Secular Solar and Geomagnetic Variations in the Last 10,000 Years

NATO ASI Series Advanced Science Institutes Series

A Series presenting the results of activities sponsored by the NA TO Science Committee, which aims at the dissemination of advanced scientific and technological knowledge, with a view to strengthening links between scientific communities.

The Series is published by an international board of publishers in conjunction with the NATO Scientific Affairs Division

A Life Sciences B Physics

C Mathematical and Physical Sciences

o Behavioural and Social Sciences E Applied Sciences

F Computer and Systems Sciences G Ecological Sciences H Cell Biology

Plenum Publishing Corporation London and New York

Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht, Boston and London

Springer-Verlag Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, London, Paris and Tokyo

Series C: Mathematical and Physical Sciences - Vol. 236

Secular Solar and Geomagnetic Variations in the Last 10,000 Years edited by

F. R. Stephenson and

A. W. Wolfendale Physics Department, University of Durham, Durham, England

Kluwer Academic Publishers

Dordrecht I Boston I London

Published in cooperation with NATO Scientific Affairs Division

Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Secular Solar and Geomagnetic Variations in the Last 10,000 Years Durham, England 6-10 April 1987

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Secular solar and geoMagnetic variations in the last 10,000 years : proceedings of the NATO advanced research Norkshop held in DurhaM, England, April 6-10, 1987 I edited by F.R. Stephenson and A.W. Wo Henda Ie.

p. CM. -- (NATO ASI series. Series C, Mathelatlcal and physical sciences: vol. 236)

Includes Index. lSBN-13: 978-94-010-7853-5 e-1SBN-13: 978-94-009-3011-7 001: 10.1007/ 978-94-009-3011-7

1. Solar osclllatlons--Hlstory--Congresses. 2. Magnetls., Terrestrlal--Secular variation--Hlstory--Congresses. 3. Paleoclllatology--Congresses. I. Stephenson, F. Richard (Francis Rlchard), 1941- II. Helfandale, A. W. III. Serin: NATO ASI series. Series C, Mathelatlcal and physical sciences: no. 236. OO539.083S43 1988 523.7--dc19

ISBN-13: 978-94-010-7853-5

Published by Kluwer Academic Publishers, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface

List of Participants

Section I. The Sun

Variability of the Present and Ancient Sun: a test of Solar Uniformitarianism J.A. Eddy

The Sun among the Stars: What Stars Indicate about Solar Variability D.R. Soderblom and S.L. Baliunas

Long and Short Cycles in Solar Activity during the last Millennia M.R. Attolini, M. Galli and T. Nanni

Is the Solar Cycle an Example of Deterministic Chaos? N.O. Weiss

Fast Dynamos with Flux Expulsion A.M. Soward

The Pattern of Large-scale Convection in the Sun C.A. Jones and D.J. Galloway

Section II. The Sun from Historical Records

Solar Variability from Historical Records F.R. Stephenson

The Behaviour of Solar Activity as Inferred from Sunspot Observations 165 B.C. to 1986 A.D. Wittmann and Z.T. Xu

Solar, Geomagnetic and Auroral Variations Observed in Historical data J. Feynman

ix

xiii

1

25

49

69

79

97

109

131

141

vi

Analysis of Pre-telescopic and Telescopic Sunspot Observations K.K.C. Yau

Seasonal and Secular Variations of the Oriental Sunspot Sightings D.H. Willis, C.M. Doidge, M.A. Hapgood, K.K.C. Yau and F.R. Stephenson

The Solar Diameter since 1715 J.H. Parkinson, F.R. Stephenson and L.V. MOrrison

Section III. The Sun and Climate

The Climate of the Past 10,000 Years and the Role of the Sun T.M.L. Wigley

The Climatic Impact of Secular Variations in Solar Irradiance G.C. Reid and K.S. Gage

Section IV. Solar and Geomagnetic Signals in Cosmogenic Nuclides and Sea Sediments

The Solar Component of the Atmospheric 14C Record

161

187

203

209

225

M. Stuiver and T.F. Braziunas 245

Production and Decay of Radiocarbon and its Modulation by Geomagnetic Field-Solar Activity changes with Possible Implications for Global Environment P.E. Damon 267

lOBe as a Proxy Indicator of Variations in Solar Activity and Geomagnetic Field Intensity during the last 10,000 Years G.M. Raisbeck and F. Yiou 287

Temporal lOBe Variations in Ice: Information on Solar Activity and Geomagnetic Field Intensity J. Beer, U. Siegenthaler and A. Blinov 297

Model Comparison of l4C and lOBe Isotope Records U. Siegenthaler and J. Beer 315

The Dependence of Cosmogenic Isotope Production Rate on Solar Activity and Geomagnetic Field Variations A. Blinov 329

Solar Imprint in Sea Sediments: the Thermoluminescence Profile as a New Proxy Record G. Cini Castagnoli and G. Bonino 341

Section V. The Earth's Magnetic Field

Secular Variations of the Geomagnetic Field -the Archaeomagnetic Record D.H. Tarling

The Geomagnetic Field over the Last 200 Years F.J. Lowes

Geomagnetic Field and Radiocarbon Activity through Holocene Time K.M. Creer

Geomagnetic Secular Variation as Determined from Paleomagnetic Studies of Lake Sediments and its Relation to the Study of the Cosmic Ray Flux K.L. Verosub

