saferelnet networking activities - ulisboa for fire safety in tunnels" recommendation on design...

PARIS, 11 MAY 2004Workshop on Standardisation and Codes

Thematic Network on Safety and Reliability of Industrial Products, Systems and Structures

http://mar.ist.utl.pt/saferelnet

SAFERELNET Networking Activities

Welcome and Introduction

Paris, France, 11th May 2004


Liaison and External Networking

Agenda:

• Introduction and Recent Activities

• Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS)

• Fire in Tunnels TN (FIT)

• Modelling Methods and Optimisation of Maintenance


Liaison Organizations1. ASRANET2. JCSS3. ESReDA4. SAMCO5. HARSNET6. ESRA7. FIT8. ISO – TC 989. THEMES10. TRENDS11. S2S12. SAMRail / SAMNet13. RIMAP14. JRC – Institute for Energy Institute for Energy 15. Risk Perception and Assessment in Design


Liaison Organizations

Updated paper available with details for each organization:

• Contact details: name, website and email address;

• Information regarding forthcoming activities.


Networking• JRC presented in London meeting;• Informal representative meeting was not a

success;• Invited to attend the 3rd meeting of the EPSRC

Network on Risk Perception and Assessment in Design held at the University of Bath on 31st March 2004. Theme - Risk Compensation

• Invited all organizations to join us here in Paris.• Invited JCSS, FIT and AFNOR to address

SAFERELNET

TNO Building and Construction Research 1

Mission and Work Program of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety

Ton Vrouwenvelder

TNO/TU-Delft,

The Netherlands

Michael H. Faber

ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

Marios Chryssanthopoulos

University of Surrey, Guildford, UK


JOINT COMMITTEE ON STRUCTURAL SAFETY

A committee in the field of Structural related Risk and Reliability,

acting on behalf of the Liaison Committeeof CIB, IABSE, ECCS, fib and RILEM,

coordinating activities of the associationsand active on issues of general importance

http://www.jcss.ethz.ch/


Organisations supporting JCSS

CIB: Conseil International du BatimentECCS: European Convention for Constructional steelworkfib: Fédération Internationale de BétonIABSE: International Association for Bridge and Structural

EngineeringRILEM: Réunion Internationale des Laboratoires d�Essais et de

Recherces sur les Matériaux et les Constructions


JCSS Terms of Reference

•improve general knowledge in the field

•inter-associational pre-normative research

•coordination with ISO, Eurocode etc

•support for the work of the Member Associations


ORGANISATION

The Board:

•the JCSS president

•the former president

•the reporters

•one member-specialist per Association

Working Parties:

•WP1 Probabilistic Model Code

•WP2 Risk Analysis


JCSS Board Members • ton vrouwenvelder president • rudiger rackwitz former president• marios chryssanthopoulos reporter WP1• michael faber reporter WP2 • peter tanner rilem• luc taerwe fib• gerhart sedlacek eccs• dan frangopol Iabse• haig gulvanessian cib


The JCSS Creed

Find the design decision that minimise the cost expectation E[C ]

min Eθ[C(D,θ)]

θ = (θ1,θ2�θn) characterises the random state of nature

D1

D2

D3

θ1θ2

θ3

C(D2,θ1)

C(D2,θ2)

C(D2,θ3)

Decision D Outcome θ(random)

Concequence C


PAST WORK

• Statistical evaluation of test results• Assessment of existing structures• Robustness• Code Calibration

ONGOING WORK

• The Probabilistic Model Code• Target reliabilities / LQI• Risk assessment / consequence modelling• Durability and fatigue


DOCUMENT ON THE ASSESSMENT OFEXISTING STRUCTURES

• general approach • use of various sources of information • formal updating procedures • target reliabilities• general cost benefit analysis• human safety• pre-posterior decision analysis


Code calibration

optimizationcalibration

target reliability βt

Standardised α�s Min Σ wj (βj - βt)2

γ - values


JCSS Code Calibration Program - Input Sheet

1. General InputEditor : ?

Date : ?

Comment : ?

2. Design Situation

Design Situation 1: One Variable Load Design Situation 2: Two Variable Loads

Design Equation Design Equation ?

Limit State Function Limit State Function ?

