traditional scenario based ahapproaches - openchannels webinar 0711.pdf · integrating climate...
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Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning into Adaptation Planning into Traditional Scenario Based A hApproaches EBM Tools Webinar
July 13, 2011
Patrick Crist & Ian VarleyNatureServeNatureServe
enda *
Age • Introductions & background on the framework
The Frame ork o er ie• The Framework overview
• Details of steps with examples from pilot projects
• Intersperse some live demo with NatureServe Vista
• Wrap-up questions and discussions
Framework Overview: what are its origins?
• FWS cooperative agreement: the Refuge Vulnerability Assessment frameworkVulnerability Assessment framework
• The Integrated Land-Sea Planning h / t lkitapproach / toolkit
• The transportation Cumulative Effects Assessment and Alternatives framework
• Methodology work to develop NatureServe gy pVista DSS
Key Jargon
• Mitigation (not reduction of carbon) used here interchangeably with climate adaptation
• Resource: any feature to assess, retain, y , ,plan around; AKA “element”
• Retention goal: percent or amount of• Retention goal: percent or amount of resource to retain
Framework Overview: what is it?
Spatially-enabled process to:
• Identify resources of concern• Identify key stressors including effects of• Identify key stressors including effects of
climate change• Conduct cumulative effects assessments• Conduct cumulative effects assessments
under multiple scenarios• Rapidly develop response strategies and• Rapidly develop response strategies and
optional management scenarios• Facilitate cooperative planning with partners• Facilitate cooperative planning with partners
in other sectors throughout the landscape
Framework Overview: what is it based on?
Well-established concepts from:
• Vulnerability assessment• Cumulative effects assessment• Cumulative effects assessment,
integrating climate effectsTh iti ti ( t li t ) hi h• The mitigation (not climate) hierarchy (avoid, minimize, restore, offsetS t ti ti l i• Systematic conservation planning
• Ecosystem-based & adaptive management
PROCESS WORKFLOWPROCESS WORKFLOW
Key Jargon
• Scenarios: the things to compare your resource objectives againstresource objectives against– Current/baseline scenario
F t i– Forecast scenario– Proposed scenario– Typically time series– Cumulative: current stressors + future
Process Workflow (abbreviated from handbook)Planning C ll b tiStep 1 Scope
Policy frameworkKey resources
Issues, Priorities
Planning Processes
Collaboration Processes
Step 6 Inform Alternatives Spatial, non-
spatial actions
Step 2 InformationComplete data
inventory, generation & modelingp & modeling
Step 3 Map Cumulative ScenariosTi i
Step 5 Develop StrategiesMitigation,
Time series, alternative futures
Step 4 Evaluate Scenario Effects
adaptation, change priorities
Resource goal gaps, key stressors &
locations
Information Workflow
Stakeholder
Climate Change Effects
Direct Indirect
Context; Time, Funding, Geography, Policies, Leadership, Current efforts, etc
Stakeholder input: desired
resources, infrastructure
InfrastructureCurrent,
proposed, planned, forecast
Candidate Stressors
Infrastructure + all
Direct, Indirect
Stressors to be Assessed
Resource Candidates
planned, forecast
Multiple Scenarios
Current future
Resources (& infrastructure)
Selected critical infrastructure
Regulatory Requirements
Current, future, planned, forecastto be assessed
Available Strategies Vulnerability Assessment
Alternative ScenariosSector
Planning Alternative ScenariosPlanning Processes
Spatially enable process requires tools for:
• Gathering & managing information• Conducting advanced spatial analyses and• Conducting advanced spatial analyses and
modeling• Allowing easy repeat of what if questions• Allowing easy repeat of what if questions• Facilitating work across sectors and ecosystems
• The complexity of this work cannot be accomplished without themaccomplished without them
• That said, lacking data some of the analyses must be non-spatial or partially spatial-enabledmust be non-spatial or partially spatial-enabled
