scenario design - european commission€¦ · scenario is to illustrate what reduction is maximally...

Mark de Bel Carlos Benitez Sanz Sune Djurhuus [February ndash 2019]

Scenario Design

Task B3 of the BLUE2 project ldquoStudy on EU integrated

policy assessment for the freshwater and marine

environment on the economic benefits of EU water

policy and on the costs of its non- implementationrdquo

BLUE2 Study on EU Integrated Policy Assessment for the Freshwater and Marine Environment on the

Economic Benefits of EU Water Policy and on the Costs of its Non-Implementation

Citation

De Bel M Benitez Sanz C and Djurhuus S (2019) ldquoScenario Designrdquo Deliverable to

Task B3 of the BLUE2 project ldquoStudy on EU integrated policy assessment for the

freshwater and marine environment on the economic benefits of EU water policy and

on the costs of its non- implementationrdquo Report to DG ENV

Legal Notice

This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the

views only of the authors and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use

which may be made of the information contained therein

STICHTING DELTARES

Boussinesqweg 1 2629 HV Delft

The Netherlands

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Directorate-General for Environment Directorate C ndash Quality of Life mdash Veronica Manfredi Unit C2 mdash Marine Environment amp Water Indiustry

Contact Jacques Delsalle

E-mail JacquesDelsalleeceuropaeu

European Commission B-1049 Brussels

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Directorate-General for Environment

BLUE2 Study on EU Integrated Policy Assessment for the Freshwater and Marine Environment on the Economic Benefits of EU Water Policy and on the Costs of its Non-Implementation

Scenario Design






More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (httpeuropaeu)

Luxembourg Publications Office of the European Union 2019

Print ISBN 978-92-79-45908-5 ISSN 1831-2802 doi102838397707 DS-AU-15-001-EN-C

PDF ISBN 978-92-79-45907-8 ISSN 2443-5228 doi102838941824 DS-AU-15-001-EN-N

copy European Union 2019

Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7

1 PREFACE 10

2 INTRODUCTION 11

3 METHODOLOGY 12

31 Scenario development 12

32 Description of the five scenarios 15

33 The Scenario Generation Tool 18

34 The Scenario Generation Tool workflow 18

4 REFERENCES 23

5 LIST OF ACRONYMS 24

List of Tables

Table 1 Included measures in the BAU scenario 15

Table 2 Measures included in the MTFR for the 5 pressures used in BLUE2 22

List of Figures

Figure 1 The BLUE2 study Part A and Part B and the defined tasks under each study part

10

Figure 2 Steps in the scenario development approach 13

Figure 3 Illustration of development of pressures under external drivers and PoM 14

Figure 4 Scenario tool workflow and functionality diagram 19

Figure 5 The Scenario Generation Tool interface 20


Page 7

Executive Summary

This report presents the implementation scenarios that were developed in task B3 of the

BLUE2 study The work in task B3 is interconnected with the other three tasks of part B

and with the JRC models for the aquatic environment as illustrated in the scheme below

Task B3 provides five scenarios that DG ENV can use to estimate the effectiveness of

proposed measures The five scenarios are the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario the

Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction (MTFR) scenario and three specific scenarios for

nutrients plastic litter and when sufficient evidence has become available for

contaminants The details of the measures that are included in the scenarios for each of

the pressures (nutrients water abstraction contaminants plastics and fisheries) are

described in task B2 (measures)

The BAU scenario serves as the reference for the scenario comparisons and includes the

measures that the member states have reported in the Programmes of Measures (PoMs)

of the WFD for implementation for the period 2009ndash2015 and the period 2016ndash2021 For

some Member States it also includes the measures from the PoMs for the period 2022ndash

2027

The MTFR scenario is defined as all measures that are currently available to reduce the

pressures under consideration for the waterbodies In the selection and evaluation of these

measures the costs of the measures are not considered The objective of the MTFR

scenario is to illustrate what reduction is maximally obtainable for the pressures under

consideration

In principle the policy space for the implementation of new or additional measures to the

current policy is the difference between the BAU and MTFR scenarios Cost-efficiency and

implementation capacity can thus guide the implementation of measures Achievements of

B1

Database of Pressures

B2

Database of Measures related to

the Pressures

including

CostsImpacts

B3

Scenario definitionsBAU MTFRnutrients

plastic contaminants

B4

Valuation methods

Application to model outputs

Water abstractionNutrients

ContaminantsFisheries

Plastic litter

JRC model runs

LISFLOODGREEN+

MMF

for five scenarios

B3

Scenario tools

B4

Model output database

B4

Result databases

Tools

EU-wide databases

EU Directives and reports

Regional Sea Conventions

EU-funded projects

scientific literature

country specific

information

etc


Page 8

the different intermediary scenarios can consequently be obtained from the scenario tool

The scenario tool assumes a linear relationship with respect to effectiveness between the

BAU and the MTFR scenario in the calculation of the results The intermediate scenarios

serve to investigate the results of a dedicated approach towards a specific pressure

Nutrients scenario

In the nutrients scenario the focus is on reduction of the nutrient loads through the

reduction of (diffuse) emissions from agriculture ie the focus is on the singular measure

to reduce fertiliser input (for agriculture) of N to 170 kgha Furthermore depending on

the actual implementation level of the UWWTD the full compliance to this Directive can be

added to this scenario

Plastics scenario

For plastics several EU Directives are currently in place that include measures which affect

plastic littering Recently the EC has published proposals for Directives on improved Port