3. Stochastic Model of Time Invariant Variables

Resistance RMaterial : ?

Distribution Type : ?

E[R] = ?

D[R] = ?

F[Rk] = % ?

Model Uncertainty ξDistribution Type : ?

Clear Sheet

Editor's Name

11.03.2003

Example values for Codecal, the JCSS

code calibration program.

Design Situation 1: One Variable Load Design Situation 2: Two Variable Loads

Check Design Situation

Structural Steel, etc.

Weibull

1

0.05

5

Lognormal

Compute

( )( ) 1 mG k Q k

kz G Q

Rγ α γ α γ= + −

( ) ( ) 1 0g z R G Qξ α α= − − − ≤X

{ }

( ) ( )( )( ) ( )( )

1 2

1 1 02 2

2 2 01 1

max ,

1 1 Q

1 1 Q

mG G k G Q Q k Q Q k

k

mG G k G Q Q k Q Q k

k

z z z

z G QR

z G QR

γ α γ α α γ α γ ψ

γ α γ α α γ α γ ψ

=

= + − + −

= + − + −

( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )( ) ( ) ( )

{ }

1 1

2 1 2

3 1 2

1 2 3

1 0

1 1 0

1 1 0

min , ,

G G Q

G G Q L Q A

G G Q A Q L

g z R G Q

g z R G Q Q

g z R G Q Q

ξ α α α

ξ α α α α

ξ α α α α

β β β β

= − − − ≤ = − − − + − ≤ = − − − + − ≤

=

X

X

X

Fill in Example Values 4. Variable Loads5. Partial Safety Factors6. Computation Options

1. General Input 2. Design Situation 3. Time Invariant Variables

Exit CodeCal

Today


JCSS Probabilistic Model Code

• Part 1 Basis of Design• Part 2 Modeling of loads• Part 3 Modeling of structural properties

• http://www.jcss.ethz.ch/• select “publications”• select “jcss model code”


Conclusion

JCSS activities aim at codes that give

• explicit guidance for risk and reliability analysis or• procedures that are well calibrated in a probabilistic sense

further detailed information can be found in

• ICASP-paper 2003• recent publications• on the JCSS-website http://www.jcss.ethz.ch/.


WORKSHOP Lyngby, AUG 23-25 2004

Organised by:The Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS)Section of Maritime Engineering, DTUUniversity of California at Berkeley

Part I: Reliability Analysis of Complex SystemsKeynote: Armen Der Kiureghian

Part II Stochastic Fatigue and Fracture Analysis of Metallic StructuresKeynote: Marios Chryssanthopoulos

Sponsored by COWIfonden and DNV (Det Norske Veritas)

http://www.mek.dtu.dk/staff/od/workshop2004.htm

1

^^^^

FIT General Presentation (October 2003)

European Thematic NetworkEuropean Thematic NetworkFIT FIT –– “Fire in Tunnels” “Fire in Tunnels” (2001(2001--2005)2005)

Guy MARLAIRCertification DivisionINERIS

In collaboration with :

Johan Van Dessel & Yves Martin, BBRI

Meeting SAFERELNET, La Défense, 10-11 May 2004

FIT General Presentation (saferelnet)

European Thematic Network

!European platform!Improved coordination between all

stakeholders!Critical mass!European approach and European

policy!Focussed on “Fire In Tunnels”


FIT – Short History

HOT Socio-economic problem

" Oct 2001 - St Gotthard Tunnel (CH):11 fatalities, large damage

" Aug 2001 - Gleinalm (A): 5 dead" Nov 2000 – Kaprun (A): 155 fatalities in ski-tunnel" Mai 1999 – Tauern (A): 12 dead, significant transport

problems" March 1999 – Mt Blanc (F): 39 dead, significant

transport problems, still closed

"Latest disaster : The Daegu metro fire(Korea), close to 200 dead


FIT - Short History

!Created out of!the actuality of the subject!different RTD ideas on fire and tunnels

! Introduced in the GROWTH 2000 Call KA1 “Innovative products, processes and organisation” 1.9 TRA ‘infrastructure’ (Safe and Cost Effective...)

