seb commodities monthly may 2010
TRANSCRIPT
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May 4, 2010
Commodity Research: Bjarne Schieldrop (Head) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30, Filip [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47
Commodities Monthly
Industrial metals to ease or dive?=
General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Commodities demand to stay robust due to the global economic
recovery but expect downside price corrections Many options to boost activity again if China tightens too far, thus
avoiding extended commodity price slumps
Ample stocks will prevent the price of most commodities frommoving into exponential territory in the short term
Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M After early April strength Brent crude traded sideways, ending the
month 5.0% higher at $87.44/b European air traffic paralyzed by volcanic ash from the Icelandic
eruption exerted pressure on jet fuel demand in mid April Despite bearish fundamentals, crude oil upside risk remains in
Q2-10 as the seasonal stock downtrend starts and recoveryoptimism continues to drive funds into derivatives
We expect a return to OPECs USD 70-80/b range in Q3-10
Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Prices increased to within 10% of its 08 record highs in mid-April Chinese efforts to cool the property sector and Goldman Sachs
fraud allegations pressured industrial metal prices in April LME stocks were largely stable although nickel and tin stocks fell Increasing forward selling of industrial metals signalled that the
sector is becoming overvalued
Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M In April gold was supported by a deteriorating European
sovereign debt situation as the Greek crisis reached a criticalpoint and PIIGS debt was further downgraded
Interest rates in western countries remained low while inflationthreatened in Asia, both factors bullish for gold
Gold prices are unlikely to fall below USD 1100/ozt until a long
term solution to PIIGS debt is found, upside risk is substantial Palladium once again outperformed the sector on strong investor,
jewellery and industrial demandAgriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M In April agricultural commodity prices increased substantially for
the first time this year Indications of a recovery in demand and a slightly bullish WASDE
report from the USDA supported the main crops (corn, wheat andsoybeans) helping to relieve previous deeply bearish sentimentdue to ample stocks and favourable weather
US planting progressed rapidly but planting is a sensitive period Mixed development in soft commodities; cocoa and cotton
advanced while sugar and coffee fell backArrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specific period.
N
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices(price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100)=
708090
100110120130
140150
160170180190200
jan-09
feb-09
mar-09
apr-09
maj-09
jun-09
jul-09
aug-09
sep-09
okt-09
nov-09
dec-09
jan-10
feb-10
mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Energy
Agriculture
Performance overview(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
-12-10
-8-6-4-20246
810
Equities
Commodities
Energy
Industrial
metals
Precious
metals
Agriculture
YTD (%) MoM (%)
Winners & Losers last month(closing prices, %)=
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Steel,Med.