Reception Facilities (January 2018) and on Single Use Plastics (May 2018) The measures

and impacts of these Directives are part of the dedicated plastics scenario together with

several additional measures that are being implemented or prepared by different member

states Calculations will follow once the JRC modelling train has become operational for this

pressure

Contaminants scenario

To date it has not been possible to establish a practical methodology to characterise the

current situation nor to properly define a contaminants BAU scenario and identify

measures that could be included in a MTFR or intermediate scenario This has led to the

provisional conclusion that currently no measures can be defined nor effects modelled

The Scenario Generation Tool

The scenario generation tool enables the definition and creation of policy scenarios as well

as the ability to export these scenarios to the JRC modelling setup The viewer enables

users to visually inspect the created scenarios as well as the data outcome The overall

scenario workflow and tool functionality is displayed in the figure below

The data collection and development of the BAU and MTFR scenarios (Steps 1 and 2) have

been described in detail in the Task B2 report and in paragraph 32 of this Task B3 report


Page 9

The data stored in the data base (Step 3) includes the programmed costs (PoMs private

and public investments and operational cost) and the performance improvement (load

reduction andor relative efficiency) in the BAU and the MTFR scenarios (Steps 1 2 and

3) The BAU and MTFR scenarios have been selected as the lower and upper limits of

investment respectively for possible future scenarios

When defining a scenario Step 4 the reduction in the targeted pressures (either relative

() load or area) is calculated using a linear interpolation between the calculated outcome

for the BAU and MTFR scenario costs and performance improvements for the specific

measure and the related pressure

The BAU is the baseline scenario and additional investments to the BAU (investment +

operational cost) are used to define and create new scenarios With the generation tool it

is possible to select a pre-defined level of effort (BAU +10 +25 +50 and +75 or

MTFR) or investment (euro) and calculate the reduction in pressures for that scenario

Additional pre-defined scenarios are available for the assessment of the nutrient loads from

UWWTPs describing the BAU + full compliance with the UWWTD scenario reduction of

manure application to 170 kg Nha in all Nitrates Vulnerable Zones and plastics litter

scenario The calculated reduction in pressures is estimated based on linear interpolation

between expected pressures for the BAU and MTFR scenarios

A scenario can be further refined by running the scenario in a specified geographic region

Once the scenario tool has been run Step 6 the results can be visualised in the viewer

and a data and metadata output is created The scenario output data and metadata are

saved in the data base The data can be readily downloaded for further inspection as csv

file The produced outputs in the data base are the inputs to the JRC models Step 7


0

1 Preface

This report is one product of the ldquoStudy on European Union (EU) integrated policy

assessment for the freshwater and marine environment on the economic benefits of EU

water policy and on the costs of its non-implementationrdquo (BLUE2) commissioned by the

European Commission (EC) The overall aim of the BLUE2 study is to support the EC in

defining a better path for the development of the EU water acquis with the ultimate goal

to shift the EU towards the green and blue economy

BLUE2 is comprised of two parts as shown in Figure 1

Figure 1 The BLUE2 study Part A and Part B and the defined tasks under each

study part

The overall objective of Part A of BLUE2 is to increase the understanding of the full

(economic) value that water and water services generate and how water resources

contribute to economic development and citizens well-being The findings of BLUE2 will

further assist in quantifying how the EU water acquis contributes to this value generation

using the most appropriate valuation techniques

The overall objective of Part B of BLUE2 is to develop a method for the integrated

socio-economic assessment of policies affecting the quality of the freshwater and marine

environment to be applied in connection with the water and marine modelling framework

held by the Commissions Joint Research Centre (JRC) The method and accompanying

tools will be used to support policy development In particular Part B aims to establish an

EU pressures inventory and measures data base Additionally Part B will increase the

understanding of the cost-effectiveness of measures and the benefits arising from a

reduction of pressures on the freshwater and marine environment through the application

of two online modelling tools A Scenario Generation Tool for defining and generating policy

scenarios for JRC modelling and an Evaluation Tool for cost-benefit assessment of the

created scenarios

In this context this report presents the results of Task B3 Task B3 provides the definition

and development of 5 scenarios or policy alternatives to assess the impact of the

European Water Acquis Furthermore a scenario tool is developed that enables defining

and creating policy scenarios from the measures and pressures data bases collected in

Tasks B1 and B2 The created scenarios of measures cost-efficiency are used for further

assessment in JRC modelling and in Task B4 of the BLUE2 Project


Page 11

2 Introduction

Within Task B3 of the BLUE2 Project five scenarios or policy alternatives are developed

to assess the impact of several European water-related Directives

- Water Framework Directive (WFD)

- Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD)

- Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (UWWTD)

- Drinking Water Directive (DWD)

- Nitrates Directive (ND) and

- Industrial Emissions Directive (IED)

The scenarios will serve to guide the Member States in their development of policy

alternatives - to meet the targets set by the different directives - under circumstances

when pressures increase within a catchment area because of increasing pressures from for

example demographic or economic developments Under Task B3 five different policy

scenarios have been developed out of which two are pre-defined namely (1) Business as

Usual (BAU) scenario and (2) Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction (MTFR) scenario

