory's basic hypothesis:
war is more likely when offense has (or is perceived to have) the advan
tage. Examining the First World War in detail, Van Evera finds sup 59
Van Evera (fn. 5), chap. 5. 60 James D. Fearon, "Rationalist Explanations for War," International Organization 49 (Summer
1995), 402-3. And see the following papers prepared for the annual meeting of the International Stud
ies Association, Chicago, February 1995: Fearon, "The Offense-Defense Balance and War since 1648"; and Charles Glaser and Chaim Kaufmann, "Inspecting the Foundations of Offense-Defense Theory:
Can They Bear the Weight?" 61 Van Evera (fh. 5), chaps. 5,6; and idem, "The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First
World War," International Security 9 (Summer 1984). See also Ted Hopf, "Polarity, the Offense-De
fense Balance, and War,"American Political Science Review 85 (June 1991); and Fearon (fn. 60, Febru
ary 1995), who argues that the frequency of war in broad historical periods runs counter to standard
offense-defense predictions.
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188 WORLD POLITICS
port for the broad range of hypotheses about the dangers generated by offense advantage.62 Many of these findings about the First World War have been challenged by Trachtenberg, who is especially critical of as sertions about the role of offense dominance in fueling German expan
sion, and also casts doubt on the importance of first-strike and
preventive incentives in bringing about the war.63
Offense-Defense Theory and the Divide within Structural Realism
It is surprising that Jervis's analysis is often not considered part of the structural-realist family, since his discussion of the security dilemma
rests on the same fundamental assumptions as does structural realism?
that states seek security and live under the condition of international an
archy.64 In part, this is because Jervis did not explicidy frame his analysis in terms of realist theory. Nevertheless, by proposing
a critical improve
ment,65 Jervis's analysis poses a
major challenge from within structural
realism to Waltz's widely accepted version of the theory, which in turn
transforms the standard predictions of structural realism.66
This improvement is to shift the focus of the theory from power to
military capability, specifically to the ability to carry out military mis sions. Focusing
on military missions is the preferable approach because
a state's ability to achieve its goals depends on its ability to use military
force effectively, that is, to accomplish the military missions that are nec
essary to achieve security and possibly nonsecurity goals. For example, a
state's security depends on the probability that its forces can deter, and if
necessary defeat, an adversary's offensive. The decision to focus on mil
itary capabilities essentially requires bringing in offense-defense vari
ables, because it is these variables in combination with power, not power
alone, that influence a country's ability to perform military missions.67 62
See also Jack L. Snyder, "Perceptions of the Security Dilemma in 1914," in Robert Jervis et al.,
Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985). 63 Marc Trachtenberg, History and Strategy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), chap. 2,
esp. 64-72. See also David Kaiser, Politics and War: European Conflict from Philip II to Hitler (Cam
bridge: Harvard University Press, 1990), 324; and idem, "Deterrence or National Interest? Reflections on the Origins of War," Orbis 30 (Spring 1986); David Stevenson, "Militarization and Diplomacy in
Europe before 1914," International Security 22 (Summer 1997). 64 This slighdy overstates the similarity, since Waltz (fn. 4,1979), for example, assumes that states
seek at least security but may have other goals as well (p. 126), while Jervis's formulation assumes that
states are pure security seekers. This difference is not problematic, however. 65 Although "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma" precedes Theory of International Politics by
a year, much of Waltz's argument is available in "Theory of International Relations," in Fred Green
stein and Nelson Polsby, eds., The Handbook of Political Science (Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley, 1975). Waltz (fn. 4,1979) makes only passing reference to the security dilemma (pp. 186-87). 66
See Glaser (fn. 5), which presents additional reasons for modification; and Van Evera (fn. 5). 67 Jervis (fn. 1) does not overlook power, he is explicit that both power and offense-defense vari
ables matter (p. 187).