Sugar
Copper
Zinc
AluminiumTin
Coffe,
Arabica
USNatural
Cotton
WTI
USGasoline
Lead
Nickel
Soybeans
USHeatingOil
Brent
Gold
Corn
Silver
Platinum
Cocoa
Wheat
Palladium
Power,Nordic
Power,Cont.
CO2(EUA)
c
=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
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GENERAL=
t= ~~= = ~= =~= ~= ~= ~= = ~== = ~= = ~~= ~= NU== I= `= = ~=
= = = = ~I= = == =~= = =~= =eOJNMK=t=`~==~I=~~=====~I=~=~=~== ~~I= = = ~= ~= ~~=~= = ~= ~= = =~==NMB======^K=eI==`==== = = = = =~=== ~==K=t= ~= = ~= ~= =~I= ~= = =
= = ~= K= f=~I= = = = = ~=I= = = = = ~= ~~I== ~= = ~= ~= K=pI=====~===eOJNMK==a==~====~~=I==fjc==~==~~==== = ~= = = = = JK=q~I= = ~= = = = J=~= = ~= ~= = ===~==K=q=fjc=~==^= ~= = = = = =~=~~==~====~= ~= = ~= = = =K=eI==== =~== = = = = = ~=~=K=t==~=~==fjc= I= = ~= ~= ~= ~= =~=~== =~=NMJnO== NMJnP=~=K==a= ^= = ~= ~= == I= = = = =K=f===~===
= `~= ~= bj= ~= = ~= ~= ~== = lb`a= = ~= ~= = rp= =~~K==^= = = ~= = I= == = = = rp= =~= ~= = = ~= ~= == = = = = RKVB= = ^K=`= = = = = = lmb`=rpa=TMJUML==~K=t=tqf====~==~=======~= = = = ~~= ~I= _=
==~=~==~===rpa=UTKVTLK=e=rp= = = = = ~= = ~=== ~= = = tqf= = = = =
~~I= = ~~= ~= = ~== = = = I=~~= = = = = = ~= ==~===K==q===rp=~~=~=== J~= = ^= = = rp=p= ~= b~= `= Epb F=~=~~==~=~~===~= = ~= I= d~=p~K= q= = ~= = ~= J= == ~= = ~= ~= ===~K= d= ~= ~== = = = = ~==~=~==~=K==
t=b=~=======~=MKRBI=~=b==K=c=~I= = d~=~~= = === =~= K=j~I==d= ~=~~= = ~=~= =~= = = = = = = ~=broLrpa= = ^K= `= ~=~= ~= = = ~=== = ==== ~==~=K==
US Dollar Index
(weekly closing)=
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
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ENERGY==
_===~==AUOKTUJUTKVTL== ^= = = = RKMB= = ~=AUTKQQLK=f=~=^=====~=j~=~= ==~==~=
~= = rp= I= KK= =~= = fpj= J~~= ~=kcm= ~~K= m= = = ~= ~~= =~= rp= = ~= = ~=~===~~===^~= = ~= = rp= =K=q=~=~====~===pb`==d~=p~==~=`al=~= ~I= =~= ~= == ~~= ~= ~K= q== = = = = == b~~~= ~= =
~==~===K=^=~= ~= = ~= = ~=~~=~=~=~=~=======K=q=== ~= = = == = ~= ^= ~~= = =b~= = = K= p~===tqf==~==~=~= = = = = ^= ~= =~= = = = = == = ~K= q= = = ==~=EtqfL_==~=~=TKULSKRBF= ~= ~= ~~~=
= = ~= ~~= ~== = = ~K= ^= =~= ~= ~= ~= ~====K==q=~=====~~==~=~=~====^= NQ= = = = f~=b~~~= ~= ~= ~= ~= == = ~= ~= = = =b==~=K=^=~=I=~=NMMIMMM== = ~I= = = ~= OMB=
====~=E==~= NB= = ~= = ~FK= t=b~====~~=I=~======~======~K==f= = ^= = = = l= j~= o=EljoF= = = = f~~=b=^=Efb^F===~====~=~==~= EOMMVW= JTM= L== UQKV= LI= OMNMW= HPM= L= = USKS=LFK=lmb`=~==rp=a~==b=EalbF=
~= = = ~= ~= ~= ==== K=`~== = ~= = ~= ~= = fb =
= ~= Jlmb`= = =OMNM= = = OOM= L= = ROKM= LI= ~=~=~======~==~=~===~==== K=lmb`= ~= = ~=~====RRB==j~=K=RSB== c~K= lb`a= ~= = ===~=~=PUKQ===OSUR===c~K= d~= ~= = == =SR===j~==RR===c~==~=====RO===TQ=K==^===albI=rp====== PKS= = = ^= ~= = = =~=~~===~==j~K=a~=
= ~= ~= ~= ~~= I=~= TKO= K= d~= == = I= ~= NKO= I= = ~=~~= = = = = = ~K= _== = ~= = = ~== ~= ~= ~~= ~=~~= =~= = = = ===~K==l~I= =bj=~=~= lb`a=~== = ^K= ^= = = fb I=`~= = = = ~= ==
~= MKR= L= = OMNMI= ~= = ~== = = = = ~= = ~=~K= bj= ~= K= f~= = =~= = = ~= = = = =~K= `= ~~= = = ~= ~== = ~= = ~= = ~= == K= fI= = = ~= == ~= = = ~= ==~==K==q==~= ==~===== = = ~= ~= = =
~= ~= I= = ~~= == = ~~= ~= = =====~~=K=^=~= = = = ~~= = ~= =~= = = = == ~= = = ~~= = ==NVPMI===~=====lmb`= = rpa= TMJUML= ~K=eI= = ~= ~~= ~=~= = = = = ~=~= ~= EKK= = == = ~~F= =~~K= c= ~= J~= = =~= ~= = ~= = =f~~= ~= = ~= ~= =
O