A Toolkit ApproachCurrent Tool Suite
Demonstrated Tool Interoperability
Potential tool interoperability
Data & Modeling ToolsPlanning Process Tools“Development”
Ecological Process
Geophysical Process ToolsN-SPECT, Climate Predictions Climate Predictions ModelsModels
Planning Process & Civic Engagement
E-Planning, Miradi, AnywarePolling
Planning Tools
Land Use Planning Tools CommunityViz
Framework Integration Biodiversity Tools
co og ca ocessTools Habitat Priority Planner, CircuitScape, VDDT
Energy and Infrastructure Planning
Tools CommunityViz
gTool
NatureServe Vista
Biodiversity ToolsMapping and Distribution Modeling Tools – e.g., See5, MaxEnt
Ecosystem
Tools QuantM
Forestry Tools yServices InVEST
Conservation & Mitigation Tools
Land Allocation/ Optimization ToolsMarxan, ZonationZonation, C, C--PlanPlan
Mitigation PlanningVista Site Explorer, Mitigation Query Tool
Other interactions among tools not shown for clarity
On the land, in the water, anywhere on the globe
SURDNASURDNAFOUNDATIONFOUNDATIONSURDNASURDNA
FOUNDATIONFOUNDATIONSURDNASURDNA
FOUNDATIONFOUNDATION
Why the right tool for this job?• Free ArcView platform extension• Robust tool for cumulative effects• Robust tool for cumulative effects
assessment• A framework tool for integrating
information across sectors, tecosystems, sources
• Assists from initial information gathering through assessment, development of alternatives, pplanning, implementation, and adaptive management
• Professional engineering, full integrated manual, tech support &integrated manual, tech support & training available, endowment to maintain it.
STEP DETAILSSTEP DETAILS
Step1: Scope Step 1 ScopePolicy framework
• Determine the resources to be assessed
Key resources Issues, Priorities
• Determine the resources to be assessed using laws, regulations, stakeholder and scientific inputscientific input
Building Block: Resources
Biodiversity• Species
• Ecosystems
• Habitats & Communities
Geophysical land unitsAlready identified priority areasAlready identified priority areasCultural Elements• Vulnerable human populations
S i i• Scenic views
• Archaeological & cultural sites
• Recreation areas
C iti l I f t tCritical Infrastructure• Escape routes
• Water control structures
• Hospitals
• Emergency response facilities
C t t A l iC t t A l iStep1: Scope
Context AnalysisContext Analysis
Two contextsTwo contexts
1.1. Ecoregion: helps establish priority Ecoregion: helps establish priority 1.1. Ecoregion: helps establish priority Ecoregion: helps establish priority resources within the project arearesources within the project area
22 Supporting landscape/seascape: within Supporting landscape/seascape: within 2.2. Supporting landscape/seascape: within Supporting landscape/seascape: within which detailed spatial analyses is which detailed spatial analyses is conductedconductedconductedconducted
E t Sh f Vi i i NWRC (1850 )
Issues: Urbanization, sea level rise, habitat management
Eastern Shore of Virginia NWRC (1850 ac)
conflicts
Sh ld /H t M t i NWRC (850k )
Issues: feral horses, history of grazing and water development,
Sheldon/Hart Mountain NWRC (850k ac)
invasives and juniper expansion, expected deleterious climate changes on species composition and ecological integrity
Step1: Scope
• Determine the scenarios to use for assessmentassessment– Current
U b i ti b ild t f t & l d– Urbanization build out or forecast & planned infrastructure (e.g., 15-20 years out)Cli t h ff t ( 20– Climate change effects (e.g., 20 year increments)
D t i f ibl ti l d ti l• Determine feasible spatial and non-spatial assessments
Step 2: InformationStep 1 ScopePolicy framework
Key resources Issues, Priorities
Step 2 Information
• For each resource & scenario feature:
InformationComplete data
inventory, generation &
modeling
– Establish an expert/group– Identify & search for datay– Identify data gaps & determine ability to
fill
Filling Data Gaps: Species Distribution Modeling
Scale-appropriate ith i imap with precision
and reasonable accuracy suitable for assessment andassessment and planning
Can also be used toCan also be used to model expected future distribution under climate h ( ithchange (with
caution!)
