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ISSUE: 053

07TH SEPTEMBER, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

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Associates of KSBL might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. Associates of KSBL might have received compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services rendered as Registrar and Share Transfer Agent, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data processing, profiling and related services or in any other capacity.KSBL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. Compensation of KSBL’s Research Analyst(s) is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. KSBL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.KSBL or its associates collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. KSBL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report. Accordingly, neither KSBL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. It is confirmed that Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.

Automobile companies may need to rejig to more sustainable business models

Automobile sales declined to their lowest for months in August and the industry is again looking for aid from the government. The Centre has announced already a few measures, such as deferring the revised registration charges, replacement of the previous fleet of vehicles by the government ministers and departments. Also, an accelerated rate of depreciation for the automobiles bought in the current fiscal year. However, the above measures may barely address some of the main factors behind the auto sector slowdown. The external factors like congested traffic, operating costs of a vehicle, scarcity of parking spaces and mainly the squeeze in household incomes may not boost up the auto sales. On a moderate level, ride offering services by the cab companies might also reduce the retail demand in the metro cities. A GST cut may help the sector a bit, but the current crisis may also turn out to be an opportunity to restructure the business models of the auto companies for their businesses to sustain in the long term. The solution may not lie in just transitioning to the EV segment but also addressing the issue of slowing down demand in the private personal vehicles which may continue to persist in the future which implies to alter the business models by the auto manufacturing leaders. CAGR of passenger vehicles sales which was noted as 8% in FY-09 many not continue in the current scenario, the growth rate has already slipped to 6.17% during the last five years.

In the current scenario, it might be right for the auto companies to turn into integrated mobility-service providers which are currently being followed by many renowned global companies such as BMW, Renault and Peugeot. Renault offers a range of shared and environmentally responsible solutions, re-inventing beyond a vehicle manufacturer. The company has subsidiaries providing services such as ride hailing, vehicle sharing, short term rental and vehicle pooling. Peugeot was among the first auto manufacturers to venture into car sharing in 2009 and had now merged its sharing operations with a similar operation of its competitor BMW to form a new JV with Daimler AG –Share Now. Recently, M&M’s decision to buy over 55 % stake in Meru Cabs, a ride-hailing and radio cab service provider implies a change in their business model. Prior to it, M&M also invested in a car sharing service provider called zoom cars. The Korean company Hyundai which has Indian presence is also considering buying a stake in Ola and is transitioning to manufacture EVs for the ride hailing class.

From the above discussion so far, it is evident about the financial and ecological effects in regards to owning personal vehicles. As the NITI Aayog report observes, 80% of the fuels for transport needs are imported, only 18% is used for commercial energy which is of 70% diesel. However, 99.6% of imported petrol is consumed by passenger vehicles. However, the future is of renewable and eco-friendly transportation. Hence, if the current automobile companies don’t rejig themselves, they may get disrupted by more innovative rivals.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-15

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Arun Kumar Mantri

Osho Krishan

Amit Samar

M V Narasinga Rao

Deepak Balkrushna Sakure

Chetan K Waghray

Srinivas Krishnan Bobba

Viplav Dhandhukia

Konpal Pali

Sarath Kumar Jutur

Sourabh Gilda

Vivek Lohumi

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Bharat Sunnam

Vinod Jayakumar

Ramesh Chenchala

Ravi Pandey

Kushal Asthana

Amit Kumar

Arpit Chandna

Karvy Head Office

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- DR. RAVI SINGHHead-Technical & Derivatives Research

EQUITY

Economy:

• According to official sources, the Finance Ministry will review the progress made by various CPSEs with regard to their capital expenditure envisaged for the current fiscal.

• Foreign direct investment (FDI) equity inflows rose 28% in the first quarter of 2019-20 to $16.3 Bn from $12.7 Bn in the year-ago period, official data showed on Wednesday. Singapore continued to be the top source of FDI at $5.3 Bn followed by Mauritius at $4.6 Bn.

• Rating agency CRISIL on Wednesday cut India’s fiscal year 2020 GDP growth forecast to 6.3% from its earlier forecast of 6.9%, after the economy grew 5% in the first quarter, it’s slowest in almost 6 years. The agency said that lower GDP growth forecast corroborates that India’s economic slowdown is deeper and more broad-based than suspected.

Agriculture:

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi will launch the farmers’ pension scheme Pradhan Mantri Kisan Maan-Dhan Yojana (PM-KMY) from Ranchi on September 12 with a subscriber base of more than one million.

Banking & Finance:

• The RBI late on Wednesday ordered all banks to link certain loans to the external benchmark based interest rate from Oct. 1, saying banks had not satisfactorily passed on the benefit of recent policy rate cuts to consumers.

• Credit disbursals by non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) continued to slide despite regulatory measures to boost credit to the sector. Loan sanctions plunged 28% in the quarter to June, almost a year after the liquidity squeeze that followed the unexpected default by Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS).

• The Carlyle Group and General Atlantic Singapore Fund FII Pte Ltd are set to raise their investments in PNB Housing Finance, a move that may come as a major confidence booster for the non-banking financial sector that is undergoing a credit squeeze.

• Two years after its listing, Aditya Birla Capital Limited (ABCL) raised Rs. 1,000 crore from private equity fund Advent International as part of a larger Rs. 2,100 crore capitalization exercise that will also see an equal contribution from promoter entities. Existing investor PremjiInvest will put in Rs. 100 crore.

Auto:

• Owing to the slowdown in the automobile industry, Mahindra & Mahindra has deferred its planned capex of around Rs. 1,000 crore by a year, which, if not reversed within this fiscal, would lead to more job losses in the sector, the company’s MD Pawan Goenka said on Thursday.

• If there is a stable policy framework from the government in terms of identifying CNG as one of the solutions to the rising pollution crisis, Volkswagen, the German carmaker, which already has a considerable presence in Europe in terms of CNG vehicles, will consider bringing these to India, Steffen Knapp, director of Volkswagen Passenger Cars, told ET.

• Commercial vehicles major Ashok Leyland Ltd closed last month with a 47% drop in sales, the company said on Tuesday.

• Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari said he would urge Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to cut goods and services tax (GST) rates on automobiles temporarily in order to help revive the industry following a sustained clamor from companies for such a reduction.

Power & Oil

• The National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) has approved JSW Steel’s Rs. 19,700 crore bid for debt-ridden Bhushan Power & Steel Ltd (BPSL).

• Reliance Power has signed a pact to induct Japanese utility JERA as a partner for the 750 MW-gas based combined cycle power project it is setting up in Bangladesh, the Anil Ambani-led company said on Tuesday.

• Reliance Industries and BP are seeking buyers for natural gas from their $5 Bn deep sea project in the KG D6 block at a time when rates have crashed due to global supply glut.

• The government on Tuesday raised the price of sugarcane-extracted ethanol used for blending in petrol by up to Rs. 1.84 per liter as it looked to cut oil import bill by USD 1 Bn annually through its greater use in auto fuels.

Steel• Tata Steel Europe on Monday said it has signed a deal with Japanese steel giant JFE Shoji

Trade Corporation for selling its subsidiary Cogent Power Inc (CPI). However, Tata Steel did not provide any financial details of the deal.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• The British parliament voted on Wednesday to prevent Prime Minister Boris Johnson taking Britain out of the European Union without a deal on Oct. 31, but rejected his first bid to call a snap election two weeks before the scheduled exit.

• Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam withdrew the extradition bill that sparked months of demonstrations, bowing to one of the protesters’ demands in the hope of ending the violence.