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~=PM======~K=q==~= ~= = = ^~= = ~~== = = = ~~= ~~=E=~W=NMJnPFI==~==f~~= = K= q= ~= ~= == = = = = = ~K=
^~= ~= ~= = == = = ~= ~= = ~= ~= =~= ~= ~= = ~K= l=~=== ~===~===== = rpa= TMJUML= ~= ~= JnO==~JnPK=eI===~============= ~~= I= k= p~= =====~~==~==~= = = = = ~== = ~= == = = = b~= ==K=lmb`I=KK=p~=^~~I===
= ~= = = = =~=rpa=VMLK=q=~~==~=~====~~==~=~=== = = = ~= = ~= I= ~=~======~~=~==~=~~=I=KK=~=~=QJR=LK==q= rp= ~~= ~= ~= ~= == =^= = ~= = ~=~=~K= a= ~= ~~= =I= = ~= ~= = ~= = = =
~~=NMJ~=~=~=~=~=~=~==~===~====~K=j= ~JJ~= = = == = = = = = ~~= ~=~=~=~=~========~~=K=t== ~==rp= ~~=~=~= ~=~~= ~= = = ~=====~=K==q~=~~=E^=PMFW= _= ~===~==P==LL=~~=K=^=~====~~==~=
=K=c==~===~=~== = ~= = = = ~= = rpa=VML=~K==
c=
=
q=_~=a=f=~=~=====^= ~=~= = = = =~=~= = = s~= ~= _em= _=~= = ~= E~= = ~~F== ~K= `I= = =~=~=~==~==~~K=
eI= `= = = ~= = == = ~= K= a~= = ~=
==p=^~=~=~=~== = ~K= eI= ~= = =~=~====~====~K=_~=`~=~=a=q~=f== = = ^= ~= = == ~= = = = ~= =
~= ~= ~= = ~=~K=j~= ~= = SMJTM= =~=~======K=^=~= == = =b==^~I= t= ^~= ~= = j= b~= ~===~=~==~K==
Freight Indices(BFX, weekly closing, January 2002 = 100)=
01002003004005006007008009001000
11001200130014001500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500Baltic Dry Index (left axis)
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (right axis)
Baltic Clean Tanker Index (right axis)
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
k=m==
^= ~= = = = I= =~= ~= ~= = = = =I= = ~= ~= ~= K=a=^=====~=~==bro=QRJRMLjtK=^=p=~=~= = = ~= = ~= UTB= =~= ~~K= q= = ~~= == ~= ~= = = ==j~=K=q======~===NVI=~==~=~=~=~=~= = ~= = = = = =
= = ~= ~K= c= ~= ~== k= ~~= = = ~== = = = = ~~=~= ~= = = ~= K=k~I= = = NMMB= = I=======^==p= = = = I= =~~= bro= QSKUTLjt= = ^= E=bro= NMKNRLjt= K= j~F= ~= = ~=p==~~=~~==bro=QQKOOLjt=E=bro=NQKUOLjt=K=j~FK==
a= = = = ~= ~= = = =~= =^= E= ~= = K=j~F= = = ~= = =
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~K=c======~=== = ~= `l
O= =~= ~K= c=
~= = = = ^K= `~=E^mfO=voJNNF=~=rpa=OML==~=~===rpa=NMMLK=`l
O===aJNN=Ebr^=
aJNNF=~===~=NUB===
~= I= ~= ~= bro= NRKVMLI== = ~= = ~~= = = ~J~===~=~=~==~====k===~==~== ~= = K= ^= = ^= PMI=nPJNM= = ~= bro= QUKVRLjt= E= bro=TKTRLjt= LF= ~= `~JNN= ~= bro=QTKQRLjt=E=bro=UKPRLjt=LFK==t= = = = ~~= = ~= ========~== ~= ~= = = =
=~==K=_===~=~=`l
O===K=b=
= = = = I= = = Jj~==~===K==
Nordic system price and marginal costfor coal fired power generation(EUR/MWh, daily closing)=
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
jan-08
mar-08
maj-08
jul-08
sep-08
nov-08
jan-09
mar-09
maj-09
jul-09
sep-09
nov-09
jan-10
mar-10
Nord Pool YR11
Marginal cost YR11
`~=W=k=mI=oI=pb_=`=o~=
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CRUDE OIL=
Crude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)=
102030405060708090
100110120130
140150
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
NYMEX WTI
ICE Brent
=
US crude oil stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
j f m a m j j a s o n d
2005-2009 avg.
2009
2010
OIL PRODUCTS=Gasoline and heating oil prices(NYMEX, /gal, front month, weekly closing)=
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
NYMEX Gasoline
NYMEX Heating oil
=
Gasoline and distillate stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=
110
120
130140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
j f m a m j j a s o n d
Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.
Gasoline 2010
Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.
