san francisco bay area luxury home market...pacific heights pacific heights $18,000,000 $9,330,000...

San Francisco Bay Area Luxury Home Market December 2020 Report

Focusing on Market Dynamics since the Pandemic Struck

Due to differing property values, as a very general rule of thumb we define the luxuryhome segment as properties listed or selling for $3 million+ in San Francisco, Marin, SanMateo & Santa Clara Counties, and for $2 million+ in other Bay Area Counties (and for SFluxury condos and co-ops).

In the first six months since the pandemic really impacted monthly sales volume, overallsales remained about the same year over year, but luxury home sales jumped over 50%.Homes sold to affluent and very affluent buyers have significantly increased as apercentage of total sales since the pandemic. This also helped pull up overall medianhome sales prices.

Many of these charts illustrate the seasonality of the luxury home market, however thepandemic largely upended “normal” seasonal trends of supply and demand in 2020.

Listings and sales posted to MLS – not all high-price listings/sales are posted. Data from sources

deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and all

numbers are approximate. Data may change slightly due to late-reported sales.

County Highest Priced LISTING on Market

Location Highest Priced SALE

Location

Santa Clara $53,888,000 Palo Alto Hills (Portola Valley)

$20,000,000 Palo Alto

San Mateo $50,000,000 Woodside $15,900,000 Woodside

Marin $43,000,000 Ross $15,000,000 Tiburon

Monterey $32,950,000 Pebble Beach $24,875,000 Pebble Beach

Napa $29,800,000 St. Helena $14,000,000 City of Napa

Sonoma $28,900,000 Calistoga (in Sonoma County)

$14,750,000 City of Sonoma

San FranciscoHouseCondo/Co-op

$25,800,000 $25,000,000

Pacific Heights Pacific Heights

$18,000,000$9,330,000

Pacific Heights Russian Hill

Contra Costa $25,000,000 Lafayette $19,000,000 Alamo

Santa Cruz $12,500,000 La Selva Beach $7,900,000 Aptos

Alameda $12,000,000 Berkeley $6,200,000 $6,200,000

Piedmont Oakland

Highest Priced Home Listings on Market – early November 2020

Highest Priced Home Sales – May-October 2020 As posted/reported to MLS*

* Active/Coming Soon listings posted to MLS in early November 2020. Sales reported to MLS in the 6 monthsMay-October 2020. Not all luxury listings/sales are posted/reported to MLS. Off-MLS listings/sakes may existwith higher prices. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.

0

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600

700

Oct

-18

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Jan

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9

May

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9

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No

v-1

9

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9

Jan

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Ap

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20

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0

Sep

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Luxury Homes: New Listings Coming on Market

Consolidated Data for 10 Bay Area Counties

Per Broker Metrics: Listings posted to MLS – not all high-price listings are posted. Data from sources deemed reliable, but

may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Last month’s data may change with late-reported

sales. In San Francisco, only houses were included in this analysis. (SF luxury condos are tracked separately.)

The ebb and flow of new luxury home listings is very seasonal, typically climbing inspring, dropping in summer, spiking up in early autumn and then plunging in Novemberand December. However, counties with large second-home markets sometimes seesomewhat different dynamics. The pandemic altered normal seasonal trends in 2020.

Pandemic hits market

Aug. fires hit

Spring 2019

Sept.2019

From Napa and Sonoma Counties in the north, to Monterey County in the south.

Dec

em

ber

Dec

em

ber

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Oct

-18

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8

Jan

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Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

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9

May

-19

Jun

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g-1

9

Sep

-19

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No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

Active Luxury Home Listings on Market




activity. In San Francisco, only houses were included in this analysis. (SF luxury condos are tracked separately.)

Oct.2020

As a general rule of thumb, we define the luxury home segment as properties listed for $3 million+ inSan Francisco, Marin, San Mateo & Santa Clara Counties, and for $2 million+ in other Bay Area Counties.Some counties were affected by the terrible fires beginning in mid-August 2020, but many were not.

Mid-Winter

Mid-Winter


Spring 2019

Fires

Listing inventory in October 2020 up 8% year-over-year.


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300

400

500

Oct

-18

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Feb

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May

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9

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9

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Oct

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Luxury Home Sales





As a general rule of thumb, we define the luxury home segment asproperties selling for $3 million+ in San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo &Santa Clara Counties, and for $2 million+ in other Bay Area Counties.Some counties saw declines in sales due to the fires beginning in mid-August 2020, but increases in other counties balanced those out.

Mid-Winter

Mid-Winter


Fires

Spring 2019

Oct.2019

Sales volume in October 2020 up 74% year-over-year. Sales hit all-time high in summer-fall 2020.


Sales typically peak in late spring/early summer, and October.