The goal of Task B3 is to provide policy scenarios from which policy makers can select

possible actions (measures) to mitigate existing and potentially increasing pressures that

arise from macro-scale developments (eg population economy climate etc)

Based on the different measures modelled in Task B2 and the economic evaluation

developed in Task B4 this should provide policy makers with a methodology to make a

comparison between the different policy scenarios In order to facilitate the selection of

scenarios a number of underlying macro-level assumptions are herein evaluated and a

selection of indicators for the pressures established

In developing policy scenarios it is essential to have a clear picture of the reference

situation ie where are we starting from and of the policy objective ie where do we

want to go Both should be established according to the timeline (ie what is the starting

point and when do we want to have reached our goal) ndash see also Figure 2 for a graphical

representation of this process Furthermore it needs to be established (1) how external

factors would influence the pressures under consideration (2) what is the effect of possible

policy measures on the pressures and (3) which indicators can be used to measure this

effect (ie dose-effect relations of measures or policy packages) To address these

particular aspects close collaboration with Tasks A3 and B2 has ensued This methodology

will be further elaborated in the next section


Page 12

3 Methodology

31 Scenario development

The goal of Task B3 is to provide a number of scenarios that the Directorate-General for

the Environment (DG ENV) can use to estimate the effectiveness of measures aimed at

achieving current policy goals and mitigating increasing pressures that arise from macro-

scale developments (eg population economy climate land-use etc) Task B3 has

furthermore developed a scenario generator tool to translate these scenario assumptions

into input data for the JRC models drawing upon the data bases developed in Tasks B1

and B2

When developing policy scenarios the first aspects to be resolved are the establishment

of the baseline of all pressures under consideration and an inventory of all measures that

are part of the currently approved and implemented policies - which would typically

comprise commitments up to 2021+ - along with budgets for the different Member States

This scenario is defined as the BAU scenario

The quantification of the policy scenarios was done through a number of successive steps

as shown in Figure 2 These steps are necessary to get a realistic evaluation of the

scenarios and their impact on the pressures as defined within the BLUE2 project A planning

horizon up to (approximately) 2040 was chosen The development of the drivers will be

taken from sources like the Ageing study (EU 2015)1 and developments as presented in

the CAPRI2 project as included in the JRC models External macro-scale changes such as

climate change and socio-economic developments are incorporated in the LISFLOOD

model In this model historical climate scenarios (1981-2010) and future projections

(2011- 2100) from 11 EURO-CORDEX climate projections under the RCP85 emissions

pathways3 were used to drive the hydrological calculations4 Changes in land-use are based

on the LUISA reference land use projections 2010-2050 Relevant regional inputs in

LISFLOOD are Eurostat for population projections (EUROPOP 2011 scenario) and GEM-E3

for economic projections Furthermore both water demand and availability are changing

dynamically in space and time due to a variety of factors like land use economic

population and climate changes This is taken into account through downscaling national

demographic projection numbers to achieve a higher spatial granularity resulting in the

projected spatial changes in population between 2010 and 2050

1 httpeceuropaeueconomy_financepublicationseuropean_economy2015pdfee3_enpdf

2 httpwwwcapri-modelorgdokuwikidokuphp

3 Riahi K Rao S Krey V Cho C Chirkov V Fischer G Kindermann G Nakicenovic N and P Rafai (2011) RCP 85mdashA scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions Climatic Change 109 33ndash57 doi101007s10584-011-0149-y

4 Bisselink B Bernhard J Gelati E Adamovic M Guenther S Mentaschi L and De Roo A Impact of a changing climate land use and water usage on Europersquos water resources EUR 29130 EN Publications Office of the European Union Luxembourg 2018 ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927


Page 13

Figure 2 Steps in the scenario development approach

The calculation of the BAU scenario is based on the Programme of Measures (PoMs) as

reported by the Member States for the combined Directives The reported measures are

compiled in a data base developed under Task B2 of this BLUE2 Project the effect of which

is modelled by the relevant models at JRC LISFLOOD GREEN+ and MMF

After establishing the development of the pressures under the changing external factors

the effects of the PoMs are assessed The PoMs will provide the measures in the different

Key Type Measures (KTM) categories for each of the Member States Currently the PoMs

for the first River Basin Management Plans (RBMP) are available for the period 2009ndash2015

which are assumed to be already implemented as are the PoMs for the second River Basin

Management Plans (RBMP2) for the period 2016ndash2021 for which implementation is

currently ongoing The BAU is formulated based on these PoMs as reported by the different

Member States together with the KTMs and more detailed measures as reported in the

RBMP This process is illustrated by Figure 3

In Figure 3 the baseline increase of the pressures is represented by the red line ldquoBaseline

of pressuresrdquo Meanwhile the level of effort under the PoMs and the resulting decrease in

pressures is represented in Figure 3 through the black line ldquolevel of effortrdquo PoM1 PoM2

and PoM3 (the BAU scenario) Finally the orange line ldquoactual status of pressurerdquo represents

the effect of the PoM on the pressures As the PoM are only defined up to 202127 the

pressures would increase again as a result of the external developments if no additional

measures were to be implemented Consequently in the absence of implementation of

relevant measures under existing policies for the reduction of the pressures the result

would be an increasing level of pressures as is illustrated in the orange line ldquoBAUrdquo for the

period after 2027 However when measures will continue to be implemented ongoing

reduction of the pressures would continue The maximum obtainable reduction would be

when all measures under the MTFR would be implemented (the MTFR scenario) as

illustrated by the orange line ldquoMTFRrdquo The reduction of pressures of any intermediate policy

scenario would by definition be between the BAU and MTFR scenarios

A key issue that has to be addressed is the fact that the costs of the measures are only

reported as one aggregated number per River Basin This total must be disaggregated in

order to obtain estimated investments at KTM level Details of the disaggregation process

are explained in Task B2

Measures included in the BAU for each MS are assumed to be targeted at the reduction of

the reported pressures When insufficient data is available on detailed measures in a

