8/14/2019 Rob Gifford on China

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Rob Gifford Speaks on China at Columbia

By Maile Cannon November 13, 2009

With neon-glowing city skylines chokedwith construction cranes, new highways heavingwith fleets of privately-owned cars and annualdouble-digit economic growth rates, many China-watchers see the country as a rising dragon on theother side of the Pacific, primed to dominate theglobal scene, and soon. Rob Gifford, former Chinacorrespondent for National Public Radio, doesn'tdisagree, but after six years of reporting on theground, he sees the People's Republic more like aJenga tower of wooden blocks: pull out the wrongone and the whole thing could come downcrashing.

The greatest task of the Chinesegovernment is keeping order and maintainingcohesion, Gifford told a packed room at ColumbiaUniversity's School of International and PublicAffairs today. Economic reforms starting in the1980s have lifted 400 million people out of  poverty, but that leaves 800 million more, mostlyin the countryside, who aren't get their slice of thenew money pie and this threatens the legitimacy of the single-party government ruled by the ChineseCommunist Party, he said.

Without a legal system where ordinary people can effectively vent their frustrations, Chinamust strike a balance between giving its peopleenough opportunity to succeed individuallywithout losing its total grip of power.

“People are willing to put up with a lot aslong as their lives get a bit better everyday,”Gifford said.

That tightrope is getting harder to walk,Gifford said, especially as the country's export- based economy is cooling in response to a globalslow-down. Large numbers of unemployedcitizens, coupled with existing frustrations caused by unfair land seizures, poor access to healthcareand basic education and corruption by local levelgovernment officials might be enough to set off areal challenge the one-party state.

“China is more brittle and more fragilethan it appears,” Gifford said.

A sudden transition to democracy is notthe solution, however, he added. Political reform

must be slow, controlled and consistent, Giffordsaid, especially given China's size and population.

“We're afraid of chaos,” Gifford said of theChinese, “look at the Soviet Union.” He also saidthat the West has lost a certain amount of ability to push the values of a completely open market,giving the devastating effects of the recent WallStreet credit crunch on the United States, as well asthe world economy.

Gifford is optimistic about the China'sgovernment's ability to manage the world's most populous country, at least in the short term, hesaid.

“The Chinese government is very smart,”he said, noting that it is careful to maintain a positive public image. The recent economicstimulus package of more than $500 billion is anexample of this. He also said the government must be credited for getting so many people out of  poverty; the last twenty years has seen the firstmiddle class in the history of China.

Gifford maintained that change toward amore open society will happen organically, and thecountry is starting to show signs of that. Eachsmall town in China has an Internet cafe and thatalone means people are becoming more savvyabout what is happening in other parts of the

massive country, and the outside world, despitegovernment censorship.

Growing economic development, as wellas greater exchange with the rest of world hascreated a nascent civil society and individualinterests are replacing old Marxist-Leninist values.

“You can find anything in China that youcan find in New York. The nightclubs are full, thechurches are full,” he said. “Nobody believes incommunism anymore.”