seb report: commodities could still move higher

8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodities could still move higher

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March 8, 2011

Bjarne Schieldrop (Chief Commodity Analyst) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30Filip Petersson (Commodity Strategist) [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47

SEB Commodities MonthlyRed lights flashing - volatility ahead

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General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • Commodity prices are now at red hot levels, but could be

propelled even higher by the current strong OECD recovery• Many commodity prices are stretched way above long term

marginal costs, thus expect increasing volatility ahead•

Higher commodity prices are increasingly putting the globalrecovery at risk with a potential contraction down the road

Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • We raise our 2011 average Brent price forecast to $96/b due to a

strong US recovery in combination with the MENA crisis• If Gaddafi is toppled quickly the oil price will fall back, but a

smaller MENA risk premium will continue to linger• There is a clear risk that Libya will experience an extended civil

war during which the oil price could trade close to $120/b• If MENA contagion takes place with unrest in other large oil

producing countries, the oil price could surpass the 2008 high

Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • Likely further Chinese efforts to curb inflation and lowered growth

targets in the 2011-2015 five year plan cool down sectorsentiment to some extent

• However, tight supply, pre-summer restocking and solid globalexpansion is likely to support elevated prices

• A prolonged MENA crisis is likely to have a negative impact onindustrial metals demand through lowered global growthexpectations

Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • We remain bullish gold as the MENA crisis continues and the

European sovereign debt crisis approaches another decisivemoment

• Despite commodity driven inflation, central banks may continue to

refrain from hiking interest rates in order for the recovery toconsolidate further, thus creating an even more favourableenvironment for gold

• Exceptionally strong physical silver demand has made COMEXinventories fall to post-2006 lows and has pushed the futurescurve into backwardation

Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M • Evidence that the current La Niña event has passed its peak and

started to weaken are growing stronger• We expect 2011 and the second half in particular to be dominated

by rising production estimates and falling prices in general• However, for several crops both more acreage and favourable

crop development conditions are needed in order to start buildinginventories again

Arrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specified period.

N

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices (price indices, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)=

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

jan-10

feb-10

mar-10

apr-10

maj-10

jun-10

jul-10

aug-10

sep-10

okt-10

nov-10

dec-10

jan-11

feb-11

mar-11

Industrial Metals

Precious Metals

Energy

Agriculture

=Sector performance last month (MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Equities

Commodities

Energy

Industrial

metals

Precious

metals

Agriculture

YTD (%) MoM (%)

Winners & Losers last month (closing prices, %)=

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

18

22

US Nat. Gas

Wheat

Sugar

Soybeans

Palladium

PlatinumSteel

Copper

Lead

Aluminium

CO2 (EUA)Zinc

Power, Cont.WTI

Gold

Nickel

US Heat. OilTin

Power, NordicCorn

US Gasoline

Brent

Coffe, Arabica

Cocoa

Silver

Cotton

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SEB Commodity Research

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~= ãçêÉ= ëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ= TBI= áå= íìêå= êÉÇìÅáåÖ= çìê=äçåÖ=íÉêã=çáä=ÇÉã~åÇ=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=ëäáÖÜíäóK==eáëíçêáÅ~ääóI= êÉÅÉëëáçåë= Ü~îÉ= ~äï~óë= ÑçääçïÉÇ=çáä= éêáÅÉ= ëÜçÅâëK= eçïÉîÉêI= ~äíÜçìÖÜ= çáä= éêáÅÉë=Ü~îÉ=ê~ääáÉÇ=ãçêÉ=íÜÉå=OPB=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=ä~ëí=óÉ~êI=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ= íç=íÜÉ=jbk^=ÅêáëáëI=ïÉ=Ü~îÉ=Ü~êÇäó=êÉ~ÅÜÉÇ=ëìÅÜ=~=ëáíì~íáçå=àìëí=óÉíI=~ë=íÜáë=ïçìäÇ= íóéáÅ~ääó= êÉèìáêÉ= éêáÅÉë= íç= ê~éáÇäó=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=Äó=~í=äÉ~ëí=NMMBK=píáääI=ÅìêêÉåí=ÅêìÇÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉë=êÉéêÉëÉåí=~=ÜÉ~îó=ÄìêÇÉå=Ñçê=íÜÉ=lb`aÛë=ëíáää=êÉä~íáîÉäó=Ñê~ÖáäÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=êÉÅçîÉêóK=o~íÜÉê=íÜ~å=ëìÖÖÉëí=~=ëéÉÅáÑáÅ=äÉîÉä=Éñáëíë=~í=ïÜáÅÜ=íÜÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=Ü~ë=~=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅí=çå=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÖêçïíÜI=ïÉ=~êÖìÉ=áåëíÉ~Ç=íÜ~í=~=Öê~Çì~ä=éêçÅÉëë=Éñáëíë=

Äó=ïÜáÅÜ=ÉîÉêó=ANMLÄ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áå=íÜÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=êÉÇìÅÉë=~ååì~ä=ÖäçÄ~ä=dam=ÖêçïíÜ=Äó=MKNJMKOB=EíÜÉ= rp= cÉÇÉê~ä= oÉëÉêîÉ= Éëíáã~íÉë= MKOBFK=qÜÉêÉÑçêÉI= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= ~= ãçêÉ=ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~ääó=