With reference toKA2 “Sustainable mobility and intermodality


Some Key Figures

!Start date 01 March 2001!Four (4) years FIT Networking

!Total budget: 1 478 550 EUR!33 partners - 12 countries

!2295 ManDays!307 travels


FIT - Objectives

!To disseminate up to date knowledge gainedfrom current practises and on-goingEuropean and National Research projects

!To provide a European plaform thatessentially seeks to contribute to Europeanconsensus for fire safety in tunnels" Recommendation on design fire scenarios" Compilation of guidelines fire safe design" Best practise for fire response management

! For road, rail and metro tunnel


FIT Partnership

CUR/COBTNO

ENEARFISESM

DMTFOGTECGRSHOCHTIEFStuva

DRAGADOSIETCCMetro de Madrid

LTFCETUEUROTUNNELInerisRATP

FSDSPStockholm Fire Brigade

VTT

SITU

ARUPBREHSEKent Fire BrigadeMott MacDonaldUOG

COWISund & Baelt

TRAFICONBBRI

ALPTRANSIT


FIT Partnership

ITRFIESIETCC

FIVTTUKHSE

UKUniversity of GreenwichDEHochtief

BETraficonDEGRS

NLTNODEFOGTEC

DESTUVASEFSD

SEStockholm Fire BrigadeFREurotunnel

SESPITENEA

DKSund & BaeltESDragados

ATSITUDEDMT

ITSESMNLCUR/COB

FRRATPDKCOWI

UKMott Mac DonaldFRCETU

FRLyon Turin Ferroviaire UKBRE

ESMetro MadridBEBBRI

UKKent Fire BrigadeUKARUP

ESINERISFRAlpTransit

CountryPartnersCountryPartners


FIT Partnership

Stockholm Fire Brigade, Kent Fire Brigade2Emergency service

LTF, AlpTransit, CETU, Eurotunel, Metro de Madrid, RATP, Sund & Baelt, RFI

8End-user

Dragados, Hochtief2Contractor

Fogtec, Traficon2Producer – Equipment

ARUP, COWI, DMT, FSD, Mott Mac Donald, SESM, STUVA

7Consultancy

SITU, UOG2Higher Education

BBRI, BRE, CUR/COB, ENEA, GRS, HSE, IETCC, INERIS, SP, TNO, VTT

11Research organisation

Organisation#Type


FIT - Workpackages

1.RTD projects2.Test sites3.Numerical model4.Equipment5.Fire accidents6.Upgrading of tunnels

INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP (February 2004)

WP1Consultable Databases

WP2Recommendation

on design fire scenario’s

WP3Compilation of

guidelines for fire safe design

WP4Best practise for

fire response management

WP5: Information & CommunicationNewsletters Website Meetings & visits


WP1 ‘Consultable Databases’

1. RTD (National and European) – BBRI2. Test-sites - INERIS3. Numerical Models (codes, experimental data) - BRE4. Safety equipment - DMT5. Fire accidents in tunnels - INERIS6. Upgrade activities in tunnels – STUVAFIT partners + Co-opted + Corresponding members



1. RTD – 31 entries2. Test-sites – 19 entries3. Numerical Models – 17 entries4. Safety equipment – 73 entries5. Fire accidents in tunnels

– 40 entries - overview with 150 entries

6. Upgrade activities in tunnels – 26 entries

17 FIT Co-opted members 450 FIT Corresponding members


WP 2 - Recommendation on Design Fire Scenario’s

Starting date Month nr. 6 Σ MD: 125Network Responsible STUVA

# Listing of design fires# Compilation of design fires via fire incidents reports # Comparison and discussion of design fires curves and

data (Attention to the probabilistic approach - DARTS)# Definition of best fit design fire for a number of

applications and purposes# Draft report 'Recommendation on design fire

scenario's'# Presentation at the FIT workshop


WP 2 - Recommendation on design Fire Scenario’sState of affairs

Well advanced report (version 5a – 187 pages)No part available yet as ‘public working document’

2 Hazards by fires3 Existing Standards and Proposals on Design Fires3.1 Design Fires for Road Tunnels 3.2 Design Fires for Mainline Railway Tunnels3.3 Design Fires for Metro Tunnels

The Course of some actual FiresEvaluation of fire growth rate and peak HRR from experimentsDesign fires referring to the - Structural load