Archeomagnetic Results from United States, 10,000 BC to Present, and with some Data from MesoAmerica R.L. DuBois

Geomagnetic Intensity Measurements from Northern Greece and their Comparison with other Data from Central and N. Eastern Europe for the Period 0-2000 yr AD S.P. Papamarinopoulos

Section VI. Cosmic Rays, the Earth and Cosmology

The Sun and Cosmic Rays A.W. Wolfendale

Terrestrial Variations within given Energy, Mass and Momentum Budgets; Paleoclimate, Sea Level, Paleo­magnetism, Differential Rotation and Geodynamics N.-A.Marner

349

367

381

399

419

437

443

455

~i

viii

Geophysical Observations over the Last Few Millennia and their Implications S.K. Runcorn

Astronomy: Evolution of Evolution Sir William McCrea

Index

479

489

499

PREFACE

Solar and geomagnetic variability are of considerable interest for scientists of many different persuasions and indeed one has the distinct impression that for the sun at least, there is direct relevance for mankind in general as the interrelation between solar and terrestrial phenomena is starting to be appreciated.

From the vast time scale of interest in the variability field, attention was confined to the last 10,000 years in a NATO Advanced Research Workshop held from April 6 - 10, 1987 in Durham, England, and the present publication comprises the lectures given there.

Such a Workshop was very timely in view of the impressive new data available from 14C analysis in dated tree rings and lOBe in polar ice cores, from natural palaeomagnetic records in lacustrine sediments and from archaeomagnetic material. Also to be mentioned are new studies of historical accounts of naked-eye sunspots and aurorae. All the data have contributed to improvements in under­standing the relative variations of solar properties, the geomagnetic field and climate and it is hoped that this volume will convey the flavour of these advances in knowledge.

A feature of the Workshop was the lively discussions which followed so many of the papers. There were several instances of healthy disagreement and this is reflected in the opposing views presented inanumber of the papers published here.

We were fortunate at the Workshop in having with us the doyen of British Astronomy, Professor Sir William McCrea FRS. His evening discourse on Cosmology was so interesting and thought provoking that we urged him to produce a manuscript for publication. The resulting paper is included as the finale to this volume.

Many members of the Physics Department and staff of St. Mary's College, where participants were accommodated, helped with the organisation and we are most grateful to them. Our particular thanksto our Departmental Superintendent, Mr. C.F. Cleveland, for his many contributions, to Ms. Margaret Chipchase for her considerable efforts in retyping the manuscripts and to Mrs. Pauline Russell for her art work. We also acknowledge the painstaking work of Mr. Kevin Yau who helped with Editorial duties.

F.R. Stephenson A.W. Wolfendale Durham, March 4, 1988.

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Institute Director:

Co-director:

Organizing Committee:

F.R. Stephenson

A. W. Wolfendale

Department of Physics University of Durham Durham, U.K.

J.A. Eddy

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.

D.H. Tading

Department of Geological Sciences, Plymouth Polytechnic, U.K.

plus Director and Co-director.

We are grateful to the Scientific Affairs Division of NATO for sponsoring this Workshop.

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

Lecturers

Beer, J., Institute for Medium Energy Physics, Zurich Cini Castagnoli, G., Universita di Torino Creer, K.M., University of Edinburgh Damon, P.E., University of Arizona, Tucson DuBois, R.L., University of Oklahoma, Norman Eddy, J.A., University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Feynman, J., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena Galli, M., Universita di Bologna Isaak, G.R., University of Birmingham McCrea, Sir William, University of Sussex Morner, N.-A., Stockholm~niversity Raisbeck, G.M., Laboratoire Rene Bernas, Orsay -Reid, G.C., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder Runcorn, S.K., University of Newcastle upon Tyne Siegenthaler, U., University of Bern Soderblom, D.R., Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore Stephenson, F.R., University of Durham Stuiver, M., University of Washington, Seattle Tarling, D.H., Plymouth Polytechnic Verosub, K.L., University of California, Davis Weiss, N.O., University of Cambridge Wigley, T.M.L., University of East Anglia Wittmann, A.D., University Observatory, Goettingen Wolfendale, A.W., University of Durham

Participants

Bailiff, I.K., University of Durham Blinov, A., Leningrad Polytechnic Bonino, G., Universita di Torino Cecchini, S., Universita di Bologna Doidge, C.M., Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton Hanna, R.L., University of California, Davis Harding, A.F., University of Durham Jones, C.A., University of Newcastle upon Tyne Jones, M.K., University of Durham Kenworthy, J.M., University of Durham Lowes, F.J., University of Newcastle upon Tyne McCartan, D.G., University of Newcastle upon Tyne Osborne, J.L., University of Durham Papamarinopoulos, S.P., University of Patras Parkinson, J.H., University College, London Soward, A.M., University of Newcastle upon Tyne Tulunay, Y.K., Istanbul Teehnical University

xiii

xiv

Wilkinson, D.A., University of Durham Willis, D.M., Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton Wright, D.A., University of Durham Yau, K.K.C., University of Durham