TRENDSHEETSymbol CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 36981.77 36081 36531 37310 37639 Down

NIFTY 10946.20 10666 10806 11027 11108 Down

NIFTYBANK 27247.90 26397 26822 27492 27736 Down

RELIANCE 1222.50 1160 1191 1248 1274 Down

YESBANK 60.40 55 58 63 65 Down

IBULHSGFIN 425.70 370 398 461 497 Down

MARUTI 6186.95 5637 5912 6341 6495 Up

HDFC 2041.45 1948 1995 2116 2191 Down

ICICIBANK 391.35 377 384 403 414 Down

HDFCBANK 2245.90 2161 2203 2281 2317 Up

TATAMOTORS 121.25 100 111 127 133 Up

SUNPHARMA 425.10 373 399 454 482 Up

AXISBANK 671.10 627 649 683 695 Up

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EVENT EX-DATE

Hinduja Ventures Ltd. Final Dividend - Rs. - 17.50 09/09/2019

HiedelbergCement India Ltd. Final Dividend - Rs. - 3.00 11/09/2019

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. Final Dividend - Rs. - 1.20 11/09/2019

Apex Frozen Foods Ltd. Final Dividend - Rs. - 2.00 11/09/2019

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. Dividend - Rs. - 6.00 12/09/2019

Finolex Industries Ltd. Final Dividend - Rs. - 10.00 12/09/2019

GIC Housing Finance Ltd. Dividend - Rs. - 5.50 12/09/2019

Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd. Final Dividend - Rs. - 4.50 12/09/2019

Talbros Automotive Components Ltd. Dividend - Rs. - 1.80 13/09/2019

Godfrey Phillips India Ltd. Dividend - Rs. - 10.00 13/09/2019

KSTREET - 07TH SEPTEMBER, 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

-1.200

-1.000

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-0.600

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30-08-19 03-09-19 04-09-19 05-09-19 06-09-19

FII/FPI DII


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Sobha Ltd CMP Rs.524Target Price Rs.632Upside 21%

Investment Rationale

• During the quarter, the company experienced a 11% YoY growth in pre-sale volume which stood at 1.06 Mn, although pre-sale value remained flattish YoY due to decrease in realization by 8%.

• Bangalore remains the major driver of pre-sales with volume/value of 0.74 Mnsft/Rs. 5.4 Bn.

• Revenue from residential segment stood at Rs. 8452 Mn, up by 135% YoY. Revenue from contractual division stood at Rs. 3315 Mn, up by 39% YoY and it has an order book of Rs. 22.3 Bn.

• In Q1FY20, the company launched 2 projects spread over 0.61 Msft. It plans to launch 10.6 Msft of area in Bangalore, Gurugram, Delhi, Chennai, Hyderabad, Thrissur, Hosur and GIFT City.

• During the quarter, the company acquired 143 acres of land for Rs. 1.56 Bn across different cities including Bangalore, Gurugram, Hosur and Trivandrum.

• Sobha also acquired a land parcel in Hyderabad and is set to launch its first project in the city in next 2-3 quarters.

• As a result of these acquisitions and delay in collection in few projects on account of delay in executing agreements with customers, the debt increased and the net D/E stood at 1.19. However, the management has indicated that net D/E will decrease to 1.1 by the end of FY20.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 10.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 588/380.3

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $Bn) 49737/694

EPS (Rs.) 53.9

P/E Ratio (times) (FY21E) 9.7

Dividend Yield (%) 0.4

Stock Exchange BSE, NSE

P/E CHARTValuation

We expect players like Sobha to be a major beneficiary of post RERA scenario which has resulted in consolidation in real estate industry wherein reputed players backed by execution track record stand to gain market share from unorganized players. The current liquidity crisis has expedited the consolidation and it will strengthen the position of large players, although we remain cautious of rising debt in Sobha Ltd. We have valued Sobha at 0.8x NAV and we retain “BUY” rating with a target price of Rs. 632 and an upside potential of 21%.

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 34421 45777 52113

EBITDA 7468 9742 10835

EBITDA(%) 21.7 21.3 20.8

PAT 2971 4435 5080

EPS(Rs.) 31.5 47.0 53.9

RoE (%) 13.3 16.6 16.0

PE (x) 15.0 11.2 9.7

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

Se

p-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oct

-18

No

v-18

No

v-18

De

c-18

Jan

-19

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-19

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Sobha Sensex

23%

46%

11%

20%

Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Cyient Ltd. CMP Rs.437Target Price Rs.637Upside 46%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 5.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 821/414

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 48046/671

EPS (Rs.) 47.1

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 9.3

Dividend Yield (%) 4%

Stock Exchange BSE/NSE

EQUITY

P/E CHART

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 46175 47628 51271

EBITDA 6328 6887 7414

EBITDA(%) 13.7 14.5 14.5

PAT 4771 5060 5326

EPS(Rs.) 42.4 44.8 47.1

RoE (%) 19.4 18.7 17.7

PE (x) 15.3 9.8 9.3

P/EV(x) 2.3 2.4 2.0

Investment Rationale

• In Q1FY20, overall revenue stood at USD 156.6 Mn (down by 5.2% sequentially and -2.6% on yearly basis). In INR terms, overall revenue stood at Rs. 10,890 Mn, a flat yearly growth of 0.8% with a sequential de-growth of 6.4%.

• Overall fresh order intake stood at USD 155 Mn.

• Revenue from Services stood at USD 137.9 Mn, down by 6.1% on QoQ basis (-5.7% in cc terms). DLM (Design-led Manufacturing) revenue was at USD 18.7 Mn, increase by 2.2% on quarterly basis.

• Services quarterly revenue was impacted by de-growth in verticals including Communications (-10.7%), Energy & Utilities (-5.7%), Portfolio (-10.0%) and Aerospace & Defense (0.1%). A&D and Communications verticals were impacted by client-specific issues.

• Consolidated EBIT was at Rs. 1004 Mn, a decrease of 33% over previous quarter. EBIT margin stood at 9.2% down by 358 bps on a quarterly basis. It was negatively impacted by one time impact of lower efficiencies, lower SG&A absorption and increased investments.

• In Q1FY20, PAT was at Rs. 904 Mn, down by 48.8% sequentially. It was due to lower EBIT and low other income. Other income came down by Rs. 507 Mn (-64% QoQ) due to lower treasury income and lower unrealized gains, which was offset by realized favorable forward contract gains.

• In addition, during Q1FY20, effective tax rate (ETR) was higher by 670 bps at 22.0% on QoQ basis.

Valuation

Since company has a good order conversion rate (80%), we believe the revenue to be back to normal sooner. We believe projects related to NBA program will be revenue accretive in coming years. Also, the cost optimization program will help improve efficiencies and margins in coming quarters. Thus, we recommend a “BUY” rating for Cyient with a target price of Rs.637, an upside potential of 46%, based on the 3-year historical average target P/E of 13.5x to its FY21E EPS of Rs. 47.1.

23%

46%

11%

20%Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Se

p-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oct

-18

No

v-18

No

v-18

De

c-18

Jan

-19

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-19

Ap

r-19

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Cyient Sensex


EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Maruti Suzuki India Limited

Maruti Suzuki India Limited, formerly known as Maruti Udyog Limited was founded by the Government of India in 1981, only to merge with the Japanese automobile company Suzuki in October 1982. It is a 56.21% owned subsidiary of the Japanese car and motorcycle manufacturer Suzuki Motor Corporation. The first manufacturing factory of Maruti was established in Gurgaon, Haryana, in the same year. In 1982, a license and joint venture agreement (JVA) was signed between Maruti Udyog Ltd and Suzuki of Japan. Since the day of iconic Maruti 800 which was launched in 1983, the company has been spearheading a revolution of change. The company has 3570 sales outlets and 3735 service workshops across india. The company aims to double its sales network to 4,000 outlets by 2020. The company is also in the business of insurance via Maruti insurance; and also in the business of finance via Maruti Finance. As of July 2018, it had a market share of 53% of the Indian passenger car market. Maruti Suzuki manufactures and sells popular cars such as the Ciaz, Ertiga, Wagon R, Alto K10 and Alto 800, Swift, Celerio, Swift Dzire, Baleno and Baleno RS, Eeco, Ignis, S-Cross, Nexa and Vitara Brezza. The Brand Trust Report published by Trust Research Advisory, a brand analytics company, has ranked Maruti Suzuki in the thirty seventh position in 2013 and eleventh position in 2014 among the most trusted brands of India.