àìëíáÑá~ÄäÉ=AVMLÄI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=éêáÅÉ=çÑ=ANNTLÄI=áÑ=ëìëí~áåÉÇI=ëÜçìäÇ=êÉÇìÅÉ=ÖêçïíÜ=ïçêäÇïáÇÉ=Äó=~ë= ãìÅÜ= ~ë= MKRBK= eçïÉîÉêI= áÑ= áí= ÅçåíáåìÉë=ìéï~êÇë= íçï~êÇë= ~åÇ=êÉã~áåë= ~êçìåÇ= ANRMLÄ=Ñçê= ~å= ÉñíÉåÇÉÇ= éÉêáçÇI= ïÉ= ïçìäÇ= ÉñéÉÅí=ëÉêáçìë=ÉÑÑÉÅíë=çå=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÖêçïíÜK==jbk^= ìåêÉëí= ÄÉÖ~å= ÇêáîáåÖ= ÅêìÇÉ= çáä= éêáÅÉë=ÜáÖÜÉê=áå=g~åì~êóI=ïáíÜ=qìåáëá~å=éêÉëáÇÉåí=_Éå=^äá= ÄÉÅçãáåÖ= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= ~ìíçÅê~í= íç= Ñ~ää= çå=g~åì~êó= NQK= fåëéáêÉÇ= Äó= qìåáëá~= íÜÉ= ìéêáëáåÖ=ëéêÉ~Ç=íÜêçìÖÜçìí= íÜÉ=êÉÖáçå= ÖÉåÉê~ääó=~åÇ=íç=

bÖóéí= áå= é~êíáÅìä~ê= ïÜÉêÉ= íÜÉ= íÜêÉ~í= íç=bìêçéÉ~å= çáä= ëìééäó= íÜêçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= pìÉò= `~å~ä=~åÇ= íÜÉ= prjba=éáéÉäáåÉ= ~ë= ïÉää= ~ë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=êáëâ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ìéêáëáåÖ=ïçìäÇ=ëéêÉ~Ç=íç=ã~àçê=çáä=éêçÇìÅÉêë=ÇêçîÉ= _êÉåí= ÅêìÇÉ= ~ÄçîÉ= ANMMLÄ= ~í=íÜÉ= ÉåÇ= çÑ= g~åì~êóK= mêÉëáÇÉåí= eçëåá= jìÄ~ê~â=ÑäÉÇ=bÖóéí=çå=cÉÄêì~êó=NN=äÉ~îáåÖ=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉí=íç=êÉÑçÅìë= çå= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= çáä= éêçÇìÅáåÖ=Åçìåíêó= áå= ïÜáÅÜ= íÜÉ= êÉÖáãÉ= ~ééÉ~êÉÇ= íç= ÄÉ=äçëáåÖ=ÅçåíêçäI=iáÄó~K=tÜÉå=jì~ãã~ê=d~ÇÇ~Ñá=éêçîÉÇ=äÉëë=ïáääáåÖ=íç=äÉ~îÉ=çÑÑáÅÉ=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=Üáë= qìåáëá~å= ~åÇ= bÖóéíá~å= ÅçìåíÉêé~êíáÉëI= íÜÉ=

ëáíì~íáçå= ê~éáÇäó= ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇ= áåíç= Åáîáä= ï~ê=ïáíÜ= ~êãó= ìåáíë= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó= àçáåáåÖ= íÜÉ=çééçëáíáçå= ~åÇ= äçó~äáëíë= ÄÉáåÖ= ÑçêÅÉÇ= Ä~Åâ= çå=íÜÉ=Å~éáí~ä=qêáéçäáK=`çåëÉèìÉåíäóI=çáä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=ä~êÖÉäó= ÖêçìåÇ= íç= ~= Ü~äí= ~ë= ÑçêÉáÖå= éÉêëçååÉä=ïÉêÉ=Éî~Åì~íÉÇK=^í=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=cÉÄêì~êóI=p~ìÇá=^ê~Äá~=ÄÉÖ~å=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=éêçÇìÅíáçå=íç=ãÉÉí=íÜÉ=iáÄó~å=éêçÇìÅíáçå=ëÜçêíÑ~ääK===få= cÉÄêì~êóI= íÜÉ= _êÉåíJtqf= ëéêÉ~Ç= íê~ÇÉÇ= ~ë=ÜáÖÜ= ~ë= ANVKQULÄI= ÇìÉ= íç= áåëìÑÑáÅáÉåí=áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ= íç= íê~åëéçêí= ÅêìÇÉ= çáä= Ñêçã=

`ìëÜáåÖI= íÜÉ= éêáÅáåÖ= éçáåí= Ñçê= tqfI= íç=ÅçåëìãÉêëK= fåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= áåÑäçïëI= íóéáÅ~ääó= Ñêçã=çáä= ÑáÉäÇë= áå= kçêíÜ= a~âçí~= ~åÇ= `~å~Çá~å= çáä=ë~åÇëI= Éñ~ÅÉêÄ~íÉÇ= çîÉêëìééäó= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäóK=aìÉ= íç= áåëìÑÑáÅáÉåí= çìíÄçìåÇ= áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=ÅêìÇÉ=çáä=ãìëí=ÄÉ=íê~åëéçêíÉÇ=Äó=ê~áä=~åÇ=êç~Ç=íç= êÉÑáåÉêë= áå= íÜÉ= dìäÑ= çÑ= jÉñáÅçI= ïÜáÅÜ= áë=ÅçëíäóK= qÜÉêÉÑçêÉI= ëéçí= éêáÅÉë= áå= içìáëá~å~= ~êÉ=ÅìêêÉåíäó= áå= äáåÉ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉáê= _êÉåí=ÅçìåíÉêé~êíëK=mêçàÉÅíë= íç= áãéêçîÉ= çìíÄçìåÇ= áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=Ñêçã=`ìëÜáåÖ=~êÉ=éä~ååÉÇ=Äìí=~êÉ=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êë=Ñêçã=ÅçãéäÉíáçåK==

qç= ëìãã~êáëÉ= ã~àçê= çáä= ã~êâÉí= êÉéçêíë= áå=cÉÄêì~êó= ïÉ= ÅçåÅäìÇÉ= íÜ~í= ÇÉã~åÇ= êÉîáëáçåë=




P

ïÉêÉ= ÄìääáëÜ= ~Åêçëë= íÜÉ= Äç~êÇK= qÜÉ=bf^=ÄÉÖ~å=Äó= ê~áëáåÖ= OMNM= ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó=NRM= âÄLÇ= íç=USKTO=ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= OMNN= ÇÉã~åÇ=Äó= NQM=âÄLÇ=íç= UUKNS=ãÄLÇK= qÜÉ= fb^= ÑçääçïÉÇ= ëìáíI= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= OMNM=ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= VM= âÄLÇ= íç= UTKUM= ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= OMNN=ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= NQM= âÄLÇ= íç= UVKPM= ãÄLÇK= lmb =̀

