satellite communications & broadcasting markets survey 2010

www.euroconsult-ec.com

17 th edi t ionSatellite Communications & Broadcasting Markets SurveyForecasts to 2019, Preparing for a Showdown

The essential tool for business planning and investment decisions in the satellite industry

Despite a slowdown the FSS industry proved its resilience with continuous growth in capacity usage and 4.4% growth in revenues last year. While the slower growth could be explained by a combination of short term and structural factors after four years of high growth, prospects for the sector remain solid for the next three years. With high fill rates and upward pricing trends in several world regions, most operators improved their profit margins last year and should continue to deliver strong performances.

Nevertheless, the takeoff of new applications (digital TV in emerging regions, HDTV, 3D, consumer broadband , UAV communications etc.) and the emergence of new systems by existing and new operators should impact the competitive landscape. New systems, including those operated in Ka-band, will aim to capture a larger share of traffic and will push established operators to revise their development strategies.

he ability of operators to secure financing in a still challenging environment, and potential moves in terms of consolidation and vertical integration could impact local market dynamics. Access to orbital slots and local markets remain strategic issues for future growth.

About the report

Key trends, drivers & forecastsfor FSS satellite communications

The report provides critical information for business and strategic planning in the FSS industry, including:

Transponder pricing trends

Demand trends & ten-year forecasts by

Application

Region

Frequency band

Supply trends & ten-year forecasts by

Region

Frequency band

shares by application and region

New applications & markets

For more details, please see the table of contents on the following pages

Now in its 17th edition, Satellite Communications & Broadcasting Markets Survey isthe definitive business planning tool supporting investment decisions in the satelliteindustry. Released annually, it provides the most complete and accurate picture ofmarket conditions and extensive, insightful analysis of market trends. A must-read for:

Satellite Operators

Investors & Financial Institutions

Service Providers

Satellite & Equipment Manufacturers

Extensive Figures & Analysisfor the Coming Decade

Twelve regional profiles

Market Trends in Transponder Demand & Supply

Trends in Transponder Lease Rates & Revenues

Transponder Supply, Usage & Fill Rate by Frequency Band

******

-Saharan Africa- -East AsiaOceania & Pacific

Analysis of all fixed satellite communication applications

Consumer Broadband Access

Focuses on Emerging Ka-Band Usage

Telecommunications Companies

Strategic review of satellite

Revenue Trends for Infrastructure

Revenue per Transponder

Other Key Indicators

Administrations & Space Agencies

Launchers


Table of Contents

Trends and Prospects Related to Transponder Demand

5.3% growth in transponder demand in 2009, with a growth of up to 6% expected in 2010

Capacity demand boosted by emerging countries, including several of the BRIC, ahead of established satellite markets

Trends and prospects by frequency band

Current & Future Satellite Capacity Usage

Part 1: Strategic Issues and Forecasts for the Satellite Operators

Full Page Graphs & Tables Market Drivers and Forecasts

Breakdown of World Transponder Demand by Application : Excl. Spotbeam Satellites, 2004-2009

Transponder demand breakdown by application & region 2009 Breakdown of Regular Transponder Demand by Frequency

Band: World, 2009 Reference Supply vs. Total Transponders in Orbit: Regular

Capacity, 2002-2009 World Reference Transponder Supply by Frequency Band for

-2009 Transponder Supply & Demand Worldwide: Excl. Spotbeam

Satellites, 2004-2009

-2009 Estimated Average Revenue per Transponder per Region for

the FSS Industry: 2008 & 2009

Forecasts of Transponder Demand by Application Worldwide: Excl. Spotbeam Satellites, 2005-2019

Breakdown of Transponder Demand by Frequency Band: -2019

Breakdown of Transponder Demand by Region: 2005-2019 Breakdown of Transponder Demand by Region: Regions w.