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SECURITY DILEMMA REVISITED 189
Focusing on military mission capabilities identifies possibilities over looked and/or contradicted by theories that focus solely
on power to ex
plain state behavior. Most generally, although anarchy remains a
constant, variation in the offense-defense variables leads to variation in
the extent to which states should compete or cooperate and in the
probability of war. There are many more specific differences. For exam
ple, small (weak) countries may be able to defend themselves effectively against large (powerful) countries if the offense-defense balance
strongly favors defense, as it does in a world of advanced nuclear
weapons states. If offense and defense are differentiable, states should
often find that significant military cooperation is feasible. These pre dictions and many others run counter to standard power-based struc
tural realism.
As disagreements between structural realists have become more
sharply defined, the labels "offensive realists" and "defensive realists"
have come to be used to distinguish analysts who favor the standard,
competitive predictions from those who believe that structural realism
predicts greater variation in countries' behavior.68 At the heart of the
disagreement is whether to focus on power or on military capabilities and, therefore, on offense-defense variables. Since they focus on power, offensive realists do not address whether offense generally has an ad
vantage, but they do conclude that competitive policies flow from their
power-based formulation of structural realism. Defensive realists are
commonly said to believe that security is plentifid, because defense has the advantage. This, however, is not a central claim of analysts who
focus on offense-defense variables, and in the end its validity hinges on
empirical assessments of the offense-defense balance. For this reason I
have suggested the alternative label of "contingent realism."69
Two Additional Variables: Greed and Unit-Level Knowledge of Motives
In addition to the two offense-defense variables that Jervis highlights, there are two additional variables that influence the magnitude of the
security dilemma: the extent of the adversary's greed and the extent of
the adversary's unit-level knowledge about the state's motives, in par
ticular, knowledge gleaned by studying the inner workings of the state
68 See, for example, Snyder (fn. 11), who uses "aggressive" instead of "offensive" (pp. 10-13); and
Sean M. Lynn-Jones and Steven E. Miller, "Preface," in Michael E. Brown, Lynn-Jones, and Miller, eds., The Perils of Anarchy (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1995), xi. 69
See Glaser (fn. 5).
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190 WORLD POLITICS
and its leaders. These are not structural variables and therefore, quite
appropriately, do not play a central role in Jervis's discussion of the se
curity dilemma. Considering these variables is also valuable because it
helps us
place the security dilemma within still broader debates over in
ternational relations theory.
Greed
In a world of pure security seekers, the security dilemma helps solve a
basic puzzle?that even when states have compatible, benign goals, there is competition and conflict. In a world with one or more greedy states, the puzzle largely disappears: the incompatibility of states' goals
provides a
straightforward explanation for competition and conflict.70
The security dilemma does not become unimportant in a world with
greedy states, however, because greedy states can also be insecure.71
This said, it is also true that when a state knows that its adversary is
greedy, maintaining adequate military capabilities becomes more im
portant and being sensitive to the adversary's insecurity becomes less
important. Furthermore, the importance of the security dilemma both
for explaining and for avoiding international conflict depends on how
greedy one's adversary is: all else being equal, the security dilemma is of
less significance when the state's adversary is greedier. The importance of greedy states has been the focus of recent work
that argues that structural realism exaggerates the importance of the se
curity dilemma by trying to explain international politics primarily in terms of the interaction between states that seek only security. Schweller argues that this "status quo bias" leaves neorealism unable to
explain "most great-power behavior in modern history." According to
Schweller, making realist theory more effective requires broadening its
assumptions about states' motives to include at least some states that are
interested in nonsecurity expansion, that is, that are greedy.72 As I ex
plain below, Schweller's conclusions are somewhat exaggerated, because
he believes incorrecdy that greedy states rob the security dUemma of all
explanatory value. Nevertheless, his basic point is sound: differences in
70 Another basic puzzle still exists, however why states?security seekers
as well as greedy states?