ìéÖê~ÇÉÇ= OMNM= ÇÉã~åÇ= Äó= ORM= âÄLÇ= íç= USKPQ=ãÄLÇ= ~åÇ= OMNN= ÇÉã~åÇ=Äó= QOM=âÄLÇ=íç= UTKTQ=ãÄLÇK= dÉåÉê~ääóI= êÉîáëáçåë= ïÉêÉ= ÇìÉ= íç= ãçêÉ=éçëáíáîÉ=îáÉïë=çå=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÖêçïíÜK=^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=fb^I=çáä=ëìééäó=êçëÉ=RMM=âÄLÇ=áå=g~åì~êó=íç=UUKRM= ãÄLÇK= fí= ï~ë= ~äëç= êÉéçêíÉÇ= íÜ~í= lmb`=ÉÑÑÉÅíáîÉ= ëé~êÉ= Å~é~Åáíó= ï~ë= QKT= ãÄLÇK= lb`a=áåÇìëíêó=ëíçÅâë=ÑÉää=íç=~=OJóÉ~ê=äçï=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=Äìí= êÉã~áå= îÉêó= ÜáÖÜ= Ñêçã= ~å= ÜáëíçêáÅ~ä=éÉêëéÉÅíáîÉK==

Monthly global demand estimates = 2010

(mb/d)

Revision

(kb/d)

2011

(mb/d)

Revision

(kb/d)IEA 87.80 +90 89.30 +140

EIA 86.72 +150 88.16 +140

OPEC 86.34 +250 87.74 +420

=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~å~äóëáë= ENNMPMPFW=qÜÉ=ÑçêãÉê=íçé=äáåÉ=~åÇ= íÜÉ=ãáÇJê~åÖÉLãáÇJÄçÇó= ~í= ~êçìåÇ= ANMSJNNNLÄ=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ïçêâ=~ë=íÜÉ=éêáã~êó=ëìééçêíJ~êÉ~=ïÜáäÉ=çîÉêÜÉ~Ç= cáÄç= éêçàÉÅíáçåLêÉíê~ÅÉãÉåí= ~í= ANONKRMJNOPKRMLÄ= áë= íÜÉ= ~ííê~Åíáçå= ~êÉ~= ëÜçìäÇ= íÜÉ= êÉÅÉåí=ANNVKUMLÄ= ÜáÖÜ= óáÉäÇ= íç= ÄìóáåÖ= éêÉëëìêÉK=^ÄëÉåí= ~=Ü~äí=áå=íÜÉ=äçï=ANOMëI=íÜÉêÉ=áë=êáëâ=çÑ=~å=ÉñíÉåëáçå=íçï~êÇë=íÜÉ=OMMU=ANQTKRMLÄ=éÉ~âK=

=kçêÇáÅ=mçïÉê

==

cÉÄêì~êó=ï~ë=~Ö~áå=ÅçäÇ=ïáíÜ=ÜáÖÜI=ëí~ÄäÉ=ëéçí=éêáÅÉëK=aÉëéáíÉ=äçï=íÉãéÉê~íìêÉë=íÜÉêÉ=ïÉêÉ=åç=éêáÅÉ= ëéáâÉë= ÇìÉ= íç= ÜáÖÜ= åìÅäÉ~ê= éçïÉê=~î~áä~Äáäáíó= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= ~ÄëÉåÅÉ= çÑ= ÄçííäÉåÉÅâë= çê=éêçÄäÉãë= áå= íÜÉ= íê~åëãáëëáçå= ÖêáÇK=píêçåÖ= ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉë= ëìééçêíÉÇ=ÄçíÜ= äçåÖÉê= kçêÇáÅ= Åçåíê~Åíë=~åÇ=ÅçåíáåÉåí~ä=éçïÉê=ã~êâÉíë=ïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=ïÉ~â=ÜóÇêç= Ä~ä~åÅÉ= íçÖÉíÜÉê= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= ÅçäÇ= ïÉ~íÜÉê=ÉåëìêÉÇ=~=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ÜáÖÜ=éêçãéí=ÅìêîÉK==

=póëíÉã= ëéçí= éêáÅÉë= áå=cÉÄêì~êó=~îÉê~ÖÉÇ= bro=SQKQSLjtÜ= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= pïÉÇáëÜ= éêáÅÉ= ~êÉ~= àìëí=~ÄçîÉ= ~í= bro= SQKSRLjtÜK= ^= ÜìÖÉ= éêÉãáìã=ëíáää=Éñáëíë=áå=íÜÉ=kçêÇáÅ=ëéçí=ã~êâÉí=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=áíë=bìêçéÉ~å=éÉÉêI=ïáíÜ=dÉêã~å=ëéçí=éêáÅÉë=~îÉê~ÖáåÖ= bro= RMKUSLjtÜ= ÇìêáåÖ= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ=éÉêáçÇK=kçêÇáÅ=éêçÇìÅÉêë=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=éêáÅÉ=íÜÉáê=ï~íÉê= ÜáÖÜäóI= ÇêáîáåÖ= éêáÅÉë= çÑ= ÜóÇêç= éçïÉê=ÖÉåÉê~íáçå=ï~ó=~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ=Åçëí=çÑ=Åç~ä=ÖÉåÉê~íÉÇ=éçïÉêK==

få= íÜÉ= Ñçêï~êÇ= ã~êâÉí= íÜÉ= ÅìêîÉ= êÉã~áåë= áå=ëíêçåÖ= Ä~Åâï~êÇ~íáçå= ÑçääçïáåÖ= íÜÉ= ÅçäÇ=ïáåíÉêK= nOJNN= Ö~áåÉÇ= bro= PKTRLjtÜ= áå=

cÉÄêì~êó= íç= ÅäçëÉ= ~í= bro= RQKPMLjtÜ= çå= íÜÉ=ä~ëí=Ç~ó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=ïÜáäÉ=voJNO=Ö~áåÉÇ=bro=NKQMLjtÜ= íç= ÅäçëÉ= ~í= bro= QTKTRLjtÜK= tÉ=ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= éêçãéí= éêáÅÉë= íç= ÅçãÉ= Ççïå= çîÉê=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÑÉï=ãçåíÜëI=Äìí=çåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=ëÉ~ëçå~ääó=Ñ~ääáåÖ=Åçåëìãéíáçå=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=~ÇîÉåí=çÑ=ëéêáåÖK=

