. The Virginia

Tech Office of Economic Development produced this document for the

Blue Ridge Works Workforce Development Board. This workforce report

details regional changes for the past five to eight years to provide an

overview of socioeconomic trends in the region. The data outlines how

the regional population, wages, cost of living, health outcomes, etc.

changed in Bland, Carroll, Floyd, Giles, Grayson, Montgomery, Pulaski,

Smyth, Washington, Wythe counties and the cities of Bristol, Galax, and

Radford during this period.

Each page of this report is provides data that speaks to different ways of

knowing and understanding the state of the region.

Section 1: Demographic Trends

Section 2: Industry Trends

Section 3: Labor Force Trends

Section 4: Education Trends

Section 5: Regional Socioeconomic Profile

Section 6: Personal Health and Access

For additional information or questions about the data presented here,

contact the Virginia Tech Office of Economic Development.

369,106 371,013 372,315 372,530

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10%

Under 5

5 to 910 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 2425 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 3940 to 44

45 to 4950 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 6465 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 7980 to 84

85+

Several small

minority groups saw

growth during this

period. For instance,

the African American,

two or more races, and

Hispanic and Latino

population grew by

1,941, 1,245, and

1,173 people,

respectively.

Much

of this growth can be

attributed to

population growth in

Montgomery County.

Median age also

increased by 1.8

years, rising from

40.5 in 2010 to 42.4

in 2017.

Vietnam Era

Veterans Gulf War

and Later

Korean

WarWorld

War II

4,541 (49%)

3,000 (32%)

1,161

(13%)

578

(6%)

16%

(60,084)

Total

Population

(372,530)

Disabled Population

This is slightly higher

than the statewide and national

averages of 11.5% and 12.6%, respectively.

American Community Survey, 2017 5-Year Estimates, Tables S101, S2101, B02001, S1810

Male Female

The majority of

veterans in the region are aged

55 to 74, with most having served in the Vietnam War.

Total: 9,280

Vietnam Era Gulf War and

Later

Korean War World

War II

9,148 (40.1%)

6,013 (26.4%)

2,350 (10.3%)

1,175

(5.2%)

WhiteBlackAsianTwo RacesHispanic

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

93.2% 93% 92.7% 92.4% 92.2% 92%

3.5% 3.6% 3.7%

1.9% 2% 2%

3.2%

1.8%

2.1%

3.3%

1.8%

2.2% 2.3% 2.4%

3.6%

1.9%

2.5% 2.4%

1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6%

371,013 371,763 372,315 372,656 372,257 372,530

Total: 22,791

2010 2012 2014 2017

Industry2018

Employment

% Change

2012-2018

% Total

Employment

Government 34,847 -3.5% 22.4%

Manufacturing 25,226 -1.7% 16.2%

Retail 19,133 2.7% 12.3%

Healthcare/Social Assistance 16,656 8.9% 10.7%

Accommodation/Food Service 14,235 4.1% 9.1%

Administrative Support 7,633 20.1% 4.9%

Other Services 7,234 15% 4.6%

Construction 5,799 -12.6% 3.7%

Professional Services 5,420 9.1% 3.5%

Transportation and

Warehousing3,507 -7.6% 2.3%

When considering

location quotient, regional

strengths include manufacturing,

government, retail, and

accommodation and food

services. Regional weaknesses

include professional services,

administration support,

transportation and warehousing,

and construction.

A net gain of 643

establishments

accompanied this job

growth. 10 of 21 sectors

saw employment growth

during this period, with

administrative support,

healthcare, and other

services accounting of

the bulk of this growth.

This sector employed 34,847

people in 2018, accounting for 22.4% of the

region’s total employment. Growing sectors

include: administrative support (20.1%), other

services (15%), professional services (9.1%),

healthcare (8.9%), accommodation/food

services (4.1%), and retail (2.7%). Additionally,

Several of the region’s largest sectors

experienced slight employment loss including

government (-3.5%) and manufacturing (-1.7%).

135,749 137,441 140,199 139,162 141,902

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Q1 2

01

4

Q2 2

01

4

Q3 2

01

4

Q4 2

01

4

Q1 2

01

5

Q2 2

01

5

Q3 2

01

4

Q4 2

01

5

Q1 2

01

6

Q2 2

01

6

Q3 2

01

6

Q4 2

01

6

Q1 2

01

7

Q2 2

01

7

Q3 2

01

7

Q4 2

01

7

Q1 2

01

8

Q2 2

01

8

8,965 8,969 9,330 9,554 9,612

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Tota

l E

mplo

ym

en

t

Tota

l Esta

blis

hm

ents

2018 G

ross R

egio

nal P

roduct

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0

$2.8 Billion

$2.6 Billion

$2.4 Billion

$2.2 Billion

$2 Billion

$1.8 Billion

$1.6 Billion

$1.4 Billion

$1.2 Billion

$1 Billion

$800 Million

$600 Million

$400 Million

$200 Million

$0

Location Quotient

Transportation/Warehousing

Government

Accommodation/Food Service

Manufacturing

HealthcareRetail

Admin. Support

Other Services

Construction

Prof. Services

Bubble Size

Relative to

Employment

Source: Emsi Economic Modeling, Q3 2018. Virginia Labor Market Information: Quarterly Census of Earnings and Wages

**Location quotient indicates the

employment concentration of an industry

within a region (higher concentrations=

higher value). Gross Regional Product is

the final value of all goods and services

produced in the region.