do not compromise instead of incurring the cost of fighting; see Fearon (fh. 60, Summer 1995). 71 For related points, see Robert Jervis, "Arms Control, Stability, and Causes of War," Political Science
Quarterly 108 (Summer 1993), 244-45. Randall L. Schweller argues otherwise, holding that when a
greedy state exists there is no security dilemma; see Schweller, "Neorealisrr?s Status-Quo Bias: What
Security Dilemma?" Security Studies 5 (Spring 1996). 72 Schweller (fn. 71), quote at 106. Disagreement about the relative importance of greed and inse
curity is long standing. For a comparison of the contending formulations offered by realists, see, for
example, Arnold Wolfers, Discord and Collaboration: Essays on International Politics (Baltimore: Johns
Hopkins University Press, 1962), esp. 83-84.
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SECURITY DILEMMA REVISITED 191
states' goals matter because they can lead states to choose different poli
cies; a security seeker will sometimes choose cooperation when, under
the same conditions, a greedy state will choose competition. The stan
dard structural-realist analysis obscures this point by mistakenly pre
dicting that in general security seekers will pursue competitive policies.
By contrast, defensive/contingent realism suggests the importance of
motives by explaining that under a range of conditions security seekers
should find cooperation to be their preferred policy and, therefore, that in these cases competition may reflect motives beyond security.
Given that the explanatory power of the security dilemma decreases
when adversaries are greedier, the policy prescriptions that follow from
imagining conflict driven by the security dilemma become at best less
helpfid and at worst potentially disastrous. For example, arms control
will tend to be riskier because it requires forgoing the opportunity to communicate resolve by competing. In addition to this risk, unilateral
restraint designed to signal the state's security motives becomes still more
dangerous, since a greedy adversary may be more likely to exploit its military advantages.73 Unilateral defense?building defense instead
of offense?is more likely to weaken deterrence, because greedier states
are more likely to conclude that the defender's lack of a retaliatory of
fensive option makes the risks of war acceptable.74
Although the security dilemma becomes less important in a world with greedy states, offense-defense variables still play
a role in explaining war. When focusing on security seekers, the most interesting security dilemma explanations concern how offense advantage increases mutual
insecurity and thereby creates conflicts of interest. In contrast, when fo
cusing on greedy states, offense-defense variables are most important for
explaining the benefits of war. At least according to the standard argu
ment, offense advantage still increases that probability of war, but in
this instance because the prospects of winning are greater and/or be
cause its costs are lower, which makes deterring greedy states harder.
Unit-Level Knowledge of the State's Motives
The second variable to be considered is the adversary's knowledge of the state's motives. The security dilemma is driven by the adversary's
uncertainty about whether the state is in fact motivated purely by secu
73 Restraint may not be ill-advised, however, since for a greedy insecure adversary the reduction in its
insecurity could still offset the reduction in the state's military capabilities. Assessing the net effect re
quires more specific assumptions and a detailed model of interaction. By contrast, unilateral concessions are always misguided when one is facing a secure greedy state, as described by the deterrence modeL 74
On the deterrent value of counteroffensive capabilities, see fn. 57.
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192 WORLD POLITICS
rity concerns. If the adversary were certain that it faced a pure security
seeker, then the state would face a gready reduced security dilemma.75
The adversary would understand that military buildups reflected the state's insecurity rather than its greed. And military advantages would be
far less threatening, since the adversary would know that the state did not
want to attack. As a result, in contrast to the predictions of the security
dilemma, arming and gaining military advantages would usually increase
the state's security, not reduce it, and at worst would waste money. A key assumption of structural realism guarantees, in combination
with the security dilemma, that states will be at least somewhat uncer
tain about others' motives. The theory posits a world in which states do
not rely on the internal characteristics of other states?for example, their type of political or economic system?to divine their motives. In
stead, states interpret their adversaries' actions to infer their motives.