Power Grid Corporation of India Limited

Powergrid is a “Navaratna” Central Public Sector Enterprise. It has one of India’s largest Electric Power Transmission Utility. The company was consistently rated “Excellent” by Ministry of Power since 1993-94. The company has 160,478 ckm Transmission Lines, 244 Sub-Stations, with greater than 99 % System Availability and 381,642 MVA Transformation Capacity. Powergrid has also a Transmission related consultancy to more than 150 domestic clients and has global footprints in 20 countries catering more than 25 clients. The company also owns and operates an equivalent of 60,946 km of Telecom Network and has Points of Presence in 688 locations. It has also had an Intra City network in 105 cities across India with a backbone Telecom Network Availability greater than 99.5%. Powergrid undertakes transmission of electricity through Inter-State Transmission System (ISTS) and discharges all functions of planning co-ordination relating to ISTS with all concerned authorities. It also ensures development of an efficient, co-ordinated and economical system of inter-state transmission lines for smooth flow of electricity from generating stations to the load centres. The company has dominance with operations equivalent to 90% of Inter-State / Inter-Regional networks.

STOCK MARUTI

CMP 6186.95

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 6175

AVERAGE 5500

STOP LOSS 4900

TARGET 1 8100

TARGET 2 8800

TIME FRAME 6-9 MONTHS

STOCK POWERGRID

CMP 203.5

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 203-200

AVERAGE 194

STOP LOSS 180

TARGET 1 240

TARGET 2 250

TIME FRAME 6-9 MONTHS


EQUITY

Sentiment

Initiation 196.50

Stop Loss 203

Target 188

Lot Size 2500

Margin 85000

21-DEMA 201

Open Interest Shares 22475000

Change in OI 3182500

Cost of Carry (%) 4.69

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY BANK (27247.90) marginally outperformed the Nifty with a loss of 0.66% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty gained by 0.70%. Recently, BankNifty repelled from its 13 days EMA and is making lower lows indicating its bearish bias in the short term ahead unless it crosses and sustains above 28280 levels. For the index, short term momentum indicators on daily charts are trading below their equilibrium levels after witnessing resistance from the same, indicating to take a sell on rising approach for short term traders. For the week ahead, the index may trade with a bearish bias if it sustains below 28280 levels. On the news front, RBI has mandatorily asked banks to link their loan products to key repo rates or external benchmarks. The change will come into effect from October 1, 2019. The move will make home loans and auto loans cheaper from October onward as the banks will now be forced to pass on the multiple rate cuts the RBI has made in recent monetary policy meetings. Banks have been given the option to choose the external benchmarks which include policy repo rate decided by the monetary policy committee (MPC). The other two benchmarks include Government of Indias 3-month and 6-month Treasury bill yields published by the Financial Benchmarks India Private Ltd (FBIL). The banks can also use any other benchmark market interest rate published by the FBIL. On the stock front, RBLBANK closed in green with gains of 2.96% during the week while PNB, INDUSINDBK and ICICIBANK lost by 5.55%, 4.71% and 4.28% respectively. As indicated by the derivatives data, BankNifty may face resistance at 27500 levels followed by 28000 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 27000 levels followed by 26500 levels.

NIFTY IT (16034.55) traded on a flat note, settled with change of merely 0.11% on weekly closing basis on account of volatility in rupee. On the stock front, only two stocks managed to outperform the underlying index such asTECHM 4.09% & INFY 3.11% while all other stocks TATAELXSI -0.15%, HCLTECH -0.17%, MINDTREE -0.66%, WIPRO -1.04%, OFSS -1.22%, TCS -2.73%, INFIBEAM -3.08% & NIITTECH -3.43% closed in a negative territory on a weekly closing basis. Technically, index after forming a double bottom near 15200 levels witnessed a smart recovery in last few sessions. Currently, index is holding well above its major 200-DEMA which is currently placed near 15439 levels, moved above its 21-DEMA placed near 15794 levels. On the momentum oscillator front, 14-pd weekly RSI found support near equilibrium level and gradually inching higher, indicating renewed buying interest in the index. On the downside, index has an immediate support near 15800 levels followed by 15600 levels while on the higher side, 16200 will work as an immediate resistance followed by 16450-16500 levels. Going forward, index on sustaining above 15800 levels is likely to trade with mixed to positive bias between 15800-16400 levels and on failing to protect 15800 may correct further below 15600 mark.

NIFTY METAL (2,357.70) outperformed the Nifty with a gain of 3.06% during the week passed by while Nifty slipped by -0.75%. The stocks which have outperformed the NIFTY METAL index during the week were COALINDIA 7.28%, SAIL 5.77%, WELCORP 7.35% & TATASTEEL 3.52%, while VEDL 2.05%, NMDC 0.72%, HINDZINC 0.21% MOIL -1.91% on a weekly closing basis. Technically, index is trading below 50/200-DEMA on the daily chart and below all major moving averages on weekly chart. On the momentum oscillator front, 14-pd weekly RSI found support near equilibrium level and gradually inching higher, indicating renewed buying interest in the index.The index has an immediate support near 2150 levels followed by 2000 levels while on the higher side, 2450 will work as an immediate resistance followed by 2600 levels. For the week ahead, the index may trade with mixed to positive bias if it sustains below 2280 levels.

NIFTY REALTY (254.30) has ended the week with a loss of around 4.57% while Nifty 50 closed with a cut of 0.75% underperforming the benchmark index. The breadth of the REALTY index was also negative as 8 out of 10 stocks in the index ended on a negative note while 2 stocks ended on a note positive. The stocks which gained last week were MAHLIFE and PRESTIGE which gained around 5.69%, and 1.17% respectively while OBEROIRLTY, DLF, SUNTECK, IBREALEST, SOBHA, GODREJPROP, PHOENIXLTD and BRIGADE lost around -10.73%, -8.18%,-3.92%,-2.73%,-2.19%,-1.74%,-1.54 and -1.05% respectively. Technically, the said index is trading below its daily & weekly 20 period Simple moving average (SMA) indicating weak bias in the near term. The Daily and the weekly 14-period RSI is trading below its 9 periods EMA, indicating choppy negative bias the near term. Going ahead for the coming week, the index has support at 246 levels and below it at 235 levels while resistance is pegged at 262 levels and above it at 269 levels.

BAJAJ AUTO LIMITED: BUY BAJAJ-AUTO (SEP FUTURE) | CMP: 2841.85 SECTOR: AUTO

BAJAJ-AUTO is trading with bullish bias on daily charts making repeated cycles of higher highs and higher lows. The stock is our preferred pick in the Auto space and has outperformed major of its peers in the last few sessions breaking well above the consolidation above 2800 levels with notable trading volumes. The counter has given a massive breakout above the 200-DMA in the Friday’s session and concluded well above the same. The stock price is currently trading above the major short and medium term moving averages on daily charts placed above the good support levels of 2780-2800. On the Bollinger Band (20, 2), the stock is rolling with the lower band turning towards the northward direction indicating the supports shifting towards the higher levels. A key support for the stock is placed at 2800 followed by 2750 levels while resistance is pegged around 2880-2900 levels in the short term period. From the risk reward point of view, the stock is looking attractive at current levels which are trading around the strong support zone. Smart traders may go long on the stock around 2820 levels keeping stop loss below 2750 for the targets of 2910 levels in the September derivatives series.