Step 2: Information
• For resources to be assessed:– Expert working groups determine sensitivitiesExpert working groups determine sensitivities
and conservation requirements, e.g.,:• How resources respond to scenario featuresp• Minimum required occurrence size• Project retention goal (percent, integer)
RESOURCE INFO COMPLETE,RESOURCE INFO COMPLETE, NEXT: SCENARIOS
Step 3: Map Cumulative ScenariosStep 2
• Aggregate current scenario dataS i h
Step 2 InformationComplete data
inventory, generation &
• Save current scenario then save a copy to build next scenario
generation & modeling
– Add next features (e.g. urban growth forecast) to generate next
iStep 3 Map Cumulative Scenariosscenario
• Repeat for all scenarios & d t
ScenariosTime series,
alternative futures
document
ESVNWR Scenario Data SourcesSources
Scenario Integration
1) Conservation lands For each scenario
Cumulative across time series scenarios
Feature types (what happens on the ground)l d
2) Disturbances
• land use• land management• invasive species,
disease, pestsP di t d di t b• Predicted disturbance (storm surge/SLR, wildfire, etc.)
• Mitigation/restoration practices
3) Infrastructure
practicesCausal Types (what
causes it to happen)• Policies mechanisms
& Regulations
4) Land use and
g• Funding mechanisms• Ecological principles
e.g., “succession”• Other drivers like 4) Land use and
management policies
Land-use Type Policy Type
“climate change”
Scenario Integration
Sheldon-Hart Mtn example2025 scenario incorporating:• Current land management
(+ proposed end of Sheldon horse grazing)Sheldon horse grazing)
• Current urban & ag uses• Current & future
infrastructure (pipeline, transmission)
• Future renewable energy• Future renewable energy development
SLR integrated with urban growth & forestry management changes
Steps 4: Evaluate Scenario Effects
• Conduct spatial intersect and analyses to determine scenarioanalyses to determine scenario effects on resources
• Generate output maps indicatingGenerate output maps indicating areas of loss, damage, reduced condition, etc.
Step 3 Map Cumulative ScenariosTime series,
• Generate tabular reports for resource impacts
Time series, alternative
futures
p• Review outputs among experts Step 4 Evaluate
Scenario Effects R lResource goal gaps,
key stressors & locations
Scenario Evaluation of Goal Achievement (Vista model)
Element Retention GoalsElement Retention Goals
Impact Maps
Element DistributionSpatial Intersect
or Conditionor Condition Model & Reqs
Lookup
Q tit ti R t1Scenario
Element Response/SensitivityTo Land Use/Activity
Quantitative Reports
Scenario Outputs
21
2
Scenario
Condition Condition
Basic Vista Cumulative Effects Scenario
DEMOEvaluation
DEMO
Detailed Models for Climate Change Effects Exist
Mid Mid
MC-1VDDT
seral
Open
Late seral
Open
Early
All
seral
Closed
Late seral
Closed
Mid seral
Mid seralGlobal
Change Open
Late seral
Open
Early
All
seral
Closed
Late seral
Closed
Global Dynamic Vegetation
Potential
60%
70%
80%
Idaho FescueJ i
Model
20%
30%
40%
50%
perc
ent o
f are
a
JuniperLodgepole DryMixed Conifer DryMixed Conifer MoistPonderosaPonderosa XericBig SageSpruce FirSheldon-Hart
0%
10%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300
year
Sheldon Hart Climate Changes
Steps in Detail: 4 Evaluate Scenario EffectsUsing VDDT to evaluate grazing effects in Sheldon-Hart Mtn with
li t h 150 ti fclimate change over 150 yr timeframe
Step 5: Develop Strategies
• Review evaluation results from Step 4: is action needed for what because ofis action needed, for what because of what?