This follows a larger

trend of labor force decline as the “baby-boomer” generation continues to exit the labor force. The rate of

labor force decline in Region II is lower than that of the state, but marginally higher than that of the nation.

. Only two occupations

(education and healthcare) are found in the top ten largest occupations by employment and the ten highest

paying occupations in the region.

Source: Emsi Economic Modeling, Q3 2018 data set on Occupations in WDA1; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017 5-Year Estimates;

Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

51.9%

44.0%

38.1%

42.5%

47.8%

41.3%

42.3%

46.1%

42.4%

40.6%

43.3%

45.4%

48.7%

42.2%

49.5%

57.3%

51.5%

45.1%

53.9%

51.4%

46.6%

52.2%

53.0%

50.7%

47.9%

45.0%

5.9%

6.5%

4.6%

6.0%

7.1%

4.8%

6.3%

7.4%

5.4%

6.4%

6.0%

6.7%

6.4%

Bland County

Carroll County

Floyd County

Giles County

Grayson County

Montgomery County

Pulaski County

Smyth County

Washington County

Wythe County

Bristol city

Galax city

Radford city

57.3% 57.4% 56.9% 57% 56.7% 56.4%

67.1% 66.7% 66.4% 66.3% 66.2% 66.1%

63.8% 63.6% 63.3% 63.1% 63.1% 63.2%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

WDA II

VA

USA

Working age, Not in Labor Force Employed Unemployed

Unemployment in Region II has fallen

by 2.7% since 2012. Unemployment is

varied at the county level. Carroll

County had the lowest unemployment

rate at 3.8% while the city of Bristol

had the highest at 7.7% for 2017.

7.2% 7.0%6.1%

5% 5%4.5%6.1% 5.7%

5.2%4.5% 4.1% 3.8%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170%

WDA II

VA

$41.2$36.8 $36.6 $34.1 $32.9 $32.0 $30.8

$23.8 $23.0$20.0

Ma

nagem

ent

Arc

hitectu

re/E

ng

ine

ering

Leg

al

Com

pute

r/M

ath

em

atical

Life/P

hysic

al/S

ocia

lS

cie

nce

Hea

lthcare

Bu

sin

ess

Ed

ucatio

n

Mili

tary

-on

ly

Art

s/E

nte

rtain

ment/

Media

4.0%

4.1%

4.7%

4.9%

6.0%

8.4%

8.8%

10.3%

10.9%

13.8%

4.0%

4.0%

4.6%

5.1%

5.6%

7.9%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

13.8%

Building and Grounds Cleaning

Personal Care and Service

Installation/Maintenance/Repair

Healthcare

Transportation/Material Moving

Education/Training/Library

Food Preparation and Serving

Sales and Related Occupations

Production

Office and Administrative Support

2017

2017

*For this report, programs leading to employment in positions with high annual

openings and wages at or above $15/hr. were selected.

80

73

85

8183

77

74

83

77

80

Reading Writing Soc. Studies Math Science

WDA II

VA

Education Level WDA II VA

Dropout Rate 4.2% 5.4%

% On-Time Grad. Rate 93.6% 91.6%

Truancy Rate 4% 4%

Field of Study

Median

Wage

2017

Completions

%

Completion

Change

(2012-2017)

% Jobs

Change

(2012-

2017)

Annual

Openings

Engineering $27.92 2,310 26.9% 3% 1,750

Healthcare

Professions$19.58 1,380 -2% 9% 3,070

Media and

Comm.$22.63 375 -8.1% 5% 630

Social

Services$24.96 732 3.7% 5% 564

Education $21.41 710 -0.7% 3% 740

Computer/IT $23.43 480 7.7% 6% 485

Education Level2012 WDA II

%

2018 WDA II

%

Change

(2012-2018)

Less Than 12th

Grade16.6% 16.5% -0.1%

High School

Diploma32.8% 31.7% -0.1%

Some College 19% 19% 0%

Associate’s Degree 8.3% 8.6% 0.3%

Bachelor’s Degree 13.7% 14.4% 0.7%

Graduate Degree(s) 9.6% 9.8% 0.2%

Students in Region II

performed up to 4 percentage points higher than

statewide averages in Reading, Social Studies, Math and

Science. The region’s strongest subjects are Social

Studies, Science, and Math, which is promising for the

STEM focus of the changing national workforce.