Member State the extrapolated budget (into RBMP3) is used to target measures at

pressures reported to be underperforming in the specific Member State There might be

some inadvertent bias towards measures for eutrophication reduction of contaminants and


Page 14

water abstraction as these are the pressures that are most prominently addressed within

the BLUE2 Project This will be avoided as far as possible however at this stage this bias

is difficult to avoid as no impact assessment will be made of other pressures In the future

this bias is easily overturned when additional pressures will be included in the impact

assessment

The impact assessment for the pressures will be absolute in terms of loads average

concentrations or quantity of water abstracted At present no insights into the actual status

of water bodies can be provided as the currently reported level of information regarding

KTMs and sub-measures is insufficiently detailed The ambition is to provide achievements

of the implemented PoMs and policy scenarios per Member State and (sub) river basin

catchment area

Figure 3 Illustration of development of pressures under external drivers and PoM

Next to the BAU an extreme scenario (ie the MTFR scenario) was defined by selecting all

measures that are currently available to reduce the pressures on the waterbodies In the

selection of the measures for the MTFR scenario costs are not considered The sole

objective of the MTFR scenario is to illustrate what is the maximum reduction possible

when applying all measures currently available Just like the BAU scenario the MTFR

scenario will be geared towards measures that have an impact on the selected pressures

As the MTFR scenario is defined as the scenario in which all technically feasible measures

are applied irrespective of costs this opens up some issues for discussion eg can we

assume zero-emission or assume zero-emission from point sources and reduced emissions

from diffuse sources Should we for example include ldquoinnovativerdquo measures like

widespread adaptation of organic farming or only include types of measures that are

already included in present PoMs

In a workshop that was held in Brussels on 6th February 2018 the BLUE2 Project Team

discussed the principles under which the MTFR policy scenarios could be designed There

was consensus that the MTFR scenario should also include innovative measures as long

as these have been proven on a TRL7 level not looking at current or future

implementation costs In Table 5 (see Section 34) the measures which have been included

in the MTFR scenario are provided

It should be noted however that the challenge in the establishment of the scenarios is to

reconcile the impact of the measures with the actual ldquostatusrdquo of the pressure ie that the

quantity of measures is in accordance with the level of the pressure in the catchment area

When insufficient information exists on the pressure(s) from the perspective of a specific

catchment area it might prove difficult to program an adequate or sufficient quantity of a

measure especially in the MTFR scenario This uncertainty may lead to under- or over-

programming of a (number of) KTMs


Page 15

32 Description of the five scenarios

In this section a short description of the different implementation scenarios is provided

including the measures that would be typically included for each scenario The BAU scenario

serves as the reference baseline for the scenario comparison and consists of the measures

that the Member States have reported in the PoM for implementation The other scenarios

are described in relation to their differences (ie additional measures implemented) to the

BAU scenario For the BAU scenario the measures are assumed to be implemented

consistently over the different Member States with the actual number of measures and

costs being provided in the Task B2 report This chapter as such only describes the

measures that are to be implemented under a specific scenario and does not differentiate

between the different Member States In addition to the BAU scenario there are the MTFR

and three intermediate scenarios

The goal of the MTFR scenario is to investigate the reduction of the pressures if all

measures that are technically feasible would be implemented without looking at the actual

costs of implementation In principle this would mean that there would be a policy space

for the implementation of measures between the BAU and the MTFR scenarios Cost-

efficiency and implementation capacity would thus guide the implementation of measures

Achievements of the different intermediary scenarios can be obtained from the scenario

tool which assumes a linear relationship with respect to effectiveness between the BAU

and the MTFR scenario The intermediate scenarios serve to investigate the achievement

of a dedicated approach towards a specific pressure

Below the scenarios are described in some more detail

BAU

The ldquobusiness as usualrdquo scenario consists of the measures that the different Member States

have reported for implementation in the PoM for the period 2009ndash2015 and the period

2016ndash2021 For some Member States it also includes the measures from the PoM for the

period 2022ndash2027 when these have been reported The actual measures that are included

in the BAU scenario vary significantly by Member State and are described in detail in the

Task B2 report With respect to the measures under the UWWTD full compliance for all

Member States has been assumed However the current implementation of measures

under the UWWTD would suggest that full compliance would in actuality be very difficult

to achieve within the remaining period Thus the question remains whether this will

warrant an adjustment of the BAU scenario The BAU serves as the reference scenario no

additional measures other than those that are described in the PoMs are included

Table 1 Included measures in the BAU scenario

Pressure Measures

Water Abstraction BAU

Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16

the actual implementation level of the UWWTD the full compliance to this directive can be


