Secessionism in the New Europe

Jason SorensUniversity at Buffalo, SUNY

February 21, 2013

Key Questions

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• What is “secessionism” in the European context?• What are the sources of secessionism?• How have central governments responded, and with what

consequences?

• Political & economic uncertainty• Regional institutional development (below and above)• Secessionist demands

• How likely is an actual secession in Europe within the next severalyears?

Key Questions

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• What is “secessionism” in the European context?• What are the sources of secessionism?• How have central governments responded, and with what

consequences?

• Political & economic uncertainty• Regional institutional development (below and above)• Secessionist demands

• How likely is an actual secession in Europe within the next severalyears?

Key Questions

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• What is “secessionism” in the European context?• What are the sources of secessionism?• How have central governments responded, and with what

consequences?

• Political & economic uncertainty• Regional institutional development (below and above)• Secessionist demands

• How likely is an actual secession in Europe within the next severalyears?

Key Questions

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• What is “secessionism” in the European context?• What are the sources of secessionism?• How have central governments responded, and with what

consequences?

• Political & economic uncertainty• Regional institutional development (below and above)• Secessionist demands

• How likely is an actual secession in Europe within the next severalyears?

Key Questions

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• What is “secessionism” in the European context?• What are the sources of secessionism?• How have central governments responded, and with what

consequences?

• Political & economic uncertainty• Regional institutional development (below and above)• Secessionist demands

• How likely is an actual secession in Europe within the next severalyears?

Key Questions

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• What is “secessionism” in the European context?• What are the sources of secessionism?• How have central governments responded, and with what

consequences?

• Political & economic uncertainty• Regional institutional development (below and above)• Secessionist demands

• How likely is an actual secession in Europe within the next severalyears?

Key Questions

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• What is “secessionism” in the European context?• What are the sources of secessionism?• How have central governments responded, and with what

consequences?

• Political & economic uncertainty• Regional institutional development (below and above)• Secessionist demands

• How likely is an actual secession in Europe within the next severalyears?

Conceptualizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• “Secessionist” movement – a movement that supports:

1. “significant” political autonomy for the national group2. a right to self-determination for the national group (independence not

ruled out, contra “regionalism”)

• All secessionism is conditional (e.g., Scottish National Party [SNP],Catalan Convergence and Unity [CiU])

• Autonomy itself is a continuum; “independence” is never unconditional(e.g., European Union member states, Isle of Man, Quebec, BasqueCountry)

Conceptualizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• “Secessionist” movement – a movement that supports:

1. “significant” political autonomy for the national group2. a right to self-determination for the national group (independence not

ruled out, contra “regionalism”)

• All secessionism is conditional (e.g., Scottish National Party [SNP],Catalan Convergence and Unity [CiU])

• Autonomy itself is a continuum; “independence” is never unconditional(e.g., European Union member states, Isle of Man, Quebec, BasqueCountry)

Conceptualizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• “Secessionist” movement – a movement that supports:

1. “significant” political autonomy for the national group2. a right to self-determination for the national group (independence not

ruled out, contra “regionalism”)

• All secessionism is conditional (e.g., Scottish National Party [SNP],Catalan Convergence and Unity [CiU])

• Autonomy itself is a continuum; “independence” is never unconditional(e.g., European Union member states, Isle of Man, Quebec, BasqueCountry)

Conceptualizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• “Secessionist” movement – a movement that supports:

1. “significant” political autonomy for the national group2. a right to self-determination for the national group (independence not

ruled out, contra “regionalism”)

• All secessionism is conditional (e.g., Scottish National Party [SNP],Catalan Convergence and Unity [CiU])

• Autonomy itself is a continuum; “independence” is never unconditional(e.g., European Union member states, Isle of Man, Quebec, BasqueCountry)

Theorizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Minority cultural distinctiveness + territorial concentration → “nation”as fundamental political unit (for some group members)

• Group interests → political status demands

• Fiscal transfers• Population (viability)• Ideological differences• Geographic separation & ports (trade)• Existing autonomy?• Economic conditions?• Demonstration effects?• Policy concessions unlikely to work because of commitment problem

Theorizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Minority cultural distinctiveness + territorial concentration → “nation”as fundamental political unit (for some group members)

• Group interests → political status demands

• Fiscal transfers• Population (viability)• Ideological differences• Geographic separation & ports (trade)• Existing autonomy?• Economic conditions?• Demonstration effects?• Policy concessions unlikely to work because of commitment problem

Theorizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Minority cultural distinctiveness + territorial concentration → “nation”as fundamental political unit (for some group members)

• Group interests → political status demands

• Fiscal transfers• Population (viability)• Ideological differences• Geographic separation & ports (trade)• Existing autonomy?• Economic conditions?• Demonstration effects?• Policy concessions unlikely to work because of commitment problem

Theorizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Minority cultural distinctiveness + territorial concentration → “nation”as fundamental political unit (for some group members)

• Group interests → political status demands

• Fiscal transfers• Population (viability)• Ideological differences• Geographic separation & ports (trade)• Existing autonomy?• Economic conditions?• Demonstration effects?• Policy concessions unlikely to work because of commitment problem

Theorizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Minority cultural distinctiveness + territorial concentration → “nation”as fundamental political unit (for some group members)

• Group interests → political status demands

• Fiscal transfers• Population (viability)• Ideological differences• Geographic separation & ports (trade)• Existing autonomy?• Economic conditions?• Demonstration effects?• Policy concessions unlikely to work because of commitment problem

Theorizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Minority cultural distinctiveness + territorial concentration → “nation”as fundamental political unit (for some group members)

• Group interests → political status demands

• Fiscal transfers• Population (viability)• Ideological differences• Geographic separation & ports (trade)• Existing autonomy?• Economic conditions?• Demonstration effects?• Policy concessions unlikely to work because of commitment problem

Theorizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Minority cultural distinctiveness + territorial concentration → “nation”as fundamental political unit (for some group members)

• Group interests → political status demands

• Fiscal transfers• Population (viability)• Ideological differences• Geographic separation & ports (trade)• Existing autonomy?• Economic conditions?• Demonstration effects?• Policy concessions unlikely to work because of commitment problem

Theorizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Minority cultural distinctiveness + territorial concentration → “nation”as fundamental political unit (for some group members)

• Group interests → political status demands

• Fiscal transfers• Population (viability)• Ideological differences• Geographic separation & ports (trade)• Existing autonomy?• Economic conditions?• Demonstration effects?• Policy concessions unlikely to work because of commitment problem

Theorizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Minority cultural distinctiveness + territorial concentration → “nation”as fundamental political unit (for some group members)

• Group interests → political status demands

• Fiscal transfers• Population (viability)• Ideological differences• Geographic separation & ports (trade)• Existing autonomy?• Economic conditions?• Demonstration effects?• Policy concessions unlikely to work because of commitment problem

Theorizing Secessionism

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Minority cultural distinctiveness + territorial concentration → “nation”as fundamental political unit (for some group members)

• Group interests → political status demands

• Fiscal transfers• Population (viability)• Ideological differences• Geographic separation & ports (trade)• Existing autonomy?• Economic conditions?• Demonstration effects?• Policy concessions unlikely to work because of commitment problem

Central Government Responses

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Decentralization

• Partisan logic: office-holding value versus electoral value (e.g., Britain,Spain, Italy, Belgium, France)

• Referendums and the “right to decide”

• Canada, Britain, Belgium vs. France, Spain, Italy• Global evidence• Political & economic uncertainty• Unlikelihood of success

• European Union issues

• “Europe of the regions”• Right to join EU

Central Government Responses

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Decentralization

• Partisan logic: office-holding value versus electoral value (e.g., Britain,Spain, Italy, Belgium, France)

• Referendums and the “right to decide”

• Canada, Britain, Belgium vs. France, Spain, Italy• Global evidence• Political & economic uncertainty• Unlikelihood of success

• European Union issues

• “Europe of the regions”• Right to join EU

Central Government Responses

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Decentralization

• Partisan logic: office-holding value versus electoral value (e.g., Britain,Spain, Italy, Belgium, France)

• Referendums and the “right to decide”

• Canada, Britain, Belgium vs. France, Spain, Italy• Global evidence• Political & economic uncertainty• Unlikelihood of success

• European Union issues

• “Europe of the regions”• Right to join EU

Central Government Responses

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Decentralization

• Partisan logic: office-holding value versus electoral value (e.g., Britain,Spain, Italy, Belgium, France)

• Referendums and the “right to decide”

• Canada, Britain, Belgium vs. France, Spain, Italy• Global evidence• Political & economic uncertainty• Unlikelihood of success

• European Union issues

• “Europe of the regions”• Right to join EU

Central Government Responses

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Decentralization

• Partisan logic: office-holding value versus electoral value (e.g., Britain,Spain, Italy, Belgium, France)

• Referendums and the “right to decide”

• Canada, Britain, Belgium vs. France, Spain, Italy• Global evidence• Political & economic uncertainty• Unlikelihood of success

• European Union issues

• “Europe of the regions”• Right to join EU

Central Government Responses

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Decentralization

• Partisan logic: office-holding value versus electoral value (e.g., Britain,Spain, Italy, Belgium, France)

• Referendums and the “right to decide”

• Canada, Britain, Belgium vs. France, Spain, Italy• Global evidence• Political & economic uncertainty• Unlikelihood of success

• European Union issues

• “Europe of the regions”• Right to join EU

Central Government Responses

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Decentralization

• Partisan logic: office-holding value versus electoral value (e.g., Britain,Spain, Italy, Belgium, France)

• Referendums and the “right to decide”

• Canada, Britain, Belgium vs. France, Spain, Italy• Global evidence• Political & economic uncertainty• Unlikelihood of success

• European Union issues

• “Europe of the regions”• Right to join EU

Central Government Responses

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Decentralization

• Partisan logic: office-holding value versus electoral value (e.g., Britain,Spain, Italy, Belgium, France)

• Referendums and the “right to decide”

• Canada, Britain, Belgium vs. France, Spain, Italy• Global evidence• Political & economic uncertainty• Unlikelihood of success