eçïÉîÉêI= ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë= êÉã~áå= ÉñíêÉãÉäó=êçÄìëí=ïáíÜ=~=ä~êÖÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áå=íÜÉ=ÜóÇêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=EÅìêêÉåíäó=JQP=qtÜF=~åÇ=îÉêó=ëíêçåÖ=ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉëK=iççâáåÖ= ~í= íÜÉ= ÅìêîÉI= ÜÉÇÖáåÖ= äççâë= ãçëí=~ííê~ÅíáîÉ= Ñêçã= voJNO= ~åÇ= çìíI= ÉëéÉÅá~ääó= Ñçê=pïÉÇáëÜ=ÅçåëìãÉêë=ÖáîÉå=íÜÉ=ëíêçåÖ=pbhK==




Q

CRUDE OIL=

Crude oil price (NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)=

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120130

140

150

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

NYMEX WTI

ICE Brent

=

US crude oil inventories (DOE, mb, weekly data)=

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

j f m a m j j a s o n d

2006-2010 avg.

2010

2011

=

OIL PRODUCTS=

Gasoline and heating oil prices (NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, weekly closing)=

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

NYMEX Gasoline

NYMEX Heating oil

=

Gasoline and distillate inventories (DOE, mb, weekly data)=

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

j f m a m j j a s o n d

Gasoline 2006-2010 avg.

Gasoline 2011

Distillate fuel oil 2006-2010 avg.

Distillate fuel oil 2011

=

POWER=

Nordic power price (Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Continental power price (EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

===

`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=




R

CO2 NATURAL GAS=

EUA price (ECX ICE, €/t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

US natural gas prices (NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

==

FUTURES CURVES=

WTI (NYMEX, $/b)=

92

9394

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

jul-14

okt-14

jan-15

apr-15

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

=

Brent (ICE, $/b)=

99100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

jul-14

okt-14

jan-15

apr-15

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

==

Heating oil (NYMEX, ¢/gal)=

270

274

278

282

286

290

294

298

302

306

310

314

318

322

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

11-01-3111-02-28

11-03-04

=

US natural gas (NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=

3,75

4,00

4,25

4,50

4,75

5,00

5,25

5,50

5,75

6,00

6,25

6,50

apr-11

aug-11

dec-11

apr-12

aug-12

dec-12

apr-13

aug-13

dec-13

apr-14

aug-14

dec-14

apr-15

aug-15

dec-15

apr-16

aug-16

dec-16

apr-17

aug-17

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

===





S

=INDUSTRIAL METALS==

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LME prices and inventories last month

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23

45

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Aluminium

Copper

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Lead Ti

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Price (%) Inventories (%)

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EëíêçåÖÉêF= íÜ~å= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= ëìééäó= ÖêçïíÜK=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=~å~äóëáë=ENNMPMPFW =wáåÅ=êÉã~áåë=ê~åÖÉJÄçìåÇ= àìëí= ÄÉäçï= íÜÉ= ~äêÉ~Çó= ãçêÉ= íÜ~å= çåÉ= óÉ~ê=äçåÖ=äáåÉ=çÑ=êÉëáëí~åÅÉK=pÜçêí=íÉêã=ÇÉã~åÇ=Éñáëíë=Äìí=éêáÅÉë= ~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ=Çê~ïå=íçé= äáåÉ=~êÉ=åÉÉÇÉÇ= íç=ÑçêÅÉ=ÄìóÉêë=íç=ëÜçï=ëìÑÑáÅáÉåí=áåáíá~íáîÉ=íç=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉ=íÜÉ=OMNM=AOTPSLí=íçéK=_É~êáëÜäó=ÄêÉ~âáåÖ=ÄÉäçï=íÜÉ=NOJãçåíÜ= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= EAOOVRLíF= ïçìäÇ= äÉëëÉå= íÜÉ=éêçÄ~Äáäáíó= çÑ= ~= ÑêÉëÜ= ÜáÖÜ= ëçãÉïÜÉêÉ= ÄÉíïÉÉå=AOTPTLí=~åÇ=APOTRLíK==

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ëíêçåÖ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=EmjfI=fpjF=áå=cÉÄêì~êóK=jçëí=êÉéçêíë=~åÇ=Ç~í~=ëìééçêí=íÜÉ=îáÉï= íÜ~í= ëíÉÉä= ÇÉã~åÇ= ÅçåíáåìÉë= íç= êÉÅçîÉê=~äçåÖëáÇÉ= íÜÉ= ÖäçÄ~ä= ÉÅçåçãó= ~äíÜçìÖÜ= áí=êÉã~áåë=ìåÅäÉ~ê=íç=ïÜ~í=ÉñíÉåí=ÅìêêÉåí=ÇÉã~åÇ=ïáää= ÄÉ= ã~áåí~áåÉÇK= píÉÉä= éêáÅÉë= Ü~îÉ= êáëÉå=ãìÅÜ= Ñ~ëíÉê= íÜ~å=ëíÉÉä=ê~ï= ã~íÉêá~ä= Åçëíë=ïáíÜ=ãáääë= âÉÉå= íç= çÑÑëÉí= äçëëÉë= çîÉê= íÜÉ= é~ëí= óÉ~êK=jáää= ã~êÖáåë= ~êÉ= ãìÅÜ= ÄÉííÉê= íÜ~å= íÜÉó= Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå= Ñçê= ~= äçåÖ= íáãÉ= ~äíÜçìÖÜ= ïÉëíÉêå=ìíáäáò~íáçå=êÉã~áåë=äçïK=tÉ=ïçìäÇ=ÉñéÉÅí=ãçëí=ëíÉÉä= éêçÇìÅÉêë= íç= ÄÉ= ÅçåëáÇÉêáåÖ= ÑìêíÜÉê=

