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Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based A h Approaches EBM Tools Webinar July 13, 2011 Patrick Crist & Ian Varley NatureServe NatureServe

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Page 1: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based A hApproaches EBM Tools Webinar

July 13, 2011

Patrick Crist & Ian VarleyNatureServeNatureServe

Page 2: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

enda *

Age • Introductions & background on the framework

The Frame ork o er ie• The Framework overview

• Details of steps with examples from pilot projects

• Intersperse some live demo with NatureServe Vista

• Wrap-up questions and discussions

Page 3: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Framework Overview: what are its origins?

• FWS cooperative agreement: the Refuge Vulnerability Assessment frameworkVulnerability Assessment framework

• The Integrated Land-Sea Planning h / t lkitapproach / toolkit

• The transportation Cumulative Effects Assessment and Alternatives framework

• Methodology work to develop NatureServe gy pVista DSS

Page 4: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Key Jargon

• Mitigation (not reduction of carbon) used here interchangeably with climate adaptation

• Resource: any feature to assess, retain, y , ,plan around; AKA “element”

• Retention goal: percent or amount of• Retention goal: percent or amount of resource to retain

Page 5: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Framework Overview: what is it?

Spatially-enabled process to:

• Identify resources of concern• Identify key stressors including effects of• Identify key stressors including effects of

climate change• Conduct cumulative effects assessments• Conduct cumulative effects assessments

under multiple scenarios• Rapidly develop response strategies and• Rapidly develop response strategies and

optional management scenarios• Facilitate cooperative planning with partners• Facilitate cooperative planning with partners

in other sectors throughout the landscape

Page 6: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Framework Overview: what is it based on?

Well-established concepts from:

• Vulnerability assessment• Cumulative effects assessment• Cumulative effects assessment,

integrating climate effectsTh iti ti ( t li t ) hi h• The mitigation (not climate) hierarchy (avoid, minimize, restore, offsetS t ti ti l i• Systematic conservation planning

• Ecosystem-based & adaptive management

Page 7: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

PROCESS WORKFLOWPROCESS WORKFLOW

Page 8: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Key Jargon

• Scenarios: the things to compare your resource objectives againstresource objectives against– Current/baseline scenario

F t i– Forecast scenario– Proposed scenario– Typically time series– Cumulative: current stressors + future

Page 9: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Process Workflow (abbreviated from handbook)Planning C ll b tiStep 1 Scope

Policy frameworkKey resources

Issues, Priorities

Planning Processes

Collaboration Processes

Step 6 Inform Alternatives Spatial, non-

spatial actions

Step 2 InformationComplete data

inventory, generation & modelingp & modeling

Step 3 Map Cumulative ScenariosTi i

Step 5 Develop StrategiesMitigation,

Time series, alternative futures

Step 4 Evaluate Scenario Effects

adaptation, change priorities

Resource goal gaps, key stressors &

locations

Page 10: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Information Workflow

Stakeholder

Climate Change Effects

Direct Indirect

Context; Time, Funding, Geography, Policies, Leadership, Current efforts, etc

Stakeholder input: desired

resources, infrastructure

InfrastructureCurrent,

proposed, planned, forecast

Candidate Stressors

Infrastructure + all

Direct, Indirect

Stressors to be Assessed

Resource Candidates

planned, forecast

Multiple Scenarios

Current future

Resources (& infrastructure)

Selected critical infrastructure

Regulatory Requirements

Current, future, planned, forecastto be assessed

Available Strategies Vulnerability Assessment

Alternative ScenariosSector

Planning Alternative ScenariosPlanning Processes

Page 11: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Spatially enable process requires tools for:

• Gathering & managing information• Conducting advanced spatial analyses and• Conducting advanced spatial analyses and

modeling• Allowing easy repeat of what if questions• Allowing easy repeat of what if questions• Facilitating work across sectors and ecosystems

• The complexity of this work cannot be accomplished without themaccomplished without them

• That said, lacking data some of the analyses must be non-spatial or partially spatial-enabledmust be non-spatial or partially spatial-enabled

Page 12: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

A Toolkit ApproachCurrent Tool Suite

Demonstrated Tool Interoperability

Potential tool interoperability

Data & Modeling ToolsPlanning Process Tools“Development”