Table 2 Included measures in the Nutrients scenario

Pressure Measures Comments


Nutrients bull Full compliance UWWTD () bull Reducing manure application to 170 kg

Nha in all Nitrates Vulnerable Zones

UWWTD Depending on definition of the BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario

For plastics several EU-wide Directives are currently in place that include measures which

affect plastic littering The impacts of these measures on the loads entering the aquatic

environment are as yet not clear This requires detailed analyses as outlined in the Task

B1 report and in ICF and Eunomia (2018) which may be adopted by the JRC models

Adaptations to the JRC models to enable them to make calculations for these loads are in

preparation An overview of the most prominent measures at EU level that are included in

these Directives is included in the separate excel file plastic litter_scenario inputdata

sheet Measures per scenario Annex to the B2 report

Recently the EC has published proposals for Directives on Single Use Plastics5 (May 2018)

and improved Port Reception Facilities6 (January 2018) These Directives have not yet been

adopted but their expected impacts have been calculated by ICFEunomia These

measures and impacts can be fed into the plastics scenario together with several additional

measures that are being implemented or prepared by different Member States (for an

overview see Chapter 4 of the Task B2 report)

5 httpseceuropaeucommissionnewssingle-use-plastics-2018-may-28_en

6 httpseceuropaeutransportmodesmaritimenews2018-01-16-plastic-waste_en


Page 17

Table 3 Included measures in the Plastic litter BAU scenario



Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter

bull Implementation of proposed Directives for Single Use Plastics and improved

Port Reception Facilities bull EU-wide implementation of fishing for

litter and beach cleaning

Implementation pending while JRC models are made fit

Fisheries






Table 4 Included measures in the Contaminants BAU scenario



Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull

No quantifiable scenario possible at the moment

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario

The MTFR scenario investigates the reduction of the pressures if all measures that are

technically feasible is implemented without looking at the actual costs of implementation

The included measures for the five investigate pressures are shown in Table 4 In relation

to the measures concerning Urban Waste Water Treatment Plants (UWWTPs) there is an

outstanding issue on the inclusion of agglomerations smaller than 2000 population

equivalent (PE) with three stage treatment


Page 18

Table 5 Included measures in the five investigated pressuresrsquo MTFR scenarios


Water Abstraction bull Full conversion from surface to sprinkler

drip irrigation bull Network losses for drinking water

reduced to 5

Nutrients

bull NP removal in all UWWTP bull Reducing N surplus (input minus output)

to reach target levels bull Full implementation of separate

networks for rainwater and sewage

Possible difference between BLUE2 Task B2 and JRC (all ndashBLUE2- or only above 2000 PE

ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter

bull measures included in the BAU scenario

implemented EU-wide

bull measures included in the plastics

scenario ie implementation of SUP and

PRF Directives and of national

regulations

bull increased ambition levels for all relevant EU regulations (Waste Framework Directive Packaging and Packaging

Waste Directive including Plastic Bags Directive Circular Economy Package etc)

Fisheries To be defined at a later stage

33 The Scenario Generation Tool


as the ability to export these scenarios to the JRC modelling setup The scenario generation

tool is developed in an open source environment based on a PostgreSQLPostGIS data

base a python toolbox with functions to define and create new scenarios for the JRC

modelling team and a viewer (BLUE2 web portal) based on the open source software

(OpenEarth) framework called ldquoDeltares Data Viewerrdquo (by Deltares) The viewer enables

users to visually inspect the created scenarios as well as the data outcome as csv files

During the BLUE2 Project it was decided to incorporate both the scenario generation tool

and the scenario evaluation tool (Task B4) within this same software framework the BLUE2

web portal The scenario evaluation is described in Task B4 and as such will not be further

described here

34 The Scenario Generation Tool workflow

The overall scenario workflow and tool functionality is displayed in Figure 4 The figure

shows the setup for 3 measures already implemented and accessible online on the BLUE2

web portal The data base and scenario generator will be expanded with more measures

and exported to JRC upon finalisation of the BLUE2 study


Page 19

Figure 4 Scenario tool workflow and functionality diagram




and public investments and operations cost) and the performance improvement (load



investment respectively for possible future scenarios When calculating the percentage

reduction of water abstraction resulting from improvement of the irrigation networks (ie

reduction of losses) the scenario draws on the following data from the data base

bull Public Investment BAU 2016-2027

bull Private Investment BAU 2016-2027

bull Operation BAU 2016-2027

bull Performance improvement BAU

bull Surface improvement BAU 2016-2027 (ha)

bull Public Investment MTFR 2016-2027

bull Private Investment MTFR 2016-2027 private

bull Operation MTFR 2016-2027

bull Performance improvement MTFR

bull Surface improvement MTFR 2016-2027 (ha)






Page 20

The BAU is the baseline scenario and additional investment to the BAU (investment +


is possible to select a pre-defined level of investment (BAU +10 +25 +50 and

+75 or MTFR) or amount (euro) and calculate the reduction in pressures for that scenario




scenario The calculated reduction in pressures are rough estimates based on linear

interpolation between expected pressures for the BAU and MTFR scenarios

A scenario can include different levels of investment between the available measures Step

6 see Figure 5

Figure 5 The Scenario Generation Tool interface


The following geographical regions will be selectable

Selection by Member State

Selection by river basin (RB)

