scottish pelagic fishermen's association · other options 793663 f = 0.18 0.18 7225455 6 -31...

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION


Stocks • Mackerel • Blue whiting • Atlanto-Scandian herring • Horse mackerel • Horse mackerel North sea • Boar Fish


Old 2015 New 2015

2016

0.5 mill t upward revision of SSB estimate

2015 assessment contained an error in the recruitment index, leading to corrected advice for 2016. Comparison of NEA mackerel assessments (SSB) including the “old” 2015 assessment and the “new” 2015 assessment carried out in September 2016.

Mackerel – ICES Advice

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION Mackerel – ICES Advice

ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2017 should be no more than 944 302 tonnes. ICES further advises that the existing measures to protect the North Sea spawning component should remain in place.

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION Quality of the assessment

2015 assessment contained an error in the recruitment index. This will lead to a corrected advice for 2016.

As an example: SSB in 2014 was is now estimated at (14 % higher, see figure 1)

2016. Egg survey gave one of the lowest estimates of biomass. And a very unusual distribution (spawning in most northern area in May (figure 3)

Discrepancy between egg survey (decline) and Nordic swept area survey (increase) in 2016.

Therefore assessment gives much lower weight to surveys and assessment is mostly driven by catch data (figure 4).

This leads to a 42% higher estimate of SSB and 21% lower estimate of Fishing mortality (compared to the old 2015 assessment).

The assessment is unstable, mainly due to year to year fluctuations in the indices (egg and Nordic) that provide information in the assessment year, when no catch data is yet available.

A benchmark will take place early 2017. For mackerel new tagging data will be included, the survey data will be reviewed. I have also suggested analysis of minimum landing size and review of the mackerel components (including North Sea component)

mac-nea

Triennial Egg survey conducted in 2016

• 19 individual cruises • area coverage from Cadiz to Iceland • allocated shiptime was assigned to 8 different sampling periods and different areas in order to reach a broad spatial and temporal coverage • 367 survey days in total (2013: 334, 2010: 331) • 1st survey began 5th Feb, last survey ended 22nd

August

MEGS 2016 – Combined Results Mackerel Egg Production

Combined mackerel TAEP estimates (*1015) - 1998 – 2016

29% decrease from 2013

mac-nea


Egg survey abundances in 2010, 2013 and 2016 (Red dots – interpolated values)

Old 2015 New 2015

2016

Nordic (IESSNS) Swept area survey • abundance index for ages 6 to 11, new data for 2016

mac-nea

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

age 6

age 7

age 8

age 9

age 10

age 11

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION Mackerel - Catch Option Table

Total catch (2016) 1067828 t ICES (2016a) Sum of declared quotas corrected by the interannual transfers

Table 9.3.39.5 Mackerel in subareas 1–7 and 14, and in divisions 8.a–e and 9.a. The catch options for 2017.

Rationale Catch (2017) F (2017

& 2018)

Basis SSB (2017) Spawning

time

SSB (2018) Spawning

time

SSB change

*

Catch chang

e** MSY approach 944302 0.22 FMSY 4793232 4544588 -5% -12% Precautionary approach 1058820 0.25 Fpa 4772452 4437590 -7% -1% Zero catch 0 0.00 F = 0 4949577 5454304 10% -100% Other options

1020996 0.24

F EU, Faroe Islands and Norway long-term

management strategy 4779365 4472848 -6% -4% 1020996 0.24 F(2016) 4779365 4472848 -6% -4%

854262 0.20 Catch(2017) = 2016 catch -

20% 4809265 4629238 -4% -20% 1067828 0.25 Catch(2017) = 2016 catch 4770799 4429206 -7% 0% 1281394 0.31 Catch(2017) = 2016 +20% 4730754 4231803 -11% 20%

982824 0.23 0.23 4786291 4508512 -6% -8% 1096301 0.26 0.26 4765554 4402734 -8% 3% 1133442 0.27 0.27 4758670 4368274 -8% 6% 1170247 0.28 0.28 4751800 4334205 -9% 10% 1453004 0.36 Flim 4697340 4075136 -13% 36%

2697591 0.80 F(2017-2018) leading to Bpa

in 2018 4413138 3000000 -32% 153%

4200426 1.70 F(2017-2018) leading to Blim

in 2018 3904536 1840000 -53% 293%

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION Blue Whiting – ICES advice

ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2017 should be no more than 1342330 tonnes.