Distillate fuel oil 2010
=
POWER=
Nordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Continental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
20253035404550556065707580859095
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
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CO2 NATURAL GAS=
EUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 10, weekly closing)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
US natural gas prices(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=
0123456789
101112
131415
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
==
FUTURES CURVES=WTI(NYMEX, $/b)=
8384
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
jun-1
0
sep-1
0
dec-1
0
mar-
11
jun-1
1
sep-1
1
dec-1
1
mar-
12
jun-1
2
sep-1
2
dec-1
2
mar-
13
jun-1
3
sep-1
3
dec-1
3
mar-
14
jun-1
4
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
=
Brent(ICE, $/b)=
8283
84858687888990919293949596
jun-1
0
sep-1
0
dec-1
0
mar-
11
jun-1
1
sep-1
1
dec-1
1
mar-
12
jun-1
2
sep-1
2
dec-1
2
mar-
13
jun-1
3
sep-1
3
dec-1
3
mar-
14
jun-1
4
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
=
Gasoline(NYMEX, /gal)=
210
215
220
225
230
235
240
245
250
255
ma
j-10
aug-1
0
nov-1
0
feb
-11
ma
j-11
aug-1
1
nov-1
1
feb
-12
ma
j-12
aug-1
2
nov-1
2
feb
-13
ma
j-13
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
=
US natural gas(NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
ma
j-10
sep-1
0
jan-1
1
ma
j-11
sep-1
1
jan-1
2
ma
j-12
sep-1
2
jan-1
3
ma
j-13
sep-1
3
jan-1
4
ma
j-14
sep-1
4
jan-1
5
ma
j-15
sep-1
5
jan-1
6
ma
j-16
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
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=INDUSTRIAL METALS==
f=^==r_p=_=`j`f=f~=j~= m= f= = = OKTBK= a= == ~= = = = = = === = =`=~=
~= = ~= ~= == = = ~=~K= eI= = = = = == = d~= p~= ~= ~~=~= = `= = = ~= == =~==~= == ~= ~= = = ~= = ~K=q= = ~= = ~= =b~= = = = =~= = = = = = =~= = I= ~= = ~=K= k= = = =
== EHRKNBFI== = ~=EHPKVBFK=q= ===== =E=JQKTBI==JPKVBI=~=JPKMBI==JNKNBFK=
T
=i= j~= b~= EijbF= =~= = ~~I= = = = == = = = = ~I= =~= ~~= ~= K= q= ~==~====^K=p~=== = ~= ~= ~= = = =~~= ~I= ~= = ~= ~== ~= = ~~= = ~= =K= ^= ~= = =^= ~= ~= = =~~~= = ~= K= `I=~I= = ~= = ~= = =~~~K==f~= ~= = ~= ~= ~== K= m= ~= ~= ~= = == ~= = ~= ~= = ~~== ~= = = =`=~=~=~=~~===lb`a= ~= = eOJNMK= t= = == = ~= ~= ~= =
~==K=f===== ~= = = = = = ~=~= = ~= ~= K= eI=`= ~= = = = = == ~= = ~= ~== = ~= = ~I=~= = ~= == ~= = ~= = =~= = K= f= ~I= = =lb`a= ~= = = ~= K= t== = = = = = = ~=~= = ~= ^= = ~~= =
lb`a=~=~= ~~= ~==K= f~= ~= = ~=
= = = ~= ==K=^==========K==
^=
=
^= = = rpa= ONOSJOQROL== ^I= = = = = ~= rpa=OOPNLK= ijb= = ~= ~= == = = = = ~=~~I= ~= ~= = = I=~= K= f= `~I= ~== ~= = = ~~= = ~== = = = ~= K=eI===~=NRB==~I===~= ~= = K= ^= ~= = ~= =
~~~=E========~~= ~F= ~= = = ~=~= = = ~= = ~=~~K= q= ~= = =~==~==^===~== = = = = K= q~=~~= E^= PMFW=^= = ~==~=OO=~=HLJTB=~~==~K=q== = = ~= = ~= =K= c= ~~= EKK= ~= = == = ~~F= = = ~= = =rpa=OPMMLI======~==~==
~===~=rpa=ONRRJONUML==~=~K==
`=
=
`= = = rpa= TPOUJTVTUL= =^I=====~=rpa=TQMQLK=^= ~= ~= = j~I= ijb= ==~=~~==^K=`~=~~= ~= K= m= ~= ~=OMJ= = = ~= ^= ~= = =~==~=====
~=====~K=j~I== ~== = = ~= = ~=======~K=`= = ~= ~~= == ~= = = ~= == ~K= q= = = ===~===~~~==^K= q~= ~~= E^= PMFW= q== J= E= = = = = rpa=TUMML= F= = = ~= ~= J=K= ^=rpa=TOMMJTPMML= ~= = ~= =K= q= = = = = ~~= =~=~=rpa=TUSMLK=
=
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k=
=
k= = = rpa= OQSVOJOTOQRL= =^I= = = = = ~= rpa=OSORPLK= q= = = = = == = ~~= = ^= =
~= ~~= = ~= K= k=~= = = = = ~=~= I== ~= OPJ= I= = = == ~= = = ~= =K=q=~=~~====~===== = ==~== K=eI= =~= = = ~== ~= = ~~I= ~====EkmfFI===~==~==== I=~==`=kmf=======nNJNMK=q== = = = = ~= =
= ~~~= = ^K= q~=~~=E^=PMFW=q=~=~==~== = ~= = = = ~= =~=~==~=~=~=E~==~F==~=~=======J~=K=p======~==c~L^=PUB=~===rpa= OPRTRLK= m= ~= rpa= OSRMML= ~=~= ~= ~= ~= = = = = = = =~K==
w=
=w===rpa=OOQOJOQUVL==^I== == = ~=rpa= OORVLK= ijb== ~= ~= ~= =~=== Jc~I= ~= ~= ~~==~=~K=q==~=~=~~=~===~== ~= ~= ~K= i= == = = ~= = ~== = ~= = = = =^K=q=~=~=~=I=~~=~== =~=I= KK= = ~=K=q~=~~=E^=PMFW=q==