Fewer than 400 Transponders, 2005-2019 Transponder Demand & Supply Worldwide: Regular Capacity,

2005-2019 Average Revenue per Transponder per Year for the FSS

Industry: 2005-2019 Forecasts of Terminals Served by Multispotbeam Satellite

Systems: 2008-2019

Prospects for Usage of Broadband Services (BBS) Payloads*

A dramatic increase in the capacity offered by BBS payloads in the next five years

Consumer broadband access and enterprise networks to drive capacity usage

The launch of dedicated capacity to boost the satellite trunking market

Demand to reach up to 1,800 Gbps by 2019, with a large upward revision of our forecasts

Capacity prices will be constrained by service prices for end-users

*BBS satellites specifically designed for broadband access such as wildblue and IPSTAR

Capacity

at 77%

Fill rates to remain high in the next two to three years in most regions

Trends and Prospects for Transponder Lease Rates

Transponder lease rates driven by the level of capacity used and the nature of the service provided

The global average revenue per transponder stood at $1.62 million in 2009

High capacity fill rates currently protect the industry from the risk of significant price decreases

Large differences in average lease rates between regional markets

Satellite Communications & Broadcasting Market Survey © 2010 Euroconsult

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

36 M

Hz

transp

onders

Traffic trunking

Video contribution

Broadcast of TV channels

Milsatcom

COMPLETED FORECASTSEST.

Corporate networks & broadband access

Forecasts of transponder demand by application worldwide (Excluding BBS satellites, 2005-2009 and forecasts to 2019)


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

We

ste

rn E

uro

pe

No

rth

Ea

st A

sia

No

rth

Am

erica

Oce

an

ia

ME

NA

Ce

ntr

al E

uro

pe

La

tin A

me

rica

Ch

ina

are

a

Ru

ssia

& C

en

tra

l Asia

So

uth

Ea

st A

sia

Su

b S

ah

ara

n A

fric

a

So

uth

ern

Asia

$ in millions

Estimated Average Revenue per Transponder per Region for the FSS Industry(2008 & 2009)

2008

2009


Financials of FSS Operators

Three main types of FSS operators

FSS revenues grew by ~4.4% in 2009, affected by the dollar exchange rates

Growth continues to be driven by infrastructure revenues

Europe remains leading market in FSS infrastructure revenues

Profit margins of most FSS operators improved in 2009

Slight increase in average backlog multiple confirms strong demand

Current replacement and expansion cycle leading to increase in capex

No significant impact of the financial crisis felt by FSS operators

Strong growth in FSS revenues from regular capacity expected in most emerging regions

Structural Trends for FSS Operators

The FSS industry remains highly concentrated

Growth strategies of FSS operators

The SatCom industry value chain is growing on all levels

Vertically integrated satellite operation models

The Satellite Operators

Full Page Graphs & Tables Performance of Satellite Operators

The 38 FSS Operators 2009 Revenues and Market Shares of FSS Operators Transponder Utilization by FSS Companies in 2009 Infrastucture vs. Service Revenues of FSS Operators: 2002-2009 Revenue Growth of the FSS Industry: World,1981-2009 Average Profit Margins: World,1999-2009 Trend & Range in EBITDA Margin: World, 1999-2009 Backlog as a Multiple of Revenues: World, 1999-2009 Capital Expenditure to Sales Ratio: World, 1995-2009 Capital Expenditure vs. Satellite Orders: World, 1996-2009 Financial transactions in the FSS/MSS industry: 1999-2009 FSS industry concentration: 2009 revenue distribution by company Investment of FSS Operators in Satellite Service Providers

2 different Business Models in the Satellite Service Industry Revenues of the FSS Industry by Region: World, 2000-2008 Future FSS Revenues by Region: World, 2005-2019 Revenue Growth of the FSS Industry by Region: Regions w.

less than $ 1 b. in revenues, 2005-2009 Future Revenue Growth for the FSS Industry by Region:

Regions w. less than $ 1 b. in Revenues, 2005-2019 Wholesale Revenues for Multispotbeam Satellite Systems:

World, 2005-2019 Infrastructure Revenues of FSS Operators: regular &

multispotbeam capacity, 2005-2019


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Revenue in $ billions

Start of horizontal

concentration in

the FSS industry

Decrease in

transponder

price & volume

Revenue for the FSS operators plus

estimated equivalent revenue for the

transponders used by DirecTV and

EchoStar

Recovery in

transponder

volume

FSS operators

service provision

FSS operators

infrastructure

trading

Revenue Growth of FSS Industry (World, 1981-2009)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Capex to sales ratio (capex in % of revenues) for a

sample of FSS operators

Satellite orders (in # of GEO FSS satellites per

year)

Number of satellite ordered and capex as % of revenue

The increase in satellite order resulted in

an increase in capex to sales in the

year(s) after

Record lows in satellite

order and capex to

sales ratio

Start of replacement and

expansion phase

Capital Expenditure vs. Satellite Orders in the FSS Industry(World, 1996-2009)


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

$ millions

Regional Distribution of Future Revenues of the FSS Industry*(World, 2004-2019)

* Infrastructure business (excludes service provision)** DBS includes the estimated transponder lease value of DirecTV and Dish Network

North East Asia

South Asia

Middle East & North Africa

Central Europe

Western Europe

Latin America

North America

Russia & Central Asia

Sub Saharan Africa

China areaSouth East Asia

Oceania & Pacific

FORECASTS COMPLETED EST.


The Video Broadcasting Market: Beyond the Crisis

Three distribution options for satellite broadcasting

Noticeable slowdown in transponder demand last year with 6% growth

North America still the largest market, with emerging regions supporting growth

Video Broadcasting as a Highly Concentrated FSS Market

Emerging digital markets: A promising market for regional operators

Orbital positions: A key stake for satellite operators

A Satellite Pay-TV Market Resilient to the Crisis

New players continue to enter the market of satellite pay-TV

Pay-TV platforms remain the preferred distribution option for TV channels

Slowdown of Capacity Demand for Channels Outside DTH Platforms

Multiplexes remain the reference for video distribution outside DTH platforms

TV channels outside DTH platforms generated a 7% increase in transponder demand

A Growing Impact of New Generation TV Services on Capacity Needs

Gains in digital compression enable the launch of new services

Satellite pay-TV platforms lead the rapid increase in HD channels broadcast

3DTV should initially have a limited impact on video distribution services

Video Distribution and Contribution

Part 2: Market Dynamics for Satellite Applications


At YE 2009, the four leading operators had a 62% market share

on a total of 2,557 transponders used for video distribution

SES Global 21%

(SES Americom, SES Astra/SES Sirius and

SES New Skies)

Eutelsat 15%

Intelsat 19%

Hispasat 3%

Telesat 7%

Insat 3%

Other regional/national

satellite operators: 23%

Singtel Optus 3%

Star One 3%

JSAT 3%

The Rise of Global Operators for Satellite Video Distribution


Introduction

of digital

technology

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Launch of dozens

digital DTH

platforms

27,000 satellite

channels at YE

2009

Source : Euroconsult’s monitoring of LyngSat

Number of TV channels

Multiplication of

HD services

worldwide

A Chronology of TV Channels on Satellite (1993-2009)


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Eu

tels

at

Inte

lsa

t

SE

S G

lob

al*

Ec

ho

sta

r

Dir

ec

TV

Te

les

at

His

pa

sa

t

Sin

gte

l O

ptu

s

Ins

at

Cie

l S

ate

llit

e

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yP

erf

ec

t J

sa

t

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len

or

RS

CC

As

ias

at

Me

as

at

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bs

at

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ac

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om

Nile

sa

t

Sh

in S

ate

llit

e

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rks

at

Ch

ina

Sa

tco

m

Sa

tme

x

He

lla

s S

at

Sta

r O

ne

AB

S

Source: Euroconsult’s monitoring of Lyngsat

* SES Global including SES Americom, SES Astra/SES Sirius and SES New Skies

Nr of TV channels broadcast

Channels broadcast for satellite pay-TV platforms

Other TV channels

Top 25 Satellite Operators Broadcasting TV Channels(February 2010)