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áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ= ~åÇ= ÜçìëáåÖ= ~ÑíÉê= êÉÅÉåí= ëÉîÉêÉ=ÑäççÇáåÖK=qÜÉ=êÉÖáçå=áë=ëíáää=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅáåÖ=áíë=ê~áå=~åÇ=ëíçêã= ëÉ~ëçå= ïÜáÅÜ= Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=Éñ~ÖÖÉê~íÉÇ=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=Äó=i~=ká¥~K=tÉ=ÜçéÉ=íÜÉ=ïÉ~íÜÉê= éÜÉåçãÉåçå= ïáää= ïÉ~âÉå= íçï~êÇë=ãáÇJOMNNK=^ìëíê~äá~å=ÅçâáåÖ=Åç~ä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=áë=

ëíáää= ëÉîÉêÉäó= áãé~ÅíÉÇK= tÉ= íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ= ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= ëÉ~ÄçêåÉ= ÅçâáåÖ= Åç~ä= ã~êâÉí= íç=êÉã~áå= îÉêó= íáÖÜí= Ñçê= ã~åó= ãçåíÜë= óÉíK= qÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÉÅçåçãó=ëíáää=Öêçïë=ëíêçåÖäó=ïáíÜ=~=îÉêó=ê~éáÇ=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íáçå= áå=íÜÉ=rp=~åÇ=ëçäáÇ=Ö~áåë=áå=bìêçéÉK= lîÉê~ääI= ïÉ= ã~áåí~áå= ~= éçëáíáîÉ= îáÉï=çå=ëíÉÉä=éêáÅÉ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë=ÖçáåÖ=Ñçêï~êÇ=ïáíÜ=ëíê~áåë= áå= áêçå= çêÉ=~åÇ= ÅçâáåÖ= Åç~ä= çå=íÜÉ= çåÉ=Ü~åÇ=~åÇ=êáëáåÖ=ÇÉã~åÇ=çå=íÜÉ=çíÜÉêK=_~ëÉÇ=çå=ÅìêêÉåí= éçëáíáîÉ= ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë= áå= bìêçéÉ= ïÉ=ÉñéÉÅí=qìêâáëÜ=ãáääë=íç=êÉíìêå=çå=íÜÉ=Äìó=ëáÇÉI=äáãáíáåÖ= ÑìêíÜÉê= ÇçïåëáÇÉ= áå= bìêçéÉ~å= ëÅê~é=

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V

ALUMINIUM=

Aluminium price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Aluminium inventories (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

SHFE

COMEXLME

==

COPPER=

Copper price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Copper inventories (LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

SHFE

COMEX

LME

=

NICKEL=

Nickel price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

3500040000

45000

50000

55000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Nickel inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

===





NM

ZINC=

Zinc price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Zinc inventories (LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

1100000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

SHFE

LME

=

LEAD=

Lead price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Lead inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

200000

225000

250000

275000

300000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

TIN=

Tin price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

24000

27000

30000

33000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Tin inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

===





NN

STEEL=

Steel price (LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

550

575

600

625

650

jan-09

mar-09

maj-09

jul-09

sep-09

nov-09

jan-10

mar-10

maj-10

jul-10

sep-10

nov-10

jan-11

mar-11

=

Steel inventories (LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

jul-08

sep-08

nov-08

jan-09

mar-09

maj-09

jul-09

sep-09

nov-09

jan-10

mar-10

maj-10

jul-10

sep-10

nov-10

jan-11

=

FUTURES CURVES=

Aluminium (LME, $/t)=

2500

2525

25502575

2600

2625

2650

2675

2700

2725

2750

2775

2800

2825

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

jun-14

sep-14

dec-14

mar-15

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

=

Copper (LME, $/t)=

8300

8400

850086008700

8800

89009000

9100

9200

93009400

9500

9600

97009800

9900

10000

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

jun-14

sep-14

dec-14

mar-15

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

==

Nickel (LME, $/t)=

22500

23000

23500

24000

24500

25000

25500

2600026500

27000

27500

28000

28500

29000

29500

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

jun-14

sep-14

dec-14

mar-15

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

=

Zinc (LME, $/t)=

2325

2350

2375

2400

2425

2450

2475

2500

2525

2550

2575

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

jun-14

sep-14

dec-14

mar-15

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

===

`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ




NO

=PRECIOUS METALS==

få= çêÇÉê= íç= ÇêáîÉ= ÖçäÇ= éêáÅÉë= ÉîÉå= ÜáÖÜÉêI=éçäáíáÅ~ä= áåëí~Äáäáíó= áå= jbk =̂ ãìëí= ÉáíÜÉê=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= ÑìêíÜÉê= çê= êÉã~áå=ÜáÖÜ= äçåÖ= ÉåçìÖÜ=Ñçê= ëíêçåÖÉê= çáä= éêáÅÉë= íç= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó= ëäçï=

lbà= êÉÅçîÉêóK= `ìêêÉåí= áåÇáÅ~íáçåë= ëìÖÖÉëí=íÜÉ= Åêáëáë= Ü~ë= åçí= óÉí= éÉ~âÉÇK= tÉ= íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=êÉã~áå=ÄìääáëÜ=Ñêçã=~=í~ÅíáÅ~ä=éÉêëéÉÅíáîÉK=qÜÉ=ãçëí= ÄìääáëÜ= ëÅÉå~êáç= ïçìäÇ= áåîçäîÉ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= ìåêÉëí= áå= p~ìÇá= ^ê~Äá~I= fê~å= çê=^äÖÉêá~K=^ÇÇáíáçå~ä= ëìééçêí= áë=éêçîáÇÉÇ=Äó=~=êÉåÉïÉÇ= ÑçÅìë= çå= bìêçéÉ~å= ëçîÉêÉáÖå= ÇÉÄí=éêáçê= íç= íÜÉ= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= ä~íÉ= j~êÅÜ= ÇÉÅáëáçå= íç=ÇçìÄäÉ= íÜÉ= äÉåÇáåÖ=Å~é~Åáíó=çÑ= íÜÉ=bìêçéÉ~å=cáå~åÅá~ä= pí~Äáäáíó= c~ÅáäáíóI= ïÜáÅÜ= äççâë=åÉÅÉëë~êóK= tÉ= ~äëç= ÉñéÉÅí= `ÜáåÉëÉ= áåÑä~íáçå=ÜÉÇÖáåÖ=ÇÉã~åÇ= íç= êÉã~áå=ëíêçåÖK=qÜÉêÉ= ~êÉ=