212

37

6372

160

109

131

269

214

275

421

139

7490

151170

211222

344363

409

514

SF Condos SantaCruz

Napa Sonoma SF Houses Monterey Marin Alameda ContraCosta

San Mateo SantaClara

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

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400

450

500

Nu

mb

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me

Sale

s May-Oct. 2019 May-Oct. 2020

Year-over-Year Change in Bay Area Luxury Home Sales

by Bay Area County, May-October 2019 to May-October 2020

Per sales reported to MLS May through October. Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS. Last month’snumbers estimated and may change slightly with late reported sales. Data from source deemed reliable, but maycontain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

Columns illustrate the number of sales, May-October,2019 & 2020. Percentages reflect year-over-yearchanges in sales.

For San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara and MarinCounties, the threshold for “luxury” was a housesales price of at least $3 million. For other countyhouse markets and SF condos, the threshold was $2million.

+22%+49%+70%+28%+69%+94%+6%+110%+43%-34% +100%

Sonoma, Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties saw the largest year-over-year increases.

Big Houses in Expensive Locations* Annual Median House Sales Prices by County since 2013

$1

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$1

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$500,000

$750,000

$1,000,000

$1,250,000

$1,500,000

$1,750,000

$2,000,000

$2,250,000

$2,500,000

$2,750,000

Contra Costa County Alameda County Napa & Sonoma Counties

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Median Sales Prices by Year*

* 5+ bedroom, 3+ bath, 3500+ square feet houses in more expensive communities of the county.Median Sales Price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Data fromsources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

Sales reported to MLS by early November 2020*

Napa & Sonoma Counties werecombined for a larger andmore reliable data set. Theissue of lot size or acreage is amajor factor in these counties.

YTD 2020, Napa-Sonomasaw a 77% jump in homesales of $3 million+.

Median Sales Price is a very general statistic that is oftenaffected by factors other than changes in fair market value.

Big Houses in Expensive Bay Area Locations* Annual Median House Sales Prices by County since 2013

$2

,77

0,0

00

$3

,28

0,0

00

$3

,93

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$3

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$3

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$4

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$4

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$4

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$3

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$4

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$4

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$4

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$4

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$5

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$5

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$4

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$3

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5,0

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$5

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5,0

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$5

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$4

,66

0,0

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$4

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0,0

00

$4

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0,0

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$5

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0,0

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$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$4,500,000

$5,000,000

$5,500,000

$6,000,000

Santa Clara County Marin County San Francisco San Mateo County

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Median Sales Prices by Year*

* 5+ bedroom, 3+ bath, 3500+ square feet houses in more expensive communities of the county.Median Sales Price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Data fromsources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

Sales reported to MLS by early November 2020*

Median Sales Price is a general statistic that is often affected byfactors other than changes in fair market value. Marketconditions and buyer demand can vary by county and by year.

YTD 2020, SF saw a 13%increase in luxury house salesunder $5 million, and a 34%drop in sales of $5 million+.YTD 2020, Marin saw

a 73% rise in homesales over $5 million.

YTD 2020, San Mateohad a 36% rise in homesales over $5 million.

$2,350,000 $2,430,000

$2,500,000

$2,750,000

$3,050,000

$3,375,000

$3,712,500

$3,800,000

$3,897,500

$4,000,000

$2,200,000

$2,400,000

$2,600,000

$2,800,000

$3,000,000

$3,200,000

$3,400,000

$3,600,000

$3,800,000

$4,000,000

Alameda ContraCosta

SantaCruz

Sonoma Monterey Napa SantaClara

Marin SanFrancisco

SanMateo

Med

ian

Sal

es P

rice

: Lu

xury

Ho

use

s

* Luxury house sales reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, butmay contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

Median Luxury House Sales Prices*

Luxury Homes Sold, by County, May – October 2020

Median sales prices for luxury homessold within the 6-month period after thepandemic initially affected closed sales.

“Luxury homes” in this analysis weredefined by all house sales over acertain price threshold - $2m+ or $3m+depending on county market values.

$643

$690

$873 $889

$1,008 $1,021

$1,168 $1,190 $1,194

$1,237 $1,237

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

ContraCosta

Alameda SantaCruz

Sonoma Napa Monterey Marin SF Houses SantaClara

SF Condos SanMateo

Med

ian

Do

llar

per

Sq

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e Fo

ot

Val

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Lu

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mes

* Luxury house sales reported to MLS + luxury condos in San Francisco. Data from sourcesdeemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

Median Dollar per Square Foot Value*

Luxury Home Sales, by County, May – October 2020 (6 months after the pandemic)

What one gets for one’s dollar when buyinga luxury home in the Bay Area variesdramatically by county. A number of factorsplays a role in this metric, including location(of course), views, architecture, amenities,median house size and median lot size.

