russell media & behavioral change - stanford...
TRANSCRIPT
September 4, 2008
Media Engagement and Behavioral Change
Martha RussellAssociate Director
Media X at Stanford University
Stanford Energy & Feedback Workshop:End-Use Energy Reductions through Monitoring, Feedback, and Behavior Modification
September 4-5, 2008
September 4, 2008
Awareness, Attitudes, Action, Acknowledgement
“An Inconvenient Truth”broke engagement records around the world
September 4, 2008
We Know a Few Things About Media Impact
The closer an ad is to purchase occasion—the more likely it is to motivate a purchase of the product or brand.
Prior exposure and time-since-exposure matter and these must be measured it in days not weeks or months (Kevin Lane Keller)
On average, ¾ of the people exposed to an ad can’t recall it the next dayAdvertising effects decay over days
Spillover effects exist. Often the advertising will affect other products, categories, sub-brands and sometimes even competitive brands.
Engagement is essential.
September 4, 2008
Broken, Outdated Media Models
Atomization of markets (Chris Anderson)
Simultaneous media exposure (Shultz, Pilotta)
Multitasking is epidemic
Some synergy between and among media forms, yet fragmented in industry
Most, If Not All, Current Media Advertising Models Are “Broken” or Irrelevant in the 21st Century Marketplace
September 4, 2008
Unit of Measure
Always effects the outcome of the modelNo one ever saw a microbe before the invention of the microscope.Only after the microscope was developed could the science of microbiology develop.
Theory affects the interpretation of the measurement. The same measurements were used by:
Ptolemy to place the Earth in the center of the universeCopernicus to place the Sun in the center of the solar system
September 4, 2008
Traditional Media Channels: Paying More for Less
Audience
CPM
September 4, 2008
Sarnoff’s Law
Sarnoff's law states that the value of a broadcast network is proportional to the number of viewers (that could possibly watch.)
CPM is based on this linear view.
September 4, 2008
Metcalfe’s Law
Metcalfe's law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of users of the system (n²).
Blogs’ impact may follow this pattern.
September 4, 2008
Moore’s Law –> Reed’s Law
Adapting Moore's Law to media calls up an exponential increase (every two years?) in the available content for consumers.
• Reed's law is the assertion that the utility of large networks, particularly social networks, can scale exponentially with the size of the network, so that even if the utility of groups available to be joined is very small on a per-group basis, eventually the network effect of potential group membership can dominate the overall economics of the system.
September 4, 2008
Multiple Media Metrics
LinearNewsTVRadioInternet
SquareBlogsIMPicture PhoneVideogames
ExponentialWOMViralNetwork effects
September 4, 2008
Attention/Engagement Economy
Unit of changePerson, household, community, countryAppliance, room, home, neighborhood, state, country, planetInnovation, technology transfer, sustained change
Metrics of effectivenessDepend on unit of changeGoal of engagementLinear, square, exponential
September 4, 2008
MediaMedia XResearch Activities Research Activities Influencing Influencing
Technology Design & UseTechnology Design & UseInteractive Tech & ChangeInteractive Tech & Change
Fundamental Insights with Broad Applicability
Pea, Baron, Schwarz –Out-of-school learning environments
Klemmer -Design matters
Aghajan -Virtual sensors
Fogg -Captology, simplicity
Rheingold -User generated content
Nass -Emotional states
Reeves –Arousal and engagement,leadership
Bailenson -Social affordances, personalization
Heinrichs -Service rehearsal
September 4, 2008
Personalization and Engagement
Jeremy Bailenson, 2007
September 4, 2008
Virtual Training, Real Lessons
SUMMIT, 2008
September 4, 2008
Design Can Be Leveraged
User’s Perception About Device
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Sincere PraiseFlatteryGenericSincere CritInsincere Crit
People are people firstSocial rules are applied to computers and devices!Findings in social psychology are relevant to human responses to
computersPraise and criticism are different
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Sincere PraiseFlatteryGenericSincere CritInsincere Crit
User’s Positive Feeling about Self
Cliff Nass, 2007
September 4, 2008
Smart Environments
Aghajan, 2008
Distributed Camera Networks
September 4, 2008
Smart Devices, Smart Spaces
Boomers/VCRs to toddler remotesRemote control generationBackground - foreground attention
September 4, 2008
New Media Influences
Sound bites and multipexed messagesParticipatory cultureCommunity and belongingShared rewardsEpidemeological basis to spread of ideas Thresh hold of communicability
Sharing information Telling storiesParticipation dashboardsInformation transparency
September 4, 2008Byron Reeves Research Board 2008
Games Engage and Inspire
September 4, 2008
Big Audiences
10M in World of Warcraft1M in Second Life in last 30 days (12M total)144M have a Neopet80M in Habbo Hotel400M across all titles80% of workers will have avatar 20115K meet in intraverse weekly at IBM
Byron Reeves Research Board 2008
From Beck & Wade, “Got Game…” and Yee “Demographics of Game….”
Big People
33 years old (mean age in MMOs)6x the number of teensMajority work full time>25% have kids$85K (mean household income)2/3 have some college75/25 = men to women in MMO50/50 = men to women in Second Life
Big Time
>25 hrs/week (mean time playing)Oldest play most (40+ = 30 hrs/week)Youngest play least (<22 hrs/week)Women > men (5 hrs/week)Watch 10 hrs/week less TV
Games Are BIG
Big Bucks
$40B industry10M users x $15/mo (World of Warcraft)$500M in a week (Grand Theft Auto)$1B aftermarket for virtual goods72nd largest economy (Star Wars Galaxies)
September 4, 2008
Recipe for Great Games
1. Self representation2. Feedback3. Ranks and levels4. Transparency5. Economies6. Narrative7. Teams8. Communication 9. Rules10. Time pressure
Byron Reeves Research Board 2008