Video Contribution Services Stable After Strong Growth of the Last Decade

The video contribution market was globally flat in 2009

Mpeg-2 continues to dominate the video contribution market

In 2009, North America and Western Europe still represented more than half of the video contribution market

MENA presented the strongest increase in video feeds carried last year

Forecast of Future Transponder Demand for Video Distribution & Contribution

An expected 3.5% CAGR in satellite TV channels in the next ten years

Strong growth expected for satellite TV platforms

By 2019, 19% of satellite TV channels will be distributed in HD

Broadcasters multiply 3D services announcements

Competitive delivery networks may likely benefit satellite video distribution

Video distribution to represent 47% of total transponder demand by 2019, up from 43% in 2009

Transponder demand for the contribution market should continue to grow despite improvements in compression

Emerging markets to drive growth in the contribution market

In the next ten years, capacity leasing for video contribution to globally present a 3.5% CAGR

Full Page Graphs & Tables Video Distribution & Contribution Services

A Chronology of TV Channels on Satellite: 1993-2009 Transponder Usage for TV Distribution - Breakdown by Market

Segment: World, 2000-2009 Growth of Transponder Usage for TV Distribution by Region:

World, 2001-2009 Top 25 Satellite Operators Broadcasting TV Channels: World,

February 2010 Top 25 Orbital Positions for TV Broadcasting for FSS operators

& Proprietary Systems: World, 2010 Rise of Global Operators for Satellite Video Distribution 2008 Growth of Transponder Usage for Satellite Pay-TV Platforms:

2001-2009

Satellite Pay-TV Platforms in Service Worldwide: 1995-2009E Transponders Use for Multiplexes vs. Independent TV

Channels: 2002-2009 Growth of TV Channels (Multiplexes vs. Mid-independent ,

2003-2009 Growth & Forecasts of TV channels Broadcast by Satellite:

2004-2019 Growth & Forecast in Transponder Demand for TV Distribution:

2004-2019 Growth In the Number of Feeds carried Worldwide: 2002-2009 Growth & Forecasts in Transponder Demand for Video

Contribution: 2004-2019


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

36 M

Hz

Transp

onders

South East Asia

South Asia

Middle East & NorthAfrica

Central Europe

Western Europe

Latin America

North America



Sub Saharan Africa

North East AsiaChina area

Oceania & Pacific

Growth and Forecasts in Transponder Demand for TV Distribution(2004-2019)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

DTH platforms

Introduction of Direct-to-Home digital television

DTH platforms offering HDTV

Consolidation & restructuring -

global telecom and media crisis

Since 2006, the number of operating platforms worldwide has risen significantly, driven by the dynamism of emerging digital regions such as Central & Eastern Europe and Asia

Primarily North American HD offerings

In 2009, close to ten new platforms introduced HD TV channels in their lineup.

Satellite pay-TV platforms in service worldwide (1995-2009)


Market Overview

The market for enterprise networks & trunking has been resilient

Key trends impacting the value chain

A Wide Range of Markets Support the Satellite Enterprise Market Growth

Satellite positioned as a complementary broadband access technology

Trends by vertical market

The Trunking Market at the Crossroads

The erosion of the trunking market has stopped, with a 4% CAGR in the last three years

A legacy market for satellite operators, with 1,700 transponders used in 2009

Cellular backhaul and Internet trunking as relays of growth in emerging regions

The expansion of ground networks leaves white areas unserved and can even boost satellite usage

Network optimization could limit the need for satellite bandwidth in certain areas

The introduction of the O3B constellation as a potential game changer for satellite trunking