Ecological Process

Geophysical Process ToolsN-SPECT, Climate Predictions Climate Predictions ModelsModels

Planning Process & Civic Engagement

E-Planning, Miradi, AnywarePolling

Planning Tools

Land Use Planning Tools CommunityViz

Framework Integration Biodiversity Tools

co og ca ocessTools Habitat Priority Planner, CircuitScape, VDDT

Energy and Infrastructure Planning

Tools CommunityViz

gTool

NatureServe Vista

Biodiversity ToolsMapping and Distribution Modeling Tools – e.g., See5, MaxEnt

Ecosystem

Tools QuantM

Forestry Tools yServices InVEST

Conservation & Mitigation Tools

Land Allocation/ Optimization ToolsMarxan, ZonationZonation, C, C--PlanPlan

Mitigation PlanningVista Site Explorer, Mitigation Query Tool

Other interactions among tools not shown for clarity

Page 13: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

On the land, in the water, anywhere on the globe

SURDNASURDNAFOUNDATIONFOUNDATIONSURDNASURDNA

FOUNDATIONFOUNDATIONSURDNASURDNA

FOUNDATIONFOUNDATION

Why the right tool for this job?• Free ArcView platform extension• Robust tool for cumulative effects• Robust tool for cumulative effects

assessment• A framework tool for integrating

information across sectors, tecosystems, sources

• Assists from initial information gathering through assessment, development of alternatives, pplanning, implementation, and adaptive management

• Professional engineering, full integrated manual, tech support &integrated manual, tech support & training available, endowment to maintain it.

Page 14: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

STEP DETAILSSTEP DETAILS

Page 15: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Step1: Scope Step 1 ScopePolicy framework

• Determine the resources to be assessed

Key resources Issues, Priorities

• Determine the resources to be assessed using laws, regulations, stakeholder and scientific inputscientific input

Page 16: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Building Block: Resources

Biodiversity• Species

• Ecosystems

• Habitats & Communities

Geophysical land unitsAlready identified priority areasAlready identified priority areasCultural Elements• Vulnerable human populations

S i i• Scenic views

• Archaeological & cultural sites

• Recreation areas

C iti l I f t tCritical Infrastructure• Escape routes

• Water control structures

• Hospitals

• Emergency response facilities

Page 17: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

C t t A l iC t t A l iStep1: Scope

Context AnalysisContext Analysis

Two contextsTwo contexts

1.1. Ecoregion: helps establish priority Ecoregion: helps establish priority 1.1. Ecoregion: helps establish priority Ecoregion: helps establish priority resources within the project arearesources within the project area

22 Supporting landscape/seascape: within Supporting landscape/seascape: within 2.2. Supporting landscape/seascape: within Supporting landscape/seascape: within which detailed spatial analyses is which detailed spatial analyses is conductedconductedconductedconducted

Page 18: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

E t Sh f Vi i i NWRC (1850 )

Issues: Urbanization, sea level rise, habitat management

Eastern Shore of Virginia NWRC (1850 ac)

conflicts

Page 19: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Sh ld /H t M t i NWRC (850k )

Issues: feral horses, history of grazing and water development,

Sheldon/Hart Mountain NWRC (850k ac)

invasives and juniper expansion, expected deleterious climate changes on species composition and ecological integrity

Page 20: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Step1: Scope

• Determine the scenarios to use for assessmentassessment– Current

U b i ti b ild t f t & l d– Urbanization build out or forecast & planned infrastructure (e.g., 15-20 years out)Cli t h ff t ( 20– Climate change effects (e.g., 20 year increments)

D t i f ibl ti l d ti l• Determine feasible spatial and non-spatial assessments

Page 21: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Step 2: InformationStep 1 ScopePolicy framework

Key resources Issues, Priorities

Step 2 Information

• For each resource & scenario feature:

InformationComplete data

inventory, generation &

modeling

– Establish an expert/group– Identify & search for datay– Identify data gaps & determine ability to

fill

Page 22: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Filling Data Gaps: Species Distribution Modeling

Scale-appropriate ith i imap with precision

and reasonable accuracy suitable for assessment andassessment and planning

Can also be used toCan also be used to model expected future distribution under climate h ( ithchange (with

caution!)