= ~= = c~L^= ~~= =~= = = ~= ~=K=i= = ~= ~=I=~= ~=~==~=rpa=OQRML===~K==
p=
=
ijb=j~~====rpa=QUMJSMQL==^I=====~=rpa= RMULK= ijb= = = K=^= = j~= ~~I= ~= ==~==~==OMNM==~=
==c~I==~==~=~=~~K= f= = ~= = I= ~= ~=
= = ~= = = = ~I== = ~~= = =K=`====~=~====j~==~===~~======~===~=~= ~= = ~= ~= K= j~I=
f~I= = = = ~= = =I=~===~==NRBK=q=ijb=j~~= = = == = ~==~==^K==
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ALUMINIUM=
Aluminium price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Aluminium stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
COMEX
LME
==
COPPER=Copper price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Copper stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
COMEX
LME
NICKEL=
Nickel price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Nickel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
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ZINC=
Zinc price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Zinc stocks(LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
LME
=
LEAD=Lead price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Lead stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
TIN=
Tin price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Tin stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
NM
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STEEL=
Steel price(LME Mediterranean, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
feb
-09
apr-
09
jun-0
9
aug-0
9
okt-09
dec-0
9
feb
-10
apr-
10
=
Steel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
4000045000
50000
55000
jul-08
sep-0
8
nov-0
8
jan-0
9
mar-
09
ma
j-09
jul-09
sep-0
9
nov-0
9
jan-1
0
mar-
10
=
FUTURES CURVES=Aluminium(LME, $/t)=
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
2450
2500
2550
2600
2650
ma
j-10
aug-1
0
nov-1
0
feb
-11
ma
j-11
aug-1
1
nov-1
1
feb
-12
ma
j-12
aug-1
2
nov-1
2
feb
-13
ma
j-13
aug-1
3
nov-1
3
feb
-14
ma
j-14
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
=
Copper(LME, $/t)=
6900
7000
7100
7200
7300
7400
7500
7600
7700
7800
7900
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
==
Nickel(LME, $/t)=
23000
23500
24000
24500
2500025500
26000
26500
27000
27500
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
=
Zinc(LME, $/t)=
2250
2275
2300
2325
23502375
2400
2425
2450
2475
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~
NN
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=PRECIOUS METALS==
f=^= =r_p=_= `j`f= m=j~= m= f= = = SKMBK= _===~= = ==~== ~~= ~~= EHNRKUBF= = =
~=EHSKQBFK=p=EHSKOBF==== = EHSKNBF= = ~= = ~=~===rpa=NNRML===~=~==OMNM=K=f===~=====bro=UVMKUML=~=~K=q=~== = ~= = = b~== = = ~= = =~= ~= ~~= = ~K=d= ~= = = ~= ~= J=~= ~= = d~= p~= ~= ~== = ==m~=C=`KI= =~= ~= = = pmao= = =
E==~==bqcFK=
NO
=q= bro= QR= = ~~= = =d= = = br= ~= fjc= ~= ~=~~==~=^K=q=~=~====~= = ~= ~= = = = =~~= ~= ~= = K= q= ~== ~= ~= = = ~~= ~== = ~= ~= = = = =~I=~==~==~=~=~= ~= = = = = = ~~== =~= = ====~==~~K= f=~I= =d==~=====~== = = = = = K= l= = == = = = = d~= = =~===~==~=~== ~= ~= ~= dK=`I=d====== = = K= q= = ~= = =p~~=C=m=====~= = = = __H= EFI= ==~=~=~===br=~=fjc======~=~=~K=p=~= = = = = = = ~=
b~= ~I= ~~= = c~I=p~= ~= d~K= j~=b~=I==~~I=~=~== ~= ~= ~= ~K= e= = = pmao===~=~=====^=~=NNRV= K= d= ~= ~= ~=~= = ~= ~= ~= = ~=~~K= ^= ~= = d= ~= ~= ====~==~== K= ^= = = d= ~=~= = ~= = ~= ~= ~= == = m~I= p~= ~= ~= = mffdp=
~K= j~= = ~~= =p~~= C= m= ~= m~= =
= = ^J= ~= p~== = = ^ K=q=====br=~=fjc==~==bro=NNM==~==d==~=^K= j~= ~= ~= ~= ~=bro=SMM=~=======mffdp=~== K=d===I=== = ==~~= = ~K= f= ~~=~~===~====== = = ~== ~=~= =~==~I======~==~K==f= ~= = = = = I=~== ~= = ~= ===~I===~I=~=
~= = ~= ~= ~K=a==~==I==~== = ~= = ~= = K=f=~======== = I= = = ~=~~= ~=~= == K= f==rpI==c=~~=~===~====~=~=~K=^==~==== = = nPJNMK= f= ^~I= I== = ~= ~= ~= ~== K=pI= ~= = ~= = =~I= KK= = f~= = = ~=
= ~= = K= b= ~=~=~========= = = ~= = ~== = = = = ~=~= = = = = = ~K=l====~~=~==~== = =~= ~= = = = ~= ~==J=~===~=~= ~= = ~= ~K= q= =~= = = = = = ==~K=eI=====~=~~===~=~==~=