Sentiment

Initiation 2820

Stop Loss 2750

Target 2910

Lot Size 250

Margin 119000

21-DEMA 2737

Open Interest Shares 2290000

Change in OI 155750

Cost of Carry (%) 1.61

AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD: SELL AMBUJACEM (SEP FUTURE) | CMP: 195.20 SECTOR: CEMENT

AMBUJACEM has witnessed fall consecutively from past three weeks and has shown underperformance from its broader index. The stock is in cycle of lower lows and lower highs indicating inherent weakness in the counter. Technically, the stock is placed below all its major moving averages. On oscillator front, 14 periods RSI has seen a negative crossover and is placed around 39-40 levels indicating further downside room in the counter. Also on the Bollinger band (20, 2), the stock has been testing the lower band from the highs of 210-215 and is unable to witness any sign of recovery affirming the bearishness in the counter. On derivative front, short addition has been witnessed on week on week basis, concluding the weakness in the counter to continue in near future. Hence for the coming week it is advisable to go short in the counter on any bounce towards 196.50 keeping a stop loss placed above 203 levels for the potential downside of 188 levels.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (10946.20): Nifty ended the event packed truncated week on a slight negative note and retained its sideways trend tag. Powered by gains on Friday, Nifty managed to curtail its losses to 75 basis points for the week and has shut shop at 10946. Improved risk on sentiments across globe has provided some respite to equity markets. Retracement of bond yield inversions, indications of improved environment on trade talks can be attributed as major factors. However, relentless selling from foreign players is keeping our indices under bear grip. Going forward, global macro economic data points especially GDP and inflation numbers are crucial in deciding the prices of asset classes while on the domestic front, amid slowdown concerns, our inflation and production numbers will play a very decisive role in determining the market’s direction. Technically, Nifty is getting supply at its major short term moving averages while the aggression in selling has reduced over the last few days. Nifty has two unfilled major gaps (10848-10867 and 10967-11023), and filling of the same may trigger directional move in the direction of filling the gap. Going forward, for the truncated week, we expect Nifty to continue to trade in its broader range of 10750 to 11150 with positive bias.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

TYPE CALL RATIO IN BANK NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of BANKNIFTY 12SEP 27300 CE @ 232

SECOND LEG Sell 2 lot of BANKNIFTY 12SEP 27500 CE @ 150

BEP Upper BEP 27768

MAX PROFIT 5360

MAX LOSS Unlimited above UBEP

RATIONALE After initial sell-off, Bank Nifty witnessed consolidation and started recovering in last few sessions. Going forward, index is likely to find support at lower levels and may witness further pullback. Therefore, one may initiate Call Ratio spread in the index.

TYPE BUY CALL IN NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of NIFTY 26 SEP 11000 CE @ 138

BEP 11138

MAX PROFIT UNLIMITED ABOVE BEP

MAX LOSS 10350

RATIONALE After significant sell-off in the index, in the last few sessions, it entered into a consolidation mode, finding support near 10750 levels and witnessing a pullback, indicating possibility of prices to scale further higher in the sessions to come. Therefore, one may consider buying a call option in the index.

TYPE BUY PUT IN UBL

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of UBL 26SEP 1300 PE @ 27

BEP 1273

MAX PROFIT UNLIMITED BELOW BEP

MAX LOSS 18900

RATIONALE The stock has witnessed selling pressure with spurt in volume and stock is poised below its long term average. Also in the last session, stock witnessed rise in open interest with fall in price indicating short accumulation in the counter, reaffirming underlying weakness in the counter.

TYPE COVERED CALL IN BAJFINANCE

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of BAJFINANCE SEP FUT @ 3370

SECOND LEG Sell 1 lot of BAJFINANCE SEP 3450 CE @ 65

LBEP 3305

MAX PROFIT 36250

MAX LOSS UNLIMITED BELOW LBEP

RATIONALE From last few sessions, stock is gaining strength and in the last week, stock managed to outperform the underlying index. Also, stock witnessed addition in open interest with rise in price indicating Long accumulation in the counter, depicting possibility of prices to scale higher in the sessions to come.

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7KSTREET - 07TH SEPTEMBER, 2019

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

BPCL 379 6.69 14072400 24.99

APOLLOTYRE 175.25 2.34 10431000 20.77

BSOFT 70.2 6.44 3731100 18.27

IDBI 27.85 3.92 22512000 15.59

RECLTD 150.65 4.44 28512000 12.87

TATAMTRDVR 55 2.80 39870000 12.53

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


CESC 784.6 1.30 514400 -26.85

SRTRANSFIN 994.9 2.98 4389600 -9.20

MRF 58754.3 0.28 17170 -7.14

COALINDIA 198.6 7.50 41087200 -7.06

GLENMARK 390.95 1.73 4234000 -6.92

SAIL 33 5.77 87576000 -6.64

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


UBL 1299.05 -5.32 1234100 49.79

CANBK 191.70 -13.10 14016000 40.95

APOLLOHOSP 1500.20 -0.53 1364500 32.15

MCX 885.25 -9.44 2656700 31.36

HEXAWARE 386.85 -0.05 2289000 23.06

MFSL 405.8 -3.68 2664000 16.78

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


RAYMOND 563.40 -1.11 1807200 -16.18

PETRONET 264.15 -1.01 14475000 -4.51

BERGEPAINT 364.40 -1.29 3744400 -4.22

TATACHEM 579.45 -0.83 1840500 -4.17

SIEMENS 1188.25 -1.16 1034550 -4.13

MARICO 382.50 -2.20 12196600 -2.90

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI

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COMMODITIES

BULLIONGlobal bullion market had witnessed a roller coaster ride wherein prices surged to fresh 6 years high at the beginning of the week on weaker dollar and equity market. Escalating concern over global economic condition on account of trade tension between US and China as well as political uncertainty in UK over Brexit deal attracted safe-haven buying in the yellow metal. Weaker than expected manufacturing sector data which came at 49.1 for the month of August against market expectation and previous number of 51.2 heightened the tension of economic slowdown thereby attracting investment flow into the yellow metal. US Treasury yields fell on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year yield hitting its lowest since July 2016. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was defeated in the parliament for his Brexit without a deal, which prompted him to announce an election for the parliament. Silver has outperformed gold and hit a fresh three year high of $19.75/Oz during mid of the week. A sharp rise in silver prices compared to gold has resulted in fall in the gold/silver ratio to one year low of 79.13 levels. The UK parliament voted on Wednesday preventing its Prime Minister on his Brexit without a deal on 31st October 2019 and rejected his bid to call for election two weeks before the scheduled exit. However, the gains were reversed in last two trading days of the week. Recovery in the dollar against major currencies, as well as the US equity market, pressurized the gold and silver market. Further, ADP non-farm payroll data came at 195,000 beating the market expectation of 148,000 and previous month reading of 142,000. US non-manufacturing sector expanded to 56.4 in the month of August against 53.7 recorded in the month of July. Factory orders also increased by 1.4% in August from 0.5% in the prior month. All these factors supported the currency and equity market thereby pressurizing the bullion market on last two trading sessions. On domestic market, MCX gold futures surged to fresh all-time high while silver futures rallied to cross Rs. 51000 per kg. However, these gains were eroded towards the end of the week.