Page 23: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Step 2: Information

• For resources to be assessed:– Expert working groups determine sensitivitiesExpert working groups determine sensitivities

and conservation requirements, e.g.,:• How resources respond to scenario featuresp• Minimum required occurrence size• Project retention goal (percent, integer)

Page 24: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

RESOURCE INFO COMPLETE,RESOURCE INFO COMPLETE, NEXT: SCENARIOS

Page 25: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Step 3: Map Cumulative ScenariosStep 2

• Aggregate current scenario dataS i h

Step 2 InformationComplete data

inventory, generation &

• Save current scenario then save a copy to build next scenario

generation & modeling

– Add next features (e.g. urban growth forecast) to generate next

iStep 3 Map Cumulative Scenariosscenario

• Repeat for all scenarios & d t

ScenariosTime series,

alternative futures

document

Page 26: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

ESVNWR Scenario Data SourcesSources

Page 27: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Scenario Integration

1) Conservation lands For each scenario

Cumulative across time series scenarios

Feature types (what happens on the ground)l d

2) Disturbances

• land use• land management• invasive species,

disease, pestsP di t d di t b• Predicted disturbance (storm surge/SLR, wildfire, etc.)

• Mitigation/restoration practices

3) Infrastructure

practicesCausal Types (what

causes it to happen)• Policies mechanisms

& Regulations

4) Land use and

g• Funding mechanisms• Ecological principles

e.g., “succession”• Other drivers like 4) Land use and

management policies

Land-use Type Policy Type

“climate change”

Page 28: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Scenario Integration

Sheldon-Hart Mtn example2025 scenario incorporating:• Current land management

(+ proposed end of Sheldon horse grazing)Sheldon horse grazing)

• Current urban & ag uses• Current & future

infrastructure (pipeline, transmission)

• Future renewable energy• Future renewable energy development

Page 29: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

SLR integrated with urban growth & forestry management changes

Page 30: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Steps 4: Evaluate Scenario Effects

• Conduct spatial intersect and analyses to determine scenarioanalyses to determine scenario effects on resources

• Generate output maps indicatingGenerate output maps indicating areas of loss, damage, reduced condition, etc.

Step 3 Map Cumulative ScenariosTime series,

• Generate tabular reports for resource impacts

Time series, alternative

futures

p• Review outputs among experts Step 4 Evaluate

Scenario Effects R lResource goal gaps,

key stressors & locations

Page 31: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Scenario Evaluation of Goal Achievement (Vista model)

Element Retention GoalsElement Retention Goals

Impact Maps

Element DistributionSpatial Intersect

or Conditionor Condition Model & Reqs

Lookup

Q tit ti R t1Scenario

Element Response/SensitivityTo Land Use/Activity

Quantitative Reports

Scenario Outputs

21

2

Scenario

Condition Condition

Page 32: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Basic Vista Cumulative Effects Scenario

DEMOEvaluation

DEMO

Page 33: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Detailed Models for Climate Change Effects Exist

Mid Mid

MC-1VDDT

seral

Open

Late seral

Open

Early

All

seral

Closed

Late seral

Closed

Mid seral

Mid seralGlobal

Change Open

Late seral

Open

Early

All

seral

Closed

Late seral

Closed

Global Dynamic Vegetation

Potential

60%

70%

80%

Idaho FescueJ i

Model

20%

30%

40%

50%

perc

ent o

f are

a

JuniperLodgepole DryMixed Conifer DryMixed Conifer MoistPonderosaPonderosa XericBig SageSpruce FirSheldon-Hart

0%

10%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300

year

Sheldon Hart Climate Changes

Page 34: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Steps in Detail: 4 Evaluate Scenario EffectsUsing VDDT to evaluate grazing effects in Sheldon-Hart Mtn with

li t h 150 ti fclimate change over 150 yr timeframe

Page 35: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Step 5: Develop Strategies

• Review evaluation results from Step 4: is action needed for what because ofis action needed, for what because of what?