=~=~=~~=K==f= ^I= ~~= = ~~= = ~=~=====bqcI=^~== ~= ~= = ~K=m~~=~===~===~===~== ~= OMJ=~K=o==rp=~~=bqc= ==~= NMB= = ~= ~= = = ~=====~=bqc== ~= K= q= bqc= = ~= =~= ~= = = = b~=bqcK= a= = ~~I= =
~~= ~= ~= = ~= ~=
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~= ~= = ~~I= ~= ~=~~==K==q~= ~~I= = E^= PMFW= q= =~==E~===~====~F= = = = ~= ~= rpa= NOOSL=
= E= = = c= ~= rpa= NNURJNNVML=~=~=~==FK==
Gold and selected currencies vs. USD
-8-7-6-5-4
-3-2-1012345678
GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB
YTD (%) MoM (%)
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
NP
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GOLD=
Gold price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Gold to oil & gold to LME Index ratios(front month, weekly closing)=
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7Gold to oil ratio (left axis)
Gold to LME Index ratio (right axis)
=
SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=
Silver price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
2
46
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Platinum and palladium prices(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
100
300
500
700
900
1100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
300
550
800
1050
1300
1550
1800
2050
2300
Palladium (left axis)
Platinum (right axis)
==
FUTURES CURVES=
Gold(COMEX, $/ozt)=
1100
1125
1150
1175
1200
1225
12501275
1300
1325
1350
jun-10
sep-10
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
=
Silver(COMEX, $/ozt)
17,25
17,50
17,75
18,00
18,25
18,5018,75
19,00
19,25
19,50
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
NQ
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AGRICULTURE=
^~= = = = =^= = = r_p= _= `j`f=^~=m=f==PKOBK=l==~== ~= ~= = = =
EHVKOBF= = = = EHSKOBF= ~=~= EHRKOBFK= r= = I= =~=~~=~~=d~=p~=~=~= = = = = = ~~=~K=q=~=====~== t= ^~= p= ~=a~= b~= Et^pabI=^= VF= == = rp= a~= = ^=Erpa^F= ~= = = ~K=eI= = ~= ~= ~=~= = = = I= ~~=~= = ~= ~= ~= ~~=
K==f~= ~= = = = rp= jI=KK=~=~=~=I=~=J~== ~K= q= = ~= = ~==p=^~=~I=~==~= = = ~= = rp= ~~===~= ~= = I=~=~= ~= = = ~= =~~=~===~=~K=l===~I===~=~=~I== = ~= = = ~= =I==~=~======~~===== ~~= K= b= = rp=~= = ~= ~= I=~= = ~= = = = =~K= a~= ~= = =~= = K= f= = =~~= = ~= ~~= = == ~= = = = ~= ~=~= ~= = = = =K=^===~===~==~= = = = f~= h~~= ~==~====~=~K=q=
= = b~~~= = = ~= =~= ~= = = = ~=K= e~= = = ~=h~~= ~= = NR= = ~=b~~~K=q=~===~===~= = = = = ~= =~==~=~=~=~===~K=^====~==~=~=~~I=~=====~====~K=t=== = ~= ~= = = h~~===~K==
=
p~= = = = = ^K= q=f~= ~= = = = ~= = ~= ==~===~=~=== = = ~= ~= = = ~= b=k=K=j~==_~~=~==~= = ~= = K= eI====~=~=~====MVLNM==~==========~====~===~~=~=OMMV==~~K=t====~===~=nPJNM===_~~= ~= ~= ~= = == ~= ~K= `= = ~===OMMV====bj=~K=`I=f~I====~=I= ~= = = ~= K= q=
~= = = = ~= = = =~= = ~= ~~= = = =~= = = ~= = ~= K=^== = ~= OMMV=~= = ~== K= p~= I= = = == = = = ~= I=~=~=~=~====== ~= = ~= = = ~= ==~=~===~K==
`=
=
`= = = PQRJPSSL= = ^I== = = = ~= PSSLK= t^pab=MVLNM= = = = QKMR= = = =NQQKOM= = ESR= ~= = F= = ==I===~==~J==~=~=K=rp==~===~~=~=~===RMB=~I==~==OOB==~=~~=E^= ORFK= ^= = ~= = rp=~= = = = ~= ~== = = ~K= ^= ~==~~==rp=~=====
= = = = ~= ~K=eI= = ~= = ~= ~==~= ~~== = = = == K= q~= ~~= E^= PMFW=q~= ~= = = ~= ~= PQPJPUNL=~K=k==~L===~==K= ^= = = = ~= = =~=K==
t~=
=
t~= = = QRQJQVVL= = ^I=====~=QVOLK=^== =t^pabI= MVLNM= == ~== MKVR= = = NVRKUO= = ENMR= ~= =
NR
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F== =K=rp==~=~= ~= = ~= = QPB=~I= = ~= = = ~= ~~= =OTB= E^= ORFK=t= ~= = =~= ~= = I= ~= ~====~K=^==~=
= ~= = = = = =~= ~= = K= q~= ~~=E^=PMFW=q=~===~===I=~===~==~=^===QRML=~=~K=^=~==~==~=RNPL==~===K==
p~=
=
p~===VPSJNMMQL==^I== = = = ~= VVMLK= p~=MVLNM= t^pab= = = ~= =
=OKOV===~=SOKVS==EUV=~==F= = = = ~= ~=~= ~JK= o= p= ^~==~=~J==rp=~=== = == = ~= ==K=b==~=== ~= ~~= = ~= ~= rp==~==K=f=~I=~=p= ^~= = ~= I= ~= == = = b= k= I= =~=~==~=~=====J~K=q~=~~=
E^=PMFW=_====~=~==VUML=~K=q===== = = = = = ==~======~==~~K=m==VPML=======~==VMMLK=
NS
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=
CORN=
Corn price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Corn ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
mt
