safefoodera stakeholder group meeting with retailers – emerging risks – ljubljana, 8 - 9...
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SAFEFOODERASAFEFOODERA
Stakeholder Group Meeting with Retailers
– – Emerging Risks –Emerging Risks –
Ljubljana, 8 - 9 February 2007
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Why Emerging Risk Identification?Why Emerging Risk Identification?
timely recognition of critical situations
increased number of options for action to risk managers
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Emerging risk identification
crucial part of any coherent,effective and dynamic food policy
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Europe: Article 34Europe: Article 34of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002
... [EFSA] .... shall establish monitoring proceduresfor systematically searching for, collecting, collating and
analysing information and data with a view to theidentification of emerging risks in the fields within its mission.
major preventative instrument
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usually neglected: long-term consequences andimpacts of factors outside the food chain
not incorporated adequately: various interacting processes which influence the evolution of a risk
often ignored: human factor (only simplistic or standardised schemes of behaviour)
Limitations of Risk AnalysisLimitations of Risk Analysis
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PERIAPT- Workshop (Bonn, July 2004)
International Organisations
Research institutions
Industry
Consumer Organisations
Governmental Bodies
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Hazard a biological, chemical or physical agent in,or condition of, food or feed with the potential to cause anadverse health effect
DefinitionsDefinitionsArticle 3 of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002
Risk a function of the probability of an adverse healtheffect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard
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Emerging Risk a potential food or feed borne or diet-related hazard that may become a risk for human health in the (near) future
DefinitionsDefinitionsPeriapt 2004
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AWACS (Airborne Early Warning and Control System)
The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard itself!
Early Warning System: AWACSEarly Warning System: AWACS
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D A R TDeep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis
Early Warning System:Early Warning System:TsunamiTsunami
The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard itself!
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Weather Balloon (Antarctica)
Drought (Africa)
Flooding (Prague)
Observed indicators are not part of the hazard
but (possibly) suitable to detect a
risk proactively
Pro-active Methodology: Climate Forecast Pro-active Methodology: Climate Forecast
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Emerging Risks: The Holistic ApproachEmerging Risks: The Holistic Approach
Food SafetyFood Safety
Science and Science and TechnologyTechnology
Culture/ Culture/ DemographyDemography
EconomyEconomy
MediaMedia
Nature Nature EnvironmentEnvironment
Consumer Consumer behaviorbehavior
Regulations/ Regulations/ enforcementenforcement
AgricultureAgricultureIndustryIndustry
Analysing the environment of the food supply chain.
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Economy Globalisation
increasing complexity of food production chain – limitations in traceability
Nature & Environment Climate
modified behaviour of microorganisms could lead to new or different biological food risks
. . . .
„„Holistic Vision“Holistic Vision“
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Flow diagram holistic approachFlow diagram holistic approach Periapt 2004
Influential sectors Critical factors Indicators
Nature &Environment
ClimateRainfall &
Temperature
Example: Emerging risk of contamination of crop by mycotoxin-producing moulds
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Threats: interdisciplinary,complex and global issue
Status in 5 – 15 years:Status in 5 – 15 years:
Will fish from the arctic regions still be safe to eat?Will fish from the arctic regions still be safe to eat?
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Key characteristics of anKey characteristics of anEmerging Risk IdentificationEmerging Risk Identification System System
anticipatory approach
process
no replacement of Early Warning Systems
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What to do?What to do?
pro-active identification of food related risks
consideration of plurality of involved factors; identification and weighing of key issues
combination of specialised knowledge fromvarious disciplines
consideration of changing factors
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Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!