U.S. Remains the Dominant Regional Market for the Enterprise VSAT market

North America market resilient

Latin America driven by government mandates

Western Europe taken more seriously

Promising prospects across Eastern Europe and Russia

Middle East and Africa are the promising markets

Asia: Still tangled in regulation

Forecasts for the Enterprise and Trunking Markets

New applications, verticals and regions

Technology improves efficiency and increases demand for bandwidth

Over 6.4 million enterprise terminals forecasted by 2019

Prospects for capacity: A market partly reshaped by Ka-band systems

trunking and 940 units for enterprise by 2019

New generation BBS systems to carry over 700 Gbps, including over 150 Gbps for trunking by 2019

Enterprise Networks & Trunking


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Growth of Regular Transponder demand for Trunking(2005-2019)

Subsc

ribers

(„000)

North East Asia

South Asia

MENA

Central EuropeWestern Europe

Latin AmericaNorth America


Sub Saharan Africa

China area

South East Asia

Oceania & Pacific



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

"Regular payloads"

Growth of Terminals for Enterprise NetworksBreakdown between Regular and BBS Payloads(2006-2019)

Term

inals

in m

illio

n


“BBS payloads"

*BBS payload: Broadband Services payload


Regional Markets at Very Different Levels of the S-Curve

North America continues subscriber growth pace

Asia waiting to burst

The European wholesale distribution business model

The Middle East and Africa

Other regions growing slowly

Growth Expected for Next 10 Years

Higher, faster and converged

Approaching 12 million subscribers by 2019

Nearly 1,100 Gbps required by 2019

Consumer Broadband Access

Consumer Broadband Is the Hype for Real?

Nearly 1.5 million consumer broadband subscribers by the end of 2009

A large increase in supply at satellite and ground level

Pricing of service packages competes with low-end terrestrial networks

Two equipment providers dominate the consumer broadband market

New platforms focus more on wholesale capacity provisioning


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Capacity in Gbps

C and Ku-band

Growth & Forecast in Commercial Satellite Capacity used for Milsatcom(2000-2009 and forecasts to 2019)

Ka-band



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

36 M

Hz

Transp

onders

North East Asia

South Asia


Central EuropeWestern EuropeLatin America

North America


Sub Saharan Africa

China areaSouth East Asia

Oceania & Pacific

Growth and Forecast in Transponder Demand for Military Communications*(2000-2009 and forecasts to 2019)

* With the assumption that military communication services in Ka-band will be offered by "regular " satellite payloads with widebeam coverage



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Growth of Subscriptions to Consumer Satellite Broadband Access(2006-2019)

Subsc

ribers

(„000)

North East AsiaSouth Asia

MENA

Central Europe

Western Europe

Latin America

North America


Sub Saharan Africa

China area

South East Asia

Oceania & Pacific



Full Page Graphs & Tables Consumer Broadband

Subscribers by Satellite System/Main Service Provider: Multispotbeam satellites, 2005-2009

Subscriptions to Satellite Broadband Access, Regular vs. Multispotbeam Payloads : 2005-2019

Growth of Subscriptions to Consumer Satellite Broadband Access: 2005-2019

Growth in capacity required from multispotbeam systems breakdown by region: 2007-2019

Transponder demand for consumer satellite broadband

Full Page Graphs & Tables Satellite Capacity for Telecom Traffic Trunking and Multi-Usage

International Outgoing Satellite Traffic of US Carriers by Destination: 1998-2008

International Outgoing Satellite Traffic from Hong Kong: 2005-2009

Rentals of Satellite Capacity by the Indian Operator VSNL: 2002-2009

Growth & Forecast in Transponder Demand for Traffic Trunking: 2005-2019

Full Page Graphs & Tables Corporate and Civilian Government Networks

Growth of Terminals for Corporate Networks, Breakdown by Region: 2002-2009

Growth of Terminals for Corporate Networks, Regular vs. Multispotbeam Payloads: 2005-2019