ENERGYGlobal oil prices are fluctuating due to developments in US & China trade spat which is weighing over the supply side fundamentals. The market also took positive cues after US & China agreed to hold high level meetings in Washington in next month. Crude oil futures edged lower on Friday after prices rose in prior session amid the fall in US crude inventories more than the market expectation of rise. As per EIA, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels from the previous week and total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels last week. Similarly, distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels last week. EIA also reported that US crude oil imports averaged 6.9 million barrels per day last week, up by 976,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Separately, OPEC exports in August rose by 177,000 bpd on month-on-month basis, totaling at 22.95 million bpd resulted by increasing exports from Saudi Arabia. In the major highlights for next week, OPEC JMMC meeting is scheduled on 12th Sep. in Abu Dhabi where OPEC & members will be looking over cartel’s compliance with oil production pact. Currently, OPEC’s production during August rose by around 80,000 bpd contributed largely by Nigeria & Iraq. Meanwhile, Russia has overproduced on its quotas in August and has raised the worries relating to divergence with agreed production cut agreement. OPEC’s JMMC also foresee the global demand to be lower for 2019 citing the global economic slowdown due to US & China trade war. Among natural gas prices, the prices during the week has seen a range bound movement wherein the prices came under pressure after the higher than expected weekly injections in stocks but the warmer weather conditions would support the prices higher in coming weeks.

METALSMetals traded on a recovery note for the week ended on 6th Sep. making reasonable gains amid economical factors viz., better China’s services PMI; easing trade talks between US and China and a developed ADP Non-Farm Payroll. Imports of bauxite at China were around 9.66 million tons in July 2019, which was up 3.8% on a monthly basis, and 32.7 on a yearly note, according to data released by the Customs. Heavy truck sales at China rose for a second straight month in August, by 1.6% compared to 2018 and the sales number currently stands at 73,000 units. China imported a total of 65.988 million tons of bauxite from January to July, up 24.9% from the year. As per China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) retail sales of passenger vehicles on a daily basis averaged 100,000 units during the fourth week of August which was up by 31% from Aug 2018, and this raise shall nullify the fall witnessed in the first three weeks of August. Copper fabrication production at China was at 9.06 million tons in the first half of 2019, up 0.43% from 2018 according to China Nonferrous Metal Fabrication Industry Association. During H12019, production of refined copper from the world’s 20 major copper miners totalled 6.62 million tons of copper which was down 0.2% from H12018. China imported 13,984 tons of tin ore in July and Myanmar was the top contributor which stood around 13,225 tons according to the latest data from customs. Total imported ores stood at 4,200 tons, up 14% from June and down 2% year on year. During the seven month period of 2019, China imported around 28,100 tons of tin metal, down 18% from previous year. Besides, China exported 216 tons of tin ingots in July, down 44% month on month and 38% year on year. In China, September is likely to witness a slight rise in crude steel production during the initial week and

later extend decline in production thus less supportive for the metal. The fixed asset investment made by China is narrowing and prices shall take its cues to be on a stable note or fall marginally.

COTTONDomestic cotton futures traded mixed to lower during the week ended on 6th Sep following muted demand in physical market. Higher production outlook supported by increased area under cotton pressurized prices at futures as well as in physical market. Cotton acreages for year 2019-20 has been higher by 6% till end of Aug as about 125.86 lakh hectares were shown under cotton till 6th Sep compared to 118.10 lakh hectares of prior year as per the data released by Ministry of Agriculture. Cotton production in India is expected to be increased by 14% Y/Y to 342.1 lakh bales of 170 kg each as per the production estimates released by leading weather agency Skymet. At global front, ICE cotton futures rose in fear of crop damage as Hurricane Dorian resurfaced while investors turned optimistic after Washington and Beijing agreed to hold high-level talks next month. USDA rated 47% of cotton crop in US under good to excellent condition against the prior week of 43% and 41% on previous year for corresponding period. Expectation of early commencement of arrivals in northern region and larger crop size in India as well as in US could cap the major gain in cotton prices. At demand side, prices are looking weaker due to tumbling yarn export from India. USDA trimmed consumption forecast for India by 1.9% to 25 million bales of 480 lb each kept production unchanged at 29 million bales. At the same time, export forecast was lowered from 4.4 million bales to 4.2 million bales wherein inventory level increased up to 10.33 million bales.

SOYBEAN NCDEX soybean futures traded down during the week ended on 6th Sep following sluggish demand from millers. Adequate supply in physical market and expectation of commencement of fresh arrivals in coming weeks pressurized prices during last week. Apart from that, improved crop condition in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra and increased area under soybean also kept a lid on prices. Overall sowing of soybean in India has been higher so far as about 112.70 lakh hectares were sown under soybean against the 111.75 lakh hectares of prior year. Meanwhile, Skymet, the leading weather agency in India has lowered its production estimates for year 2019-20 by 12.5% on yearly basis projected at 11.99 million tons compared to 13.69 million tons previous season. At global front, planting of Brazil’s new soybean crop is about to start in most producing regions and output is expected to increase by 5.5% compared with the previous crop to a record 121.41 million tonnes, as per INTL FCStone, major consulting firm in Brazil. Fresh export demand of US soybean lent support to CBOT soybean prices. The US Department of Agriculture said private exporters sold 451,766 tonnes of US soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2019/20 marketing year that began Sept. Malaysian palm oil futures closed slightly lower on Thursday, having hit their weakest level in two weeks after top edible oil importer India raised the tax on refined palm oil from Malaysia to 50% from 45% for six months. The USDA late Tuesday rated 55% of the US soybean crop as good to excellent, unchanged from a week earlier.

GUARGuar seed and gum futures traded on a negative note during the week ended on 6th Sep. and extended its previous week low on second consecutive week due to muted demand amid restricted supply in major belts of Rajasthan. Improved monsoon with heavy rainfall was observed during the second half of previous month which pulled the price downwards. Fall in gum/seed ratio to 1.90 to 2.00 during the week had indicated low buying for gum for the export and industries purpose. Strong INR against the USD may put pressure on gum prices on the futures market. According to the sowing data released by the Ministry of Agriculture govt. Of Rajasthan, the farmers have planted 1773.60 thousand hectares Moong as on 5th Sep. against 1902.30 thousand hectares planted in the same period a year ago and Bajra acreage stood at 3811.30 thousand hectares as on 5th Sep against 3970.80 thousand hectares planted in the same period last year whereas farmers had planted around 3032.80 lakh hectare of guard against the 3065.80 thousand hectares YoY. As per the data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, India exported about 47286 Mt of guar gum during the month of May. Cumulative rainfall in Ganaganar and Hanumangarh was 40% and 29% LPA till 6th Sep.


COMMODITIES

CRUDE

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 30-Aug 6-Sep % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 38656.0 38484.0 -0.4% 39885.00 -3.51% 30107.00 27.82%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 46742.0 47850.0 2.4% 50672.00 -5.57% 34981.00 36.79%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 3952.0 3985.0 0.8% 5669.00 -29.71% 2993.00 33.14%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 165.1 173.8 5.3% 358.70 -51.55% 144.60 20.19%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 437.2 452.3 3.5% 469.35 -3.63% 397.40 13.81%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 150.6 153.8 2.1% 168.00 -8.48% 123.80 24.19%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 178.7 185.5 3.8% 233.65 -20.63% 165.80 11.85%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 1202.1 1234.0 2.7% 1314.80 -6.15% 735.00 67.89%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 135.2 140.4 3.8% 167.80 -16.33% 124.75 12.55%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3825.0 3722.0 -2.7% 3915.00 -4.93% 3149.00 18.20%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 757.0 748.5 -1.1% 784.00 -4.53% 713.60 4.89%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3922.0 3871.0 -1.3% 4244.00 -8.79% 3711.00 4.31%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 552.1 558.0 1.1% 609.80 -8.49% 483.40 15.43%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 5760.0 5726.0 -0.6% 6300.00 -9.11% 4566.00 25.41%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6762.0 6590.0 -2.5% 7360.00 -10.46% 5870.00 12.27%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 16890.0 17050.0 0.9% 21000.00 -18.81% 15140.00 12.62%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 5991.0 6020.0 0.5% 7688.00 -21.70% 4665.00 29.05%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 2844.4 2870.4 0.9% 4265.30 -32.70% 1331.10 115.64%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2062.0 2015.0 -2.3% 2162.00 -6.80% 1770.00 13.84%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4282.0 4129.0 -3.6% 4869.50 -15.21% 4081.00 1.18%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 8368.0 8050.0 -3.8% 10510.00 -23.41% 7978.00 0.90%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 20810.0 19410.0 -6.7% 23300.00 -16.70% 19320.00 0.47%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 3253.0 3268.0 0.5% 3380.00 -3.31% 1595.50 104.83%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1284.8 1277.5 -0.6% 1846.10 -30.80% 1176.00 8.63%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER

GOLD

CRUDE oil September contract futures are trading around 3975/barrel as on 6th Sep. Since last several week, prices are trading within a confined range of 4160 to 3850 levels. At present, prices are trading below the daily 8,13 EMA support levels of 4000-4020 levels. The momentum indicators RSI-14 is trading at a neutral zone of 50. Overall commodity is expected to trade within confined range of 4160-3850 with down side bias. Overall, we recommend building short positions from higher levels.Recommendation: Crude oil September MCX: Sell at 4030-4040 TP 3850 SL 4160

COPPER September contract delivery futures at the MCX platform are trading around Rs 453/kg. Since last several week, prices are trading within a confined range of Rs 460-430 levels. However, in the bigger scenario, bearish trend is in progress, the momentum indicator RSI-14 is trading around 59.00 which has potential to move lower. As per the PVO analysis prices are moving higher since last three consecutive sessions on lower volumes and open interest. Therefore, the recent gain is considered as a mere pullback. Overall we recommend build short position for the coming week.Recommendations: Copper September MCX: Sell at 454-455 TP 435 SL 465

GOLD October contract delivery futures at the MCX platform are trading around Rs 38500/10grams as on 6th Sep. Prices have started falling after making a record high of Rs 39885 during the week. Still the weekly momentum indicator RSI-14 is in overbought zone (80.00) in addition to this, prices have deviated more than 8% from the weekly moving averages. While considering above technical factors, we are anticipating gold futures to extend fall towards the 37500-37600 levels in the coming week. Daily 8 periods EMA is providing immediate resistance around Rs 39100-39200 levels. Overall we recommend building short positions from higher levels.Recommendations: Gold Oct MCX: Sell at 39000-39100 TP 37500 SL 39900


COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX – NATURAL GAS

NEWS DIGEST

• Fears of a recession have driven the price of gold to levels not seen in more than five years. But that’s bringing out the scam artists. They prey on people looking to sell their gold to cash in on the high prices and on people looking to buy gold for its traditional role as a storehouse of value in uncertain times.

• US crude oil headed sharply lower on Friday as investors awaited a jobs report from the world’s largest economy, which could help to quell some investor uneasiness centered on anemic global economic growth, which could translate to weak uptake for crude products.

• The strong Yuan has set stage for Indian rupee to recover from 72.60 to sub 72. Chinese Yuan is trading at 7.14 from 7.18 on news that US-China will resume trade talks. This positive reaction along with positive lift from global equity market has propelled rupee to trade sub 72. We believe strength in rupee may be short-lived as there aren’t any positive factors for our rupee.

• Domestic markets edged higher in Friday’s session on signs of easing tensions between Washington and Beijing, and a strong US economic data that eased fears of an economic slowdown.

• Cottonseed oil cake prices were down by Rs 14.5 to Rs 3,265 per quintal in futures trading on Friday as speculators engaged in trimming their holdings in tandem with a weak trend at the spot market.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

• Gold fell 1% on Friday, putting it on track for its second weekly fall, as robust economic data from US and the planned resumption of trade talks between Washington and Beijing boosted appetite for riskier assets. Spot gold was 0.9% lower at $1,504.86 per ounce as of 0957 GMT, having shed as much as 1% earlier in the session, and retreating from an over six-year peak of $1,557 touched on Wednesday.

• Oil prices edged higher on Friday, with crude benchmarks poised for multi-week gains amid a sharp drawdown in US crude inventories while trade tensions eased after Washington and Beijing agreed to hold high-level talks next month.

• Shanghai tin slipped on Friday but posted its best week on record while prices in London were on course to post their best weekly gain in more than three years, bolstered by production cuts by major producers.

• Malaysian palm oil futures closed slightly lower on Thursday, having hit their weakest level in two weeks after top edible oil importer India raised the tax on refined palm oil from Malaysia to 50% from 45% for six months.

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

22-Aug 24-Aug 26-Aug 28-Aug 30-Aug 1-Sep 3-Sep 5-Sep

$/B

BL

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

21-Aug 23-Aug 25-Aug 27-Aug 29-Aug 31-Aug 2-Sep 4-Sep 6-Sep

$/M

MB

tu

3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

4000

4100

4200

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

23-Aug 26-Aug 27-Aug 28-Aug 29-Aug 30-Aug 2-Sep 3-Sep 4-Sep 5-Sep

Volume Open Interest Price (INR/Bbl)

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

23-Aug 27-Aug 29-Aug 2-Sep 4-Sep

Open Interest Volume Price (INR/MMBTU)


COMMODITIES

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 335850 313275 -22575 -6.72%

Zinc 66975 65625 -1350 -2.02%

Aluminium 919050 923225 4175 0.45%

Lead 77525 76575 -950 -1.23%

Nickel 152604 154956 2352 1.54%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 143876 162059 18183 12.64%

Zinc 72062 79794 7732 10.73%

Aluminium 361977 352399 -9578 -2.65%

*Until Wednesday, (Chinese market was closed last week)

GLOBAL STOCK POSITION (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 30204 30600 396 1.31%

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 30-Aug 06-Sep % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1757.00 1791.00 1.94%

Copper LME 3M 5652.00 5840.00 3.33%

Lead LME 3M 2028.50 2052.50 1.18%

Nickel LME 3M 17905.00 17495.00 -2.29%

Zinc LME 3M 2220.00 2331.50 5.02%

Gold CME Aug 1538.10 1538.10 0.00%

Silver CME July 14.28 14.28 0.00%

WTI Crude oil CME June 55.16 56.17 1.83%

Natural Gas CME June 2.28 2.44 6.80%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 30-Aug 06-Sep % change