ÜçïÉîÉê= ~äëç= ÄÉ~êáëÜ= Ñ~Åíçêë= ÜçäÇáåÖ= Ä~Åâ=ÖçäÇK=mçëáíáîÉ=lbà=Ç~í~=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=ëìÖÖÉëí=íÜÉ= ÉÅçåçãáÅ= êÉÅçîÉêó= êÉã~áåë= çå= íê~ÅâK=cìêíÜÉêI= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ~ìíÜçêáíáÉë= ëç= Ñ~ê=~ééÉ~ê= íç=Ü~îÉ= ëìÅÅÉÉÇÉÇ=áå=ÅççäáåÖ= íÜÉ=äçÅ~ä= ÉÅçåçãó=ïáíÜçìí= íêáÖÖÉêáåÖ= ~= Ü~êÇ= ä~åÇáåÖK= lìê=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ=îáÉï=~äëç=êÉã~áåë=ÄìääáëÜ=~ë=~=êÉëìäí=çÑ= íÜêÉ~íÉåáåÖ= ÖäçÄ~ä= áåÑä~íáçå= ÇìÉ= íç= ÜáÖÜ=äáèìáÇáíóI= ÇÉã~åÇ= Ñêçã= ^ëá~å= ÅçìåíêáÉëI=áåíÉêÉëí= Ñêçã= ÅÉåíê~ä= Ä~åâÛë= ëÉÉâáåÖ= íç=ÇáîÉêëáÑóI=~åÇ=lbà=ëçîÉêÉáÖå=ÇÉÄíK=eáÖÜ=çáä=éêáÅÉë= ÅçìäÇ= ~äëç= éçëíéçåÉ= éä~ååÉÇ= áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë= ÖáîÉå= íÜÉ=ÇçïåëáÇÉ=éêÉëëìêÉ= íÜÉó=

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dêÉÉÅÉ=~åÇ=fêÉä~åÇ=ÉîÉå=áÑ=Ñçê=çåäó=íïç=ïÉÉâëK=mêÉëëìêÉ=íç=~ÅÅÉéí=ÄÉáåÖ=Ä~áäÉÇ=çìí=áë=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖK=eçïÉîÉêI=~ë=íÜÉ=ÇÉÅáëáçå=íç=Éñé~åÇ=bcpc=äÉåÇáåÖ=Å~é~Åáíó=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=~í=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=j~êÅÜI= ëìÅÜ= ~= êÉèìÉëí= ã~ó= éêçÄ~Ääó= åçí= ÄÉ=ã~ÇÉ=íáää=~ÑíÉêï~êÇëK=tçêêáÉë=~êÉ=~äëç=ÄìáäÇáåÖ=íÜ~í=fêÉä~åÇ=ã~ó=åÉÉÇ=~=ÑìêíÜÉê=ëìééçêíK==`çããçÇáíó=éêáÅÉ= ÇêáîÉå= áåÑä~íáçå= áë=ÄÉÅçãáåÖ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= Ñçê= íÜÉ= lbà= ÉîÉå=íÜçìÖÜ= ÅÉåíê~ä= Ä~åâë= ~êÉ= ëíáää= ãçåáíçêáåÖ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë= ê~íÜÉê= íÜ~å= ~Åíì~ääó= ê~áëáåÖ=

áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉëI= ÜçéáåÖ= áåëíÉ~Ç= íÜ~í=íÜÉ= éêçÄäÉã=áë=íÉãéçê~êóK==

lìíÑäçï= Ñêçã= éÜóëáÅ~ä= ÖçäÇ= bqc= ÜçäÇáåÖë=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= áå= cÉÄêì~êó= Äìí= ~í= ~= ãìÅÜ= äçïÉê=äÉîÉä= íÜ~å= áå= g~åì~êóK= qçí~ä= ÜçäÇáåÖë= Ü~îÉ=ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=NR=íçååÉë=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=g~åì~êó=~åÇ=

åçï= ëí~åÇ= ~í= OMNS= íçååÉë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= ~=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=êÉÅçêÇ=ÜáÖÜ=çÑ=ONNR=íçååÉëK==páäîÉê=Ü~ë=ê~ääáÉÇ=ÉîÉå=ãçêÉ=ëíêçåÖäó=íÜ~å=ÖçäÇI=Ö~áåáåÖ= ~= ã~ëëáîÉ= OVKRB= ëáåÅÉ= íÜÉ= ÉåÇ= çÑ=g~åì~êóI=íç=~=åÉï=éçëíJNVUM=ÜáÖÜ=çÑ=APSKSNLçòí=áå= É~êäó= j~êÅÜ= Eëíáää= êáëáåÖ= ~í= íÜÉ= íáãÉ= çÑ=ïêáíáåÖFK= ^ÑíÉê= ÇÉÅäáåáåÖ= áå= g~åì~êóI= éÜóëáÅ~ä=ëáäîÉê=bqc=ÜçäÇáåÖë=êÉÅçîÉêÉÇ=èìáÅâäó=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ= çÑ= g~åì~êóI= êáëáåÖ= PRR= íçååÉë= íç= NQVSM=íçååÉëK= qÜÉ= ëáäîÉê= ÑìíìêÉë= ÅìêîÉ= Ü~ë= áå= Ñ~Åí=Ñ~ääÉå= áåíç= Ä~Åâï~êÇ~íáçåI= ~= îÉêó= ê~êÉ=

