scenario planning sps webinar

Scenario Planning

Strategic Webinar Series15 May 2013

Agenda

• Opening remarks - Fiona Carter, Executive Officer SPS

• Scenarios for India and China to 2015 - Gill Ringland, CEO SAMI Consulting

• Q&A

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The Strategic Planning Society

SPS was formed in 1967 and is a global network dedicated to the development of strategic thinking, strategic management and strategic leadership.

Our Members are individuals, corporate organizations and business schools.

We are dedicated to supporting Members to develop their strategic management and leadership capabilities.

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Our Missionimprove the practice,

development and recognition of strategic management

Our Visiona dynamic, global strategic management community

About the SPS Strategic Webinar series

A series of Webinars launched in January 2013 for SPS Members worldwide.

Topics chosen for their broad application and appeal to the Membership of SPS.

To provide insight and practical recommendations for strategic managers and leaders.

Future sessions are planned to address subject areas such as strategy and sustainability, strategy and organizational design and strategy implementation.

Let us know if you would like to contribute to an SPS Webinar.

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Scenario Planning

• There is on-going turbulence of the world economy

• Scenario planning is being increasingly used in the public, private and NGO sectors.

• Asset managers are realising that 80% of their concern needs to be with the global business environment, and 20% with the specific investment – a reversal from the boom years to 2008.

Our speaker will share a case study with you:

• A set of scenarios for India and China to 2015, examining how they were generated, what the scenarios got right and what not, lessons learnt.

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Our speaker

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Gill Ringland

• CEO of SAMI Consulting.

• Previously head of strategy at ICL now part of Fujitsu.

• Currently working with the European Commission, Eurocontrol, the Technology Strategy Board and ACCA.

• Scenario planning books,

• Also Beyond Crisis ,co-authored with Oliver Sparrow and Patricia Lustig,

• In Safe Hands? on Financial Services to 2050

• Here be Dragons, Exploring how organisations can incorporate thinking about the future into their day to day planning and projects.

Robust decisions in uncertain times

SAMI

• Our offer– To enhance the capability to anticipate

– To transform emergent thinking into strategy and implementation

– Consulting, backed up by executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times”

• “You can never plan the future by the past”– Edmund Burke, 1729-1797

7www.samiconsulting.co.uk


India and China to 2015

• Study commissioned by the City of London in

2006

• The City was concerned at the impact of India

and China on London’s Financial Services

– Were India and China the same or different?

– Were India and China a threat or an opportunity?

• 5,000 copies of the report were distributed

• Report in pdf on the SAMI web site

– www.samiconsulting.co.uk.under News &

Publications.

www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8

http://www.samiconsulting.co.uk/


Scenarios for India and China

• Methodology

– Worked with Oxford Analytica’s country experts to

develop the scenarios

– Held workshops in the City of London to explore

implications for asset management, insurance and

international banking

– Published report in October 2006

• Will focus here on

– What were the scenarios and what has happened

since?




• It is a mistake to see them as homogeneous – there are many

Chinas and Indias.

• The dynamics of development apply to China or India as much

as they do anywhere else.

• China or India can be thought of as a producer, a political power

or a marketplace, each raising distinct questions leading to

distinct approaches

• Our approach was - what are these countries going to be like as

places to do business, in which to invest, with which to

collaborate or compete?

Comparing China and India


10203040506070

Attitudinal Distance

France

Japan

Spain

Brazil

China

Korea

India

Kenya

Indonesia

Nigeria

Australia

Canada

USA

UK

GermanyIndustrial

Developing

Market

Collective

Future-oriented

Mixed views

Mld Inc

Poor

Chile

S Africa

Peru

Ecuador

Guatemala

Mexico

Pakistan

Thailand

Turkey



China

India

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Annual real GNP growth

China

Middle

income

Lower middle

income

Indexed GDP, 1960=100 (constant money)

500

1000

1500

2000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

India

Relative size in 2004

China

India

Lower

middle

income

Middle

income



The big questions for India

• India is a very complex and consensus driven society

• Would frustration about – China’s example

– Loss of esteem in Asia

– New generation with new views

lead to further liberalisation of economic, regulatory and social controls?

• How would the balance of power between a federal style of government with localism, and a more centralised system, play out?



Liberalisation is

reversed

Liberalisation

accelerates

Centralised system of

governance

Federal style of governance

The Elephant

Lumbers along

The

Elephant

Breaks its

Chains

Retreat to the

Woods

2006

Scenarios for India


What has happened in India?

• India is one of the fastest growing economies in the

world as a result of liberalization of the last decades,

covering manufacturing, agriculture and financial

services.

• The balance of power between the central government

and the states has shifted slightly towards central

government as India moves to play a bigger part on the

world stage viz-a-viz the UN, Pakistan, etc. For

comparison purposes, the central government of India

has more power than the US Federal Government.



Liberalisation is

reversed

Liberalisation

accelerates

Centralised system of

governance

Federal style of governance

The Elephant

Lumbers along

The Elephant

Breaks its Chains

Retreat to the

Woods

2006

Scenarios for India: Direction


The big questions for China

• How long can China’s rapid economic growth

persist?

– Can China cope with the complexity it is creating?

– What are the adaptation mechanisms?

• How will China interact with the rest of the world?

– Will she be seen as a source of economic wealth and

growth?

– And/or a threat on the world stage, a source of instability?



Scenarios for China


2006


What has happened in China

• China’s economic growth has continued

– No longer as connected to US trade after 2008:

– focus on growing internal consumer markets

– 7.7% growth annualised in last quarter

• China has a foreign policy to protect its interests

– investments in raw materials in Africa, Latin America,

SE Asia, ex-USSR countries ,---

– Seen as a source of cyber-crime

– aggressive in South China Sea

– Supports North Korea (shared road bridge)



Scenarios for China: Direction


2006


What can we learn from these?

• Scenarios need to build on history but not be constrained

by the past

– Experts can find it difficult to recognise signs of change

• Thinking about the trajectory – how the organisation

might get from A to B is important for identifying early

indicators that might show which scenario was emerging

– Elephant Breaks its Chains – early indicator: Indian companies

off-shoring to lower wage economies.

– Lion leads the Dance – early indicator: gradual liberalisation of

the renminbi $ exchange rate

• The scenarios allowed for discussion of previously less

explored future directions for China and India.



Thank you!


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Horizon Scanning Centre of the Government

Office for Science) contact training

@samiconsulting.co.uk.

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Mind events, please ask,

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