Growth of Terminals for Corporate Networks, Breakdown by Region: 2005-2019

Networks: 2005-2019

Full Page Graphs & Tables Milsatcom Services

US DoD Budget for Milsatcom Unclassified - R&D and Procurement : 1997-2008

US DoD Shortfall for Satellite Bandwidth: 2002-2019

Transponder demand for milsatcom-2019

Development of Supply and Strategic Positioning of Commercial Entities

Proprietary government systems can no longer cope with increasing demand

Satellite operators today offer customized solutions to address military requirements

Strategic Stakes for Future Requirements

New technologies and new services drive the growth for capacity demand

Growing usage of UAVs dramatically increases the bandwidth needs of armed forces

Forecasts for Capacity Requirement

Persistent global conflicts and new technologies allow us to assume continuous growth in demand

Ka-band could see growing usage for specific military needs

Transponder demand from military customers will diversify and should experience a 9% CAGR over the next ten years

Milsatcom

Growth in Capacity Usage for MilSatCom

Transponders used by military customers reached over 210 units in 2009

The U.S. DoD is the main customer of commercial capacity for military usage

Non U.S. military customers also require more capacity but at a slower pace

Unsatisfied demand in certain frequency bands/regions is still an issue but also an opportunity for civil operators



0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

36 M

Hz

transp

onders

Ku band

C band

COMPLETED

Ka & other bands**

ATTRITION OF TRANSPONDERS IN ORBIT OR IN CONSTRUCTION

*Reference supply corresponds to the average capacity available during the year, excluding backup transponders and satellites in inclined orbit**Excluding BBS capacity

Transponder Reference Supply* by Frequency Band in Western Europe(2004-2019)

Part 3: Twelve Regional Profiles

North America

Latin America

Western Europe

Central Europe



Sub-Saharan Africa

Southern Asia

North-East Asia

Greater China

South-East Asia

Oceania & Pacific

Regional profiles are analyzed in the same way, with dedicated graphs and tables for easy comparison:

Trends and prospects for transponder demand in the region

Market overview

Growth and forecast per application segment video services

Growth and forecast per application segment telecom services

Trends in transponder lease rates and revenues

Transponder supply and fill rates in the region

Overview of total transponder supply and fill rate

Trends in supply and usage by frequency band

Current transponder demand for telecom and video broadcasting services

Positioning and market shares of satellite operators in the region

Market shares and business of satellite operators in the region

New entrants to the market

Full Page Graphs & Tables For each region:

Fill rates by Frequency Band: 2004-2009 Market Share of Satellite Operators for Revenues and

Transponders Leased in 2009 Forecast of Transponder Demand by Service: 2005-2019

Forecast of Transponder Demand by Frequency Band: 2005-2019 Forecast of Transponder Supply by Frequency Band: 2005-2019 Forecast of Transponder Supply and Demand in the Region: 2005-

2019

Satellite Communications & Broadcasting Markets Survey © 2009 Euroconsult

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Including satellites in construction (C/Ku/Ka*)

36 M

Hz

transp

onders

COMPLETED FORECASTS

Demand forecasts

Reference Supply

EST.

*Excluding BBS satellites

Regular Transponder Supply and Demand in Oceania & Pacific(2005-2009 and Forecasts to 2019)


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Video distribution

Breakdown of “Regular” Transponder Demand by Application in Russia & Central Asia(2005-2019)

36 M

Hz

Transp

onders

Video contribution

Traffic trunking (fixed IP, Non-IP & cellular backhaul)

DTU satcom services (Corporate

networks, broadband access & milsatcom)


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satellite applications. We bring this expertise to

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An in-depth survey of all 40 active and pre-

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maritime SatCom market

Sector dynamics, analysis and forecasts for the

aeronautical SatCom market

Company Profiles: Analysis of FSS Operators

Mobile Satellite Communications Markets Survey Maritime Telecom Solutions by Satellite

Aeronautical Telecom Solutions by Satellite


Satellite Communications & Broadcasting Markets Survey, Forecasts to 2019

Preparing for a Showdown, 2010 Edition

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Satellite Communications & Broadcasting Markets Survey, Forecasts to 2019

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