Quality of the assessment

The assessment was problematic last year, instigating the Inter-Benchmark Protocol of Blue Whiting (IBPBLW), which agreed new methods. Feeding in to work on evaluation of management strategies (WKBWMSE)

Higher estimate of Fmsy (0.32) leads to a much higher advice for 2017.

Acoustic survey in 2016 showed high biomass, similar to 2014. That means that the 2015 survey was probably an outlier.

In 2016 the Nordic survey Seas (IESSNS) will try to estimate the abundance of blue whiting, which may over the long term improve the robustness of the assessment.

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION Blue whiting - Catch Option Table

Table 9.3.6.3 Blue whiting in subareas 1–9, 12, and 14. The catch options.

Rationale Catch (2017) Basis F 2017 SSB (2018) % SSB

change * % Catch

change ** MSY approach 1342330 FMSY = 0.32 0.32 6700746 -2 17 Zero catch 0 F = 0 0 7984012 17 -100 Other options 793663 F = 0.18 0.18 7225455 6 -31 875482 F = 0.20 0.20 7147053 5 -24 956118 F = 0.22 0.22 7069836 4 -17 1074904 F = 0.25 0.25 6956183 3 -7

1152681 (~1147 kt) Catch 2017 = Catch 2016

0.27 6881829 1 1

1582620 F (2016) 0.39 6471736 -5 38 2228739 Fpa 0.58 5858628 -14 94 3077862 Flim 0.88 5059556 x x 6159997 SSB2018 = Bpa 2.88 2257026 x x 7039918 SSB2018 = Blim 4.16 1507999 x x

Weights in tonnes. * SSB 2018 relative to SSB 2017. ** Catch 2017 relative to estimated catch in 2016 (1147 kt).


Blue Whiting – Management strategy evaluation NEAFC request to ICES

Using the same approach used to estimate Fmsy for other stocks

Fmsy range: 0.13-0.33, so Fmsy =0.32 from 2016 Inter benchmark protocol confirmed OK.

[Previously Fmsy 0.3 and before that 0.19]

Bpa trigger 2.25mt, Blim 1.5 mill t

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION Blue Whiting – Management strategy evaluation

Two simulation models used to evaluate the HCR

Simulations suggest that there is limited gain in catch for target F values above F=0.25 in the long term. Potentially higher and more stable yields (because biomass allowed to grow above Bpa), achievable with higher CPUE could be obtained by finding a suitable harvest rule with lower F targets and biomass trigger(s).

10% inter-annual quota flexibility had trivial effects on the proposed harvest control rule.

Concern that the cap of 20% TAC increase and decrease can lead to higher

risk of stock falling below Blim, but also missed opportunities. Upper cap only safeguards against biomass uncertainty but misses opportunities.

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION Atlanto Scandian Herring – ICES Advice

ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the EU, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and Russia management plan is applied, catches in 2017 should be no more than 646 075 tonnes.


New assessment model after the benchmark in WKPELA carried out in March 2016, predicting higher biomass and lower F, BUT the biomass trend still declining.

Outcome of the assessment - Lead to a doubling of the catch advice compared to last year because the stock is at a higher level and because according to the management plan a higher F can be applied.

The newly (2015) restarted Norwegian acoustic survey on spawning grounds in February/March has a strong influence on the assessment. This is a survey that was abandoned in 2008 and restarted in 2015. It appears as if the latest survey observation has a very strong influence on the assessment.

The survey gave an estimate of the spawning stock biomass 30% lower than in 2015-survey, but with considerably higher uncertainty (from 11% in 2015 to 40% in 2016). The ecosystem survey in the Norwegian Sea (IESNS) covering the NSS herring stock on its feeding migration resulted in 7.5% lower index compared to 2015. Some positive signs of recruitment were observed: the 2013 year class may be somewhat stronger, yet not at the level of really good year classes for this stock.