- Ventilation- Equipment- Rescue

4 Future Developments in the Fire Scenarios for Traffic Tunnels


WP 3 - Compilation of Guidelines for Fire Safe Design

Starting date Month nr. 6 Σ MD: 125Network Responsible CETU

# Listing of guidelines for different transport# Consultation on the FIT Website# Definition of essential parts of guidelines # Draft report # Presentation at the FIT workshop


WP 3 - Compilation of Guidelines for Fire Safe DesignState of affairs

Well advanced for road – available on the public partTo be completed for rail – listings soon availableTo be completed for metro – listings soon available

# Introduction / Comparison of modes

Road Rail Metro# Listing of guidelines public public

# Compilation of guidelines public 2004

# Road: F, D, UK, N, A: + CH, Nl# Rail: F, D, I, ES (?), CH, A, UK# Metro: several cities


WP4 - Best Practise for Fire Response Management

Starting date Month nr. 6 Σ MD: 175Network Responsible Mott MacDonald

# Collection of fire incidents and reports, actual practice in emergency management at tunnel sites and guidelines

# Analyses of the above collected information and discussion

# Draft report of the consensus recommendation for Fire Response Management

# Presentation at the FIT workshop


WP5 – Information & Communication

Starting date Month nr. 1 Σ MD: 1451Network Responsible BBRI

# Network meetings & Technical visits # Publication of FIT-newsletter# The FIT-website# The FIT-workshop (Febr 2004)

#230 delegates

# Press release, Poster Session# Other publications :

#The handbook of tunnel Fire safety#www.tunnelfiresafety.co.uk

#Interflam’04#Other misc papers


WP 5 'Information & Communication’Proposal for EU Directive

Joint comment on the proposal for a Directive on minimum safety requirements for tunnels in the Trans-European Road Network

! Comment to EU Commission & Parliament, DG RTD and TREN! Joint comment available on the FIT website on 28.03.03! A major interest for the FIT web users

Positive outcome• Strategic signal of presence• Positive message• The directive finally issued

in April 2004…

D•A•R•T•S


WP5 – Information & Communication

7 Network Meetings in 4 years: "Malmo (S) Oresund Link (2001)"Delft (Nl), 2° Benelux Tunnel Fire Tests (2001)"Chamonix (F), Mont Blanc (2002)"Madrid (E), Metro de Madrid (2002)"Lugano (CH), Alptransit (2003)"Hamburg (D), Elbe Tunnel (2003)


WP 5 'Information & Communication’

FIT Website (1)

# Basic tool for dissemination inside and outside FIT# 6 Consultable Databases on line# Draft reports and endorsed Working Documents# Guidelines on tunnel & Fire# Partner and Co-member descriptions

Consult, feed and comment at http://www.etnfit.net



FIT Website (2)

Statistics about the FIT website2002 2003

" Average of visitor sessions per day: 25 47" Average of page views per day: 150 195" Average of hits per day 496 712

" September 2003: 2 877 visits


WP 5 ‘Information & Communication’

Co-Membership (2)

• Provide a large platform for the FIT working items• Ensure member-state support via national representatives• Ensure European feedback and input via organisations active in

'Fire and Tunnel’• Special focus on:

$ national or regional representatives$Greece, Ireland, Luxemburg, Portugal, Norway$ Future EC countries

CORRESPONDING Members• Visitors and registration at FIT website• Access and input in databases• Feedback on Public Working

Documents

CO-OPTED Members• Selected and invited by FIT Network• Necessary/important for FIT activities• Information input and feedback • Same access level as FIT members• Bound by Confidentiallity Agreement


WP 5 ‘Information & Communication’

Co-Membership (3)

• Corresponding members"About 800 registrated Corresponding members" Still growing – one new Corresponding member a day !