• Identify key stressors and evaluate the ability to mitigate

• Upcoming resource: FWS/NatureServe best practices for adaptationbest practices for adaptationStep 5 Develop

StrategiesMitigation,

adaptation, change prioritiespriorities

Step 4 Evaluate Scenario Effects R lResource goal gaps,

key stressors & locations

Page 36: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Step 5: Develop Strategies

• Apply mitigation following the mitigation hierarchyhierarchy– Avoid future stressors by removing /

relocating them to a less sensitive areag– Minimize through timing or design of stressor– Restore condition or recreate habitat– Offset by conserving, restoring other location

• Also may conclude:y– Resource is capable of adapting (assisted or

non-assisted)– No mitigation or adaptation is feasible

Page 37: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based
Page 38: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Step 6: Inform Alternatives

• Document what resources / stressors won’t be

Step 6 Inform Alternatives Spatial, non-

spatial actions addressed as infeasible and why

spatial actions

• Integrate non-spatial strategies into description of

Step 5 Develop StrategiesMitigation,

alternatives for future action• Forward spatial strategies

Mitigation, adaptation, change

priorities

p ginto alternative scenario developmentp

Page 39: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Step 6: Inform Alternatives

Example AlternativeSheldon-Hart Mtn NWRRefuge-compatible management (blue) proposed for areas aroundproposed for areas around and between the refuges to conserve species

l ti d hpopulations and pronghorn migration

Page 40: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Relocating Proposed Development to Avoid

DEMO

g p pNear Term Conflicts and Future SLR Hazard

DEMO

Page 41: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Planning Processes

Step 6 Inform Alternatives Spatial, non-

spatial actions

FORWARDING RESULTS INTOFORWARDING RESULTS INTO PLANNING PROCESSES

Page 42: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Forward Results into Planning Processes

Chula Vista example

Page 43: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Forward Results into Planning Processes

• Provide results, considering:A t d t d i f ti– Access to products and source information

– Interpretive materials at different levels of kno ledge for different sectorsknowledge for different sectors

– Outreach to educate about the results and productsproducts

– Technical & scientific assistance in the use of the productsthe products

Page 44: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Forward Results into Planning ProcessesCoastal Resilience Tool example

Page 45: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

What We Learned from Current Pilots

• A RVA for a cluster of refuges can be conducted far more efficiently than for refuges individually

• A subregion is probably more appropriate for current climate data application than individual refuges

F i i t li t h l t d t• Forming appropriate climate change related assessment questions is new for most planners and land managers and takes time.

• Detailed climate effects analyses is complicated and time and resource intensive so best done in collaboration with l i tit ti i (lik l dlarge institutions over a region (like a landscape conservation cooperative)

Page 46: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Wrap-up

• Questions? Comments?AcknowledgementsContent derived from work or funding by:• Mission-Aransas NERR Project (Packard

Foundation)• US Fish & Wildlife Service• Oregon & Virginia Natural Heritage Programs• Transportation Research Board• Georgia DNR & Woodruff Foundation

Discuss trends and challenges?

Page 47: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

S h i ( f ) CC

Trends in Evolving Practice

Some areas that excite (or frustrate) CC practitioners and researchers:• Evolution of thinking:• Evolution of thinking:

– Maybe things are more adaptable then we thought (every species has been through climate change(every species has been through climate change before) but they still need the room to adapt

– Maybe salt marsh doesn’t protect as much as we y pthought (subsidence, accretion, width, room to migrate)

M b i i i j d i d– Maybe some invasive species are just adapting and should be managed rather than extirpated (what’s the new normal?))

Page 48: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

C i i i i bi di i d

Trends in Evolving Practice (cont)

• Continuing integration among biodiversity and other sectors while avoiding maladaptive responses:responses: – Ecological vulnerability assessment + planning for

human safetyhuman safety

– protecting development and infrastructure investments

– potential human relocation needs

• Timing of when to integrate actions into plansTiming of when to integrate actions into plans and act on them relative to uncertainty in future forecasts (see next)( )

Page 49: Traditional Scenario Based AhApproaches - OpenChannels webinar 0711.pdf · Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based

Interaction of climate effects knowledge, uncertainty, and timing of actiony, g

Some key questions to grapple with:• If a change isn’t forecast to happen for 30 years how should it affect

management now?management now?• If a forecast has high uncertainty what should I do about it?• If we’re going to lose a species anyway should I still manage for it?

Future Knowledge: research, monitoring, adaptive management

Current Knowledge

adaptive management

Time

Current Stressors Novel Stressors

Current Knowledge

2100?

Novel EcosystemsCurrent Stressors Novel Stressors Novel Ecosystems

Plan 2010-2025 Plan 2025-2040 Plan 2040-2065 Plan 2065-2080