éÜÉåçãÉåçå=áå=íÜÉ=éêÉÅáçìë=ãÉí~äë=ã~êâÉíI=~ë=éêçÇìÅÉêë= ÖÉåÉê~ääó= ÜÉÇÖÉ= éêçÇìÅíáçå= ~í=ÅìêêÉåí=ÜáÖÜ=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=`ljbu=áåîÉåíçêáÉë=Ñ~ää=íç=éçëíJOMMS=äçïëK==mä~íáåìã= ~åÇ= é~ää~Çáìã= éêáÅÉë= Ü~îÉ= ÇáîÉêÖÉÇ=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=g~åì~êóI=ïáíÜ=éä~íáåìã=ãçîáåÖ=OKPB= ÜáÖÜÉê= íç= ANUQNKRMLçòí= ~åÇ= é~ää~Çáìã=ãçîáåÖ= MKRB= äçïÉê= íç= AUNTKUMLçòíK= mÜóëáÅ~ä=éä~íáåìã= ~åÇ= é~ää~Çáìã= ÜçäÇáåÖë= Ü~îÉ= åçí=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=äÉîÉä=çÑ=É~êäó=OMNN=çìíÑäçïë=~ë=ÖçäÇ=~åÇ=ëáäîÉêK=

=qÉÅÜåáÅ~ä= ~å~äóëáë= ENNMPMPFW= qÜÉ= OMMVJOMNN=íêÉåÇ=ÅÜ~ååÉä=êÉã~áåë=áå=éä~ó=ïáíÜ=Ç~ã~ÖÉ=áåÅìêêÉÇ=áå= g~åì~êó= Ñìääó=êÉé~áêÉÇK= fÑ= íÜÉ= éêáÅÉ=ãçîÉë= ÄÉäçï=êÉÅÉåí= ÜáÖÜë= Eáí= ÅìêêÉåíäó= íê~ÇÉë= ~í= àìëí= ~ÄçîÉF= ïÉ=ïçìäÇ=ëíáää=ëÉÉ=ã~àçê=éçíÉåíá~ä=Ñçê=ÑìêíÜÉê=áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=ÖçáåÖ=Ñçêï~êÇ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=ÜáííáåÖ=íÜÉ=íêÉåÇ=ÅÜ~ååÉä=íçéI=åçï= ~í= ANSPRLçòíK= ^ë= äçåÖ= ~ë= íÜÉ= ~ëÅÉåÇáåÖ= NOJãçåíÜ= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= êÉã~áåë= ä~êÖÉäó= ìåÅÜ~åÖÉÇI= ïÉ= ëÉÉ=äáííäÉ=êÉ~ëçå=íç=~Ä~åÇçå=çìê=ÄìääáëÜ=Å~ëÉK==

Gold and currencies vs. USD last month

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB

YTD (%) MoM (%)

=`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ==




NP

GOLD=

Gold price (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

12001300

1400

1500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Gold to silver ratio (front month, weekly closing)=

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

7680

84

88

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

==

SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=

Silver price (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

2

46

810

1214

1618

20

2224

2628

3032

3436

38

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Platinum and palladium prices (COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

300

550

800

1050

1300

1550

1800

2050

2300

Palladium (left axis)

Platinum (right axis)

==

FUTURES CURVES=

Gold (COMEX, $/ozt)=

1325

1350

1375

1400

1425

1450

1475

1500

1525

1550

1575

1600

1625

1650

1675

1700

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

jan-14

apr-14

jul-14

okt-14

jan-15

apr-15

jul-15

okt-15

jan-16

apr-16

jul-16

okt-16

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

=

Silver (COMEX, $/ozt)

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

jun-14

sep-14

dec-14

mar-15

jun-15

sep-15

dec-15

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

===





NQ

AGRICULTURE=

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íÜÉ=ÅçêêÉÅíáçå= áë=ÇáÑÑáÅìäí= íç=éêÉÇáÅíK=jçëí=i~=ká¥~= ãçÇÉä= ÑçêÉÅ~ëíë= ëìÖÖÉëí= íÜ~í= íÜÉ=éÜÉåçãÉåçå=é~ëëÉÇ= áíë= éÉ~â= áå= g~åì~êó= ~åÇ=áë= ÄÉÖáååáåÖ= íç= É~ëÉK= ^í= íÜÉ= ãçãÉåíI=åçêã~äáòÉÇ= ÅçåÇáíáçåë= ~äêÉ~Çó= íÜáë= ëìããÉê=~ééÉ~ê= ~ë= äáâÉäó= ~ë= ~= ïÉ~â= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= ÉîÉåí=áåíç= íÜÉ= ëìããÉêK= pÉîÉê~ä= Åêçéë= ïáää= êÉèìáêÉ=ÄçíÜ= Ñ~îçìê~ÄäÉ= ïÉ~íÜÉê= ~åÇ= ãçêÉ= ~ÅêÉ~ÖÉ=åÉñí=Åêçé=óÉ~ê=íç=Éå~ÄäÉ=~=ëí~êí=íç=êÉÄìáäÇáåÖ=áåîÉåíçêáÉëK=eçïÉîÉêI=ïáíÜ=åç=Öì~ê~åíÉÉ=íÜ~í=ïÉ~íÜÉê= ÅçåÇáíáçåë= ïáää= åçêã~äáòÉ= éêáÅÉë=ÅçìäÇ=êÉã~áå=ÜáÖÜ=Ñçê=ëçãÉ=íáãÉ=óÉíK=

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íçé=áë=~äëç=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉ=îáçä~íÉÇ=ïáíÜ=~=cáÄç=~ííê~Åíáçå=~í=¿NTMMLÄì=äççãáåÖK=



NR

=

CORN=

Corn price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)=

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Corn year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

mt

days of supply

==

WHEAT=

Wheat price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)=

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Wheat year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

mt

days of supply

=

SOYBEANS=

Soybean price (CBOT, ¢/bu, front month, weekly closing)=

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Soybean year end inventories (USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

20

40

60

80

100

120

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

mt

days of supply

===

`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa =̂



NS

=

SUGAR COFFEE=

Sugar price (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)=

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Coffee price (Arabica) (NYBOT, ¢/lb, front month, weekly closing)=

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220240

260

280

300

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

==

=FUTURES CURVES=

Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu)=

500

525

550

575

600

625

650

675

700

725

750

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

=

Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu)=

770

780

790800

810

820

830840

850

860

870880

890

900

910920

930

940

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

==

Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu)=

1200

1220

1240

1260

1280

1300

1320

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

=

Sugar (CBOT, ¢/lb)=

19

20

21

22

23

24

2526

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

apr-13

jul-13

okt-13

11-01-31

11-02-28

11-03-04

===

`Ü~êí=ëçìêÅÉëW=_äççãÄÉêÖI=pb_=`çããçÇáíó=oÉëÉ~êÅÜI=rpa =̂



NT

=

COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS==

EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next

Industrial production (%, YoY) 8,1 2010-12-31 8,0 2010-11-30 2011-03-14

Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,1 2010-12-31 1,4 2010-11-30 2011-03-14