• Co-opted members"17 Confirmed Co-opted members" Including organisations outside EU"Link to other consortiums

#Virtual Fire via Gernot Beer#Sirtaki via ETRA – not yet accepted (coordinator)#Safe Tunnel via Centro Ricerche FIAT (coordinator)#European Fire Services Tunnel Group via Kent Fire Brigade


Management structure and collaboration

SteeringCETUSTUVA

Mott MacdonaldDragados

BBRI

Network Chairman &Steering Committee

Advisory GroupDARTS, UPTUN, Safe-T

Network Co-ordinator

Network Members33 members from 12 European countries

Co-opted Members

Corresponding Members


Collaboration of EU RTD related to tunnel and safety

D•A•R•T•SD•A•R•T•S

“linked projects”

National & International

“linked projects”

Current

Knowledge

2001-2004

New tunnel

(design)

2001-2003

Guidelines

Legislation2002-2004

Safety measures

Existing tunnels2002-2006



International Symposium

• Joint symposium FIT-DARTS-UPTUN! Presentation and discussion of finalised draft documents to a

large public (external organisations)! Forum for discussion and amendments

1° International SymposiumSafe & Reliable TunnelsInnovative European Achievements4-6 February, Prague


Conclusions (1)

# FIT started on 01 March 2001 for at least 4 years

# FIT provides a European platform % European Consensus for fire & tunnels% Exchange of up-to-date knowledge

# Strong partnership !!!% Strong relations with other European Stakeholders

such as ITA, PIARC, UN-ECE, EC DG-Transport% Strong relations with other RTD projects such as

DARTS, UPTUN, Virtual Fire, Sirtaki,... Safe-T

# Good feeling on benefits/cost of the ETN instrument


Conclusions (2)

# FIT Website as Key Communication Point% Newsletter, Working Documents, Public Working Documents,...

# 6 Consultable Databases on fire and tunnel% Operational since 15 March 2002

# Draft reports of WP in good progress% Available as ‘Public Working Document’

# Collaboration of EU RTD projects related to tunnel and safety % Co-opted Members and Corresponding Members% FIT Advisory Group% Joint International Symposium ‘Safe and Reliable Tunnels’

Institut �Jo�ef Stefan�, Ljubljana, SlovenijaOdsek za reaktorsko tehniko - Reactor Engineering Division

"Jožef Stefan“ Institute, Reactor Engineering Division, Jamova 39, Ljubljana, [email protected]

Marko Čepin

Contents

MODELLING METHODS AND OPTIMISATION OF MAINTENANCE

WORKSHOP IN LJUBLJANA, SLOVENIAWORKSHOP PROGRAMME AND PARTICIPANTSCONCLUSIONS


Marko Čepin

WORKSHOP IN LJUBLJANA, SLOVENIA

Workshop on Modeling Methods and Optimization of Maintenance took place on Friday March 26, 2004 in Ljubljana, Slovenia hosted by Reactor Engineering Division of Jo�ef Stefan Institute.

The objective of the workshop was to bring together technical people from industry to share the industrial experience with reliability and maintenance issues, from regulatory bodiesto keep that the rules and regulations are respected, and researchers as developers of the methods.


Marko Čepin

WORKSHOP PROGRAMME

The following contributions were presented:Carlos Guedes Soares, Overview of Risk and Cost Based Inspection and

Maintenance Planning,Radim Bri�, Simulation Based Software Tool for Reliability Optimization of

Maintained Industrial System,Jean-Pierre Signoret, Modelling Maintenance,Romana Jordan Cizelj, Criteria for Risk Informed Decision Making,Rudolf Prosen, Probabilistic Safety Assessment Support for On-Line

Maintenance,Marko Čepin, Maintenance Optimization at Nuclear Power Plants,Jose Caldeira Duarte, Maintenance Planning within the Product Life-Cycle.


Marko ČepinJ a n k o � a n o v i č I n s t i t u t e f o r M e t a l S t r u c t u r e s P o s t e r

R a d i m B r i � T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y O s t r a v a , F a c u l t y o f E l e c t r i c a l E n g i n e e r i n g a n d C o m p u t e r S c i e n c e , C z e c h R e p u b l i c

P a p e r

R o m a n a J o r d a n C i z e l j J o � e f S t e f a n I n s t i t u t e , R e a c t o r E n g i n e e r i n g D i v i s i o n P a p e r

M a r k o Č e p i n J o � e f S t e f a n I n s t i t u t e , R e a c t o r E n g i n e e r i n g D i v i s i o n P a p e r