2925

3250

3330

3425 3435 3450 34703500

3550

4070

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

SantaCruz

SantaClara

SanMateo

Monterey SanFrancisco

Sonoma Alameda Marin Napa ContraCosta

Med

ian

Sq

uar

e Fo

ota

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uxu

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Median House Square Footage*

Luxury Homes Sold, by County, May – October 2020 (6 months after the pandemic)

Almost all of Contra Costa’s luxuryhome sales occur in Diablo Valleyand Lamorinda, regions - whichfeature the largest median luxuryhome sizes in the Bay Area.

“Luxury homes” in this analysis weredefined by all house sales over acertain price threshold - $2m+ or $3m+depending on county market values.

0.07

0.24 0.25 0.290.37 0.41

0.53 0.53

1.5

3 acres

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

SanFrancisco

SantaCruz

Alameda SantaClara

Marin SanMateo

Monterey ContraCosta

Napa Sonoma

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Median Lot Size in Acres*

Luxury Homes Sold, by County, May – October 2020 (6 months after the pandemic)

One of the major features of luxury homesand estates in Napa & Sonoma Counties ismuch larger median lot size (acreage).

In San Francisco, even the largest,most expensive homes are generallylocated on very small lots, “cheek tojowl” with their neighbors.

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Luxury Home Market: Average Days on Market


Per Broker Metrics: Sales posted to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to

revision. All numbers are approximate. Outlier data – abnormally higher or lower than county norms - adjusted when

identified. In San Francisco, only houses were included in this analysis. (SF luxury condos are tracked separately.)

Mid-Winter

Mid-Winter


Fires

Spring 2019


A measurement of how long, on average, it takes a luxury home listingto go into contract (for those listings that close sale). Lower readingstypically = stronger demand, though there are other factors at play.

Luxury homes usually have higheraverage days on market thanmore affordable price segments.

27 29 34 37 40 46 50 74 74 97 9920

30

40

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80

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Alameda ContraCosta

SantaClara

SanMateo

SF Houses SF Condos Marin SantaCruz

Sonoma Napa Monterey

Ave

rage

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uxu

ry H

om

es

* Monthly average for sales reported to MLS. Adjusted for outlier data when identified. Data fromsources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

Average Days on Market*

Luxury Homes Sold, by County, May – October 2020 Monthly average, 6 months sales reported to MLS

Outlying counties without the large concentrationsof economic activity, with longer or untenablecommutes to central Bay Area business centers, inwhich second-home and retirement purchases areoften a significant segment of sales, usually seesubstantially longer days on market figures.

0%

5%

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25%

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Percentage of Luxury Home Listings Accepting Offers





This statistic is a measurement of buyer demand as comparedto the supply of listings on the market: Higher percentage =hotter market. It typically peaks in spring, though not in2020. This percentage usually runs much lower for luxuryproperties than in more affordable price segments.

Mid-Winter

Mid-Winter

Pan

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Spring 2019


8+

6

3.3

2.8

4.5

2.82.4

2

2.8

1.4 1.4

11 11

10 10 10

7

5 5

4

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Napa SF Condo SF House SantaCruz

Sonoma SantaClara

Marin SanMateo

Monterey Alameda ContraCosta

* As reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics: average of MSI figures, August-October 2020. Adjusted for outlier data.Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

Months Supply of Inventory*

Bay Area County Luxury Home Markets, by Price Segment

Months-Supply-of-Inventory (MSI) measures howmany months it would take to sell the existingsupply of listings at current rates of marketactivity. The lower the reading, the stronger thebuyer demand as compared to inventory. It is notunusual for more expensive homes to have higherMSI readings. MSI is a very approximate statisticthat often fluctuates in the luxury segment.

3-month average reading, August-October 2020

▲MSI for ultra-luxury homes: $3 million+ or $5 million+

depending on county market

▲MSI for lower luxury price segment: $2m to $2.99 million, or $3m to $4.99 million depending on county market

Lower MSI = Higher Demand

▼

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Luxury Home Market: Expired/Withdrawn Listings (No Sale)


Per Broker Metrics: Sales posted to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and

subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. In San Francisco, only houses were included in this

analysis. (SF luxury condos are tracked separately.)

Listings are typically withdrawn from themarket without selling due to buyers perceivingthem as overpriced and/or to avoid slowerselling seasons – especially the mid-winterholidays (late Q4). Luxury homes usually seemuch higher percentages of listings withdrawnwithout selling than lower price segments.

Dec

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Dec

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Active Ultra-Luxury Home Listings on Market




activity. In San Francisco, only houses were included in this analysis. (SF luxury condos are tracked separately.)