Soybean CBOT July 881.50 875.50 -0.68%

Soy oil CBOT July 27.98 27.98 0.00%

CPO BMD Aug 2027.00 2027.00 0.00%

Cotton ICE July 66.23 66.23 0.00%

-6.73%

-3.80%

-3.57%

-2.69%

-2.54%

-2.28%

-1.30%

-1.12%

-0.59%

-0.57%

-0.49%

-0.22%

0.46%

0.48%

0.84%

0.91%

0.95%

1.07%

2.16%

2.30%

2.56%

3.31%

3.85%

3.86%

5.39%

-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00%

Cotton

Guar Gum

Guar Seed

Soybean

Turmeric

Wheat

RM Seed

Soy Oil

Castor Seed

Mentha Oil

Gold

Barley

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Dhaniya

Crude Oil

Cardamom

Jeera

CPO

Lead

Silver

Nickel

Copper

Aluminum

Zinc

Natural Gas

Kharif sowing update as on 6th September 2019

Crops Normal Area

Normal of correspo-

pnding week

Area Sown Increase(+)/Decrease(-) Over

2019 2018

Normal of corre-

sponding week

2018

Rice 396.25 372.28 365.69 376.18 -6.59 -10.49

Pulses 119.89 123.06 130.04 132.63 6.98 -2.59

Arhar 43 42.98 44.95 44.76 1.97 0.19

Urdbean 30.77 33.74 37.52 38.18 3.78 -0.66

Moongbean 27.5 29.18 30.48 33.73 1.3 -3.25

Kulthi 2.19 0.6 0.45 0.49 -0.15 -0.04

Other pulses 16.44 16.55 16.65 15.46 0.1 1.19

Coarse cereals 188.39 176.84 175.27 172.5 -1.57 2.77

Jowar 21.61 18.39 16.4 17.49 -1.99 -1.09

Bajra 74.39 66.91 65.62 65.02 -1.29 0.6

Ragi 11.53 9.5 9.08 7.67 -0.42 1.41

Small millets 6.18 4.9 4.52 4.56 -0.38 -0.04

Maize 74.68 77.14 79.64 77.72 2.5 1.92

Oilseeds 181.96 177.08 173.34 173.55 -3.74 -0.21

Groundnut 42.44 39.93 37.51 39.68 -2.42 -2.17

Soybean 111.49 111.24 112.71 111.79 1.47 0.92

Sunflower 1.84 1.42 0.99 1.08 -0.43 -0.09

Sesamum 14.13 14.97 13.12 13.69 -1.85 -0.57

Niger 2.41 1.37 1.39 0.84 0.02 0.55

Castor 9.66 8.16 7.64 6.46 -0.52 1.18

Sugarcane 48.32 50.19 52.45 55.51 2.26 -3.06

Jute & Mesta 7.87 7.39 6.84 7.2 -0.55 -0.36

Cotton 120.93 115.73 125.86 118.1 10.13 7.76

Total 1063.61 1022.58 1029.5 1035.7 6.91 -6.17

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India


USD/INR

USDINR traded negative during the week, it made a high of 72.40 and low of 71.59. The RSI is at 64.22. Moving average of 32 is at 70.08 and 55 is at 69.75. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, recommend Selling at 72.00 TP 71.00 SL 72.50

EUR/INR

EURINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 79.46 and low of 78.63. The RSI is trading at 53.07. Moving average of 32 is at 78.70 and 55 is at 78.98. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, recommend Selling at 79.50 TP 78.60 SL 80.00.

GBP/INR

GBPINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 88.73 and low of 86.40. The RSI is trading at 50.62. Moving average of 32 is at 88.39 and 55 is at 89.08. The trend is looking neutral for the week. Hence, recommend Sell on rise at 87.50 TP 88.50 SL 87.00.

JPY/INR

JPYINR traded negative during the week, it made a high of 68.23 and low of 66.88. The RSI is at 66.73. Moving average of 32 is at 64.49 and 55 is at 63.77. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, recommend Selling at 67.30-67.50 TP 66.50 SL 68.00.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

USD/INR closed for the week at 71.72 after hitting weekly high of 72.40 and low of 71.60. Sensex was up 337 points at 36,981, while Nifty was up 98 points at 10,946. India’s GDP grew 5 % in April-June 2019 confirming fears of a slowdown as the government announced a second set of measures to boost the economy. GDP growth was 8% in the same quarter of 2018-19. India’s gross GST collections slipped below Rs. 1 lakh crore to Rs. 98,202 crore in August. RBI has made it mandatory for banks to link their new floating rate for home, auto and MSME loans to an external benchmark from 1st October, so that the borrowers can enjoy lower rate of interest. Volatility index, India VIX which measures market’s expectation of near-term volatility, rose more than 30% in just 2 months. Euro has been pressured by expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting on 12th Sep. Upcoming ECB policy meeting poses some upside risk for the Euro. It will be difficult for the ECB to meet and exceed market expectations for aggressive easing. UK lawmakers approved a motion to seize control of parliamentary time to try to block Britain leaving the European Union with no deal. China’s Ministry of Commerce said that the leaders of the US and China held a phone call and agreed to meet in early October for another round of negotiations. Some progress in the political crises in Britain and Hong Kong boosted investors’ confidence. British pound moved higher led by hopes for a Brexit delay. British Pound hovered around a one-week high as another parliamentary defeat for Prime Minister Boris Johnson made investors hopeful that a no-deal Brexit could be avoided. US trade deficit narrowed slightly in July, but the gap with China surged to a six-month high. For now, 72.40 seems to be strong resistance for the USD and as long as it holds below 72 a move towards 71.20/71.30 is likely.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• China has lodged a complaint against the US over import duties at the World Trade Organization.

• India’s GDP grew 5 % in April-June 2019 confirming fears of a slowdown as the government announced a second set of measures to boost the economy. GDP growth was 8 % in the same quarter of 2018-19.

• India’s gross GST collections slipped below Rs. 1 lakh crore to Rs. 98,202 crore in August.

• US factory activity shrank in August for the first time since 2016.

• US President Donald Trump warned he would be “tougher” on Beijing in a second term if trade talks dragged on.

• UK lawmakers approved a motion to seize control of parliamentary time to try to block Britain leaving the European Union with no deal.

• Australian economy grew 0.5% in the June quarter 2019 and 1.4% through the year.

• China’s Ministry of Commerce said that the leaders of the US and China held a phone call and agreed to meet in early October for another round of negotiations.

• Some progress in the political crises in Britain and Hong Kong boosted investors’ confidence.

• British pound hovered around a one-week high as another parliamentary defeat for Prime Minister Boris Johnson made investors hopeful that a no-deal Brexit could be avoided.

• US trade deficit narrowed slightly in July but the gap with China surged to a six-month high.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 71.98 72.40 71.60 71.72

EURINR 78.11 79.46 78.09 79.06

GBPINR 86.82 88.72 86.18 88.24

JPYINR 67.39 68.38 66.85 67.05


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Date Local Time Country Indicator Name Period Pol Prefix Unit Prior

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom GDP Est 3M/3M Jul 2019 -0.1 Percent -0.2

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom GDP Estimate MM Jul 2019 0.1 Percent 0

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom GDP Estimate YY Jul 2019 Percent 1

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Services MM Jul 2019 Percent 0

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Services YY Jul 2019 Percent 1.4

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Industrial Output MM Jul 2019 -0.1 Percent -0.1

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Industrial Output YY Jul 2019 -1.1 Percent -0.6

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Manufacturing Output MM Jul 2019 -0.1 Percent -0.2

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Manufacturing Output YY Jul 2019 -1 Percent -1.4

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Construction O/P Vol MM Jul 2019 Percent -0.7

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Construction O/P Vol YY Jul 2019 Percent -0.2

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance GBP Jul 2019 Bln GBP -7.01

9 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Goods Trade Bal. Non-EU Jul 2019 Bln GBP -0.186

9 Sep 14:00 Euro Zone Sentix Index Sep 2019 Diff.Idx -13.7

9 Sep 19:30 United States Employment Trends Aug 2019 Index 111

9 Sep 0:30 United States Consumer Credit Jul 2019 16 Bln USD 14.6

10 Sep 7:00 China (Mainland) PPI YY Aug 2019 -0.9 Percent -0.3

10 Sep 7:00 China (Mainland) CPI YY Aug 2019 2.6 Percent 2.8

10 Sep 7:00 China (Mainland) CPI MM Aug 2019 0.5 Percent 0.4

10 Sep 7:30 China (Mainland) Total Social Financing Aug 2019 1550 Bln CNY 1010

10 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Unem Chng Aug 2019 Thou Person 28

10 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate Jul 2019 3.9 Percent 3.9

10 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Employment Change Jul 2019 Thou Person 115

10 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY Jul 2019 3.7 Percent 3.7

