russian coal on european market - influencer or follower?
DESCRIPTION
Current presentation was presented on McCloskey's European Coal Conference in Nice, May 2009. It discusses competitiveness of Russian Coal on European market; historic trends of Russian coal export, current production, adn transportation constrains and costs, crisis challenges; discusses Russian coal industry development scenarios and gives recomendations to coal producers and coal users.TRANSCRIPT
Russian coal on European market ‐ market influencer ormarket follower? A8er crisis challenges.
McCloskey European Coal Outlook Conference,Nice, May 2009
Igor Shelukhin
Coal Market ResearchIns5tute/Russian CoalProcurement Company
Some triggers for European coal users
• Over last years Russian coal turned from market follower to market leader with morethen 30% market share in Europe
• Europe is already dependent upon Russian coal same way it is dependent uponRussian gas
• Crises brought many uncertainKes into market ‐ can Russian coal industry offercompeKKve prices and provide stability of supply?
• How much of Russian coal can be sucked by Japanese consumpKon with Far Eastinfrastructure development and thus increase opKons for arbitrage for Russian coalproducers?
A historic review shows unprecedented growth of exportmarket supply
With majority of growth and share coming from sales to Europe
Russian coal sales by sector (mtpa) Russian coal export bydesKnaKon
Source: Russian Coal Market Research InsKtute
Demand has dropped and reply from Russian coal industry ‐drop in producKon
Source: System Operator RAO “UES”, Central Controlling AdministraKon of Fuel‐Energy Complex
1.3% ‐8.1%‐6.7% ‐7.3%
‐4.3% ‐3.8%‐5.0%
3.4%
‐10.5% ‐1
0.0%
‐10.4%
‐8.9%
‐7.7%
‐8.1%
10%
32%14% 4%
‐10%5%
2%‐9%
‐18% ‐20%
As Russian coal is marginal on European market it is the mostvulnerable to demand reducKon
Source: Wood MacKenzie
South Africa
Columbia
20
40
60
80
$/t
40 80 120 160
South Africa
Australia
Russia
Indonesia
Russia
USA
Russian CIF ARA cash cost compeKKve posiKoning, $/t 2008
Key factorsinfluencing
compeKKvenessof Russian coal
1. Internal Russian cost factors: railroad tariffs, naKonal currency exchange rate
2. Global coal demand: South African coal diverKng to India and Australian to Asia
3. Dry cargo freight rate
Current Pricelevel
Taking into account all realisKcally possible cost reducKons forRussian coal export it is sKll high cost
20
40
60
80
$/t
Mining andenrichment
cost
Average Russian coal delivered cost reducKon potenKal (in USD/t)
RailroadtransportaKon
Port, qualityand othercharges
Freight
Average
Total averagecost
RUR/USDexchange rate
effect
Total potenKalcost
18.2 ‐1.8
32.0 ‐4.8
12.0 ‐3.6
7.0 0 71.2 ‐10.8
‐7.0
53.3
‐ current cost (RUR/USD = 33)
‐ cost reduc5on poten5al
‐ lowest poten5al Russian coalcost
Low poten5al ‐export mines usehigh produc5veequipment,enrichmentrequired,
governmentemploymentregula5on
Railway monopolyexpected to
decrease tariff asvolumes drops,
addi5onalpressure from coalcompanies lobby
High portcharges existed
due toinsufficient portcapacity. This isexpected toease up.
Already athistorical low.
If secondcrises wave tocome Rublevalue is
expected todecrease to
38‐40RUR/USD
Lowest
46.2
Lowest cost isfor high
produc5vemines with noenrichmentrequired
Future economy development is sKll extremely uncertain
Source: OECD, IMF
But constantly declining global GDP forecastsSome revival in leading indicators
As an outcome investment decisions are paralyzed.
Three possible world economy development scenarios foreseen
“Fast recovery” scenario “Back to normal” scenario “Slow recovery” scenario
Each scenario will bring different Russian coal export prospects, from fast return on growth pathin “Fast recovery” scenario, to drop in exports to 30% off from 2008 figures in “Back to normal”
European customers might find themselves short of Russian coal
• Average reducKon of 2009 investment program for Russian mining companies is 30%
• New port capacity aiming to add 50% of throughput is on‐line on Far East of Russiaaiming increase of Asian export
• Expected closure of BalKc ports will decrease throughput capacity available forEuropean exports
• Japanese companies are very acKve in Russian offering co‐investment opportuniKesand low‐cost financing
• New projects developing Asian market supply are under consideraKon and realizaKon(Tugnui, Elga)
SoluKon is Kghter links with Russian coal miners
• Scenario planning for procurement strategyrequired
• Develop measures that can be implemented toreduce share of high‐cost suppliers in your porlolio
• Try to understand investment and developmentplans of your long‐term suppliers ‐ are they targeKngcost reducKon
• Develop opportuniKes to co‐invest in mines withgood efficiency prospects for stability of supply
ImplicaKons for buyers ImplicaKons for Russian producers
• Scenario planning for market and investmentstrategy required
• Focus your investment program on mines with goodgeology
• Search for domesKc and niche markets for coalcoming from low efficiency mines ‐ householdheaKng, cement producKon, etc
•Develop fast measures for freezing producKon onlow efficiency mines in case of further downturn
• Think about spin off opKons
• Consider government relaKons acKvity that couldbring to dialog for railway tariffs decrease and portregulaKon
Contacts
CMRI / Russian Coal Procurement Company
Russian Coal Procurement Strategies, Market Research,Investment Projects Due Diligence, Strategic Insight
Igor Shelukhin
Director on Strategy and Development,
Tel: +7 926 535 3435