Oct.2020

As a general rule of thumb, we define the ultra-luxury home segmentas properties listed for $5 million+ in San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo& Santa Clara Counties, and for $3 million+ in other Bay Area Counties.

Mid-Winter

Mid-Winter


Spring 2019

Fires

Listing inventory in October 2020 up 6% year-over-year.


0

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Ultra-Luxury Home Sales





Mid-Winter

Mid-Winter


Fires

Spring 2019

Oct.2019

Luxury sales volume in October 2020 up 64% year-over-year. Sales hit an all-time high in August 2020.

Sales are a lagging indicator, typically reflecting accepted-offer activity 3 to 6 weeks prior to closing. Sales typicallypeak in spring and October - though not in 2020.

As a general rule of thumb, we define the ultra-luxuryhome segment as properties selling for $5 million+ in SanFrancisco, Marin, San Mateo & Santa Clara Counties, andfor $3 million+ in other Bay Area Counties.

Oct.2020


34

15

4645

29 28 30

44

60

41

81

2526

35

54 55 5559

79

85

109

126

SF Houses SantaCruz

SF Condos Alameda Napa Marin Sonoma ContraCosta

SantaClara

Monterey San Mateo

0

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Sale

sYear-over-Year Comparison: Bay Area Ultra-Luxury Home Sales

by Bay Area County, May-October 2019 to May-October 2020

Per sales reported to MLS May through October. Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS. Numbersestimated and may change slightly with late reported sales. Data from source deemed reliable, but may containerrors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

Lines illustrate the number of sales, May-October, 2019 & 2020. Percentages reflectyear-over-year changes in sales.

For San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Claraand Marin Counties, the ultra-luxurythreshold was a house sales price of at least$5 million. For other county house marketsand SF condos, the threshold was $3 million.

+56%+166%+42%+80%+100%+96%+90%+20%-24%-26% +73%

In the 6 months since the pandemic hitthe markets, San Mateo & MontereyCounties had the highest numbers ofultra-luxury home sales. Monterey sawa huge 166% jump year over year.

SF was the only marketto see y-o-y declines inultra-luxury home sales.

City, Town, District, Region # Active Listings

Median List Price

City, Town, District, Region # Active Listings

Median List Price

Pacific-Presidio Heights District (SF)

41 $8,000,000 St. Helena (Napa) 18 $6,650,000

Palo Alto (Santa Clara) 32 $6,850,000 South Beach-SoMa District (SF – condos)

15 $7,750,000

Hillsborough (San Mateo) 28 $8,500,000 Tiburon (Marin) 13 $6,999,000

Carmel (Monterey) 25 $7,400,000 Saratoga (Santa Clara) 13 $6,800,000

Pebble Beach (Monterey) 22 $10,250,000 Los Gatos/Monte Sereno(Santa Clara)

11 $7,500,000

Atherton (San Mateo) 21 $8,500,000 Belvedere (Marin) 10 $7,650,000

Los Altos Hills (Santa Clara)

20 $9,735,000 Los Altos (Santa Clara) 8 $5,925,000

Woodside (San Mateo) 20 $11,300,000 Calistoga (Napa) 8 $11,725,000

City of Napa 20 $7,800,000 Portola Valley (San Mateo) 7 $16,800,000

Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys District (SF)

20 $6,300,000 Kentfield/Ross (Marin) 7 $16,500,000

Lamorinda-Diablo ValleyRegion (Contra Costa)

19 $6,500,000 City of SonomaHealdsburg (Sonoma)

77

$10,000,000$6,995,000

Active/Coming Soon listings posted to MLS in early November 2020. Not all luxury homes are posted to MLS. Not acomprehensive list. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbersare approximate. Median list prices in this price segment can change quickly and dramatically.

Active Listings Priced $5 Million+, Median LIST Prices Locations with highest # of listings, as posted to MLS, early November 2020

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by economic

events, by changes in inventory and buying trends – especially in the new construction and luxury home segments – as well

as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices

in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and

basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are

usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be measured in different ways, are sometimes unreliable (especially

for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square

footage. Generally speaking, all things being equal, a larger home will sell at a lower dollar per square foot value.

Typically, the fewer the sales, the less reliable the statistic. This is especially true of areas with sales across a very wide

range of individual sales prices, such as is often the case in the most expensive market segments. Longer term trends are

more meaningful than short term fluctuations.

How these statistics apply to any particular home is impossible to know without a specific comparative market

analysis.

Data from MLS sales. It may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers in this analysis should be considered approximate.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report

has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally

available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to

the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including

without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the

report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice

and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no

representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any

state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

san francisco bay area luxury home market...pacific heights pacific heights $18,000,000 $9,330,000...

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