Capacity utilization (%, sa) 80,0 2011-03-31 78,1 2010-12-31

Manufacturing PMI 59,0 2011-02-28 57,3 2011-01-31 2011-03-24Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,0 2010-12-31 1,9 2010-09-30 2011-04-06

Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,3 2010-12-31 0,3 2010-09-30 2011-04-06

CPI (%, YoY) 2,3 2011-01-31 2,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-16

CPI (%, MoM) -0,7 2011-01-31 0,6 2010-12-31 2011-03-16

Consumer confidence -10,0 2011-02-28 -11,2 2011-01-31 2011-03-23

USA

Industrial production (%, YoY) 5,2 2011-01-31 6,3 2010-12-31

Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,1 2011-01-31 1,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-17

Capacity utilization (%) 76,1 2011-01-31 76,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-17

Manufacturing PMI 61,4 2011-02-28 60,8 2011-01-31 2011-04-01

Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,7 2010-12-31 3,2 2010-09-30

Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 2,8 2010-12-31 2,6 2010-09-30 2011-03-25

CPI (%, MoM) 1,6 2011-01-31 1,5 2010-12-31 2011-03-17

CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,4 2011-01-31 0,4 2010-12-31 2011-03-17

OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,5 2010-12-31 102,1 2010-11-30

Consumer confidence (Michigan) 77,5 2011-02-28 74,2 2011-01-31 2011-03-11

Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, ‘000) 192 2011-02-28 63 2011-01-31 2011-04-01

JAPAN

Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 4,7 2011-01-31 4,9 2010-12-31 2011-03-14

Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) 2,4 2011-01-31 3,3 2010-12-31 2011-03-14

Capacity utilization (%, sa) 89,3 2010-12-31 86,7 2010-11-30


Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) 2,2 2010-12-31 4,9 2010-09-30

Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) -0,3 2010-12-31 0,8 2010-09-30 2011-03-10

CPI (%, YoY) -0,1 2011-02-28 0,0 2011-01-31 2011-03-25

CPI (%, MoM) -0,2 2011-01-31 -0,3 2010-12-31


Consumer confidence 41,1 2011-01-31 40,2 2010-12-31 2011-03-14

CHINAIndustrial production (%, YoY) 13,5 2010-12-31 13,3 2010-11-30 2011-03-11


Real GDP (%, YoY) 9,8 2010-12-31 9,6 2010-09-30 2011-04-15

CPI (%, YoY) 4,9 2011-01-31 4,6 2010-12-31 2011-03-11


Consumer confidence 100,4 2010-12-31 102,9 2010-11-30

Bank lending (%, YoY) 18,5 2011-01-31 19,9 2010-12-31

Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 23,8 2010-12-31 24,0 2010-09-30

OTHER

OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 102,8 2010-12-31 102,5 2010-11-30

Global manufacturing PMI 57,8 2011-02-28 57,1 2011-01-31

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research =



NU

=PERFORMANCE==

Closing YTD(%)

1 m(%)

1 q(%)

1 y(%)

5 y(%)

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1472,85 8,1 3,9 14,4 32,4 57,8

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1385,77 8,1 3,9 14,4 32,2 42,0

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1755,41 8,3 4,0 14,7 36,4 88,9

UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1639,24 13,7 9,1 17,6 27,1 44,7

UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1362,88 5,7 0,7 14,4 24,3 70,8

UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2202,52 1,9 7,6 3,7 33,8 158,0

UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 2069,83 5,3 0,5 12,9 57,9 125,2

Baltic Dry Index 1346,00 -25,0 29,1 -37,9 -56,9 -49,8

Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 104,42 14,3 17,3 17,1 30,2 64,0

Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 115,97 22,4 16,2 26,9 47,7 80,7

Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2600,00 5,3 2,3 12,1 17,2 4,5

Copper (LME, $/t) 9895,00 3,1 -1,5 13,4 33,8 99,5

Nickel (LME, $/t) 28800,00 16,4 1,6 22,6 29,1 90,1

Zinc (LME, $/t) 2461,00 0,3 -1,8 10,9 8,9 4,4

Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 558,50 -2,0 1,1 7,9 19,8 N/A

Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1428,60 0,5 6,0 1,7 26,1 151,5

Corn (CBOT, ¢/bu) 721,25 14,7 6,3 29,0 93,9 215,3

Wheat (CBOT, ¢/bu) 800,50 0,8 -6,2 8,5 63,2 114,3Soybeans (CBOT, ¢/bu) 1407,75 1,0 -1,8 8,3 51,0 137,3

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

=

MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS==

Date Source

Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov

American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org

CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.gov

US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov

International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report March 15 www.oilmarketreport.com

OPEC, Oil Market Report March 11 www.opec.org

Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook March 8 www.eia.doe.gov

US Department of Agriculture, WASDE March 10 www.usda.gov

International Grains Council, Grain Market Report March 24 www.igc.org.uk

OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria June 8 www.opec.org

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

=

CONTACT LIST==

COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone Mobile

Terje Anderson Global Head ofCommodities

[email protected] +47 22 82 71 03 +47 92 61 26 76

RESEARCH

Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30

Filip Petersson Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84

CORP. SALESMats Forsell Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82

Charlotte Aleblad Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10

Katarina Johnsson Head of Corp. Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02

Maximilian Brodin Sales [email protected] +47 22 82 71 62 +47 92 45 67 27

INST. SALES Arne Boberg Head of Inst. sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67

Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76

Christian Ekstrand Quantitative analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95

Andreas Hansson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 232 30 +46 70 772 30 64

TRADING

Mats Hedberg Chief Dealer [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78

Stephan Roelly Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 64 +46 73 517 77 39=

TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile

Anders Söderberg Chief tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1Dag Müller Tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9



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seb report: commodities could still move higher

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