Selection by regional sea (including all river basins that drain into it)

Selection by sub-regional entity (multiple Member States) and all RB that drain into

it

Although at present the data is not available at RB level the function to select river basins

or regional seas or sub-regional entities and all RBs that drain into it has been built into

the tool for future functionality This has been conducted by creating a relationship between

the marine regions and the RBs in the data base




file To limit the size of the data base the scenario output data can be cleared occasionally

It is always possible to reproduce a scenario via the information in the metadata

The tool always runs the scenario on the smallest geographical unit available This means

that although the Viewer can display the data at Member State level the data will be

aggregated from NUTS2 in case this is the smallest unit available This has been chosen in

order to provide data on the finest scale to the JRC modelling The viewer can visualize

data on whichever scale available (EU Member State NUTS2 NUTS3 RB)


Page 21

The scenario tool provides different outputs per measure

For scenarios on irrigation water savings five results are currently available

Investment distribution (EUR)

Additional operation cost (EURyear)

Performance improvement ()

Total irrigation efficiency ()

Estimated improved surface area (ha)

For scenarios on urban water savings




Total urban water abstraction efficiency ()

Estimated population equivalent improvement (residents)

For scenarios on waste water nutrient load

Waste water treatment investment distribution (EUR)

UWWTD additional operation cost (EURyear)

BOD5 load (kgday)

Nitrogen load (kgday)

Phosphorous load (kgday)

BOD5 efficiency ()

Nitrogen efficiency ()

Phosphorous efficiency ()

For scenarios on combined sewer overflow nutrient load



The produced outputs in the data base are the inputs to the JRC models Step 7 The tool

can provide spatial outputs such as shapefiles but the key to JRC models is the reference

to the spatial unit such as NUTS2 regions A Comma Separated Values (csv) text file can

be extracted with cost and relative efficiency or reduction in loads The output thereby

provides a first order cost-efficiency of the investments


Page 22

Table 2 Measures included in the MTFR for the 5 pressures used in BLUE2

BAU MTFR Intermediate scenarios Comments

land-based measuresWater abstraction

Water savings in

agricul ture

Investment in water efficiency (focus area under the RDP)

dis tributed at NUTS2 level

Ful l convers ion of surface to sprinkler drip i rrigation

(depending on current crop dis tribution and sui tabi l i ty)

Di fferent levels of intens i ty are poss ible

Water savings in

urban supply

Estimates taking into account WBs exempted because of

water abstraction for urban supply

Network losses reduced to 5 (benchmark equal to current

s tatus in the Netherlands)

Di fferent levels of intens i ty are poss ible BAU assumption is weak

Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)

No additional measures to reduce water abstraction

consumption (based on energy production trend)

Some poss ible improvements are mentioned but cost-

outcomes not quanti fied

Wastewater reuseCurrent s tatus + new projects in Spain (according to DGENV

studies no relevant action expected in other MS)

Suggested in coasta l areas where WBs are not meeting good

quanti tative s tatus eflows Not implemented (see

comments)

New work by JRC might be considered for MTFR

Seawater

desa l ination

Current s tatus + new projects in Spain (no relevant

development ini tiative in other MS has been identi fied)



comments)

New work by JRC to be considered for MTFR

Nutrients

Urban dischargeInvestment according to WWTD reporting Pol lution loads

from typica l rates (JRC)

NP removal in a l l UWWTP Ful l Compl iance [+] as estimated by JRC Also de integration

of FC [+] + BAU is poss ible

It must be noted that agglomerations below 2000 p-e are not

captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock

Investment from RDP dis tributed at NUTS2 level Priori ty 4

actions l inked to water management improvement

JRC Reducing N surplus (input minus output) keeping the

current production constant by diminishing minera l ferti l i zers

to objective levels

NUTRIENT (JRC) reducing manure appl to 170 kgNha in a l l

Ni trates Vulnerable Zones Poss ible associated costs loss of

l ivestock production

Please note that RDPs include investment beyond Nitrates

Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows

Investment according to WWTD reporting (sanitation

networks assuming a l l are separate)Full implementation of separate networks for rainwater and

sewage

Not assumed by JRC because it is too costly Not sure if they will

somehow consider retention ponds

Contaminants

Industria l pol lutionImplementation of BAT in EPTPR insta l lations BAT + as defined in NL figure (costs effectiveness ) Very di fficul t to implement

Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD

impacts of measures for inland waters supposedly included

in ICFEunomia s ca lculation for the marine environment

ca lculation methods or data not yet obta ined Reference

ca lculations can be s tarted with the results of the Jambeck

to be defined by increas ing the ambition levels of the

measures included in the sa id Directives

sea-based measuresWater abstraction

Only 2 measures were reported in MSFD PoMs which relate to

this pressure Therefore not investigated further

Nutrients

Ful l implementation of the measures included in the BAU

scenario for a l l Member States Additional measures

Mussel farming Algae cul tivation

Nutrient

management in

aquaculture

Reported in 11 MS cost data in 4 MS no data on effectiveness

Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports

Reported in 10 MS Cost data are scarce only reported in 1

MS Impact data are absent and must be estimated

ContaminantsFul l implementation of Port Reception Faci l i ties measures

Additional measures to be decided

Improved waste

management in

harbours

8 MS report measures of this type address ing handl ing of

oi ly waste Cost data are reported in 4 MS Impact data must

be estimated

Plastic l i tter


scenario for a l l Member States Implementation of the SUPs

and PRF Directives Increased ambition levels for a l l

Di rectives that have an impact on (land-based sea-based)

plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives

Included in ICFEunomia s ca lculations of SUPs data at MS level

Fishing for l i tterReported in 14 MS cost data in 8 MS impacts can be

estimated from l i terature

Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours

Reported in 15 MS cost data in 7 MS impacts can be


Beach cleaning Reported in 9 MS cost data in 5 MS impacts to be estimated

from l i terature

FisheriesIt was agreed to define fi sheries measures in a later s tage

in close coordination with DGMARE

Estimation not feas ible

BLUE2 Study on EU Integrated Policy Assessment for the Freshwater and Marine Environment on the Economic

Benefits of EU Water Policy and on the Costs of its Non-Implementation

23

4 References

Bisselink B Bernhard J Gelati E Adamovic M Guenther S Mentaschi L and De

Roo A Impact of a changing climate land use and water usage on Europersquos water

resources EUR 29130 EN Publications Office of the European Union Luxembourg 2018

ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927

European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs The 2015

Ageing Report Economic and budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2013-

2060)

ICFEunomia 2018a Investigating options for reducing releases in the aquatic

environment of microplastics emitted by (but not intentionally added in) products Final

Report 23rd Feb 2018 Report for DG Environment of the European Commission

ICFEunomia 2018b Plastics Reuse recycling and marine litter - Impact assessment of

measures to reduce litter from single use plastics - Final report and Annex May 2018

ISBN 978-92-79-92898-7 doi102779500175 [KH-03-18-234-EN-N Report made for the

European Commission DG Environment

Riahi K Rao S Krey V Cho C Chirkov V Fischer G Kindermann G Nakicenovic

N and P Rafai (2011) RCP 85mdashA scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas

emissions Climatic Change 109 33ndash57 doi101007s10584-011-0149-y


Page 24

5 List of Acronyms

BAU Business as Usual

CSV Comma Separated Values

DG ENV Directorate-General for the Environment

DWD Drinking Water Directive

EC European Commission

EU European Union

FC Full Compliance

IED Industrial Emissions Directive

JRC Joint Research Centre

KTM Key Type of Measure

MSFD Marine Strategy Framework Directive

MTFR Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction

ND Nitrates Directive

PE Population Equivalent

PoM Programme of Measures

PRF Port Reception Facilities

RB River Basin

RBMP River Basin Management Plan

SUP Single Use Plastic

UWWTD Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive

UWWTP Urban Waste Water Treatment Plant

WFD Water Framework Directive


Page 25

HOW TO OBTAIN EU PUBLICATIONS

Free publications

bull one copy

via EU Bookshop (httpbookshopeuropaeu)

bull more than one copy or postersmaps

from the European Unionrsquos representations (httpeceuropaeurepresent_enhtm)

from the delegations in non-EU countries

(httpeeaseuropaeudelegationsindex_enhtm)

by contacting the Europe Direct service (httpeuropaeueuropedirectindex_enhtm)

or calling 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (freephone number from anywhere in the EU) () () The information given is free as are most calls (though some operators phone boxes or hotels may charge you)

Priced publications

bull via EU Bookshop (httpbookshopeuropaeu)

doi10

Price (excluding VAT) in Luxembourg EUR

[Cata

logue n

um

ber]

BLUE2 Study on EU Integrated Policy Assessment for the Freshwater and Marine Environment on the

Economic Benefits of EU Water Policy and on the Costs of its Non-Implementation

Citation

De Bel M Benitez Sanz C and Djurhuus S (2019) ldquoScenario Designrdquo Deliverable to

Task B3 of the BLUE2 project ldquoStudy on EU integrated policy assessment for the

freshwater and marine environment on the economic benefits of EU water policy and

on the costs of its non- implementationrdquo Report to DG ENV

Legal Notice

This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the

views only of the authors and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use

which may be made of the information contained therein

STICHTING DELTARES

Boussinesqweg 1 2629 HV Delft

The Netherlands

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Directorate-General for Environment Directorate C ndash Quality of Life mdash Veronica Manfredi Unit C2 mdash Marine Environment amp Water Indiustry

Contact Jacques Delsalle

E-mail JacquesDelsalleeceuropaeu

European Commission B-1049 Brussels

EUROPEAN COMMISSION



Scenario Design












Printed in







Freephone number ()

00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11



TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7

1 PREFACE 10

2 INTRODUCTION 11

3 METHODOLOGY 12





4 REFERENCES 23


List of Tables



List of Figures


10






Page 7

Executive Summary















2027





consideration




B1


B2


the Pressures

including

CostsImpacts

B3



B4

Valuation methods




Plastic litter

JRC model runs

LISFLOODGREEN+

MMF

for five scenarios

B3

Scenario tools

B4


B4

Result databases

Tools

EU-wide databases



EU-funded projects


country specific

information

etc


Page 8





Nutrients scenario






Plastics scenario







pressure














Page 9

























Page 10

1 Preface









study part
















created scenarios








Page 11

2 Introduction


































Page 12

3 Methodology








and B2




























Page 13







































Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























0











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]