An evaluation of whether the Fmp will lead to maximum long term yield is due to be carried out this year (following WIDE)


SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION Atlanto Scandian herring - Catch Option Table

Table 9.3.33.3 Herring in subareas 1, 2, and 5, and in divisions 4.a and 14.a (Norwegian spring-spawning herring). The catch options.

Rationale Catches (2017) Basis Fw(2017)* SSB(2018) % SSB

change** % Catch

change*** Agreed management plan 646 075 FMGT*0.992 0.124 4 898 000 -2 72

MSY approach 766 676 FMSY × (SSB2017/MSY Btrigger = 0.995) 0.149 4 794 000 -4 104

Zero catch 0 F = 0 0 5 459 000 10 -100 Other options 339 833 F2016 0.063 5 163 000 4 -10 770 384 FMSY (=Fpa) 0.150 4 791 000 -4 105

528 271 SSB2018 = Bpa (= MSY Btrigger)

0.100 5 000 000 1 40

3 493 537 SSB2018 = Blim 0.978 2 500 000 -50 828 Weights in tonnes. * Fw = Fishing mortality weighted by population numbers (age groups 5–11). ** SSB 2018 relative to SSB 2017. *** Catches 2017 relative to estimated catch 2016.


ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2017 should be no more than 69186 tonnes.

Western Horse mackerel – ICES Advice


There is large uncertainty in the absolute estimates of SSB.

The only fishery-independent information for this stock is a measure of egg production from surveys conducted every three years. This years egg survey gave one of the lowest values in the time series.

This lead to a downward revision of the SSB and upward revision of F.

The landings fraction sampled to estimate biological parameters has increased since 2013; it is important to maintain these levels of sampling to maintain the quality of catch-at-age data

Horse mackerel will be benchmarked early 2017.


SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION Western Horse mackerel- Catch Option Table

Table 9.3.34.3 Horse mackerel in Subarea 8 and divisions 2.a, 4.a, 5.b, 6.a, 7.a–c, and 7.e–k. The catch options.

Rationale Catch (2017) Basis

F (2017 and

2018)

SSB (2017)*

SSB (2018)*

%SSB change**

% TAC change***

MSY approach ^ 69186 Fmsy*SSB2017/MSY Btrigger 0.0917 455086 490225 7 -45 96494 FMSY 0.13 445576 461276 3 -23 Zero catch 0 F = 0 0 478383 566841 16 -100

Other options

93031 F2015 0.1256 446793 464906 4 -26 116886 F2016 0.1606 438350 440145 0 -7

0 SSB2018 = MSY Btrigger ^^ 126103 TAC2016 0.175 435049 430740 -1 0

Weights in tonnes. * SSB at spawning time.

** SSB2018 relative to SSB2017 at spawning time. *** Catch advice 2017 relative 2016 TAC (EU TAC plus national quotas of other countries). ^ ICES MSY advice rule is based on SSB at spawning time (May) in 2017. ^^ Even with 0 catch it is not possible to reach MSY Btrigger by 2018

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION Information from stakeholders

The Pelagic RAC proposed a management plan for horse mackerel in 2007 (ICES, 2014: see Annex 9.3.12.1). Since 2011 ICES has not advised according to the management plan because it has been concluded that the management plan in its current configuration is not consistent with the precautionary approach (PA) (ICES, 2013). However, this work also showed that the plan could be made consistent with the PA through the introduction of a protection rule (ICES, 2013).

A number of webex meetings held this year, next one today. Some of scientific anomalies been partially resolved Efforts will continue to resolve remaining scientific issues Industry/through PELAC will support the MSY advice given there are little

alternate options

http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication Reports/Advice/2014/2014/hom-west.pdf

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION North Sea Horse mackerel – ICES Advice

ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the precautionary approach is applied, catches in 2017 should be no more than 18247 tons.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000 Discards

Landings

Figure 6.3.19.1. Horse mackerel in divisions 3.a, 4.b–c, and 7.d. Top: Catches in quarters 1 and 2 from divisions 3.a and 4.a, and in all quarters from divisions 4.b–c, and 7.d.


Catches have been declining since 2009.

The survey indices show contrasting trends. Both are uncertain.

There are indications of stronger recruitment of horse mackerel in 7d. However this is not apparent in the North Sea.