days of supply
==
WHEAT=
Wheat price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
200300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Wheat ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
mt
days of supply
SOYBEANS=
Soybean price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Soybean ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
20
40
60
80
100
120
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
mt
days of supply
==
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa^=
NT
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=
SUGAR COFFEE=
Sugar price(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Coffee price (Arabica)(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
==
=FUTURES CURVES=
Corn(CBOT, /bu)=
340
360
380
400
420
440
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
Wheat(CBOT, /bu)=
425
475
525
575
625
675
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
=
Soybeans(CBOT, /bu)=
910
920
930
940
950960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
=
Sugar(CBOT, /lb)=
15,00
15,25
15,50
15,7516,00
16,25
16,50
16,75
17,00
17,25
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
10-03-31
10-04-23
10-04-30
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa^=
NU
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=
COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS==
EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next
Industrial production (%, YoY) 4,0 2010-02-28 1,5 2010-01-31 2010-05-12
Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,7 2010-02-28 1,7 2010-01-31 2010-05-12
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 75,5 2010-06-30 72,3 2010-03-31
Manufacturing PMI 57,6 2010-04-30 56,6 2010-03-31 2010-05-03Real GDP (%, YoY) -2,2 2009-12-31 -4,1 2009-09-30 2010-05-12
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,0 2009-12-31 0,4 2009-09-30 2010-05-12
CPI (%, YoY) 1,4 2010-03-31 0,9 2010-02-28 2010-05-18
CPI (%, MoM) 0,9 2010-03-31 0,3 2010-02-28 2010-05-18
Consumer confidence -15,0 2010-04-30 -17,3 2010-03-31 2010-05-20
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 4,0 2010-03-31 2,2 2010-02-28
Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,1 2010-03-31 0,3 2010-02-28 2010-05-14
Capacity utilization (%) 73,2 2010-03-31 73,0 2010-02-28 2010-05-14
Manufacturing PMI 59,6 2010-03-31 56,5 2010-02-28 2010-05-03
Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,5 2010-03-31 0,1 2009-12-31
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 3,2 2010-03-31 5,6 2009-12-31 2010-05-27
CPI (%, MoM) 2,3 2010-03-31 2,1 2010-02-28 2010-05-19
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,1 2010-03-31 0,0 2010-02-28 2010-05-19
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,7 2010-02-28 101,8 2010-01-31
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 72,2 2010-04-30 73,6 2010-03-31 2010-05-14
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, 000) 162 2010-03-31 -14 2010-02-28 2010-05-07
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 30,7 2010-03-31 31,3 2010-02-28 2010-05-19
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) 0,3 2010-03-31 -0,6 2010-02-28 2010-05-19
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 90,1 2010-02-28 90,1 2010-01-31
Manufacturing PMI 53,5 2010-04-30 52,4 2010-03-31
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) -1,0 2009-12-31 -5,2 2009-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,9 2009-12-31 -0,1 2009-09-30 2010-05-20
CPI (%, YoY) -1,5 2010-04-30 -1,7 2010-03-31 2010-05-28
CPI (%, MoM) 0,3 2010-03-31 -0,1 2010-02-28
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,9 2010-02-28 102,0 2010-01-31
Consumer confidence 41,0 2010-03-31 40,0 2010-02-28 2010-05-18
CHINA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 18,1 2010-03-31 12,8 2010-02-28 2010-05-11
Manufacturing PMI 55,7 2010-04-30 55,1 2010-03-31 2010-06-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 11,9 2010-03-31 10,7 2009-12-31 2010-07-15
CPI (%, YoY) 2,4 2010-03-31 2,7 2010-02-28 2010-05-11