• Identify key stressors and evaluate the ability to mitigate
• Upcoming resource: FWS/NatureServe best practices for adaptationbest practices for adaptationStep 5 Develop
StrategiesMitigation,
adaptation, change prioritiespriorities
Step 4 Evaluate Scenario Effects R lResource goal gaps,
key stressors & locations
Step 5: Develop Strategies
• Apply mitigation following the mitigation hierarchyhierarchy– Avoid future stressors by removing /
relocating them to a less sensitive areag– Minimize through timing or design of stressor– Restore condition or recreate habitat– Offset by conserving, restoring other location
• Also may conclude:y– Resource is capable of adapting (assisted or
non-assisted)– No mitigation or adaptation is feasible
Step 6: Inform Alternatives
• Document what resources / stressors won’t be
Step 6 Inform Alternatives Spatial, non-
spatial actions addressed as infeasible and why
spatial actions
• Integrate non-spatial strategies into description of
Step 5 Develop StrategiesMitigation,
alternatives for future action• Forward spatial strategies
Mitigation, adaptation, change
priorities
p ginto alternative scenario developmentp
Step 6: Inform Alternatives
Example AlternativeSheldon-Hart Mtn NWRRefuge-compatible management (blue) proposed for areas aroundproposed for areas around and between the refuges to conserve species
l ti d hpopulations and pronghorn migration
Relocating Proposed Development to Avoid
DEMO
g p pNear Term Conflicts and Future SLR Hazard
DEMO
Planning Processes
Step 6 Inform Alternatives Spatial, non-
spatial actions
FORWARDING RESULTS INTOFORWARDING RESULTS INTO PLANNING PROCESSES
Forward Results into Planning Processes
Chula Vista example
Forward Results into Planning Processes
• Provide results, considering:A t d t d i f ti– Access to products and source information
– Interpretive materials at different levels of kno ledge for different sectorsknowledge for different sectors
– Outreach to educate about the results and productsproducts
– Technical & scientific assistance in the use of the productsthe products
Forward Results into Planning ProcessesCoastal Resilience Tool example
What We Learned from Current Pilots
• A RVA for a cluster of refuges can be conducted far more efficiently than for refuges individually
• A subregion is probably more appropriate for current climate data application than individual refuges
F i i t li t h l t d t• Forming appropriate climate change related assessment questions is new for most planners and land managers and takes time.
• Detailed climate effects analyses is complicated and time and resource intensive so best done in collaboration with l i tit ti i (lik l dlarge institutions over a region (like a landscape conservation cooperative)
Wrap-up
• Questions? Comments?AcknowledgementsContent derived from work or funding by:• Mission-Aransas NERR Project (Packard
Foundation)• US Fish & Wildlife Service• Oregon & Virginia Natural Heritage Programs• Transportation Research Board• Georgia DNR & Woodruff Foundation
Discuss trends and challenges?
S h i ( f ) CC
Trends in Evolving Practice
Some areas that excite (or frustrate) CC practitioners and researchers:• Evolution of thinking:• Evolution of thinking:
– Maybe things are more adaptable then we thought (every species has been through climate change(every species has been through climate change before) but they still need the room to adapt
– Maybe salt marsh doesn’t protect as much as we y pthought (subsidence, accretion, width, room to migrate)
M b i i i j d i d– Maybe some invasive species are just adapting and should be managed rather than extirpated (what’s the new normal?))
C i i i i bi di i d
Trends in Evolving Practice (cont)
• Continuing integration among biodiversity and other sectors while avoiding maladaptive responses:responses: – Ecological vulnerability assessment + planning for
human safetyhuman safety
– protecting development and infrastructure investments
– potential human relocation needs
• Timing of when to integrate actions into plansTiming of when to integrate actions into plans and act on them relative to uncertainty in future forecasts (see next)( )
Interaction of climate effects knowledge, uncertainty, and timing of actiony, g
Some key questions to grapple with:• If a change isn’t forecast to happen for 30 years how should it affect
management now?management now?• If a forecast has high uncertainty what should I do about it?• If we’re going to lose a species anyway should I still manage for it?
Future Knowledge: research, monitoring, adaptive management
Current Knowledge
adaptive management
Time
Current Stressors Novel Stressors
Current Knowledge
2100?
Novel EcosystemsCurrent Stressors Novel Stressors Novel Ecosystems
Plan 2010-2025 Plan 2025-2040 Plan 2040-2065 Plan 2065-2080