Planning has taken place for the upcoming benchmark of horse mackerel (western and North Sea). This will focus stock identity and development of combined stock indicators.



On behalf of the Pelagic Advisory Council and the EAPO Norther Pelagic Working Group, a research project on horse mackerel was initiated in 2015 with IMARES (Netherlands) and University College Dublin (Ireland)

Genetic methods look promising for future application. Work is ongoing to evaluate the feasibility of using historic catch rates of

pelagic freezer-trawlers based on skipper’s diaries as indicators of abundance for the assessment.

Catch sampling carried out by several companies is being explored to give information on the separation between North Sea and Western horse mackerel. This information will be presented to the upcoming benchmark.

Information from stakeholders

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION North Sea Horse mackerel- Catch Option Table

Table 6.3.19.2 Horse mackerel in divisions 3.a, 4.b–c, and 7.d. For stocks in ICES data categories 3–6, one catch option is provided. Recent advised catch for 2016 15 200 t Discard rate** 16.7%

Precautionary buffer Not applied -

Catch advice* 18 247 t Wanted catch corresponding to the catch advice 15 200 t

*Recent advised catch/(1-discard rate). ** The majority of discards come from non-directed, demersal fisheries


ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the precautionary approach is applied, catches in 2017 should be no more than 27 288 tonnes.

Boarfish – ICES Advice

Figure 9.3.7.1Boarfish in subareas 6–8. Summary of the assessment. Bottom left panel: relative fishing mortality (average 2003–2015 ). Bottom right panel: relative total stock biomass (to average 1991–2015), regarded as an indicator of the recent development of the stock. The lines indicate median values and the shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals. The dashed lines in the biomass plot indicate the average values of 2012-2014 and 2015-2016. Change graph to reflect this


Acoustic survey conducted on the Research Vessel Celtic Explorer joined up with the Irish portion of the Malin Shelf Herring Acoustic survey to form one big comprehensive acoustic\ecosystem survey.

Acoustic survey considered a reliable index within the survey area, though it may not fully cover the stock area.

High uncertainty in the estimates of absolute biomass due to the short time-series.

The commercial catch data are considered to be complete, including discards from other fisheries from 2003 onwards. Discarding due to bycatch fisheries prior to 2003 was likely to have been small in comparison with subsequent catches.

The current assessment and management unit is considered appropriate. However, a small portion of northern Division 9.a could be included as part of the NEA stock based on a genetic study (ICES, 2016b). Based on analyses of IBTS data (ICES, 2016b) and the lack of boarfish in the PELACUS acoustic survey in spring 2016, biomass in northern Division 9.a is expected to be small relative to the overall biomass in the TAC area. There is no evidence of significant immigration to or emigration from the TAC area from populations to the south or from oceanic waters.


SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION Boarfish - Catch Option Table

Table 9.3.7.2 Boarfish in subareas 6–8. For stocks in ICES data categories 3–6, one catch option is provided. Index A (2015, 2016) 0.525 Index B (2012, 2013, 2014) 1.391 Index ratio (A/B) 0.378 Uncertainty cap Applied 0.8 Recent advised catch for 2016 42637 t Discard ratio (2015) 0.05 Precautionary buffer Applied 0.8 Catch advice* 27288 t Wanted catch corresponding to the catch advice 25924 t

* (Recent advised catch) × cap × precautionary buffer.

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION North Sea Herring – ICES Advice

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION North Sea Herring

ICES advice released at the end of May Advice is based on the EU/Norway Management Strategy 426,259 tonnes - (-18%) Natural mortality estimates are derived from the North Sea multi species

assessment model Following a benchmark exercise on NS Cod the natural mortality values were

changed Perception now is there is a higher predation by a number of demersal stocks

on herring This has resulted in a change in perception of the herring stock size and fishing

mortality Reference points were revised - changes the Fmsy value from 0.27 – 0.33 A number of HAWG scientists unhappy about making changes to herring

reference points outside a full benchmark exercise

SPFA SCOTTISH PELAGIC FISHERMEN'S ASSOCIATION West of Scotland & Ireland Herring


Irish Sea Herring

scottish pelagic fishermen's association · other options 793663 f = 0.18 0.18 7225455 6 -31...

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