The security dilemma, however, can prevent adversaries from acting in
ways that would entirely clarify their motives. As discussed above, when
states face a security dilemma, many of the policies that would provide
necessary military capabilities will provide ambiguous information about their motives. For example, when offense and defense
are not en
tirely differentiated, the military policies adopted by a pure security seeker might also be taken by an adversary that
was motivated partly by
greed; and, when offense has a large advantage, pure security seekers
may be unable to afford defensive forces and strategies. Under these
conditions, reducing uncertainty would require states to deploy forces
that are militarily inadequate, since this is their only option for signal
ing benign motives. States will often conclude that these policies are
more dangerous than alternatives that do not reduce uncertainty about
their motives but that do provide better military capabilities. If, however, states can rely
on sources of information beyond those
that structural realism allows, they may be able to reduce uncertainty further and thereby mitigate the security dilemma. The result
can be a
shift to more cooperative policies. Consider the argument that democ
racies are believed not to have greedy motives. If this were the case,
then a military buildup launched by a democracy would be less alarm
ing to its adversaries than a similar buildup launched by an authoritar
75 Although at first glance this might seem to eliminate the security dilemma, this need
not be the
case. A state motivated entirely by security might choose war to increase its security; consequendy, the
stated insecurity should lead the adversary to fear it. Thus, eliminating the security dilemma would re
quire that the adversary know not only that the state was a pure security seeker but also that the state
did not fear it. Consequendy, some points in this paragraph are overstated.
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security dilemma revisited 193
ian regime.76 As a result, the democracy faces a less severe security
dilemma;77 and interactions between democracies could result in a de
mocratic peace instead of intense competition, even when structural
conditions create a severe security dilemma.
Unit-level information that mitigates the security dilemma can also
support more competitive policies. This occurs when a state remains
uncertain of an adversary's motives but believes unit-level information
enables its adversary to appreciate that it is a pure security seeker. Com
petitive policies now become more desirable, since they do not suffer
from a key shortcoming identified by the security dilemma; that is, they do not signal malign motives.
This line of argument plays a central role in the "deterrence model,"
which rejects the security dilemma completely, albeit implicidy, by as
suming that the adversary knows the state is a pure security seeker.78
Combining this with the assumption that the adversary is greedy, the
deterrence model calls for highly competitive policies and warns against the dangers of restraint and concessions. For example, in describing the
cold war competition between the United States and the Soviet Union, the deterrence model held that the Soviets were bent on expansion for
entirely greedy reasons and knew that they had nothing to fear from the United States.
In short, examining a
couple of key nonstructural variables high
lights the fact that the role of the security dilemma depends on certain
basic theoretical assumptions. Structural realism is built on
assumptions that guarantee a central role for the security dilemma. If, however, we
start from different assumptions about states' motives or the sources of
information about state's motives, the importance and severity of the
security dilemma can decrease.
76 In this spirit, see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, War and Reason: Domestic and In
ternational Imperatives (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1992), chap. 5. A different argument is that the openness that characterizes mature democracies results in domestic debate that cannot be manip ulated simply to deceive an adversary, and therefore provides valuable information about motives. See
Andrew Kydd, "Signaling and Structural Realism" (Manuscript 1996); and Kenneth A. Schultz, "Do mestic Political Competition and Bargaining in International Crises" (Ph.D. diss., Stanford University, 1996). Schultz develops this type of argument for crisis interactions. 77
Arguing along these lines is James D. Fearon, "Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation
of International Disputes," American Political Science Review 88 (September 1994), 587. If, however, a
democracy believes this to be the case and it is not, then we get the kind of misperception described
above: the democracy believes that it doe not face a security dilemma and therefore does not moderate
its building; its adversary, not confident that the democracy is a pure security seeker, then responds to
the buildup; and the democracy then increases its estimate of the adversary's greediness because it be lieves that its adversary knew that a response was unnecessary for maintaining its security. 78
See Jervis (fn. 2), chap. 3; and Glaser (fn. 2).