• European Union issues

• “Europe of the regions”• Right to join EU

Central Government Responses

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Decentralization

• Partisan logic: office-holding value versus electoral value (e.g., Britain,Spain, Italy, Belgium, France)

• Referendums and the “right to decide”

• Canada, Britain, Belgium vs. France, Spain, Italy• Global evidence• Political & economic uncertainty• Unlikelihood of success

• European Union issues

• “Europe of the regions”• Right to join EU

Central Government Responses

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Decentralization

• Partisan logic: office-holding value versus electoral value (e.g., Britain,Spain, Italy, Belgium, France)

• Referendums and the “right to decide”

• Canada, Britain, Belgium vs. France, Spain, Italy• Global evidence• Political & economic uncertainty• Unlikelihood of success

• European Union issues

• “Europe of the regions”• Right to join EU

Central Government Responses

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Decentralization

• Partisan logic: office-holding value versus electoral value (e.g., Britain,Spain, Italy, Belgium, France)

• Referendums and the “right to decide”

• Canada, Britain, Belgium vs. France, Spain, Italy• Global evidence• Political & economic uncertainty• Unlikelihood of success

• European Union issues

• “Europe of the regions”• Right to join EU

Current Challenges

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Scotland• Catalonia• Basque Country• Flanders• Faroes• Corsica

Scotland

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Strong ideological motivations for independence, weak economicinterest

• Polls show 2014 referendum likely to fail• SNP remains popular

Scotland

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Strong ideological motivations for independence, weak economicinterest

• Polls show 2014 referendum likely to fail• SNP remains popular

Scotland

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Strong ideological motivations for independence, weak economicinterest

• Polls show 2014 referendum likely to fail• SNP remains popular

Catalonia

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Strong economic interest in independence• Pro-independence left-right coalition (Republican Left-CiU)• CiU divided• Central government intransigent

Catalonia

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Strong economic interest in independence• Pro-independence left-right coalition (Republican Left-CiU)• CiU divided• Central government intransigent

Catalonia

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Strong economic interest in independence• Pro-independence left-right coalition (Republican Left-CiU)• CiU divided• Central government intransigent

Catalonia

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Strong economic interest in independence• Pro-independence left-right coalition (Republican Left-CiU)• CiU divided• Central government intransigent

Basque Country

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Modest economic interest in independence, given fiscal autonomy• “Free association” referendum controversy• Secular decline in secessionist support

Basque Country

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Modest economic interest in independence, given fiscal autonomy• “Free association” referendum controversy• Secular decline in secessionist support

Basque Country

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Modest economic interest in independence, given fiscal autonomy• “Free association” referendum controversy• Secular decline in secessionist support

Flanders

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Strong ideological and moderate economic interest in independence• Brussels remains sticky wicket• Constitutional rules weaken central government, but also soften

Flemish Christian Democrats’ resolve• Cordon sanitaire has precluded independentist regional coalition, but

that may change

Flanders

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Strong ideological and moderate economic interest in independence• Brussels remains sticky wicket• Constitutional rules weaken central government, but also soften

Flemish Christian Democrats’ resolve• Cordon sanitaire has precluded independentist regional coalition, but

that may change

Flanders

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Strong ideological and moderate economic interest in independence• Brussels remains sticky wicket• Constitutional rules weaken central government, but also soften

Flemish Christian Democrats’ resolve• Cordon sanitaire has precluded independentist regional coalition, but

that may change

Flanders

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Strong ideological and moderate economic interest in independence• Brussels remains sticky wicket• Constitutional rules weaken central government, but also soften

Flemish Christian Democrats’ resolve• Cordon sanitaire has precluded independentist regional coalition, but

that may change

Faroes

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Modest economic interest in independence• Independence coalition (1998-2002) lost nerve and popular support• Accommodating central government

Faroes

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Modest economic interest in independence• Independence coalition (1998-2002) lost nerve and popular support• Accommodating central government

Faroes

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Modest economic interest in independence• Independence coalition (1998-2002) lost nerve and popular support• Accommodating central government

Corsica

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Modest economic interest in independence• Fragmented, often violent nationalist movement• Ideological polarization makes even autonomy unlikely (defeated

referendum, 2005)• Low-level violence and polarization likely to continue

Corsica

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Modest economic interest in independence• Fragmented, often violent nationalist movement• Ideological polarization makes even autonomy unlikely (defeated

referendum, 2005)• Low-level violence and polarization likely to continue

Corsica

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Modest economic interest in independence• Fragmented, often violent nationalist movement• Ideological polarization makes even autonomy unlikely (defeated

referendum, 2005)• Low-level violence and polarization likely to continue

Corsica

University of Texas Secession Symposium Secessionism in the New Europe

• Modest economic interest in independence• Fragmented, often violent nationalist movement• Ideological polarization makes even autonomy unlikely (defeated

referendum, 2005)• Low-level violence and polarization likely to continue

Key QuestionsConceptualizing SecessionismTheorizing SecessionismCentral Government ResponsesCurrent ChallengesScotlandCataloniaBasque CountryFlandersFaroesCorsica