10 Sep 14:00 United Kingdom Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) Jul 2019 3.8 Percent 3.9

10 Sep 15:30 United States NFIB Business Optimism Idx Aug 2019 Index 104.7

10 Sep 18:25 United States Redbook MM W 07 Sep Percent -1

10 Sep 18:25 United States Redbook YY W 07 Sep Percent 6.5

10 Sep 19:30 United States JOLTS Job Openings Jul 2019 Mln Person 7.348

10 Sep : China (Mainland) M2 Money Supply YY Aug 2019 8.1 Percent 8.1

10 Sep : China (Mainland) New Yuan Loans Aug 2019 1200 Bln CNY 1060

10 Sep : China (Mainland) Outstanding Loan Growth Aug 2019 12.4 Percent 12.6

10 Sep : China (Mainland) FDI (YTD) Aug 2019 Percent 7.3

10 Sep : India Trade Deficit Govt -USD Aug 2019 13.55 Bln USD 13.43

10 Sep : India Imports - USD Aug 2019 Bln USD 39.76

10 Sep : India Exports - USD Aug 2019 Bln USD 26.33

11 Sep 16:30 United States MBA Mortgage Applications W 06 Sep Percent -3.1

11 Sep 16:30 United States Mortgage Market Index W 06 Sep Index 558.5

11 Sep 16:30 United States MBA Purchase Index W 06 Sep Index 242.6

11 Sep 16:30 United States Mortgage Refinance Index W 06 Sep Index 2367.2

11 Sep 16:30 United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate W 06 Sep Percent 3.87

11 Sep 17:00 India M3 Money Supply W 30 Aug Percent 10.2

11 Sep 18:00 United States PPI Final Demand YY Aug 2019 1.7 Percent 1.7

11 Sep 18:00 United States PPI Final Demand MM Aug 2019 0.1 Percent 0.2

11 Sep 18:00 United States PPI exFood/Energy YY Aug 2019 2.2 Percent 2.1

11 Sep 18:00 United States PPI exFood/Energy MM Aug 2019 0.2 Percent -0.1

11 Sep 18:00 United States PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr YY Aug 2019 Percent 1.7

11 Sep 18:00 United States PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr MM Aug 2019 Percent -0.1

11 Sep 19:30 United States Wholesale Invt(y), R MM Jul 2019 0.2 Percent 0.2

11 Sep 19:30 United States Wholesale Sales MM Jul 2019 Percent -0.3

11 Sep 20:30 United States TR IPSOS PCSI Sep 2019 Diff.Idx 60.59

11 Sep 4:31 United Kingdom RICS Housing Survey Aug 2019 Balance -9

12 Sep 14:30 Euro Zone Industrial Production MM Jul 2019 0.1 Percent -1.6

12 Sep 14:30 Euro Zone Industrial Production YY Jul 2019 -1.2 Percent -2.6

12 Sep 15:30 United Kingdom TR IPSOS PCSI Sep 2019 Diff.Idx 48.25

12 Sep 17:15 Euro Zone ECB Refinancing Rate Sep 2019 0 Percent 0

12 Sep 17:15 Euro Zone ECB Deposit Rate Sep 2019 -0.5 Percent -0.4

12 Sep 17:30 India CPI Inflation YY Aug 2019 3.3 Percent 3.15

CURRENCY


12 Sep 17:30 India Industrial Output YY Jul 2019 2.3 Percent 2

12 Sep 17:30 India Cumulative Ind. Output Jul 2019 Percent 3.6

12 Sep 17:30 India Manufacturing Output Jul 2019 Percent 1.2

12 Sep 18:00 United States Core CPI MM, SA Aug 2019 0.2 Percent 0.3

12 Sep 18:00 United States Core CPI YY, NSA Aug 2019 2.3 Percent 2.2

12 Sep 18:00 United States CPI Index, NSA Aug 2019 Index 256.571

12 Sep 18:00 United States Core CPI Index, SA Aug 2019 Index 263.57

12 Sep 18:00 United States CPI MM, SA Aug 2019 0.1 Percent 0.3

12 Sep 18:00 United States CPI YY, NSA Aug 2019 1.8 Percent 1.8

12 Sep 18:00 United States Real Weekly Earnings MM Aug 2019 Percent -0.3

12 Sep 18:00 United States CPI MM NSA Aug 2019 Percent 0.17

12 Sep 18:00 United States CPI Index SA Aug 2019 Index 256.16

12 Sep 20:30 United States Cleveland Fed CPI Aug 2019 Percent 0.3

12 Sep 23:30 United States Federal Budget,$ Aug 2019 Bln USD -120

13 Sep 7:30 China (Mainland) TR IPSOS PCSI Sep 2019 Diff.Idx 71.26

13 Sep 7:30 India TR IPSOS PCSI Sep 2019 Diff.Idx 61.36

13 Sep 14:30 Euro Zone Eurostat Trade NSA, Eur Jul 2019 Bln EUR 20.6

13 Sep 14:30 Euro Zone Labour Costs YY Q2 2019 Percent 2.4

13 Sep 14:30 Euro Zone Wages In Euro Zone Q2 2019 Percent 2.5

13 Sep 17:00 India Trade Balance-RBI Q2 2019 Bln USD -35.2

13 Sep 17:00 India C/A Bal. $ Q2 2019 Bln USD -4.6

13 Sep 17:00 India Balance Payments $ Q2 2019 Bln USD 0.4

13 Sep 17:00 India Current Account/GDP (Q) Q2 2019 Percent -0.7

13 Sep 18:00 United States Import Prices MM Aug 2019 -0.4 Percent 0.2

13 Sep 18:00 United States Export Prices MM Aug 2019 -0.3 Percent 0.2

13 Sep 18:00 United States Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Aug 2019 0.3 Percent 1

13 Sep 18:00 United States Retail Sales MM Aug 2019 0.3 Percent 0.7

13 Sep 18:00 United States Retail Ex Gas/Autos Aug 2019 Percent 0.9

13 Sep 18:00 United States Retail Control Aug 2019 0.4 Percent 1

13 Sep 18:00 United States Retail Sales YoY Aug 2019 Percent 3.45

13 Sep 19:30 United States Business Inventories MM Jul 2019 0.1 Percent 0

13 Sep 19:30 United States Retail Inventories Ex-Auto Rev Jul 2019 Percent 0.3

13 Sep 19:30 United States U Mich Sentiment Prelim Sep 2019 94 Index 89.8

13 Sep 19:30 United States U Mich Conditions Prelim Sep 2019 Index 105.3

13 Sep 19:30 United States U Mich Expectations Prelim Sep 2019 Index 79.9

13 Sep 19:30 United States U Mich 1Yr Inf Prelim Sep 2019 Percent 2.7

13 Sep 19:30 United States U Mich 5-Yr Inf Prelim Sep 2019 Percent 2.6

6 Sep 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Low Employment Final QQ 0.2% Percent Percent

6 Sep 2019 14:30 Euro Zone High GDP Revised QQ 0.2% 0.2% Percent Percent

6 Sep 2019 14:30 Euro Zone High GDP Revised YY 1.1% 1.1% Percent Percent

6 Sep 2019 15:15 Uk Low BBA Mortgage Rate 4.30% Percent Percent

6 Sep 2019 17:00 India Low FX Reserves, USD 429.05B USD USD

6 Sep 2019 18:00 USA High Non-Farm Payrolls 164k 159k Person Person

6 Sep 2019 18:00 USA Medium Private Payrolls 148k 150k Person Person

6 Sep 2019 18:00 USA Low Manufacturing Payrolls 16k 9k Person Person

6 Sep 2019 18:00 USA Low Government Payrolls 16k Person Person

6 Sep 2019 18:00 USA High Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.7% Percent Percent

6 Sep 2019 18:00 USA Medium Average Earnings MM 0.3% 0.3% Percent Percent

6 Sep 2019 18:00 USA High Average Earnings YY 3.2% 3.1% Percent Percent

6 Sep 2019 18:00 USA Medium Average Workweek Hrs 34.3 34.4 Hour Hour

6 Sep 2019 18:00 USA Low Labor Force Partic 63.0% Percent Percent

6 Sep 2019 18:00 USA Low U6 Underemployment 7.0% Percent Percent

CURRENCY


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