Truancy, or

unauthorized/illegitimate absence from school, in Region

II is on par with the statewide average.

These programs train students for nursing,

production, cybersecurity, and therapy and

counseling occupations, each of which have seen

employment growth in Region II. Alternatively, some

programs saw fewer completions despite relatively

high annual openings, job growth, and competitive

pay. For instance, media and communications,

education, and healthcare programs all saw

reductions in completions between 2012 and 2017

despite median hourly wages at or above $19/hr.

and at least 450 openings each.

Source: Emsi Economic Modeling (2018). Virginia Department of Education School Climate Reports & SOL Performance Reports (2018)

The

proportion of residents with only a high school degree

also decreased during 2012-2018, signifying an

increase in regional postsecondary participation.

Likewise, Region I saw a slight increase in those with

associate’s, bachelor’s and graduate degrees

between 2012 and 2018.

Socioeconomic Challenges Region II VA USA

Uninsured Adults: Percentage of people under age 65 without insurance. 2015 10% 10% 12%

Income inequality: Ratio of household income at the 80th percentile to income at the 20th percentile

(the higher the number, the greater the income inequality). 2012-20164.90 4.80 4.50

Single parent households: Percentage of children that live in single-parent households. 2012-2017 30% 30% 33%

Households with severe problems: Number of households with at least 1 of 4 housing problems:

overcrowding, high housing costs, lack of kitchen or plumbing facilities. 2010-201431% 15% 14%

Children in poverty: Percentage of children (under age 18) living in poverty. 2016 20% 14% 22%

Teen birth rate: Births per 1,000 females ages 15-19. 2010-2014 34% 21% 34%

Disconnected youth: Teenagers and young adults between the ages of 16 and 24 who are neither

working nor in school. 2010-201416% 12% 19%

Food insecurity: Lack of consistent access to enough food for an active, healthy life. 2015 12.5% 11% 14%

Students receiving free/reduced meals: For free meals, a household’s income must be below 130%

of the Federal poverty threshold and for reduced-price meals, it must be below 185% as defined by

the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. 2018

53% 44% 55%

Jobs increased by 6,153 over the last

5 years.

Regional median household income

is $14.7K below the national median

household income of $57.6K.

In 2017, Region II cost of living index

was 4.6 points lower than that of

Virginia (102.3).

. Galax city had the lowest

median household income and highest concentration

of families living in poverty (17.7%) for 2017.

This is higher than

Virginia’s total poverty rate of (8.02%) and that of the

nation’s (11.08%).

WDA II

VA

USA

0%

12.4% 12.2% 12.0% 12.2% 12.1%11.3%

10.9%11.3% 11.5% 11.3% 11.0%

10.5%

7.8% 8.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.1% 7.8%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$46,927

$41,145

$48,396

$49,734

$32,048

$53,424

$49,691

$40,544

$44,844

$46,119

$37,844

$31,311

$36,082

Bland

Carroll

Floyd

Giles

Grayson

Montgomery

Pulaski

Smyth

Washington

Wythe

Bristol

Galax

Radford

Excessive drinking and

smoking, however, are marginally more

common in Region II than the state or

nation. It is important to note that these

health and behavioral issues are only 1 to 2

percentage points more common in Region

II compared to the nation and up to 4

percentage points more common

compared to the state.

WDA II

VA

USA

18%19%

28%

15%17%

28%

17% 17%

31%

Smoking Excessive Drinking Obesity

WDA II VA USA

Annual Poor Health

Days93 83 93

Reported Having Poor

Overall Health 17% 16% 17%

Reported Being

Physically Inactive 26% 22% 27%

Reported Frequent

Distress 12% 11% 12%

For instance, workers

missed up to 10 more days of work than their statewide

counterparts in 2016. At the same time, poor health and physical

inactivity were marginally (1 percentage point) more common in

Region II compared to the state, but were on par or lower than

national averages. Similarly, 26% of people in Region II reported

physical inactivity in 2016, 4 percentage points higher than state

averages but 1 percentage point lower than national averages.

Frequent distress was slightly more common in Region II (1

percentage point) but, again, on par with the national average.

% Without Access to

Healthy Food Options

People to Mental

Health Provider Ratio

People to Primary

Care Physician RatioPeople to Dentist Ratio% Without Access to

Exercise Options

Region II residents, however, have slightly less access to general, mental, and dental

healthcare. For instance, a general practitioner in Region II might serve 360 more patients compared to medical

professionals elsewhere in the state. The same is true for mental health professionals and dentists in Region II,

who serve up to 180 and 910 more patients, respectively.

Source: USDA Food Environment Atlas (2015); ESRI ArcGIS Business Analyst (2016); CMS-National Mental Provider Database (2017); American Medical

Association Health Resources (2016); County Health Rankings: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) (2016); Sources: County Health

Rankings: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2016); CDC Diabetes Interactive Atlas (2014)