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194 WORLD POLITICS
Criticisms of the Security Dilemma and Offense-Defense Theory
Critique 1: Greedy States, Not the Security Dilemma, Are the Problem
As discussed above, the importance of the security dilemma for both
explanation and prediction decreases when one or more of the major
powers is a greedy state. Critics offer empirical support for this theo
retical observation?that the source of competition and war in many
key cases has been greed, not insecurity. Critics have argued that the
First World War, the cold war, certain major empires, and much al
liance behavior is better explained by focusing on states' greed than
on
their insecurity. For example, Glynn criticizes as fundamentally flawed those analyses
of the First World War that focus on the security dilemma, offense ad
vantage, German insecurity, and the arms races, arguing that they miss
the real problem?Germany's hegemonic ambitions. The military com
petition could not be slowed by negotiation because its underlying cause was "the very nature of German ambitions and of the German
regime."79 Gray argues in the same spirit that "the political antagonism
that generates the objective need for alleviation via arms control... is
the very reason why arms control must fail."80 This is not an isolated
view. Much of the rationale for competing with the Soviet Union dur
ing the cold war rested on the basic argument that Soviet greed, not in
security, was the root problem, a point captured in Jervis's description of
the deterrence model.81 Schweller argues that the common occurrence
of greedy states explains the frequency of alliances in which states
bandwagon, that is, join together to change the status quo and share
the gains of expansion.82
Although resolving the empirical question raised by these criticisms is obviously beyond the scope of this article, two general points deserve
79 Patrick Glynn focuses on Van Events arguments; see Glynn, Closing Pandoras Box: Arms Races, Arms Control and the History of the Cold War (New York: Basic Books, 1992), chap. 1, quote at 21. For a more nuanced but at least partially sympathetic discussion, see Trachtenberg (fn. 63), chap. 2, esp. 49-57.
80 Colin S. Gray, Weapons Dont Make War (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 1993), 174. A
similar theme runs through idem, House of Cards: Why Arms Control Must Fail (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell
University Press, 1992). 81 Jervis (fn. 2), chap. 3. Douglas Seay reviews the debate among Soviet specialists;
see Seay "What
Are the Soviets' Objectives in Their Foreign, Military, and Arms Control Policies?" in Lynn Eden and
Steven E. Miller, eds., Nuclear Arguments (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1989). 82 Randall L. Schweller, "Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In," Inter
national Security 19 (Summer 1994).
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SECURITY DILEMMA REVISITED 195
to be emphasized. First, states may face irreducible uncertainty about
adversaries' motives or adversaries may have mixed motives; either way, decision makers should strive for a robust mix of policies.83 Second,
as
noted above, we should remember that security-dilemma and offense
defense arguments continue to apply in a world with greedy states, but
also that the most penetrating and satisfying aspects of these arguments become less important.
Critique 2: The Security Dilemma Does Not Exist
the security dilemma is logically flawed
Schweller argues that the logic of the security dilemma is internally flawed. Given the assumption of structural realism that states
are pure se
curity seekers, there should be no security dilemma, unless states are un
certain of other's motives/intentions. He argues that this is problematic, both because the security dilemma is then ualways apparent,
not real," and because conflicts of interest are then not genuine, but instead the
re
sult of misunderstanding, which "violates realism's most basic tenet."84
These criticisms are off the mark because they fail to appreciate the
central role that uncertainty plays in structural realism. A core assump
tion of the theory is that under most conditions states will be at least
somewhat uncertain about others' current motives: states are imagined as black boxes that provide no information about internal differences,
except for the observable outputs of their international policy choices.
As discussed above, these outputs will often not eliminate uncertainty about the adversary's motives. Therefore, from the perspective of
a
structural theory, this uncertainty is real, not imagined or the product of
misunderstanding. As a result, the state faces a real security dilemma,
for the reasons elaborated in the beginning sections of this article.
In the structural-realist formulation the combination of uncertainty and anarchy can generate incompatibility between pure security seek
ers. States' conflicting interests are genuine, but they reflect the incom
patibility of means, not ends.85
SECURITY SEEKERS