B e r n t J . L e i r a I n s t i t u t e o f M a r i n e T e c h n o l o g y , F a c u l t y o f E n g i n e e r i n g , S c i e n c e a n d T e c h n o l o g y , N o r w a y

-

A n t o n i o M a n u e l Q u e n t a l M a r t i n s S O P O R C E L , P o r t u g a l -

S a m o U l a g a U n i v e r s i t y o f M a r i b o r , F a c u l t y f o r M e c h a n i c a l E n g i n e e r i n g

-

C a r l o s G u e d e s S o a r e s P a p e r

J o s e C a l d e i r a D u a r t e

U n i t o f M a r i n e T e c h n o l o g y a n d E n g i n e e r i n g , T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y o f L i s b o n , I n s t i t u t o S u p e r i o r T e c n i c o , P o r t u g a l P a p e r

A n d r e j A n d r o j n a J o � e P i n o z a

N u m i p d . o . o . -

F r a n j o V u č e r N u m i p d . o . o . -

M a t j a � K o n č a r S l o v e n i a n N u c l e a r S a f e t y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n -

I v a n K o � u t i č N u c l e a r P o w e r P l a n t K r � k o -

R u d o l f P r o s e n N u c l e a r P o w e r P l a n t K r � k o P a p e r

M i l a n K r u � i č T A L U M d .d . -

F r a n c V a j d a T A L U M d .d . -

J e a n - P i e r r e S i g n o r e t T o t a l F i n a E l f , P a u , F r a n c e P a p e r

D a r k o M o z e t i č H I T , N o v a G o r i c a -


Marko Čepin

Output characteristics of the simulation program - BRIŠ

– Unavailability (resp. availability) • The unavailability (resp. availability) of a system in a time t is the

probability that the system is non-functioning (functioning) at the time t.

System No 1


Marko Čepin

Life Cycle Cost Minimization - DUARTE

Maintenance

Techniques

Reliability

Engineering


Marko Čepin

JORDAN• NRC general guidance for risk-informed decisionmaking• Quantitative PSA criteria:

CDF [/ry]

dCDF [/ry]Region 1

Region 3

Region 2

1E-5

1E-5

1E-6

1E-4 LERF [/ry]

dLERF [/ry]Region 1

Region 3

Region 2

1E-6

1E-6

1E-7

1E-5


Marko Čepin

PROSEN


Marko Čepin Preventive Maintenance SIGNORET

Panne δ(mem.)

11

5

R

λ

µ T1

T2

T3

Production

1000

Storage

MP

MP

PreventiveMaintenance

δ1δ2

1stPréventive

Maintenance

θ

δ1 δ11

year

δ2θ(Possible)

δ2


Marko Čepin

RESULTS (continued) ČEPIN

The results indicate that it is possible to reduce risk by application of the developed algorithm for approximately 5%.

ttt=800, jj=10, example from NT96

0,0000282

0,0000284

0,0000286

0,0000288

0,000029

0,0000292

0,0000294

0,0000296

0,0000298

0,00003

0 10 20 30 40 50 60no. of successfull iterations

mea

n to

p ev

ent p

roba

bilit

y anneal aanneal banneal canneal d

Convergence of the objective function for example system from NT96 � high pressure injection system


Marko Čepin

Deliverables SOARES

• Low Probability of Failure Structures and Equipment

– D7.1-Report on the State-of-the-Art of Risk Based Inspection Planning (issued)

• High Probability of Failure Structures and Equipment

– D7.2 -Report on the State-of-the-Art of Risk Based Maintenance Planning (in preparation)


Marko Čepin

CONCLUSIONS

RESPONSE FROM SLOVENIAN INDUSTRY WAS SATISFACTORY

EXPERIENCE:INDUSTRY NEEDS PRESENTATION OF METHODS, WHICH ARE:- 1. VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY SIMPLE AND CLEAR EXAMPLES AND - 2. DEMONSTRATED THEN ON MORE SOPHISTICATED EXAMPLES

THE CONTENTS OF THE PRESENTATIONS HAS TO BE FOCUSED TO INDUSTRY NEEDS.

PLANNING OF ACTIVITIES IS NEEDED WELL IN ADVANCE. IT IS WORTH CONSIDERING TO JOIN SOME EVENTS.