EUROPEAN COMMISSION



Scenario Design












Printed in







Freephone number ()

00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11



TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7

1 PREFACE 10

2 INTRODUCTION 11

3 METHODOLOGY 12





4 REFERENCES 23


List of Tables



List of Figures


10






Page 7

Executive Summary















2027





consideration




B1


B2


the Pressures

including

CostsImpacts

B3



B4

Valuation methods




Plastic litter

JRC model runs

LISFLOODGREEN+

MMF

for five scenarios

B3

Scenario tools

B4


B4

Result databases

Tools

EU-wide databases



EU-funded projects


country specific

information

etc


Page 8





Nutrients scenario






Plastics scenario







pressure














Page 9

























Page 10

1 Preface









study part
















created scenarios








Page 11

2 Introduction


































Page 12

3 Methodology








and B2




























Page 13







































Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]








Printed in







Freephone number ()

00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11



TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7

1 PREFACE 10

2 INTRODUCTION 11

3 METHODOLOGY 12





4 REFERENCES 23


List of Tables



List of Figures


10






Page 7

Executive Summary















2027





consideration




B1


B2


the Pressures

including

CostsImpacts

B3



B4

Valuation methods




Plastic litter

JRC model runs

LISFLOODGREEN+

MMF

for five scenarios

B3

Scenario tools

B4


B4

Result databases

Tools

EU-wide databases



EU-funded projects


country specific

information

etc


Page 8





Nutrients scenario






Plastics scenario







pressure














Page 9

























Page 10

1 Preface









study part
















created scenarios








Page 11

2 Introduction


































Page 12

3 Methodology








and B2




























Page 13







































Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7

1 PREFACE 10

2 INTRODUCTION 11

3 METHODOLOGY 12





4 REFERENCES 23


List of Tables



List of Figures


10






Page 7

Executive Summary















2027





consideration




B1


B2


the Pressures

including

CostsImpacts

B3



B4

Valuation methods




Plastic litter

JRC model runs

LISFLOODGREEN+

MMF

for five scenarios

B3

Scenario tools

B4


B4

Result databases

Tools

EU-wide databases



EU-funded projects


country specific

information

etc


Page 8





Nutrients scenario






Plastics scenario







pressure














Page 9

























Page 10

1 Preface









study part
















created scenarios








Page 11

2 Introduction


































Page 12

3 Methodology








and B2




























Page 13







































Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 7

Executive Summary















2027





consideration




B1


B2


the Pressures

including

CostsImpacts

B3



B4

Valuation methods




Plastic litter

JRC model runs

LISFLOODGREEN+

MMF

for five scenarios

B3

Scenario tools

B4


B4

Result databases

Tools

EU-wide databases



EU-funded projects


country specific

information

etc


Page 8





Nutrients scenario






Plastics scenario







pressure














Page 9

























Page 10

1 Preface









study part
















created scenarios








Page 11

2 Introduction


































Page 12

3 Methodology








and B2




























Page 13







































Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 8





Nutrients scenario






Plastics scenario







pressure














Page 9

























Page 10

1 Preface









study part
















created scenarios








Page 11

2 Introduction


































Page 12

3 Methodology








and B2




























Page 13







































Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 9

























Page 10

1 Preface









study part
















created scenarios








Page 11

2 Introduction


































Page 12

3 Methodology








and B2




























Page 13







































Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 10

1 Preface









study part
















created scenarios








Page 11

2 Introduction


































Page 12

3 Methodology








and B2




























Page 13







































Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 11

2 Introduction


































Page 12

3 Methodology








and B2




























Page 13







































Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 12

3 Methodology








and B2




























Page 13







































Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 13







































Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 14





assessment






catchment area




























Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 15























BAU













Pressure Measures


Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries BAU

Nutrients scenario





Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 16









Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

Plastics scenario


















Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 17




Nutrients BAU

Contaminants BAU

Plastic litter





Fisheries









Nutrients BAU

Contaminants bull


Plastic litter BAU

Fisheries

MTFR scenario








Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 18





reduced to 5

Nutrients





ndashJRC-)

Contaminants bull

Plastic litter


implemented EU-wide




regulations















described here







Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 19


























Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 20











6 see Figure 5








it
















Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 21

















BOD5 load (kgday)



BOD5 efficiency ()












Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 22




Water savings in

agricul ture






Water savings in

urban supply






Water savings in

industry

Water savings in

cool ing (thermal

energy)









comments)


Seawater

desa l ination





comments)


Nutrients






captured

Agricul ture and

l ivestock





to objective levels





Directive

Combined Sewer

Overflows



sewage



Contaminants


Plastic l i tter

EU-wide

implementation of

WFD PPWD










Nutrients




Nutrient

management in

aquaculture


Improved

management of

sewerage water in

ports





Improved waste

management in

harbours



be estimated

Plastic l i tter





plastic l i ttering



and PRF Directives

for SUPs EU-wide

implementation of

EU Directives




Improved plastic

waste management

in harbours




from l i terature






23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]



23

4 References




ISBN 978-92-79-80287-4 doi102760847068 JRC110927



2060)












Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 24

5 List of Acronyms






EU European Union

FC Full Compliance










RB River Basin







Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]


Page 25


Free publications

bull one copy








Priced publications


doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]

doi10


[Cata

logue n

um

ber]

scenario design - european commission€¦ · scenario is to illustrate what reduction is maximally...

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