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,8 2010-02-28 102,8 2010-01-31
Consumer confidence 104,2 2010-02-28 104,7 2010-01-31
Bank lending (%, YoY) 29,3 2010-01-31 31,7 2009-12-31
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 25,6 2010-03-31 30,1 2009-12-31
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 103,6 2010-02-28 102,9 2010-01-31
Global manufacturing PMI 56,7 2010-03-31 55,4 2010-02-28Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=
NV
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=PERFORMANCE==
Monthlyclosing
YTD(%)
1 m(%)
1 q(%)
1 y(%)
5 y(%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1137,45 -3,3 2,3 6,2 29,3 63,3
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1071,51 -3,3 2,3 6,2 29,1 42,6UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1320,86 -2,5 2,6 6,9 38,0 87,4UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1380,90 1,8 5,9 12,6 51,1 57,7
UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1125,81 0,6 -2,7 12,2 64,8 102,8UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 1727,32 5,8 6,0 10,1 35,8 170,9UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1269,33 -13,2 3,2 -5,1 4,4 73,2Baltic Dry Index 3354,00 6,8 11,9 17,8 87,8 -12,9
Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 86,15 5,7 2,9 18,2 68,5 73,3Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 87,44 9,1 5,7 22,4 72,1 71,1Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2231,00 -0,3 -3,0 8,6 52,3 22,4Copper (LME, $/t) 7404,00 -1,0 -4,7 10,0 66,9 121,7
Nickel (LME, $/t) 26253,00 38,7 5,1 42,3 125,8 61,6Zinc (LME, $/t) 2259,25 -11,3 -3,9 8,1 60,8 75,0Steel (LME, Far East, $/t) 532,50 26,8 -10,5 25,0 54,3Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 508,00 24,7 -11,3 23,6 49,9Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1180,70 5,6 6,1 9,0 32,5 170,7
Corn (CBOT, /bu) 366,25 -12,5 6,2 2,7 -7,6 78,9Wheat (CBOT, /bu) 491,75 -11,8 9,2 3,7 -6,2 54,6Soybeans (CBOT, /bu) 989,50 -5,7 5,2 8,3 -7,5 59,8
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
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MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS==
Date Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.gov
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report May 12 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market ReportMay 11 www.opec.org
Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook May 11 www.eia.doe.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE/WAP May 11 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report May 20 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria October 14 www.opec.org
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
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CONTACT LIST==
COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Mikael Nordstrm Global Head [email protected] +46 8 506 230 26 +46 70 293 00 12
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief Analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
SALESArne Boberg Head of Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67
Charlotte Aleblad Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10
Magnus Wallenbert Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 24 +46 76 213 33 40
Katarina Johnsson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02
TRADING
Stefan Fastesson Head of Trading [email protected] +46 8 506 230 13 +46 73 850 13 30
Mats Forsell Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82
Mats Hedberg Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78
Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
Christian Ekstrand Quantitative Analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95=
TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Anders Sderberg Chief Tech. Analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1
Dag Mller Tech. Analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9
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OM
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